The attribution problem - How marketers assess ad performance in a fractured digital environment - Digiday
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+ The attribution problem How marketers assess ad performance in a fractured digital environment
What’s inside 3 Introduction 4 Attribution in its ideal form 5 Putting the last touch first 6 The first touch 7 The multi-touch compromise 8 The offline element 9 Metrics, metrics, metrics 10 The all-important KPI 12 The bottom line The attribution problem 2
Introduction It seems obvious: Marketers constant access to scores of data signals SURVEY SNAPSHOT that reveal all aspects of consumer need to know which of their behavior—but organizing that data, and marketing efforts actually making sense of consumers’ increasingly worked. This is much easier non-linear paths to purchase, is anything 1. Last-touch attribution, which focuses on which channel a customer was active said than done. That’s why but straightforward. As a result, most on directly before a conversion, is used by brands have only scratched the surface advertising “attribution” has when it comes to managing attribution a plurality of marketers for both online (41 percent) and offline (31 percent) channels. become increasingly vital to and identifying effective campaign tactics. Nonetheless, the largest contingent of their efforts. respondents (44 percent) personally preferred We surveyed 197 brands and agencies, the last-touch approach, which focuses on when and where a customer was first exposed Simply defined, attribution is the process along with 44 publishers, in January 2018 to a brand. of determining which advertisements to explore how expectations vary when and media channels are responsible it comes to attribution. We also dove 2. Fifty-two percent of respondents said for driving ROI. More and more, into which KPIs marketers use to measure that sales metrics were most effective in organizations are challenging their campaign success, and which strategies evaluating campaign performance, while 36 marketing teams to provide consistent, most effectively follow customers percent pointed to traffic metrics such as accurate metrics linked to meaningful through their journeys across devices and average time spent on a page. Nonetheless, 50 percent wanted a stronger focus on traffic business results. channels. Finally, we interviewed industry metrics. experts from Diane von Furstenberg, But challenges abound. Today’s brands Huge, Essence Global, 3. Offline attribution remains crucial; only and agencies market across an immense Fusion Media Group and one percent of respondents said it wasn’t number of channels and platforms, Discover Financial. important to them. both online and offline. This gives them 4. There’s a disconnect between brands and agencies when it comes to identifying key KPIs. A sizable 38 percent of marketers said they don’t feel completely aligned with their partners on delivering consistent and accurate metrics. The attribution problem 3
Attribution in its ideal form Marketers can drill down into insights from attribution tools in multiple ways. Some marketers work with web analytics platforms, some establish their own internal attribution models and some choose to focus on a handful of key metrics. A significant majority of respondents (63 percent) said that the ideal state of attribution means being able to track customers throughout the full 63% marketing funnel. That’s impossible to do, of course, unless marketers can consistently track the customer throughout their entire purchase journey, from building brand awareness all the way down to conversion. Marketers would also need to know what considerations customers take into account along the way and which of those considerations ultimately led to a conversion. That’s a tall order. of marketers say the ideal state of attribution means being able to track customers throughout the full marketing funnel The attribution problem 4
Putting the last touch first As much as they’d like to, most marketers director of data science for the digital 41% aren’t able to track customers throughout agency Huge. “The reason why so many the entire funnel. According to our survey, people prefer last-touch is just because the “last-touch” approach is the most it’s instant [...]That really misses the of marketers are most commonly widely-used attribution method. With the whole cumulative impact of sequential last-touch model, marketers simply take messaging, multiple channels and all using the “last-touch” method for a look at which channel a customer was virtual brand perceptions.” their online attribution active on directly before a conversion. For instance, if a user clicks on a Facebook Actually, a lot of the marketers who ad and immediately buys the product, use last-touch attribution would prefer - B U T - that ad gets full credit for influencing a different approach. When it comes the purchase. All told, 41 percent of to digital attribution strategy, most respondents said that the last-touch respondents (44 percent) said a first- method was their most commonly used touch attribution model was more useful attribution approach for online channels. for measuring digital campaigns. (The A narrower plurality, 31 percent, said last-touch model still won out when it 44% they most commonly used the last-touch came to offline attribution, with a 43 method for offline attribution as well. percent plurality.) Clearly, there’s a disconnect between what marketers There’s a problem here: Many industry are doing and what they think is most say that a “first-touch” model experts say the last touch approach can effective. “We get addicted to fast is more useful for measuring be overly simplistic. “Last-touch, which results,” said Horn. digital campaigns is where most people are starting, is wrong,” said Michael Horn, managing The attribution problem 5
The first touch As its name would suggest, the “first-touch” model isolates when and where a customer was first exposed to a brand. “That first click really shows you where your brand power is,” said Conor Shea, who served as managing director of global marketing “ at Discover Financial until shortly after being interviewed for this report. The first touch, in other words, is part of a potential customer’s research process; it works as an affirmation tool to confirm or deny the customer’s initial thoughts on a brand. [The first click] shows “It shows where people are first having a touchpoint with your brand,” said Shea. Needless to say, it’s important for brands to establish a where people are first positive first connection with a lead; a bad impression may mean there’s having a touchpoint with no second chance for the brand to redeem itself. your brand. Conor Shea former managing director of global marketing, Discover Financial The attribution problem 6
The multi-touch compromise A “multi-touch” model—one that analyzes Either way, marketers need to gather customer behavior throughout the journey a hefty sample of conversions and to purchase—provides a lot more data impressions, and then they need to do a than first-touch or last-touch alone. But it’s whole lot of math. The process can take as also more labor-intensive and takes much long as two or three months—and it can longer to produce actionable insights. be as long as six months to a year before marketers can actually implement the First, marketers have to decide what, findings into a future campaign. “Multi- exactly, they’d like to study. Maybe touch is never a fast solution,” said Huge’s that means diving into how customers’ Horn. interactions with display ads differed from, or were complemented by, their True. But it also provides for a much interactions with search ads. Or maybe richer data set. it means formulating an algorithm to determine what the incremental contribution for each interaction was. The attribution problem 7
The offline element However sophisticated and accurate sales staff to capture personally identifying today’s digital attribution tools are, the information,” said Michael Crooks, DVF’s offline element remains crucial. In fact, senior director of global marketing. only one percent of respondents said that offline attribution wasn’t important Of course, “offline” attribution often to them. Offline attribution relies on data needs an online element. By collecting The biggest mistake that marketers collect from non-digital customers’ personal information in-store, a company can make sources, often at the point of sale. and then using that information to track whether that customer saw a specific [...] is to underestimate “The biggest mistake a company can digital ad before walking through make [...] is to underestimate the value of the doors, brands can develop an the value of offline offline conversions and offline interaction,” accurate sense of whether or not their conversions and said Felipe Araujo, senior director of ads were effective. e-commerce at the fashion brand Diane offline interaction. von Furstenberg (DVF). Plus, once they assemble a large database of personally identifiable info, brands Felipe Araujo First and foremost, that means collecting can target customers more precisely senior director of e-commerce, basic sales data: what the customer with future ads. Just as importantly, the Diane von Furstenberg bought and where they bought it. But information helps marketers build up brands often dive far deeper, collecting an accurate picture of which types of information such as names, email customers—based on age, gender and so addresses, phone numbers, social media on—are most receptive to which ads. profiles or even demographic info such as age or gender. “It’s very important for The attribution problem 8
Metrics, metrics, metrics 52% Marketers use a variety of metrics Nonetheless, 50 percent of at last-touch attribution. Though to measure the success of their marketers most commonly use the last-touch model tends to campaigns, and those metrics are traffic metrics to assess the gloss over important elements of said sales metrics such as often the fundamental building performance of their digital an overall campaign, it does shed conversion rates and return on blocks of their attribution models. campaigns. In fact, 50 percent said some light on what ultimately ad spend (ROAS) were the most that they wanted their brand or drove sales—more so, in any More than half of marketers (52 agency partner to place a stronger event, than the first-touch model. effective metrics when evaluating percent) said that sales metrics focus on traffic metrics, while only a campaign’s success such as conversion rates and 17 percent of marketers wanted a A multi-touch model, of course, return on ad spend (ROAS) stronger focus on sales metrics. would incorporate a healthy were the most effective when mix of sales and traffic metrics, evaluating a campaign’s success. Ultimately, marketers need to take eliminating the blind spots that a hard look at what their goals arise from focusing on just one Traffic metrics (such as unique are. If their primary aim is to build or the other. But marketers often visitors, click-through rates and brand awareness, they’re likely to don’t have the time to focus on average time spent on a page) find great value in the first-touch everything at once. came in second with 36 percent. approach, which allows them to 36% It’s not hard to see why decent zero in on the the moments when That’s why it’s crucial for them traffic metrics can be appealing: customers first interact with the to figure out what metrics they Brands and agencies want to know brand. Traffic metrics factor heavily need to focus on before they craft that their ads are actually being into first-touch attribution models. their attribution models. As it said traffic metrics such viewed. But marketers should be stands, there’s often a discrepancy as CTRs and average time on wary of relying on those metrics On the other hand, when brands between where marketers see value and what they’re actually page were the most effective too heavily, since they don’t want to focus on concrete sales necessarily indicate consumer metrics—on whether their ads doing. metrics when evaluting purchases or even engagement drove conversions or overall ROI— campaign success with the brand. it doesn’t hurt to take a close look The attribution problem 9
The all-important KPI Brands and agencies don’t “In defining KPI, we say, ‘Let’s figure out the one most important thing that always see eye-to-eye on we’re trying to accomplish with this which metrics should campaign,’” said DVF’s Felipe Araujo. be factored into their “‘Is this a campaign to drive brand attribution models. awareness? To drive traffic? To do X?’ And then we measure that.” Indeed, a sizable 38 percent of marketers said they don’t feel completely aligned Anant Mathur, EVP and global head of analytics at Essence Global, had similar advice. “People are often at loggerheads 38% with their brand or agency partner in terms of the KPI that they are looking when it comes to delivering consistent at,” he said. “The first order, then, is to and accurate metrics. get them to focus on what actually drives economic value.” For a news site, for But before brands and agencies can instance, a “sale” means driving up ad of marketers say they identify their ideal attribution models, revenue by getting people to engage first they need to isolate which KPI they don’t feel completely aligned with your content; the site visit is the should focus on. That’s not always easy conversion event. But if you’re on the with their brand or agency partner to figure out, but it’s monumentally brand side of that equation, selling, when it comes to delivering important to try. say, handbags, it’ll probably make consistent and accurate metrics more sense to focus on traditional sales metrics. The attribution problem 10
It can be tough, of course, to stick with just So which KPIs are actually one KPI. But trying to do so “can be helpful being used? at the briefing stage,” said Lindsey Eckert, vp of media strategy at Fusion Media A slim plurality of marketers (31 percent) Group, which owns sites such as The said that, if they could align with their Onion and Deadspin. Brands, agencies, brand or agency partners on a single and even publishers must be aligned on KPI, their attribution models would best their ultimate objectives if they want their be served by a stronger focus on sales “ campaigns to succeed. metrics like conversions and ROAS. But a nearly identical number of respondents “When we get our RFPs in, there are (30 percent) said that bounce rate was the usually several different metrics,” said most important KPI to focus on. Coming Eckert. “When we’re briefing our creative in at a close third was click-through rate When we get our RFPs in, teams, we really have to narrow it down to (27 percent). That’s not exactly a runaway the one key thing, the one key takeaway victory for any individual choice. there are usually several that we need to communicate.” In addition, most marketers weren’t different metrics. When we’re When marketers fail to identify a clearly- exactly confident about what they briefing our creative teams, defined KPI at the outset of a campaign, wanted out of their KPIs in the first place. they wind up being stuck with KPIs that are A whopping 82 percent cited the need we really have to narrow it irrelevant to their business models. Just as to organize data as the biggest reason down to the one key thing, damaging, it becomes nearly impossible why they’re not using their preferred KPIs to formulate an attribution model that more consistently. Marketers may want the one key takeaway that effectively identifies the successes and failures of their campaigns. Without to get into the weeds, but they don’t necessarily have the time or resources we need to communicate.” narrowing things down to one KPI at the to make it a reality. outset, marketers will leave themselves Lindsey Eckert scrambling to overanalyze every vp of media strategy, Fusion Media Group conceivable data point, without a clear idea of what they’re actually trying to get from the data. The attribution problem 11
The bottom line Brands, agencies and even publishers are struggling to identify which metrics should be factored into effective attribution models. And frequently enough, they disagree with each other on the best approach. So at the beginning of any given campaign, marketers would be wise to align with their partners on a clearly defined KPI. First, they’ll need to take a holistic look at their business models and figure out which goals are most important. Here are some best practices to help you set more accurate and effective goals for future campaigns: 1 2 3 4 5 The last-touch approach can Marketers should place a A multi-touch attribution Don’t neglect offline Marketers should agree be useful when analyzing heavy emphasis on first- model can be extremely attribution: It’s still with their partners on one basic sales metrics, but touch attribution when time-consuming to assemble, extremely important, clearly defined KPI at the it often omits important they’re focusing on brand but it’s worth the investment especially when combined beginning of any campaign. information. Marketers awareness. if marketers have the with online data. should rarely base their necessary resources: It offers entire attribution strategy them the richest possible around the last-touch data set. model. Only by establishing clearly-defined objectives at the outset can marketers hope to accurately assess the success or failure of a campaign through any of their attribution efforts. Then, armed with the attribution model that best suits their campaign goals, marketers will gain a greater understanding of their customers, honing and refining their process and results for future campaigns. That’s a surefire recipe for maximizing ROI. The attribution problem 12
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