The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...

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The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
The 2020 Elections
        &
  Private Equity
             Brett Palmer
              President
  Small Business Investor Alliance
The Voice of Private Equity in Washington
             www.SBIA.org
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
2020 Election Results: Topline
  Chamber/Office                            Control before election      Control in 2021

   House of
                                               Democrats                 Democrats
Representatives

    Senate                                    Republicans               Not yet called

   President                         Republicans (Trump)              Democrats (Biden)

             S O U R C E Associated Press
             AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
Presidential Tight States
 (But there is no honest question who won)
                                          306                                            232

                                                          270 needed to win

10
                                                     20
                               16
          4                                                                   29               18

                          6

                                                11
10                                                              15                        6
                                                                                                     38
                     16
                                     NE-02: 1                                 ME-02: 1

     *Outline reflects 2016 winner
                                                                       KEY                     Rep    Dem
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
Key Senate Swing States
                                                        48                         2                               50

        Lean Democrat                                                          Toss Up                                   Lean Republican

                                                                                                         SC             AL          AK
                                                                                         IA
                     MI                                      GA-II    GA-III

                 AZ
                                                                 NC              ME
                                                                                                    MT                  KS
                                                                                                                                           TX

                CO

*Outline reflects party of current officeholder
                                                                                                         NOT YET
GA-II = Perdue (R) incumbent                                                                  KEY        CALLED         Rep         Dem
GA-III = Loeffler (R) incumbent

  S O U R C E Associated Press; Cook Political Report
  AP DATA AS OF           11/9/2020 8:20 AM
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
2020 US Senate Results
           Democrat hold            Democrat gain                    Not yet called         Republican gain               Republican hold            No election

           2020 election             11            2 2 1        19                                         65

                           WA
                                                                                                                                                ME
                                                     MT                  ND                                                              VT

                      OR                                                              MN                                                        NH
                                    ID                                   SD                      WI                                    NY
                                                      WY                                                    MI
                                                                                       IA                                         PA
                                                                           NE                                                                         MA
                               NV
                                         UT                                                                          OH
                                                                                                      IL   IN
                                                           CO                                                             WV                          RI
                   CA                                                                                                             VA
                                                                              KS           MO
                                                                                                                KY                                    CT
                                                                                                                                  NC
                                                                                                           TN                                         NJ
                                    AZ                                          OK
                                                          NM                               AR                                SC
                                                                                                                                                      DE
                                                                                                  MS       AL        GA-II
                                                                                                                                       GA-III         MD
                                                                          TX                LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                             FL
                                              HI

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
2021 US Senate Makeup
     2 Democrats                    1 Democrat + 1 Republican
     2 Republicans                  Not yet called

                           WA
                                                                                                                                ME
                                                     MT         ND                                                         VT

                      OR                                                   MN                                                   NH
                                      ID                        SD                    WI                                  NY
                                                      WY                                         MI
                                                                            IA                                       PA
                                                                 NE                                                                  MA
                               NV
                                           UT                                                             OH
                                                                                           IL   IN
                                                           CO                                                  WV                    RI
                   CA                                                                                                VA
                                                                     KS         MO
                                                                                                     KY                              CT
                                                                                                                     NC
                                                                                                TN                                   NJ
                                       AZ                             OK
                                                          NM                    AR                              SC
                                                                                                                                     DE
                                                                                       MS       AL        GA
                                                                                                                                     MD
                                                                 TX              LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                FL
                                                HI

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
The 2020 Elections & Private Equity - Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance - The Small Business Investor ...
2020 Governor Results
     Dem hold                   Dem gain           No election
     GOP hold                   GOP gain

                           WA
                                                                                                                                 ME
                                                   MT            ND                                                         VT

                      OR                                                    MN                                                   NH
                                    ID                           SD                    WI                                  NY
                                                    WY                                            MI
                                                                             IA                                       PA
                                                                  NE                                                                  MA
                               NV
                                         UT                                                                OH
                                                                                            IL   IN
                                                         CO                                                     WV                    RI
                   CA                                                                                                 VA
                                                                      KS         MO
                                                                                                      KY                              CT
                                                                                                                      NC
                                                                                                 TN                                   NJ
                                    AZ                                 OK
                                                        NM                       AR                              SC
                                                                                                                                      DE
                                                                                        MS       AL        GA
                                                                                                                                      MD
                                                                  TX              LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                 FL
                                              HI

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
2021 Governor Makeup
     Dem governor                   GOP governor                Not yet called

                           WA
                                                                                                                                         ME
                                                      MT                ND                                                          VT

                      OR                                                            MN                                                   NH
                                       ID                               SD                     WI                                  NY
                                                       WY                                                 MI
                                                                                     IA                                       PA
                                                                          NE                                                                  MA
                               NV
                                            UT                                                                     OH
                                                                                                    IL   IN
                                                            CO                                                          WV                    RI
                   CA                                                                                                         VA
                                                                             KS          MO
                                                                                                              KY                              CT
                                                                                                                              NC
                                                                                                         TN                                   NJ
                                       AZ                                      OK
                                                           NM                            AR                              SC
                                                                                                                                              DE
                                                                                                MS       AL        GA
                                                                                                                                              MD
                                                                         TX               LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                         FL
                                                 HI

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
2021 State Legislature Makeup
     Dem House and Senate                           Split House and Senate
     GOP House and Senate                           Not yet called

                           WA
                                                                                                                                  ME
                                                     MT           ND                                                         VT

                      OR                                                     MN                                                   NH
                                     ID                           SD                    WI                                  NY
                                                       WY                                          MI
                                                                              IA                                       PA
                                                                    NE*                                                                MA
                               NV
                                          UT                                                                OH
                                                                                             IL   IN
                                                           CO                                                    WV                    RI
                   CA                                                                                                  VA
                                                                       KS         MO
                                                                                                       KY                              CT
                                                                                                                       NC
                                                                                                  TN                                   NJ
                                     AZ                                 OK
                                                          NM                      AR                              SC
                                                                                                                                       DE
                                                                                         MS       AL        GA
                                                                                                                                       MD
                                                                   TX              LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                  FL
                                               HI

 *Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
2021 State Trifectas
     Dem trifecta                   Not a trifecta                                       Trifectas are when one party controls the
     GOP trifecta                   Not yet called                                       governorship and both legislative chambers

                           WA
                                                                                                                                  ME
                                                       MT         ND                                                         VT

                      OR                                                     MN                                                   NH
                                        ID                        SD                    WI                                  NY
                                                        WY                                         MI
                                                                              IA                                       PA
                                                                   NE*                                                                 MA
                               NV
                                             UT                                                             OH
                                                                                             IL   IN
                                                             CO                                                  WV                    RI
                   CA                                                                                                  VA
                                                                       KS         MO
                                                                                                       KY                              CT
                                                                                                                       NC
                                                                                                  TN                                   NJ
                                        AZ                              OK
                                                            NM                    AR                              SC
                                                                                                                                       DE
                                                                                         MS       AL        GA
                                                                                                                                       MD
                                                                   TX              LA
                     AK

                                                                                                                  FL
                                                  HI

 *Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
2020 Electoral College and Statewide Races
              President
          (Electoral College)     Senate        Governor

     AK         MA         NV    AL        MS
                                                   MO
     AL         MD         NY    AK        MT

     AR         ME         OH    AR        NE      MT
     AZ        ME-1        OK
                                 AZ        NH

     CA        ME-2        OR                      NC
                                 CO        NM
     CO         MI         PA
                                 DE        NJ
                                                   NH
     CT         MN         RI
                                GA-II      NC
     DC         MO         SC
                                GA-III     OK      VT
     DE         MS         SD
                                 ID        OR
     FL         MT         TN                      WV
                                  IL       RI
     GA         NC         TX
                                 IA        SC      DE
     HI         ND         UT
                                                            KEY
                                 KS        SD
     IA         NE         VA
                                 KY        TN
                                                   IN       Runoff
     ID        NE-1        VT                              Election
                                 LA        TX               Jan 5
     IL        NE-2        WA
                                                   ND
     IN        NE-3        WI    ME        VA               Rep
     KS         NH         WV    MA        WV      UT
     KY         NJ         WY    MI        WY              Dem
                                                   WA
     LA         NM               MN
2020 Election Status by House Race

                                                 KEY

SOURCE Politico
2020 Election: The Density Divide

                                                                                                                  KEY

Source: WSJ.com Nov 24 2020
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-2020-election-deepened-americas-white-collar-blue-collar-split-11606219208
Selected Ballot Initiatives
Topic             Subtopic          State         Initiative                                    Description                                    Result

                                                                   Allows either Initiative 65 (lenient) or Alternative 65a (strict) to pass
                    Medical           MS       Ballot Measure 1                                                                                Passed
                                                                   (voters choose in Measure 1b which version they prefer)
                   Marijuana
                  Legalization
                                      SD         Measure 26        Creates a medical marijuana program                                         Passed

                                      SD       Const. Amend. A     Legalizes recreational use of marijuana                                     Passed

                                      AZ        Proposition 207    Legalizes the recreational possession and use of marijuana                  Passed
                  Recreational
Drugs
                   Marijuana                        CI-118         Amends constitution to allow minimum age of 21 for marijuana                Passed
                  Legalization        MT
                                                     I-190         Legalizes possession and use of marijuana for adults over 21                Passed

                                      NJ       Public Question 1   Amends constitution to legalize recreational use                            Passed

                 Entheogens           DC          Initiative 81    Declares that entheogenic plants are lowest police priority                 Passed
                (mushrooms)
               decriminalization      OR         Measure 109       Legalizes psilocybin administered by the Oregon Health Authority            Passed

                Minimum Wage              FL    Amendment 2        Increases the state minimum wage to $15 by 2026                             Passed
Labor
                Ind. Contractors      CA        Proposition 22     Considers app-based drivers to be independent contractors                   Passed

S O U R C E Associated Press
AP DATA AS OF         11/9/2020 8:20 AM
Key Transition Events
Pre-election “planning” phase                                                 Post-election timeline
• Name transition chair(s) and key staff
• Develop relationships with the GSA, FBI, OPM, OGE,                 Nov. 3     Election Day
  current administration, and Congress
• Set goals and develop project plan for transition
                                                                     Dec. 8     “Safe Harbor” deadline for
                                                                                choosing Electors
Post-election “transition phase”
• Appointing key White House and agency staff                        Dec. 14    Meeting of electors in states
• Deploy teams to agencies for policy/structure review
• Finalizing policy agenda/schedule
                                                                     Jan. 3     Seating of the new Congress
• Naming cabinet

Post-inauguration “handover” phase                                   Jan. 6     Joint session of Congress
                                                                                counts electoral votes
• New admins must fill about 4,000 political positions
• Over 1,200 positions require Senate confirmation
                                                                     Jan. 20    Inauguration Day
• Official transition organization must also wind down

  S O U R C E National Journal; Center for Presidential Transition
President Elect Biden
                                                            People are Policy

     Key provisions
                                  • All current political appointees will resign or be immediately fired
    Thousands of                  • An unprecedented number of senior positions have been left vacant for
1
    Management Positions            unprecedented periods during the Trump Administration
    will be swapped out or
    filled
    Control of Congress will
                                  • Many senior positions and all Cabinet positions require Senate
2   limit or expand choices
                                    confirmation
    of senior personnel
                                  • Biden will not waste time and political capital trying to get difficult
                                    appointees through so look for “safe” picks (likely angering
                                    progressives)
    Many experienced              • President Trump broke all precedents for using “acting” management
3   personnel will return to        for senior positions without Senate Confirmation
    the government

                                  • Budget and funds available may already be locked in for new
    Watch for GOP                   appointees
4   appointees and centrist       • New President will need to submit new budget, outlining priorities, in
    Senators                        February

                                                                                                              16
Chief of Staff Ron Klain
     - Biden’s Most Important First Hire
                                                              BIOGRAPHY

                                                              A longtime Democratic aide, strategist, and trusted Biden adviser,
                                                              Klain is a sought-after voice on the COVID-19 pandemic crisis
                                                              •   Extensive background in law, politics, and the private sector working as a top
                                                                  aide to Vice Presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden; now works on the Biden
                                                                  campaign and as General Counsel and EVP of investment firm Revolution
                                                              •   Began professional relationship with Biden on the Senate Judiciary
                                                                  Committee; chief counsel during Biden’s chairmanship from 1989-1992
                                                              •   As Vice President Gore’s chief of staff, helped his boss navigate Pres.
 CHIEF OF STAFF, VP JOE BIDEN                                     Clinton’s impeachment while positioning him to run for president
 2009-2011
                                                              •   Played a central role in overseeing the 2009 stimulus package under then-
 CHIEF OF STAFF, VP AL GORE                                       Vice President Biden
 1995-1999
                                                              •   Appointed by President Obama in 2014 to be the WH “Ebola Czar” for his
 DATE OF BIRTH                                                    crisis-management skills; efforts to contain Ebola considered successful
 8/8/1961 (Age: 59)
                                                              •   In his role with Revolution, Klain has joined CEO Steve Case on road trips to
 HOMETOWN                                                         promote tech entrepreneurship across the country
 Indianapolis, IN
                                                              •   Advises the Biden campaign’s COVID-19 response as well as private sector
 EDUCATION                                                        entities through his position at Revolution
 Georgetown U., AB, 1983
 Harvard Law School, JD, 1987                                 •   In-demand interview subject for his pandemic expertise; has consistently
 FAMILY
                                                                  called for a more unified, aggressive federal COVID-19 response
 Wife (Monica Medina); 3 children                             •   Appointed by President-elect Joe Biden to be his White House chief of staff

 S O U R C E National Journal; Vignette by National Journal
Key White House Positions
                                                                                                 Biden            Requires Senate
          Agency                         Position                   Current Official
                                                                                           Appointee/Nominee       Confirmation?
                                       Chief of Staff                Mark Meadows               Ron Klain               No

                                                                      Chris Liddell,
                                   Deputy Chief of Staff             Tony Ornato,           Jen O’Malley Dillon         No
                                                                    and Dan Scavino

                                      Senior Advisor                 Jared Kushner            Mike Donilon              No
         West Wing
                                         Counselor                     Hope Hicks             Steve Ricchetti           No

                               Director of Public Engagement         Timothy Pataki          Cedric Richmond            No
                               Director of Intergovt’l Affairs      Doug Hoelscher            Julie Rodriguez           No

                                          Counsel                     Pat Cipollone            Dana Remus               No

                                          Director                   Russell Vought                                     Yes
           OMB
                                    OIRA Administrator                 Paul J. Ray                                      Yes

  National Security Council      National Security Advisor          Robert C. O’Brien          Jake Sullivan            No

 National Economic Council                Director                    Larry Kudlow                                      No
  Domestic Policy Council                 Director                Brook Rollins (acting)                                No

Council of Economic Advisors             Chairman                Tyler Godspeed (acting)                                No

                                 Communications Director             Alyssah Farah                                      No
      Communications
                                      Press Secretary              Kayleigh McEnany                                     No
President-elect Joe Biden’s cabinet picks
                        Vice President                                     State                                    Treasury           Defense
                        Kamala Harris                                      Antony Blinken                           Janet Yellen       TBD

                        Attorney General                                   Interior                                 Agriculture        Commerce
                        TBD                                                TBD                                      TBD                TBD

                                                                           Health & Human                           Housing & Urban
                        Labor                                                                                                          Transportation
                                                                           Services                                 Development
                        TBD                                                                                                            TBD
                                                                           TBD                                      TBD

                        Energy                                             Education                                Veterans Affairs   Homeland Security
                        TBD                                                TBD                                      TBD                Alejandro Mayorkas

                                                                                           Cabinet-level officials*

                        White House                                        White House
                                                                                                                    CIA Director       EPA Administrator
                        Chief of Staff                                     OMB Director
                                                                                                                    TBD                TBD
                        Ronald Klain                                       TBD

                                                                                                                                       US Ambassador to
                        Director of Nat’l                                  US Trade                                 Small Business
                                                                                                                                       the UN
                        Intelligence                                       Representative                           Administrator
                                                                                                                                       Linda Thomas-
                        Avril Haines                                       TBD                                      TBD
                                                                                                                                       Greenfield

   * The Biden-Harris transition has not yet announced which non-Cabinet officials will be deemed “Cabinet-level”
   S O U R C E Biden-Harris Transition.
   P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 11/23/20
Key Positions For Finance/Private Equity
                                                                                                                               Requires Senate
       Agency                                Position                         Current Official       Biden Appointee/Nominee
                                                                                                                                Confirmation?
                                               Chair                           Jay Clayton (R)*                                      Yes

                                         Commissioner
                                  (Term expires June 5, 2021,                  Jay Clayton (R)*                                      Yes
                                  Will Depart December 2020)

                                        Commissioner
                                                                            Allison Herren Lee (D)             N/A                   Yes
Securities and Exchange           (Term expires June 5, 2022)
      Commission                        Commissioner
                                                                             Elad L. Roisman (R)               N/A                   Yes
                                  (Term expires June 5, 2023)

                                        Commissioner
                                                                          Caroline A. Crenshaw (D)             N/A                   Yes
                                  (Term expires June 5, 2024)

                                        Commissioner
                                                                             Hester M. Peirce (R)              N/A                   Yes
                                  (Term expires June 5, 2025)

                                            Secretary                          Steve Mnuchin                Janet Yellen             Yes

       Treasury                         Deputy Secretary                   Justin George Muzinich                                    Yes

                                  Comptroller of the Currency               Brian Brooks (Acting)                                    Yes

         CFPB                                Director                     Kathleen Laura Kraninger                                   Yes

    Small Business                        Administrator                        Jovita Carranza                                       Yes
    Administration                    Deputy Administrator                            Vacant                                         Yes
    *Clayton is self-proclaimed Independent, but holds a Republican seat on the SEC
Potential committee leadership: Financial
Names in italics are incumbent committee leaders;
Potential chair conflicts noted in (parentheses)

                 Committee                                    Democratic Leader            Republican Leader

    Senate Banking, Housing,                                                          Mike Crapo (ID) (Budget or Finance)
                                                                 Sherrod Brown (OH)
    and Urban Development                                                                      Pat Toomey (PA)

                                                                                       Chuck Grassley (IA) (term limit)
    Senate Finance                                                  Ron Wyden (OR)    Mike Crapo (ID) (Budget or Banking)
                                                                                               John Cornyn (TX)

    House Financial Services                                     Maxine Waters (CA)          Patrick McHenry (NC)

    House Ways and Means                                          Richard Neal (MA)            Kevin Brady (TX)

                                                                                            Marco Rubio (FL) (Intel)
    Senate Small Business                                           Ben Cardin (CA)
                                                                                               Rand Paul (KY)

                                                                                               Steve Chabot(OH)
    House Small Business                                            Nydia Velazquez
                                                                                           Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO)

 2020 N A T I O N A L J O U R N A L P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R
                                                                                                                            21
The Biden plan for
                  President-Elect Biden
                                                              emergency support
                                                               small businesses

     Key provisions
                                 • Secure $60 billion set-aside in funds for smaller lenders and
                                   community-based financial institutions to deserving small businesses in
    Establish a “True Small        minority communities
1   Business Fund”               • Review and expand the Paycheck Protection Program

    Keep well-off business

2
    owners from unjustly
    using any program for        • Mitigate unnecessary paperwork and expedite loans to hard-hit
    their benefit                  businesses, and never penalize firms or banks for good-faith mistakes
                                 • Ensure that no business owner receives above their lost revenue
    Ensure that the              • Increase scrutiny of certain types of small businesses where owners
                                   and executives are making over $500,000
3
    Paycheck Protection
    Program’s (PPP) terms
    support small businesses
                                 • Support further amendments to the PPP:
    Guarantee that every           • Guarantee that every qualifying business gets relief
4                                  • Authorize more generous loans that retain workers on payroll and
    qualifying small
    business gets relief             cover fixed costs during the COVID-19 crisis
    under PPP                      • Establish “look-back audit” tools to police against abuse

                                                                                                             22
Regulatory Powers
                  President-Elect Biden
                                                                    and
                                                               Social Justice

     Key provisions
                                •   Board diversity disclosure requirements
    House Dems and              •   Address discrimination in housing
1   Administration have         •   Address discrimination in consumer lending
    social justice agenda
                                •   Address bias in underwriting
    Legislation will be         •   Expand role and capacity for MDIs and CDFIs
2   harder than regulation or
                                •   Increase investments in affordable and public
    reporting
                                    housing development and rehabilitation
                                •   Change economic development tax incentives,
    Many bigger businesses
                                    such as Opportunity Zones
3
    are already in line with
    many of these proposals     •   Enhance protections for LBGTQ populations
    (at least publicly)         •   Provide maternal and community health and
                                    childcare
                                •   Increase job training
                                •   Expand Federal Reserve mandate to address
                                    racial inequality and environment concerns

                                                                                    23
Obama-like approach to financial regulation
    - Focus on Consumer Protection and Closing Racial Disparities
                 Reinforce Dodd-Frank
                 •   Bolster safeguards that limit retail banking institutions from making risky investments
                 •   Strengthen provisions to protect against systemic risks and preventing banks from becoming
                     “too big to fail”

                 Increase CFPB enforcement
                 •   Reassert CFPB’s power to regulate consumer lending, including credit cards
                 •   Enforce settlements against discriminatory, abusive or deceptive lenders
                 •   Create a Public Credit Reporting Agency within the CFPB

                 Increase Board Diversity
                 •   Increased Reporting of Race and Gender
                 •   Both of major companies and portfolio companies

                 Expand access to financial services for the unbanked and underbanked
                 •   Encourage the Federal Reserve to set up a real-time payment system for faster check-cashing
                     as well as a potential Federal Reserve bank account
                 •   Provide accessible service locations through postal banking

                 Bankruptcy Reform
                 •   Streamline filing process
                 •   End rules that make it difficult to discharge student debt in bankruptcy
                 •   Eliminate loopholes that allow potential abuse of the bankruptcy system
Current financial and banking regulations that President-Elect
                  Biden would like to change
                               Trump admin.                  Proposed action
                               action                        Amend Federal Reserve Act
            Federal Reserve    Limited focus on racial       language to mandate regular
                               employment and wealth gaps,   reporting on such issues
            Act                and measures to reduce
                               these

                               Trump admin.                  Proposed action
            Dodd-Frank         action                        Strengthens Dodd-Frank with
                               Rolled back or scaled down    a goal to avert any future
            financial reform   several banking regulations   financial crisis –leverage
                               under the initial Obama-era   limits?
                               law

                               Trump admin.                  Proposed action
            Mergers and        action                        Reviews (lookback) certain
            acquisitions       Generally shored up big US
                               deal making amid decreased
                                                             mergers under Trump,
                                                             including in the healthcare
                               regulation and tax reform     market, to assess
                                                             anticompetitive practices
Current tax and labor regulations that President-Elect Biden
                            would like to change
                                                                                        Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                                                                                                         Significantly raise corporate
                                                                                        action                           taxes and taxes on the
                                 Taxation                                               Passed the Tax and Jobs Act      “wealthy”; reject “trickle
                                                                                        of 2017; sharply cut corporate   down” tax cuts – DOA if GOP
                                                                                        taxes                            holds Senate, Very possible if
                                                                                                                         Dems Sweep GA

                                                                                        Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                                                                        action                           Ensure workers, including
                                 Wage protection                                        Reversed progress towards        domestic and farm workers,
                                                                                        Obama-Biden rule to extend       are paid fairly for working
                                                                                        overtime pay                     overtime; increase minimum
                                                                                                                         wage to $15/hour

                                                                                        Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                   Labor rights                                         action                           Repeal “right to work” laws,
                                   and unions                                           Issued executive orders that
                                                                                        limited federal unions’
                                                                                                                         pass the PRO Act, and
                                                                                                                         increase union recognition –
                                                                                        powers; supported “right to      DOA with a GOP Senate
                                                                                        work” laws

S O U R C E Biden for President, The Balance, Architectural Digest, National Federation of Federal Employees.
MANSHA MAHAJAN 9/9/20
Current housing regulations that President-Elect Biden would like to change

                                                                                            Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                                                                            action                           Bring back the Affirmatively
                                     Fair housing                                           Repealed the Obama-era           Furthering Fair Housing Rule;
                                                                                            Affirmatively Furthering Fair    protect against abusive
                                     and lending                                            Housing rule                     lenders

                                                                                            Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                     Community
                                                                                            action                           Expand the CRA to apply to
                                     Reinvestment                                           Proposed loopholes for           mortgage and insurance
                                                                                            lenders who use exclusionary     companies; reverse rules that
                                     Act (CRA)                                              practices                        allow institutions to use
                                                                                                                             discriminatory practices

                                                                                            Trump admin.                     Proposed action
                                       Housing                                              action                           Created barriers for
                                       discrimination                                       Created barriers for
                                                                                            borrowers attempting to file
                                                                                                                             borrowers attempting to file
                                                                                                                             discrimination lawsuits
                                                                                            discrimination lawsuits          against financial institutions
                                                                                            against financial institutions

    S O U R C E Biden for President, The Balance, Architectural Digest, National Federation of Federal Employees.
    SASKIA KERCY9/14/20
Current Trade Policies that President-Elect Biden would like to change
                              Trump admin.                      Proposed action
                              action                            Comprehensive review of
            Tariffs           Extensive tariffs on a range of   tariffs – some will stay and
                              products from many countries      some will go, deescalate
                                                                conflicts with friendly nations

                              Trump admin.                      Proposed action
            Immigration       action                            Repeal immigration and travel
                              Highly restrictive travel and     bans/restrictions that are
                              immigration policies              seen as discriminatory

                              Trump admin.                      Proposed action
             Drug Prices      action                            May modify Trump proposal
                              Major changes to pricing of       or may accept the bulk of the
                              drugs to be in line with prices   Trump Proposal
                              paid by other developed
                              countries
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under
                    President-elect Joe Biden
                                                  Installing a new head at the CFPB will be among the Biden team’s first moves.
                         Leadership               The Trump administration was opposed to the CFPB and its performance had
                                                  been lax under Trump appointed leadership

                                                  The CFPB will have more power to ensure flexibility for mortgages under the
                         Mortgage relief          CARES Act to prevent foreclosures during the pandemic and prevent lenders
                                                  from inflicting unaffordable repayment plans

                                                  The CFPB may also restore a rule that that aimed to protect people who get
                         Payday loans             payday loans. The Trump administration had “weakened” the rule

                                                  Biden wants to create a credit-reporting agency under the CFPB to address
                                                  racial disparities in credit reporting, and to strengthen the bureau’s fair-
                       Fair lending               lending office

                                                  A Biden administration will focus on protecting consumers from bank-
                         Penalties and loans      overdraft programs, and more aggressively oversee student-loan servicers

                                                  The taskforce has faced opposition from consumer-advocacy groups over
                         Consumer Financial Law   concerns of it being filled with industry-friendly members and holding closed-
                         taskforce                session meetings without public notice

S O U R C E NPR, Barrons.
M A N S H A M A H A J A N 11/22/20
Scheduled Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
          The Next Decade
                                Projections of federal tax policy after the 2020 election

                              2021
                              Business net                                                                 2025
                              interest                              2025                                   Alternative
                              expenses will                                                                minimum tax
                                                                   Individual
                              be limited to                                                                reductions will
                                                                   income tax rate
                              30% of EBIT,                                                                 expire; GILTI,
                                                                   reductions will
                              rather than 30%                                                              FDII, and BEAT
                                                                   expire
                              of EBITDA                                                                    will increase
                                                                                                           restrictions
2021                          2021              2022                2025             2025                 2025               2025

 2021                                           2022                                  2025                                    2025

 Businesses must                                Full expensing                       Standard                                Reduction of
 begin expensing                                for short-life                       deduction hike,                         estate tax will
 research and                                   business                             doubling of child                       expire
 experimentation                                investments will                     tax credit, limits
 costs over five                                begin to phase                       on state and
 years                                          out                                  local tax
                                                                                     deduction, and
                                                                                     mortgage
                                                                                     interest
                                                                                     deduction will
                                                                                     expire

S O U R C E Tax Foundation.
SASKIA KERCY 11/17/20
Biden’s First 100 Days as President
         Finalize Filling his Cabinet and other Senior Positions
         ▪ National security positions (Defense, CIA, DHS) usually confirmed first
         ▪ The rest of the cabinet will likely be filled faster with a Democratic Senate

         Addressing the coronavirus pandemic
         ▪ Passing a major stimulus bill
         ▪ Creating a nation-wide testing strategy
         ▪ Managing vaccine development and distribution

         Reversing Trump Admin Policies and Executive Orders
         ▪ Start the process of rejoining international orgs: Paris Climate Accord, WHO, Iran nuclear deal
         ▪ Reverse orders on immigration, reproductive health and civil rights
         ▪ If Dems win the Senate, Congress could use the Congressional Review Act to reverse policies

         Legislative Priorities – Challenging and Dependent on GA Races
         ▪ Stimulus/Economic Recovery
         ▪ Climate change and infrastructure
         ▪ Health care reform

S O U R C E National Journal
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 10/29/20
Potential Democratic Legislative Priorities
           Climate change/infrastructure                                       Health care reform

           •   Pass H.R. 2, which increases investment in green                •   Pass H.R. 3 and H.R. 1425 to reduce drug prices and
               infrastructure through the FAST Act                                 expand coverage under the ACA
           •   Additional climate legislation would aim for emissions-         •   Additional health legislation would attempt to create a
               free energy by 2035, net-zero emissions by 2015 with an             public insurance option, address surprise billing, and
               emphasis on environmental justice                                   reinstate funding for reproductive health

           Political/government reform                                         Immigration reform

           •   Pass H.R. 1, the For the People Act                             •   Reverse Trump Executive Orders
           •   The bill would establish a national voter registration          •   Pass an immigration reform bill with a path to citizenship
               program, establish nonpartisan commissions to redraw                for some undocumented residents
               congressional maps, and create a public financing system        •   Codify protections for children who came to the Untied
               for federal campaigns, among other provisions                       States illegally from deportation

           Tax reform                                                          Education reform

           •   Increase corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%                     •   Reauthorize the Higher Education Act through the Aim
           •   Create manufacturing repatriation tax incentives                    Higher Act
           •   Increase top-bracket income tax rate                            •   Additional education legislation would attempt to make
                                                                                   four-year public universities debt-free for low-income
                                                                                   families

 S O U R C E The State, The Washington Post, Joe Biden for President, Forbes
 P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 10/15/20
4 Major roadblocks to Biden’s Priorities
             1          If GOP controls Senate                     2    Senate Process/Filibuster
         ▪ Senate Republicans would block bills expanding        ▪ Under current Senate rules, most legislation requires
           Obamacare, and only allow limited climate change        60 votes to advance
           legislation                                           ▪ Through the nuclear option, Democrats could change
         ▪ Biden expects GOP to be open to compromise after        the rules with a simple majority vote – don’t have the
           Trump, but analysts remain skeptical                    votes to change this (yet)

             3             Conservative courts                     4        Intra-party divisions
         ▪ Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority after   ▪ Liberal Democrats might withhold support for more
           Barrett’s confirmation                                  moderate legislation in the House
         ▪ Trump has installed hundreds of conservative judges   ▪ Conservative Democrats in the Senate might oppose
           across the country                                      some major reforms
         ▪ Conservative judges will likely not allow broad
           interpretations of legislative text

 S O U R C E National Journal
 P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 10/15/20
Rollback of Trump Executive Orders
                            T O P I C                                                D E T A I L S

                                                                               •   Rejoin the Paris Climate Accord
                                                                               •   Reinstate or expand Obama-era mileage standards, reversing the Trump
                                                                                   administration’s decrease of annual fuel economy increases from 5% to 1.5%
                            Environment                                            through 2026
                                                                               •   Reinstate mercury and air toxics standards, an Obama-era policy that mandated
                                                                                   that power plants use certain mercury pollution controls

                                                                               •   Re-establish relationships with our allies, calling world leaders before his
                                                                                   inauguration to say “we’re back and you can count on us again”
                            Foreign policy                                     •   Rejoin the World Health Organization (WHO), which Trump withdrew from in
                                                                                   July, and restore American leadership

                                                                               •   Restore all Trump administration limitations on the Affordable Care Act and
                            Health care                                            instruct his administration to drop the federal lawsuit to strike down the ACA
                                                                               •   Reverse the Trump administration’s rollback of Obama-era health policies

                                                                               •   End family separations at the border and prosecution of parents for minor
                                                                                   immigration violations
                                                                               •   Reverse EO 13769, known as the Muslim ban by opponents
                            Immigration                                        •   Reverse the public charge rule
                                                                               •   Reverse Trump administration policies that have reduced the refugee program,
                                                                                   and would seek to raise the admissions cap

S O U R C E Reuters, The State, The New York Times, The Washington Post, EHS Daily Advisor
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 10/15/20
Biden Promises to Address in his First 100 days
               Immigration                                                     Unions
                •    Create an immigration reform bill, which would            •   Create a cabinet-level working group that will solely
                     include a path to citizenship for immigrants, an              focus on promoting union organizing and collective
                     increase in the number of immigration and asylum              bargaining in the public and private sectors
                     judges, and provide health care for immigrants
                     detained at the border

               LGBTQ policy                                                    Gun violence
                •    Enact the Equality Act to provide rights under the law    •   Direct the FBI to produce a report detailing cases in which
                     for LGBTQ+ Americans                                          background checks are not completed within 10 business
                •    Direct his Cabinet to ensure the Act is enforced across       days
                     all federal department and agencies                       •   Direct the AG to deliver recommendations for
                •    Direct federal resources to help prevent violence             restructuring the ATF and related Justice agencies
                     against transgender women, particularly transgender       •   Repeal protections for gun manufacturers and closing
                     women of color                                                background check “loopholes”

               VAWA                                                            Taxes
                •   Pass the Violence Against Women Act                        •   Eliminate the 2017 tax cuts
                                                                               •   Double the taxes that companies who have gone
                                                                                   overseas have to pay on foreign profits

    S O U R C E The State, The Washington Post, Joe Biden for President
    P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 10/15/20
For Further Information Please Contact:
 • Membership: membership@SBIA.org
 • Equity Fund Managers: PE@SBIA.org
 • General Information: www.SBIA.org
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