ELECTION 2020: THE MORNING AFTER - BNY Mellon
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ACCESS A BROADER MARKET PERSPECTIVE ELECTION 2020: THE MORNING AFTER BY JOHN VELIS
BY THE
NUMBERS
187
Number of electoral votes up for grabs in states
defined by Real Clear Politics as “swing states”
76.7 MILLION
Number of mail-in ballots sent to voters around
the country
13
Number of states that cannot begin counting mail-
in ballots until after polls close on Election Day
3
Net number of Senate seats that Democrats need
to win to gain control of the chamber
7
Number of Senate races rated as “toss ups” by
Real Clear Politics
SOURCES:
1. Real Clear Politics, 2020 Electoral College Map
2. The New York Times, Tracking Absentee Votes
in the 2020 Election
3. The Wall Street Journal, Declaring 2020's
Winner Could Well Hinge on How Quickly States
Count Mail Ballots
4. Real Clear Politics, Battle for the Senate 2020
5. IbidAS AN EXTRAORDINARY CAMPAIGN REACHES
ITS CLIMAX, AFTER THE SOUND AND FURY HAVE
FADED, WHAT COMES NEXT FOR MARKETS?
BY JOHN VELIS
ith just a handful delayed election result that could leave Despite the President’s insistence
W of days remaining
until the US
Presidential elec-
tion, the risks are rising. What was
already building in portent and conse-
the US political landscape in limbo for
weeks or even months.
COVID UPENDS RACE
What was already shaping up to be
that he will still debate Vice President
Biden on October 22, it is an open ques-
tion whether additional debates will
help or harm the President’s standing,
especially considering his first debate
quence has taken yet another unexpect- a closely contested presidential elec- performance was almost universally
edly dramatic turn with the President’s tion has been upended by President poorly received. Indeed, recent polling
coronavirus infection. Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. Although post-debate has moved the race further
The result of the race had appeared the President is no longer in the hos- in Biden’s direction.
to be foreordained in the polls after the pital, and his condition has ostensibly What would happen if a candidate
conclusion of the first debate, with a improved, his age and other health fac- were unable to remain on the ticket due
Biden victory anticipated, but the true tors make it difficult to definitively state to poor health? Although this has never
extent of the President’s medical con- that he is entirely out of the woods. occurred, both parties have provisions
dition presents a major wild card that This uncertainty has been com- in their nominating procedures for
complicates placing odds on the final pounded by the cancellation of the this eventuality. Each party’s national
outcome. second presidential debate that had committee would hold a re-nomina-
In light of the President’s COVID-19 been scheduled for October 15. After tion process at the committee level and
diagnosis, in this piece we first examine the C ommi ssion on Presidential approve a new candidate to put on the
what would happen if either candidate Debates announced that the event ticket. We assume that it is a reason-
could not continue at the top of the would take place virtually following able expectation that both of the Vice
ticket. We then look at three possible the President’s recent infection, the Presidential nominees would receive
electoral scenarios and their policy Trump campaign refused to partic- the nomination.
implications: a Biden victory along with ipate, stating there was “no medical Then there is the matter of the bal-
the Democrats taking control of the reason” to cancel the in-person format lots. Over 76 million ballots with Trump
Senate; a Trump victory with a divided and that “the President will be healthy and Biden’s names on them have been
Congress; and finally, a disputed and/or and ready to debate.” sent to voters, out of a total electorateELECTION BETTING ODDS
The odds of a Biden victory and gains for congressional Democrats have improved through 2020
100%
75%
50%
DEMS WIN SENATE
DEMS RETAIN HOUSE
BIDEN WINS
25%
0%
20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 n l g p t
r Ju Ju Au
an b ar Ap ay Se Oc
J Fe M M
SOURCE: PREDICTIT, BLOOMBERG; DATA THROUGH OCTOBER 12, 2020
FIGURE 1
of up to 207 million registered voters. If candidate, even at a very late date aggregators show him ahead in the
a candidate were to be replaced before before the election, although the prac- national popular vote by 7-8%. What’s
the November 3 election, there would ticalities make it tricky. more, Biden’s average polling support,
not be sufficient time to reprint and The chances of postponing the elec- according to these aggregators, is near
redistribute mail-in ballots — or even tion are remote. Federal law mandates or just above 50%, while President
print new on-site ballots. Furthermore, the date of the election, and it would Trump is in the low 40s.
many early votes have already been take an act of Congress to change When one candidate is polling above
cast. it — something highly unlikely given 50%, it is generally considered a much
This is where the power of indi- that control of the two chambers of stronger indicator, as it would require
vidual states to choose presidential Congress are held by opposing par- the candidate trailing in the polls to not
electors comes in. The vast majority ties. The Constitution declares that a just convert undecided voters but also
of states award all their electors by presidential term expires at noon ET convert previously committed voters to
popular vote; in some — but not all — on January 20. If no new President and his or her side. Betting odds also have
states, the electors are legally bound Vice President has been declared, the the election strongly in Biden’s favor.
to vote for the named candidate. Speaker of the House will become pres- See Figure 1 for the current state of the
Nevertheless, we think it is likely ident at that time. polls.
electors would, when gathered on Winning the national popular vote
December 14, vote for the candidate POLLS SUGGEST would not necessarily result in a Biden
at the top of the ticket at the time of BIDEN VICTORY victory, as Hillary Clinton proved in
the November 3 election. At the time of publication, the polls 2016, when she garnered 48% of the
The bottom line is that although strongly suggest that the election is popular vote to Donald Trump’s 46% —
it has never happened before, there Joe Biden’s to lose. The most recent a margin of nearly three million votes
are party procedures to replace a averages by several respected poll — but still lost in the Electoral College,A handful of battleground states
will determine how the election
is decided
the mechanism by which the President first debate on September 29, Real This would have significant policy
is actually elected. This means 50 sep- Clear Politics — an influential aggre- implications.
arate elections in each of the states will gator — showed Biden’s odds of win-
effectively decide who wins the White ning at 60%. We have been burned by Tax and Stimulus
House. polls in the past, of course, and by all A Biden administration with a friendly
W h e n we l o o k at t h e s e s t ate - measures, Hillary Clinton was also the Congress would probably move quickly
wide polls, the race appears much favorite to win on the eve of the 2016 to enact a large fiscal package touching
tighter, and a handful of states are election. CNBC reported on November COVID-19-related relief, infrastructure
closely contested. These will ulti- 1 of that year that betting markets had and green projects. Taxes would likely
mately be the battlegrounds where her odds of winning at between 71% rise on corporations and high earners.
the election is decided. This list and 81%. Health care, climate policy and inter-
includes Pennsylvania, Michigan, and national economic relations would see
Wisconsin, reliably Democratic states SCENARIOS AND major attempts at reform.
that Trump unexpectedly won in 2016 IMPLICATIONS With both houses of Congress on
by narrow margins. board, we would expect the first
Democratic Sweep order of business to be a corona-
ther, “purple” states Control of the Senate is also up for virus package similar to the $3 trillion
O are up for grabs. As
Figure 2 shows, the
st ates rated by Real
Clear Politics as “toss up” or “leaning
Biden” (meaning still in play) make up
grabs. The Democrats are competitive
in a number of races where they could
flip a seat from red to blue and gain a
majority in the upper chamber (See
Figure 3).
Heroes Act passed by the Democratic
House of Representatives in May of
this year, but which had no legiti-
mate chance of passage in the current
Congress.
a sizeable chunk of the 270 electoral We judge it most probable that the Even though we expect the US
votes needed to win. With such a large party that wins the White House would economy to remain weak into 2021
number of battleground states there are also win the Senate. With the House when a potential Biden administration
still multiple paths to victory for both of Representatives likely to remain would take office, Biden might seek to
candidates. Democratic, there is a real chance of a enact tax reform with haste, including
The betting markets currently have Biden presidency with the Democrats a repeal of the Trump tax cuts on both
Biden in the lead as well. Just after the in control of both houses of Congress. corporations and individuals.BIDEN'S TO LOSE: 2020 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP
Current polling gives Biden 226 Electoral College votes to Trump's 125, with 187 votes in play
ME1 (1)
ME2 (1)
NH 4 ME
WA
12 NE2 (1) VT 3 2
MT ND
3 3
MN
OR 10 NH
WI NY
7 ID SD 29 MA
10 CT
4 3 MI
WY 16
3 PA
IA 20 MA 11
NE 6 OH MD RI 4
4 IN 18
NV IL CT 7
UT 11 WV
6 CO VA
6 5 NJ 14
9 KS MO 13
CA 10 KY 8 DE 3
6
55 NC MD 10
TN 11 15
OK DC 3
AZ AR SC
NM 7
11 6 9
5 GA
AL
MS 16
9
6
LA
TX
8
38
FL
29
AK
3
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
Solid Solid
HI
4 Likely Likely
Leans Leans
Toss Up Toss Up
226 BIDEN 187 TOSS UP 125 TRUMP
118 51 57 187 33 29 63
270 ELECTORAL VOTES NEEDED TO WIN
LIKELY BIDEN (51) LEANS BIDEN (57) TOSS UP (187) LEANS TRUMP (33) LIKELY TRUMP (29)
NEW JERSEY (14) NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) PA (20) IA (6) MISSOURI (10) ALASKA (3)
ILLINOIS (20) MAINE* (2) FL (29) NV (6) INDIANA (11) LOUISIANA (8)
MAINE* 1 (1) COLORADO (9) WI (10) AZ (11) MONTANA (3) MISSISSIPPI (6)
RHODE ISLAND (4) MINNESOTA (10) MI (16) TX (38) SOUTH CAROLINA (9) UTAH (6)
WASHINGTON (12) NEW MEXICO (5) OH (15) ME* 2 (1) ARKANSAS (6)
VIRGINIA (13) NC (15) NE* 2 (1)
CONNECTICUT (17) GA (16)
OREGON (7)
*Maine and Nebraska do not award their electoral votes on a “winner
takes all" basis. Consequently, while some electoral votes in
these states are solid or lean in favor of a candidate, one vote
from each state currently sits in the toss up column.
SOURCE: REAL CLEAR POLITICS
FIGURE 2A Biden victory and a net pickup of
3 seats in the Senate would hand the
Democrats control of the executive and
legislative branches
Signum Global Advisors, a policy Health Care unreasonable to think that he would
and strategy consultant, estimates that Health care policy is harder to forecast resign from the Board if not reap-
along with raising the basic corporate at the moment, given that the fate of pointed as Chair.
tax rate from 21% to 28% and other Obamacare hangs in the balance via At the moment there are also two
measures, the overall impact of Biden a Supreme Court challenge that will vacancies on the Board of Governors,
tax reforms could account for as much be taken up in mid-November. If the and the nominees have been lan-
as 10%-12% of corporate earnings per Affordable Care Act is rendered uncon- guishing in the US Senate. The term
share (EPS) on average for the next few stitutional and therefore winds up elim- of current Vice Chair Richard Clarida
years. inated, the response will be to replace expires in 2022.
Currently, consensus earnings expec- it with a Biden version in short order. Furthermore, a President Biden
tations for 2021 are $168 per share We cannot define the contours at the might very well nominate current
(Bloomberg estimates), implying an moment given the unknown outcome Governor Lael Brainard to be Secretary
EPS growth rate of about 25% between in the Supreme Court. We do know that of the Treasury, meaning within the
2020 and 2021. Applying a Biden tax one feature of the Biden health care first two years of a Biden administra-
estimate to corporate earnings implies program would be to create a govern- tion, there could be as many as five
a substantially lower EPS growth rate ment-run Medicare-like public option seats on the seven-member Board to be
of just 10.5%. to compete with private insurance filled, including a Chair and two Vice
The tax plan would raise taxes on plans, and that low-income Americans Chairs, potentially reshaping the Fed
corporations and individuals by over $3 prohibited from accessing Medicaid for a generation.
trillion in the next decade. That said, due to state restrictions would be eli- With respect to international eco-
a Biden administration would poten- gible for premium-free access to that nomic relations, there should be some
tially pump hundreds of billions of public option. climb-down in the current rhetoric
dollars of infrastructure spending into and approach to trade policy, but
the economy, much of it aimed at “buy Fiscal Policy and Trade Biden would likely not be an ardent
American” and green projects ranging Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s free trader — especially with respect to
from broadband to climate-friendly term ends in 2022, and Biden has not China.
programs. Expect a gradual re-empow- indicated if he would reappoint him. Tariffs would probably come down,
erment of unions associated with big- While Powell’s appointment as a Fed particularly as a means to obtain relief
ticket projects. Governor expires in 2028, it is not for those industries that have beenON A KNIFE EDGE: 2020 US SENATE ELECTION MAP
Dems on 47 seats, Reps on 46, with 7 seats in play, 6 of which are held by the GOP
WA ME
MT ND
VT
MN NH
OR WI NY MA
ID SD CT
MI
WY
PA
IA
NE MA
OH MD
NV IL IN RI
WV
UT VA NJ
CO
KS MO KY DE 3
CA
NC
TN
OK AR SC
AZ GA 1
NM
MS AL
GA 2
TX LA
FL
AK
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
Safe Safe
HI
Likely Likely
Leans Leans
Toss Up Toss Up
Pick Ups (CO) Pick Ups (AL)
47 DEMOCRATS 7 TOSS UP 46 REPUBLICANS
40 SAFE OR NOT UP 2 5 7 4 4 38 SAFE OR NOT UP
51 SEATS NEEDED FOR MAJORITY
LIKELY DEM LEANS DEM TOSS UP LEANS GOP LIKELY GOP
NJ: BOOKER (D) AZ: MCSALLY (R) GA1: PERDUE (R) AK: SULLIVAN (R) AL: JONES (D)
VA: WARNER (D) CO: GARDNER (R) IA: ERNST (R) GA2: LOEFFLER (R) KS: OPEN (R)
MN: SMITH (D) ME: COLLINS (R) MS: HYDE-SMITH (R) KY: MCCONNELL (R)
NH: SHAHEEN (D) MI: PETERS (D) TX: CORNYN (R) TN: OPEN (R)
NM: OPEN (D) MT: DAINES (R)
NC: TILLIS (R)
SC: GRAHAM (R)
* Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders
(I-VT) currently caucus with the Democrats.
Current Senate: 47 Democrats, 53 Republicans
SOURCE: REAL CLEAR POLITICS
FIGURE 3If he wins, Biden could find
himself with five Federal
Reserve Board vacancies to fill
in his first term
retaliated against by China, but the legislation difficult to pass. If the cur- agreed to suspend the debt ceiling for
US will probably vigorously confront rent antagonistic political climate two years, but only after intense nego-
trading partners on intellectual prop- endures into a second Trump admin- tiations that saw House Democrats suc-
erty, strategic technologies, and market istration, it is unlikely much would be cessfully demand additional spending
access. accomplished legislatively. for domestic priorities in return for a
Biden’s pro-American economic We would expect that the President debt limit increase.
message will likely extend to the World would continue with his rollback of The debt limit will have to be
Trade Organization (WTO). A Biden those regulations within his authority addressed in the summer of 2021 and
presidency would be unlikely to rein- to repeal. Almost undoubtedly, with it is likely that a Democratic-controlled
vigorate the WTO. The Obama admin- congressional cooperation elusive, House of Representatives would again
istration actually started down the President Trump would attempt to get seek to extract concessions on spending
path of marginalizing the WTO (a pro- as much as possible accomplished via in return for a debt limit increase.
cess greatly exacerbated by President executive order, although the scope of
Trump) by withholding appointments what can be enacted via this method Delayed or Disputed Election
to its appellate body. On the other hand, is limited. There is a nontrivial chance that we
Biden has talked about a “Summit for There is a potential flashpoint encounter a third scenario: the dispir-
Democracy,” and pushed for more mul- coming in the summer of 2021, when iting prospect of a delayed result or dis-
tilateral cooperation on a host of global the federal debt ceiling becomes a puted election cannot be dismissed. An
issues, including rejoining the Paris cli- looming issue, as it has many times in indeterminate outcome, which might
mate accord. Attitudes toward the EU the past. The debt ceiling puts a stat- not be resolved until the end of the
will certainly soften, even though we utory limit on how much debt the US year, could come about in one of sev-
still expect Biden to jealously guard US Treasury can issue and must be raised eral ways.
commercial interests. periodically to allow the government to Mail-in balloting has been on the rise
raise finances. in the US over recent election cycles. By
Trump Win, Divided Congress In the past, raising the debt ceiling 2016, over 23% of ballots cast were by
In the event of President Trump’s has proved to be contentious; memo- mail — either traditional absentee bal-
re e l e c t i o n , i t i s a l s o l i ke l y t h e rably, in 2011 the US came very close to loting or other forms of vote-by-mail.
Republicans would retain the Senate, not raising the ceiling and defaulting on That year, only 60% of all votes were
although they would still likely face a a portion of its public debt. In August cast in-person on Election Day (while
Democratic House, making meaningful 2019, Congress and the President 18% were cast in early voting).A dispiriting scenario of a disputed or delayed election result cannot be excluded A number of states have offered vot- candidate has won the required 270 mean an unresolved, litigated vote well ing-by-mail historically and five rely electoral votes. The President has made past Election Day. exclusively on the practice. Another his opposition to the large number of By law, electors must meet this year 29 states, including important swing mail-in ballots very clear and has ques- on December 14 to choose the next states, offer no-excuses mail-in bal- tioned the integrity of an election with president. All results and disputes have loting in 2020, and some send all their so many mail-in ballots. to be resolved by that date. citizens mail-in ballots without needing It is not difficult to imagine a sce- If there is no President-elect by a request. nario where the results are not known noon on January 20, the law declares The presence of COVID-19 has exac- soon after the in-person polls close and that the Speaker of the House of erbated this trend, and over 76 mil- the President challenges the counting Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, would lion mail-in ballots this year have been of mail-in ballots or otherwise refuses be sworn in as President for a four- requested or sent out. This would rep- to accept the results. year term. Importantly, given her age, resent a staggering 55% of the elec- This nightmare scenario — in addi- she would also choose a vice president torate in 2020 (if we assume 2016-level tion to the implication of President subject to ratification of the Congress. turnout of 137.5 million). Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis — is not This scenario is very unlikely, but The issue is that not all states can out of question, and poses significant there may be quite a few twists and even begin counting their postal ballots risks to the political landscape. turns before we know the identity of until Election Day. This includes key There is some cause for optimism, the next president. swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania however. Given the current polls, there and Wisconsin, all of which are con- is a likelihood that enough key states sidered crucial for either candidate’s representing sufficient electoral votes hopes. Other states may not start will be able to declare a winner on or counting their mail-in ballots until after soon after November 3, or even that the polls have closed on the evening of the election outcome can be declared the election. Of these states the most without a delay in tabulating the John Velis is an FX and Macro notable is Ohio, which has voted for mail-in ballots in those states we have Strategist at BNY Mellon. the winning candidate in every election mentioned. Questions or Comments? since 1964. Nevertheless, the mail-in ballot issue, Write to John.Velis@bnymellon.com It could be days or even weeks after and the President’s opposition to them, or reach out to your usual November 3 before we know which represents a significant risk and could relationship manager.
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