Sustainable Growth Business Plan 2019 2023 - Milan, 18 June 2019 - Gruppo Creval
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Sustainable Growth Business Plan 2019 - 2023 Milan, 18 June 2019
Disclaimer This document contains certain “forward-looking statements”, which expression includes all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts but rather reflect subjective judgments that may or may not prove to be correct, and which are therefore inherently uncertain. All forward-looking statements rely on a number of assumptions, expectations, projections and provisional data concerning future events and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors (including, without limitation, the economic environment and changes in governmental regulations, fiscal policy, planning or laws in the Republic of Italy, other relevant jurisdictions and the EU), many of which are outside the control of Creval. There are a variety of factors that may cause actual results and performance to be materially different from the explicit or implicit contents of any forward- looking statements and thus, such forward-looking statements are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Other factors not presently known to Creval generally, or that Creval presently believes are not material, could also cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this document. Consequently, the actual results might differ from the projections and such differences might be significant. Past performance should not be considered a reliable indicator of future performance and readers of this document are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of Creval. Prospective investors should not therefore place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements. Neither this document nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, may form the basis of, or be relied upon or in connection with, any contract or investment decision. Neither Creval nor any member of the Creval Group nor any of their respective representatives, directors or employees makes any representation, express or implied with respect to such statements nor accepts any liability whatsoever in connection with this document or any of its contents or in relation to any loss arising from its use or from any reliance placed upon it. CreditoValtellinese undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, or to update the reasons for which actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law and regulations. The information, statements and opinions contained in this document are for information purposes only. This document does not constitute an offer or an invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities. In any event, the securities referred to herein have not been registered and will not be registered in the United States under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or in Australia, Canada or Japan or any other jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would require the approval of local authorities or otherwise be unlawful. No securities may be offered or sold in the United States unless such securities are registered under the Securities Act, or an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act is available. Creval does not intend to register any offering of securities in the United States or to conduct a public offering of any securities in the United States. Any public offering of securities to be made in the United States will be made by means of a prospectus and any other document as required by applicable law that may be obtained from Creval and will contain detailed information about the bank and management, as well as financial statements. Copies of this document are not being made and may not be distributed or sent into the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan”. 2
Agenda Today’s Speaker Introductory Remarks @11.00 CET Solid Foundations and Potential A Clear Strategy Effective Initiatives Underpinning the Business Plan Luigi Lovaglio Group CEO Financial Targets Reflecting Sustainable Growth Q&A Session Closing Remarks @13.30 CET 3
Sustainable Growth Business Plan 2019 – 2023: Our Mission “ A solid, low-risk and value-oriented Commercial Bank, focused on Retail and SME Clients in our Regions ” 4
Sustainable Growth Business Plan 2019 – 2023: Our Targets Sustainable Attractive Fortress Cleaner Profitability Dividends Capital Balance Sheet >50% Dividend ~6% / >8% RoE in >14% CET1R FL in
Solid Foundations and Potential 6
Evolving Landscape on the Back of Macro and Industry Trends Implications for Banks Challenging Macro • Flat to limited GDP growth(1) Customer base growth & Environment • “Lower for longer” interest rates environment revenue diversification Change in Consumer • Requirement for a quality omni-channel customer service “Customer first” & Behaviours and Increasing • Growing focus on Customer experience, major driver of Customer choices Customer-centric Expectations • Simple, transparent products and value added services organisation • Historically fragmented Italian banking sector, moving towards a Competitive Landscape progressive consolidation Agile and innovative Evolution • Increased competition from innovative and new value propositions (FinTech) platform • Open Banking (PSD2) model Regulatory Solid and low-risk • Pressure on capital requirements, balance sheet strength and de-risking Environment business model (1) Source: Prometeia March 2019 (0.2%, 0.6%, 0.9% in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively; 0.7% over the period 2022 - 2026). 7
Creval Can Count on a Strong Regional Franchise... 365 Branches Nationwide… …with More than 60% of Loans and Deposits in Northern Italy(1) Centre 8 18% 1 160 Branches North Total: #365 12 56% 18 Sicily 26% 6 8 26 Sicily 2 17% Customer 30 Centre Total: €16bn Loans North Client Breakdown by Type 21% 63% Corporates 6% Sicily SMEs 17% 17% Direct Center Total: €15bn 94 Funding 19% Retail North 77% 64% Longstanding relationships with ~700k Retail and SME Clients Source: Company disclosure and managerial data. (1) Number of branches as of March 2019, customer loans and direct funding as of December 2018. 8
…With More than 50% of the Business in Lombardy, the Largest and Wealthiest Region Lombardy as a % of Creval Key Provinces(2) Selected Metrics(1) Branch # Inhabitants Income / # of Branches m.s. (%) (‘000) Capita (€’000) Sondrio 40 31.0% 181.4 25.3 Direct 53% Funding Milano 38 2.7% 3,235 34.0 Monza e Brianza 18 5.0% 872 30.4 Customer 52% Loans Como 15 4.8% 599 26.0 Lecco 12 5.7% 339 27.0 Revenues 50% Varese 11 3.7% 891 27.3 29.1 Pavia 10 3.7% 546 29.1 Branches 44% Bergamo 6 1.0% 1,110 30.4 Lombardy is the largest region in Italy with 16% of total population and 22% of GDP(2) (1) MIS data as of December 2018. (2) Source: Company disclosure, Banca d’Italia, ISTAT and other publicly available information. 9
Best-in-Class Capital Position… CET1 Ratio Fully Loaded (1Q 2019)(1)(2) Buffer vs. SREP Requirement(1)(3) Memo: 2019 SREP Requirement(4) Credito Valtellinese 14.0% 575 8.3% 1Q 2019 Bank 1 13.5% 417 9.3% Bank 2 13.2% 520 8.0% Bank 3 12.3% 218 10.1% Bank 4 12.2% 324 9.0% Bank 5 12.1% 281 9.3% Bank 6 11.5% 222 9.3% Bank 7 11.2% 120 10.0% Bank 8 10.8% 149 9.3% Credito Valtellinese 10.4% 270 7.7% 2017 (1) Banks include: BMPS, Pop. Sondrio, Banco BPM, BPER, Credem, Intesa Sanpaolo, UBI, UniCredit. (2) Pop. Sondrio figure is transitional. Credem figure refers to Credem Holding. (3) Pop. Sondrio buffer vs. SREP based on transitional CET1 ratio. 10 (4) Creval’s SREP requirement set by Bank of Italy.
…Enabling a Clear Potential for Growth AuM / (Direct + Indirect Funding) Consumer Finance Penetration(1) Mortgage Penetration(1) ~33% ~13% 1.2x 1.4x ~11% ~10% ~24% ~7% 1.3x Source: Managerial benchmarking on “good practice” of selected Italian banks. (1) Refers to retail clients holding consumer finance / mortgage in percentage of total retail clients. Italian average refers to eight major Italian banking institutions. 11
A Clear Strategy 12
Business Plan Built on Two Pillars 1 2 Revamp our Commercial Take Decisive Actions on Banking Platform Legacy Issues Enablers - Our Historic Franchise and Our People 13
1 Revamp Our Commercial Banking Platform Strong Focus on Commercial Bank Enabling Sustainable Growth and Profitability Key Actions A Separate commercial bank from Non-Core unit B Enhance customer-centric proposition C Optimise platform and simplify processes D Reshape credit underwriting and monitoring framework 14
A Separation of Commercial Bank from “Non-Core” Unit to Allow for a Strong Focus on Plan Execution Clearly Identified and Segregated Legacy Non-Core Assets Commercial Bank “Non-Core” Unit Loan GBV breakdown (1Q 2019) As of 1Q 2019 15.3 13.4 Gross Loans €13.4bn(1) €1.9bn Head- ~3,630 ~50 count • Identified owners with dedicated teams 1.9 • Few clear and measurable targets • Balanced KPIs Total Loan Book Performing Exposures Non-Performing Legacy scorecard Exposures (1) Excluding government bonds and GACS securities. 15
A …With Clear Accountability, Fostering a Customer Oriented High Performance Culture Lean and Effective Managerial Set-Up CEO • Owners of specific pillars already identified Head of Head of • Greater focus on Business Plan priorities Head of Small Business Cost Retail Banking Management • Flatter structure closer to customers • Faster decision processes Our Human Capital 16
B Enhance Customer-Centric Proposition Conservative Assumptions Underlying Our Revenue Expansion Targets Euribor 3M / Plan Assumptions Key Considerations (0.3%) (0.2%) 0.3% 0.4% NA NA 0.0% • Industrial plan reflects conservative rates assumptions for the 0.0% (0.1%) medium term: (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.2%) • Euribor 3M future rates estimates consistently negative (0.2%) (0.3%) throughout the projection period (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.4%) • Euribor 3M 2023 capped at 0% (0.5%) • ~60bps more conservative than Prometeia estimates for 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Plan Assumptions(1) Prometeia estimates(2) 2021 (1) Source: Bloomberg; Business Plan assumes Euribor 3 months future rates capped at 0% in 2023. (2) Source: Prometeia; estimates available up to 2021. 17
B Enhance Customer-Centric Proposition Overview of Key Initiatives Delta in Revenues ’19 – ’23 (€m) 1 Win-Back Clients and • Set-up of specific “win-back” programs Scale-up New Client • New approach to leads generation, fully integrated into commercial processes ~20 Acquisition • Full deployment of digital channel to attract young customers 2 • Improvement of analytical capabilities to increase share of wallet Household Financing • Product range enrichment, also leveraging on partners’ support ~35 • Digital sales 3 • Full deployment of private banking model leveraging on our presence in wealthy regions Step-up Advisory Role • Enhanced service model for affluent clients with support from our partners ~25 on Wealth Management • Introduction of active customer life-cycle management practices to deliver better customer value • Product range enhancement across wealth bands, with better online and digital capabilities 4 • Best through-the-cycle banking partner for our small business clients, the most Renewed Commercial attractive in the sector Proposition for Small • Increased focus on low-risk and export-oriented players to support asset mix ~25 Business • Small business hunters • Kick-start and development at scale of our new factoring platform Total: ~105 18
C Optimise Platform and Simplify Processes Overview of Key Initiatives Reduction in Costs Post Efficiency Initiatives ’19 – ’23 (€m) 1 Rigorous and Disciplined Non-HR • Centralisation of cost management with enhanced accountability Cost Management • “Zero-based” approach to costs ~30 • Demand management optimisation and segregation of procurement 2 Streamlining of Processes to • Centralisation of back office and digital migration Improve Agility, Services and • End-to-end review of processes and policies to redeploy resources for ~15 value-added commercial activities Efficiency • Migration of standard transactions to digital and advanced ATMs • Reduction of products’ variants 3 • Review of branch formats and coverage optimisation Optimisation of Real Estate • Consolidation and relocation of central functions ~10 Portfolio • Reduction of rented spaces through relocation into unoccupied proprietary buildings Total: ~55 19
B C Redeploying Our Human Capital to Value-Added Commercial Activities 600 ~500 ~500 500 • Refocus on selected and specific ~240 value-added commercial / front-end ~240 Commercial400 Headcount Roles activities for each reskilled Repositioned to employee 300 commercial roles Dedicated ~50 • Enhanced training framework with NPE Unit 200 Streamlining of tailored and dedicated programs to Processes to reposition skills within the Group ~220 Back Office 100 Improve Agility, Services and • Full utilisation of our existing Efficiency 0 human capital # of Employees to Target2023 Employee Be Reskilled Structure 20
B C More than €20m Investments to Support the Plan Investments for Growth and Evolution €m ~5 ~40% ~14 ~19-22 ~60% 2018 Average 2019-2020 Investments Opex / Acquisition Costs Investments for Growth Evolution Investments (1) Assuming deployment of investments in the first two years of the plan (2019-2020) 21
D Reshape Credit Underwriting and Monitoring Framework Overview of Key Initiatives 1 • No more lending to lowest-rated clients Significant Strengthening of Credit • Discipline in execution of credit policies Standards • Refocus on revolving and self-liquidating facilities ~40bps 2 Cost of Risk Reduction • Timely and effective intervention from early warning signal with Enhancement of Early Warning dedicated centralised team In the Commercial Bank Systems • Improved capabilities in identifying riskiest exposures through by 2023 of which enhanced monitoring systems ~35bps already 3 achieved in 2021(1) Systematic Consequence • Definition of clear processes and responsibilities to timely deal Management and Increased with problematic exposures already in the first 30 days Oversight of Outsourcers • More efficient management of collection outsourcers (1) Compared to 2019. 22
1 Revamp Our Commercial Banking Platform Improvement of Operating Results Through Revenues and Cost Initiatives €m Delta 2019 – 21 Delta 2021 – 23 Delta 2019 - 23 Incremental Revenues from ~65 ~40 ~105 Commercial Initiatives Reduction in Costs Post Efficiency ~40 ~15 ~55 Initiatives Incremental Gross Operating Profit ~105 ~55 ~160 bps 2019 2021 2023 Cost of Risk ~90 ~55 ~50 Incremental Contribution to Operating Profit of ~€105m by 2021 and ~€160m by 2023 ~40bps Cost of Risk Reduction 23
2 Take Decisive Actions on Legacy Issues 2 Key Actions A Decisive Run-Down of Non-Core Unit B Reduction of Securities Portfolio 24
A Decisive Run-Down of Non-Core Unit The Current Stock of UTP and Bad Loans Will Be Reduced by Approximately 80% Levers • Creation of a separate €1.9bn portfolio with current UTP and Bad Loans Segregation of Current NPEs • Dedicated unit for management of the portfolio, to reduce exposure by ~80% by 2023 • Clear targets and timing of execution with identified ownership and accountability • Proactive restructuring for specific exposures Proactive Management of Stock and • Definition of sale strategies on pledged real estate New Flows • Set-up of specific action plan for each position in order to maximise cure rates • Strategic approach to NPEs portfolios on the back of comprehensive analysis of economic and capital NPE Disposals implications 25
A Decisive Run-Down of Non-Core Unit (Cont’d) Evolution of Non-Core NPEs portfolio Key Considerations Evolution of NPEs Portfolio(1) (€bn) • Substantial rundown by 2023 (c. 80%) leveraging on 1.9 disposals targeted by 2020 and improving recoveries • NPE disposal plan fully funded by leveraging on already identified sources, neutralising capital impacts while maintaining positive levels of profitability (0.8) • Proactive management of remaining NPEs leveraging a team of 50 fully dedicated employees (0.3) • Expected improvement of cure-rate from 2% in 2018 to 0.4 (0.3) (0.1) 6% by 2023, narrowing the gap vs. 9% average of the sector 1Q 2019 NPE Disposals Recoveries / Write-Offs Migration to Bonis 2023 NPE Stock Stock Collections / Other (1) Write-offs and migrations based on statistical evidence. 26
B Reduction of Securities Portfolio Financial Assets Evolution Key Considerations Financial Assets (€bn) ~(50)% 7.9 • Reduction of securities portfolio according to its current 1.7 maturity profile and unwinding of REPO transactions 5.5 • Buffer of unencumbered High Quality Liquid Asset to fully 1.0 4.0 maintained, ensuring a strong liquidity position 0.5 • Tactical disposals in case of favourable windows of 6.2 opportunities (not factored in the plan) 4.4 3.5 2018 2021 2023 Other (1) Govies (1) Other includes mainly retained GACS. 27
Effective Initiatives Underpinning the Business Plan 28
C1 Win-Back Clients and Scale Up Clients Acquisition Selected Examples of Untapped Opportunities Selected Examples of Identified Levers • Target 85k customers who left the bank in the last two years accounting for >€1.4bn • Welcome back package Win-back saving volumes • Dedicated senior involvement • Focus on top 25% relationships, representing ~90% of lost volumes • “New-to-bank” young customers of ~500k • New digital acquisition channels offering innovative products with in the Italian market support from social media platforms New • Referral programs from existing clients • Special offers with bonus Customers with a leads generation of ~100k • Special offers for transactions within Creval ecosystem and for credit • Customers and suppliers of our borrowers facilities for business related to our borrowers SME • SMEs in Lombardy export 50% of their • Fully-fledged import/export package and advanced discount Exporters turnover of receivables Source: Confindustria Lombardia and Bocconi University; Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. 29
C2 Household Financing Selected Examples of Untapped Opportunities Selected Examples of Identified Levers • Leverage on clients with salary already channeled to the bank (150k) and not tapped by consumer lending • Creval penetration on consumer lending • Pre-approval process for high-potential clients that have already been on existing customers at ~7% compared identified (€200m potential growth in stock) Consumer • Exploit full capabilities of digital channels aiming at “one-click” products to ~10% of selected comparables(1) Finance • Sector volumes growing at c. 3% CAGR in • Up-scale of CRM functionalities for early identification of customers’ consumer finance segment behaviour and changing needs • Special offer to customers currently borrowing from other banks • Proactive top-up on selected clients • Creval’s penetration on mortgages on • Leverage on more than 140k customers with salary already channeled to Mortgages existing customers at 10% compared to the bank and not yet tapped by mortgage ~13% of selected comparables(1) • Optimisation of partnerships with real estate agents • Marginally deployed cross-selling with CPI products • Bundled offer of financing and CPI CPI products Source: Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. (1) “Good practice” of selected Italian banks 30
C3 Step-Up Advisory Role on Wealth Management Selected Examples of Untapped Opportunities Selected Examples of Identified Levers • Enhancement of private banking coverage in our richest areas of Territorial • High potential network located in the presence presence and wealthiest region of Italy • "Wealth Management Academy" to improve Relationship Managers skills PB Network on wealth management • Introduction of a Wealth Management unit to manage strategy, • Creval’s AuM over total funding of 24% commercial planning and pricing Indirect vs 33% of selected companies • Continued innovation in product offering Funding Mix • Untapped potential on lower affluent • Financial advisory tools to support RM on portfolio management and customers, compared to other wealth • Increased in-branch level of service, thanks to introduction of new Penetration bands (10% under-penetration vs. advisory model selected comparables) • Introduction of a home-offer advisory model, to allow a premium service for high-potential clients Non-Life • Limited cross selling of non-Life • Bundled offer also via digital Insurance insurance products on affluent clients Source: Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. 31
C4 Renewed Commercial Proposition for Small Business Selected Examples of Untapped Opportunities Selected Examples of Identified Levers • Lower penetration compared to other segments in • Pre-approval process for customers already identified with high SME financing better rated clients rating (€400m volume potential) Customer • Fastest growing segment with privileged • Special and targeted actions toward former top-rated borrowers Credit Profile positioning in Lombardy, the region with largest (c. 2,000 clients with an exposure of around €150m) SMEs in terms of turnover and employees • Lower non-lending income compared to sector • Leverage fully-fledged offer including import / export products Revenue Quality (22% vs 26% for selected companies) • Online deposits Portfolio • Current split (70% MT vs 65% for selected companies of the sector) to tend towards • Simple and expedite access to revolving credit lines Rebalancing short term products Source: Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. 32
C1 Rigorous and Disciplined Non-HR Cost Management Clearly Identified Actions on Costs Selected Examples of Addressable Cost Items • Optimisation of processes to better assess demand and definition of expense targets Demand • Centralisation of several cost owners under one unit, • Currently 15 cost owners Optimisation acting as unique interface for costs demand within the Group • Segregation of procurement activities Renegotiation • Renegotiation / revision of current contracts, • On average up to ~€50m worth of contracts subject to of Contracts including IT agreements renegotiation every year Review of • Redefinition of spending policies and processes in a • 17% of total SG&A relating to consultancy and Processes / zero-based perspective professional services Policies Source: Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. 33
C2 Streamlining of Processes to Improve Agility, Services and Efficiency Clearly Identified Actions on Costs Selected Examples of Addressable Cost Items • Refocus branches on client-facing activities, leveraging centralisation of back-office processes Centralisation of Back Office • Reskilling of resources switching to new roles • Currently
C3 Optimisation of Real Estate Portfolio Clearly Identified Actions on Costs Selected Examples of Addressable Cost Items • Adjust branch format to reflect new commercial focus: • Fully-digital branches (Bancaperta model) • Currently 14 branches with Cost / Income Branch >100% Format and • Stand-alone branches with advanced ATMs Coverage • 30-40 branches already clearly identified in • Flagship branches, with differentiated offering close proximity across segments • Consolidation of overlapping branches Consolidation • Consolidation and relocation of central functions into • 11 properties for headquarter use in 4 different of Central fewer number of Creval’s properties cities for a total of ~70k sqm Functions • Proprietary real estate assets per employee of €106k Reduction of • Termination of unnecessary rental agreements vs. sector average of 72 Rented • Maximisation of utilisation level (m2 / resource) through • Average sqm per employee of ~60 vs ~30 for Spaces redesign of spaces / upgrade of internal layouts comparables • Rent costs of ~€6k vs ~€4.5k for comparables Source: Managerial figures, benchmarking analysis. 35
Financial Targets Reflecting Sustainable Growth 36
Key Financial Targets Recap Incremental Reduction in CoR Revamp our Revenues vs. 2019 Costs vs. 2019 Commercial Bank Commercial Banking Platform ~€65m by 2021 ~€40m by 2021 ~55bps in 2021 ~€105m by 2023 ~€55m by 2023 ~50bps in 2023 Run-Down of Reduction of Take Decisive Non-Core Securities Actions on Legacy Portfolio Issues ~80% by 2023 ~50% by 2023 37
Well-Diversified Funding Plan Focus on Institutional Funding Covered Bonds Stock (€bn) Funding and Liquidity Ratios 2.0 • Issuance of covered bonds to diversify >100% >100% 1.0 sources of funding • Progressive decrease of reliance on ECB facilities 2021 2023 Senior Bonds Stock (€m) 600 600 • Issuance of senior bonds LCR NSFR to replace maturing retail bonds Business Plan to result in Group’s funding and liquidity ratios well above regulatory requirements 2021 2023 38
Bringing It All Together Net Income Evolution Net Income Evolution (€m) – Commercial Bank Net Income Evolution (€m) – Group ROE (%) 2% ~6% >8% >€100m 150 138 88 93 31 Commercial Bank 2021 Commercial Bank 2023 Group 2018 Group 2021 Group 2023 39
Bringing It All Together Selected P&L Items for The Group in 2021 and 2023 €m 2021 2023 A Net Interest Income 357 361 B Net Fees & Commission Income 284 308 Operating Profit 650 678 C Operating Costs (424) (400) Net Operating Profit 226 278 D LLPs (94) (81) Net Profit 93 138 40
A Focus on Net Interest Income Evolution €m Delta 2019 – 21 Delta 2021 – 23 Delta 2019 – 23 Incremental Net Interest Income ~33 ~23 ~55 Commercial Bank Forgone Interest Income on Non-Core ~(10) ~(10) ~(20) NPEs Stabilisation of Institutional Funding, Run-Down of Securities Portfolio, ~(16) ~(10) ~(25) Unwinding of REPO transactions(1) Total Impact on Net Interest Income ~7 ~3 ~10 Commercial Bank contribution offsetting the decisive balance sheet strengthening and asset quality actions, enabling sustainable growth and profitability (1) Includes impacts from maturing retail bonds and rates effect throughout the Business Plan. 41
B Focus on Net Interest Income Mix Net Interest Income by Customer Segment 54% 52% 50% 46% 48% 50% 2018 2021 2023 Retail Corporate Rebalancing of Net Interest Income mix towards Retail 42
B Focus on Fees and Commissions Commission Income as a % of Core Banking Income(1) Asset Management as a % Commission Income 641 641 669 253 284 308 57% 56% 54% 65% 64% 63% 43% 44% 46% 35% 36% 37% 2018 2021 2023 2018 2021 2023 Net Fees & Commission Income Net Interest Income Asset Management Other Net Fees & Commission Income Expected growth through increased penetration and conversion of direct funding into indirect funding (1) Core banking income defined as the sum of Commission Income and Net Interest Income 43
C Focus on Operating Costs Evolution of Personnel Expenses (€m) Evolution of Non-HR Costs and D&A (€m) 19 282 263 264 3 266 257 202 160 143 Cost reduction initiatives more than offsetting impact of contractual obligations over the plan 2018 Contractual 2021 Post 2021 Contractual 2023 Post 2023 2018 2021 2023 Obligations to Contractual Obligations to Contractual 2021 Obligations 2023 Obligations # Head- Cost / Income Ratio Evolution ~3.7k ~3.5k ~3.4k count 70% 65% 59% • Natural attrition resulting in ~300 headcount decrease over the plan, allowing to absorb impact of national contract renewal as well as bonus payments factored in the plan • As a result, personnel expenses to slightly decrease throughout the plan • Decrease in administrative expenses, driven by cost initiatives, including centralisation of cost management, “zero-based” approach and optimisation of RE portfolio 2018 (1) 2021 2023 (1) 2018 recurring. 44
D Focus on Asset Quality Cost of Risk – Group (bps) NPE Ratio – Group (%) GBV (€bn) 2.0 1.2 1.1 ~60 Gross NPE Ratio (%) 11% ~50
Commercial Volumes Evolution Customer Loans by Segment (GBV, €bn) 27% 33% 35% 16.0 16.0 16.4 8.5 8.4 9.3 • Significant portfolio rebalancing over the plan horizon, with Retail clients increasing share to ~50% • Household financing reaching ~35% of total loans 7.6 8.0 6.7 2018 2021 2023 Household financing as a Retail Corporate % of total loans 46
Customer Savings Evolution Direct Funding (€bn) 15 16 17 32% 33% 32% • Continued growth in AuM and life insurance through our asset management and bancassurance partnerships, also via asset shift from direct funding 68% 67% 68% 2018 2021 2023 Retail Corporate Total Customer Savings (€bn) AuM / Direct Funding (%) 25 28 30 60% 58% 56% 61% 54% 46% 40% 42% 44% 2018 2021 2023 2018 2021 2023 Indirect Funding Direct Funding 47
Regulatory Capital Evolution Fully Loaded CET1 Ratio Evolution 0.74% 0.61% 14.5% 14.1% (0.19% ) 14.0% (0.62% ) 1Q19 CET1R Business Regulation / Other 2021 CET1R Business Regulation / Other 2023 CET1R Development Development # RWA (€bn) 10.1 10.2 10.4 Dividend Policy: • 50% payout ratio starting from 2020 and 75% from 2022 48
Q&A Session 49
You can also read