Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates
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12.1% 10 to 30% 13.8% vacancy rate decrease annualized in rental rates rotation rate Street Retail knightfrank.com/research Market Saint Petersburg 2020
6 A new retailer IKEA first Eurospar entered small-format St. Petersburg market; store was opened SPAR Middle Volga at 23 Nevsky Ave in LLC is engaged in its On July 23, 2020, St. Petersburg. development. the Governor of St. Petersburg signed a Law to prohibit serving alcohol in bars, pubs, and other KEY EVENTS establishments with an area below 50 sq m The Italian luxury located in apartment brand Brunello buildings (effective Cucinelli moved from January 1, 2021). The government B. Konyushennaya St of St. Petersburg to 113 Nevsky Ave imposed stricter where they rented coronavirus measures the space of about for the New Year 500 sq m. holiday period. In accordance with a new revision of Governor’s Decree No. 121, catering outlets were closed for guests between Many businesses that used built-in commercial December 30, 2020 premises have almost entirely stopped operating and January 3, 2021. due to COVID-19 restrictions. Most of them were fully closed on March 26, 2020. The restrictions were somewhat eased in June and fully lifted on July 27, 2020. Key metrics. Dynamics* Average Change property size, Vacancy rate in vacancy rates Rotation Leading tenants’ sq m. (% of sq m) 2020/2019, p. p. rate**, % sector Primary shopping corridors 135.0 12.7 ▲ 6.1 12.4 ▲ Public catering in the central districts Secondary shopping corridors 105.5 12.8 ▲ 6.5 13.4 ▼ Public catering in the central districts Primary shopping corridors 86.0 11.0 ▲ 3.9 15.2 ▲ Grocery stores in bedroom communities Secondary shopping corridors 100.4 8.5 ▼ -0.2 15.3 ▲ Grocery stores in bedroom communities Pedestrian shopping corridors 96.5 12.9 ▲ 6.9 16.5 ▲ Public catering Pedestrian shopping corridors are streets with a pedestrian flow in the central districts of the city, such as M. Sadovaya St, 1st Sovetskaya St, Telezhny Lane, M. Konyushennaya St, 6-7-ya Liniya V.O. Primary shopping corridors in the central districts are the main streets in these districts, as well as avenues featuring the highest car and pedestrian traffic and main business activities concentrated around them, such as Nevsky Ave, Bolshoy Ave P. S., Kamennoostrovsky Ave, and Moskovsky Ave. Secondary shopping corridors in the central districts are streets in these districts that are adjacent to the primary shopping arteries of the city that feature the highest car and pedestrian traffic or are located in close vicinity to them. These include B. Morskaya St, B. Konyushennaya St, Rubinshteina St, Vladimirsky Ave, M. Morskaya St, Mayakovskogo St, Vosstaniya St, Kirochnaya St, Zagorodny Ave, Gorokhovaya St, Sadovaya St, Sredny Ave V.O., Ligovsky Ave, Nekrasova St, Zhukovskogo St, Belinskogo St, Kazanskaya St. Primary shopping corridors in bedroom communities are large non-central arterial streets that connect together several districts of the city. They feature the concentration of business activities and/or a significant amount of residential development projects, both completed and in progress in the adjacent areas. Some of the examples include Leninsky Ave, Slavy Ave, Komendantsky Ave, and Prosveshcheniya Ave. Secondary shopping corridors in bedroom communities are streets in densely populated bedroom communities, which mainly have residential buildings, such as Entuziastov Ave/ Industrialny Ave, Baltiyskaya Zhemchuzhina quarters, Optikov St / Turistskaya St. * As compared to 2019 ** The calculation of rotation rates only takes into account premises occupied by tenants in compared the periods Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021
Supply In 2020, the total area of street retail The most demanded premises are spaces was 614.9 thousand sq m. This less than 100 sq m (63% of all spaces represents 0.6% growth from the available in the market). Properties previous year on account of converting from 100 sq m to 200 sq m account for some premises within the shopping 26% of the total supply. The remaining Anna Lapchenko corridors in bedroom communities into 11% are accounted for by larger spaces Head of Street Retail commercial outlets. The downward with an area of 500 sq m and more. Knight Frank St Petersburg trend of the average area size of the The breakdown of tenants continues occupied spaces continued throughout to be led by three sectors: public In 2020, the street retail market has the reporting year: 109.3 sq m in 2020 catering (30%), groceries (13%), and proven to be flexible and resilient to against 110.5 sq m in 2019. The downward clothing (9%). At the same time, external impacts, regardless of the full trend of the amount of spaces rented the area occupied by catering and suspension of business in commercial is driven by splitting larger properties clothing decreased by 9.5% and 7.6% premises in Q2 and partial restrictions into several units or creating multi- respectively, compared to 2019 results. in Q4 2020. Due to a well-considered format facilities where several tenants On the other hand, in terms of volume policy of rental charges pursued by share a property with a single entrance. of spaces occupied, the food retail most landlords in the period of bans on This trend is particularly noticeable in sector increased its presence by 5.6% business, the rotation rate remained bedroom communities, in local streets on account of the expansion of chains within the range comparable with the where the average property size dropped (such as VkusVill, Eurospar, Vkuster, levels registered in 2019, reaching 6.5% down to 100.4 sq m over the year. Magnit, etc.). 13.8%. 2020 was marked with tough calls and challenges that not all market Top-10 profiles of tenants who opened stores in 2020 players were able to handle. Thus, the Public catering 28% volume of spaces occupied by café and Grocery stores 16% restaurant tenants decreased by 9.5%, Clothing 9% banks and microfinance firms by 13.9%, Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics 8% and telephones by 12.4%. Office. Sales office 5% At the same time, internet retailers, Beauty salon 4% such as OZON, CDEK and Wildberries, Banks. Microfinance Services 3% took advantage of the restrictions to Household goods 2% launch an active expansion strategy Construction materials 2% and increased their market presence Medical services 2% more than two times in 2020. Also, Others 20% worth mentioning is a 1 percentage point increase in the share accounted 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% for by fashion retailers in total new Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 openings compared to 2019. It was possible on account of brands, such as Brunello Cucinelli, Bretling, and Canali in Nevsky Ave, Sandro, Maje, and Top-10 profiles of tenants who closed stores in 2020 Paul&Shark in Bolshoy Ave P. S., which Public catering 34% play a significant role for the market. Grocery stores 10% A decrease in rental rates was an Clothing 9% expected outcome of the restrictions Beauty salon 5% for the market. Shopping corridors Banks. Microfinance Services 5% in bedroom communities were least Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics 5% affected due to the generation of traffic Household goods 3% by local residents, in particular, in Jewelry 3% connection with shifting to remote work Services. Photo services 3% routines. The greatest decrease was Shoes 3% registered in the city’s central locations Others 22% because of the decreasing a numbers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% of office workers and a substantial drop Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 in the tourist traffic.
Distribution the amount of premises by ranges of occupied areas number of occupied premises average area of premises total of 4,000 2,000 sq m 1,861 3,500 3,000 1,500 2,500 2,000 1,000 1,500 666 1,000 500 379 500 247 139 0 52 0 less than 100 sq m 100–200 sq m 201–300 sq m 301–500 sq m 501–1,000 sq m over 1,000 sq m Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 Overall, the number of opened stores was 25% less than the closed ones. Top 10 profiles in the structure of tenants, by occupied area Public catering operators traditionally dominate in the breakdown of both Public catering 30% opened and closed tenants, accounting Grocery stores 13% for 28% and 34%, respectively. Clothing 9% Some of the newly opened cafes and Banks. Microfinance Services 6% restaurants include Kazan Mangal, Medical services 5% Taproom, DoDo Pizza, Volkonsky in Nevsky Ave, Hachapuri I vino, Kakha Beauty salon 4% Bar in Bolshoy Ave P. S., Bar Darmadzhi Household goods 4% in Kamennoostrovsky Ave. The city’s Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics 4% main restaurant street Rubinshteina Cosmetics and perfumery 2% was not aside from the new openings, Construction materials 2% there was opened GUCHI (Del Mar Others 21% Group), Flor, Monkey bar, Noir, and others. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Due to the rapid development of Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 e-commerce during the pandemic, delivery services of online stores, such as OZON, CDEK and Wildberries, more than doubled the leased spaces they Rotation rates by shopping corridor in 2020 rent in built-in commercial premises Primary shopping corridors in the central districts in 2020. It should be noted that pickup Secondary shopping corridors in the central districts stores are developed not only in street Primary shopping corridors in bedroom communities retail premises, but also use sub-leased Secondary shopping corridors in bedroom communities spaces in drugstores and grocery stores. Pedestrian shopping corridors During the unsettled epidemiological situation, there was a rise in the number of new pharmacies: in 2020, the area of properties occupied by this group of tenants increased by 15%. 12.4% 13.4% 15.2% 15.3% 16.5% As for the decrease in the amount of leased spaces, the banking and Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 microfinance segment reduced their areas by 13.9% (5% of the total tenants’ share in St. Petersburg). In addition On the fashion segment, changes For example, in B. Konyushennaya St, to sex stores, the biggest drops primarily involve rotation in premium the Agona rented some of the premises were observed for children’s goods, locations, such as Bolshoy Ave P. S., occupied by the Cashmere and Silk jewelleries, and footwear stores. B. Konyushennaya St, and Nevsky Ave. boutique. The Brunello Cucinelli
Profiles of tenants with the largest and the smallest dynamics of changes in occupied space Sex stores -36.1% Children's goods -29.2% Jewelry -15.6% Shoes -15.3% Tourism -14.1% Banks. Microfinance Services -13.9% Telephones -12.4% Services. Photo services -11.7% Public catering -9.5% Education -9.1% Clothing -7.6% 9.3% Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics 11.1% Service center. Repairs 16.0% Accessories 17.2% Tea and coffee 18.8% Automobile 19.2% Tobacco 26.5% Office. Sales office -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 boutique moved from this shopping corridor to Nevsky Ave. The Lorena Antoniazzi and Herno stores were closed, giving place to a Fabiana Filippi boutique which moved from a location in the same shopping corridor. MINT clothing store was opened in this location (which previously rented premises in Liteyny Ave) also as other brands such as Maje, Sandro, and Paul&Shark. There is a trend of high-profile and successful online retailers going offline using rented premises for opening show rooms. Some of the examples include a new accessories store by Millz Karta in Canali Boutique, 141 Nevsky Ave. Transaction by Knight Frank St Petersburg B. Konyushennaya St, To Be Blossom in Liteyny Ave and Bolshoy Ave P. S. A street review shows that in some In the main shopping corridors Some tenants taking the advantage corridors the rotation rates grew slower in the central districts, the vacancy of the situation with vacant premises in 2020 than in the previous year. This rates ranged from 9% (in the main were able to move to locations better is in particular true about pedestrian part of Nevsky Ave) to 15% (in suited for their business needs. and secondary shopping corridors in Kamennoostrovsky Ave) in the end As at the end of the year 2020, the the central locations. of 2020. Among the most popular rotation rate was on average 13.8%, As at the end of 2020, the total locations in secondary streets in the which is 1.5 percentage points higher vacant area of street retail properties city centre, the lowest shares of vacancy compared to 2019. It should be noted was 74.2 thousand sq m, which is an rates were seen in Rubinshteina St (5%), that rotation in 2020 rates in the main 80% increase from 2019. The share of as it still remains highly sought-after shopping corridors in both central vacant spaces was on average 12.1%, by tenants, and M. Morskaya St (4%). locations and bedroom communities showing a 5.3 percentage point increase The highest vacancy rates are registered higher than in the secondary compared to the previous year. Without in Nekrasova St (22%: with the major shopping corridors in the respective taking into account those premises closures being Rostelecom, Volna café, locations. The highest rotation was that were vacant in 2019, the area of Tili-Testo bakery, and Pietra bar) and in observed in 6-7-ya Liniya V.O. (23.2%), properties vacated by tenants totalled Vladimirsky Ave (21%: the closed stores Kamennoostrovsky Ave (19.7%), and about 50 thousand sq m or 8.7% of the include Togas, Samsonite, Thomas B. Konyushennaya St (18.5%). total amount of street retail spaces. Munz, Green Box, and others).
Rates Ranges and dynamics of rental rates by shopping corridor The restrictions imposed in the middle Average range of the year and during the New Year of rental rates, Street RUB per sq m holidays caused significant losses to category Streets per month Dynamics businesses which were forced to stay Pedestrian M. Sadovaya (p) 3,000–5,440 ▼ idle or had their permitted working shopping corridors 1-ya Sovetskaya (p) 1,700–2,800 ▼ hours (especially on the public catering Telezhny Lane (p) 2,400–4,800 ▼ segment) considerably curtailed. The main decline in the basic rental rates M. Konyushennaya (p) 2,000–3,500 ▼ from 10 to 30% was observed in mid- 6-7 Liniya (p) 2,000–4,400 ▼ 2020. In the second half of the year, Primary Leninsky Ave 1,620–5,200 ▼ only some owners adjusted further shopping corridors Slavy Ave 1,170–2,500 ▼ minor reduction in asking rates within in bedroom communities Komendantsky Ave 1,530–4,320 ▼ a range of 2 to 5%. Prosveshcheniya Ave 1,620–4,050 ▼ The smallest reduction in asking rental rates was seen in bedroom Secondary Entuziastov/Industrialny 1,530–3,150 ▼ shopping communities, in Rubinshteina St and corridors Baltiyskaya Zhemchuzhina 1,350–2,700 ▼ in bedroom 1-ya Sovetskaya St. However, if new communities Optikov/Turistskaya 1,170–2,700 ▼ rules for obtaining alcohol licenses (an Primary Nevsky Ave 5,250–11,000 ▼ increased distance from a restaurant shopping corridors Bolshoy Ave P. S. 1,600–3,840 ▼ and children’s institutions/medical in the central districts Kamennoostrovsky Ave 1,280–4,160 ▼ facilities/educational establishments) are introduced, rates for properties Moskovsky Ave 2,000–5,600 ▼ in the main restaurant street of Secondary B. Morskaya St 2,240–4,960 ▼ shopping St. Petersburg may continue to go down corridors B. Konyushennaya St 2,800–7,200 ▼ in the future. in the central districts Rubinshteina St 3,600–6,300 ▼ The largest decreased in asking Vladimirsky Ave 2,400–3,600 ▼ rates occurred in the city’s main M. Morskaya St 2,000–4,000 ▼ shopping corridor, Nevsky Ave, there was a reduction from 30 to 33%. In Mayakovskogo St 2,000–3,200 ▼ Sadovaya St, rates dropped within a Vosstaniya St 2,000–5,200 ▼ range of 20 to 25%. As a rule, corridors Kirochnaya St 1,440–6,000 ▼ with the highest rates are more Zagorodny Ave 2,160–3,600 ▼ sensitive to crises and higher rates Gorokhovaya St 1,440–3,600 ▼ are always subject to more significant Sadovaya St 2,800–7,500 ▼ drops. Sredny Ave V.O. 2,000–6,400 ▼ Ligovsky Ave 1,520–5,040 ▼ Forecast Liteyny Ave 1,520–4,800 ▼ Until the end of 2021, the main market Nekrasova St 1,840–3,200 ▼ trend will be for tenants to maintain Zhukovskogo St 1,760–3,200 ▼ their existing positions and be flexible Belinskogo St 2,800–4,800 ▼ in negotiations with owners in search Kazanskaya St 1,600–2,400 ▼ for the best conditions. As at the end of Radishcheva St 1,360–1,600 ▼ 2020, the catering sector accounted for Pestelya St 1,360–2,000 ▼ a 6 percentage point lower share of the total number of openings as compared 10–15% 16–20% 21–30% over 30% to the same period of the previous year. If restrictions resume even for a short Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021 * The rate is inclusive of VAT (20%) period of time and a new decree on sale of alcohol is enacted, the rotation will continue on the segment of cafes and Street retail premises in bedroom Now we can expect that the rates are restaurants which accounted for 29% communities of the city will be least likely to be reinstated until the end of of the total number of premises that affected due to the generation of traffic 2021; however, it is unlikely that they will changed tenants in 2020. by local residents. return to the pre-crisis level of 2019.
STREET RETAIL DEPARTMENT ♦ Impeccable business reputation ♦ Business ethics and transparency in our activities more than 700 ♦ Long experience working on the market of St. Petersburg (since 2005) ♦ Leadership on the street retail segment supported by our knowledge of the market and compliance with international quality standards offers ♦ Maximum involvement of our consultants in addressing problems of any level of complexity Our services RUB 350 Representation of tenants and buyers: million in aggregate ▪ full-service transaction support transactions ▪ selection of premises; listing of available offers in 2020 ▪ retail real estate market research ▪ cost-effectiveness projections based on competitive analysis ▪ market forecasts and rental rate projections Representation of owners: ▪ full-service transaction support ▪ project marketing 25,000 sq m ▪ recommendations on pricing of spaces sold ▪ search for and selection of buyers/tenants ▪ tenant mix optimization services ▪ property utilization assessment Anna Lapchenko Head of Street Retail anna.lapchenko@ru.knightfrank.com Please contact us to learn more about our services or clarify any questions you may have: +7 (812) 363 22 22 spb@ru.knightfrank.com For other reports, please visit Analytics on our website
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