State of the Markets Inside Views on the Health and Productivity of the Global Innovation Economy - Silicon Valley Bank
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State of the Markets Inside Views on the Health and Productivity of the Global Innovation Economy Third Quarter 2018 SPECIAL REPORT: China’s Tech Growth Strategy
State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018 4 Bull Run: Tech Outswings the Market 8 Exit Conditions: Dual-Tracks Open 13 Emerging Sectors: Tech in the Real World 17 Venture in China: Investment Playbook 21 Spotlight on Shenzhen: Entrepreneurial Success 24 Southeast Asia: Expanding Influence State of the Markets: Q3’18 2
State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018 Tech Titans Dominate Recent headlines might be all about tariffs, potential trade wars and turmoil, but investors’ appetite for tech appears unabated. Tech titans continue to lead this bull market and monopolize top slots as the most valuable U.S. companies. Yet while the IPO window remains open for emerging companies and both strategic and financial buyers have ample cash on hand for deals, investors and operators would be wise to acknowledge the underlying risks. The venture economy is not immune to economic downturns, so global growth rates bear watching. Of course investors’ love affair with tech is not a U.S. phenomenon. This quarter we travel to China, which has quickly established itself as a leading innovation economy with a proliferation of young unicorns. The “hardware capital” of Shenzhen offers a fascinating case study, evolving from sleepy fishing village, to low-value manufacturing, to global tech powerhouse in just a generation. China’s influence is spreading to Southeast Asia by exporting tech and establishing programs to partner with neighboring countries. The influence of Chinese tech is not a passing phase, but rather it’s just the beginning. Bob Blee Head of Corporate Finance Silicon Valley Bank State of the Markets: Q3’18 3
U.S. Tech Giants Worth More Than Next 10 Companies A decade of robust consumer and business spending has helped tech lock down the top five slots as the most valuable U.S. companies. Still, tech is susceptible to larger swings than the overall market. Top 5 vs. Next 10: Highest Market Cap at 6/30/18 Cumulative Returns for S&P 500 Tech vs. S&P 500 $4.0T $3.8T 350% S&P 500 Information Technology #5 S&P 500 Market Index $3.5T 300% #4 $3.1T $3.0T 250% $2.5T 200% #3 $2.0T 150% #2 $1.5T 100% $1.0T 50% #1 $0.5T 0% #6 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 $0.0T -50% 1 2 Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 5
Could Market Turmoil Spoil the Party for Venture? Venture capital by its very nature is a riskier asset. The last two bouts of U.S. market turmoil had a marked effect on investment flows into emerging tech and life sciences companies. Dot-com Era: Q2’98–Q1’02 Financial Crisis: Q4’05–Q3’09 Current Bull Run: Q3’16–Q2’18 S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1 53 105 157 209 1 53 105 157 209 1 53 105 157 209 -10% -10% -10% -20% -20% -20% -30% -30% -30% -40% -40% -40% -50% -50% -50% U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment $35B $14B $35B $30B $12B $30B $25B $10B $25B $20B $8B $20B $15B $6B $15B $10B $4B $10B $5B $2B $5B $0B $0B $0B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: PwC/CB Insights MoneyTree, PitchBook/NVCA, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 6
Coordinated Global Growth Falls Out of Sync The U.S. economy is powering global growth after stumbles in Europe and emerging markets in early 2018. To avoid overheating, the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, and is now out of step with other major economies. Tech companies, at scale, rely on global growth to substantiate lofty valuations. Cumulative Equity Market Returns: Q3’17–Q2’18 Benchmark Rates for Major Economies: 2006–1H’18 25% 7% Performance 2H’17 Q2’18 United States1 +12% U.S. +6% Emerging Markets2 +17% EM -9% 6% Developed Markets3 +9% DM -4% 20% 5% China4 15% 4% 3% 10% U.S.5 2% 5% 1% U.K.6 E.U.7 0% 0% July Jul. 2017 Sept. Oct. 2017 Jan. Jan. 2018 April Apr. 2018 2006 2010 2014 1H’18 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 Notes: 1) OMSCI USA. 2) OMSCI EM. 3) OMSCI EAFE. 4) China 1 Year Benchmark Lending Rates, PBOC. 5) U.S. Fed Funds Rate. 6) UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate. 7) ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate. -5% Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 7
IPOs Look More Attractive in 2018 The backlog of companies looking to access liquidity and capital with an IPO found low valuations to start 2016 and high volatility to start 2018. However, heading into the summer of 2018 both indications appear ripe for public debuts. IPOs are likely to follow. U.S. Equity Volatility Index (^VIX): 2H’15–1H’18 BVP Cloud Index1: Rev. Run Rate Multiple (Median)2 50 10.0x 9.0x 40 8.0x 7.0x 30 6.0x Low Volatility 20 20 5.0x 4.0x 10 3.0x 0 2.0x July Jan. July Jan. July Jan. 7/1/2015 July 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 Jan. 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 July 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 Jan. 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 July 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 Jan. 4/1/2018 Jul. 2015 Oct. 2015 Jan. 2016 Apr. 2016 Jul. 2016 Oct. 2016 Jan. 2017 Apr. 2017 Jul. 2017 Oct. 2017 Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 Notes: 1) More information on BVP Cloud Index at: https://www.bvp.com/strategy/cloud-computing/index. 2) Revenue run rate = Most Recent Quarter’s Revenue x 4. Valuations based on total enterprise value. Source: Bessemmer Venture Partners, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 9
IPOs Provide Price Discovery for Acquisitions Strategics have been willing to pay up in 2018. Acquirers are so hungry for tech assets that several companies in IPO registration have been acquired for healthy premiums before hitting the market. Notable $1B+ Tech Acquisitions: 2017–1H’18 Public In IPO Registration Privately Held Legend $8.0B Valuation at $7.0B Acquisition $6.0B Last Public $5.0B Valuation $4.0B $3.0B IPO Valuation $2.0B Last Private $1.0B Valuation $0.0B MuleSoft AppDynamics iZettle AppNexus Adaptive Insights GitHub Mobike Glassdoor Ring Musical.ly PillPack Target Acquirer Mar. 2018 .Jan. 20171 May 2018 June 2018 June 2018 June 2018 .Apr. 20182 June 2018 Apr. 2018 Dec. 2017 June 2018 Deal Date Notes: 1) AppDynamics was reportedly pricing IPO below last private round. 2) Mobike was acquired at a 10% discount to their last private round. Source: PitchBook, S&P Capital IQ, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 10
Continued M&A for Scaled Mid-Market Companies Beneath the megadeals, financial buyers continue to offer another exit path for companies at
Ample Cash at the Ready for Tech M&A Capital remains plentiful for traditional acquirers: Private equity firms are nearing all-time highs for dry powder, and strategics are cash- and equity-rich. As tech moves to disrupt all industries, note that current S&P 500 constituents have doubled their cash over the last decade. Net Cash: Financial and Strategic Buyers1 S&P 5002: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 2008–1H’18 $145B $140B $2.5T $120B $107B $109B $2.0T $100B $80B $1.5T $60B $51B $1.0T $44B $40B $0.5T $20B $1B $0B $0.0T Private Equity Apple Google Microsoft Facebook Amazon U.S. PE Tech Dry Powder3 2008 12/31/2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Notes: 1) Net cash for strategic acquirers includes cash and ST & LT investments, net ST & LT debt. No consideration was given to domicile of holdings. 2) Based on constituents of the S&P 500 as of June 30, 2018. 3) Based on dry powder for private equity as of September 30, 2017, multiplied by SVB estimate of amount invested in technology deals. Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 12
Emerging Sectors: Tech in the Real World State of the Markets: Q3’18 13
Shifting Retail Trends Attract Capital Consumer expectations are shifting, and retail continues to migrate away from brick and mortar. As e-commerce giants expand their logistics capabilities to cover both domestic and international markets, startup investors are committing capital to the next generation. Logistics: Venture Capital Raised and Deal Count Acquisitions & Investments for E-commerce $800M 120 Dominance in local China-based logistics firm SE Asian e-commerce site Acquired majority stake in Acquired majority stake in and regional markets Projected Full Year1 2017 at $20B valuation 2016 at $2B valuation $600M 90 Middle Eastern Middle Eastern Helping accelerate e-commerce site logistics firm int’l expansion Acq. in July 2017 for $580M Acq. in Sept. 2017 by Souq $400M 60 Invested $550M into Invested $215M into JD.com “The rival of my.. JD.com in June 2018 for 15% stake in March 2014 $200M 30 rival is my friend” Invested in Jet in 2015 Invested in Flipkart in 2017 U.S. e-commerce and logistics Indian e-commerce site $0M 0 Adapting to sales Acquired by Walmart for Acquired by Walmart for moving online $3.3B in Aug. 2016 $20B in April 2018 2012 2014 2016 1H'18 Note: 1) Based on annualized 1H’18 total. Source: PitchBook, TechCrunch, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC, company websites and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 14
Tech Venturing into Healthcare Healthcare is a massive yet inefficient marketplace ripe for innovation and investment. But tackling healthcare challenges is no easy task. Data-rich use cases for AI/ML in diagnostics and genomics are drawing substantial interest. Most Active Generalist Investors1 in U.S. Healthcare: 2H’13–1H’18 Notable Efforts from Tech Giants Total Deals Deal Value 0 25 50 75 100 125 $5.0B NEA Online pharmacy Announced partnership $2.5B Polaris Partners delivery startup acquired in Jan. 2018 to combat for $1.0B in June 2018 rising healthcare costs $3.6BGV $1.8B Canaan Partners $3.2B Venrock Biotech R&D subsidiary Life sciences subsidiary $2.1B Kleiner Perkins in partnership with AbbVie utilizing data to improve focused on longevity patient care and outcomes $1.6B Khosla $1.2B Founders Fund China Invts. U.S. Invts. $0.5B Data Collective $2.0B Sequoia Note: 1) Includes venture firms where less than one-third of deals over the past five years were in healthcare. Source: PitchBook, The Wall Street Journal, company websites and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 15
AI+: Vertical Applications of Artificial Intelligence The future is out of the lab and into our lives, improving everything from portfolio returns to human lifespans. The percentage of startups using AI has climbed in nearly every category. AI + Cybersecurity AI + Digital Health AI + Fintech 100 25% 100 25% 100 25% U.S. Venture Deals U.S. Venture Deals U.S. Venture Deals % of all Cybersecurity Deals % of all Digital Health Deals % of all Fintech Deals 80 20% 80 20% 80 20% 60 15% 60 15% 60 15% 40 10% 40 10% 40 10% 20 5% 20 5% 20 5% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2012 2014 2016 1H'18 2012 2014 2016 1H'18 2012 2014 2016 1H'18 Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018 Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018 Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018 $481M $330M $297M $500M $237M $55M $1,357M $718M $439M Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 16
Venture in China: Investment Playbook State of the Markets: Q3’18 17
A Younger Herd of Unicorns in China China has quickly established itself as a Top Two venture market. In China, the ratio of younger (10 years) is 1-to-1. In the U.S., that ratio is 1-to-4. This speaks to how rapidly companies can reach an astronomical scale in this dynamic emerging market. Distribution of Current Unicorns by Age as of June 2018: China vs. U.S. Age China Total: U.S. Total: 20+ 72 113 18 16 14 12 10 Median: 9 8 6 Median: 6 4 2 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Count Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 18
The Long Reach of China’s BATJ China’s internet giants are a dominant presence in the venture ecosystem. More than two-thirds of China’s current unicorns with $5B+ valuations have received investment from at least one of the BATJ. And now, Alibaba and Tencent may look to invest even earlier in companies’ life cycles. BATJ and $5B+ China Unicorns Valuation Band1 $250B+ . Unaffiliated $50–$250B $20–$50B $10–$20B Pinduoduo Jiedaibao Legend Own/Acquired $5–$10B Invested Note: 1) Valuations based on market cap (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com) or most recent private round as of June 30, 2018. Source: China Money Network, S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, TechCrunch, company websites and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 19
IPOs: How China’s Companies Decide Where to List Scaled companies in China face an international decision when it comes time to list and must consider access to capital, liquidity and regulatory constraints. Six of China’s last eight $1B+ tech IPOs chose exchanges in the U.S. and Hong Kong. Officials would like to see more list domestically. China Tech IPO Gross Proceeds by Exchange: Capital Raised in $100M+ IPOs $22B $6.0B $5.0B Alibaba CRSC $4.0B FII Foxconn ZhongAn Xiaomi $3.0B Guosen Legend iQIYI $2.0B JD.com $1.0B $0.0B U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H'18 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H’18 Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 20
Spotlight on Shenzhen: Entrepreneurial Success State of the Markets: Q3’18 21
Shenzhen: Economic Experiment Yields Results In the span of a generation, Shenzhen has climbed from a fishing village to a global tech powerhouse. Deliberate structural planning and talent acquisition efforts, coupled with world-class hardware manufacturing, have equipped a generation of market-oriented companies to compete globally. City Population, Milestones and Company Formations: 1970–Today Shenzhen’s Tech Giants Shenzhen Telecom equipment developer, manufacturer and distributor 12.0M Market Cap: Privately Held 2017 Total Revenue: $92.5B 10.0M New York City Internet social and gaming platform; e.g. owns WeChat (1B+ MAU) 8.0M Market Cap (6/30/18): $473.5B 2017 Total Revenue: $36.5B 6.0M Shenzhen Stock Launches int’l recruitment Exchange opens. effort, the “Peacock Plan.” Consumer aerial drone and camera developer and manufacturer Designated China’s first Special Economic Zone. Market Cap (6/30/18): $15B1 4.0M 2017 Total Revenue: Unknown Small fishing community with 2000-year history. 2.0M Telecom equipment and other information technology provider Market Cap (6/30/18): $7.9B 0.0M 2017 Total Revenue: $16.7B 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Today Note: 1) Based on current fundraising efforts as of April 2018. Source: South China Morning Post, S&P Capital IQ, China Money Network, company websites and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 22
Market-Oriented Approach Spurs Innovation Shenzhen’s short history means little presence from incumbent state-owned enterprises. Instead, special economic incentives attracted entrepreneurs, and free market forces drove them to be innovators. Shenzhen-based companies now hold the top two spots in global patent applications. China’s Centrally Controlled PCT Applications2 by City: PCT Applications2 by Company: State-Owned Enterprises by City1 Percentage of China Total3 Top 5 & Shenzhen Cos. in Top 1004 75% 75% Rank Company PCT Apps. 1 Huawei 4,204. 60% 60% 2 ZTE 2,965. 3 Intel 2,637. 45% 45% 4 Mitsubishi 2,521. 5 Qualcomm 2,163. 30% 30% 18 Shenzhen CSOT 972. 32 Tencent 560. 15% 15% 34 Yulong 517. 85 DJI Technology 238. 0% 0% Beijing BJ Shanghai SH Shenzhen SZ Other Other Beijing BJ Shanghai SH Shenzhen SZ Other O Notes: 1) Based on list of 96 companies under the supervision of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). 2) PCT Applications are applications filed under the Patent Cooperation Treaty. 3) Data as of 2016. 4) Data as of 2017. Source: State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission website, World Intellectual Property Organization, The Economist analysis of WIPO and SIPO data, company websites and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 23
Southeast Asia: Expanding Influence State of the Markets: Q3’18 24
China Sees Itself in Southeast Asia Today, China is looking to Southeast Asia as their engine of economic growth. With double-digit growth for a user base that’s already larger than the U.S., China’s tech is finding opportunities to go international. Gross Domestic Product: 2000–2017 Internet Users (IU) and YoY Growth Rates: Jan. 2018
Finding Familiar Investments in Southeast Asia The market opportunities in Southeast Asia bear a strong resemblance to those in China a decade ago. This reflects the influence of strategic capital from China’s corporate giants and prominent investors. Often, the focus is expanding services to an upgrading consumer class. Notable SE Asian Companies with Significant Investment from China Companies and Venture Firms Sea Grab GO-Jek Lazada Headquarters: Singapore Headquarters: Singapore Headquarters: Jakarta Headquarters: Singapore Valuation: $5.0B Valuation: $10.0B Valuation: $5.0B Valuation: $2.0B Publicly Traded on NYSE Series H in June 2018 Series E in Feb. 2018 Acquisition in April 2016 China-Based Investors: China-Based Investors: China-Based Investors: China-Based Acquirer: Business Line Expansion: Business Line Expansion: Business Line Expansion: Business Line Expansion1: Ride Motorcycle Gaming E-commerce Payments Payments Grocery Delivery Payments E-commerce Logistics? Payments? Hailing Hailing Traveloka Tokopedia The Redwood Group Bigo China Investors: China Investor: China Investor: China Investor: HQ: Jakarta HQ: Jakarta HQ: Singapore HQ: Singapore Travel Search Engine E-commerce Marketplace Logistics Real Estate Services Online Video Broadcasting Valuation: $1.0B in July 2017 Investment: $1.1B in Aug. 2017 Investment: $306M in May 2018 Investment: $272M in June 2018 Note: 1) Potential expansion efforts for Lazada operations under the control of Alibaba. Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, Reuters, Forbes, TechCrunch and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 26
Developing Pathways to New Market Opportunities To ensure growth beyond opportunities in Southeast Asia, China is laying the groundwork to be a more prominent regional player. The Belt and Road Initiative will establish modern trade routes for goods from China to reach future generations of consumers in Southeast Asia and beyond. Belt and Road Initiative Infrastructure and Construction Investment by Country: Oct. 2013–June 2018 Legend: $10B+ $2B+ $24B Russia $8B Kazakhstan $8B $12B Iraq $13B $40B Israel $6B Iran Pakistan $9B Kuwait Total to Date: S. Korea $17B $420B $18B Egypt Laos $9B $7B Saudi Arabia Vietnam $7B $9B $18B $9B Philippines Ethiopia $21B UAE India Bangladesh $7B $31B $9B Malaysia $7B Cambodia Sri Lanka Thailand $28B $25B Singapore Indonesia Source: China Global Investment Tracker, with data compiled by The American Enterprise Institute and The Heritage Foundation and SVB analysis. State of the Markets: Q3’18 27
Appendix State of the Markets: Q3’18 28
Report Authors Bob Blee Steven Pipp, CFA Head of Corporate Finance VP, Research bblee@svb.com spipp@svb.com Bob Blee heads Silicon Valley Bank’s Corporate Finance Group, Steven Pipp is a Vice President, Research, based in San Francisco, which leads SVB's relationships with public and late stage CA, responsible for capital markets research and data-driven analysis private companies in the Innovation sector throughout North of the innovation economies that SVB serves globally. America, providing a full suite of lending and banking products, as well as guidance as a trusted partner helping our clients Prior to his research role, Steven managed advisory and valuation succeed and quickly scale. engagements for venture-backed technology companies as part of SVB Analytics. Before joining SVB, Steven worked in Minneapolis, Previously, Bob held a variety of roles in SVB’s California and MN, as a consultant and entrepreneur in clean energy technology. Midwest geographies, including heading seed, early and mid- stage Infrastructure, Hardware, Consumer Internet and Fintech Steven earned a Master of Science in Finance from Boston College and banking in the Bay Area and Southern California, as well as a Bachelor of Science Business from the University of Minnesota. In responsibility for SVB’s Mezzanine Lending and Loan addition, he holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Syndications practices. Bob sits on the nonprofit board of the Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship (NFTE) and the Silicon Valley Advisory Council of the Commonwealth Club. He is also active with his alma mater, the University of Illinois. State of the Markets: Q3’18 29
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