Right-to-Work Legislation and the Manufacturing Sector
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CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH M I L L E R C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S • B A L L S TAT E U N I V E R S I T Y Right-to-Work Legislation and the Manufacturing Sector Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D. Director and Associate Professor This study extends the analysis of the impact of right-to-work legislation in very narrow areas—industrial composition, manufacturing income, employment and wages in the United States. INTRODUCTION There are a great many additional issues, RIGHT-TO-WORK LEGISLATION Researchers have been long interested some purely economic, others beyond the The National Labor Relations Act of in evaluating the role right-to-work traditional scope of economic analysis. This 1935 (the Wagner Act) permitted unions (RTW) laws play in wages, employment, study will not address issues beyond the to enforce membership by all employees firm location, industrial structure and empirical matters mentioned. All research represented by that union. Certain types of other economic outcomes in states that is limited in scope, and while the issues workers—management, railroad, domestic have implemented these policies. These we examine are important, their relative services and government employees—were remain timely questions, because several importance cannot be determined without exempt from the law.[2] In 1947, the state legislatures are currently considering more comparative research. So, we cannot Taft-Hartley Act eased this restriction, RTW legislation. This study extends the conclude from this work alone, the efficacy permitting some employees to avoid union analysis of the impact of RTW legisla- of the legislation, or even whether or not membership and avoid paying union dues. tion in very narrow areas—industrial these issues are of primary importance to However, the full implementation of the composition, manufacturing income, the evaluation of this issue.[1] law required individual states to implement employment and wage rate in the United We begin by briefly reviewing RTW legislation to this effect. This has become States. Examining more than a half cen- legislation, highlighting some regions of known as right-to-work legislation. tury of changes, we seek to incorporate particular interest. This is followed by an The original states who adopted RTW significantly more available information explanation of the ambiguity present in policies were heavily concentrated in the regarding a number of unsettled questions economic theory regarding the effects of southern and southwestern United States. surrounding RTW laws. RTW legislation. This is then placed in the At the time, these were places that were The questions we ask are not new, but context of the existing body of research on not heavily industrialized. Further, there we focus on quantifying the changes to the subject. We follow this with explicit appeared some cultural antipathy towards manufacturing associated with RTW laws economic modeling of the influence of the labor movement in the South (Black in each of the 48 conterminous United RTW laws in the United States on the 1989). In the Midwest, the state of Indi- States and the District of Columbia. These manufacturing share of income in each ana passed RTW legislation in 1957 but are among the questions facing citizens state’s economy, manufacturing incomes. rescinded private sector RTW in 1965. and public policy makers when consid- We end with conclusions, recommen- Since the Taft-Hartley Act, there has been ering their stance on changes to RTW dations for further analysis and policy slow adoption with 22 states currently legislation. However, they are not the only considerations. having passed RTW legislation. questions involving changes to RTW laws. 1. The political economy literature has also shown some interest in more fundamental issues regarding limits to the freedom of association and the specter of free riders enjoying the putative gains of union membership without suffering the costs (of dues). 2. Some states passed RTW laws prior to the Taft-Hartley Act. CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
SIDEBAR A: Geographic Distribution of States with Established or WHAT IS RIGHT TO WORK POLICY? Right to work policy is essentially the right Potential Right-to-Work Laws of an employee to work for a business without being obligated to join a labor union. Arkan- sas’s state constitution offers a more technical definition: 1935 No person shall be denied employment because of membership in or affiliation with 1985 1946 or resignation from a labor union, or because 1963 of refusal to join or affiliate with a labor 1974 union; nor shall any corporation or individual 1946 1911 or association of any kind enter into any 1955 contract, written or oral, to exclude from 1947 1958 employment members of a labor union or 1947 persons who refuse to join a labor union, or 1947 because of resignation from a labor union; nor 2001 1954 1946 1944 shall any person against his will be compelled 1947 to pay dues to any labor organization as a 1943 1954 prerequisite to or condition of employment. 1993 (Arkansas Constitution, Amendment 34 § 1) 1976 As of January 2012, 22 states have right- 1943 to-work policies in place and several states are considering the introduction of RTW policies. Most right-to-work states introduced a RTW Has established right-to-work law policy through state legislation, but five states (Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi and Source: National Right to Work Legal Defense and Considering right-to-work law Oklahoma) have RTW statutes amended to Education Foundation, Inc.; and CBER research. Has no right-to-work law their state constitutions. ECONOMIC THEORY AND RIGHT-TO- in firm location decisions. For example, Conversely, the convergence of state WORK LEGISLATION negotiating with unions is costly, and much level industrial structure in the past half Right-to-work legislation has been of the cost increasing effects of unions are century would tend to push increased lev- hypothesized to influences firm and worker embedded in work rules, and decreased els of more unionized industries (primarily behavior in ways that render aggregate the- flexibility in hiring and discharge, not pay. manufacturing and transportation since oretical predictions murky. As an example, This is especially true in those industries mining, a heavily unionized industry is not Reed (2003) provides an excellent review with higher levels of human capital, such particularly footloose) in states that had of the complexity of economic theory. He as government and the service sector. In historically low levels of manufacturing. presents differing theoretical arguments these sectors, unions do not appear to have This well could have occurred without any regarding the wage effects of RTW laws. generated a large wage differential, so the consideration of RTW legislation. First, the free riding by non-union work- concerns of business are more frequently The benefit of theoretical results regard- ers may erode the strength of unions to expressed as a concern over flexibility in ing RTW legislation and industrial compo- bargain, reducing the wage premium for work rules and hiring. sition is fleeting. The only sure conclusion workers. Second, the increased require- For the size and composition of is that whatever preconceived notion an ment for effective unions under the RTW industry, the theoretical explanations individual or group brings to the policy environment may motivate unions to for RTW are only modestly less murky. discussion is likely to find supportive demonstrate their effectiveness by securing RTW legislation may well have been theory. For our purposes, it is the empirics higher wage and benefit gains. influenced by initial union conditions (or of the matter that are necessary to evaluate Obviously, these two plausible explana- local preferences). Thus, strong unions in the role of the legislation. tions offer different predictions regarding industrialized states may have blocked the the effect of RTW laws on wages. A full legislation, while less industrialized states EMPIRICAL FINDINGS RELEVANT TO review of the existing theory is only of would be more likely to endorse RTW THIS DISCUSSION tangential interest to this primarily empiri- legislation. These heavily industrialized A large body of analysis has been per- cal work. We note however, that wages and states may enjoy manufacturing clusters formed regarding the effects and efficacy benefits are not the primary cost differential that continued to attract new firms seek- of right-to-work legislation. The bulk of between union and non-unionized firms. ing the benefits of the cluster, and are the analysis, especially in recent years, has So other matters may play a bigger role therefore less sensitive to unionization. been supplied by advocacy groups. The CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 2 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
quality of these analyses range from very Louisiana-Mississippi border shows stark the most heavily unionized private sector fine scholarly analysis to astonishingly differences in manufacturing location; industry, manufacturing. We exclude biased creeds. I leave these un-reviewed, both are RTW states, but Louisiana mining, as it is not typically viewed as and instead focus on studies from within has suffered a long history of antipathy sufficiently footloose to be influenced by the peer-reviewed literature. Here, I focus towards business. RTW laws, and we also exclude service and on findings from a few recent studies. Stevans (2009) examined another public sector employees who are also not a Any analysis of the effects of RTW important question surrounding RTW footloose sector. We examine the contermi- legislation faces considerable analytical legislation at the state level. This study nous 48 states and the District of Colum- challenge. The first is the difficulty in dis- introduced a method for correcting for bia from 1929 through 2005. entangling RTW effects from other factors. a problem known as endogeneity, which We are attempting to estimate the A study that examines the role of RTW is the possibility of reverse causation in incremental contribution of RTW laws on that is absent of such issues as tax policy, the adoption of a RTW law. Because it is different measures of manufacturing. To weather and the like will be unable to tease possible that local factors (such as strong do this, we construct a very basic treatment out the influence of legislative change from unions) prevent the passage of RTW laws, model from which to estimate impacts of these factors. any test of RTW versus non-RTW states RTW legislation: Yi,t = α + αi + β (RTWi,t) + δWYj,t A study that examines the role of right to work that is absent of such + θγi,t-1 + εi,t issues as tax policy, weather and the like will be unable to tease out the influence of legislative change from these factors. ...where the dependent variable Y is the manu- facturing share of income in state i, in year t or income in the manufacturing sector. These are While it is fairly straightforward to is not a natural experiment, but is biased estimated as a function of a common and fixed account for overall economic trends, tax (statistically) either for or against finding effects intercept (α + αi), a presence variable policy and weather in a statistical model, it effects. This problem has plagued RTW for right-to-work legislation (RTW), a first order is far more difficult to measure the various studies. Stevans found that there were no spatial contiguity element to correct for spatial and disparate elements of public policy wage or employment effects of RTW legis- autocorrelation (δWYj,t), a first order temporal that contribute to firm location decisions. lation when correcting for the endogeneity autoregressive element (θγi,t-1), and a white noise One important attempt at this was pro- problem. A concern with the Stevans study error term, εi,t.[3] vided by Holmes (1998), who measured is the absence of strong analysis over time firm location decision using RTW as a tool in the effects he measures. The choice of the fixed-effects model to measure other business friendly policies There are many other studies, but the is motivated by a fundamental critique on firm location decision at the county Holmes (1998) and Stevans (2009) studies of earlier studies of RTW legislation that level. This study was especially important provide some of the most careful treatment are the absence of controls for underlying in that it included other business-friendly of the empirical problems, while framing conditions both to economic structure and policies (such as tax rates) in a carefully the debate sufficiently for our purposes cultural acceptance of unionization (see executed study of counties in different here. I now measure RTW and report the Reed 2003). The fixed-effects intercept states, but with contiguous borders. This results using lessons from both authors. then captures time invariant characteristics study used RTW legislation as a proxy for of each state, and permitting parsimony business-friendly legislation, and reports MODELING INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION in the actual estimation (for which theory a very large increase in manufacturing AND RIGHT-TO-WORK LAWS is again too ambiguous to provide reli- employment in places with a RTW law, if One purpose of this paper is to estimate able guidance on specification). Thus, the accompanied by business-friendly policies how the share of heavily unionized indus- fixed-effects offer significant benefits over and no unusual geographic complica- tries may be influenced by right-to-work common or random effects as it controls tions. For example, Holmes notes the legislation within a state. We focus on the time invariant characteristics of the 3. There are some considerations in the estimation process to be considered. The dependent variables in one estimation is industry share. This is problematic, as is the potential for non-spherical errors generated by the spatial interaction and autoregressive element of the modeling. To correct for these problems, we employ a panel cor- rected standard error (PCSE) estimate. This provides the efficiency enhancements not available through FGLS, while preserving consistency and unbiasedness in the esti- mates (see Park and Katz, 1995). Finally, the PCSE estimates are estimated with White’s (1980) heteroskedasticity invariate, variance-covariance matrix. All dependent variables are estimated in first-differenced logarithmic form to ensure stationarity. CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 3 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
TA B L E 1 : Summary Statistics, 1929–2006 ($ Millions, Nominal) Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Manufacturing Share 0.17 0.16 0.52 0.02 0.09 0.50 2.80 Manufacturing Income 5,997,473 1,268,621 144,000,000 1,236 11,883,691 4 27 Right-to-Work States 0.27 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.44 1.05 2.10 Old South States 0.24 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.43 1.19 2.41 Manufacturing Income, 3,865,163 2,347,648 24,052,176 262,002 4,700,227 2 9 1947 conterminous states and the District of TA B L E 2 : Right-to-Work Effect on Manufacturing Columbia. The data appear in Table 1. Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing One further problem is the concern that Share of Income Aggregate Level of Employment Wage Rate RTW legislation is not spontaneously vary- (t-Value) Income (t-Value) (t-Value) (t-Value) ing across states. If RTW legislation in a 0.002018*** -0.038467*** 0.99*** 0.03 C (3.25) (-9.8) (8.18) (0.73) particular state is caused by some other fac- 0.000880 0.007671 0.015 0.0078 tor, such as existing low rates of unioniza- Right to Work (1.13) (1.54) (1.27) (0.66) tion or historical antipathy towards unions, Spatial Correction 0.018874 -0.003496*** -0.077*** 2,571.6 (1.13) (-3.86) (-7.76) (0.49) the model will be biased (in a statistical -6.76E-05*** 0.000723*** -0.0007*** -0.0003 sense) and not provide useful results. Trend (-4.25) (14.1) (-4.97) (-0.057) To correct for this problem, we use 0.057998 -0.000675 0.27*** 0.35* Autocorrelations a method designed to account for the (0.96) (-0.01) (8.52) (1.69) predisposition of a state to adopt a RTW Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes law. This is known as a correction for Adjusted R 2 0.04 0.23 0.24 0.00 endogeneity, which in non-technical terms Note: *** denotes statistical significance to the 0.01 level. * denotes statistical signifacance to the 0.10 level. is a correction for the ‘reverse causation’ Both models were statistically significant to the 0.01 level on the standard F-test. that might bias the model. This correc- tion takes the form of modifying the years (1947). In other words, not making meaningful, so RTW legislation does not dependent variables of industry income this correction would bias the study.[4] affect the size of the manufacturing share, shares and the level of income, accounting inflation-adjusted wages for manufacturing for the level of manufacturing in a state ESTIMATION RESULTS workers, employment in manufacturing nor immediately following the Second World Our estimates of the right-to-work leg- worker wage rates. War and whether or not the state was part islation on manufacturing share of income This analysis suggests RTW laws do not of the Old South. To the layperson, these and aggregate manufacturing income are matter in explaining industrial structure might seem fanciful elements to include displayed in Table 2. across the United States. However, this in this type of study, but in truth, it is the These provide empirical estimates of is not a resolved issue because there is not presence of factors such as anti-union feel- changes to industrial composition and purely empirical method of evaluating the ing in the Old South, and the strength of manufacturing wages caused by of RTW endogeneity correction. Though these find- unions in the industrial states prior to the legislation from 1929 through 2005. Over- ings corroborate the most recent studies in 1950s that require this sort of analysis. So all, the industrial composition estimates this area (Stevans 2009), the outcomes here any study that attempts to draw conclu- offers a weak explanation for overall changes call for a more specific analysis of the legis- sions regarding the effect of RTW without to the economy (manufacturing share). lation. In other words, I might be wrong. addressing this problem should be viewed The income model performs fairly well in A series of models that captures the with some skepticism. capturing changes to inflation-adjusted total relationship between two variables in A key test of the value of these two met- manufacturing income when accounting which causation can run in either direction rics in accounting for such bias is that wages for these state-specific conditions, surround- have seen widespread application. These and manufacturing share were both strongly ing state wages, trends, persistence and the models—developed by 2011 Nobel Laure- correlated with variables that accounted endogeneity of RTW laws. Of primarily ate Christopher Sims—allow two variables for states in the Old South and the level of interest in this research is the role RTW laws to interact upon each other, permitting the manufacturing in the immediate post war play. In no model were estimates statistically analyst to decompose the relative effects on 4. This ‘weak instrument test’ passed for this model. CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 4 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
each other. To better understand the effect FIGURE 1: First Ten Years of Accumulated Growth of Manufacturing of this legislation on a particular state, we Incomes and Annual Changes in Share Since the Introduction of Right-to- isolate our analysis to those states that have Work Law by State changed their RTW laws over the past half A: Florida B: Idaho century. We can then confine our analysis A C C U M U L AT E D 40% 40% to the ten states that have changed their 30% 30% legislation since our data began.[5] 20% 20% To do so, we construct a model in which A C C U M U L AT E D 10% 10% total manufacturing income (adjusted for ANNUAL 0% 0% inflation) is affected by the passage of a ANNUAL -10% -10% RTW law. To accomplish this we must -20% -20% translate the zero-or-one nature of the Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 4 3 ) Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 8 5 ) RTW law into a variable that can take any value between 0.0 and 1.0. To do this, we C: Iowa D: Kansas adapt a technique described by Duecker 40% 40% (2001) that replaces a qualitative variable 30% 30% A C C U M U L AT E D (e.g. the yes/no conditions of RTW laws 20% 20% in a state) with a forecast. This adjustment 10% 10% ANNUAL unfortunately precludes using Indiana for 0% 0% ANNUAL A C C U M U L AT E D the set of evaluated states because its fore- -10% -10% cast remained constant, despite a change -20% Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 -20% Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 in 1957 through 1965. Also, we have to Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 7 4 ) Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 8 ) isolate a second relationship between these E: Louisiana F: Mississippi variables that does not change through 40% 40% time and choose how long the effect of the A C C U M U L AT E D 30% 30% change in a law should be modeled.[6] As A C C U M U L AT E D 20% 20% with the earlier model, here we estimate 10% 10% the change to wages, not simply the level. 0% 0% For each of the ten selected states, we can ANNUAL ANNUAL -10% -10% measure two factors. The first is the size -20% -20% of the change to manufacturing incomes Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 7 6 ) Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 4 ) (total, not per capita) of the introduction of a RTW law within a state. Second, we G: South Carolina H: Texas can estimate the share of the year-to-year 40% 40% change in these wages attributable to the 30% 30% A C C U M U L AT E D passage of a RTW law. The share of year- 20% 20% to-year changes (variance) ranged from 14 10% 10% ANNUAL percent to 46 percent in this sample of ten 0% 0% ANNUAL states. The impacts, both year-to-year and -10% -10% A C C U M U L AT E D cumulative, appear in Figure 1. -20% -20% Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 These results paint an interesting story Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 4 ) Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 9 3 ) about the effect of RTW legislation within individual states. In seven of the ten states, I: Utah J: Wyoming the cumulative 10-year impact of RTW 40% 40% A C C U M U L AT E D A C C U M U L AT E D 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 5. We exclude Oklahoma due to its recent change in 2001. 0% 0% ANNUAL ANNUAL 6. This is known respectively as estimating a -10% -10% cointegrating equation and determining optimal -20% -20% lag lengths (for which we minimized the Akaike Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Information Criterion). Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 5 ) Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 6 3 ) CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 5 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
legislation was an increase in inflation- economists are particularly suited to address. sectors, ranging from significant adjusted manufacturing incomes of This study has attempted to evalu- declines (greater than 10 percent between 15 percent and 40 percent. This ate some of these factors. This study is over a decade) to very large gains suggests either a growth in the number of incomplete and does not fully evaluate all (almost a doubling of manufactur- manufacturing jobs in these states, higher industries or all aspects of the workplace. ing). These responses to the shock of wages for existing manufacturing jobs As such, this study cannot be interpreted a RTW law point to highly variable or both. This results from an increase in alone as a call for or against passage of a impacts of a change in legislation. manufacturing jobs, or wages, or poten- RTW law in Indiana. However, we can One reasonable interpretation is tially both. Interestingly, in all but one draw some conclusions from our reading that other factors matter more than state, Wyoming, the impact in the first year of existing studies and the new analysis RTW in determining the size of the was slightly negative, perhaps as evidence presented here. manufacturing industry in a state. that poor economic times precipitated the Among these findings are: • Overall, based on the experience in legislative change. In Idaho, the cumulative • The impact of right-to-work legisla- other states, right-to-work legisla- effect over 10 years was an almost 8 per- tion is difficult to disentangle from tion is not likely to have an effect cent increase in manufacturing incomes. other business friendly policies. on the manufacturing industry in However, in Iowa and South Carolina we However, the more business- Indiana. find that manufacturing income declined friendly a state is at any given time, over the 10-year period following intro- the more muted the enactment of a REFERENCES duction of the RTW legislation. These RTW law is likely to be. Black, Earl and Merle Black (1989). Politics findings mimic those of Holmes (1998), and Society in the South. Boston: Harvard who finds that while RTW as a proxy for • The presence or absence of right-to- University Press. business friendly policies boosts manu- work legislation in a state is not a natural experiment, so any analysis Reed, W. Robert (2003). How Right to Work facturing share of an economy, but that Laws Affect Wages. Journal of Labor Research, important geographic idiosyncrasies exist. that fails to attempt to control 24(4): 1-18. for this is inherently flawed. This includes simple comparisons of Holmes, Thomas J. (1996). The Effect of State SUMMARY RTW states with non-RTW states Policies on the Location of Industry: Evi- Right-to-work legislation is a politically dence from State Borders. Journal of Political tactile subject that has far reaching consid- on any issue. Economy, 106(4): 667-704. erations and motivations. We acknowledge • Our estimates of the impact of National Right to Work Legal Defense and this and admit the facility of economic right-to-work laws on manufactur- Education Foundation, Inc. (2010). Right to analysis to speak to these matters is limited. ing, which accounted for factors Work States. Online: http://www.nrtw.org. However, economic considerations in terms that would lead to changes in leg- Stevans, Lonnie K. (2009). The Effect of of the manufacturing share of the economy islation isolated no effect of RTW Endogenous Right-to-Work Laws on (a proxy for more manufacturing rather legislation. Business and Economic Conditions in the than less) and the growth of the industry • States that changed their right-to- United States: A Multivariate Approach. The in an absolute manner (total manufactur- work laws experienced significant Review of Law and Economics, 5(1): 595-614. ing incomes), manufacturing employment variation in their manufacturing and manufacturing wages are matters that BALL STATE CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Center for Business and Economic Research Miller College of Business, Ball State University Whitinger Business Building, room 149 2000 W. University Ave. • Muncie, IN 47306 Phone: 765-285-5926 • Email: cber@bsu.edu www.bsu.edu/cber CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 6 BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
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