Standish Predictions for 2021 - The Standish Group
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Standish Predictions for 2021
Jim Johnson
Chairman and Founder
The Standish Group International Inc.
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Abstract
In this paper we present our annual predictions. The first three predictions
in this report were created by Jim Johnson and The Standish Group but
were influenced by surveys and interviews of leading technology
executives, including a few from the Boston CTO Club, that sought their
views on what is on the horizon for 2021. The rest of the predictions are
direct from more than 50 executives responded, and below are some of
their thoughts. (Because the surveys were returned prior to the recent
announcements of vaccines for Covid-19, many of the replies focus
around a future vaccine, and this was taken into consideration.
Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Prediction #1: Infinite Flow The Standish Group predicts Infinite stakeholders, and the users. Infinite Flow will take hold in replacing Flow has a very low management “projects” as a method of software and governance overhead of 15%- development. This will happen 20%, compared to the 80% slowly—but it will happen, as more overhead commonly experienced organizations see the cultural and with the standard “project economic advantages of the Flow management. With such a method. Infinite Flow is a continuous substantial economic advantage process based around a small team expected, The Standish Group is that produces a daily delivery of predicting that eventually, 80%-85% progressive improvements informed of software will be developed in a by four different levels of feedback Flow-like environment. Flow is the and collaboration. These four levels future. For more information on create a cultural advantage that we Infinite Flow go to describe as a “happiness circle” www.standishgroup.com/infiniteflow. involving the sponsor, the team, the Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Prediction #2: Healthcare Research Convergence The Standish Group also predicts that microbiology, data science, artificial the major employment and intelligence, and other related investment opportunities for 2021 disciplines. Teammates familiar with reside in the convergence between the Crispr/Cas9 gene engineering three distinct areas: healthcare tool will be in demand and will research, data science, and artificial command higher compensation. intelligence. This convergence will Let’s call these companies “HIROs” eventually produce life-saving (Health Intelligent Research products and behavioral changes, Organizations). HIROs will partner as well as a whole host of new with, and later merge with, large companies that will spring up to pharmaceutical and biotechnology service this burgeoning commercial companies. The breakthroughs from area. It will also require a whole new HIROs might include discoveries in set of skills—skills that will benefit from the fields of research and treatments teams that can work in a highly for cancer as well as heart and brain collaborative way. These teams will diseases. They will also be at the require people with advanced forefront of discovery and research degrees in cellular or molecular into potential pandemics. biology, chemistry, biochemistry, Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Prediction #3: iBike
The Standish Group predicts the buy Trek for their expertise and
breakthrough consumer products for capability in manufacturing high-
2021 will feature the development of quality bicycles. The iBike will be a
Personal Transportation Devices standard pedal bike—not a
(PTDs). The star of 2021’s PTDs will be downgraded moped—that will be
a self-driving bicycle, which will be able to operate in electric power
similar to the mock-up depicted in assist mode for uphill travel or when
this funny video: the rider gets tired. Its battery will last
https://youtu.be/LSZPNwZex9s. 40 to 50 miles in autopilot or rider
assist mode, and it will recharge
We believe it will be developed and while the bike is in standard pedal
offered by Apple and, of course, will mode. And, of course, the bike’s self-
be called the “iBike.” To accomplish driving capability will come via an
this, Apple will buy Segway for their app on the iPhone. Other PTD
gyro technology, which will improve breakthroughs will include single-
the iBike’s stability. Apple will also person drones and jetpacks.
Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Question 1: What will be the breakthrough technology for 2021? While Covid-19 vaccines and advancements. (In fact, IoT patches biometrics won the day, it is clear were mentioned as a way to track from the replies that drones, and and trace COVID vaccinated and their uses, were not far behind. Many non-vaccinated patients.) Health of our respondents imagined drones tech, in general, is ripe for many for delivering packages, for breakthroughs. There also was a high discoveries, for security, for law concentration of both security and enforcement, and even for personal privacy products and services. In transportation. Another foreseen set fact, one respondent suggested that of innovations involved automation In 2021 pressure from government of cars and motorcycles—as well as regulators and consumers will build drones. Robotics, 5G, AI, and to replace passwords with more advancements in data science secure and private methods of rounded out the breakthrough identification and technologies. Digital twin, authentication. Another respondent blockchain as a service, and IoT are speculated that 2021 will be a year also likely to see significant of widespread DDoS attacks. Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Question 2: What will be the hottest—and coldest—jobs in 2021? Biotech jobs in general top the list. but would then turn cold as the “Data scientist” was the single most vaccine is rolled out (pun intended). mentioned individual non-biotech hot job—by a landslide. Other hot One area of debate over hot and jobs involved AI, machine learning, cold jobs involved knowledge of and virtual event planning for intra- historical computer languages that company events. There will also be support legacy applications. The list high demand for cybersecurity of “cold jobs” included people in the analysts and engineers. Learning travel/entertainment industry, as well Python could enhance your career, as technical writers, workers in and blockchain experts and enterprise desktop support and engineers were also mentioned. general administration and Digital transformation specialists employees in on-premises retail as were in the running, as well as other well as financial customer services. types of business and process “Project managers” had a few architects. A couple of people respondents thinking on the “cold” mentioned UX designers. One of the side—and our prophets also think most interesting submissions was that political consultants and “vaccine freezer-truck drivers”— pollsters should start thinking about a which would be a near-term hot job, new career. Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Question 3: What will be the fastest and slowest growth markets in 2021? Products in health tech—both intelligence, digital-twin services, individual and institutional—should and dry ice all look like they will have have a banner year, say our futurists. a good year. Fintech was This includes digital health (precision highlighted as a growth area by a medicine, genomics, medical few of the respondents. The future devices, and general life-science of travel is ambiguous: once the products). Delivery services will pandemic is over, will people flock continue to be strong, given the to airports and cruise ships? arrival of the Covid vaccine, but Certainly, work has changed online buying will continue at a great forever—job seekers may have pace given the past year as well as come to prefer work-from-home the fact that people are getting employment. Meanwhile, people used to online purchases of grocery looking for retail and office space and other products that they might will find huge pickings as well as have gone out for in the past. bargains. (This was already a trend, Telemedicine is here to stay, and it as many malls have turned into will provide revenue to health warehouse space.) One respondent workers who had planned to retire. suggested that smaller IT budgets will AI, blockchain, data sciences, depress the market as a whole. cybersecurity, data privacy, process Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Question 4: What are your comments on acquisitions, mergers, and divestures? Amazon was on the minds of many and The New York Times. A few of the respondents. They gave me commenters suggested that Google the impression that Amazon is the might buy Zoom and sell YouTube Godzilla that swallowed the world, (maybe to Amazon). The idea that including Wall Street real estate. Their Oracle and SAP might join forces targets may include (again, pun was another honorable mention; intended) Target, CVS, and maybe we should throw HPE into the Walgreens, to name a few. Some same mix. However, combining more-novel possible acquisitions these three should remind you of the included CNN and the US Postal old joke about hooking three dead Service. Newspapers up for grabs horses together to increase speed. could include The Wall Street Journal Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
Question 5: What will be the most overused term or acronym for 2021?
The winner here is “TEAM”—whether mainframes and legacy
it’s used as an acronym (“Together applications. Other honorable
Everyone Achieves More”), a saying mentions included “quantum
(“There is no ‘I’ in ‘team’”), or a mere computing, “as a service (aaS),”
word. “Let’s have a team meeting and “edge cloud.”
over Zoom” is right up there; in fact
“Zoom” is the runner-up to “team,” I have come up with a new
coupled with “fatigue” or “burnout.” acronym: AUM. It stands for Artificial
Coming in third—and last year’s Useless Measurement. Where
number one—is AIML (Artificial software “projects” are concerned,
Intelligence Machine Learning). here are some AUMs you might be
familiar with: cost, time, target, lines
Other overused words and phrases of code, and function points. Where
included “blockchain,” “disruption,” Scrum is concerned, you might
“sanitizing,” “low code,” and “5G.” consider “velocity” as an AUM. Why?
(We’ll admit that “Flow” achieved None of these measurements involve
honorable-mention status.) Another value or customer satisfaction. So
interesting one was “Just Do it.” (I from now on, when you see an AUM,
had been saying this for years before just call it out. You can pronounce it
Nike took it up as their marketing “um.” Say it out loud so everyone
slogan. Maybe it’s catching on.) The can hear you. Let’s make AUM the
word “cure” could be in the running, most overused acronym for 2021.
given the pandemic. “Brain drain” Let’s start counting the things that
may apply to organizations with really count.
Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.Summary A few days ago, after a team made a process change to improve efficiency, a client wrote to ask, ”But why the change? We have always done it the old way.” To a futurist like me, that’s the sound of fingernails on a chalkboard, and it drives me right up the wall. Our industry is all about the future; we create change and do not accept what’s been done in the past as “good enough.” These predictions are things that might happen, but our work is meant to make life better through advancements and improvements. We never stop changing. We never stop looking to the future. We are agents and champions of change! Jim Johnson Jim Johnson is the founder and chairman of The Standish Group. He has a combination of technical, marketing, and research achievements focused on mission- critical applications and technology. He is best known for his research on project performance and early recognizing technology trends. Jim is a pioneer of modern research techniques and continues to advance in the research industry through case- based analytical technology. Copyright Ó 2020 The Standish Group International, Inc.
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