SPECIAL - Happy to be Arrested with Major Milestone - Vol 3, Issue 12, Jan-Mar 2021 - Raksha-Anirveda
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PBG Media Ventures Editorial INDIA WILL HAVE TO GO FULL Contents RAKSHA ANIRVEDA VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 12 | JANUARY - MARCH 2021 THROTTLE IN THIS NEW DECADE RNI NO. DELENG/2018/76856 p14 Deepening Defence Ties in a Changing DRONE SWARMS: THE NEXT Global Order Editor & Business Director p18 Air-To-Air Missiles: India’s Window of Ajit Kumar Thakur Vulnerability EVOLUTION IN WARFARE Editorial Director p24 Battlefield Energy, ‘Oil of Space’ and PK Ghosh Rebalancing Consulting Editor The Raksha Anirveda have always been safety and survival while p28 Indo-French Strategic Cooperation Vinay Shukla team wishes all its being in a comfort zone. Moreover, the Need of the Hour for Regional Stability Sri Krishna Ramesh S readers a vibrant new inability of the current Indian leadership to Advances in drone swarming, the next evolution of robotic p32 IAF’s C-295 Transport Aircraft Project Advisory Board year 2021 – one that listen to other viewpoints and surrounding warfare, are mostly classified, though governments have given Has Many Long Range Goals p36 Fund Shortage: Indian Navy Faces Amb Smita Purushottam, IFS (Retd) brings robust growth itself with people who eventually don’t glimpses of their progress over the years. The question is not Hobson’s choice between Third Amb Vishnu Prakash, IFS (Retd) Air Marshal M Matheswaran (Retd) through innovative speak out has resulted in a blurred if, but when and where drone swarms will be utilised as part of Aircraft Carrier and SSNs p44 At 20 Indo-Russian Strategic Partnership Lt Gen PC Katoch (Retd) ideas and successful understanding of the real challenges. This a mature concept of operations (ConOps) Falls Victim to Hostile Narratives Lt Gen PR Shankar (Retd) Lt Gen AB Shivane (Retd) endeavours. has to change now considering the multiple p54 Re-evolving SAARC with a Strategic Maj Gen JS Kataria (Retd) Vision Cmde Ranjit B Rai (Retd) The terrible and mind-boggling threats to its sovereignty. India has to p58 Halting The Dragon’s March Through Cmde Anil Jai Singh (Retd) experience of the past year is behind us shed its cocoon and rise to the occasion Unconventional Means Cdr KP Sanjeev Kumar (Retd) p62 Securing India through Futuristic and Dr Mathew Simon now. It brought an end to many things through good governance and economic Disruptive Technologies Amit Cowshish and gave rise to some unimaginable development. p70 A Paradigm Shift in Nature And Sameer Joshi Dr Punit Saurabh innovations. The year 2021 is special for One hopes the country will make Spectrum of Future Wars us as it marks the third anniversary of our practical and realistic efforts to ensure p80 IAF Needs At Least a Dozen More International Roving Correspondent Powerful AWACS Arie Egozi magazine at the start of the third decade of steady economic progress that empowers Legal Advisor the 21st century. And for India, it’s another it to face the ever-growing challenges P86 AERO INDIA 2021 Ramesh Sharma opportunity to let go off its balancing act from the Sino-Pak nexus. Similarly, a p108 Boeing Makes Strong Pitch for F/A -18 48 Creative Director Block III Super Hornet for Indian Navy Md Moeen Aijaz for now and change its track, be attentive recalibrated and innovative approach p110 Look to Increase India Defense Design & Layout and alert, initiate permanent corrective in foreign policy is required to counter Cooperation and in Talks with Potential Design Cubicle measures taking note of the imbalances China’s sinister manoeuvring in the sub Partners For Advertisement contact us: p112 Indian Army to Play a Decisive Role in ajitk.thakur@gmail.com and myriad challenges, and reverse the continental neighbourhood. India has to the New Decade ajit@raksha-anirveda.com course of its perilous economic downslide. refocus and think long term to overcome p114 Appointments LEAD rakshaanirveda@gmail.com For any complaint and query The geopolitical world has witnessed the biggest fallacy of its planning – the P117 CIVIL AVIATION SECTION contact us: info@raksha-anirveda.com ajitk.thakur@gmail.com tectonic shifts. The intensified power tussle between the US and China has proven that belief and assumption of its planners that the outcome will follow their plan. In STORY p126 News Round Up p130 In News Raksha Anirveda is printed and the current world order is still a bipolar reality, a plan is just a best-case scenario. published by PBG Media Ventures Published, Edited & Printed by one. For India to emerge as a real global The real game-changer will be an economic Ajit Kumar Thakur on behalf of power in the ever-changing, complex policy that embeds defence as a key growth ‘PBG Media Ventures’ 649/4, Konark Residency, Nambardar world order, the path ahead will be a driver; a financial planning where the Colony, Burari, Delhi -110084 tightrope walk. It will have to overcome allocations are realistic for a cohesive, well- Printed at: Star Print-O-Bind, the multifaceted challenges it faces now. integrated national security requirement. Star House, F-31, Okhla Industrial Area Phase-I, New Delhi-110020 Moreover, how India counters its security Also, it goes without saying that a well- Editor: Ajit Kumar Thakur All disputes are subjected to the and non-security threats this decade, including a looming two-front war with defined national security policy will be a force-multiplier for India’s power 40 66 76 82 98 Institutional Reforms Rafael’s Approach to EMALS, AAG Power to Startups, MSMEs to Play Airbus’ Support to jurisdiction of Delhi Mobile: +91-9910252485 China and Pakistan, will decide its fate as projection globally. Disclaimer: Views expressed are those of a real global power. With changing times, democracies We have put in sincere efforts to make the Aero India 2021 edition a special Must for ‘Big Leap’ in India Production & Support India’s Nex-Gen Pivotal Role in Building Indian Armed Forces individual authors and do not represent any policy of this publication. around the world are experiencing multiple one for our readers. Hope you will find it Defence Self-Reliance Technology Transfer Aircraft Carrier Indian Defence Ecosystem Modernisation -Editor fissures. The absence of consensual interesting, insightful and worthwhile. Just If we want private players The company’s“Value Dr Vivek Lall, Chief Startups and MSMEs to Airbus takes immense RESPONSE decision-making is taking its toll as nations don’t forget to share your feedback with us. in defence production to Proposition” to India starts Executive, General play a significant role pride in being a partner to invest their money and from Production to Transfer Atomics sharing his towards India’s journey India’s growing aerospace ‘Raksha Anirveda’ editorial find it difficult to align national interests talent on a long-term of Technology for fulfilling insights on how India-US into making a vigorous industry and Make in India team looks forward to receive with their global ambitions. Jai Hind!!. basis, then the Ministry the requirements within relations grown over the defence ecosystem, is at the centre stage of comments and views from the Historically speaking, India’s priorities of Defence must ensure a the country, explains Yoav years in terms of defence opines Mwiven MD while it’s strategy. Remi Maillard, readers on the content of the credible and stable ‘level Har-Even, President and and strategic footprints, appreciating Government’s Airbus India President magazine. Ajit Kumar Thakur playing field’ through CEO of Rafael Advanced and GA’s support to India’s latest initiative to promote describes about company’s Editor & Business Director critical policy reforms Defense Systems Ltd Indigenization journey the sector India connection COVER GRAPHICS: ANGAD MAOLANKAR RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 3
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA OPINION: DIPLOMACY THIS DECADE www.raksha-anirveda.com FROM TURMOIL TO CLARITY: INTERNATIONAL The year 2021 therefore is beginning with a certain clarity which only the turmoil of 2020 could have made possible. Consequently, key aspects of the RELATIONS IN THE NEW DECADE global order this year will be sculpted by the legacy of the year gone by. And perhaps no other factor will have as much of an impact on international affairs as China’s foreign policy trajectory By HARSH V PANT under President Xi Jinping. Xi India’s foreign has already veered away from policy will have e enter a new year and a new decade of the 21st century as the world his predecessors in carving a W around us is evolving at such a rapid pace, with a scale and scope often more ambitious and aggressive to respond to difficult to comprehend. For scholars and pundits, older paradigms have approach to the external world. the meta-trends ceased being adequate in guiding their analyses about the national and As the COVID-19 outbreak reached global political environment. Policymakers, for their part, are being forced pandemic proportions, he used by crafting an to respond in real time to the challenges coming from multiple dimensions. the crisis as an opportunity The year that has just passed was a reminder that history can be made to expand China’s geopolitical approach that is up of events — and their consequences — beyond anyone’s control. footprint across the world — from Mr Xi with Russian President Vladimir Putin more than just the The world was blindsided by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has not the South and East China Seas to geopolitical contest of the coming only taken lives and livelihoods but is accentuating the trends that were the Himalayas, from Europe to years. Even if Biden decides to sum of its bilateral already visible in the last few years: changing global balance of power, the West Asia. As Xi lays down a engage China after assuming the and multilateral weakening multilateral institutions, growing disenchantment with the blueprint for a new world order presidency later in January, it is global economic order, and challenges to the extant normative consensus. hinged on the Chinese Communist unlikely to change the longer- engagements Party’s worldview, the rest of the term trajectory of this bilateral world will be anxiously looking relationship. The sharpening of for a greater balance in the global their tensions will be accentuated matrix. in the domains of trade and For much of the rest of the world, technology — the two areas that such anticipation extends to the have been driving the global wait for the Biden administration economic order in the last several in the United States to set out decades. its own foreign policy agenda. Attempts by key global actors Joe Biden has come to power at toward trade and technological a time when America is divided decoupling are setting the stage on the fundamental values it has for a conflict that is challenging An image depicting multi-nation relations historically espoused. And while the fundamentals of globalisation Donald Trump will soon be leaving as we have known it since the supply chains to connectivity the White House, Trumpism is alive early 1990s. An ongoing backlash initiatives — shoring up support and well. American leadership against globalisation is likely to for globalisation will only become is in great demand precisely at a gain further momentum, especially more difficult. time when the country’s ability to as the costs of global integration This fragmentation will deliver on its global commitments are seemingly rising by the day. influence the future of global is at its weakest because of fraying Already, there is a recalibration multilateralism. While most domestic consensus. happening across the West where nations continue to profess their Yet one area where there is even mainstream political parties abiding faith in multilateralism, emerging consensus not only have been changing their long- the institutional manifestations in the US but globally as well is held positions on issues such as underpinning the extant order are the challenge that China poses trade and migration. It is unlikely, getting hobbled by their internal to US interests and to the global however, to be restricted to the contradictions. Indeed, a global order. The US-China contestation West. As the world becomes health pandemic should have Chinese President Xi Jinping with then US President Donald Trump is shaping up as the epochal more fragmented — from been the high point of the search 4 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 5
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA OPINION: DIPLOMACY THIS DECADE Ensure Your Advantage some of the traditional calculus as we know them. And then there is the West Asia, a region that tends to hog the global limelight. The Abraham Accords have managed to overturn a number of assumptions about regional politics, opening up new Advanced Suite for Fighter Jets possibilities in the region, both for cooperation and renewed conflict. Indian foreign policy will have to respond to these meta-trends by crafting an approach that is more than just the sum of its bilateral and multilateral UNSC meeting engagements. The year gone by was an inflection point in India’s The most consequential China policy as it made clear theatre of this emerging for New Delhi the choices that geopolitical and geoeconomic it faces in the coming years and jostling will be the Indo-Pacific, decades. But the crisis with China which is already the centre of continues, even as the world’s gravity of global opportunities expectations for India to play a and challenges – a process that larger global role are heightening. will hasten in the near future. For An aspirational India in the third all of China’s attempts to discredit decade of the 21st century will the idea of the Indo-Pacific, its no longer be satisfied with sitting unprecedented acceptance -- from on the margins; it is eager to play Western Europe to the far shores in the big league. Like the rest of of the Pacific — merely shows that the world, India will have to deal for a collective solution; instead, its time has come. The churn in with its health and economic it has turned out to be its nadir. this maritime geography will see crises in 2021. At the same Not only is China challenging an a strengthening of “coalitions of time, however, it will also have order that it believes was created the willing” in the absence of any opportunities to mould global in its absence, but even the US, formal institutional architecture discourse and outcomes, whether which was its most important and in light of an intensified major with its purported role as the THE ABILITY AND founder, seems dissatisfied with power contestation. “pharmacy of the world,” or as a WILLINGNESS the status quo. The other geography that non-permanent member of the OF INDIAN The same liberal order that is key to unlocking the global United Nations Security Council. POLICYMAKERS has arguably been central to geopolitical chessboard will The ability and willingness of TO MAKE USE maintaining peace and prosperity be Eurasia, where the Sino- Indian policymakers to make OF THESE worldwide for more than seven Russian entente is producing use of these opportunities will OPPORTUNITIES decades is proving incapable of new realities and can profoundly not only determine India’s global WILL NOT ONLY finding equitable and effective shape the global balance of footprint but will also outline the DETERMINE INDIA’S GLOBAL solutions to today’s common power. While unlikely to result trajectory of global politics in the FOOTPRINT challenges. This signals a in a formal alliance, the China- coming decade. remarkable retreat: a fragmented Russia relationship is disproving The article was earlier published (https:// BUT WILL ALSO www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/turmoil- OUTLINE THE global order is emerging not only some of the initial skepticism clarity-international-relations-new-decade/) TRAJECTORY OF in traditional spheres of global about it. Its future trajectory will on Observer Research Foundation portal. GLOBAL POLITICS IN THE COMING governance but also in those areas not only shape the geopolitics -The writer is Director of Studies and Head See us at where new norms are needed to of the heartland but will also of Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. The DECADE be set — such as space, cyber and push other major powers into views expressed above belong to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Aero India 2021 emerging strategic technologies. reacting in ways that will upend Raksha Anirveda HALL C 5.9-6.0 6 www.raksha-anirveda.com
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY www.raksha-anirveda.com DYNAMICS OF MILITARY DIPLOMACY IN THE ASIAN SUBCONTINENT Interestingly, Asia as a continent is increasingly becoming the focus of interest for the United States and the world since it is home to 40 per cent of the world GDP, 65 per cent of global population, and accounts for seven largest militaries with six declared nuclear states Indian Army jawans trade, competing territorial with the national flag claims, and consequent demands for military force is creating a new Indo-Pacific “Ring of Fire” and defence preparedness. and time factor it can be acquired IN THE INDIAN CONTEXT A VISIBLE SHIFT IN THE of potential conflict flashpoints However for an enduring peace, through “military alliance’. DEFENSIVE MINDSET OF THE POLITICAL CLASS IS principally surrounding India it is incumbent that India should In the Indian context a visible ALLOWING FOR GREATER MILITARY FLEXIBILITY and SCS. The perceived Chinese endeavour to bridge this capability shift in the defensive mindset IN CALIBRATING SUCH RESPONSES, MADE hegemonistic aim appears to imbalance with military diplomacy of the political class is allowing POSSIBLE BY ACQUISITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF stymie the growth of India as a as an instrument of state craft. for greater military flexibility WEAPON SYSTEMS WITH INCREASED STANDOFF global power while taking full Therefore from a regional strategic in calibrating such responses, RANGES, WARHEAD LETHALITY AND PRECISION ENGAGEMENT control over the SCS. security standpoint China shall made possible by acquisition be the principal adversary as and development of weapon Islands by coercion and North STRATEGIC SECURITY SITUATION we stretch into the next decade. At the same time there will be a systems with increased standoff ranges, warhead lethality and Korea’s belligerent behaviour contingent on its nuclear missile IN SOUTH AND EAST ASIA marked escalation in the ongoing precision engagement. Air power, programs and the abductions of India terrorist and irregular threats, as long range artillery, weaponised Japanese citizens. Thus Japanese well as perceived conventional Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) foreign policy and security The ongoing border intransigence and nuclear threats from less- /drones, maritime dominance perceptions have undergone a with China is vexed with a sense formidable regional opponents. and space based deterrence shall perceptible and steady change to By MAJ GEN G SHANKARNARAYANAN (RETD) of political and military insecurity While border provocations, be significant contributors. That include India within its ambit of T borne out of the visible military with the potentials for escalation, notwithstanding the focus should security alliance. These actions he growing dominance of China and its intimidating stance in the Asian asymmetry in numbers and require a challenging and equally be on global military alliances may be viewed as a significant step subcontinent has fuelled its expansionist tendencies across its land technology besides its collusive befitting response, it calls for as part of defence diplomacy in India’s growing international borders and costal frontiers. Over the years China’s visible coercive and intent with Pakistan. That a robust military capability to that shall play a dominant role politico-security profile to not only threatening activities along the Sino-Indian Line of Actual Control (LAC) notwithstanding, India is today deal with such incursion besides in checkmating a belligerent act as a regional stabilising factor and in the South China Sea (SCS) has led to a partial destruction of the juxtaposed between a global being prepared to counter any adversary. It represents a collective addressing hard security concerns strategic balance in the region. On land, China has moved steadily to take economic and political power in possible escalation. In this regard show of force with shared interest against China and North Korea but full control over the territory and its restive minority population in Tibet, being and a regional nuclearised India today is at the threshold of a against a common enemy and will also to dispel Japan’s maritime defend its ground lines of communication to Central Asia via Pakistan military power whose war credible deterrence against China. act as a deterrent besides allowing insecurities that emerge from its through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy, and exert increasing waging potentials transcend these However it needs to build on it to the flexibility of leveraging military quest for assured energy supplies pressure on its border with India. seemingly debilitating military reach a level where it can translate strengths in times of conflict. and security of its large maritime inequalities. While the hard fact into a limited punitive deterrence interests as a trading nation. of China’s military modernisation that is capable of imposing Japan Towards this end India‘s bilateral At sea, China has increased its South China Sea (SCS), the Indian and increasingly aggressive foreign reasonable destructive costs in Japan’s regional security threats, summit has spelt out concrete maritime presence and influence Ocean to Djibouti and other parts of policy cannot be wished away, men and material. The capability stems from China’s relentless steps on a range of global and from the Senkaku Islands in the eastern Africa. From a geo strategic it can be militarily confronted should preferably be intrinsic but attempts to change the status quo regional security issues including East China Sea through Taiwan, perspective, the confluence of given the current political will considering the prohibitive cost of the sea area around the Senkaku maritime cooperation in the Indo- 8 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 9
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY www.raksha-anirveda.com THESE ACTIONS Pacific region where the influence already signed similar agreements independent state and is dwarfed encroachment and reaffirms its MAY BE VIEWED of China is growing. Revival of with the US, France and Singapore. by China’s sheer size and military long standing strategy of “four-nos AS A SIGNIFICANT Quadrilateral Security Dialogue The inclusion of Australia in capability. Crucially, the military and one-depend.” This means no STEP IN INDIA’S (QUAD) signals deeper defence MALABAR, the annual India-Japan- gap between China and Taiwan military alliances, no siding with GROWING cooperation. US maritime exercise is reflective widens every year. Although it one country against another, no INTERNATIONAL of the regional credibility of QUAD is under Washington’s military foreign military bases, and no using POLITICO- SECURITY PROFILE Australia which in the limited sense may be commitment, these are highly force or threatening to use force TO NOT ONLY ACT India and Australia, against the classified as an extension of India’s ambiguous. More recently China’s in international relations; but, AS A REGIONAL backdrop of their frosty relations defence diplomacy where joint border clashes with India have “depending on circumstances and STABILISING with China, unveiled a shared exercises and capability matching evoked anti-Beijing sentiments specific conditions, Vietnam will FACTOR vision for maritime cooperation are a part. among the Indian public which has consider developing necessary and ADDRESSING in the Indo-Pacific, as a counter led to a growing sense of solidarity appropriate defence and military HARD SECURITY to the growing Chinese military Taiwan with the pro-independence relations with other countries.” CONCERNS assertiveness. As a sequel to China’s aggressive military probing movements in Hong Kong and It represents the flexibility AGAINST Chinese border incursion with has been going on for years — Taiwan. Close on its heel is the and resilience long embedded CHINA AND India and strained relations with an unending stress test for the US legislations for the support in Vietnam’s foreign policy and NORTH KOREA Australia, after Canberra pitched democratic island of Taiwan. But of Taiwan. However, India’s significantly expands the spectrum Four-nation naval display at Malabar exercise BUT ALSO TO for an international probe into in 2020, the threat has taken on a approach has been one of caution of strategic choices by giving the DISPEL JAPAN’S MARITIME the origin of the Coronavirus new intensity wherein Taiwan had but soon could change if the border military more room to manoeuvre. to Beijing. If true, this naval to involve as many major powers THE INCLUSION INSECURITIES pandemic which is widely believed to scramble fighters to intercept intransigence continues. The strategic necessity of dealing outpost will put Cambodia in an in the regional balance, so that no OF AUSTRALIA to have started in China’s Wuhan Chinese warplanes flying towards with an aggressive China brings uncomfortable position vis-à- power can dominate, Singapore IN MALABAR, THAT EMERGE FROM ITS QUEST city, the India-Australia relations or even into Taiwan’s airspace. Vietnam India and Vietnam closer together. vis neighbouring Thailand and and the Association of Southeast THE ANNUAL FOR ASSURED touched a new level with both With China, cracking down on Vietnam considers the Asia- Vietnam has been emerging as a Vietnam, who have beefed up Asian Nations (ASEAN). Its INDIA-JAPAN- ENERGY SUPPLIES the countries elevating their ties freedom fighters in Hong Kong, Pacific region, including Southeast pivotal state in India’s Act East their armed forces in recent years position of not “choosing sides” US MARITIME AND SECURITY to a “comprehensive strategic accused of sweeping repression Asia, to be not only its own policy, which can be reflected in besides impacting the existing between Beijing and Washington EXERCISE IS OF ITS LARGE partnership”, that includes against the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, living space, but also a centre multiple dimension of cooperation regional security architecture in comes as a natural evolution of its REFLECTIVE OF MARITIME a reciprocal access to military expanding in the South China Sea, for dynamic development that including defence cooperation. Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific balance-of-power approach. Its THE REGIONAL INTERESTS AS A CREDIBILITY OF bases namely the Mutual Logistics and clashing with India in the occupy an increasingly important as a whole. While Indo Cambodian relation with India also continues TRADING NATION Support Agreement (MLSA). Himalayas, Taiwan seems to be geo-economic, geo-politic and Cambodia relations are cordial it needs to on similar lines while maintaining QUAD WHICH IN THE LIMITED The MLSA will allow militaries next on the line. geo-strategic significance. Most Although the current marriage build its relations with India, to a strong military diplomacy for its SENSE MAY BE of the two countries to use each Whereas Taiwan, despite importantly, it recognises the of convenience with China yields avoid overdependence on China. security preparedness. CLASSIFIED AS other’s bases for repair and flourishing into a vibrant, high- region as a boiling cauldron economic benefits today, this trend Cambodia has to invigorate the AN EXTENSION replenishment of supplies besides tech democratic society since where great powers compete could potentially drag Cambodia Indian card to balance China’s Indonesia OF INDIA’S facilitating scaling up of overall its split from mainland China, for influence. China’s Belt and into Beijing’s geopolitical tutelage economic and geopolitical The recent tensions between DEFENCE defence cooperation. India has is yet to be recognised as an Road Initiative and the US Free and, as a result, threaten its national influence in Cambodia as well as China and Indonesia in the Natuna DIPLOMACY and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy security interest in the long in Southeast Asia. islands, has once again put the WHERE JOINT among others, are mechanisms run, if not properly strategised. spotlight on this flashpoint, and EXERCISES AND for these powers to exert control. Internally, the influx of Chinese Singapore is expected to continue with a CAPABILITY MATCHING ARE From a strategic standpoint immigrants has fuelled criminal The island nation has maintained range of ongoing Indonesian A PART Hanoi considers disputes in the activities and alienated local its ties with Washington and Beijing reactions. But importantly it South China Sea as one of the and foreign tourists from other without provoking the ire of either reflects Indonesia’s inability to most destabilising elements that countries. Economically, Cambodia side. But as US-China relations deter Beijing’s incursion into threaten regional stability. More is now one of several countries deteriorate and tensions grow in Jakarta’s waters. While Indonesia explicitly than ever in the recent around the world whose debt to the South China Sea, Singapore’s technically does not consider itself past, Vietnam has endured Chinese China amounts to more than 25 per balancing act is proving to be a claimant in the South China Sea assertiveness, including unilateral cent of its gross domestic product amorphous. However, Singapore’s disputes, it is an interested party and power-based coercion, (GDP). long-standing relationship with to safeguard regional stability, violation of international law, Diplomatically, Cambodia’s the United States is a classic and uphold international law, militarisation, change in the status- reputation on the world stage has exposition of the island nation’s including the United Nations quo and infringement over its suffered a number of setbacks. foreign policy – taking the world Convention of the Law of the Sea sovereign rights, and jurisdiction. The military agreement between as it is, and seeking to entrench (UNCLOS), as the world’s largest While it does not call out Cambodia and China in Ream American power and presence archipelagic state. Indonesia’s China by name, it is clear that Naval Base is another sign of in the region for the collective traditional approach to the South Quad nations foreign ministers at a meeting Vietnam reflects fears of Chinese Phnom Penh’s unhealthy drift good. Singapore has also sought China Sea can be best summed up 10 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 11
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY www.raksha-anirveda.com to 40 per cent of the world GDP, and continued belligerent and and irregular warfare, followed in fact enshrined in the wider MILITARY 65 per cent of global population, provocative stance all along the by force relocation to augment diplomatic exchange. It is aimed DIPLOMACY and accounts for seven largest northern borders, tending to resources thereby creating at regular summits, information OF QUAD militaries with six declared nuclear precipitate a war, has been one positions of strategic advantage exchanges and military drills SHOULD ALSO states. Thus, in the twenty-first of its kind since the conflict of vis a vis China. From a maritime between members to outweigh STRATEGISE TO century, Asia is the focus of 1962. From a broader strategic perspective India on the other the military superiority of China NEUTRALISE THE MILITARY power dynamics, and economic perspective it gives an impression hand maintains virtually all its thereby limiting its hegemonestic IMBALANCE globalisation. Ironically China’s that China is testing waters to forces in the Indian Ocean Region, tendencies. In due course QUAD IN THE REGION aggressive posturing in Eastern assess India’s retaliatory stance while most of China’s forces are must enhance the scope to WITH A CLEAR Ladakh and coercive actions in the given its military asymmetry with east of Malacca. This will put a include most of the aggrieved MANDATE OF South China Sea is a destabilising India. On the contrary the bold great deal of pressure on China to states whose interests have been COLLABORATIVE factor that has necessitated global and resolute action on the part either keep its Indian Ocean forces impinged by China. MILITARY intervention with US bearing of the Indian Army to occupy as a fleet in being, or to rapidly link ASSISTANCE the mantle. Thus Asia’s growing economic importance and China dominating heights in the face of Chinese provocative incursions its western and eastern forces. This, in turn, will put pressure on CONCLUSION THEREBY ACHIEVING being a major power, its behaviour thwarting large scale Chinese build India to prevent these outcomes. The fact that the world is viewing CONFLICT has assumed even greater up has been demonstrative of the Therefore, control of several major China as the sole perpetrator of TERMINATION IN FAVOURABLE significance for the United States country’s resolve to deal with such chokepoints including the straits of the Wuhan Virus, there has been TERMS SHOULD and the world particularly when incursions politically and militarily. Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok gives a significant relook to allow for a THE NEED ARISE US China relations have sharply It has also sent a clear message that India the unique opportunity to strategic, political and economic deteriorated. India is now capable of retaliatory operate on interior lines to prevent isolation of China. In fact, QUAD is US President Joe Biden Beijing and Washington traded actions and is being viewed as a China from gaining maritime emerging as a dominant security as a “delicate equilibrium”, seeking talks between India and Indonesia blame over the Coronavirus stabilising factor in the region. superiority in the Indian Ocean. structure vis a vis China. Hence the to engage China diplomatically on who have agree to expand defence pandemic, remained locked in However under the prevailing scope and engagement with QUAD the issue while at the same time pursuing a range of security, legal, ties and technology sharing. a trade war, competed over 5G networks and other technologies, geo strategic situation, this may be a quick fix but in a conflict MILITARY DIPLOMACY AT PLAY should include all the ASEAN nations and must be escalated to and economic measures designed to protect its own interests. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and clashed over rights abuses in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, situation between India and China, two scenarios emerge: an Specific to India, in either scenario a military alliance with US will the next level of military diplomacy that will serve to stymie China’s While Indonesia has taken (USA) - THE CHANGING among other issues. The latest escalation of a border dispute significantly alter the strategic aggressiveness besides acting as FUNDAMENTALS OF US-CHINA actions in response to periodic is the contentious issues of US along the LAC reminiscent of imbalance besides lowering an effective counter against any incursions into Indonesian waters, legislations in support of Taiwan the 1962 Sino-Indian War, or a the threshold of conflict and brazen act of aggression. Military including shoring up military capabilities related to the Natuna RELATIONS and Tibet. The Tibetan Policy and Support Act of 2020 and Taiwan maritime clash in the Indian Ocean. The former is China’s attempt preventing large scale force relocation over land, sea and air by diplomacy of QUAD should also strategise to neutralise the military islands and launching diplomatic Currently, the United States and Assurance Act of 2020 include in seeking a broader reordering China. Consequently it will allow imbalance in the region with a SPECIFIC TO INDIA, IN EITHER protests, there has been no tangible China are engaged in an intensive economic sanctions against China of the political-military status India with a unique opportunity clear mandate of collaborative SCENARIO impact. Instead Chinese incursions and costly trade war that, even for appointing the next Dalai Lama quo in the region. The approach to delay and attrite Chinese forces military assistance thereby A MILITARY have continued episodically. In if resolved through negotiations, while the other seeks to strengthen might be more deliberate and while denying them the ability to achieving conflict termination ALLIANCE fact China’s deliberate efforts at is unlikely to provide the basis Washington’s ties with Taipei. expansive which will present achieve its military and political in favourable terms should WITH US WILL cyclical incursions and escalations for long-term stability. Instead, Beijing has resolutely opposed India with an unpleasant dilemma objectives through aggression. the need arise. Herein lay the SIGNIFICANTLY to test responses have also posed it may carry the seeds of future both bills since Taiwan and Tibet of either a counterattack and It is here that we clearly see the state craft of leveraging shared ALTER THE a huge issue for South China Sea confrontation. In fact, bureaucratic were China’s issues of territorial potentially escalate a conflict importance of military diplomacy military capability of likeminded STRATEGIC claimant states, be it Malaysia, processes on both sides are integrity. However, be that as it against a superior foe, or accept a which goes beyond the accepted countries with common National IMBALANCE which traditionally prides itself on straining to keep up with the may, it is clear that South and loss of territory and the political principles of peacetime military challenges. A strategy that has BESIDES having a special relationship with growing diversity and complexity East Asia are emerging as global ramifications that shall ensue. collaboration and humanitarian found favour with Washington LOWERING THE Beijing, or Vietnam, which remains of the relationship that is global flash points with China taking the However by a careful use of terrain, assistance. under President elect Joe Biden THRESHOLD OF CONFLICT AND the most capable of standing up in scope and consequence. As centrestage. weather and tri-service combined The formation of the who is looking to build a coalition PREVENTING to China. China emerges as a global power arms force application it is possible Quadrilateral Security Dialogue an of likeminded partners and allies LARGE SCALE FORCE Thus with Chinese incursions continuing unabated the South the confrontation seems more belligerent and challenging US CONFLICT SITUATION to achieve disruption, dislocation and destruction of the Chinese informal strategic dialogue between India, US, Japan and Australia with a with shared interests and values to confront China - a step in the RELOCATION China Sea is heating up to be a interests. WITH INDIA military over time. shared objective to support a “free, right direction. OVER LAND, global flashpoint. The issue of Interestingly, Asia as a continent In physical terms it will entail open and prosperous” Indo-Pacific –The writer is a former GOC-Indian Army SEA AND AIR BY China’s aggressive posturing in is increasingly becoming the focus In the Indian context the border a border engagement supported Region is an effective counter to and presently a Strategic Consultant & CHINA eastern Ladakh and South China of interest for the United States skirmish by China followed by by capability incapacitation using China that seeks to threaten the Principal Advisor. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the Sea figured in the recent ministerial and the world since it is home large scale troop mobilisation long range weapons systems region. Military diplomacy is views of Raksha Anirveda 12 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 13
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA OPINION www.raksha-anirveda.com DEEPENING DEFENCE TIES IN A CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER Apart from internal integration of security imperatives and apparatus within the country, India has to actively think of issue-based security and technology alignments with prominent likeminded strategic partners across the desired security spectrum direct ramifications for India. In such a scenario, even though India Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu Mr Modi with then US President Donald Trump is averse to traditional alliance structures it will be forced to of Indo-Pacific gaining traction, structures as well as big power MECHANISMS LIKE IONS, ANTI-PIRACY enter into issue based alignments India’s Act East Policy, the SAGAR rivalries. Cyber security and OPERATIONS, IORA AND BILATERAL by reaping the congruence of initiative and the more recent Artificial Intelligence (AI) have AND MULTILATERAL INTEROPERABILITY economics of objectives and Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative become the new norm across ARRANGEMENTS WITH FRIENDLY COUNTRIES polity of threat perceptions in (IPOI) there is a need to look the spectrum and need constant LIKE US, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, FRANCE, UK AND accordance with the common beyond the Indian Ocean Region upgradation to deal with hitherto GERMANY WHO HAVE DEVISED INDO-PACIFIC denominator being the mutually (IOR) and explore the Indo-Pacific unknown challenges. Terrorists STRATEGIES AND DOCTRINES ACQUIRE MUCH GREATER SALIENCE beneficial matrix of strategic and Region. Mechanisms like IONS, use disruptive technologies better reliable choices. Anti-piracy operations, IORA than the Nation States. Non-State that India’s defence and security Maritime issues, whether and bilateral and multilateral Actors have been embedded doctrine should not only attempt considered hard or soft, traditional interoperability arrangements and nurtured by some states to have a non-conventional edge or non-traditional impact the Blue with friendly countries like US, including in our region and serve or parity but also ensure nuclear Economy of nations, including Japan, Australia, France , UK and as instruments of their foreign deterrence capability and tweak landlocked nations, with spin-offs Germany who have devised Indo- policy. Hence, a comprehensive its doctrine accordingly. There is Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and EAM S Jaishankar with their US counterparts during 2+2 dialogue at the regional and global levels. Pacific strategies and doctrines security architecture including a greater likelihood of a two-front Therefore, in order to pursue acquire much greater salience. At the traditional and non-traditional war for which India needs to have By AMB ANIL TRIGUNAYAT a sustainable and secure Blue the same time we have to maintain dimensions must be built in which military and technological gear T Economy, there is a need to ensure our primacy in the region be it on international collaboration with up. For same reasons India figures he World is in disarray. Multilateralism at its lowest point and Unilateralism a stable, secure and peaceful land, air or sea beginning with friendly countries has a central prominently in the South Asia and dictating the international discourse especially as the sole hyper power Maritime Environment. our extended neighbourhood by role at least until “Atmanirbharta” Indo-Pacific strategic calculus under US President Donald Trump created a paradigm shift with his India has over 7,500 km following a policy of “Concentric becomes a reality. Of course, we of USA whose key objective is to destabilising Twiplomacy for friends and foes alike. Covid-19 engineered coastline and we have seen the Circles of Security Perimeter” must secure ourselves internally keep the South China Sea lanes and a global recession and unprecedented economic downturn. China has been worst attacks of 26/11 that were which should not only ensure our and externally. No one is going Indo-Pacific free for navigation. flexing its expansionist muscles. Sino-US Trade wars and implicit conflictual mounted from the sea. Moreover, security but should assure the to do it for us unless we wish to Japan and Australia have been relationship threatening to enter Cold War 2.0 of a different genre. State India’s trade and energy security security of our partners. Military be subjected to the geo-politico- facing the Chinese brunt and sponsor terrorism and asymmetric warfare from our western and northern through the Strait of Hormuz Capability and political intent and strategic games of major powers. expansionist policies whereas borders is a contiguous reality. Fact that Sino-Pak axis becoming toxic in and Arabian Sea is dependent will to exercise this benign power Only the strong can demand and India not only had to fight a war the region poses tremendous security challenges for India. on our capabilities to provide a are essential ingredients for India. enforce peace and security. with China but also continues to sustained protection and response World and global power In the changed global scenario remain a major challenge and mechanism in accordance with equations are going through a and emerging world order China illegal occupant of her territories. Generally economy and a closed mindset have become our maritime doctrine driven for churn. Newer challenges are and its proxies like Pakistan China’s “String of Pearls” and security are becoming two sides a common phenomenon. Indo- securing our national interests. posed for the concerns of defence (both nuclear power states) play possible militarisation of its Belt of the same coin the prospects of Pacific has become a new theatre of Oceans are not restricted by any and security, technology and a truant role in India’s strategic and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy, protectionism, unilateralism and geo-strategic competition that has boundaries and with the concept economy, and changing alliance matrix .Therefore, it is imperative economic and technological 14 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 15
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA OPINION www.raksha-anirveda.com A COMPREHENSIVE edge and adventurism pose a India’s objectives for ensuring its for Multi-Sectoral Technical and remains New Delhi’s major SECURITY peculiar threat to India’s security comprehensive security within the Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) partner in civil nuclear energy ARCHITECTURE and sovereignty. Hence, India context of Strategic Partnership. At must be accorded highest priority. and space cooperation and one of INCLUDING THE responded to US overtures the same time India will have to In West Asia we have crucial the few countries which agree to TRADITIONAL AND positively and has expanded to continue with its ‘Neighbourhood stakes and hence India has to transfer the military technology NON-TRADITIONAL conduct “Malabar “exercises with First Policy’ to work closely for work for acquiring strategic whether we have been able to use DIMENSIONS Japan and Australia in the context their economic and security depth through mutually beneficial it effectively is debatable. BrahMos MUST BE BUILT IN WHICH of QUAD and the Indo-Pacific. development to avoid being pulled projects and partnerships in missile is a credible exception. INTERNATIONAL It has signed nearly all major down in the regional context. Sub- bilateral and trilateral domain. Russia’s suspicion of India’s COLLABORATION agreements ensuring exchange and regional connectivity projects Likewise in Africa we have to carry closeness to Washington and US’s WITH FRIENDLY interoperability with the US be it under the Bangladesh, Bhutan, on with our development, defence suspicion of India’s closeness to COUNTRIES HAS Logistics Exchange Memorandum India, Nepal (BBIN) initiative and digital partnership directly Moscow are difficult to leverage as A CENTRAL ROLE of Agreement or LEMOA (2016), and the Bay of Bengal Initiative and with likeminded democracies. Russia-China strategic partnership AT LEAST UNTIL Communications Compatibility and has the potential to become a “ATMANIR- Security Agreement or COMCASA military alliance if pushed or Multi-nation naval ships during Malabar exercise BHARTA” (2018) and Basic Exchange and threats perception exceeds their BECOMES A Cooperation Agreement or BECA threshold. What we can leverage CHINA’S “STRING REALITY (2020) as an extension to General is a truly transactional relationship OF PEARLS” Security of Military Information and India’s market strength and AND POSSIBLE Agreement or GSOMIA (2002) and potential with anyone who is MILITARISATION Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2008. eyeing India’s huge defence pie. OF ITS BORDER India may have to overlap its Technology will underwrite the AND ROAD reciprocal access arrangements 21st century hence Indovation is INITIATIVE (BRI) STRATEGY, with Japan, Australia as well as extremely important. But given ECONOMIC AND both have nationalised security the systemic malaise it might be TECHNOLOGICAL arrangements with the US to meet a while. Hence as argued by C EDGE AND its growing security challenges. Rajamohan, ‘The time is now ripe ADVENTURISM France, UK and Germany are for Delhi to consider coalition- POSE A other three major countries building as a major tool of its PECULIAR looking at the Indo-Pacific rather tech-diplomacy. India has figured THREAT seriously and France and UK do quite prominently in the US and TO INDIA’S Naval ships in column during Malabar 2020 have adequate maritime presence Western discourse on building SECURITY AND and arrangements in the region new coalitions to promote and Recently speaking at Manohar likeminded strategic partners SOVEREIGNTY. and key understandings with regulate advanced technologies. Parrikar Institute for Defence across the desired security HENCE, INDIA PM Modi with then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe RESPONDED TO them could help in meeting The size of India’s market as well Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA)/ spectrum. It would require US OVERTURES Russia is a unique partner as its technological capabilities Forum for Integrated National advocacy and an ongoing SWOT POSITIVELY AND but at odds on the Indo-Pacific make it an attractive partner in Security (FINS) External Affairs analysis of available strategic HAS EXPANDED construct which it considers as a the effort to build “technology Minister Dr S Jaishankar aptly space and workable initiatives TO CONDUCT containment against China and coalitions of the capable and noted, “To my mind, adequately as the strategic autonomy and “MALABAR where it feels its own strategic willing.” Likewise the growth of securitising foreign policy is for national interest are ensured. For “EXERCISES interest might be adversely autonomous weapons systems mean absolute imperative…, there contending with the emerging WITH JAPAN affected especially as it does not and ongoing militarisation of outer are the daily security challenges of global dynamics India has to work AND AUSTRALIA feel that US-Russia relations will space have created an urgency to long borders and large sea space. through its strategic calculations IN THE CONTEXT improve anytime sooner especially step up India’s comprehensive The thinking and planning of a and more integrated matrix of OF QUAD AND under Biden Presidency. It causes strategic doctrine. The “Artemis polity that operates in such an economic strength, smart military THE INDO- PACIFIC some perception problem for India Accords” must be seriously uncertain environment naturally capability, astute diplomacy, for which Russia is her special and examined. In the domain of across should give primacy to hard firm leadership and conviction privileged partner and supplier the board technological revival security.” combined with its philosophy of technologies and over 70 per and adaptation, Israel can become Hence apart from internal of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” and cent of its conventional arms and an effective strategic partner integration of security imperatives Vasudhaiv Kutumbakam. ammunition including nuclear and a conduit for joint research and apparatus within the country -The writer is a former Indian Ambassador submarines. Even a S-400 missile and development especially as India has to actively think of issue- to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is a Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda shield will soon be there. “Abraham Accords’ also open up based security and technology International Foundation (VIF) and a Narendra Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed during the former’s visit to UAE More importantly Moscow new vistas of cooperation. alignments with prominent commentator on Foreign Policy issues 16 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 17
RAKSHA ANIRVEDA ABSOLUTE POWER www.raksha-anirveda.com chips that are at the heart of air-to- km range R-73 missile) prevented IAF’S BVR EDGE air weaponry. It is the quality of the PAF F-16s from coming to the aid ERODED WITH Fighter aircraft are chips that determines the missile’s of the Pakistan Army which was THE PAF’S not weapons but accuracy. But while other (usually taking a pounding from the Indian ACQUISITION OF THE AIM-120C weapons platforms, large) missiles can compensate Army and Air Force. AMRAAM. IN for their lack of accuracy with According to a Strategy Page and without long- sheer explosive power or speed, report, “While a number of IAF 2006, PAKISTANI range missiles INKED A DEAL air-to-air missiles are harmless aircraft took part in the Kargil FOR 500 OF and radars, the if they are not accurate. Because campaign, it was the cover THESE MACH 4 they have to be slung under the provided by the MiG-29 Fulcrum MISSILES WITH IAF is under wings of aircraft, and at least armed with BVR missiles that A RANGE OF utilising these four such missiles are needed exposed the PAF’s plight. While OVER 100 KM. powerful aircraft for an effective engagement, air- PAF fighters did fly combat air THE AIM-120C to-air missiles have to be small. patrols (CAP) during the conflict, INCORPORATES that were built for This is why the Russians were they stayed well within Pakistani A DATALINK air dominance. exceptional at building massive air space.” On occasions, IAF MiG- TO GUIDE THE MISSILE TO A Therefore, at this ballistic and anti-ship cruise 29s armed with the R-73 missiles POINT WHERE missiles, but lagged behind in air- were able to lock on to PAF F-16s, juncture, IAF has to-air missiles. forcing the latter to disengage. ITS ACTIVE RADAR TURNS two simple fixes, “The Pakistanis had no answer ON AND MAKES either it replaces AIR TO AIR CLASHES IN THE to the 30 km range R-73. In the absence of a PAF threat, the IAF TERMINAL INTERCEPT OF underperforming SUBCONTINENT was able to deliver numerous THE TARGET R-77s with better devastating strikes on intruder imports or develop The IAF enjoyed an extended positions and supply dumps.” period of air superiority in beyond However, the IAF’s BVR edge its own BVR R-77 Missile Systems on display visual range (BVR) combat with eroded with the PAF’s acquisition missiles the induction of the MiG-29 of the AIM-120C Advanced AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES: INDIA’S WINDOW Fulcrum in 1985. The value of an Medium Range Air to Air Missile RUSSIA’S TECH PROBLEM excellent dogfighter armed with a long-range weapon was proven (AMRAAM). In 2006, Pakistani inked a deal for 500 of these The dogfight from 1971 in the 1999 Kargil War when the Mach 4 missiles with a range illustrated the importance of Fulcrum (equipped with the 30 of over 100 km. The AIM-120C OF VULNERABILITY superior training and weaponry. A warplane is only as good as its air-to-air weapons. While the enemy plane and launched a Vympel the MiG-21 was without doubt R-3 (NATO codename AA-2) air-to-air a highly capable aircraft in the missile. It missed. right hands, its weakness was By RAKESH KRISHNAN SIMHA The Pakistani attempted to get away the R-3 missile. It was an exact using sheer speed but realised the MiG- copy of an AIM-9 Sidewinder air- n the afternoon of December 12, 1971, at the peak of the India-Pakistan War, 21 was equally fast. The desperate chase to-air missile that became lodged O two Lockheed F-104 Starfighters of the Pakistan Air Force crossed the Gujarat now took them over the shark-infested in a Chinese MiG-17 without border on their way to attack the forward airbase at Jamnagar. Indian Air waters of the Arabian Sea. This time, exploding. And like all knockoffs, Force radar units detected the intruders and scrambled a couple of MiG-21 instead of using missiles, the Indian pilot it simply wasn’t as good as the interceptors to deal with the threat. As the first Pakistani aircraft dived in took aim with his cannon and fired a long original. There’s a very easy towards the airfield, a patrolling MiG-21 pilot spotted the attacking aircraft burst. Flashes on the F-104’s metallic explanation for Russia lagging and got after him. The second MiG-21 went after the wingman. Realising he surface indicated a direct hit. Seconds behind the West in air-to-air was up against a much superior aircraft, he made his escape back into Pakistan. later the American-built aircraft spun missile development. out of control and crashed into the sea. The Soviet armament The Indian Navy sent a couple of search industry had suffered a 70-year His captain, however, wasn’t so turned and tried to shake off its pursuer. vessels, but the pilot was never found. At technology embargo which made lucky. Observing the MiG on his tail, the However, the Indian pilot pulled the that speed, when a plane impacts water, it difficult for Moscow to acquire Amraatm Missile System Pakistani F-104 broke off the attack, MiG-21 into a tighter turn well inside it is like hitting concrete. microprocessors or computer 18 www.raksha-anirveda.com RAKSHA ANIRVEDA JANUARY - MARCH 2021 19
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