SPDR ETFs Fixed Income Chart Pack - Q4 2020 Charts for the Latest Bond Market Insights and Analytics - State Street Global ...
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® SPDR ETFs Fixed Income Chart Pack Charts for the Latest Bond Market Insights and Analytics Q4 2020 Please see Appendix A for more information on investment terms used in this Chart Pack. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 1
Bond Market Performance While long-duration segments led performance on a trailing one-year basis, high yield outperformed investment grade bonds in Q3 Bond Sector Performance September Q3 1 Year 1 Year Max Drawdown TIPS outperformed nominals in Q3, their second 18% quarter in a row of strong performance 0% 16% -5% 1 Year Max Drawdown (%) 14% 12% -10% Returns (%) 10% 8% -15% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% -20% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% -25% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -30% T-Bills US US US TIPS US MBS US IG 1-10 Yr IG 10 Yr+ IG US High Leveraged Developed Developed EM Hard EM Local Aggregate Treasury Corporates Corporates Corporates Yield Loans Ex-US IG Ex-US Currency Currency Corporates Sovreign Sovereign Sovereign Bonds Bonds Bonds Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. As of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. T-bills - Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Tr Bills: 1-3 Months Index, US Aggregate - Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Index, US Treasury - Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index, US TIPS - Bloomberg Barclays Global Inflation-Linked: U.S. TIPS Index, US MBS - Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Index, US IG Corporates - Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, 1-10 YR IG Corporates - Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Corporate Index, 10 Yr+ IG Corporates - Bloomberg Barclays Long U.S. Corporate Index, US High Yield - Bloomberg Barclays VLI: High Yield Index, Leveraged Loans - S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, Developed Ex-US IG Corporates - Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg Corporate ex USD $1B+ Index, Developed Ex-US Sovereign Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury ex-U.S. Index, EM Hard Currency Sovereign Bonds - J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core Index, EM Local Sovereign Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Govt Diversified Index 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 2
Bond Market Yield and Duration Income remains hard to come by with traditional fixed income exposures, as the Agg yields just 1.2% and 67% lower than that of its 20 year average1 Bond Market Segments Yield and Duration Yield to Worst Duration QTD Return 10 Senior Loans offer a yield of 5.6% vs 5 4.6 5.8% for HY 8.6 8.6 8 7.1 4 6.8 6.4 Yield (%), Duration (Years) 3.5 5.8 QTD Return (%) 6 5.6 3.2 4.6 3 2.9 3.9 3.9 4 3.8 3.3 2 1.9 1.9 2.0 2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 1 0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 -2 0 Leveraged Floating Rate HY US Treasury: Corporates: EM Hard MBS Intermediate Intermediate Aggregate Broad Broad TIPS Loans Notes Corporates 1-3 Year 1-3 Year Currency Treasuries Corporates Corporates Treasuries Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses. Performance returns for periods of less than one year are not annualized. Intermediate Treasuries: Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Treasury Index, US Treasury: 1-3 Year: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year Index, Broad Treasuries: Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index, Corporates: 1-3 Year: Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate 1-3 Year Index, Aggregate: Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Index, MBS: Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Index , Intermediate Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Corporate Index , Floating Rate Notes: Bloomberg Barclays FRN < 5yr Index, Broad Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index ,HY Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index. 1Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of September 30, 2020. Yield to Worst used for the Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Index. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 3
ETF Fund Flow Trends As the market took a more risk-off tone in September, high yield ETF flows reversed course while demand for government bond ETFs increased Government Flows Versus S&P 500 Performance Trends High Yield ETF Monthly Flows ($ Billions) S&P 500 Difference to 50-Day Moving Average Rolling 30-Day Government Bond ETF Flows $10.0 20% $20 $8.0 $7.5 15% $6.3 $6.4 $15 $6.0 10% $10 $4.0 5% $3.0 $2.4 $Billions $1.6 Flows ($Billions) 0% $2.0 Difference (%) $5 -5% $0.0 $0 -10% ($0.7) ($2.0) -15% ($5) ($4.0) -20% ($4.7) ($10) ($6.0) ($5.1) -25% -30% ($15) Jan-17 Oct-17 Jul-18 Apr-19 Jan-20 Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. As of September 30, 2020, calculations by SPDR Americas Research. All figures are in USD. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 4
Active Performance Barometer Active fixed income managers continued to see strong performance in Q3 2020 after struggling to outperform the market in Q1 2020 Percent of Managers Outperforming Prospectus Benchmark Average Manager Excess Return (%) versus Prospectus Benchmark Intermediate Core Bond Intermediate Core Plus Bond HY Bond Intermediate Core Bond Intermediate Core Plus Bond 100 3 2 80 1 60 0 40 -1 20 -2 0 -3 Average excess returns were As a result of their credit bias, core plus all positive in Q3 2020 -20 managers faired the worst in Q1 2020, but -4 rebounded strongly in Q2 and Q3 -5 -40 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020 2020 Minus 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020 2020 Minus 2019 2019 Source: Morningstar as of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 5
Yield Curve The yield curve was largely unchanged in Q3, as the Fed kept short-term rates at zero and long-term rates did not budge US Treasury Curve US Treasury Active: 9/30/2020 12/31/2019 6/30/2020 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 3.0 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 Yield (%) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 YTD Trailing 3 Months 1 Month 50.0 1 1 3 4 Change in Bps 0.0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -6 -1 -4 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -50.0 -100.0 -93.4 -150.0 -123.4 -137.8 -145.2 -148.2 -146.2 -144.2 -145.2 -141.4 -136.1 -200.0 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. As of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 6
Rates Trends The yield curve traded in a narrow range throughout the quarter, but recently started to fall even as jobless claims continued to decline US 10-2 Year Spread (%) versus Initial Jobless Rate US Inflation Measures US Initial Jobless Claims 10-2 Year Headline CPI Core CPI PCE Sticky 12 Month CPI 8000 0.80 3.5 7000 0.70 3 6000 0.60 2.5 Initial Jobless Claims (Thousands) 5000 0.50 10-2 Yr Spread 2 % 4000 0.40 1.5 3000 0.30 1 2000 0.20 1000 0.10 0.5 0 0.00 0 Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. As of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 7
Credit Trends Credit spreads widened closer to their long-term averages amid the risk-off sentiment in September, except for CCC & lower high yield bonds Credit Spreads Credit Spread Changes in Basis Points 1 Year September Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index High Yield CCC & Lower 93 -19 Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Energy Index US High Yield B Rated 46 152 US High Yield BB Rated 168 46 2500 144 Broad High Yield 40 US BBB Rated 28 8 2000 IG Corporate 21 6 Credit Spread Current vs. 20-Yr Averages 1500 20-Yr. Avg September 157 1000 IG Corporate 136 166 The crossover US BBB Rated 184 segments’ spreads 500 Broad High Yield 549 are above their 517 20-year averages US High Yield BB Rated 384 400 0 US High Yield B Rated 570 567 US High Yield CCC & Lower 1168 1152 Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. BofA Merrill Lynch, As of September 30, 2020. US High Yield CCC & Lower = BofA ML US High Yield CCC & Lower Rated Index. US High Yield B Rated = BofAML US High Yield B Rated Index. BBB Rated = BofA ML US Investment Grade BBB Rated Index. Broad high yield = Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index. IG Corporate = Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 8
Credit Trends (Continued) Though downgrades decreased in Q3, 2020 total downgrades have outpaced every year over the last ten years Yearly Downgrades By Quarter for North American Credits Percent of High Yield Bonds Trading at Distressed Levels Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % HY Trading as Distressed Average 3000 Q3 saw fewer downgrades than in Q1 and Q2, as 25% The positive change in sentiment from policy has 2020 is setting records for number of downgrades decreased the percentage bonds trading distressed since Q1 2500 20% 2000 15% 1500 10% 1000 5% 500 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. BofA Merrill Lynch, as of September 30, 2020. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 9
Credit Attribution Both high yield and investment grade corporate bonds produced positive returns in Q3, however, the spread widening in September was a drag on the quarter US High Yield Attribution US IG Corporate Attribution Curve Change Curve Carry Spread Return Curve Change Curve Carry Spread Return 6 12 4.55 10 6.64 IG Credit’s strong returns in 2020 have 4 been from its duration profile 8 2 6 0 4 1.56 2 -2 -1.15 0 The change in spreads equated to -4 100% of the return in Q3 -0.29 -2 -0.08 -6 -4 Year to Date Q3 September Year to Date Q3 September Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P As of September 30, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. US IG Corporates - Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, US High Yield - Bloomberg Barclays VLI: High Yield Index 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 10
Senior Loans For investors looking for a smoother path of income generation, senior loans yield close to 5%1 with historically lower volatility than high yield Rolling 36M Volatility Yield per Unit of Average Volatility Senior Loans High Yield 1 25 0.9 0.87 0.8 20 Yield Per Unit of Average Volatility 0.7 0.61 Standard Deviation (%) 15 0.6 0.5 10 0.4 0.3 5 0.2 0.1 0 0 Senior Loans High Yield Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P., Factset as of September 30th, 2020. Senior Loans represented by the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index and High Yield by the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield VLI. Left chart: displays rolling 36M yields for the periods ending 02/28/2005-09/30/2020. Right chart: Yield to Worst used for the indices. Average rolling 36M yield for the periods ending 02/28/2005-09/30/2020 used for the volatility calculation.1Source: S&P Dow Jones as of September 30, 2020. YTM for the S&P LSTA Leveraged Loan Index = 4.93%. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 11
Hybrid Securities Convertible securities have outperformed equities with less drawdowns year to date. Preferreds may help generate income with lower credit risk than high yield YTD Performance: Converts vs. Equities and Fixed Income Yield per Unit of Volatility S&P 500 Trailing 36M Volatility Yield Yield Per Unit of Volatility Bloomberg Barclays US Convertibles Liquid Bond Index Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index 18 0.70 Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Very Liquid Index VIX Index 130 90 16 Standard Deviation (%), Yield (%) 0.60 80 14 120 Yield/Volatility Ratio 0.50 70 12 110 CBOE Volatility Index 60 0.40 Index Levels 10 100 50 8 0.30 90 40 30 6 80 0.20 20 4 70 10 0.10 2 60 0 0 0.00 Long Term Large Cap Agg Preferreds High Yield Treasuries Dividend Equities Source: Left chart: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of September 30th 2020. Right chart: Bloomberg Factset, Bloomberg Finance, L.P. as of September 30th 2020. The yield to worst for the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 20+ Years Bond Index, Wells Fargo Hybrid and Preferred Securities Aggregate Index and the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield VLI. The dividend yield is used for the S&P 500 High Yield Aristocrates Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 12
EM Debt Attribution Emerging market local currencies rallied by 2.7% on the quarter, benefiting exposures with a currency bias like EM Local debt EM Local Sovereign Debt Attribution EM Local Sovereign Debt Return Correlation to EM Currencies (2009 – 2020) Curve Change Curve Carry Spread Return Currency Return 5% EM Currency Monthly Returns 4 2% 3 1.82 -1% Correlation: 92% 2 -4% 1 -7% 0 -10% -10% -5% 0% 5% -1 -0.39 EM Local Sovreign Debt Monthly Returns -2 14% EM Currency 1 Year Standard -3 In Q3, currency effects were positive to Deviation Returns 12% EM Debt. However, not in September. 10% -4 8% -5 6% Correlation: 88% -1.59 4% -6 2% Year to Date Q3 September 0% Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. As of September 30, 2020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% EM Local – Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Sovereign Bond Index. EM Local Sovereign 1 Year Standard Deviation of Returns Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 13
Bond Market Opportunities Three strategies outside of the Agg exposure to pursue more income, while balancing sources of risk Senior Loans to Preferreds to Emerging Market Reduce Credit Improve Income Debt to Add Volatility Diversification Currency Driven Income seeking investors who Preferred may be appropriate Income are averse to the increased for investors seeking the highest A weakening US dollar may be credit risk of high yield bonds yields in the investment grade a total return tailwind for may want to consider senior universe while maintaining 1 Emerging Market Debt (EMD) loans as they yield close to 5% overall portfolio diversification as and given that a primary and historically have had lesser preferreds have relatively low source of return deviations are volatility than high yield historic correlations to traditional from the currency, EMD may stocks and bonds (0.52 and 2 further diversify income 0.40, respectively) generation within a portfolio 1Source: S&P Dow Jones as of September 30th 2020. YTM used for the Senior Loans are represented by the S&P LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index. YTM = 4.93%. 2 Source: Factset, Bloomberg Finance, L.P, Correlation and Beta measured for the 10 year period ending 09/30/2020. Wells Fargo Hybrid and Preferred Securities Aggregate Index used to represent Preferreds, S&P 500 used to represent Equities and the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index used to represent bonds. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 14
Appendix A Definitions Basis Point: One hundredth of one percent, or 0.01%. The Bloomberg Barclays US Convertible Liquid Bond Index is designed to represent the market of U.S. convertible securities, such as convertible bonds. The Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Bill Index tracks the market for treasury bills issued by the US government. US Treasury bills are issued in fixed maturity terms of 4-, Credit Spread: A credit spread is the difference in yield between a US Treasury bond and 13-, 26- and 52-weeks. The US Treasury Bill Index is a component of the US Short a debt security with the same maturity but of lesser quality. Treasury Index along with US Treasury notes and bonds that have fallen below one year to maturity. Parity The value of the underlying equity if the convertible is converted. It is equal to the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares for which the bond may be The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a measure of global investment exchanged. grade debt from 24 local currency markets. This multi- currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index: The S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 developed and emerging markets issuers. Index is designed to reflect the largest facilities in the leveraged loan market. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks agency Delta: The sensitivity of one asset to an underlying deriviative mortgage pass-through securities (no longer incorporates hybrid ARM) guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed Spread Changes: Changes in the spread between Treasury securities and non-Treasury by grouping individual TBA- deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on securities that are identical in all respects except for quality rating. program, coupon and vintage. Parity The value of the underlying equity if the convertible is converted. It is equal to the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index: A benchmark that provides a measure of the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares for which the bond may be performance of the US dollar denominated investment grade bond market, which includes exchanged. investment grade government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, mortgage pass through securities, commercial mortgage backed securities and asset backed securities Standard Deviation: Measures the historical dispersion of a security, fund or index that are publicly for sale in the US. around an average. Investors use standard deviation to measure expected risk or volatility, and a higher standard deviation means the security has tended to show higher Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate 1–3 Year Index: The Index includes publicly issued volatility or price swings in the past. US dollar denominated corporate issues that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to 1 year and less than 3 years, are rated investment grade. Yield: The income produced by an investment, typically calculated as the interest received annually divided by the investment’s price. Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable Yield Curve: A graph or line that plots the interest rates or yields of bonds with similar corporate and government related bond markets. It is composed of the US Corporate credit quality but different durations, typically from shortest to longest duration. When the Index and a non-corporate component that includes foreign agencies, sovereigns, yield curve is said to be flat, it means the difference in yields between bonds with shorter supranationals and local authorities. and longer durations is relatively narrow. When the yield curve is said to be steepened, it means the difference in yields between short term and long term bonds increases. The Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Currency Liquid Government Index is a country-constrained, more liquid version of the flagship Emerging Markets Local Yield to Worst: Yield to worst is an estimate of the lowest yield that you can expect to Currency Government Index, which is designed to provide a broad measure of the earn from a bond when holding to maturity, absent a default. It is a measure that is used in performance of local currency Emerging Markets (EM) place of yield to maturity with callable bonds. Bloomberg US Treasury Index: The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index is a rules- based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure the performance and characteristics of fixed rate coupon US Treasuries which have a maturity greater than 12 months. 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 15
Appendix B Important Disclosures Issued by State Street Global Advisors, Australia Services Limited (AFSL Number 274900, perceived inability or unwillingness of issuers, guarantors or liquidity providers to make ABN 16 108 671 441) ("SSGA, ASL"). Registered office: Level 14, 420 George Street, scheduled principal or interest payments; illiquidity in debt securities markets; and Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia · Telephone: 612 9240-7600 · Web: www.ssga.com. prepayments of principal, which often must be reinvested in obligations paying interest at lower rates. This material is general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider whether it is appropriate Equity securities may fluctuate in value in response to the activities of individual for you. You should seek professional advice and consider the product disclosure companies and general market and economic conditions. document, available at www.ssga.com, before deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold units in an ETF. This material should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a Investments in small-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, security. better known companies. The views expressed in this material are the views of the SPDR Americas Research Team Investments in mid-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, through the period ended 30 September 2020 and are subject to change based on market better known companies, but may be less volatile than investments in smaller companies. and other conditions. Companies with large market capitalizations go in and out of favor based on market and This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking economic conditions. Larger companies tend to be less volatile than companies with statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future smaller market capitalizations. In exchange for this potentially lower risk, the value of the performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those security may not rise as much as companies with smaller market capitalizations. projected. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied undervalued by the market for long periods of time. on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. Foreign investments involve greater risks than US investments, including political and It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax economic risks and the risk of currency fluctuations, all of which may be magnified in status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor. emerging markets. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Because of their narrow focus, sector funds tend to be more volatile. All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no Commodities investing entail significant risk as commodity prices can be extremely representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall volatile due to wide range of factors Bond funds contain interest rate risk (as interest rates have no liability for decisions based on such information. rise bond prices usually fall); the risk of issuer default; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. All the index performance results referred to are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only. It should not be assumed that they represent the performance of any The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective particular investment. owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest damages of any kind relating to the use of such data. rate risk (as interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. The values of debt securities may decrease as a result of many factors, including, by way of example, general market fluctuations; increases in interest rates; actual or 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 16
Appendix B Important Disclosures Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor/s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index. Tracking Code: 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL Expiration Date: January 31, 2021 3285399.1.1.ANZ.RTL 17
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