2019 PNC Christmas Price Index Lesson Pt. 2 - The Stock ...
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2019 PNC Christmas Price Index® Lesson Pt. 2 Suggested Grade Grades 4-12 Teacher Background A price index measures price changes through a representative group of individual items. The PNC Christmas Price Index is an index of the current costs of the goods and services listed in the classic holiday song The Twelve Days of Christmas. Calculated by PNC, the PNC Christmas Price Index reflects changes in the economy in the same way the Consumer Price Index issued by the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the current PNC Christmas Price Index (or PNC CPI) visit http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com The Consumer Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services reflecting the spending habits of the “average” American. It includes goods and services such as food, housing clothing, and utilities. Its percent change is widely used as a measure of inflation. If inflation is higher than expected it may cause the stock market to become bearish. For more information about the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) visit https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ The purpose of these activities is to demonstrate how an investor might use consumer indexes like the CPI and the PNC CPI as an investment research tool. Vocabulary Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a gauge of inflation that measures changes in the prices of basic goods and services. It is compiled monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It tracks housing, food, clothing, transportation, medical care, and education. The CPI is used as a benchmark for making adjustments in Social Security payments, wages, pensions, and tax brackets to keep them in tune with the buying power of the dollar. Deflation: Refers to a widespread decline in prices that also has the potential to undermine the economy by stifling production and increasing unemployment. HyperInflation: Occurs when prices rise by 100% or more annually. It can destroy economic stability and even political stability by driving the price of necessities higher than people can afford. Index: Is a statistical measure of the changes in a portfolio of stocks representing a portion of the overall market. It is a sample meant to represent the performance of the whole. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 1 of 18
Inflation: A persistent increase in prices, often triggered when demand for goods is greater than the available supply or when unemployment is low and workers can command higher salaries. The US Federal Reserve Bank and central banks in other nations try to keep inflation in check by decreasing the money supply, making it more difficult to borrow and thus slowing expansion. Performance Objectives The students will be able to: • Use an index as an investor tool. • Identify trends on the CPI and PNC CPI to forecast changes in the economy and the stock market. Materials Fact Sheet 1: The Twelve Days of Christmas Fact Sheet 2: Comparing Percent Change Fact Sheet 3: 2019 PNC CPI Press Release Activity Sheet 1: Categorically CPI Activity Sheet 2: Analyzing the Price Indexes Activity Sheet 3: Cost of Christmas Yet to Come Springboard Activity Ask your students: • What kinds of companies are you holding in your SMG portfolio? • What kinds of products and services do they provide the public? • Why did you choose to invest in them? • Will the holidays affect how your Stock Market Game portfolio performs? Explain. Ask your students if they are familiar with the “Consumer Price Index?” If they familiar with the term, ask them where they heard about it and how it was used? Provide your students with this definition: The Consumer Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services reflecting the spending habits of the “average” American. It includes goods and services such as food, housing clothing, and utilities. Its percent change is widely used as a measure of inflation. If inflation is higher than expected it may cause the stock market to become bearish (meaning stock prices fall). Ask your students: “Is your Stock Market Game team invested in a company that provides goods or services used to calculate the Consumer Price Index?” PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 2 of 18
Direct your students to the CPI News Releases section of the Consumer Price Index website: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/news.htm. Review the latest news release and ask your students: “How will the latest Consumer Price Index report impact the price of your Stock Market Game portfolio?” Inform your students that the PNC Christmas Price Index mirrors the activity of the Consumer Price Index. Tell them the following activities will teach them more about the Consumer Price Index and how it is used to make investment decisions. Procedure Students can work individually or in their teams to complete the Consumer Price Index and Analyzing the Price Indexes activities. Activity The Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index looks at average change over time in the prices paid for consumer goods and services. It includes the following categories (Source: “Consumer Price Index: CNBC Explains,” https://www.cnbc.com/id/43769766): FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks); HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture); APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry); TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance); MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services); RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions); EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories); OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses). Ask your students to match True Love’s gifts to a CPI category using Activity Sheet 1. The goal of the activity is to help student visualize the modern equivalents of True Love’s gifts. Answers may vary so allow enough time to discuss their responses. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 3 of 18
Comparing Indexes In 2019, the total value of the gifts in the song is $38,993.59, a 0.2% increase from the previous year. In describing the PNC CPI, PNC says it mirrors the government’s CPI report. Ask your students to explore this statement by plotting the annual percent change of the PNC CPI and the government’s CPI on Activity Sheet 1 using the data in Fact Sheet 1. Answers for this activity will vary. With a few exceptions the PNC CPI line and the CPI line should mirror each other’s rise and fall. If needed please help students understand that positive numbers mean the index rose and negative numbers mean the index fell. It can be confusing since they are graphing percentage change and not prices. Assessment In their press release, PNC’s chief investment strategist for the Asset Management Group Amanda Agati noted that this year’s PNC Christmas Price Index stayed relatively flat, despite the stock market’s record highs. This means that Christmas 2019 is only slightly more expensive that Christmas 2018. Their press release cited these notable changes: • Doves Dive: The price for Turtle Doves was down a dramatic 20%, the first drop in price since 2004. • Rings Are Golden: After falling in 2018 due to less demand and fluctuations in gold prices, Gold Rings rebounded with a 10% increase in 2019. • Geese Gain Again: For the second year in a row, geese saw a substantial rise in price, gaining 7.7% in 2019, largely due to an increase of interest in backyard farming. PNC’s press release is provided as Fact Sheet 3. Ask your students to use it and the graph they created in Activity Sheet 2 to predict next year’s PNC Christmas Price Index. Which items do they believe will rise the most in cost? Which do they believe will drop the most? And which do they believe will just stay the same? They should also include economic and social factors that they believe would affect the cost of Christmas. Also provide your students with the URL for the interactive graph in the About the Index section of the PNC Christmas Price Index website. The graph allows them to view the price change graphs of individual items as well as the complete cost of Christmas. https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/#about Students can use the CPI News Releases section of the Consumer Price Index (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/news.htm) website for historical Consumer Price Index information. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 4 of 18
Enrichment According to Wikipedia, True Love first gave his presents in 1780 (the publication date of “Twelve Days of Christmas”). What would good friends or lovers give each other as gifts today? A Sonos Surround Sound system (Symbol: SONO)? An Apple watch (Symbol: AAPL)? Something from Tiffany’s (Symbol: TIF)? Ask your students alone or in their SMG teams to modernize the “Twelve Days of Christmas” with gifts that would be appropriate in today’s culture. The only restriction they have is that the gifts must be produced, provided by (if that gift is a service of some kind), or distributed by a publicly traded company. Their final presentation should be in the form of a song like the original “Twelve Days of Christmas.” For example: One the first day of Christmas My True Love gave to me An Apple watch with a gift card to Apple’s iTune’s store PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 5 of 18
Fact Sheet 1: The Twelve Days of Christmas On the first day of Christmas My true love gave to me: Three French Hens, A partridge in a pear tree. Two turtle doves And a Partridge in a pear tree. On the second day of Christmas My true love gave to me: On the seventh day of Christmas Two turtle doves My true love gave to me: And a Partridge in a pear tree. Seven swans a swimming, Six geese a laying, On the third day of Christmas Five golden rings, My true love gave to me: Four calling birds, Three French Hens, Three French Hens, Two turtle doves Two turtle doves And a Partridge in a pear tree. And a Partridge in a pear tree. On the fourth day of Christmas On the eighth day of Christmas My true love gave to me: My true love gave to me: Four calling birds, Eight maids a milking, Three French Hens, Seven swans a swimming, Two turtle doves Six geese a laying, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Five golden rings, Four calling birds, On the fifth day of Christmas Three French Hens, My true love gave to me: Two turtle doves Five golden rings, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Four calling birds, Three French Hens, On the ninth day of Christmas Two turtle doves My true love gave to me: And a Partridge in a pear tree. Nine ladies dancing, Eight maids a milking, On the sixth day of Christmas Seven swans a swimming, My true love gave to me: Six geese a laying, Six geese a laying, Five golden rings, Five golden rings, Four calling birds, Four calling birds, Three French Hens, PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 6 of 18
Two turtle doves Five golden rings, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Four calling birds, On the tenth day of Christmas Three French Hens, My true love gave to me: Two turtle doves Ten lords a leaping, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Nine ladies dancing, Eight maids a milking, On the twelfth day of Christmas Seven swans a swimming, My true love gave to me: Six geese a laying, Twelve drummers drumming, Five golden rings, Eleven pipers piping, Four calling birds, Ten lords a leaping, Three French Hens, Nine ladies dancing, Two turtle doves Eight maids a milking, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Seven swans a swimming, Six geese a laying, On the eleventh day of Christmas Five golden rings, My true love gave to me: Four calling birds, Eleven pipers piping, Three French Hens, Ten lords a leaping, Two turtle doves Nine ladies dancing, And a Partridge in a pear tree. Eight maids a milking, Seven swans a swimming, Six geese a laying, SOURCE: http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/c/christmas_songs/the_twelve_days_of_christmas.html PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 7 of 18
Fact Sheet 2: Comparing Percent Change PNC Christmas Price Index Annual Percent Change Year % Change 2019 0.2 2018* 1.2 2017 0.7 2016 0.6 2015 0.8 2014 1 2013 6.6 2012 5.3 2011 4.6 2010 8.8 2009 0.3 2008 11 2007 2.6 2006 2.6 2005 7.2 2004 2.1 2003 18.4 2002 -10.7 2001 3 2000 2.2 1999 3.5 1998 5.1 1997 1.3 1996 4 1995 -26 1994 0.8 1993 1 1992 0.7 1991 1.4 1990 4 1989 -- PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 8 of 18
Consumer Price Index Annual Percent Change Year % Change(rate of inflation) 2019* 1.8 2018 2.4 2017 2.1 2016 1.3 2015 0.1 2014 1.6 2013 1.5 2012 2.1 2011 3.2 2010 1.6 2009 -0.4 2008 3.8 2007 2.9 2006 3.2 2005 3.4 2004 2.7 2003 2.3 2002 1.6 2001 2.8 2000 3.4 *An estimate for 2019 1999 2.2 is based on the change in the CPI from second 1998 1.6 quarter 2017 to second 1997 2.3 quarter 2019. 1996 2.9 1995 2.8 Source: 1994 2.6 https://www.minnea 1993 3.0 polisfed.org/about- 1992 3.0 us/monetary- policy/inflation- 1991 4.2 calculator/consumer- 1990 5.4 price-index-1800- 1989 -- PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 9 of 18
Fact Sheet 3: 2019 PNC Press Release It's A Silent Night For '12 Days of Christmas' Prices, According to PNC • PNC celebrates its 36th year of tallying the cost of the gifts in the classic holiday song • Gold rings in the season; turtle dove prices head south • Overall costs stay flat after a 1.2% increase in 2018 PITTSBURGH, Nov. 20, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The PNC Christmas Price Index predicts True Loves will find all is calm when putting the gifts under the tree this holiday shopping season. To purchase the gifts included in the classic holiday song "The 12 Days of Christmas," it will cost just 0.2% more than it did in 2018, according to the 36th annual holiday economic analysis by The PNC Financial Services Group. PNC calculated the 2019 price tag for The PNC Christmas Price Index at $38,993.59, a negligible $67.56 or 0.2% more than last year's cost, but less than the government's Consumer Price Index, which increased 1.8% through October in year- over-year measurement before seasonal adjustment. "Despite the stock market hitting record highs recently, it is a welcome gift for the holidays that the PNC Christmas Price Index stayed relatively flat this year," said Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist for PNC Asset Management Group. "However, the scrooges of the season are the gold rings which saw the biggest year- over-year price increase in the index, and prices for some of our fowl friends which are truly foul." The cost of each item was revealed this morning on PNC's interactive website (pnc.com/ChristmasPriceIndex), which teaches consumers about the index and features a historical comparison of index data. This year's insights include: • Doves Dive: The price for Turtle Doves was down a dramatic 20%, the first drop in price since 2004. • Rings Are Golden: After falling in 2018 due to less demand and fluctuations in gold prices, Gold Rings rebounded with a 10% increase in 2019. • Geese Gain Again: For the second year in a row, geese saw a substantial rise in price, gaining 7.7% in 2019 largely due to an increase of interest in backyard farming. To mirror the government's core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, PNC removes the Swans – typically the most volatile item in the index – from its total index. The core PNC Christmas Price Index was up 0.3% from a year ago, while the government's core Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% year-over-year through PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 10 of 18
October. Normally, both core indexes trail fluctuations seen in the overall index prices. For tech-savvy True Loves, the PNC Christmas Price Index also calculates the cost of "The Twelve Days of Christmas" gifts purchased on the internet. As Internet prices tend to be higher due to travel and shipping costs, True Loves will have to splurge $42,258.91 ($3,265.32 more than in-store purchases) for the convenience of online shopping this year. A PNC predecessor bank in Philadelphia began estimating the cost of the 12 Christmas gifts in 1984 as a holiday client letter. This year's price is approximately 95% higher than the inaugural report 35 years ago. As part of its annual tradition, PNC also tabulates the "True Cost of Christmas," which is the total cost of items bestowed by a True Love who repeats all the song's verses. Purchasing all 364 gifts will require $170,298.03, down $64.23 from last year. The PNC index's sources include retailers, hatcheries, the Philadelphia-based PHILADANCO and Pennsylvania Ballet Company. The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: PNC) is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending, wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 11 of 18
2019 PNC Christmas Price Index® Based upon the song "The Twelve Days of Christmas" TRADITIONAL INTERNET % % Chang Chang e e 2019/1 2019/1 2018 2019 8 2018 2019 8 $ 220.1 $ 210.1 $ 284.1 $ 285.1 One Partridge in a Pear Tree 3 7 -4.5% 8 8 0.4% $ 20.1 $ 20.1 $ 110.1 $ 110.1 Partridge 8 8 0.0% 8 8 0.0% $ 199.9 $ 189.9 $ 174.0 $ 175.0 Pear Tree 5 9 -5.0% 0 0 0.6% $ 375.0 $ 300.0 $ 450.0 $ 375.0 Two Turtle Doves 0 0 -20.0% 0 0 -16.7% $ 181.5 $ 181.5 $ 291.5 $ 291.5 Three French Hen 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% $ 599.9 $ 599.9 $ 418.0 $ 418.0 Four Calling Birds 6 6 0.0% 0 0 0.0% $ 750.0 $ 825.0 $ 969.7 $ 969.7 Five Gold Rings 0 0 10.0% 5 5 0.0% $ 390.0 $ 420.0 $ 1,548.0 $ 1,668.0 Six Geese-a-Laying 0 0 7.7% 0 0 7.8% $ 13,125.0 $ 13,125.0 $ 15,165.0 $ 15,165.0 Seven Swans-a-Swimming 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% $ 58.0 $ 58.0 $ 391.6 $ 408.6 Eight Maids-a-Milking 0 0 0.0% 8 4 4.3% $ 7,552.8 $ 7,552.8 $ 7,552.8 $ 7,552.8 Nine Ladies Dancing 4 4 0.0% 4 4 0.0% $ 10,000.0 $ 10,000.0 $ 10,000.0 $ 10,000.0 10 Lords-a-Leaping 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% $ 2,726.1 $ 2,748.8 $ 2,475.0 $ 2,475.0 11 Pipers Piping* 0 7 0.8% 0 0 0.0% $ 2,947.5 $ 2,972.2 $ 2,650.0 $ 2,650.0 12 Drummers Drumming* 0 5 0.8% 0 0 0.0% $ 38,926.0 $ 38,993.5 $ 42,195.9 $ 42,258.9 Total Christmas Price Index* 3 9 0.2% 5 1 0.1% True cost of Christmas in $170,362.2 $170,298.0 $194,390.9 $194,502.7 song* 6 3 0.0% 2 2 0.1% "Core" index, excluding $ 25,801.0 $ 25,868.5 $ 27,030.9 $ 27,093.9 swans* 3 9 0.3% 5 1 0.2% PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 12 of 18
Activity Sheet 1: Categorically CPI Organize True Love’s gifts into one of the categories used to determine the Consumer Price Index. Be sure to explain your reasoning in the Rationale column. Gifts Category Rationale Twelve drummers drumming Eleven pipers piping Ten lords a leaping Nine ladies dancing Eight maids a milking Seven swans a swimming PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 13 of 18
Gifts Category Rationale Six geese a laying Five golden rings Four calling birds Three French Hens Two turtle doves A Partridge in a pear tree. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 14 of 18
Activity Sheet 2: Analyzing the Price Indexes Graph the percent changes of the indexes to analyze them. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 15 of 18
Draw 12 conclusions that can be evidenced from the graph: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 16 of 18
Activity Sheet 3: Cost of Christmas Yet to Come Estimate the prices of the individual gifts mentioned in the Twelve Days of Christmas song and the total cost of this year’s PNC Christmas Price Index. HINT: Looking at the difference in prices over a longer period of time could potentially provide a more accurate estimate of the price changes. Visit the About the Index section of the PNC Christmas Price Index website to view price graphs from 1984 to present: https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/#about. Price Estimate % Change Estimated Estimated % 2018 2019 2019/18 2020 Change One Partridge in a Pear Tree $ 220.13 $ 210.17 -4.5% Partridge $ 20.18 $ 20.18 0.0% Pear Tree $ 199.95 $ 189.99 -5.0% Two Turtle Doves $ 375.00 $ 300.00 -20.0% Three French Hen $ 181.50 $ 181.50 0.0% Four Calling Birds $ 599.96 $ 599.96 0.0% Five Gold Rings $ 750.00 $ 825.00 10.0% Six Geese-a-Laying $ 390.00 $ 420.00 7.7% Seven Swans-a-Swimming $ 13,125.00 $ 13,125.00 0.0% Eight Maids-a-Milking $ 58.00 $ 58.00 0.0% Nine Ladies Dancing $ 7,552.84 $ 7,552.84 0.0% 10 Lords-a-Leaping $ 10,000.00 $ 10,000.00 0.0% 11 Pipers Piping* $ 2,726.10 $ 2,748.87 0.8% 12 Drummers Drumming* $ 2,947.50 $ 2,972.25 0.8% Total Christmas Price Index* $ 38,926.03 $ 38,993.59 0.2% PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 17 of 18
Rationale Describe the process you used to arrive at your predictions for the 2020 PNC Christmas Prices Index? Be sure to include factors and cite resources that helped you arrive at your conclusion. Be specific. PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Page 18 of 18
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