2019 PNC Christmas Price Index Lesson Pt. 2 - The Stock ...

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CONTINUE READING
2019 PNC Christmas Price Index® Lesson Pt. 2
Suggested Grade
Grades 4-12

Teacher Background
A price index measures price changes through a representative group of individual items.
The PNC Christmas Price Index is an index of the current costs of the goods and services
listed in the classic holiday song The Twelve Days of Christmas. Calculated by PNC, the PNC
Christmas Price Index reflects changes in the economy in the same way the Consumer Price
Index issued by the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the
current PNC Christmas Price Index (or PNC CPI) visit
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com

The Consumer Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services
reflecting the spending habits of the “average” American. It includes goods and services
such as food, housing clothing, and utilities. Its percent change is widely used as a measure
of inflation. If inflation is higher than expected it may cause the stock market to become
bearish. For more information about the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) visit
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

The purpose of these activities is to demonstrate how an investor might use consumer
indexes like the CPI and the PNC CPI as an investment research tool.

Vocabulary
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a gauge of inflation that measures changes in the prices
of basic goods and services. It is compiled monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It
tracks housing, food, clothing, transportation, medical care, and education. The CPI is used
as a benchmark for making adjustments in Social Security payments, wages, pensions, and
tax brackets to keep them in tune with the buying power of the dollar.

Deflation: Refers to a widespread decline in prices that also has the potential to undermine
the economy by stifling production and increasing unemployment.

HyperInflation: Occurs when prices rise by 100% or more annually. It can destroy
economic stability and even political stability by driving the price of necessities higher than
people can afford.

Index: Is a statistical measure of the changes in a portfolio of stocks representing a portion
of the overall market. It is a sample meant to represent the performance of the whole.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 1 of 18
Inflation: A persistent increase in prices, often triggered when demand for goods is greater
than the available supply or when unemployment is low and workers can command higher
salaries. The US Federal Reserve Bank and central banks in other nations try to keep
inflation in check by decreasing the money supply, making it more difficult to borrow and
thus slowing expansion.

Performance Objectives
The students will be able to:

    •   Use an index as an investor tool.
    •   Identify trends on the CPI and PNC CPI to forecast changes in the economy and the
        stock market.

Materials
Fact Sheet 1: The Twelve Days of Christmas
Fact Sheet 2: Comparing Percent Change
Fact Sheet 3: 2019 PNC CPI Press Release
Activity Sheet 1: Categorically CPI
Activity Sheet 2: Analyzing the Price Indexes
Activity Sheet 3: Cost of Christmas Yet to Come

Springboard Activity
Ask your students:

    •   What kinds of companies are you holding in your SMG portfolio?
    •   What kinds of products and services do they provide the public?
    •   Why did you choose to invest in them?
    •   Will the holidays affect how your Stock Market Game portfolio performs? Explain.

Ask your students if they are familiar with the “Consumer Price Index?” If they familiar with
the term, ask them where they heard about it and how it was used?

Provide your students with this definition:

        The Consumer Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services
        reflecting the spending habits of the “average” American. It includes goods and
        services such as food, housing clothing, and utilities. Its percent change is widely
        used as a measure of inflation. If inflation is higher than expected it may cause the
        stock market to become bearish (meaning stock prices fall).

Ask your students: “Is your Stock Market Game team invested in a company that provides
goods or services used to calculate the Consumer Price Index?”

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 2 of 18
Direct your students to the CPI News Releases section of the Consumer Price Index website:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/news.htm.

Review the latest news release and ask your students: “How will the latest Consumer Price
Index report impact the price of your Stock Market Game portfolio?”

Inform your students that the PNC Christmas Price Index mirrors the activity of the
Consumer Price Index. Tell them the following activities will teach them more about the
Consumer Price Index and how it is used to make investment decisions.

Procedure
Students can work individually or in their teams to complete the Consumer Price Index and
Analyzing the Price Indexes activities.

Activity

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Consumer Price Index looks at average change over time in the prices paid for
consumer goods and services. It includes the following categories (Source: “Consumer Price
Index: CNBC Explains,” https://www.cnbc.com/id/43769766):

        FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service
        meals, snacks);

        HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom
        furniture);

        APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry);

        TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance);

        MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services,
        eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services);

        RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment,
        admissions);

        EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services,
        computer software and accessories);

        OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other
        personal services, funeral expenses).

Ask your students to match True Love’s gifts to a CPI category using Activity Sheet 1. The
goal of the activity is to help student visualize the modern equivalents of True Love’s gifts.
Answers may vary so allow enough time to discuss their responses.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 3 of 18
Comparing Indexes

In 2019, the total value of the gifts in the song is $38,993.59, a 0.2% increase from the
previous year. In describing the PNC CPI, PNC says it mirrors the government’s CPI report.
Ask your students to explore this statement by plotting the annual percent change of the
PNC CPI and the government’s CPI on Activity Sheet 1 using the data in Fact Sheet 1.

Answers for this activity will vary. With a few exceptions the PNC CPI line and the CPI line
should mirror each other’s rise and fall. If needed please help students understand that
positive numbers mean the index rose and negative numbers mean the index fell. It can be
confusing since they are graphing percentage change and not prices.

Assessment
In their press release, PNC’s chief investment strategist for the Asset Management Group
Amanda Agati noted that this year’s PNC Christmas Price Index stayed relatively flat,
despite the stock market’s record highs. This means that Christmas 2019 is only slightly
more expensive that Christmas 2018.

Their press release cited these notable changes:

    •   Doves Dive: The price for Turtle Doves was down a dramatic 20%, the first drop in
        price since 2004.
    •   Rings Are Golden: After falling in 2018 due to less demand and fluctuations in gold
        prices, Gold Rings rebounded with a 10% increase in 2019.
    •   Geese Gain Again: For the second year in a row, geese saw a substantial rise in
        price, gaining 7.7% in 2019, largely due to an increase of interest in backyard
        farming.

PNC’s press release is provided as Fact Sheet 3. Ask your students to use it and the graph
they created in Activity Sheet 2 to predict next year’s PNC Christmas Price Index. Which
items do they believe will rise the most in cost? Which do they believe will drop the most?
And which do they believe will just stay the same? They should also include economic and
social factors that they believe would affect the cost of Christmas.

Also provide your students with the URL for the interactive graph in the About the Index
section of the PNC Christmas Price Index website. The graph allows them to view the price
change graphs of individual items as well as the complete cost of Christmas.
https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/#about

Students can use the CPI News Releases section of the Consumer Price Index
(http://www.bls.gov/cpi/news.htm) website for historical Consumer Price Index information.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 4 of 18
Enrichment
According to Wikipedia, True Love first gave his presents in 1780 (the publication date of
“Twelve Days of Christmas”). What would good friends or lovers give each other as gifts
today? A Sonos Surround Sound system (Symbol: SONO)? An Apple watch (Symbol: AAPL)?
Something from Tiffany’s (Symbol: TIF)?

Ask your students alone or in their SMG teams to modernize the “Twelve Days of Christmas”
with gifts that would be appropriate in today’s culture. The only restriction they have is that
the gifts must be produced, provided by (if that gift is a service of some kind), or distributed
by a publicly traded company.

Their final presentation should be in the form of a song like the original “Twelve Days of
Christmas.” For example:

        One the first day of Christmas
        My True Love gave to me
        An Apple watch
        with a gift card to Apple’s iTune’s store

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 5 of 18
Fact Sheet 1: The Twelve Days of Christmas
On the first day of Christmas
My true love gave to me:                               Three French Hens,
A partridge in a pear tree.                            Two turtle doves
                                                       And a Partridge in a pear tree.
On the second day of Christmas
My true love gave to me:                               On the seventh day of Christmas
Two turtle doves                                       My true love gave to me:
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        Seven swans a swimming,
                                                       Six geese a laying,
On the third day of Christmas                          Five golden rings,
My true love gave to me:                               Four calling birds,
Three French Hens,                                     Three French Hens,
Two turtle doves                                       Two turtle doves
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        And a Partridge in a pear tree.

On the fourth day of Christmas                         On the eighth day of Christmas
My true love gave to me:                               My true love gave to me:
Four calling birds,                                    Eight maids a milking,
Three French Hens,                                     Seven swans a swimming,
Two turtle doves                                       Six geese a laying,
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        Five golden rings,
                                                       Four calling birds,
On the fifth day of Christmas                          Three French Hens,
My true love gave to me:                               Two turtle doves
Five golden rings,                                     And a Partridge in a pear tree.
Four calling birds,
Three French Hens,                                     On the ninth day of Christmas
Two turtle doves                                       My true love gave to me:
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        Nine ladies dancing,
                                                       Eight maids a milking,
On the sixth day of Christmas                          Seven swans a swimming,
My true love gave to me:                               Six geese a laying,
Six geese a laying,                                    Five golden rings,
Five golden rings,                                     Four calling birds,
Four calling birds,                                    Three French Hens,

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 6 of 18
Two turtle doves                                       Five golden rings,
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        Four calling birds,
On the tenth day of Christmas                          Three French Hens,
My true love gave to me:                               Two turtle doves
Ten lords a leaping,                                   And a Partridge in a pear tree.
Nine ladies dancing,
Eight maids a milking,                                 On the twelfth day of Christmas
Seven swans a swimming,                                My true love gave to me:
Six geese a laying,                                    Twelve drummers drumming,
Five golden rings,                                     Eleven pipers piping,
Four calling birds,                                    Ten lords a leaping,
Three French Hens,                                     Nine ladies dancing,
Two turtle doves                                       Eight maids a milking,
And a Partridge in a pear tree.                        Seven swans a swimming,
                                                       Six geese a laying,
On the eleventh day of Christmas                       Five golden rings,
My true love gave to me:                               Four calling birds,
Eleven pipers piping,                                  Three French Hens,
Ten lords a leaping,                                   Two turtle doves
Nine ladies dancing,                                   And a Partridge in a pear tree.
Eight maids a milking,
Seven swans a swimming,
Six geese a laying,

SOURCE: http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/c/christmas_songs/the_twelve_days_of_christmas.html

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 7 of 18
Fact Sheet 2: Comparing Percent Change

PNC Christmas Price Index Annual Percent Change

 Year                           % Change
 2019                           0.2
 2018*                          1.2
 2017                           0.7
 2016                           0.6
 2015                           0.8
 2014                           1
 2013                           6.6
 2012                           5.3
 2011                           4.6
 2010                           8.8
 2009                           0.3
 2008                           11
 2007                           2.6
 2006                           2.6
 2005                           7.2
 2004                           2.1
 2003                           18.4
 2002                           -10.7
 2001                           3
 2000                           2.2
 1999                           3.5
 1998                           5.1
 1997                           1.3
 1996                           4
 1995                           -26
 1994                           0.8
 1993                           1
 1992                           0.7
 1991                           1.4
 1990                           4
 1989                            --

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 8 of 18
Consumer Price Index Annual Percent Change

Year                          % Change(rate of inflation)
2019*                         1.8
2018                          2.4
2017                          2.1
2016                          1.3
2015                          0.1
2014                          1.6
2013                          1.5
2012                          2.1
2011                          3.2
2010                          1.6
2009                          -0.4
2008                          3.8
2007                          2.9
2006                          3.2
2005                          3.4
2004                          2.7
2003                          2.3
2002                          1.6
2001                          2.8
2000                          3.4                                        *An estimate for 2019
1999                          2.2                                        is based on the change
                                                                         in the CPI from second
1998                          1.6
                                                                         quarter 2017 to second
1997                          2.3                                        quarter 2019.
1996                          2.9
1995                          2.8
                                                                          Source:
1994                          2.6
                                                                          https://www.minnea
1993                          3.0                                         polisfed.org/about-
1992                          3.0                                         us/monetary-
                                                                          policy/inflation-
1991                          4.2                                         calculator/consumer-
1990                          5.4                                         price-index-1800-
1989                          --

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 9 of 18
Fact Sheet 3: 2019 PNC Press Release

It's A Silent Night For '12 Days of Christmas' Prices,

According to PNC
   • PNC celebrates its 36th year of tallying the cost of the gifts in the classic
       holiday song
   • Gold rings in the season; turtle dove prices head south
   • Overall costs stay flat after a 1.2% increase in 2018

PITTSBURGH, Nov. 20, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The PNC Christmas Price Index
predicts True Loves will find all is calm when putting the gifts under the tree this
holiday shopping season. To purchase the gifts included in the classic holiday song
"The 12 Days of Christmas," it will cost just 0.2% more than it did in 2018, according
to the 36th annual holiday economic analysis by The PNC Financial Services Group.

PNC calculated the 2019 price tag for The PNC Christmas Price Index at $38,993.59,
a negligible $67.56 or 0.2% more than last year's cost, but less than the
government's Consumer Price Index, which increased 1.8% through October in year-
over-year measurement before seasonal adjustment.

"Despite the stock market hitting record highs recently, it is a welcome gift for the
holidays that the PNC Christmas Price Index stayed relatively flat this year," said
Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist for PNC Asset Management Group.
"However, the scrooges of the season are the gold rings which saw the biggest year-
over-year price increase in the index, and prices for some of our fowl friends which
are truly foul."

The cost of each item was revealed this morning on PNC's interactive website
(pnc.com/ChristmasPriceIndex), which teaches consumers about the index and
features a historical comparison of index data. This year's insights include:

    •   Doves Dive: The price for Turtle Doves was down a dramatic 20%, the first
        drop in price since 2004.
    •   Rings Are Golden: After falling in 2018 due to less demand and fluctuations
        in gold prices, Gold Rings rebounded with a 10% increase in 2019.
    •   Geese Gain Again: For the second year in a row, geese saw a substantial
        rise in price, gaining 7.7% in 2019 largely due to an increase of interest in
        backyard farming.

To mirror the government's core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, PNC
removes the Swans – typically the most volatile item in the index – from its total
index.

The core PNC Christmas Price Index was up 0.3% from a year ago, while the
government's core Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% year-over-year through

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 10 of 18
October. Normally, both core indexes trail fluctuations seen in the overall index
prices.

For tech-savvy True Loves, the PNC Christmas Price Index also calculates the cost of
"The Twelve Days of Christmas" gifts purchased on the internet. As Internet prices
tend to be higher due to travel and shipping costs, True Loves will have to splurge
$42,258.91 ($3,265.32 more than in-store purchases) for the convenience of online
shopping this year.

A PNC predecessor bank in Philadelphia began estimating the cost of the 12
Christmas gifts in 1984 as a holiday client letter. This year's price is approximately
95% higher than the inaugural report 35 years ago.

As part of its annual tradition, PNC also tabulates the "True Cost of Christmas,"
which is the total cost of items bestowed by a True Love who repeats all the song's
verses. Purchasing all 364 gifts will require $170,298.03, down $64.23 from last
year. The PNC index's sources include retailers, hatcheries, the Philadelphia-based
PHILADANCO and Pennsylvania Ballet Company.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: PNC) is one of the largest diversified
financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers
and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business
banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for
corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate
finance and asset-based lending, wealth management and asset management. For
information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 11 of 18
2019 PNC Christmas Price Index®
                                Based upon the song "The Twelve Days of Christmas"
                                           TRADITIONAL                            INTERNET
                                                               %                                 %
                                                             Chang                             Chang
                                                                e                                e
                                                             2019/1                            2019/1
                                    2018          2019          8        2018        2019        8
                                  $   220.1    $   210.1             $   284.1    $   285.1
 One Partridge in a Pear Tree             3            7     -4.5%           8            8      0.4%
                                  $     20.1   $     20.1            $   110.1    $   110.1
 Partridge                                8            8      0.0%           8            8      0.0%
                                  $   199.9    $   189.9             $   174.0    $   175.0
 Pear Tree                                5            9     -5.0%           0            0      0.6%
                                  $   375.0    $   300.0             $   450.0    $   375.0
 Two Turtle Doves                         0            0    -20.0%           0            0     -16.7%
                                  $   181.5    $   181.5             $   291.5    $   291.5
 Three French Hen                         0            0      0.0%           0            0      0.0%
                                  $   599.9    $   599.9             $   418.0    $   418.0
 Four Calling Birds                       6            6      0.0%           0            0      0.0%
                                  $   750.0    $   825.0             $   969.7    $   969.7
 Five Gold Rings                          0            0     10.0%           5            5      0.0%
                                  $   390.0    $   420.0             $ 1,548.0    $ 1,668.0
 Six Geese-a-Laying                       0            0      7.7%           0            0      7.8%
                                  $ 13,125.0   $ 13,125.0            $ 15,165.0   $ 15,165.0
 Seven Swans-a-Swimming                   0            0      0.0%           0            0      0.0%
                                  $     58.0   $     58.0            $   391.6    $   408.6
 Eight Maids-a-Milking                    0            0      0.0%           8            4      4.3%
                                  $ 7,552.8    $ 7,552.8             $ 7,552.8    $ 7,552.8
 Nine Ladies Dancing                      4            4      0.0%           4            4      0.0%
                                  $ 10,000.0   $ 10,000.0            $ 10,000.0   $ 10,000.0
 10 Lords-a-Leaping                       0            0      0.0%           0            0      0.0%
                                  $ 2,726.1    $ 2,748.8             $ 2,475.0    $ 2,475.0
 11 Pipers Piping*                        0            7      0.8%           0            0      0.0%
                                  $ 2,947.5    $ 2,972.2             $ 2,650.0    $ 2,650.0
 12 Drummers Drumming*                    0            5      0.8%           0            0      0.0%

                                  $ 38,926.0   $ 38,993.5            $ 42,195.9   $ 42,258.9
 Total Christmas Price Index*             3            9      0.2%           5            1      0.1%

 True cost of Christmas in        $170,362.2   $170,298.0            $194,390.9   $194,502.7
 song*                                    6            3      0.0%           2            2      0.1%

 "Core" index, excluding          $ 25,801.0   $ 25,868.5            $ 27,030.9   $ 27,093.9
 swans*                                   3            9      0.3%           5            1      0.2%

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 12 of 18
Activity Sheet 1: Categorically CPI
Organize True Love’s gifts into one of the categories used to determine the
Consumer Price Index. Be sure to explain your reasoning in the Rationale column.

 Gifts                                Category                        Rationale

 Twelve drummers drumming

 Eleven pipers piping

 Ten lords a leaping

 Nine ladies dancing

 Eight maids a milking

 Seven swans a swimming

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Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
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Gifts                                Category                        Rationale

 Six geese a laying

 Five golden rings

 Four calling birds

 Three French Hens

 Two turtle doves

 A Partridge in a pear tree.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 14 of 18
Activity Sheet 2: Analyzing the Price Indexes
Graph the percent changes of the indexes to analyze them.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 15 of 18
Draw 12 conclusions that can be evidenced from the graph:

 1.

 2.

 3.

 4.

 5.

 6.

 7.

 8.

 9.

 10.

 11.

 12.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 16 of 18
Activity Sheet 3: Cost of Christmas Yet to Come
Estimate the prices of the individual gifts mentioned in the Twelve Days of Christmas
song and the total cost of this year’s PNC Christmas Price Index.

HINT: Looking at the difference in prices over a longer period of time could
potentially provide a more accurate estimate of the price changes. Visit the About
the Index section of the PNC Christmas Price Index website to view price graphs
from 1984 to present: https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/#about.

Price Estimate

                                                                  %
                                                                Change     Estimated Estimated %
                                    2018            2019        2019/18      2020      Change

 One Partridge in a Pear Tree   $    220.13     $    210.17       -4.5%

      Partridge                 $     20.18     $     20.18        0.0%

      Pear Tree                 $    199.95     $    189.99       -5.0%

 Two Turtle Doves               $    375.00     $    300.00      -20.0%

 Three French Hen               $    181.50     $    181.50        0.0%

 Four Calling Birds             $    599.96     $    599.96        0.0%

 Five Gold Rings                $    750.00     $    825.00       10.0%

 Six Geese-a-Laying             $    390.00     $    420.00        7.7%

 Seven Swans-a-Swimming         $ 13,125.00     $ 13,125.00        0.0%

 Eight Maids-a-Milking          $     58.00     $     58.00        0.0%

 Nine Ladies Dancing            $ 7,552.84      $ 7,552.84         0.0%

 10 Lords-a-Leaping             $ 10,000.00     $ 10,000.00        0.0%

 11 Pipers Piping*              $ 2,726.10      $ 2,748.87         0.8%

 12 Drummers Drumming*          $ 2,947.50      $ 2,972.25         0.8%

 Total Christmas Price Index*   $ 38,926.03     $ 38,993.59        0.2%

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 17 of 18
Rationale

Describe the process you used to arrive at your predictions for the 2020 PNC
Christmas Prices Index? Be sure to include factors and cite resources that helped you
arrive at your conclusion. Be specific.

PNC Christmas Price Index® and the PNC Logo are registered trademarks of The PNC Financial Services
Group, Inc. The Stock Market Game™ is a program of the SIFMA Foundation. Copyright © 2019 SIFMA
Foundation.
All Rights Reserved.                                                                Page 18 of 18
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