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Space Launch Market Analysis
HIE- Due Diligence Support
February 2021
www.spacetec.partners
CONFIDENTIAL
HIE commissioned a market analysis to identify the UK's global positioning
and opportunities in the space launch sector
§ The UK aims to increase its share of the global space economy to 10% by 2030 and has embraced an ambitions
commercial spaceflight initiative
§ In this context, Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) has commissioned RSM UK Consulting and its subcontractor
SpaceTec Partners (STP) to conduct an independent assessment of the current near Space launch market opportunities
§ STP is an independent management consulting firm specialised in the space sector and its application domains, with a
track record of contracts with both institutional and commercial stakeholders across Europe and abroad
§ STP has conducted an extensive market analysis of the space launch sector, which has shown that opportunities exist
for the UK to be at the forefront of the global and European small satellite launch market
– The UK is likely to launch a small orbital launcher in Europe by 2022-2025
– The total addressable market for small rockets (payload
STP is an independent management consulting firm specialised in the
space sector and its application domains
100% independent, Offices in Munich and Brussels,
privately owned hubs in London and Vienna
SpaceTec’s Sweetspot - “Where space meets business”
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 2
The performed market analysis followed a five-step approach
The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the market for small commercial and
institutional satellites, as well as rockets used for launching them, thus identifying the UK Total
Addressable Market (TAM) and competitive positioning on a global scale
Small Satellites Market
and Launches
Demand Analysis
Global space sector UK Target UK Competitive
overview and key Addressable Positioning
trends Market and SWOT
Launch Vehicles and
Spaceports Market
Analysis (Competitive
Landscape)
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 3
SpaceTec satellite launch demand forecast scenarios, are based on a detailed bottom-up analysis with focus on small sats (
While the space economy is driven by the downstream revenues, the
upstream segment, including launch services, is the backbone of the sector
Global Space Market Revenues 2018 ($ Billion) and CAGR (%)
UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
Ground
Launch Segment Satellite User Support
Space System Satellite Satellite Data
Operations and (Equipment, service equipment activities
Manufacturing Operations Sales
Services Test and provisioning manufacturing (e.g. insurance)
Services)
Revenues $20.8B $6.4B $4.6B $14B $276B
Past 10y
4.4% 1.2% 6.0% 1.0% 11.0%
CAGR
Next 10y
3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0%
CAGR
Source: Euroconsult Report 2019, SpaceTec Partners Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 5
The launch industry is considered by investors as being high risk
Market failure/additionality – previous research
Source: SpaceTec Partners- European Commission/ European Investment Bank report:
“The Future of the European Space Sector”, 2019
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 6
The space sector relies on large institutional investments
World Government Expenditures for Space Programmes (2018*) • Public investments represent the
cornerstone of the funding in space
activities, consisting of ca. $71 B in 2018*,
and growing at 3% CAGR as compared to $52
B in 2008
• Government space activities include military
applications for imagery and
communications and civil activities including
weather forecasting, science, and human
exploration
• In addition, governments, particularly those
of the United States and Europe, also
procure commercial space services,
especially launch, satellite imagery and
Legend:
communications, to meet mission
$ 40,996 M
requirements
• Governments also seek to stimulate
economic growth through space activities.
• Around 90 nations have government space
budgets, at least 9 of them over $1 B, and
nearly 20 close to $100 M
(*) according to Eurospace data, and $80-85B according to Bryce and Space Foundation
Only countries with budgets > USD 10 M are represented
Sources: Euroconsult, OECD, 2019, Bryce Space, SpaceTec analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 7
NewSpace is gradually evolving into new commercial fields beyond the
traditional space sector (e.g. constellations of small sats, smaller rockets)…
Traditional Space New Space
Institutional Commercial New Business Services
Space Space with Commercialisation Potential
LEO/MEO/GEO Services: IoT,
GNSS GeoInformation,
Launcher Media and
Data and Services
Internet for All Debris Mitigation
& Removal
Components
Military MSS/ FSS SmallSat
and Subsystems
Space Activities COM Satellites Systems
for SmallSats
On Orbit
Servicing (OOS)
Space Science LEO COM Satellites
Manufacturing in
SmallSat
Evolved PNT Microgravity Energy from Space
Constellations
and Space
Traditional EO
Satellites New and smaller Space Resource
Launch Systems Mining
Human Space
Exploration Space Humans
ISS Servicing Space Tourism
Habitats to Mars
Established Emerging
Source: SpaceTec Partners Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 8
… and new business models not only thriving on technological advancement,
but also on shorter cycles, and bold trade-off of risk, cost, and time to market
National Security
Space Situational Awareness -
Primary B2B Debris Mitigation and Removal
Business Models Short implementation
Satellite LEO Com Satellites
Manufacturing Satellite timespan
MSS/FSS Com Satellites Services
Components and Subsystems for SmallSats
Satellite Servicing
SmallSat Systems
Manufacturing in
SmallSat Constellations (e.g. EO)
Microgravity and Space
Geoinformation, Data and Services
New Launch Systems
Energy from Space Positioning, Navigation and Timing
LEO/MEO/GEO Ground
Space Resource Mining Launcher IoT, Media and Internet for All Equipment
Launch
Energy, Mining, Industry
Processing and Space Tourism
Assembly Space Habitats
Humans to Mars Space Tourism (incl.
Habitation) Primary B2C
Manned and robotic
Long Space Science and Business Models
implementation Exploration
timespan
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 9As satellites become cheaper and smaller, more and more satellites have been
launched in recent years, leading to ca. 3000 operational satellites in 2020
Operational satellites in orbit from 2009 to August 2020 Split of the operational satellites by
mass category
3000
Large satellites
2500 Small 2787 (> 500 kg)
satellites operational 39%
(≤ 500 satellites in
kg) August 2020
9.9% 61%
Operational satellites
2000
1500
2787
Split of the operational satellites by customer
type (as % of total in each category)
1000 2218 1700 1087 Total
1886
100%
1738
1419
80%
1305
1235
1071
60%
986
500 Military
40% Civil institutional
20% Commercial
0 0%
2009 … 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Small satellites Large satellites
(≤ 500 kg) (> 500 kg)
Source: UCS, SpaceTec Partners Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 10Over time, 95 countries have grown satellite capabilities, but few currently
have launch capacity. Gaining access to space capability will position UK
among leading space fairing countries
Number of countries operating and launching satellites Key insights
90 95 • Out of 195 worldwide, 95 countries operate satellites
• 6 countries launched more than 95% of the total
80 mass of satellites in 2009-2018. USA, Russia, EU and
China are the most active countries in the launch
70 sector
• Most countries rely on these 6 actors to deploy both
Countries operating their commercial and institutional satellites
60
Number of countries
satellites • Gaining access to space capability as a strategic
50 impact
Countries launching Average Annual Mass Launched in 2009-2018
40 most of the satellites (Tonnes)
70 Commercial &
Widening gap: export
26 Government
30 Opportunity to 50 29
address RoW 3
38
20 demand 30
44 42
33
10 10 19 1 0
6 6 6
0 -10 USA Russia Europe China Japan India
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Countries most active in the
satellite launch industry
Source: Avio, SpaceTec Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 11Several micro-lift rockets are emerging to offer flexible launch capabilities to
global commercial smallsat constellation operators
Rocket classification by payload capacity to LEO
Heavy-lift Medium-lift Light-lift Micro-lift
Emerging market, with
around 100 projects
under development
Payload to LEO Payload to LEO Payload to LEO Payload to LEO
> 10,000 kg 4,000 – 10,000 kg 500 – 4,000 kgCa. 100 projects globally announced to be developing a launcher to
address the SmallSat launch demand, >80% micro- and mainly vertical
Breakdown of the Breakdown of the projects by
projects by country maximum payload capacity to LEO
100% Australia Breakdown of the
South Light-lift
Light-lift micro-launchers under
America (1501-4000 kg)
(501-1500 kg) development by launch type
Europe
Other
75% Other Asian 2%
Sea
countries
5%
Micro-lift Balloon
China 7%
(100-500 kg)
50%
≤500 kg Plane
payload 9%
capacity
25% North
America Micro-lift Land
(< 100 kg) 77%
0%
Total= about 100 new projects developing light-lift
(501-4000 kg payload capacity) and micro-lift rockets (≤500 kg payload capacity)
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 13Among the existing/ planned small rockets, Orbex, followed by Isar, seem
at a more advanced development stage than their European counterparts
Projected competitiveness of European small satellites launchers
Based on public info to date and benchmark against relevant main international launchers
Heritage & reliability Technology readiness
Projected competitiveness
High
Agreements with spaceports Partnerships
Funding Launch cost
Medium
Low
Country
Max payload to
. 225 300 500 1250 1000 1200 200 1000 315 1000 600 400 300 200
LEO (kg)
Date of the first Late Late 2023-
2017 2018 2021 Q3 2021 Q1 2021 2022 2022 2023 2022* 2025 2024+
flight with payload 2022 2022* 2024*
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Unsuccessful maiden e-
Avio is also developing
L/
One launch
On
launch in May 2020
VO
SpaceRider (0.8t) * Stated but unlikely
failure in 2020
EN
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 14Meanwhile, new spaceports are emerging worldwide to address the demand
of NewSpace players (e.g. small satellites operators and launchers)
Global spaceport operating or planning to launch commercial satellites Mass launched in 2009-2018 Mass launched in 2009-2018
70 t
Spaceports supporting mainly large launchers only
40 t
Spaceports supporting small rockets
10 t Spaceports to launch small rockets by 2025
Other announced spaceports for small rockets
Zoom on the spaceport landscape in Europe
Andøya Launch Centre
Spaceport Sweden
Esrange Space Center
Shetland Space Centre
Space Hub Sutherland
Spaceport 1
• The most active spaceports are in the US, Europe (French Prestwick Airport German Sea Platform
Guiana), Russia and China. Machrihanish Air Base
• New spaceports for small rocket launches are emerging all over Snowdonia Spaceport
the world, and especially in Europe Spaceport Cornwall
• 7 sites in the UK alone are applying for launch licences, and plan
to cover most types of space launch (vertical and horizontal S3 Croatia
launch) Azores Satellite
Launch Base
• Andøya, Esrange spaceports and a few UK spaceports (TBD) are
expected to start operating small rockets by 2025, with the
Guiana Space Taranto-Grottaglie
Nordics and 3 UK spaceports ahead of the race Centre (Kourou) Airport
El Arenosillo Launch Base
Source: SpaceTec Analysis El Hierro Launch Centre
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 15Of the 8 benchmarks analysed, only 1 is fully owned by the private sector
Of the 8 benchmarks analysed, only
1 is fully owned by the private
sector, which is based outside of the
EU.
The other 7 spaceports are all fully
state-owned, with the exception of
Andoya Space Center (however, is
still 90% state-owned)
Source: SpaceTec Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 16Out of the emerging European spaceports the Nordic ones appear to be
ahead of the race, with potential to launch by 2022
Overall Launch Potential anchor Funding
Spaceport Country Target market Regulation Potential first flight
Readiness Type customer sources
2022 (feasible as
construction to start
Sounding Agreements with RFA; and Draft Bill by 2Q21;
Andøya in 2021, public
Norway High Vertical rockets / small potentially Nammo, but Mainly public launch under
Spaceport funding secured,
launchers not mature yet existing reg. risky
additional private
TBD)
N/A.
No customer confirmed
but identifies almost all
European operators as New reg. Delayed; 2022 (feasible as
Sounding
Esrange Space potential customers. might launch under funding secured and
Sweden Medium/ High Vertical rockets / small Public
Centre Interest in US operators existing reg. But planning ready to
launchers
but no TSA yet. unclear how start)
Signed contracts for
engine and stage testing
with ISAR and RFA
Ongoing concession bid >2023 (date hard to
expected to conclude by Public so far, predict until
Azores Sounding Primary legislation in
2020 but no update expected to be concession is
Satellite Portugal Medium Vertical rockets / small place but details to
available. Several Mixed after bid granted and
Launch Base launchers be finalised
European launch concession regulatory hurdles
operators involved. are solved)
Sounding
PLD Space and Deimos
El Arenosillo rockets /
Spain Low Vertical active but none with firm Public No info available >2023/24 (guessed)
Launch Base micro-
plans for domestic launch
launchers
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 17Several spaceports with different characteristics are emerging in the UK,
with SHS, Shetland and Cornwall in a more advanced stage than others
Type of orbital launch facility SHS SHETL CORNW SP1 PREST MACC Preliminary
Vertical Horizontal
500 kg payload to LEO
200 kg payload to
Orbital launch LEO
1st launch in
1st launch 1st launch 1st launch in 1st launch 1st launch
4Q 2023 or
in 2022 in Q1 2022 3Q 2022 in 2023 in >2024
2024
Up to 130 km
high
Up to 10 km
Suborbital launch high
1st launch 1st launch 1st launch 1st launch
in 2021 in 2021 in 2021 in 2021
TBC
Range control as a service
Engine and propulsion testing
Aerospace hub / cluster
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 18To assess the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for satellite launches from
the UK a step-by-step filtering approach has been applied
Filter by operator Filter by orbit Filter by need*
Satellites of Spaceports in the Of the smaller
countries with UK are ideal for satellites, about
closed domestic targeting polar/SSO half need the
markets (e.g. China, orbits. At the same flexible and Total addressable
Global small
Russia), as well as time, satellites dedicated, but market for ≤500kg
satellite (≤500kg)
those belonging to heading for lower more expensive satellite launches
demand forecast in
shareholders with inclination orbits (0- launch services from UK with MLVs
2020-2031
own rockets 50deg) are likely to offered by micro- in 2020-2031
(Amazon/Blue be launched closer launchers. The rest
Origin, to the equator. will rely on
3 forecast scenarios Starlink/SpaceX) are ridesharing or 3 forecast scenarios
not expected to fly piggy-backing
on European/UK launch services.
rockets
Filter by mass
Most MLVs can Total addressable
mainly launch the market for satellite
* Interviews with space stakeholders and some news articles report that the majority of satellite operators (around 50-70%) smaller satellites launches from UK
would still currently prefer to launch on larger rocket than micro-launchers, mainly due to the lower launch costs, higher
reliability, and current lack of offer. With potential higher confidence built into the micro-launcher solutions, it is expected
(≤200 kg). Heavier with MLVs in 2020-
that by 2031 the share of micro-launchers on the total launch demand of small satellites will range between 30% and 70%, satellites will rely 2031
where 70% represents the case in which certain micro-launchers achieve launch prices comparable to those of larger rockets on bigger rockets
and build a robust launch track record. To address this wide variability of results, three forecasting scenarios have been e.g. light lift,
developed, i.e. scenarios where 30%, 50% and 70% of the satellite operators would opt for a micro-launcher over a larger
rocket launch by 2031 whenever there is the choice between the two services. Once again, the medium forecast scenario is
medium lift and 3 forecast scenarios
considered the most likely to take place. heavy lift rockets
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 19Smallsat constellations are the icons of NewSpace, with ca. 150
commercial constellations announced so far, out of which 65 are relevant
ESA’s satellite classes
Other constellations
Class 4 Fleet Space Orbital Micro Systems Earthcube Raphael Astro Digital (Landmapper)
1-25 kg SatRevolution (REC) Sateliot Myriota EROS - IAI NASA Cubesat Initiative
Planet (Flock / Dove) Fleet Space LaserFleet ADASPACE Aistech (DANU, HYDRA)
OroraTech ZeroG Lab (Lingque, Magpie) Lacuna Space HyperCubes Astrocast
PlanetIQ Theia GeoOptics (CICERO) Kineis Kepler Communications
Class 3
26-60 kg
Class 2 Other constellations
61-200 kg Iceye Maxar (WorldView Legion) NorStar GSV-U Zhuhai Orbita (Zhuhai-1)
Xingyun Synspective (StriX) MicroCarb GSV-V Synspective (StriX)
Canon Boeing satellite Earth-i (Vivid-i) CAS100 DigitalGlobe
Class 1
201-500 kg Other constellations
XpressSAR Galaxy Space (Yinhe) UrTheCast Hongyan & Hongyun (CASC)
GW-A59 GW-2
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 20The estimated commercial small satellites Total Addressable Market (TAM)
for micro-launchers launched from the UK is ca. 95 metric tonnes in 2020-31
Forecasted cumulative number of commercial SmallSats addressable to Key figures on the UK’s TAM of
be launched from a UK spaceport in 2020-2031 (medium scenario) commercial SmallSats (≤ 500 kg)
25000
3082 SmallSats (95 t)
Cumulative number of satellites expected
Most of them below 200 kg
20000
(3077 satellites, total mass of 92 t)
to be launched in 2020-2031
Excluding mainly
Starlink and Chinese
Addressable by
constellations
light- to heavy-
15000 lift rockets 631 cumulative launches
(53 annual average)
Excluding
22244 non-polar Excluding satellites
10000 orbits flying on a ride-share
on a bigger rocket $3.8 B cumulative revenues
for micro-launchers
5000 95 t 92 t ($316 M annual average)
3082 3077
$320 M cumulative
0
launch service revenues for spaceports
ial ) le ot on r ble )
c a b s n K g a ble ) ($27 M annual average)
er kg s
s e t its U in e s g a
ss kg
m
m 00 dre ock orb the t fly unch dres 00k re 200
5 d r o a d 5 d
co ≤ a K to m n ll a (≤ d
l a et (≤
tal ts ( not n/U ats fro sats mal tal ket ta
To llSa ats ea S e
all abl all a s To ar To ark
a lS op m s m m m
Sm mal Eur S es
r
S
S by d
ad
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 21TAM scenarios reflecting variations in the success rate of completion and
replenishment of planned constellations
Forecasted cumulative number of launches addressable from a UK spaceport in 2020-2031
(Total commercial ≤ 500 kg satellites to polar orbit)
1500 1323
≤ 200 kg 200-500 kg Total 1220
1000
TAM Scenarios 613 631
500 345 355
103
10 18
0
Low Medium High
Several commercial constellations Some commercial constellations will
Most of the planned constellations
will not be completed or not be completed or replenished.
Scenario description will be completed and replenished
replenished. Most satellite launches Some satellite launches will deviate
according to plan
will deviate from planning. from planning.
TAM of number of UK Cumulative (2020-31) 355 631 1323
micro-launches (up to 500
kg) Average per year 30 53 101
$2.1 B $7.8 B
TAM for a micro-launcher Cumulative (2020-31) $3.8 B
launching from UK (above (-45% vs medium case) (+105% vs medium case)
in revenues)
Average per year $175 M $316 M $650 M
TAM launch services Cumulative (2020-31) $177 M $319 M $662 M
revenues for a UK
spaceport addressing Average per year $15 M $27 M $55 M
micro-launchers
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 22The TAM for institutional SmallSats (military and civil sats) that could be
launched by micro-launchers from UK amounts to 51t in 2020-2031
Forecasted cumulative number of military and civil institutional Key figures on the UK’s TAM of
satellites addressable to be launched from a UK spaceport in 2020-2031 institutional SmallSats (≤ 500 kg)
(medium scenario)
4000
732 SmallSats (51 t)
Cumulative number of satellites expected
3500 Most of them civil (45t civil, 6t military)
Excluding Chinese and Of these, 661 satellites (25t) with a
Russian satellites
mass of less than 200 kg
to be launched in 2020-2031
3000
Excluding
non-polar
2500 orbits 342 cumulative launches
In the medium conservative (28 annual average)
2000 scenario, 80% US institutional of which 170 for ≤200kg sats
satellites not expected to be
(14 annual average)
3397 launched from outside the US.
1500
$2 B cumulative revenues
for micro-launchers
1000 51 t
25 t ($170 M annual average)
UK Skynet and other of which £1 B for ≤200kg sats
500 sats addressable by
medium/high-lift 732 ($85 M annual average)
661
rockets
0 $171 M cumulative
t
ill te
s ble s s no K of
s
ite S ble ) le launch service revenues for spaceports,
e ssa
et it U es g ell U ssa
kg sab g) of which $85 M for the ones addressing
at re ck rb e lit t
k a m re 0 e 0k s
als a dd K ro to o m th atel 500 al s fro add (≤50 ddr ≤20 ≤200kg sats
tio
n
n ot n/U ats fro ge s ss > tion hed tal ket tal a et (
stit
u
a ts pea allS able Lar ma stitu unc To ar To ark
m
S m s a m
al in all Euro S res S in l
t m
S by d U
To ad
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 23TAM scenarios for institutional markets, differing levels of UK capability in
capturing US and the rest of the world demand
Forecasted cumulative number of launches addressable from a UK spaceport in 2020-2031
(Total institutional ≤ 500 kg satellites to polar orbit)
600
≤ 200 kg 200-500 kg Total
425
400 342
TAM Scenarios
172 211 213
200 169 170
86 83
0
Low Medium High
Including 20% of US market and rest Including 50% of US market and 50%
Including US market and rest of the
Military of the world (China and Russia rest of the world (China and Russia
world (China and Russia excluded)
Scenario definition excluded) * excluded)
TAM incl. 5% of US, 50% of RoW, TAM incl. only 20% of US and excl. Global TAM excluding Chinese and
Civil
excl. Chinese and Russian sats Chinese and Russian sats* Russian sats
TAM of number of UK Cumulative (2020-31) 169 342 425
micro-launches (up to 500 30 53 101
kg) Average per year
TAM for a micro-launcher $1 B $2.5 B
Cumulative (2020-31) $2.0 B
launching from UK (above (-50% vs medium case) (+25% vs medium case)
in revenues)
Average per year $84 M $170 M $208 M
TAM launch services Cumulative (2020-31) $84 M $171 M $212 M
revenues for a UK
spaceport addressing Average per year $7 M $14M $18 M
micro-launchers
(*): Considering that not all RoW countries have launch capabilities, they will look to launch from elsewhere. In regard to the US market in particular, considering the
privileged relationship between UK and US, We consider reasonable. Also see the interest of US launchers and emerging players to UK favourable ecosystem. Also note
that there are limited available info about military missions. So military market is likely under estimated.
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 24The estimated TAM for a UK spaceport results in 146t smallsat mass to be
25
launched to polar orbits, equivalent to over 970 launches of small rockets
Forecasted cumulative satellite metric tonnes addressable to be
launched from a UK spaceport in 2020-2031 Key figures on the UK’s TAM of small
(Bringing to a total TAM for micro-launches from the the UK between 50
and over 200 in 10 years (81 annual average in the medium scenario)
Projected number of micro-launches of commercial and institutional small satellites
that can be addressed by a UK spaceport Medium Scenario
250
Low
973 cumulative launches
Medium
200
High
$5.8 B cumulative revenues
150 for micro-launchers
Number of launches
(ca. $480 M annual average)
100
Ca. $490 M cumulative
launch service revenues for
spaceports
50 ($40 M annual average)
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Source: SpaceTec Partners Analysis
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 26Interviews revealed the need for flexible and cost-effective launch
solutions, and the current lack of supply for such services
Rocket Lab is more expensive, but it We' re considering small rockets for their launch flexibility, e.g. if we have a big gap in
launches on time. Price is not the only launch cadence. However, at the moment micro-launchers don't really offer such
point we take into consideration. frequent launches and flexible scheduling. [...] Players like us would use micro-launchers
if they were really responsive, if you could sign a contract and throw within two weeks.
CEO of a NewSpace constellation
CEO of a NewSpace constellation
The price of small rockets is a big issue. We would
only use a micro-launcher if there is a customer I need an injection in the right orbit at a schedule that fits my business at a
who has time priority and is therefore willing to pay cost that I can afford. Not all rockets can inject your satellite batch in the right
the premium, and we would piggy-back. [...] We orbit. The envelope that wrap this all is reliability. A start-up cannot afford a
would like to launch in batches of 6-8 satellites. failure on the launch pad.
CEO of a NewSpace constellation CEO of a NewSpace constellation
When you launch a lot of satellites, everything is well Our plan is to launch all the constellation in nine months. It's possible
regulated. With large rockets, the issue of regulation that we cannot do this with just one company. […] We need rockets
becomes a nightmare. We plan to use dedicated launches. that can bring the satellites 5 by 5. […] We were interested to launch
the constellation for around €30 million in 5 launches.
CEO of a NewSpace constellation
Director of Innovation of a NewSpace constellation
Satellite operators and manufacturers Rocket manufacturers and spaceport operators
Surrey Satellite Technology Iceye Kepler Communications Fleet Rocket Factory Augsburg CNES
Interviewed ISIS Space Inmarsat Axelspace OneWeb Hyimpulse Andoya Space Centre
stakeholders Satellogic - Aleph Kleo Connect NorthStar Space Data Kinéis Ariane Group Southern Launch
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 27This analysis is rather conservative for different reasons
§ The commercial demand forecast is based on a selection of the currently announced small satellite
constellations (e.g. ca. 70 out of the 150 announced, including for example just one mega constellation
instead of 4 anticipated) and assumed likelihood of success/ delay (driving the low, medium and high
forecast), in any case not speculating on potential upcoming/ unknown new ones e.g. stimulated by
more and more affordable satellite manufacturing and launch costs
§ It focuses on small rockets (launchers with a maximum payload capacity lower than 500 kg) and not on
larger rockets who could address the ride-share part of the addressable market or lift heavier payloads
§ It does not consider the longer-term launch demand for hypersonic flights and/or space tourism
§ The analysis of the military demand is based on a projection of the of the existing “known”
international assets , thus does not include the launch of classified satellites
§ In regard to the UK captive institutional demand of launches the current analysis does not include a
detailed analysis of the UK government planning (e.g. associated to the 20th November 2020
government announcement of UK defence space budgets rise, or associated to the UK increased
investment in ESA)
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 28The importance of UK first mover advantage: geopolitical/ strategic vs
market opportunity
Geopolitical/ strategic Market
Performing a first launch from UK before In relation to the market opportunity:
other European countries (i.e. by 2022)
would: § Institutional market: 1st mover advantage is not
critical as the space base choice is driven by national
§ Provide independent access to space (a strategic level agreements (e.g. UK launching US government
asset in the space value chain) missions)
§ Demonstrate the UK’s capability within the space § Spaceports with committed anchor customers: 1st
sector and in doing so: mover advantage is not critical as the customers
– Elevate the UK’s positioning among other choice of spaceport is driven by strategic and business
traditional space fairing countries model drivers and the spaceport’s competitiveness/
viability is determined by the location, number of
– Demonstrate progress in achieving the UK launches secured and its income/cost model
Government’s stated strategy for the sector
– Attract media attention and therefore wider § Excluding the above, 1st mover advantage would be
awareness of UK launch (and wider space) sector critical to secure initial customers (new space
capabilities and potential investment launchers) not yet affiliated/ bonded with other
opportunities spaceports, who are ready to launch by 2022 (based
on our analysis this likely equates to only one or two)
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 29UK is well positioned to be at the forefront of the global small satellite
launch market
Strengths Weaknesses
• Ambitious targets and strategy to increase UK space sector market share by • UK is located on an Island, adding logistical challenges for firms based in
2030. UK became the f4th contributors to ESA after France, Germany and Italy continental Europe (nevertheless this is the case also for other emerging sites
• Solid national space capabilities especially in the small satellite sector and in in Europe)
NewSpace • Lack of EU funding for UK spaceports means that a spaceport is a riskier
• Positive VC environment dedicated to space (e.g. UK based Seraphim Capital) venture, as the burden is solely on a national level
• The UK can adapt its regulations to meet the clients needs quicker as it does • Uncertainty around future EU-UK space sector relationship due to Brexit
not require approval of 26 other countries.
• Only personal jurisdiction is applicable in the UK, lowering the barrier to enter
the market, simplifying the landscape
• The UK and US concluded the TSA to smoothen US participation in space
launches from the UK
Opportunities
UK SWOT Threats
• No EU spaceport consistently launches small satellites, this means UK/ • There is a risk of the EU implementing protectionary measures such as making
Scotland would benefit from the first-mover advantage EU companies must use EU sites
• As a third-party country, the UK is not subject to EU laws and regulations, • Several countries pushing for their own spaceports, meaning there is heavy
meaning that is an attractive option for companies who want to minimise red competition in the market
tape • If all UK spaceports are beat to the race of first to market by European
• Upside potential from an upcoming demand of UK national institutional spaceports, and the EU develops Europe wide regulations, many launch
missions (not specified in the present forecast to date) companies will not see a major benefit in re-registering in the UK
• Opportunity to be the preferred European continent country from American • Nevertheless, realistically (non-UK) new launch companies that would be
players (both institutional and commercial) thanks to the historical link ready to launch by 2022 would probably limit to maximum one or two
between UK and USA government
• Also opportunity to play a pivotal role among the Commonwealth states
Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 30In order to capture a relevant market share of the TAM several actions should be undertaken § Establishment, as soon as possible, of a flexible regulatory framework to allow emerging launch service providers to obtain a UK license - this would help retain gained Launch Service Provider to keep launching from the UK instead of seeking licensing elsewhere (note recent intelligence advises that other European countries are behind UK on this); § Assuring a high level of political and strategic intent to create a national captive market (e.g. buying launching capacity to support academic and research satellite programmes, as well as institutional remote sensing and technology demonstration missions); § Ensuring supportive trade and security agreements with key partners (e.g. USA, key EU Member States, for example Germany and Italy, five allies, NATO partners for military capability); § Balancing technical and market risks across a diversified, yet complementary, project portfolio; § Securing agreements with anchor customers to deliver a robust order pipeline; § Creating a robust innovation eco-system to support the national space sector e.g. strengthen centres of excellence and cluster support, support R&D across the space sector value chain; and, § Attracting and incentivising foreign direct investment within different aspects of the UK sectors value chain § Market_Analysis_Executive_Summary 31
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