Southeast Asia Tech Investment in 2018 - FY 2018 - Cento Ventures
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ABOUT CENTO VENTURES d Cento Ventures is a venture capital firm focused on technology startups Expansion to multiple growth markets building products and services emerging from the digital transformation of Cento Ventures seeks to help our founders build large digital companies that promising growth markets, particularly Southeast Asia. are leaders in their industry or category. In a fragmented region like We are based in Singapore and backed by a team well experienced in Southeast Asia, operating across multiple markets is almost inevitable. We internet business. We operate three funds that invest across industries look for founding teams that share this ambition and focus our support on through a disciplined, well-researched approach to locate technology making their expansion easier. We have a suspicion that great companies investment opportunities originating from the Southeast Asian region. born in one growth market have an opportunity to replicate their success Our investments are guided by these three principles: across many others. Cento Ventures is convinced that the opportunity exists for Southeast Asian Sectors ready for digital transformation entrepreneurs to build transformational digital companies. Learn more about We believe that there is a great opportunity for technology to solve some of us at cento.vc or our Facebook or Linkedin pages. the inefficiencies present in growth markets. However, technology alone does not digitise industries. Most of our investments apply innovative business models to industries that are set in their ways, using technology as an enabler. Early stage, but with proof points Cento Ventures aims to be the first institutional investor in most of our deals. We believe this helps us establish a solid relationship with the founder, and influence the strategic direction of the company. Our investments are most frequently at Series A and we usually lead the round. We maintain a realistic approach to investment and exit valuations, one that is driven by data we gather on venture capital deals in Southeast Asia. 2
INTRODUCTION d Cento Ventures has been tracking data on digital investment activity in Southeast Asia for a - Concentration of capital by country number of years. It is our pleasure to continue sharing the data and insights we accumulated Indonesia accounts for more than 70% of the capital invested in Southeast Asia. However, in our second Southeast Asia tech investment report, covering up to the full year of 2018. the distribution of deals better illustrates activity across the region. By deal count, allocations The headline story of Southeast Asia is the continued growth in technology investment. A to Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam appear to be consistent with the past few record amount of more than $11B was invested during 2018, almost doubling $5.8B invested years. where the Philippines has been cooling off in both investment amount and number of in 2017. This suggests a healthy, and growing interest in the potential for Southeast Asia’s deals since 2016. tech startups. We estimate that this funding amount may be sustained in 2019 as companies - Diversification of capital by sector like Grab, Go-jek, Tokopedia and Traveloka continue to attract capital. We also continue to observe investment into a wider range of sectors. Fintech, real estate, A closer look at the data partly emphasizes the progression of existing trends, but also logistics, and business automation startup investments demonstrate solid growth. Payment & reveals interesting findings emerging in 2018: remittances maintained the level of investment received during 2017. However, some - A few familiar companies capture most investment sectors such as employment have not picked up investor interest despite having produced large exits in the past. 2018 sees a continuation of ‘mega-deals’ as later stage companies capture ever larger investments. Over 70% of funding in 2018 was captured by only 5 investments (Grab, - Series B is gradually growing Lazada, Go-Jek, Tokopedia and Sea Group). The cohort of companies that received seed investment in 2013 does illustrate a significant - A new wave of companies are approaching later stage increase in successful series B funding rate. However, the rates for other cohorts are still relatively low. More time is needed to see how much follow-on funding pipeline in Southeast Although the majority of capital will likely continue to be associated with a few familiar Asia resembles those from more mature funding environments like the United States and names, we also observe a growing cohort of other late stage companies who are raising Europe. larger rounds, putting them closer to the $1B valuation. The amount of investment and number of companies who have successfully raised between $5M – $50M show a consistent growth, while those in the $50M - $200M cohort also grew compared to 2017. Several high- profile deals announced includes PropertyGuru’s $180M, Akulaku’s $100M, Ninja Van’s $87M, Carousell’s $85M and Carro’s $60M round. 4
INTRODUCTION d - Secondary sales and M&A continue to provide liquidity Southeast Asia in 2018 remains a very attractive region for tech investors. We note that while some of the factors we highlighted in last year’s report remain, others are changing. We think Although 2017 saw Sea Group’s NYSE IPO, as well as several local IPOs in Indonesia, 2018 high-quality startups exist beyond a few heavily-invested parts of the region and there has data indicates that trade exits and secondary sales of shares are still the main sources of been some improvement in bridging the funding gaps that remain. Every year that brings liquidity in the region. Exits in the $50M - $100M range are increasing in frequency, with more successful exit stories will help inspire more founders to start companies and attract higher end valuations being in the US$150 - $300M range. more investors to the ASEAN region. The majority of acquirers in 2018 have been technology companies within Southeast Asia For the year ahead, we think Southeast Asia will continue to gain the attention of institutional region. These companies tend to be those who are cash-rich and embark on acquisitions as investors looking for growth markets outside of China and India. Alternative assets such as part of a regional and platform expansion strategy. Some are active acquirers such as Grab, venture and subsets of private equity in Southeast Asia will be the beneficiaries. We also Go-jek and Traveloka; Grab and Go-jek have been consistently acquiring financial services expect to see a trend towards the emergence of value-chain specific funds and fund player while Traveloka started acquiring travel companies regionally. managers. Digitalisation is reaching ever further into numerous industry sectors and At the same time, there are also many are first time acquirers that are earlier in their regional Southeast Asia hosts an increasing portion of many global supply chains. New venture firms expansion phases such as Carro, 99.co, and Dahmakan. Singapore-based acquirers still and vehicles will emerge with clear sector-led investment theses for tech in the fashion contribute the largest number of deals while Chinese acquirers are the largest spenders. industry, agriculture and food, labour, healthcare services, manufacturing, construction tech and so on. - The region continues to attract new acquirers from various traditional sectors Southeast Asia’s tech continues to mature, and we hope this report helps anyone, whether A number of global (Global Yellow Pages, Ringier AG) and local companies (Thai Bev, Rajah they are startup founders, investors, or policymakers, achieve a better understanding of the and Tann, Concepcion Industrial Corporation) made their first acquisitions of Southeast Asia landscape that we all operate within. digital company this year. Though most transactions are relatively small, they still signify the region growing ability to attract new sources of liquidity. Thank you - Declining early stage activities Deals below $500K continue to decline since their peak in 2015. This could partly be Mark Suckling influenced by existing seed investors migration toward later stage investment, and the media’s attention toward later stage mega-deals overwhelming signals from smaller ones. Laphat Tantiphipop Marco Hadisurya 5
OVER $11B INVESTED IN 2018 d Capital invested, $M and deals done, # $9,000 250 The amount of Southeast Asia internet technology related investment continues to set $8,000 214 213 209 a new record in 2018, but the activity 205 197 measured by the number of deals remains $7,000 200 below its 2015 peak. 169 168 The amounts deployed in the second half of $6,000 156 the year is significantly lower than the first half of the year, as a number of major funding rounds were already disclosed during H1 150 $5,000 117 2018. e.g Lazada $2B, Grab’s $2B, Gojek’s $1.5B, and Sea Group $575M round. 97 $4,000 100 $3,000 Notes: 54 The numbers exclude the investment portion $2,000 42 carved out for secondary exits, and include various events that while count as investment 50 $1,000 in technology companies, are considered non- VC, e.g. ICO, project financing, corporate $251 $211 $430 $1,048 $966 $1,113 $1,589 $2,088 $1,284 $4,470 $8,150 $2,970 spin-off. Some early stage incubator-funded $- - 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2 2016 H1 2016 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2018 H1 2018 H2 companies are not yet included in 2018 data Capital Invested # of Deals Source: Cento research 7
$5M+ DEALS CONTINUE TO GROW. < $5M DEALS COOL d $0.5M or smaller deals** $0.5M+ to $2M deals $2M+ to $5M deals 117 59 207 109 110 53 86 43 45 147 126 108 55 85 20 29 13 39 $9 $26 $46 $34 $27 $21 $31 $64 $147 $138 $136 $107 $44 $75 $135 $157 $201 $190 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $5M+ to $10M deals $10M+ to $50M deals $50M+ deals 34 40 31 36 20 26 26 26 13 17 13 8 7 11 6 6 6 2 $40 $111 $132 $218 $232 $270 $126 $223 $610 $673 $829 $948 $212 $980 $1,010 $2,459 $4,330 $9,583 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cento research Capital invested, $M **Various incubator funded early stage companies are yet to be included in 2018 data Deal # 8
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE REMAINS STABLE ACROSS STAGES d Deals done by series, # Average deal size by series, $M $11.5 $11.6 $10.3 14 $9.5 26 21 26 33 109 22 29 146 37 $6.0 100 9 13 108 $4.1 53 $3.5 $3.2 248 $2.9 $3.0 $2.8 $2.5 3 189 6 168 22 122 116 $0.7 57 $0.5 $0.5 $0.6 $0.4 $0.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Pre A A B C+ Pre-A A B Source: Cento research 9
CAPITAL AND DEALS ARE STILL CONCENTRATED d Share of capital invested by country In 2018, Indonesia and Singapore continued to 2018 75% 16% 4% 2% 3% capture the majority of investment activity in 0.8% Southeast Asia. The remainder is split relatively 2017 58% 18% 13% 7% 2% 2% evenly across the rest of the region, with an overall slow down in the Philippines. 2016 67% 15% 6% 6% 3% 2% Capital invested in 2018 is skewed towards 2015 37% 32% 11% 12% 4% 3% Indonesia due to the outsized funding for large domestic companies such as Go-jek and Tokopedia. Singapore maintains its share of 2014 39% 33% 8% 8% 9% 3% capital distribution as a new cohort of later-stage companies such as Ninja Van, Carousell, and Share of deals done by country Carro continues to raise larger rounds. On the share of deals done, this is fairly consistent with 2018 35% 34% 11% 9% 8% 3% the last few years data. 2017 30% 34% 13% 10% 9% 5% Notes: The data excludes Sea Group (Garena), Grab, 2016 29% 31% 12% 11% 8% 9% Lazada and other companies that have a truly regional footprint and are therefore hard to 2015 24% 29% 20% 10% 10% 8% allocate to a particular country. 2014 25% 40% 9% 10% 8% 8% Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Source: Cento research Country of origin is defined as where the company was founded and where it is believed to generate its core revenues 10
VIETNAM ATTRACTING MORE CAPITAL d Capital invested and deals done in Malaysia Capital invested and deals done in Thailand 76 37 37 35 44 23 40 18 31 16 8 12 $18 $31 $111 $108 $304 $148 $4 $28 $125 $98 $166 $77 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capital invested and deals done in Vietnam Capital invested and deals done in Philippines 39 30 29 30 26 22 18 15 14 8 9 9 $20 $35 $44 $58 $49 $127 $10 $10 $30 $38 $36 $33 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cento research Capital invested, $M Deal # 11
FINTECH, REAL ESTATE, B2B SOFTWARE - KEY NEW SECTORS d Deals done by sector, $M Proceed (US$M) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 While online retail (e-commerce and C2C) and local services (on-demand Multi-vertical $0 $53 $270 $770 $2,550 $4,795 services and urban transportation), Retail $71 $182 $230 $934 $937 $1,790 along with ‘multi-vertical’ companies Financial Services $37 $7 $130 $134 $187 $414 (often a mix of the two), remain most Real estate $4 $2 $9 $17 $56 $260 heavily funded categories. Other Business Automation $6 $13 $28 $29 $78 $155 categories gradually attract increasing Logistics $1 $15 $34 $65 $136 $125 attention. Payments and Remittances $19 $26 $85 $113 $100 $116 Local services $9 $376 $441 $827 $46 $97 Financial services have for some time, Travel $34 $12 $78 $176 $387 $51 and are likely to continue attracting Entertainment / Non-Gaming $1 $4 $52 $83 $392 $50 investment. Investment in travel is Advertising & Marketing Technology $8 $22 $117 $24 $79 $29 expected to rebound with the Employment $3 $4 $11 $10 $21 $23 impending Traveloka’s funding in 2019. Healthcare $0 $12 $26 $29 $102 $16 Education $0 $7 $12 $9 $15 $10 Entertainment / Gaming $4 $8 $11 $11 $5 $4 In 2018, we have also seen emerging interest in other categories such as real Others $0 $0 $1 $3 $4 $3 estate, business automation and Comms & communities $4 $23 $16 $48 $0 $0 logistics. Source: Cento research 12
SERIES B REMAINS A CHALLENGE d % of companies raising seed round that raised follow-on rounds 100% We tracked Southeast Asian startups that announced seed funding between 90% 2013 - 2015 and compare the rate of 80% follow-on fundraising with data from the US and Europe where it appears that 70% startups in Southeast Asia have been able to attract Series A funding at a 60% broadly similar rate. We also observed 50% a clear rise in Series B follow-on funding rate for the 2013 cohort, and a 40% gradual increase for 2014 - 2015, compare to the previous year data. 30% 20% Although we believe the follow on funding rates will continue to increase 10% through time, it is still too early to tell 0% how Southeast Asia later stage funding Seed Follow-on Round 1 Follow-on Round 2 Follow-on Round 3 environment compared to those of a SE Asia 2013 SE Asia 2014 SE Asia 2015 US 2008 - 2010 Europe 2010 more mature ecosystem. Source: Cento research https://www.cbinsights.com/research/venture-capital-funnel-2/ http://www.atomico.com/news/the-state-of-european-tech-2016 13
THERE IS A GROWING CROP OF $100M+ COMPANIES SEA beyond recognized leaders: Ø 5 companies with combined value of just under $5B are crossing into ”unicorn” territory in 2018 d Ø ~30 companies with valuations above $100M and combined value of $ 4-5B Regional Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Southeast Asia has produced a dozen ~10 B companies valued above $1B with Bulakapak crossing into “unicorn” territory and Zilingo, PropertyGuru, Carousell ~1+ B 2018 entrants and Qoo10 coming close within 2018 A more comprehensive Akulaku view of the region’s capability to generate shareholder value in Carro digital space is provided by looking at the group of ~100+ M* companies we believe are valued in excess of $100M, based on a recent substantial financing or liquidity M-Daq event and known RupiahPlus business developments. Source: Cento research Publicly-listed company * List of US$ 100M+ companies is not exhaustive 14
OTHER $100M+ COMPANIES PRESENT IN THE REGION Select $100M+ enterprise value businesses executed via prior acquisition / non-third party funded subsidiary d Regional Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Philippines An overview of the value being created in the digital space in Southeast Asian would be incomplete without noting: Search • A significant and growing set of ~100+ M* digital businesses previously acquired by or created within larger companies and continuing to grow around their respective opportunities within Southeast Asia • A number of overseas players - usually from adjacent markets in North Asia - focusing on Southeast Asia as a primary source of growth • A number of Southeast Asia- Select $100M+ enterprise value businesses by global players targeting SE Asian market or by SE Asian based players targeting a global originating companies that build opportunity. their domestic advantage into a significant international footprint Bigo Revolution Razer beyond Southeast Asia Precrafted Publicly-listed company Source: Cento research Source: Cento research * List of US$ 100M+ opportunities is not exhaustive 15
M&A & SECONDARIES PROVIDE MOST LIQUIDITY d Proceeds realized at exit, $M Liquidity events, # Exit valuations, $M $502 $931 1 5 $98 6 3 $327 5 $250 $390 $201 $9 $35 $151 $110 $94 $68 $55 $55 $30 $20 $24 $10 $16 $250 $894 $1,109 $1,081 $2,120 $2,124 28 41 69 55 44 44 $2 $6 $8 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trade Exit + Secondary IPO Trade Exit + Secondary IPO Top decile Top quartile Median Source: Cento research 16
EXITS ARE HAPPENING, BUT STILL RELATIVELY FEW IN NUMBER d Liquidity events and proceeds, $100M 7 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 $70 $162 $189 $160 $265 $173 $67 $239 $220 $163 $170 $254 $- $1,057 $543 $620 $3,397 $1,650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cento research Amount, $M Events, # 17
KEY ACQUIRERS ARE FROM SE ASIA & APAC REGION d Country of origin of acquirer, by deals done, 2013-2018* Country of origin of acquirer, by capital invested, 2013-2018*, $M 2,035 38 26 22 948 12 11 11 577 493 427 7 7 356 6 5 199 192 176 3 2 2 86 61 40 40 37 34 5 SE Asia Countries Others SE Asia Countries Others Source: Cento research *For the top 150 liquidity events 18
d Methodology
METHODOLOGY d Key premises: In this report, we analysed and verified close to 2,500 financing and liquidity events. Inevitably, a few large deals would avoid detection on occasion of exceptionally secretive nature of the transaction or Numbers and conclusions in this study rely upon a company’s reported last round valuation. At best this due to the methodology we apply. It is also our impression that we are likely seeing only half or less of is a partial reflection of a company’s true value. To all in our audience who appreciate the importance of the pre-Series A activity in the region due to a sheer volume of deals in $ 10 - 250K range happening in financing terms over headline valuations, and who recognise that a more complete understanding of any the market – while total dollar value of inflow and outflows is unlikely to be impacted heavily, do take underlying business is helpful, we apologise. To atone for this oversimplification, we’d like to take this our “number of deal” assessments for pre-Series A with a large handful of salt. Finally, as new facts opportunity to give a commendation to the great work being done by a few in academia who probe come to light and as erstwhile announcements are verified, we adjust our databases retroactively, deeply into the contradictory nature of how tech valuations are reported, and produce splendid research leading to mild inconsistencies between various versions at the same period. that will one day help us as an industry upgrade our reporting systems and, perhaps, change how tech company narratives are formed. In this report, our recognition goes to Will Gornall and Ilya A. Category definitions and company profiles include: Strebulaev (professors at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia and the This report aims to describe the state of financing and liquidity generated by companies focused on Stanford Graduate School of Business, respectively) for their comprehensive work on “Squaring Venture digital technology-driven opportunities in Southeast Asia. The exact definition of what a digital Capital Valuations with Reality”, available here: technology-driven opportunity constitutes is a subject of much debate. While leaving biotech, new https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2955455 and with media coverage materials and space tech out is relatively straightforward (but including software and digital services http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/fake-unicorns-are-running-over-the-venture-capital-industry.html enabling these industries), telling an offline company with digital elements apart from a business where value creation is primarily tied to either its technology core or its digital distribution is anything but Geographies covered: simple. This iteration of our report does not make an attempt at covering some of the newer digital ecosystems We have generally taken a view that if something is valued as a technology company, we can trust its within ASEAN beyond the customary six countries, or the developments in counties starting to gravitate investors that it probably is. At the same time, we also endeavour to exclude categories that, while towards SE Asia venture scene such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. adjacent to digital economy, tend to attract non-VC capital to a degree where their financing / liquidation events interfere with the signal from the rest of the ecosystem (notably, excluding the Data sources and completeness : companies with valuations determined by token economics). Furthermore, we currently do not include Our data is compiled from a number of sources, although we primarily rely on public press traditional TV stations, content producers, telcos, IT infrastructures and system integration companies announcements and community disclosures from the companies and their investors. Our team into our reporting. Hence, this excludes a number of otherwise very important names absolutely worth researches the validity of claims to an extent possible and supplements incomplete information with a closer look under different circumstances such as Circles, Life, MyRepublic, Airtrunk, NetTV, One insights from our own industry sources and, on occasion, somewhat educated guesswork. Championship, and others that would occasionally be included in other digital ecosystem reports. 20
METHODOLOGY d Company classification: • Financial Services: companies that apply technology into traditional banking services i.e. lending, wealth management, etc. Country of origin: • Healthcare: provision of goods and services revolving around medical and wellness services Determined by the country in which the company was founded, and has its primary base of operation including, but not limited to, e-pharmacy, medical tourism and telehealth (defined in terms of revenue, if known). At the (subjective) point where the company has both operations in multiple countries in Southeast Asia and substantial revenues generated in multiple • Local Services: platforms that connect local merchants/ service providers to consumers in an urban countries, then it may be classified as Southeast Asia / regional in the country of origin. setting including, but limited to, ride-hailing services, local search and directory and food delivery Sector classification: • Logistics: companies that facilitate the movement of goods including, but not limited to, acquiring, storing and transporting of goods Cento’s definition of the industry segment in which the company’s primary business focus sits. A full taxonomy of sector allocation is listed below. In cases where a company focus on multiple sectors with • Payments and remittances: companies that facilitate movement of capital different units generating thought to generate substantial revenue, then multi-vertical category is used. • Real Estate: construction, buying & selling and management of real estate assets, including the tools We also note that a company’s sector may change as the company progresses; the company’s sector facilitating those activities is evaluated according to the primary business focus during the event of financing. • Retail: companies that sell or rent goods using internet technology, including tools that facilitate those • Advertising & Marketing Technology: companies that facilitate the acquisition of customers including activities e.g. Store-front management software, POS systems, etc. coupons and rebates, price comparisons and affiliate marketing • Travel: tourism and hospitality • Business automation: tools that automates non industry-specific business activities such as CRM, ERP, workplace communication tools, etc. Fund definitions: • Comms & communities: social networks and dating Mapping fund allocations is an inexact science. We count the number of funds that have been observed doing early stage tech investment in Southeast Asia. We also try to assess the allocation of those funds • Education: provision of goods and services revolving teaching and learning, including adult training to the region. In some cases (e.g. Cento Ventures) that is equivalent to 100% of their AUM. In many and education others with a broader, or no particular geographic focus, Southeast Asia allocation is an estimate based • Employment: companies that manage and facilitate the management of employees including on information received from the fund manager, or the relative number of deals that they have done onboarding, benefit, payroll, etc. within the region compared to elsewhere. Besides that, the collected fund information is also compared with third-party data sources such as Pitchbook and Preqin. • Entertainment/ Gaming: gaming development, distribution and publishing Currency: • Entertainment/ Non-gaming: content production and news aggregation $ refers to United States Dollar (US$) unless otherwise stated. 21
METHODOLOGY d Deal definitions: Deal stage: Each series definition is determined as follows: - Pre-Series A: amounts of $10K - $1M. Purpose of investment tends to be building the idea/team; in some cases, the company generates revenue. - Series A: amounts of $1M - $3M. The product has been built and proven via initial but repeatable revenue. Investment purpose tends to be establishing domestic position, and sometimes scaling regionally. - Series B: amounts of $3M-$10M. Investment purpose tends to be building scale, either domestically or regionally. - Series C+: any amount invested later than Series B. Series C, Series D, later series investments, pre-IPO, mezzanine. Deal type: We focus mainly on venture capital deals – investments made by fund entities into early stage startups, whether they are from independent funds of corporate venture capital entities. This is a subset of the total number of early stage tech deals in the region. We separate the following from most of our data, apart from the ‘total capital invested and total deals done’ chart: - Corporate transfers: events where a corporate entity funds an entity in the region in which it owns a majority or significant minority stake (e.g. Rocket Internet, Lippo Group) - Project financing: A deal which was a partnership for an identified purpose – e.g. Grab-Honda. - Non-Southeast Asia deals: e.g. India and China focused companies that happen to use Singapore for their corporate domicile. 22
d Contact www.cento.vc team@cento.vc +65 6816 2810 Office address: 56B Pagoda Street, Singapore 059215 Mailing address: Cento Ventures, 3 Church Street, Level 8, Singapore 049483 23
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