COVID-19 IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE - WEEKLY PWC EXPERT SESSION VIA WEBCAST 29. APRIL 2020, 10:00-11:00 AM - PWC BLOGS
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COVID-19 Impact on Real Estate Weekly PwC Expert Session via WebCast 29. April 2020, 10:00-11:00 am Themen: • Scenarios Real Estate • Banking & Capital Markets • Valuation Update • Legal Update • Tax Update • People & Organisation Update • Q&A Session & Closing Registration via LINK: https://www.pwc-events.com/Covid-19-Impact-Real-Estate Questions to the PwC experts via e-mail to: de_covid19_pwc_real_estate@pwc.com Updates and further informationen on https://blogs.pwc.de/real-estate/ © 2020 PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. "PwC" bezeichnet in diesem Dokument die PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, die eine Mitgliedsgesellschaft der PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL) ist. Jede der Mitgliedsgesellschaften der PwCIL ist eine rechtlich selbstständige Gesellschaft.
Susanne Eickermann-Riepe Partner, PwC Real Estate Leader Germany susanne.eickermann-riepe@pwc.com Sven Hauke Partner, Leader Banking & Capital Markets Germany sven.hauke@pwc.com Dirk Hennig Partner, PwC Real Assets, Germany dirk.hennig@pwc.com Moritz Gröning Local Partner, PwC Real Estate Legal, Germany moritz.groening@pwc.com Sven Behrends Partner, PwC Real Assets, Germany sven.behrends@pwc.com Carmen Meola Senior Manager, PwC Legal, Germany carmen.meola@pwc.com PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 2
Scenarios Real Estate - Capital. Costs. Climate. Resilience & crisis management • Resilience is the new magic word, actually used in psychology, it now stands for resistance or the ability to survive difficult situations without lasting impairment. Therefore the resilience is tested in terms of: – Business models – Asset classes – Financing operations – Market participants – Reviews – etc. • The resilience test is tough. The IFO-Institute expects the German economy to collapse by -6%. • Even if production is slowly being restarted, delayed or Susanne Sven HaukeEickermann-Riepe interrupted supply chains and the necessary protective Partner, Leader PwC Real Banking Estate&Leader CapitalGermany Markets Germany measures continue to cause losses. sven.hauke@pwc.com susanne.eickermann-riepe@pwc.com • Resilience and crisis management must complement each other. PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 3
Further information: https://www.pwc.de/de/covid-19-gemeinsam-durch-die-krise-navigieren/pwc-covid-19-cfo-pulse-dashboard.html PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 4
Scenarios Real Estate - Capital. Costs. Climate. Ratings of asset managers affected by crisis • In its latest rating, Moody's has changed the outlook for global asset managers from stable to negative • Corona-related market distortions burden the income and cash flows of asset managers • Economic uncertainty limits net inflows • Significant decline in assets under management, resulting in reduced performance fee income • Adjustments to cost structure expected in order to conserve liquidity • Slowdown in economic growth and investors' reluctance to invest in higher risk products with higher fees • Real estate asset managers/asset managers can also be affected if transactions and associated fees fail to materialize - scenarios Market participants PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 5
Scenarios Real Estate - Capital. Costs. Climate. Cost pressure can reproduce itself • The resilience of financial institutions is being tested. Emerging and border markets may face difficult conditions for external financing, rising risks and increased debt restructuring • But banks have more capital and liquidity than before the financial crisis, have passed stress tests and are supported by the provision of central bank liquidity - more on this in Deep Dive Banking & Capital Markets • Risk analyses will not stop at real estate loans and conditions may rise • The assessment of the COVID-19 impact on real estate asset classes and their valuation is still cautious - more on this in Deep Dive Valuation • Economic pressure from companies is increasing - necessity of cost savings also affects personnel - more on this in Deep Dive People & Organisation PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 6
Scenarios Real Estate - TEG (Technical Expert Group of the EU Action Plan on Sustainable Finance) recommends the calibration of recovery Capital. Costs. Climate. responses for recovery plans should not support environmentally or socially damaging activities The hunt for the new "green" Action • The environment and other aspects of sustainability are becoming increasingly important for investment managers and their clients and affect all facets of value creation: product design, portfolio structuring, risk management, collaboration with partners. • As recently as 2016, only 10% of AWM's CEOs described themselves as "extremely concerned" that climate change could threaten their company's growth (PwC CEO Survey). The ESG proportion rose to 25% in 2020 and 62% of AWM CEOs expressed some concern about the climate (PwC CEO Survey 2020). They were similarly concerned about income inequality and social instability. • In the current coronavirus pandemic, a PwC survey of CFOs Climate (6th April 2020) shows that 73% of respondents believed that the Change Pandemic outbreak of the virus could have a significant impact on their business. Act early - avoid change by disaster • Pandemics and climate change - as different as both threats Use scope for action may appear at first glance - have the same origin: difficulties in Drive (environmentally) harmful behaviour out of the dealing with biodiversity and the atmosphere. market PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast Distributing rising costs fairly April 2020 PwC 7
The financial sector as the key to stabilising the real economy Liquidity assurance measures by central banks • € 750 billion additional purchase programs (7.3% of eurozone GDP) and refinancing facilities for € 3.5 trillion for up to -0.75%. Regulatory impact and facilitation • Easing of capital requirements with significant reductions in capital requirements. • For the 10 biggest banks in Germany, the adjustment of the capital maintenance buffers means a relief in terms of equity (CET 1) of approximately € 41.1 billion. Sven Hauke Risk provisioning according to IFRS 9 Partner, Leader Banking & Capital Markets Germany sven.hauke@pwc.com • Various pronouncements aimed at a balanced calculation of risk provisions in accordance with IFRS 9. PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 8
Overview of the reactions of the supervisory authorities - Impact of the Corona crisis on the reg. requirements Supervisory authorities Overview of the reactions of the supervisory authorities G20 • HQLA holdings should be used to cover liquidity Guidelines & Standards Financial Stability Board (FSB) needs Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) • Postponement of all outstanding case law evaluations planned in 2020 under the Global level Regulatory Consistency Assessment Program (RCAP). • Banks can make full use of capital and liquidity European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS) buffers, including Pillar 2. • Banks benefit from facilitations in the composition Regulation of capital for the Pillar 2 (P2R) requirements. • The ECB should consider operational flexibility European level when implementing bank-specific supervisory measures. Postponement stress test Supervisory • Deferral of the measures introduced by ECB authorities National authorities supervision and implementation at national level for less important institutions less important institutions important institutes National level PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 9
Liquidity protection measures - ECB extends existing asset purchase programs ECB monetary policy instruments to provide central bank liquidity Purchase programs Open market operations Standing facilities Minimum reserve Pandemic Emergency Purchase Reduction of the qualitative requirements Programs (PEPP) Temporary purchase program in the crisis Corporate Sector Purchase-Programs (CSPP) Additional Credit Claims (ACC) • For private and public sector securities total framework € 750 billion • Purchases until the end of the crisis, at least until the end of 2020 • Includes all asset categories of the previous Asset Purchase Programs (APP) • Public sector purchases in accordance with the countries' capital key at the ECB • Flexible purchases • Restrictions on the purchase of Greek public issues are abolished for PEPP PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 10
Liquidity assurance measures - Significant increase of liquidity in the interbank market and additional refinancing of receivables Program Status Volume (million €) Liquidity from Relevance New Pandemic Emergency Comprehensi Increase of all purchase Purchase Programs (PEPP) 4.000.000 programs Comprehensive ve 3.500.000 Corporate Sector EU Corporate Bonds and Existing Purchase Programs Commercial Paper, also Treasury Portfolio Extended 3.000.000 (CSPP) private placements PEPP 2.500.000 APP Government / Country Public Sector Purchase Existing Bonds, EU Treasury Portoflio Programs (PSPP) Extended 2.000.000 ABSPP Supranationals, Agencies CBPP3 1.500.000 CSPP ABS Purchase Programs Existing 1.000.000 PSPP Securitisations of high Credit, credit card and (ABSPP) Extended quality and transparency leasing portfolios 500.000 Covered bonds of lower Covered Bonds Purchase Existing 0 Credit and investment 2015 - Feb Mrz 2020 - Dez quality, including private Programs No. 3 (CBPP3) Extended portfolio 2020 2020 placements PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast Relevant for real estate financing banks April 2020 PwC 11
Liquidity protection measures - At a glance: key criteria of the individual programs Relevant for real estate financing banks CSPP PSPP ABSPP CBPP3 (Business Sector Acquisition (Purchase Programs for Covered (Public sector purchase programs) (ABS purchase program) Programs) Securities) • Direct (outright) purchases • Bonds from • Diversified pool of granular, • Euro-denominated covered bonds • Euro-denominated bonds − Central governments (currently performing assets • Purchases in the primary and • Investment grade about 90%) • Origination according to sound secondary market, private − Supranational institutions, regional lending guidelines placements • Issues by non-banks governments and certain • Resilient and enforceable • Eligibility for ECB open market • Place of incorporation of the issuer in transaction structure operations institutions (currently about 10%) the euro area • Ensuring national proportional • Originator in good financial health • Issues by banks in the euro area • Implementation by six central banks, representation • Possible interest rate risks are • Custody and settlement in the euro including the Bundesbank • Purchase at negative returns hedged area • Private placements possible generally possible • Documentation of the transaction • Cover pool from private and public is insolvency-proof sector • Structure has a high degree of • ECB Credit Quality Step 3 - to BB transparency ECB hotline for clarification purchasing ability: eligible-assets.hotline@ecb.europa.eu PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 12
Regulatory impact - COVID-19 will place a heavy burden on institutions' capital ratios Challenges for banks Adaptation of regulatory capital requirements • Increased need for analysis with regard to medium and long-term Pillar 2 Recommendation (P2G) Corona buffer 1 - Pillar 2 debt service capacity • Rating migrations lead to significantly increased regulatory The ECB temporarily allows banks to operate below systemic risk the capital level defined in the Pillar 2 guidelines capital charges G-SII O-SII max. ; ; buffer max. (P2G). 1% - 3,5% Max. 2% 1% - 5% • Rating migrations in certain sub-portfolios (e.g. hotel, retail, office property in the development phase) can lead to significant Corona buffer 2 - anticyclical capital buffer charges on risk-weighted assets and thus to adjustments in the min.8% banks' strategic considerations Countercyclical capital buffer 0% - 2.5% Further facilitation is provided by the reduction of the various buffers by the national macroprudential • Safety values and rating downgrades of guarantors can Capital conservation buffer (2.5%) authorities. influence the RWA Pillar 2 requirements (P2R) • Restructurings lead to a loan loss if the change in present T 2 (2,0%) Corona buffer 3 - capital maintenance value is > 1 % buffer AT 1 (1,5%) • Review of valuations (ad hoc or on a standard cycle) Banks are allowed to operate below the capital level defined by the capital maintenance buffer. • New regulatory standards such as Basel IV will further increase CET 1 min. 4,5% the RWA for certain real estate financing PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 13
Risk provisioning in accordance with IFRS 9 in bank accounting - publications by supervisory authorities and standard setters General • The principle orientation of IFRS 9 offers • IDW BFA supports the views of • No amendment, suspension or • Call to use the full flexibility of the sufficient flexibility for an appropriate ESMA adjustment of IFRS 9 regulations representation of the situation • proper exercise of discretionary • Invitation to take account of published • Monitoring of discretionary decisions powers guidance from supervisors • Focus on changes in default risk over • no undifferentiated, automatic step • no mechanistic step transfer process; • Consider the full maturity of the level the entire expected life transfer judgement required financial instrument, the expected determination • Consideration of State measures • Adjustment Procedure required when path of the shock and the long-term (SICR) • Examination of the refutability of a changed circumstances prevail creditworthiness of the debtor significant increase in credit risk in • Focus on expected lifetime view the event of late payment >30 days.. ECL • increased emphasis on long-term • Question macroeconomic scenarios • Consideration of all reasonable and • Demand for a stronger through-the- Determination stable scenarios; no overweighting of and their weighting and adjust them if supportable information cycle perspective Risk provisioning short-term developments necessary (also for SICR). • question macroeconomic scenarios calculation • Check Management Adjustments and their weighting and adjust them if Requirement necessary • Check PMA requirement Default • When granting a concession, assess • Moratoria do not automatically lead to definition/forbea whether there is a significant increase a classification as forborne or defaulted in credit risk or only a temporary and not necessarily to a step transfer rance/level 3 liquidity shortage. PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 14
Risk provisioning in accordance with IFRS 9 -COVID-19 has a significant impact on accounting Risk provisioning Classification • COVID-19 not included in ECL model due to lack of experience - • COVID-19 clauses in new loan agreements (SPPI post model adjustments necessary as expected analysis) • Determination which future-oriented information regarding the • Business model: effects of COVID-19 and government support measures is − no change due to a change of intent regarding certain "reasonable & supportable” financial instruments or the disappearance of a market • Level assignment (transfer to level 2 or 3) − Sales from hold portfolios • Definition of macroeconomic scenarios and weighting − Impact Syndication pipeline • Effectiveness of state support measures Modifications/non-performing exposure Fair Value-Valuation/Hedge Accounting • Contract modifications: Modification vs. retirement • Fair value valuation • (new) relevance POCI assets due to restructuring • Effects on fair value hedge accounting • NPE modules 2 (FinRep 2.9) (e.g. dominance of credit risk) PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 15
What are important elements to consider in communication with your bank? Requirements of real estate financing • Transparency is key – provide up-to-date documents taking into account the expected economic effects (impact on the rating and refinancing options). • If a short and medium-term refinancing is pending, they try to openly discuss the current liquidity protection measures together with the financing bank. • If applications for deferral or modification are submitted, pay attention to the regulatory implications. Sven Hauke • Try to minimise uncertainties regarding the Partner, Leader Banking & Capital Markets Germany completion of current financing projects. sven.hauke@pwc.com PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 16
Valuation Update – Pricing and value determination still difficult Current assessments Crisis winners & losers: • Hospitality and Leisure under pressure! • Residential as big winner? • Safe Harbor Germany? Further analysis: • Uncertainty in non-food retail remains high - what does the new role look like? • Healthcare, Office, Parking – Impact of behavioral Dirk Hennig Thomas Veith Partner,PwC Partner, PwCReal RealEstate Assets, Germany Deals Leader Germany change not yet predictable - What impact on dirk.hennig@pwc.com thomas.veith@pwc.com demand for asset classes? PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 17
First analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the valuation of asset classes ILLUSTRATIVE Real estate: Expected resilience of asset classes - national High Resilience • Social housing • Healthcare • High street shops • Affordable housing • Industrial/warehouse • City center, shopping centers • Central city offices • Private rented residential • Parking • Retail parks • Data centers • Suburban offices • Shopping centres • Student housing • Retirement/assisted living • Serviced apartments • Hotels Low • Logistics facilities • Business parks • Leisure Resilience Positive to neutral impact Slightly negative impact Very negative impact of COVID-19 of COVID-19 of COVID-19 PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 18
First analyses of the impact of the crisis on the real estate markets - a short-term comparison ILLUSTRATIVE S&P Property Index Germany/Europe and North America (comparison of the last 6 months) Germany Europe North America PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 19
First analyses of the impact of the crisis on the real estate markets - long-term consequences? ILLUSTRATIVE S&P Property Index Germany/Europe and North America (comparison of the last 15 years) Germany North America Europe PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 20
The COVID-19 crisis has had a strong negative effect on German commercial real estate companies ILLUSTRATIVE PwC Real Estate Index Germany Commercial/Residential (Long term view) The PwC Real Estate Index for German Residential commercial real estate companies (-25.6%) Commercial fell twice as much as the index for residential property companies (-12.6%) due to the current COVID 19 crisis. Further information on the current PwC Real Estate Monitor: https://www.pwc.de/en/real-estate/real-estate-monitor.html PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 21
Update Legal – 6 weeks COVID-19 crisis Laws, courts & rent covers • Extensive legislative packages implemented at the end of March • Covid-19-Mitigation Act • Social protection package / short-time work allowance • Supplementary Budget / WSF-Law („Bazooka“) • Parts in implementation or planning • WSF-law – still subject to EU approval • Legislation on the Law on Event Contract • Closure regulations at federal state level • Some harmonisation after initial solo efforts • But: Inconsistent standards on opening • Legislation on closure orders Moritz Gröning Thomas Veith • VG Hamburg f. 21./22.04.2020 – Sport Scheck Thomas Partner, PwCVeith Local Partner, PwC Real Real Deals Estate EstateLeader Legal, Germany Moritz Partner, Gröning PwC Real Estate Deals Leader Germany • OVG Schleswig-Holstein f. 24.04.2020 - Outlet moritz.groening@pwc.com thomas.veith@pwc.com Director, PwC Legal thomas.veith@pwc.com Corporate/M&A • VGH Bayern f. 27.04.2020 – Department store moritz.groening@pwc.com • Berlin rent covers - business as usual despite Corona? PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 22
Update Tax – further simplifications Implementation in Germany • Immediate measures of the Federal Government and the federal states for the current year 2020 : − Particularly deferral, − adjustment of advance payments, − Suspension of enforcement measures − for taxable persons who can be shown to be directly and significantly affected Sven Behrends NEW: Lump-sum reduction of advance payments Partner, PwC Real Assets, Germany from 2019 sven.behrends@pwc.com PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 23
Tax law update Lump-sum loss provision for the 2019 assessment period BMF - Letter of 24 April 2020 "Corona emergency measure” 2019 2020 2021 Investment Advance Losses from a.p. 2020 and payment (profits) Covid19 loss carryback a.p. 2019 Affected by Covid19 Example: Profit 100; lump-sum Application for a lump-sum loss Deferral of the potential loss carryback 15, refund of carryback (15% of the profit from subsequent payment from the the corresponding income tax VZ 2019) 2019 tax credit; adjustment in in 2020 Entitlement to reimbursement for the 2020 tax assessment payments made under 2019 PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 24
People & Organisation Update Labour law, social security law Update • Government support measure - short-time work allowance has started • Possibilities of cost coverage • Management of lawsuits/deadlines • Activity in the home office established as a new working mode in many companies Next COVID-19 P&O Webcast, CarmenVeith Meola Thomas 7. Mai and 18. Mai 2020 Thomas Senior Partner, Veith Manager, PwC RealPwC Legal, Estate DealsGermany Leader Germany Sven Partner,Behrends PwC Real Estate Deals Leader Germany carmen.meola@pwc.com thomas.veith@pwc.com https://www.pwc-events.com/coronavirus Partner, PwC Real thomas.veith@pwc.comAssets, Germany sven.behrends@pwc.com PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 25
Catalogue of measures for employers: support in case of financial shortages and to make work more flexible Immediately Short-term Medium-term Long-term • Quarantine • overtime / holiday reduction • Short-time work • Staff reductions • Home Office • Reduction of salary, bonuses • Partial closure of the company • Terminations • Conversion of remuneration • Exemptions • Reconciliation of interests, • (Partial) business closure Salary against vacation • Termination of employment social plan transfer company • Calculation of HR costs Measures • Continued payment (in case of contract/temporary work • Dismissals for operational • Use Insolvency law illness) • Indication work loss BA reasons • Insolvency money • Child Sickness Benefit (SGB V) • Application for short-time work • Termination agreements • Liquidity review • Sickness benefit (from 6. week) allowance • Partial retirement contracts • Tax deferral/deduction Advance • Short-time work payments • Reimbursement of continued • Transfer short-time work • Liquidity/financing audit remuneration, allowance • Bridge finance/ KfW subsidies/ Grants • Compensation according to • Short-time work allowance • Unemployment benefit guarantees/ insolvency InfSchG • Insolvency money compensation/ deferral Social Security & Business Recovery, Services, Social Security & Topics Social Security Labour Law Labour Law & Labour Law, Social Security Business Recovery & Corp. Tax PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 26
Your questions to the PwC experts Susanne Eickermann-Riepe Partner, PwC Real Estate Leader Germany susanne.eickermann-riepe@pwc.com Sven Hauke Partner, Leader Banking & Capital Markets Germany sven.hauke@pwc.com Scenarios Dirk Hennig Partner, PwC Real Assets, Germany Impact on Financing dirk.hennig@pwc.com . Moritz Gröning Local Partner, PwC Real Estate Legal, Germany Update Legal moritz.groening@pwc.com Sven Behrends Partner, PwC Real Assets, Germany Update Tax sven.behrends@pwc.com Carmen Meola Senior Manager, PwC Legal, Germany Update People & Organisation carmen.meola@pwc.com PwC Real Estate | COVID-19 WebCast April 2020 PwC 27
PwC information on COVID-19 and its impact on the real estate industry can be found here: Current information about Real Estate and also PwC Plus - All the information about real assets COVID-19 with push message function https://blogs.pwc.de/real-estate/ https://pwcplus.de/ Central email address for questions to PwC experts Weekly expert session via WebCast on current on de_covid19_pwc_real_estate@pwc.com topics always Wednesday 10:00 to 11:00 PwC Real Estate | WebCast COVID-19 22. April 2020 PwC 28
PwC COVID-19 Services Operations Liquidity/Financing • Management of the tenant and service • Monitoring the liquidity status portfolio • Review of the loan portfolio • Support in daily business • Support review grants and loan options • Crisis Management • Dealing with tax deferrals Scenario Analysis Strategic Impact PwC E-Mail • Development of scenarios for dealing • Expansion of IT systems & digitization COVID-19 Expert Contact: with the COVID-19 crisis • Further development of the value chain, • Changes in the business model to business model & assets de_covid19_pwc_real_estate@pwc.com ensure sustainable cash flows • ESG implementation • Experienced, interdisciplinary team (Legal, Tax, Operations, Financials) PwC COVID-19 • Pragmatic and efficient project approach Real Estate Taskforce • Possibility of short-term support and 'Ready-to-Go' support with a proven IT communication platform PwC Real Estate | WebCast COVID-19 22. April 2020 PwC 29
COVID-19 Impact on Real Estate Weekly PwC Expert Session via WebCast 6th May 2020 from 10:00-11:00 am Registration via Link or via E-Mail: https:/www.pwc-events.com/Covid-19-Impact-Real-Estate
pwc.de © 2020 PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. "PwC" bezeichnet in diesem Dokument die PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, die eine Mitgliedsgesellschaft der PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL) ist. Jede der Mitgliedsgesellschaften der PwCIL ist eine rechtlich selbstständige Gesellschaft.
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