Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Scenarios for
Sustainable Lifestyles
2050:
From Global Champions to Local Loops
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
D4.1 Future Scenarios for New European Social Models with Visualisations Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
About SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 Contents
Report Principal Authors: Juha Leppänen (Demos Helsinki), Aleksi Neuvonen
Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 What is SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 3
(Demos Helsinki), Maria Ritola (Demos Helsinki), Inka Ahola (Demos Helsinki),
Sini Hirvonen (Demos Helsinki), Mika Hyötyläinen (Demos Helsinki), Tuuli Unsustainable lifestyle impacts to be overcome
Funding Scheme Kaskinen (Demos Helsinki), Tommi Kauppinen (Demos Helsinki), Outi Kuittinen by 2050: Key findings of the project’s
(Demos Helsinki), Kaisa Kärki (Demos Helsinki), Michael Lettenmeier (Demos
Helsinki/D-mat), Roope Mokka (Demos Helsinki) baseline research 4
With inputs from the project consortium and project advisors
Our scenarios on sustainable lifestyles 6
Report Visualisation: Francois Jegou (Strategic Design Scenarios / Politec-
nico di Milano), Adèle Seyrig (Strategic Design Scenarios), Marta Corubolo The backcasting method 7
(Politecnico di Milano), Anna Meroni (Politecnico di Milano), Christophe The sustainable lifestyle = 8000 kg per annum 8
Gouache (Strategic Design Scenarios)
Project Coordinator Four scenarios, two critical uncertainties 10
Report Layout: Kirmo Kivelä (Demos Helsinki)
How did we get here? 12
Project Coordinator:
UNEP/Wuppertal Institute Collaborating
Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP) Four scenarios to sustainable lifestyles 2012–2050
Hagenauer Straße 30. 42107 Wuppertal. Germany Singular Super Champions 15
Tel + 49 . 202 . 45 95 8 - 17
Fax + 49 . 202 . 45 95 8 - 30
Governing the Commons 25
Project Consortium
www.scp-centre.org Local Loops 35
Cheryl Hicks, Project Director: cheryl.hicks@scp-centre.org Empathetic Communities 45
Nora Brüggemann, Project Manager: nora.brueggemann@scp-centre.org
Project Consortium: Comparing four alternative scenarios
Ashoka, Belgium and France
on sustainable lifestyles
Demos Helsinki (Demos), Finland
Ecoinstitut Barcelona (ECOI), Spain Matrix on lifestyle differences in
Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) the four scenarios 56
EuroHealthNet
Politecnico di Milano (Polimi), Italy How did the SPREAD scenarios reach
Regional Environmental Center for CEE countries (REC), Hungary lifestyles of 8000 kg material footprint? 58
The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund
University (ULUND), Sweden
The Northern Alliance for Sustainability (ANPED), Belgium Appendix A: SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles
2050 Delphi survey Questionnaires 60
EC Desk Officer:
Perla Srour-Gandon, Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero Appendix B: SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles
Duration: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 62
Funding scheme: European Commission’s Seventh Framework
References 63
Programme (Coordination and Support Action):
Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Budget: EU contribution 1,423,082 €
Website: www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Online community: www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community
2 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
What is SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 is a Euro- able lifestyles in 2050. This process will result in In recent years, we have witnessed the emer-
pean social platform project running from Janu- a roadmap for strategic action that will identify gence of more sustainable products, services
ary 2011 to December 2012. Different societal opportunity spaces for policy, business, re- and experimental bottom-up initiatives. They
stakeholders – from business, research, policy search and civil society to take action to enable have signaled new hope that more sustainable
and civil society – have been invited to partici- more sustainable lifestyles across Europe. ways of living are achievable for all, while cel-
pate in the development of a vision for sustain- ebrating diversity, in post-industrial societies.
Despite these developments, existing promising
sustainable living practices are not enough. They
remain dwarfed by the unsustainable impacts of
How to spread sustainable lifestyles? the average European’s current lifestyles.
To overcome the current challenges of our un-
Societal values, sustainable lifestyles, the SPREAD project has
overall paradigms,
Landscape level megatrends developed future scenarios of possible societies
that support more sustainable ways of living.
Markets, Markets,
Science, Science,
Regime level Policies Markets, Policies
Science,
Policies
Society
CLEAN MONEY
Embedding Up scaling
Andrea, 37-year-old, father of the 3 children family
“…taxes on personal income rose like mad to cover droughts
here and tsunamis there and catastrophes after silly
urbanization projects in mega-cities: now I prefer to earn less,
with green and fair investments but I want to know what my
money is used for and I want to be able to judge myself if the
projects financed will be good or not for the future of my kids…”
How does it work? Comments
• huge costs induced by bad sustainable management and
catastrophe related increases induce people to pay more and more
attention to what is done with their money;
• after many financial crises due to lack of investment regulations,
Moving
transparency is the norm that also benefits sustainable projects;
HIGH-RISE VILLAGES
• sustainable responsibility, ethical wealth and fair banking criteria
is the norm on the financial market; investments are made only for
sustainable proposals.
Multiplying
Consuming
Misaku, 31, physician
“…I am living in a high-rise village in the forest: it looks a bit like
you’ve taken some blocks of Manhattan and settled them deep
URBAN FOOD
in the forest in Cornwall. At the beginning I did into believe that
this ‘zero density’ breathing zones planning would be respected.
DISTRICT PLANNING
Now I have the offer of a real city in terms of work opportunities Martha, 36, mother of a 3 children family
and cultural life at a walking distance and surrounded by real Society
“…we have the chance to live in a city where the municipality
woods or wheat fields. And I take the speed train if really I have
HOME HOSPITAL
has decided to introduce the food district planning initiative.
to go to the next high-rise village...” Our food mix must be at least nearly 50% locally produced
and 10% self-produced among neighbours: garlic is growing
How does it work? Comments on the balcony, cucumbers downstairs, tomatoes come from
• densification of cities and new urbanization models limit mega cities neighbours’ vegetable gardens, commuters bring fresh dairy
and urban sprawl; products from suburban areas into downtown. I still go to local
Gianna, 68-year-old, suburban inhabitant, retired
• promotion of medium size dense urban environments with dense supermarkets, once in a while I may buy some imported food…”
Niche level
public transport systems infrastructure inside the city and high- “...going to hospital nowadays mostly means staying at home!
speed train connections between cities; But at home I can meet the doctor on line and get the support of
How does it work?
• urban planning standards based on succession of high density Consuming the neighborhood social care network.. I can be supported also
lodging and zero density green/leisure areas; • the mix of food production has changed: domestic production, Comments
by a series of remote health measure devices, self-medication
W.P.F.S. WISE PERSONAL
• new architecture movements following ideas like ‘down town in the Society condominium urban farming areas, neighborhood, peri-urban and
appliances temporarily rented from the local health care center,
forest’ or ‘the high-rise/urban agriculture mix’... national production and some international importation
• changing the relationship between parks and green areas within
urban planning as a pattern made of high-rise blocks and forests FOOD SHOPPER
and get advice from former patients from the neighborhood...”
CLEAN MONEY • it is called urban food district planning. The city is now divided into
food districts that must be as self-sufficient as possible. Each food
blocks. Moving district relies for a certain quota on self production of food and for
Society the rest on local farms and producers. Living
Elisa, 58-year-old, citizen How does it work?
Comments
ID-DNA CARD LUXURY TAXI SERVICE • urban neighborhoods are twinned with peri-urban farms and food-
“...I have just recovered from surgery and with the mix of drugs
for after treatment I can only eat certain kinds of food... The
• going to public/private hospital is getting more and more expensive
and also carries the risk of contracting diseases when staying in
Andrea, 37-year-old, father of the 3 children family
“…taxes on personal income rose like mad to cover droughts
hubs so that food production and consumption are related, mutual
commitment and mutual responsibility. REMOTE
• a well connected food supply chain is necessary, which can help
CO-WORKING SPACES
hospital lease me a Wise Personal Food Shopper set to my hospital;
• for non-emergencies, home hospital is the norm: staying at home here and tsunamis there and catastrophes after silly consumers get the closest resources and switch with a certain
exact diet and it’s a relief when doing my shopping. I feel safe
Moving and supported by a series of remote health measure devices, rented urbanization projects in mega-cities: now I prefer to earn less, flexibility;
for observing my diet and with combined recipes suggested, Cinthia, 45, prêt a porter stylist
self-medication appliances and neighborhood social care networks; Paolo, 9, primary school student with green and fair investments but I want to know what my
cooking lessons and information on food origins it’s also much Wang Yong, 24, agent in a call center
URBAN MOBILITY OF easier to achieve a sustainable diet. I think I will use it also after
the end of the therapy as a guide in my daily life…”
• health care providers provide ongoing medical support at home and
remote treatment with appropriate technology;
“...My mum says that when I was born, just before going home
from the hospital, she received my personal ID_DNA card. It is
“..I love my work and I love to have and give all the best I can.
I’m used to reaching clients and I love to be efficient and to
money is used for and I want to be able to judge myself if the
projects financed will be good or not for the future of my kids…” “...where am I going to work today? It’s a question I ask myself
• ‘eHealth’ helps to increase public medical knowledge and Living
GOODS
spend with customers all the time needed to get in tune and in nearly every morning: we have plenty of co-working options at
participation in treatment also reducing health costs; a very special Id card: it contains all the history of my family
order to establish a pleasant relationship. That’s why I usually a walking distance in the area. I used to go to some of the work-
How does it work? Comments
• especially chronic patients and elderly people can stay at home for
longer.
and it will contain also my history. So when I will need some
medicines, the doctors will already know everything and they LIFE-LONG move around the city by the Luxury taxi service, it is brilliant! Consuming cafés when I started my first job: a messy environment, lots of
My provider offers the service included in the business mobile people to meet! Now I prefer to cycle tol the park to change
Tanja, 29, single mother of two children
“…normally get our weekly veggie box delivered to our home,
• the Wise Personal Food Shopper system can analyze user’s genetic
data and fit a healthy diet to his/her food choices;
will build a special therapy just for me...”
SUSTAINABILITY LEARNING account: automatic supercars without drivers bring you
everywhere according to personalized paths that you can plan
How does it work?
• huge costs induced by bad sustainable management and
Comments
FOOD FACILITY atmosphere or stay on the first floor of the condominium where
my old mum lives 2 blocks away...”
I just take a little trolley from the corner station and take it • the system can be accessed from any portable device in every food
retail place and restaurant; Arold, 44 years old, primary school coach and redefine along the way…” catastrophe related increases induce people to pay more and more
back to the station just below the house; but today, given all attention to what is done with their money;
• the device displays properties of food the user would like to eat or “...kids no longer rely only on schools for their education:
the shopping for the party, we need at least a cargo-trolley, the purchase; includes it in the diet balance; shows quantity needed/ How does it work? Comments • after many financial crises due to lack of investment regulations,
How does it work? Comments the layer of IT embedded in our daily life is providing a very
same as we used to move grandma from her former flat to the allowed; • automatic cars without driver; transparency is the norm that also benefits sustainable projects; How does it work? Comments
• personalisation of medicines is nowadays a standard practice; responsive and diffused didactic environment for them and • sustainable responsibility, ethical wealth and fair banking criteria Eduardo, 41, designer, single parent with a daughter
room near where we live now…” • it helps to make smart and right purchase choices, to raise individual • dedicated online and mobile application for fully personalized path; • jobs are designed as far as possible to allow remote working and
• everybody has a personal ID_DNA card that contains: their genetic sustainability issues are present everywhere in the day-to-day is the norm on the financial market; investments are made only for “...tortillas are the only food I’m really quite good at and,
awareness of responsible diet, consume less high-calorie food, more • market-based service: partnership between telecommunications reduce commuting in cities;
local food, organic food… and enhance sustainable lifestyles…
map and biological data, but also their daily diet, their habits, their environment, from the energy smart meter display at home to companies, private taxis and local transport companies sustainable proposals. luckily, they are quite versatile. Today I have prepared stewed
sporting aptitude and the history of their family; • neighbourhoods are equipped with different types of distant
the water harvesting control system in the neighborhood, from vegetables as filling and …voilà.. a perfect dish!.. Philip
• every doctor or specialist has access to it in order to get a complete working facilities;
the intermodal mobility organizer to the distributed air quality prepared the salad, and Maria the dessert. A full dinner is finally • socialization is a mix of local and remote connections with distant
How does it work? Comments overview of the patient’ life; control scheme...Everything works for them just like a reward-
• the card enables full personalisation of medicines and healing ready for me and my little Jody: I just need to pick it up from the working partners and neighbours employed by different companies;
• urban planning towards less car accessible neighborhoods, mixed based game to play.” food facility and lay the table.” • where you work is more and more perceived as completely detached
Promising
solutions, combining pharmaceutical and social remedies.
living and commercial zones enabling more walking and cycling; from who you work for;
• development of renting schemes for different sized trolleys for How does it work? Comments • people enjoy changing social/physical environments especially for
the transportation of goods by pedestrians, from simple weekly boring tasks.
• striving to steer general behaviour towards sustainable lifestyles
shopping to second hand furniture exchange or moving home at constitutes a diffused dynamic context providing learning
Consuming
walking distance; opportunities at any moment in daily living; How does it work? Comments
• parking stations, where trolleys can be rented for transport and
THE MEAT FEAST • the system works by rewarding good behaviour Society • collective kitchens open to food-group members are diffused all
returned, are available in all superblocks in the city. • pervasive IT in products and augmented environments provides around the city. Food facilities are in fact services that allow people
feedback to stimulate sustainable living, which plays as a teaching
HOME HOSPITAL to save time in preparing food while increasing the quality of food
Promising
environment that changes according to age and situation; prepared;
• distance learning, using more traditional forms of education, enables Moving • every food facility gathers a food group that agrees on a weekly food
Society still open questions to be answered and integrates all the knowledge scheme: each member is in charge of preparing a specific course of a Living
Lily, 10 year old, primary school girl, describing Sunday meat in the student portfolio;
MULTI-SITS PEDAL meal, and cooks it for all the members. In return he/she receives the
practice
feast at grandma’s place SELF EMPOWERMENT • this learning process starts with primary education and goes on for
life. Gianna, 68-year-old, suburban inhabitant, retired
portions of the other courses prepared by the other members.
ACTIVE FARMING CLASSES
“…all the family gathers together in grandma’s house on
CIRCLES VEHICLES “...going to hospital nowadays mostly means staying at home!
But at home I can meet the doctor on line and get the support of
Sunday morning, to celebrate the meat feast. Grandma cooks
some traditional meat dishes that I don’t eat so often... Usually the neighborhood social care network.. I can be supported also
Fabio, 5 years old, disabled child Ivan, 15-year-old, middle school student
at home we do not eat meat and at school we have a green- Li, 25 by a series of remote health measure devices, self-medication
“…I hurt myself playing and I have my leg in plaster. Every “…In our school there is a vegetable garden where I’ve
appliances temporarily rented from the local health care center,
Promising
vegetable canteen... It is good to enjoy some meat once in a “I moved yesterday, everything seems fresh to me, sadly again, been attending farming class since primary school, and I’ve
while. I’ll try not to eat too much today...” morning, when I go to school with my school-mates they ride and get advice from former patients from the neighborhood...”
my desk lamp was broken this morning, I should change the
practice
Living the pedal vehicle as usual producing a lot of energy, while I’m always done very well. I know lots of local crops and farming
light bulb immediately, come on, I still have commitments to knowledge. The teachers teach us how to plant and harvest, we
sitting in the seats without pedals near Miss Marple, the old
How does it work? Comments
fulfill before tomorrow. Where can I buy a bulb nearby? I joined
the community network when I moved here. Maybe I can ask for SUSTAINABLE neighbour with that strange smell…I’m looking forward to have regular farming work in the vegetable garden, and our
generation feels therefore perfectly comfortable with taking
going riding!... ” How does it work?
• meat once a week in a vegetarian diet is the norm;
• the weekly meat feast, Sunday is the celebration day for meat, feasts
help there …”
COMPANIONSHIP • going to public/private hospital is getting more and more expensive
Comments part in urban farming to produce on the spot part of the fruits
and veggies we consume...”
are organized at home; and also carries the risk of contracting diseases when staying in
• meat is getting more expensive, so it is actually a pleasure and luxury hospital;
that can be afforded only once a week; Jenny, 9 year old, primary school pupil • for non-emergencies, home hospital is the norm: staying at home
• a low-animal protein diet has been promoted by both governments “...The curriculum for sustainable education in our school is How does it work? Comments and supported by a series of remote health measure devices, rented
How does it work? Comments
and social communities due to food crisis, economic reasons and based on 25 micro-internships per year consisting in day or half- • multi-sits pedal-powered school bus and transport services with self-medication appliances and neighborhood social care networks; How does it work? Comments
practice
• find help from those around you: who is where and available to do • health care providers provide ongoing medical support at home and
necessary shift to more sustainable food consumption. day trips to organic farms, re-design and recycling companies, different seats and rates for the neighborhood; • sustainable active education goes through the normal education
what; remote treatment with appropriate technology;
new traditional craftsman workshops, wild life protection • clean energy production for transportation; circle, activity based learning projects have become part of the
• local bounds are strengthened by means of communication tools, • ‘eHealth’ helps to increase public medical knowledge and
projects, humanitarian programs... where we get in touch and • eco-minded school bus and educational aspect of the service formal education method;
intelligent sensors and geo-localization devices; participation in treatment also reducing health costs;
(strengthening awareness). • •farming classes and other basic knowledge around sustainable food
• activate instant support and close help in case of need; learn the basics about growing food, providing goods and • especially chronic patients and elderly people can stay at home for
• district personal networks are established. service, self-production, nature preservation…” are mandatory at every education level to prepare aware citizens able
longer. to take part actively in co-production of the food they will eat;
• the classroom is no longer the only place to learn. School campuses
are developed with farming, food transformation and preparation
How does it work? Comments facilities;
2
• school canteens are supplied with vegetables cultivated in the
• sustainability education is embedded in daily living in the form of
ls 2 00
garden.
active education, project based learning...;
• friendly periods spent in contact with the real world form the basis of
‘learning for life’ education;
• ‘learning for life’, meaning acquiring basic knowledge on natural
cycles, bio-diversity, regeneration processes, self-production...
takes place on the field, in contact with communities, families,
Ge e
professionals...;
• many public and private institutions dealing with sustainable issues
provide basic education on top of their main activities.
Based on
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops |3
Unsustainable lifestyle impacts The SPREAD project’s journey to future sce-
narios for more sustainable lifestyles began by
taking stock of existing knowledge on sustain-
to be overcome by 2050: able lifestyles. Through this initial research we
identified the challenges and barriers to more
Key findings of the project’s
sustainable living today, as well as promising
trends, drivers and opportunities to encourage
more sustainable ways of living in the future.
baseline research
The results of this baseline research can be
found in our project report, “Sustainable Life-
styles: Today’s Facts and Tomorrow’s Trends”.
Modern European lifestyles are unsustainable.
They have become associated with overproduc-
tion and overconsumption. The impacts of our
lifestyles are putting too much pressure on our
natural resources and have adverse environmen-
tal, economic, social and health effects.
The report reveals that lifestyle and household
consumption form a significant part of society’s
environmental burden as a whole. In recent
years, sustainable lifestyle choices have started
to become a more relevant and accessible op-
tion for some European consumers thanks to a
rise in localised social innovation experiments,
the improved supply of eco-efficient goods and
services, and increased coverage of sustainabil-
ity issues in the media raising awareness in the
public debate. We call these signals of progress,
4 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
“promising practices” of more sustainable living • Food and drink, private transport and hous-
Moving
practices, and they form a good foundation for ing together account for 70-80% of Europe’s
exploring the future of sustainable lifestyles. environmental impacts stemming from final
consumption (Tukker, A., G. Huppes, et al.
SPREADing sustainable lifestyles in the future will (2006)).
require, on the one hand, a deeper understanding
of how to scale up current promising practices. • Meat and dairy consumption alone account
On the other, we need to know how far these for almost one quarter (24%) of all final con-
practices will take us towards sustainable living sumption impacts – by far the largest share
Living
for all, and what kinds of new creative solutions, in the food and drink sector (Weidema et al.
currently unknown or “unthinkable”, might get us 2008).
there.
• Domestic heating, water consumption, appli-
Our research suggests that in order to make ance and electronics use accounts for 40%
progress in these areas, that focus should be of Europe’s total energy consumption (with
Consuming
placed on strategies to assist, motivate and heating alone accounting for 67% of house-
inspire behavioural change, as well as the role hold energy consumption in the EU-27) (EEA
of infrastructure and enabling sustainable living 2010).
environments.
• Car ownership in the EU-27 increased by
The scenarios for sustainable lifestyles 2050 more than one third (35%) in the period
present four different prototypes of possible between 1990 and 2007 (EEA 2010) and EU
future societies that all support more sustainable drivers currently own one third of the world’s
lifestyles. Our lifestyle scenarios are based on the 750 million cars (IEA 2010).
foundations of sustainable systems, and explore
different options in an attempt to acknowledge • In the EU-27, approximately 60% of adults
Society
the diversity among European citizens. and over 20% of school-age children are
overweight or obese. Coronary heart diseases
The critical impacts of current European (CHD) often associated with fatty foods and
lifestyles are: smoking, remain the single most common
cause of death in the EU (WHO 2011).
Reference: For more information, please read the full SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 baseline report, available to download from www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu.
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops |5
Our scenarios on sustainable lifestyles
The SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 pro- identify system boundaries such as, geopolitics, 1. Our scenarios aim to demonstrate how
ject uses a scenario methodology to explore national politics, or technology related to each various situational and behavioural factors
the diverse ways for potential lifestyle patterns future scenario. It is clear that these factors have contribute to the development of sustainable
to evolve, and how this evolution can overcome immense direct and indirect influence on life- lifestyles. Scenarios form a powerful tool for
current harmful environmental and social life- styles. However, here they are dealt with only to translating how megatrends, such as climate
style impacts. Our sustainable lifestyle scenarios the extent that they directly explain changes in change, rapid technological advancements,
are stories of possible futures where societies lifestyle patterns. and changing demographic patterns could
support more sustainable ways of living. The change our everyday lives and the decisions
scenarios present different options for sustaina- We have chosen a specific scenario methodol- we make concerning how we live, move and
ble living choices that will suit the diverse needs, ogy to explore different options for new European consume in the future.
desires and cultural considerations of citizens social models that encourage sustainable life-
from across Europe. The four scenarios present styles in 2050. We further outline our methodol- 2. Our scenarios enable us to analyse the
differing pathways to reach alternative societies ogy here: potential of current promising sustainable liv-
where sustainable ways of living are supported. ing practice in relation to the various factors
Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts but
instead seek to explore the most extreme pos-
sibilities, in order to help decision-makers plan for Situational and behavioural factors influencing human behaviour
the currently “unthinkable”. In order to develop
stories of the future, we first identified the most Experience
Source: Defra, Sustainable Lifestyles Framework, 2011.
critical variables – the critical drivers necessary
Culture Attitudes
to create sustainable lifestyles. Some of the Environmental
Norms
elements of our scenario stories might sound Infrastructure Geography
change
Beliefs Habits
improbable at first. The aim of our scenarios is to
help think the unthinkable and plan for sustain- Social Networks Values
able options in the future. Situational factors Influencing human Behavioural factors
behaviour Self-efficacy
Institutional
The focus of our scenarios lies primarily on Framework Awareness
people’s lifestyles. As people live within a soci- Social Learning Leadership
ety, and within global and local systems, we also Access to Perceptions
Capital Knowledge
Information
Altruism
Identity
6 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
The backcasting method
driving alternative sustainable In order to establish four sustainable lifestyle scenarios
futures. Through scenarios for Europe in 2050, we have used a methodology called
Usual future perspective
we aim to explore the ways in backcasting. The backcasting method allows us to ad-
which promising niche strate- dress the risk that starting from the present may lead to
gies for more sustainable living Space of opportunities concentrating on challenges that are irrelevant for the
could grow into widespread future we aim to achieve.
practices that have the po-
tential to decrease the overall Backcasting helps us to set our compasses towards
environmental stress on our sustainable futures by defining sustainable lifestyles,
societies. and their elements, as fixed variable goals. This norma-
tive goal as a starting point for the scenarios helps us
3. Our scenarios provide a start- to see the discrepancies between current realities and
ing point for identifying oppor- desirable futures, but also helps us to understand, where
tunity spaces for the develop- disruptive changes are most needed. Backcasting ex-
ment of creative strategies to Now 2050 plores alternative pathways to successfully reaching the
not only mainstream current Cylinder model of constructing possible future scenarios
desired future goals.
sustainable practices, but also
to develop new solutions for Our premise is that there are factors that set limits to
more sustainable living so- meaningful future living such as:
Future perspective with system boundaries
cieties. The scenarios offer • limited global crude oil reserves that force produc-
insights into how different driv- tion to decline at some point (peak oil)
ers of change interact, shape Spa
ce of Core • a limited “carbon budget” of greenhouse gas
lifestyles and help in identifying opport
unities vision concentration in the atmosphere
the role of various gatekeep-
ers who facilitate the change
through scaling up and multi- Exceeding these or other relevant limits would cre-
plying the current, promising ate feedback effects that would very likely reduce the
practices on different stages of Carbon budget resources and capabilities available to people living in
development. Peak oil the coming decades. Hence the scope of desirable, but
achievable futures would also be more limited in the fu-
Now 2050 ture. To generate future lifestyle scenarios that are rele-
vant and robust, it is imperative to recognize these limits.
Cone model of constructing meaningful future scenarios
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops |7
The sustainable lifestyle = 8000 kg per annum
In order to create scenarios for sustainable life- tion processes behind them (i.e. in the areas of footprint thus serves as a tool to comprehensively
styles in 2050, we need definitions and common consuming, moving, housing and health). In this direct lifestyles to levels within planetary bounda-
targets to specify what is meant by ”sustainable context, our sustainable lifestyle material footprint ries as described e.g. by Johan Rockström and
lifestyles”. In the SPREAD project we have de- means the use of renewable and non-renewable other scientists (see below). It also provides a way
fined the material footprint of a sustainable life- material resources (excl. water and air) plus the to measure progress and milestones of success
style at 8000 kg per annum (p.a.) for one person. erosion caused by agriculture and forestry. It cov- towards our future sustainable lifestyle goals.
This quantified target forms the fundamental ers the whole lifecycle from the extraction of raw
assumption on which each of our four developed materials to the processing industry, distribution, The material footprint of 8000 kg p.a. consists
and previously described scenarios is built. Our consumption, recycling, and disposal. of household goods, food and beverages, eve-
scenarios describe what 8 000 kg living can look ryday mobility and tourism, electricity, heating
like in four diverse future societies. The idea of the material footprint is to provide and housing. However, the composition of the
a comprehensive and understandable tool to footprint is not similar for everyone. The share of
The 8000 kg p.a. of material footprint per person reduce different kinds of present and future envi- consumption in a material footprint of 8000 kg
is based on the work of Michael Lettenmeier, ronmental challenges (for example in the areas of p.a. can differ based on the values, needs and
Stefan Bringezu, Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek et al food, mobility, housing and health). aspirations of each person’s unique lifestyle. For
from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environ- example, some people may accumulate more of
ment and Energy on a safe and sustainable level When the material footprint of an average Eu- their footprint through mobility while others move
of natural resource use. ropean lifestyle drops from 27000 – 40 000 (ap- less, but live in a larger apartment. Not everyone
proximate current average lifestyle footprint per needs to live the same way, but – at least on aver-
The material footprint is a tool to measure and person) to 8000 kg per year, the environmental age – everyone must live within boundaries of our
manage or optimize the resource consumption of and resulting social impacts of our lifestyles will planetary system in order to realize our sustain-
our lifestyles, including the products and produc- drop and change considerably. The material able future.
8 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Environmental and social 1. Environmental boundaries 2. Social boundaries
indicators included in We draw on the planetary boundaries frame- We use population growth and human develop-
the 8000 kg p.a. lifestyle: work developed by a group of earth system and ment indices based on statistics and research by
environmental scientists led by Johan Rockström UNDP and UN Population Division. These social
from the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Due to the system boundaries (the goals for 2050) are the
complexity of quantifying these planetary bound- minimum requirements for socially sustainable
aries, we only included six of the original nine in development. The material footprint boundary of
the background considerations for the scenarios. 8000 kg p.a. for one person’s lifestyle is based on
As the quantification of the indicators used by the worldwide recognition of these social system
Rockström’s group on a lifestyle level would have boundaries.
been extremely complex, we used the material
footprint (see above) as an indicator for the vari-
ous kinds of environmental impacts caused by
any kind of material and energy use.
Environmental boundaries Social boundaries
Current Boundary Current
Earth-system process Human development Goal 2050
value value Value
Climate change Human Developed Index
Atmospheric carbon dioxide 387 350 (measure of life expectancy,
concentration (ppm by volume) 0,63 0,77
literacy, education and
Biodiversity loss standards of living)
Extinction rate (number of >100 10 Years of education in less
species per million per year) developed countries 6 8
Biochemical (average years)
Anthropogenic nitrogen Life expectancy
121 35 70 >75
removed from the atmosphere (global average)
(millions of tonnes per year) GINI coefficient
Land use (Measure of the inequality:
Land surface converted to 11,7 15 a value 0 expressing total 0,7 0,55
cropland (percent) equality and a value 1
Fresh water maximal inequality.)
Global human consumption 2600 4000 Global population
of water (km3/yr) 7 8,9
(billion)
Ozone layer
Stratospheric ozone 283 276
concentration (Dobson units)
Reference: Rockström J. et all. (2011) Reference: UNDP (2011)
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops |9
Four scenarios, two critical uncertainties
In order to establish four scenarios that would
Pandemic technology
significantly differ from each other, we defined Globally there are a few dominant technologies for any task or human
need. Technologies for building, transportation, energy production,
at the outset four future landscapes through
and communication exist everywhere and look similar. There’s fierce
which the scenarios would be constructed. competition on the global markets and commercial dominance yields
huge rewards. Technology in 2011 could be called pandemic. Every-
This was done by combining the two critical vari- one’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manu-
ables, which we call uncertainties. We use these facturers) that runs on petrol or diesel fuel (globally exchanged goods).
uncertainties to define lifestyles and societies.
The two uncertainties and assumptions about Human-centrism
them underlining our work were that:
Meritocracy A human-centric society pivots around
widening the use of human capital in all
• Technology is either pandemic or endemic. A meritocratic society circles around its forms. Both civic and public use of
professional skills. The most com- skills is valued. Everyone has something
• Society’s governing principle is either human- mercially valuable professional skills valuable to give or to do. Society’s suc-
centric or meritocratic. are the engines of the economy. cess depends on everyone contributing
Members of those professions are and on everyone’s ability to be good
By combining these two sets of alternatives, we paid accordingly. Policies and struc- citizens, family members, neighbours
reached our four possible future landscapes. The tures are customized to facilitate the and professionals. There is some divi-
following are descriptions of what these future work of the leading industries and sion of labour, but self-improvement
professions. Division of labour is at through leisure is also very much appre-
landscapes would look like on the societal level. its extreme. You do only what you’re ciated: e.g. through family time, active
really good at. consumption, civic activities, handicraft,
These two critical uncertainties defined the main arts. You do what you can – and what
drivers shaping the scenarios and the scenario you feel motivated to do.
process. At later stage of the work we defined
four additional drivers for each scenario. With the Endemic technology
help of these drivers we were able to give a rea-
The tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown
sonable explanation on how sustainable lifestyles locally: technology emerges out of local conditions, resources, and
and the sustainable society can be reached in peculiarities. Local living conditions rule technology. Where there is
each scenario. wood, houses are built of timber – where the days are extremely hot,
people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is
wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by ef-
ficiency and innovations gained through thinking and acting locally.
10 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050Pandemic technology
Singular Governing
Super Champions the Commons
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Local Loops Empathetic
Communities
Endemic technology
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops | 11How did we get here?
The development of future scenarios for more Phase One: Phase two:
sustainable lifestyles in 2050 builds on all previ- Defining the scenario framework Defining four scenario landscapes
ous work in the project. The research conducted
on critical lifestyle impacts as well as the barri- The development of our scenario framework Based on the analysis of the research and
ers and drivers impeding and encouraging more included the analysis of the project’s baseline re- the survey, we were able to define two critical
sustainable ways of living provide a solid basis search and identification of promising practice on variables or uncertainties that we combined to
for creating pathways towards possible futures sustainable lifestyles, as well as further input and produce four alternative future landscapes. We
where these challenges can be overcome and analysis from a crosscutting group of relevant did this using the principles of systems thinking,
opportunities for improved living realised. stakeholders and experts. which helped us map the relevant situational and
behavioural factors influencing human behaviour.
In November 2011, following the baseline re-
search, a selective Delphi Survey was conducted The two critical uncertainties are technology and
Sustainable lifestyle amongst a crosscutting group of relevant stake- a society’s governing principle. We were able to
scenarios 2050 – the “making of” holders and experts. The survey aimed at finding divide technology into either pandemic or endem-
a feasible framework for the backcasting work- ic, and the governing principle of the society into
The creation of alternative futures for sustainable shop. The survey questionnaire was formulated either meritocratic or human-centred. By combin-
lifestyles to as far as 2050 was completed in five based on the findings of the SPREAD baseline ing these uncertainties, we created the scenario
phases. report, the SPREAD launch conference report quadrants. These were elaborated into four alter-
and promising practices cards from the SPREAD native future landscapes, which formed the basis
1. Defining the framework (axes of critical un-
Visioning workshop. Around 40 people out of 110 for our work in the backcasting workshop.
certainties) for the creation of the scenario
invited responded to the survey.
quadrants: Baseline research and findings of
the SPREAD Delphi survey of expert views.
The survey questionnaire included a formulation Phase three:
2. Defining four scenario landscapes. of assumptions or “arguments” that participants
3. Exploring the pathways to sustainable living: were asked to evaluate (based on assumptions Exploring the pathways to sus-
Backcasting workshop in Tuusula, Finland. probability, desirability and importance) and com- tainable living: Backcasting work-
4. Qualifying and quantifying the scenarios and
ment (explaining what drivers would cause an shop in Tuusula, Finland
assumption to be realised or fail to be realised).
pathways: Research & 2nd Delphi survey. Instead of asking for comments on current trends, The ”Counting backwards workshop” was held
5. Finalising the scenario stories and visualisa- the respondents were requested to describe on the 24-25th of November 2011 in Tuusula,
tions. things they see in place in 2050, in a world where Finland. There, four alternative scenario pathways
sustainable lifestyles are the norm across Europe. from 2012 to 2050 were created with the help of
12 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 205054 participants from 16 countries, representing Phase four: Phase five:
stakeholder groups from start-up businesses to Qualifying and quantifying the Finalising the scenario stories
governments, multinational companies, NGOs,
researchers, entrepreneurs, designers and
scenarios and pathways: and visualisations
independent policy experts. These participants Research & Delphi survey In the final phase, the scenarios were advanced
were divided into four groups and each defined to final stories and visualisations to show what
an alternative scenario narrative and pathways To qualify the scenario stories and pathways for- sustainable lifestyles in 2050 could look like were
to sustainable lifestyles in Europe between 2012 mulated in phase three, a second Delphi survey, created. At this stage, the scenarios were further
and 2050. with stakeholders and experts, was conducted. elaborated on to make the differences in each
The aim of the second survey was to gather alternative future society explicit with the identifi-
In the workshop the backcasting method was additional assumptions and arguments for each cation of four drivers of change for each scenario.
used to explore the pathways to more sustaina- scenario. Respondents were asked to comment Further focus was put on defining what life is like
ble living and to further define each alternative fu- from the perspective of his or her expertise. for different people in each scenario and how
ture scenario. Starting with the alternative future Survey results were fed into a revised draft of the environmental and social changes have impacted
landscapes created in phase two, participants scenarios. their lives, or become catalysts for behaviour
“counted backwards” from the 2050 futures to change.
today. Each group was challenged to co-create The scenario drafts were further tested and
the pathways to their alternative future where quantified through the SPREAD People’s Forum,
sustainable 8 000 kg lifestyles are societal norms which we call “iFuture”. iFuture enabled us to
– What would have to have happened 2040, 2025 explore the scenarios with “real people” from
and 2015 in order to reach different 8 000 kg life- across Europe, with focus groups assembled
styles in this scenario? Special focus was put on in four European countries from January-March
critical lifestyle impact issues (e.g. food, mobility, 2012 (Finland, Germany, Hungary and Spain). In
housing and health) as well as drivers of lifestyle the iFuture workshops the SPREAD project was
choices, such as enabling infrastructure and be- able to connect the scenario stories to peo-
havior change strategies that were highlighted in ples’ real assumptions, aspirations and ideas
the SPREAD baseline research. about “the good life” and their own sustainable
lifestyles, where the size of individual material
footprints do not exceed 8 000 kg p.a.
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops | 13Four scenarios to
sustainable lifestyles
2012–2050
14 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050Singular Super Champions
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops | 15Pandemic technology
An ageing Europe receives a transformative and Big investments paid off: Scientific breakthroughs
Singular
Super Champions
Governing
the Commons
rejuvenating spark, in order to survive as China in material technology made the up-cycling of
Human-centrism
began its strides towards gaining total global raw materials profitable. Firms in the cradle to
Meritocracy
dominance in cleantech markets at the start of cradle business started to make solid profits in
the 2010 decade. At almost the last moment, in the latter half of 2020’s. Access to the consump-
2015, the EU wagered all of its political power tion cycle and what was previously called waste
Local Loops Empathetic
Communities
and public resources to force companies and became the key determinant of success to the
Endemic technology
consumers into the era of a new industrial revo- large multinational firms. New service and dis-
lution. Developing new materials and bringing tribution models were created. They put new
Singular Super about a revolution in production technologies
comes about through incentives and political
emphasis on building lasting relationships with
customers. This was the only way to make the
Champions
measures. European nations agree to remove all valuable resources stored in material products
subsidies from industries operating with inef- return to production. Consumers experienced this
ficient legacy technologies in the energy and through services that equipped them constantly
resource intensive fields. All available budget in with up-to-date models of the goods they have
the member states is invested in massive R&D once bought access to. For some, these techno-
centres, demonstration projects and especially in logically driven lifestyle goods compensated and
Alternative Sustainable Society 1: education. replaced their past needs for spacious single-
Supporting 8 000 kg Sustainable family houses and modestly priced cars.
Lifestyles This was not a pain-free road to success. Revo-
lutionising technologically and ecologically out- Singular Super Champions is a society in which
In the scenario Singular Super Champions Eu- dated production processes, as well as, cutting success, both for individuals and societies alike,
rope has made the leap to a new type of sus- subsidies from fuel and many other commodities is gained through persistent faith in education
tainable, competitive and equitable economy: means that many people lost their jobs. All trans- and enterprise. In job markets expertise is eve-
a result of numerous treaties, declarations and portation, and especially single car use became rything because technology develops fast and
official goals starting from 2035. The leap is much more expensive and all associated hous- the only source of success in the era of resource
achieved with the deployment of market instru- ing costs rose. The big reform didn’t treat every scarcity is expert knowledge.
ments that also radically reform many condi- citizen or region equally. This created turmoil in
tions that have shaped European lifestyles over declining regions in the 2020’s but, the masses Everyone has access to basic education, learn-
the past decades. Cleantech and upcycling were forced to adapt. Simultaneous reforms in ing and knowledge. But beyond that there is a
businesses flourish as sustainability has become welfare provisions due to budget cuts drove many moral obligation for continuous development of
the business opportunity of the century. Europe Europeans to migrate and search for income op- personal and professional skills that drive sus-
of Singular Super Champions is a society that portunities from thriving metropolitan regions thus tainable societies. Leisure time is therefore quite
celebrates an ethos of learning, achieving and speeding up the concentration of the population different from leisure time in 2012. It is spent on
self-mastery. and sources of wealth. learning and education that is self-centred yet
16 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050pragmatic. The most affluent people, The Singu- decreased dramatically over the years. The painful Singular Super Champions scenario
lar Super Champions, have transcended material measures provided a catalyst for rapid change. narrative – how did it all happen?
consumption. Instead of consuming, they make »» The European Green New Deal
investments in themselves through studying new Sustainability has become the business opportu-
skills, both to improve professionally and to be- nity of the century. It breathes new life into entre- »» Transparency gets the prices right
come champions of their individual lifestyle. preneurship, new business models, and people »» The upcycling economy
experiment with various aspects of sustainable
living at home which saves money in the short »» Learning, not earning
How are sustainable term and proves resilient in the long term. These drivers are depicted as events on the timeline.
lifestyles achieved?
As people started to get access to detailed
The road towards sustainability started with peo- data on their own behaviour through their smart What is life like in
ple having to pay more for the necessities and phones in real time, and science provides in- Singular Super Champions
luxuries that are less expensive in 2012. creasing amounts of information regarding
What changes between 2012 and 2050?
healthy and sustainable alternatives, people Education Embedded into everyday life and practices, lifelong
Due to extreme urbanisation, people live in even started rationalizing their diets. Instead of taste, instead of short cycles in the beginning of life.
Individualized and commoditisized. Basis of welfare
more dense cities than they did in the 2010’s. As nutrition became the key driver of day-to-day provision.
the importance of cities and their centres rise at food choices. Work Human resources highlight work. Talent is concen-
trated in global organizations. Entrepreneur vs. super
the same time, the most talented people aspire to talented multinationals class.
be in the downtown areas of progress in the me- In addition to price drivers changing the ways City 10-15 highly urbanized metropolises in Europe.
Extremely dense. Lots of new infrastructure. New
tropolis. This raises the prices of apartments and people behave, technological innovation has specialised areas of excellence.
location starts to compensate for space – which provided many sustainable choices and alterna- Health Preventative public healthcare. Rational diets. Self-
diagnosis.
leads to more sustainable housing alternatives for tives not available in 2012. New materials made
Living Location compensates size of the flat. New materials
the mainstream. it possible to build houses that are extremely and design. Price drives density.
energy efficient. Breakthroughs in technology Food Price and health efficient diet. Large scale organic
production.
With regards to mobility, rising resource prices enable retrofitting and new construction as vi- Mobility New rail systems within and between metropolises.
started to influence people’s behaviour even more able ways to provide sustainable living possibili- Personalized rapid transport systems. Smart mobility
solutions. High prices.
directly. As the price of gas hit new peaks, some of ties. The post-oil era, in turn, changed cars into Consuming Meanings and symbols get consumed more than
the poorest households ended up sacrificing sig- mobile solutions for electricity. Locally produced products. Education and self-projected me. Price
mechanism.
nificant amounts of their income for their personal renewable energy is stored in idle car batteries Economy Large multinational firms. Efficiency. Competition.
mobility. This drove urbanisation, which again when cars are parked In a society of Singular Eco-industrial revolution. Standardized transparent
data
led to people needing to use their resources for Super Champions sustainability is accomplished Sense of From technological progress. Transparency. Surveil-
mobility less. Only the most wealthy people had through changes in behaviour patterns and con- security lance. Individual choices. Thought leaders.
Leasure Investing in own education and training.
the possibility to travel exceedingly as air travel sumption practices and consumer choices along time
was out of reach for many. Mobility in general has with technological innovations.
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops | 17You can also read
