REVIEW OF RESEARCH 2020 - Informed policy for a better Ireland - The Economic and Social Research Institute
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About the ESRI The Economic and Social Research Institute is an ESRI researchers uphold the highest academic independent research institute working towards standards. The quality of the Institute’s research a vision of ‘Informed policy for a better output is guaranteed by a rigorous peer review Ireland’. The ESRI seeks to support sustainable process. Research is published only when it economic growth and social progress in Ireland meets the required standards and practices. by providing a robust knowledge base capable Research quality has also been assessed as part of providing effective solutions to public policy of two peer reviews of the Institute, in 2010 and challenges. 2016. The Institute was founded in 1960 by a group ESRI research findings are disseminated widely of senior civil servants, led by Dr T.K. Whitaker, in books, journal articles and reports. Reports who identified the need for independent and published by the ESRI are available to download, in-depth research to support the policymaking free of charge, from its website. ESRI staff process in Ireland. Since then, the Institute has members communicate research findings at remained committed to independent research regular conferences and seminars, which provide and its work is free of any expressed ideology a platform for representatives from government, or political position. The Institute publishes all civil society and academia to discuss key findings research reaching the appropriate academic from recently published studies and ongoing standard, irrespective of its findings or who funds research. the research. The ESRI is a company limited by guarantee, The ESRI brings together leading experts from answerable to its members and governed by a a variety of disciplines who work together to Council, comprising a minimum of 11 members break new ground across a number of research and a maximum of 14 members, who represent initiatives. The expertise of its researchers a cross-section of ESRI members: academia, is recognised in public life and researchers civil service, state agencies, businesses and civil are represented on the boards and advisory society. committees of several national and international organisations.
Contents Introduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 The year in numbers������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������4 ESRI Conferences and Public Seminars�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 Conferences, Webinars and Workshops������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 Public Seminars��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������6 Research Areas���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������7 Behavioural Science�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������8 Competitiveness, Trade and FDI��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14 Education���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 21 Energy, Environment and Infrastructure�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 Growing Up in Ireland������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Health and Quality of Life������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Labour Market and Skills��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 46 Macroeconomics���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 52 Migration, Integration and Demography������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 58 Social Inclusion and Equality�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 64 Tax, Welfare and Pensions������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 70 External Commitments of Research Staff������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 76 Staff List as of 31 December 2020���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 81 ESRI Review of Research 2020 1
(L to R) Philip Lane (European Central Bank) and Alan Barrett (Director, ESRI) in conversation at the Royal Irish Academy on 14 February 2020. (l to R) Alan Barrett (Director, ESRI) and Michael McGrath TD, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform meeting in the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform on 23 September 2020. 2 ESRI Review of Research 2020
Introduction The ESRI’s annual Review of Research is an We re-directed our research agenda rapidly in opportunity for us to describe the important 2020 and, like many others, changed our working work of the Institute as we strive to achieve practices overnight to a remote model. However, our vision of ‘informed policy for a better we also maintained the core features of our work Ireland’. The ESRI performs a unique role in and I will mention just two here. Irish public life in producing high-quality, in- dependent research which functions as a key Firstly, our commitment to academic rigour was input into evidence-informed policy-making. maintained. A rigorous peer review process guarantees the quality of the Institute’s research The extent of public policy challenges and the output and we publish work only when it meets need for evidence were never more evident than the highest standards. Our researchers also in 2020 as the world grappled with the COVID publish in international peer-reviewed journals, crisis. At the time of writing, the crisis continues thereby demonstrating that our work measures although with hope on the horizon as the vaccine up to top international standards. programme gathers pace. Secondly, the Institute remained independent, From early in 2020, the Institute re-oriented its with its work free of any expressed ideology or research agenda and worked to contribute to political position. We publish all research reaching the broader understanding of the impacts of the the appropriate academic standard, irrespective crisis and the policies needed to mitigate those of its findings or who funds the research. impacts. In the case of some of our research programmes, the inputs into the policy sphere As we look ahead to widespread vaccination were very direct. For example, the Health team and the re-opening of Ireland’s economy and supported the work of the National Public Health society, the ESRI will remain committed to Emergency Team (NPHET) through their work supporting informed public debate by promoting on modelling the demands on the healthcare the importance of high-quality research, by system arising from COVID. Our Behavioural making our research widely available and by Research Unit also supported NPHET, for example, communicating the results in a variety of public by developing clearer insights into how public fora. health messaging could be most effectively communicated. Our Tax, Pensions and Welfare Before concluding, I want to thank our funders, team undertook analysis of the costs and our members and our research partners for their distributional impacts of the new COVID-related valuable support. I would like to acknowledge in payments. particular the grant provided by the Department Other strands of research also provided important of Public Expenditure and Reform. I would insights into how the crisis was impacting upon also like to thank the numerous government different groups. For example, the challenges for departments, state agencies and other disadvantaged children, younger workers and organisations that commissioned the research women all featured in ESRI research and the described throughout this document. associated reports will help to direct policy in the coming months and years as we work to redress the negative impacts of the crisis. In addition, Professor Alan Barrett the macroeconomic impacts were assessed Director of the ESRI in the four issues of the Quarterly Economic Commentary. ESRI Review of Research 2020 3
2020 The Year in Numbers Publications Research Bulletins 31 70 Journal articles Book/Report chapters 11 42 ESRI Working Papers Reports 51 Oireachtas Written answers 49 + Committee mentions 54 ESRI researchers + 78 Dáil debates addressed Oireachtas The ESRI was + 11 Seanad debates committees 2 times. mentioned in Oireachtas proceedings 183 times. Media Events 72 35 (29 online) radio and television interviews Research programmes and projects New research Completed research Ongoing research programmes and programmes and programmes and projects: projects: projects: 54 17 83
ESRI CONFERENCES AND PUBLIC SEMINARS 2020 CONFERENCES, WEBINARS AND WORKSHOPS • Value of the local environment for health • Evaluation of SICAP pre-employment and wellbeing: planning implications, supports, September January • UCD-ESRI energy policy research conference, • Growing Up in Ireland data workshop, September January, March, September • International practices on civics and • Attracting and retaining migrant-led start- language requirements linked to ups and innovative entrepreneurs from naturalisation, September outside the EU, January • ‘Has the Gender Revolution Stalled?’ – 2020 • Environmental policy, competitiveness Geary Lecture with Paula England, Professor and green growth: International and Irish of Sociology, NYU, October evidence, February • ESRI post-Budget briefing, October • The potential costs and distributional effect • Student and school leader experience of of COVID-19 related unemployment in Educate Together second-level, October Ireland, April • Growing Up in Ireland 12th Annual Research • Minimum wage policy in Ireland, May Conference, October • MaREI’s 9th Annual Energy and Climate • Supporting young people’s sexual health and Policy Research Seminar, May wellbeing through evidence and practice, • The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on November consumption and indirect taxes in Ireland, • Social transfers and deprivation in Ireland: A May study of cash and non-cash payments tied • National statuses for migrants in need of to housing, childcare, and primary health protection: Ireland and the EU, May care services, November • Origin and integration: A study of migrants • Environment, health & wellbeing conference in the 2016 Irish Census, June 2020, November • Child poverty in Ireland and the pandemic • Arts and cultural participation among recession, July 17-year-olds, November • Income adequacy in retirement, July • Gender balance at work: a study of an Irish • Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for Civil Service department, December policy in relation to children and young • Supporting integration: access to citizenship people, July in Ireland and the EU, December • Launch of new Growing Up in Ireland • Monitoring migrant integration in Ireland report: ‘Growing Up in Ireland: The Lives of and COVID-19, December 17/18-Year-Olds’, July ESRI Review of Research 2020 5
ESRI PUBLIC SEMINAR SERIES • Estimated human capital externalities in an • The regional effect of Australia’s Consumer endogenous growth framework, January Directed Care model for older people, • The impact of social prescribing on general November practice use, February • Age, morbidity, or something else? A • Good schools or good students? The residual approach using microdata to importance of selectivity for school rankings, measure the impact of technological March progress on healthcare expenditure, December (L to R) Paul Gosling, (Special Advisor to the SDLP); Alan Barrett (Director, ESRI); Matthew O’Toole (SDLP MLA); and Seamus McGuinness (ESRI) meeting in Stormont on 2 September 2020. Alan Barrett (Director, ESRI) at the EMN Ireland/Department of Justice conference titled ‘Attracting and Retaining Migrant-led Start-ups and Innovative Entrepreneurs from outside the EU’ held on 29 January 2020 6 ESRI Review of Research 2020
RESEARCH AREAS A key feature of research in the ESRI is its multidisciplinary and collaborative nature. ESRI researchers are involved in cutting-edge research projects, inspired by an international and vibrant team across multiple disciplines. The research outputs contribute to the national and international debate on major issues for society. In 2020 the Institute’s research agenda was organised in the following 11 areas: BEHAVIOURAL TAXATION, SCIENCE COMPETITIVENESS, WELFARE AND TRADE AND FDI PENSIONS SOCIAL INCLUSION AND EQUALITY EDUCATION MIGRATION, ENERGY, INTEGRATION AND ENVIRONMENT & DEMOGRAPHY INFRASTRUCTURE LABOUR MARKETS GROWING UP IN AND SKILLS IRELAND HEALTH AND MACROECONOMICS QUALITY OF LIFE ESRI Review of Research 2020 7
Behavioural Science ESRI Review of Research 2020 9
Behavioural Science RESEARCH AREA COORDINATOR: Pete Lunn Highlights • A review of evidence for using behavioural OTHERS WORKING IN science to fight COVID-19, which included THIS AREA INCLUDE: an extensive literature search of relevant Deirdre Robertson, Shane behavioural interventions and studies of crises, was published at the start of the Timmons, Kieran Mohr, pandemic in Ireland. Hannah Julienne, Ciarán Lavin and Martina Barjaková • An experimental pre-test of COVID Tracker, Ireland’s COVID-19 contact-tracing app, was carried out before its launch, with a large sample of smartphone users. 10 ESRI Review of Research 2020
The Behavioural Science research area uses controlled laboratory, online and field experiments to investigate decisions and behaviours across multiple policy areas. For the Behavioural Research Unit (BRU), 2020 was dominated by work on COVID-19 At the beginning of the pandemic, the team The results demonstrated better public produced a rapid review of relevant evidence, engagement with some versions. These ranging from tests of practical interventions findings fed directly into the design and designed to increase handwashing to how successful launch of the app. best to galvanise support for collective public In addition to work on COVID-19, the BRU action. This review was the first international completed an experimental study, funded paper to be published on how to use by the OECD, that involved undertaking a behavioural science to support the COVID-19 laboratory experiment in Ireland and Chile. response. The study showed that consumers in both Pete Lunn, the head of the BRU, joined the a developed and an emerging economy Behavioural Change Subgroup of NPHET, which were vulnerable to exploitation through commissioned a series of research studies personalised pricing (varying prices charged from the team, funded by the Department to different customers based on background of Health. The studies were designed to characteristics or internet search histories), investigate different aspects of the public regardless of the strength of online regulatory response to the pandemic. This stream of work disclosures. was turned around very rapidly, using online The BRU also completed an online pre-test data collection. It led to papers on: testing of explanatory ‘primers’ designed to explain effective ways to promote social distancing, time-of-use (ToU) tariffs to residential measuring public expectations, trialling electricity consumers, funded by the communications to support people needing to Commission for the Regulation of Utilities. self-isolate, measuring public understanding The study demonstrated generational of the Test-and-Trace system, comparing differences in how consumers respond to the public and expert perceptions of the riskiness potential financial and environmental benefits of different social activities, and gauging the of ToU tariffs. It also showed that presenting reliability of self-reports of compliance with tariffs as graphical clocks made consumers public health guidelines. more likely to make mistakes. The findings One additional study involved pre-testing are being used to assist consumers during the different versions of COVID Tracker, Ireland’s rollout of smart meters across the country. contact-tracing app. The online study randomised participants to download one of eight different versions of the app, which varied in their ‘call to action’ and description of how the app worked and stored data. ESRI Review of Research 2020 11
Journal Articles Predicting farms’ noncompliance with regulations on nitrate pollution, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Pete Lunn, Seán Lyons, Martin Murphy. Can Visual Cues to Portion Size Reduce the Number of Portions Consumed? Two Rainfall, population density and voter turnout, Randomized Controlled Trials, Annals of Electoral Studies, Vol. 64, April 2020, 102128, Behavioral Medicine, Deirdre Robertson, Abian Garcia Rodriguez, Paul Redmond. Ciarán Lavin, Pete Lunn. Smart choices? An experimental study of smart Demographic variation in active consumer meters and time-of-use tariffs in Ireland, behaviour: On-line search for retail broadband Energy Policy, Vol. 140, May 2020, 111243, services, Heliyon, Vol 6, Issue 7, July 2020, Cameron Belton, Pete Lunn. e04478, Elsevier, Philip Carthy, Pete Lunn, Using Behavioral Science to help fight the Seán Lyons. Coronavirus, Journal of Behavioral Public Experimental evidence for the effects of Administration, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2020, Pete emissions charges and efficiency information Lunn, Cameron Belton, Ciarán Lavin, Féidhlim on consumer car choices, Journal of Cleaner McGowan, Shane Timmons, Deirdre Robertson. Production, Vol. 254, May 2020, 120140, Áine Using decision aids to support self-isolation Ní Choisdealbha, Shane Timmons, Pete Lunn. during the COVID-19 pandemic, Psychology & Green and simple: Disclosures on eco- Health, Routledge, Pete Lunn, Shane Timmons, labels interact with situational constraints in Hannah Julienne, Cameron Belton, Martina consumer choice, Journal of Consumer Policy, Barjaková, Ciarán Lavin, Féidhlim McGowan. Vol. 43, 2020, pp. 699–722, Springer, Áine Ní Choisdealbha, Pete Lunn. It depends on how you ask: measuring bias Reports and Other Publications in population surveys of compliance with COVID-19 public health guidance, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2020, Public expectations for lifting COVID-19 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, Shane Timmons, restrictions, ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Frances McGinnity, Cameron Belton, Martina Series No. 88, ESRI, Dublin, Cameron Belton, Barjaková, Pete Lunn. Hannah Julienne, Shane Timmons, Martina Barjaková, Ciarán Lavin, Féidhlim McGowan, Motivating social distancing during the Pete Lunn. COVID-19 pandemic: An online experiment, Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, Pete Lunn, Public understanding and perceptions of the Shane Timmons, Cameron Belton, Martina COVID-19 Test-and-Trace system, ESRI Survey Barjaková, Hannah Julienne, Ciarán Lavin. and Statistical Report Series No. 96, ESRI, Dublin, Shane Timmons, Martina Barjaková, Nudger beware: Diagnosis precedes remedy, Deirdre Robertson, Cameron Belton, Pete Lunn. Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Vol. 3, Special Issue, pp. 23-26, Pete Lunn. Official advice improves mortgage-holders’ perceptions of switching: Experimental evidence, Behavioural Public Policy, Shane Timmons, Martina Barjaková, Terence McElvaney, Pete Lunn. 12 ESRI Review of Research 2020
ESRI Research Bulletins ESRI Working Papers CCPC advice helps consumers judge Behavioural pre-testing of COVID Tracker, mortgage offers, but potentially serious Ireland’s contact tracing app, ESRI, Dublin, misunderstandings remain, ESRI, Dublin, Hannah Julienne, Ciarán Lavin, Cameron Shane Timmons, Martina Barjaková, Terence Belton, Martina Barjaková, Shane Timmons, McElvaney, Pete Lunn. Pete Lunn. Consumers struggle to choose new types of Eliciting trade-offs between water charges electricity tariffs, but comparison tools can and service benefits in Scotland, ESRI, Dublin, help, ESRI, Dublin, Cameron Belton, Cameron Belton, Ciarán Lavin, Pete Lunn. Pete Lunn. Is it riskier to meet 100 people outdoors or 14 Green and simple: Effective eco-labelling people indoors? Comparing public and expert for busy consumers, ESRI, Dublin, Áine Ní perceptions of COVID-19 risk, ESRI, Dublin, Choisdealbha, Pete Lunn. Shane Timmons, Cameron Belton, Deirdre Robertson, Martina Barjaková, Ciarán Lavin, How much do survey estimates of compliance Hannah Julienne, Pete Lunn. with COVID-19 advice depend on how the question is asked?, ESRI, Dublin, Shane Motivating social distancing during the Timmons, Frances McGinnity, Cameron Belton, COVID-19 pandemic: An online experiment, Martina Barjaková, Pete Lunn. ESRI, Dublin, Pete Lunn, Shane Timmons, Cameron Belton, Martina Barjaková, Hannah Online search for retail broadband services: Julienne, Ciarán Lavin. Who searches most?, ESRI, Dublin, Philip Carthy, Pete Lunn, Seán Lyons. Using behavioural science to help fight the Coronavirus, ESRI, Dublin, Pete Lunn, Cameron Portion size markings on snack packaging Belton, Ciarán Lavin, Féidhlim McGowan, influence how much people eat, ESRI, Dublin, Shane Timmons, Deirdre Robertson. Deirdre Robertson, Ciarán Lavin, Pete Lunn. Using decision aids to support self-isolation Predicting which farms are most likely to during the COVID-19 pandemic, ESRI, Dublin, breach nitrate pollution regulations, ESRI, Pete Lunn, Shane Timmons, Hannah Julienne, Dublin, Pete Lunn, Seán Lyons, Cameron Belton, Martina Barjaková, Ciarán Martin Murphy. Lavin, Féidhlim McGowan. ESRI Review of Research 2020 13
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Competitiveness, Trade and FDI ESRI Review of Research 2020 15
Competitiveness, Trade and FDI RESEARCH AREA COORDINATOR: Iulia Siedschlag Highlights • The speed of government interventions to OTHER COLLEAGUES contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic WORKING IN THIS AREA IN was mainly determined by countries’ health system capacity, demographic structure and 2020 INCLUDED: economic factors. Boosting the health system Mattia Di Ubaldo, Martina capacity would be important to reduce the cost Lawless, Stefano Meneto of lockdown measures aimed at containing a and Weijie Yan pandemic. • Private investment in green technologies and innovations with environmental benefits could improve the competitiveness of enterprises in the medium term. 16 ESRI Review of Research 2020
ESRI research in this area focuses primarily on structural and microeconomic factors and policies underlying competitiveness and economic growth in Ireland and other European countries in the context of international economic integration In 2020 research in this area addressed the with the EU. Further research on Brexit following themes: government interventions examined the overall trade exposure of Ireland to contain the spread of the COVID-19 and the particular customs status accorded pandemic; the effects of Brexit on inputs from to Northern Ireland under the Withdrawal Northern Ireland on Irish exports to the EU; the Agreement. effects of green investments and innovations on enterprise competitiveness; the impact Research funded by the Environmental of public R&D grants on the performance of Protection Agency found that investments awardees. in equipment for pollution control and in equipment linked to cleaner technologies Research on COVID-19 examined the speed improved in the medium term a range of with which governments across the world enterprise performance outcomes, including introduced administrative measures to contain their output, employment, productivity, export the spread of the pandemic. The results intensity and energy intensity. The effects indicated that governments in countries were found to be stronger for enterprises with a weaker health system capacity and that were larger, foreign-owned and more in countries with a larger share of elderly productive, and in low-tech industries such populations were faster to start lockdown as the food industry. Further research in this measures. The highest level of containment area found that enterprises that introduced measures was reached at a slower speed innovations with environmental benefits in larger and in more open economies. improved their export participation. Taken together, the results suggested that boosting the health system capacity would A study commissioned by the Department be important to reduce the cost of lockdown of Business, Enterprise and Innovation measures aimed at containing a pandemic. found that grants from the Enterprise Ireland Research, Development and Innovation Research funded by the Department for Programme have boosted the innovation and the Economy, Northern Ireland examined economic performance of awardees. Five the effects that Brexit could have on inputs years after receiving R&D grants, the awardees to production in Ireland that are sourced in recorded substantial increases in their R&D Northern Ireland. Detailed trade data was used expenditures, employment, output and export to map the Northern Ireland inputs into Irish sales. exports to the EU, other countries the EU has a free-trade agreement with and the rest of the world. The results highlighted a potential risk to supply-chain integration on the island that could arise if Brexit were to result in a change in how these inputs were classified by other countries engaged in free-trade agreements ESRI Review of Research 2020 17
Journal Articles Reports and Other Publications Investment in knowledge-based capital and Northern Ireland inputs to Republic of Ireland productivity: Firm-level evidence from a small EU FTA exports: Report for the Northern Ireland open economy, Review of Income and Wealth, Department of the Economy, Northern Ireland Mattia Di Ubaldo, Iulia Siedschlag. Department of the Economy, Belfast, Martina Lawless. Brexit and trade on the island of Ireland, Revue de l’OFCE, 167 (2020/3), Martina Lawless. (L to R) Keynote speaker Laura Burke (Director General, Environmental Protection Agency) and Iulia Siedschlag (ESRI) at the conference titled ‘Environmental policy, competitiveness and green growth: International and Irish evidence’ held on 21 February 2020. 18 ESRI Review of Research 2020
ESRI Working Papers Containing the COVID-19 pandemic: What determined the speed of Government interventions?, ESRI, Dublin, Iulia Siedschlag, Taken together, the Weijie Yan. results suggested Green investments and firm performance, that boosting the ESRI, Dublin, Iulia Siedschlag, Weijie Yan. Green innovations and export performance, health system ESRI, Dublin, Stefano Meneto, Iulia Siedschlag. capacity would be Go ahead and trade: The effect of uncertainty important to reduce removal in the EU’s GSP scheme, ESRI, Dublin, Ingo Borchert, Mattia Di Ubaldo. the cost of lockdown Product line extensions under the threat of measures aimed entry: evidence from the UK pharmaceuticals at containing a market, ESRI, Dublin, Farasat A. S. Bokhari, Weijie Yan. pandemic. What drives firms’ decisions to spend on environmental protection?, ESRI, Dublin, Iulia Siedschlag, Weijie Yan. ESRI Review of Research 2020 19
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Education ESRI Review of Research 2020 21
Education RESEARCH AREA COORDINATORS: Selina McCoy, Highlights Emer Smyth • The innovation shown by teachers and learners OTHERS WORKING IN during the pandemic shows the significant potential of digital technology to improve how THIS AREA INCLUDE: students learn at second level. Georgiana Mihut, Gretta Mohan, • The use of digital video in initial teacher Merike Darmody, education showed that the digital video footage Ciarán Mac Domhnaill, was highly supportive in pre-service teachers’ Bertrand Maître, Seán Lyons weekly self-reflection and in developing their and Eamonn Carroll self-reflective practice. 22 ESRI Review of Research 2020
The Education research area covers all levels of the Irish educational system, including early childhood education, primary, second- level, and further and higher education Research in 2020 focused on the impact of the be important in shaping provision for students COVID-19 pandemic for second-level students, with additional needs in primary and second- policy and provision for students with level schools, and across the post-school additional needs, the experiences of students landscape. Funded by Educate Together, in Educate Together schools, the role of new research on second-level schools in this schools in shaping health behaviours, arts and sector pointed to the inclusivity of their school cultural participation, and the role of digital climates and their focus on student-centred technologies in learning and wellbeing. learning, but highlighted some challenges given that many schools are located in In collaboration with researchers in the Energy, temporary premises. Environment, and Infrastructure research area and as part of a programme funded by the A number of studies drew on secondary Department of Environment, Climate and analysis of Growing Up in Ireland data, Communications, and ComReg, researchers including research on the role of early surveyed and interviewed second-level mobile-phone ownership in shaping child principals to understand the challenges for development and gender stereotyping schools during the first period of COVID-related in perceptions of boys’ and girls’ maths school closures. The report showed the impact performance. As part of a research programme of inequality in terms of digital access and with the HSE undertaken with a researcher socio-economic disadvantage. A review of in the Health area, two reports showed the research, as part of a research programme influence of schools on the likelihood of young with the Department of Children, people engaging in different health behaviours Equality, Diversity, Integration and Youth, (such as drinking, smoking and exercise/diet) highlighted the impact of the pandemic on and on their access to information about sex the broader wellbeing of children and young and relationships. Another study, funded by people. the Arts Council, showed the way in which the school attended influenced 17-year-olds’ Inclusion has been an important strand of ESRI access to curricular and extracurricular arts and education research, with new primary research culture, with DEIS schools playing an important for the National Disability Authority role in bridging the social gap. reviewing the provision across countries of specialist community living and personal Education researchers continued to be assistance supports for people with disabilities. involved in a range of work for the European Work was initiated for the National Council Commission, including critically assessing for Special Education on two large-scale education policy developments as part of the studies: an evaluation of the School Inclusion Directorate General for Education and Model and a longitudinal study on post- Culture’s Network of Independent Experts school pathways among young people with in Education and Training. special educational needs. Both studies will ESRI Review of Research 2020 23
Journal Articles Learning for all? Second-level education in Ireland during COVID-19, ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Series No. 92, ESRI, Dublin, Gretta Mohan, Selina McCoy, Eamonn Carroll, Secondary school subjects and gendered STEM Georgiana Mihut, Seán Lyons, Ciarán Mac enrollment in higher education in Germany, Domhnaill. Ireland, and Scotland, International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Vol. 61, Issue 1, 2020, pp. 59-78, Marita Jacob, Cristina Iannelli, Adriana Duta, Emer Smyth. Chapters in Books and Reports Forbidden fruit? Student views on the use of tablet PCs in education, Technology, Pedagogy Educational inequalities: the role of schools, and Education, Vol. 29, Issue 3, 2020, pp. 347- Nele McElvany, Heinz Günter Holtappels, 360, Bryan Coyne, Selina McCoy. Fani Lauermann, Aileen Edele, Annika Ohle- Post-secondary outcomes of innovative high Peters (eds.), Against the Odds – (In)Equity in schools: The Big Picture Longitudinal Study, Education and Educational Systems, Waxmann, Teachers College Record, Vol. 122, No. 8, Münster, Emer Smyth. 2020, Karen D. Arnold, Georgiana Mihut. Growing Up in Ireland: Insights on inclusion Secondary school transition for students with in schools, Brian Mooney (ed.), Ireland’s special educational needs in Ireland, European Yearbook of Education 2019–2020, Education Journal of Special Needs Education, Vol. 35, Matters, Dublin, Georgiana Mihut, Selina Issue 2, 2020, pp. 154-170, Selina McCoy, McCoy. Michael Shevlin, Richard Rose. How should second-level schools respond in Special education reforms in Ireland: changing an era of digital learning?, Brian Mooney (ed.), systems, changing schools, International Ireland’s Yearbook of Education 2019–2020, Journal of Inclusive Education, Neil Kenny, Education Matters, Dublin, Ann Marcus-Quinn, Selina McCoy, Georgiana Mihut. Tríona Hourigan, Selina McCoy. Video-based self-reflection among pre- Insights from the Youthreach evalution, Brian service teachers in Ireland: A qualitative study, Mooney (ed.), Ireland’s Yearbook of Education Education and Information Technologies, 2019–2020, Education Matters, Dublin, Selina 2020, Selina McCoy, Aoife Lynam. McCoy. Leaving Certification, Miriam E. David & Marilyn J. Amey (eds.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of Higher Education, Emer Reports and Other Publications Smyth. Arts and cultural participation among 17-year- olds, ESRI Research Series No. 103, ESRI, Dublin, Emer Smyth. ESRI Research Bulletins Examining the experiences of students, teachers and leaders at Educate Together Shaping educational expectations among second-level schools, ESRI Research Series No. 13-year-olds and their parents, ESRI, Dublin, 113, ESRI, Dublin, Selina McCoy, Georgiana Emer Smyth. Mihut. 24 ESRI Review of Research 2020
ESRI Working Papers Other Papers Academic and socio-emotional outcomes Gender stereotyping in parents’ and teachers’ of young people with special educational perceptions of boys’ and girls’ mathematics needs and the role of parental educational performance in Ireland, UCD Geary Institute expectations, ESRI, Dublin, Georgiana Mihut, for Public Policy Discussion Paper 202010, Selina McCoy, Bertrand Maître. ESRI, Dublin, Selina McCoy, Delma Byrne, Pat O’Connor. Choosing differently? College application behaviour and the persistence of educational advantage, ESRI, Dublin, Judith Delaney, Paul Devereux. How gender and prior disadvantage predict performance in college, ESRI, Dublin, Judith Delaney, Paul Devereux. The effect of high school rank in English and math on college major choice, ESRI, Dublin, Judith Delaney, Paul Devereux. ESRI Review of Research 2020 25
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Energy, Environment and Infrastructure ESRI Review of Research 2020 27
Energy, Environment and Infrastructure RESEARCH AREA COORDINATORS: Seán Lyons and John Curtis Highlights OTHERS WORKING IN • Visiting green space is associated with positive THIS AREA INCLUDE: outcomes for general, cardiovascular, and Philip Carthy, Kelly De mental health. The marginal health impacts are Bruin, Desta Fitiwi, Ankita greatest at relatively low visit levels. For instance, Gaur, Gianluca Grilli, Dana increasing the number of green-space visits to just once per month is associated with a 4-percentage Kirchem, Manuel Tong point increase in the probability of experiencing Koecklin, Genaro Longoria, good mental health and wellbeing. Muireann Á. Lynch, Ciarán Mac Domhnaill, Eoin • The COVID-19 crisis is estimated to have reduced Monaghan, Anne Nolan, 2020’s GDP by approximately 13 per cent, Arya Pillai, Miguel Tovar whereas, from an environmental perspective, Reaños, Constantine economy-wide CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 9.5 per cent. These reductions are Spandagos, Aykut Mert anticipated to reverse as the pandemic is brought Yakut, Shiyu Yan and under control. Tong Zhu 28 ESRI Review of Research 2020
Research in this area is funded through several multiannual research programmes Energy and Climate research is funded by benefit for the combined systems. Other the Department of Environment, Climate research includes the profitability of battery and Communications (DECC), Commission storage in electricity markets, the accuracy of for Regulation of Utilities, ESB, Ervia, Gas wind energy forecasts, and a literature review Networks Ireland, EirGrid, SSE Ireland, on heat pumps in the context of a low-carbon Viridian, Terra Solar, Science Foundation transition. Ireland (SFI), and the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Research related to the The research programme on Environmental environment, including fisheries and water Economics, funded by the Environmental quality, is funded by the Department of Protection Agency (EPA), was renewed for a Housing, Local Government, and Heritage further two-year period in June 2020. An EPA (DHLGH), the Environmental Protection research report was published in November, Agency, and Inland Fisheries Ireland. summarising the results of the research Research on electronic communications conducted over the period 2018–2020. networks and services is funded by the Additional papers on the association between Commission for Communications rents and commuting, on the links between Regulation (ComReg) and DECC. public park attributes, visits and health, and on the effects of charges and efficiency The ESRI’s Research Programme on Climate, information on consumer car choices were Energy and the Economy focused on an also published in 2020. analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on Irish emissions, the economy and A new three-year phase began of our households, and investigating the impacts of Communications research programme funded transition to a low-carbon economy on labour by DECC and ComReg. A study was conducted and employment. during the first COVID-19 school-building closures, starting in March 2020, to investigate The Energy Research Programme spans how digital connectivity, applications and market design and regulation, energy services, devices may have mediated some effect of energy infrastructure, and the interface with the sudden transition to distance education society and the environment. Research for second-level schools. This led to a report during 2020 found that regulations limiting in June 2020 focusing on the relationship the expansion of onshore wind generation between student engagement during the (e.g. set-back distances) leads to relatively lockdown and availability of high-speed low increases in overall system-level costs, broadband in school catchment areas. though there are substantial regional variations. In terms of public acceptance of The Water research programme, in energy infrastructure, attitudinal factors shape collaboration with DHLGH, undertook an people’s preferences more consistently than evaluation of public initiatives to change any of the socio-demographic characteristics. behaviours that affect water quality, and work The wastewater treatment sector is among the is currently underway on behaviours within largest electricity consumers in the economy, local authorities and the agriculture sector. and ongoing research finds that integrated Fisheries research in 2020 focused on anglers’ management of both the electricity and ‘catch and release’ choices, as well as angling wastewater systems could yield substantial demand. ESRI Review of Research 2020 29
Journal Articles Access to and consumption of natural gas: Neuroscience application for the analysis of Spatial and socio-demographic drivers, Energy cultural ecosystem services related to stress Policy, Vol. 143, 2020, 111614, John Curtis, relief in forest, Forests, Vol. 11, Issue 2, 2020, Miguel Tovar Reaños, Gianluca Grilli. 190, Sandro Sacchelli, Gianluca Grilli, Irene Capecchi, Lorenzo Bambi, Elena Barbierato, Do rising rents lead to longer commutes? A Tommaso Borghini. gravity model of commuting flows in Ireland, Urban Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2, 2021, pp. Power system impacts of community 264–279, Seán Lyons, Achim Ahrens. acceptance policies for renewable energy deployment under storage cost uncertainty, Early mobile phone ownership: influencing the Renewable Energy, Vol. 156, 2020, pp. 893- wellbeing of girls and boys in Ireland?, Journal 912, Desta Fitiwi, Muireann Á. Lynch, Valentin of Children and Media, Vol. 14, Issue 4, 2020, Bertsch. Seraphim Dempsey, Seán Lyons, Selina McCoy. Public park attributes, park visits, and Enhanced network effects and stochastic associated health status, Landscape and modelling in generation expansion planning: Urban Planning, Vol. 199, 2020, 103814, Insights from an insular power system, Gianluca Grilli, Gretta Mohan, John Curtis. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 71, September 2020, 100859, Desta Fitiwi, Recreational angling demand in a mixed Muireann Á. Lynch, Valentin Bertsch. resource fishery, Fisheries Management and Ecology, Wiley, Gianluca Grilli, Soumyadeep Floods, flood policies and changes in welfare Mukhopadhyay, John Curtis, Stephen Hynes. and inequality: Evidence from Germany, Ecological Economic, Vol. 180, February 2021, Shell shocked: The impact of foreign entry on 106879, Miguel Tovar Reaños. the gasoline retail market in China, Energy Economics, Vol. 86, February 2020, 104690, Heat pumps and our low-carbon future: A Robert Elliott, Puyang Sun, Tong Zhu. comprehensive review, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 71, January 2021, 101764, The citizens in Citizen Science: Demographic, Ankita Singh Gaur, Desta Fitiwi, John Curtis. socioeconomic, and health characteristics of biodiversity recorders in Ireland, Citizen Initial incidence of carbon taxes and Science; Theory and Practice, Vol. 5, No. 1, environmental liability. A vehicle ownership p.16, Ubiquity Press, Ciarán Mac Domhnaill, approach, Energy Policy, Vol. 143, 2020, Seán Lyons, Anne Nolan. 111579, Miguel Tovar Reaños. Why do preferences for electricity services Modelling anglers’ fish release choices using differ? Domestic appliance curtailment logbook data, Journal of Environmental contracts in Ireland, Energy Research & Social Economics and Policy, Vol. 9, Issue 2, 2020, Science, Vol. 69, November 2020, 101705, pp. 206-219, Routledge, Gianluca Grilli, John Elsevier, John Curtis, Gianluca Grilli, William Curtis, Stephen Hynes. Brazil, Jason Harold. 30 ESRI Review of Research 2020
Reports and Other Publications Research on the environment, health, Is early mobile phone ownership shaping consumer behaviour and the economy: ESRI child development? A longitudinal study of Environment Research Programme 2018–2020, wellbeing among adolescent girls and boys in EPA Research Report No. 358, EPA, Wexford, Ireland, ESRI, Dublin, Seraphim Dempsey, Seán Achim Ahrens, Peter Barlow, Brian Broderick, Lyons, Selina McCoy. Philip Carthy, Aoife Donnelly, Tom Gillespie, Linking sustainable energy consumption and Martina Hennessy, Ronan Lyons, Seán Lyons, adaptation policies against floods, ESRI, Dublin, Pete Lunn, Ciarán Mac Domhnaill, Finn Miguel Tovar Reaños. McLaughlin, Stefano Meneto, Frank Moriarty, Owen Naughton, Anne Nolan, Aonghus Ó Location, location, location: determining Domhnaill, Margaret O’Mahony, Deirdre the optimal long-run expansion of the Irish Robertson, Iulia Siedschlag, Shane Timmons, electricity system considering spatial and Manuel Tong Koecklin, Weijie Yan. network impacts, ESRI, Dublin, Desta Fitiwi, Muireann Á. Lynch, Valentin Bertsch. The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An Models of demand response and an application of the I3E model, ESRI Research application for wastewater treatment plants, Series No. 106, ESRI, Dublin, Kelly de Bruin, ESRI, Dublin, Dana Kirchem, Muireann Á. Lynch, Eoin Monaghan, Aykut Mert Yakut. Valentin Bertsch, Eoin Casey. Technical documentation of I3E model, Version Recreational angling demand in a mixed 3, ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Series No. resource fishery, ESRI, Dublin, Gianluca Grilli, 91, ESRI, Dublin, Kelly de Bruin, Aykut Mert Soumyadeep Mukhopadhyay, John Curtis, Yakut. Stephen Hynes. The benefits of visiting green space, ESRI, Dublin, Gianluca Grilli, Gretta Mohan, John ESRI Research Bulletins Curtis. The electricity system impacts of publicly- acceptable renewable energy development, Curtailing use of large domestic appliances ESRI, Dublin, Desta Fitiwi, Muireann Á. Lynch, during the peak electricity load periods, ESRI, Valentin Bertsch. Dublin, John Curtis, Gianluca Grilli, William Brazil, Jason Harold. The role of power-to-gas in the future energy system: how much is needed and who wants Fuel switching and emissions savings in the to invest?, ESRI, Dublin, Muireann Á. Lynch, residential sector, ESRI, Dublin, John Curtis, Mel Devine, Valentin Bertsch. Miguel Tovar Reaños, Gianluca Grill. Urban rents and commuting times in Ireland, Household energy poverty and children’s ESRI, Dublin, Seán Lyons, Achim Ahrens. health, ESRI, Dublin, Gretta Mohan. Initial incidence of carbon taxes and environmental liability. A vehicle ownership approach, ESRI, Dublin, Miguel Tovar Reaños. ESRI Review of Research 2020 31
Does moving home affect residential heating ESRI Working Papers decisions? Exploring heating fuel switching in Ireland, ESRI, Dublin, John Curtis, Gianluca Grilli. An experimental study of attitudes to changing Renewable electricity generation and water charges in Scotland, ESRI, Dublin, transmission network developments in light of Cameron Belton, Deirdre Robertson, Pete Lunn. public opposition: Insights from Ireland, ESRI, Are energy poverty metrics fit for purpose? An Dublin, Manuel Tong Koecklin, Desta Fitiwi, assessment using behavioural microsimulation, Joseph F. de Carolis, John Curtis. ESRI, Dublin, Miguel Tovar Reaños, Muireann Á. The use of the I3E model in macroeconomic Lynch. analysis for the Irish economy, ESRI, Dublin, Car ownership and the distributional and Kelly de Bruin, Eoin Monaghan, Aykut Mert environmental policies to reduce driving Yakut. behavior, ESRI, Dublin, Miguel Tovar Reaños. What does Paris mean for Africa? An Climate policy costs of spatially unbalanced integrated assessment analysis of the effects growth in electricity demand: the case of the Paris Agreement on African economies, of datacentres, ESRI, Dublin, Desta Fitiwi, ESRI, Dublin, Kelly De Bruin and Victoria Ayuba. Muireann Á. Lynch. 32 ESRI Review of Research 2020
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Growing Up in Ireland ESRI Review of Research 2020 35
Growing Up in Ireland RESEARCH AREA COORDINATORS: Dorothy Watson and Emer Smyth Highlights OTHERS WORKING IN • 13-year-olds hold lower expectations than their parents about their educational career: only THIS AREA INCLUDE: half of young people compared to over three- Aisling Murray, Desmond quarters of their mothers say they expect the O’Mahony, Eoin McNamara, young person to go on to higher education. Caoimhe O’Reilly, Rebecca McClintock, Amanda Quail, Eoin • Young people become less involved in cultural Keogh, Aoife Murphy, Elizabeth activities as they prepare for the Leaving Burke, Brigid Francis-Devine, Certificate and leave school: there is a marked decline in reading for pleasure and taking Lisa Kelly, Hannah Frankis, music/drama/dance lessons between 13 and 17 Caroline Goodwin, Fionnuala years of age. Waters and Bernadette Ryan 36 ESRI Review of Research 2020
Growing Up in Ireland (GUI) is the national longitudinal study of children in Ireland. It is funded by the Department of Children, Equality, Disability Integration and Youth (DCEDIY) and is jointly managed by the Department and the Central Statistics Office. The research is conducted by a consortium using Growing Up in Ireland data, and a of independent researchers at the Economic keynote address. The keynote address was and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Trinity delivered by Professor Emla Fitzsimons of College Dublin. Activity in this area involves UCL, Director of the UK’s Millennium Cohort ongoing data collection on two cohorts of Study: ‘Mental health among young people: children and young people, and the publication longitudinal evidence from the UK’. There was of detailed research findings by members of also, for the first time, an award for the best the GUI team and other researchers at the paper with a public policy focus, which was ESRI. The research examines developmental won by Dr Gretta Mohan, ESRI. outcomes for children and young people, and investigates how these vary between different ESRI researchers presented papers on a groups in society and according to earlier wide range of topics at the conference, circumstances and experiences. including the effect of the Great Recession on socioeconomic inequalities in childhood The year 2020 saw the completion of a obesity; the role of parents in mediating the successful pilot survey of 13-year-olds and relationship between media consumption their parents as a preparation for the main and child mental health from 3–9 years; fieldwork phase in 2021. The survey methods socioeconomic disadvantage in access to were adapted to reflect the challenges supports for young people with disabilities; posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and related social inequality, gender, home learning restrictions. Recognising the strong impact of activities and cognitive outcomes from early the pandemic and associated restrictions on to middle childhood; risk and protective children and young people, GUI researchers factors for mental health and wellbeing during organised a survey on their experiences during childhood and adolescence; the influence of the crisis. With the assistance of the Central caregiver’s migration status on a child’s use of Statistics Office, a web-based survey was healthcare services; difficulties in the transition completed in December 2020. The results will to second-level education: social background be published in 2021. and gender gaps in Scotland and Ireland; the effect of parental educational expectations The 2020 Annual Conference in October was on socioemotional and academic outcomes a virtual event, attracting a large international among 17/18-year-olds with disabilities in audience (with 349 registered). It mirrored Ireland; socioemotional wellbeing and school the usual in-person event, with an address social mix; and the dynamics of child poverty Minister Dr Roderic O’Gorman T.D., three in Ireland. parallel sessions of 27 talks from researchers ESRI Review of Research 2020 37
Reports and Other Publications Design, instrumentation and procedures Report on the pilot for wave five of the Cohort for cohort ’08 of Growing Up in Ireland at 9 ’08 Survey (at 9 years of age), Department years old (Wave 5), Department of Children of Children and Youth Affairs, Dublin, Aisling and Youth Affairs, Dublin, Eoin McNamara, Murray, James Williams, Sophie Gallagher, Desmond O’Mahony, Aisling Murray. Maeve Thornton, Dorothy Watson, Eoin McNamara, Desmond O’Mahony, Daráine Growing Up in Ireland: Growing up and Murphy, Caoimhe O’Reilly. developing as an adult: A review of the literature on selected topics pertaining to The Growing Up in Ireland Child Cohort come cohort ’98 at age 20 years, Department of of age: Review of the literature pertaining to Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and the 17/18 year wave, Department of Children Youth, Dublin, Ashling Mangan-Ryan, Eoin and Youth Affairs, Dublin, Aisling Murray, Eoin McNamara, Desmond O’Mahony, Daráine McNamara, Daráine Murphy, Caoimhe O’Reilly, Murphy, Caoimhe O’Reilly. Martha Neary, Oscar James. Growing Up in Ireland: The lives of 17/18-year-olds, Department of Children and Youth Affairs, Dublin, Eoin McNamara, Daráine Murphy, Aisling Murray, Emer Smyth, Dorothy Watson. The research examines developmental outcomes for children and young people, and investigates how these vary between different groups in society and according to earlier circumstances and experiences. 38 ESRI Review of Research 2020
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Health and Quality of Life ESRI Review of Research 2020 41
Health and Quality of Life RESEARCH AREA COORDINATORS: Seán Lyons, Anne Nolan and Maev-Ann Wren Highlights OTHERS WORKING IN • Expenditure on public hospital services is projected THIS AREA INCLUDE: to rise from €5.9 billion in 2018 to between Aoife Brick, Sheelah €10.8 and €14.3 billion by 2035 in nominal Connolly, Nora Donnelly, terms. Increasing input costs, especially pay, make Conor Keegan, Elish Kelly, up most of the projected rise in expenditures. Reducing current waiting-list backlogs and Pete Lunn, Bertrand Maître, maintaining waiting times is estimated to require Frances McGinnity, Greta an additional €212 million on average per annum Mohan, Aisling Murray, between 2021 and 2025. Amanda Quail, Brendan Walsh, Dorothy Watson, • A study showed that four in ten 17-year-olds Adele Bergin, Edward Henry, had not spoken to their parents about sex and Peter Barlow, Míde Griffin relationships. Young people who had discussed sex and relationships with their parents at age and Emer Smyth 13 were more likely to use contraception at first sex. Therefore, initiatives to support parents in developing positive communication skills may be expected to have broader benefits in terms of discussions about sex and relationships. 42 ESRI Review of Research 2020
Health research was carried out on several areas of health service reform and public health during 2020. The ESRI Research Programme in Healthcare the potential cost, outcomes, and challenges Reform, funded by the Department of of alternative approaches to achieving Health, published two major reports, one universal healthcare, continued in 2020. A projecting expenditure for public hospitals further HRB-funded project, in collaboration in Ireland from 2018 to 2035 and a second with RCSI, examining the costs of cognitive comparing Irish healthcare expenditure to that impairment post-stroke and interventions of other countries. Three supporting reports to ameliorate it, continued with a major were also published covering baseline demand conference in November 2020. for and utilisation of services, including public hospitals, mental health, and disability. The Irish Cancer Society-funded project on barriers and challenges to returning to Research on the links between the employment following a cancer diagnosis environment and health, as part of the continued in 2020 when a paper was research programme with the EPA, continued, published examining the effect of insurance with the programme extended for a further status on hospital waiting times. The report two-year period in June 2020. Papers on the was launched in early 2021. characteristics of biodiversity data recorders, on the links between footpath availability, The HRB-funded project on Inequalities in green space and obesity, and on the Access to GP Care concluded in 2020. Papers relationship between air pollution and asthma published looked at: the impact of free GP were published. care on the mental health of older people; the health effects of energy poverty among The research programme with HSE Health children; and the impact of prescription drug and Wellbeing finished in 2020. Two ESRI payments on the health of children. The reports, on clusters of health behaviours HRB-funded project on Mortality, conducted among young people, and on sexual health in collaboration with the Irish Longitudinal information and behaviours, were published Study on Ageing (TILDA), continued in 2020, in 2020. Both made extensive use of the with papers on data linkage methods and Growing Up in Ireland data. The first report discrepancies between mortality registration found higher rates of drinking/smoking among and survey end-of-life data released in 2020. young people whose parents are occasional or regular smokers. The latter report found a clear gender divide in reports of ease of discussions with parents about sex; young women found it easier to talk to their mothers, while young men found it easier to talk to their fathers. However, nearly 60 per cent of young men found it difficult or very difficult to talk to their fathers about sex. A three-year (2018–2020) project funded by the Health Research Board (HRB), examining ESRI Review of Research 2020 43
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