Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook - Savills

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Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook - Savills
European Commercial – December 2020

S P OT L I G H T
                            Retail investment
Savills Research
                             Focus on Food

                                                                               Photo by Giuseppe
                                                                               Argenziano on Unsplash

                   Retail investment   Food sector    Sale and leaseback   Outlook
Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook - Savills
European Retail Investment

 CHALLENGES AND                    European retail investment Q3 was the lowest since 2013, but 5% above Q2
 OPPORTUNITIES IN
 RETAIL                                              50,000

 The outlook of the retail
 sector was already fragile                          40,000
 before the pandemic,
 mainly challenged by the
 rising importance of
                                                     30,000
                                    Euro million

 e-commerce on consumer
 habits. Structural changes
 have been brought forward
 as confined consumers                               20,000
 have used online platforms
 to satisfy their essential
 needs. During the first                             10,000
 lockdown food sales
 peaked, following the
 closures of bars, cafes and                              0
 restaurants across
                                                               2013

                                                                           2014

                                                                                          2015

                                                                                                       2016

                                                                                                                      2017

                                                                                                                                 2018

                                                                                                                                            2019

                                                                                                                                                       2020
                                                                                                                                                       YTD
 countries. Sales of sports
 equipment, furniture and                                                                Q1      Q2    Q3     Q4
 electronics also showed

                                   Retail investment
 resilience.                                                                                                                                       Source: Savills

 Retail investment in the first
 three quarters of the year,
 held up well, despite the
 circumstances,
                                   After a strong start of the year, retail investment slowed down in
 underpinned by investor           Q2 and Q3 and is 11% below the five year average
 demand for food and
 convenience retail.                  Second lockdown weighs on                   extension of a number of Europe’s          sector’s ongoing transition. Q1
 We are in the middle of a         consumer confidence                            furlough programmes and                    was one of the strongest on record
 crisis and although some             Europe’s major cities remained              increased Eurozone household               with over €10.8bn invested in
 trends become more clear,         in the midst of a second lockdown,             savings ratios during Q2 2020 to           prime shopping centre portfolios
 it is still uncertain what will   further denting business                       25% of income, the potential for           and single assets, supermarket
 be the final impact on            confidence as the economic                     a quick consumer bounce-back               portfolios and retail warehouses.
 consumer behaviour and            recovery shifts from a ‘V’ shape to            appears limited.                           A number of mega deals took place
 eventually on retail itself.      the previous downside scenario                    In September, EU volume                 in Southern Europe, although
 The announcements of              of a ‘W’. Focus Economics latest               of retail trade fell by 2.0% on a          activity was spread across
 effective vaccines signal the     November 2020 Euro Area GDP                    monthly basis, following a 4.2%            markets with sizeable deals also
 “light at the end of the          growth forecasts indicate a                    increase in August. However, on            in Germany, France, the UK,
 tunnel”. In the meantime          slump to -7.9% yoy during 2020,                an annual basis retail trade was           Netherlands and Norway. The
 retailers and investors adapt     with a 5.3% yoy recovery in 2021.              2.2% above last year’s levels. This        supply of product has been driven
 their strategies to the new       Forecasts could be revised up,                 has been supported by online               by investors who are aiming to
 normal.                           following the announcements of                 activity (17.4% yoy), but also             reduce their exposure to the retail
                                   the effective vaccines, that could             electrical goods and furniture             sector and owner-occupiers who
                                   be distributed as early as next year.          (10% yoy), electronics and books           are trying to raise capital through
                                      Consumer confidence again                   (2.9% yoy) and food (2.9% yoy).            sales and leasebacks.
                                   dropped in October from -13.9                                                                In the second quarter we
                                   to -15.5 as a result of reinstated               Mixed trends in retail                   were already in the heart of the
                                   lockdowns and gloomier                         investment                                 pandemic and after a lockdown
                                   sentiment over the economic                      The trends in the retail                 that has caused major disruption
                                   outlook, hindering planned                     investment market have been                to retail formats that sell non-
  Eri Mitsostergiou                retail expenditure. Despite the                diverse this year, reflecting the          essential goods. Retail investment
  Director
  European Research
  +30 6946 500 104
  emitso@savills.com
                                                     Supply of product has been driven by investors who are aiming to
                                                   reduce their exposure to the retail sector and owner-occupiers who
                                                   are trying to raise capital through sales and leasebacks.

savills.com/research                                                  2
Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook - Savills
European Retail Investment

                         17%                   Is the share of total real estate investment in our
                                               survey captured by retail between Q1 and Q3 this
                                               year

                      recorded the lowest quarter since       of the activity, UK for 19% and           more resilient - as in many places
Retail trade was
                      2013 at €4.9bn. Ongoing portfolio       France for 14%. It is worth noting        in Europe.
2.2% up yoy in
September,
                      deals in France, Germany, the UK        that activity in Germany, France,            Supermarket transactions were
underpinned by        and Poland kept market activity         Sweden, Portugal and Spain has            also above the five year average in
17.4% yoy rise in     going.                                  already exceeded last year’s levels.      Poland (64%), Italy (76%), while
online activity          The third quarter, although it                                                 in the UK the sector had already
                      was still the lowest since 2013, it        Supermarket and convenience            picked up significantly over the past
                      was 5% above Q2 at close to €5.1bn.     on top of investors list                  two years and sustained its high
                      The transactions' list was led this        In Germany, the sectors that           levels of activity at over €1.1bn.
                      time by portfolio transactions          have registered the highest                  Total supermarket investment
                      of retail parks/warehouses and          increase in Q1-Q3 2020 compared           in the countries we monitor was
                      supermarkets in France, Spain,          to their five year average (full          close to €5.2bn in the beginning of
                      Italy and the UK. On an annual          year) were Cash&Carry (€819m,             Q4, 40% up yoy. The lions’ share
                      basis, Q3 was down across all           307%), Supermarkets (€2.2bn,              was captured by Germany (€2.2bn),
Q1-Q3 2020 retail
                      markets by 35%, with the only           197%), Shopping centres (€957m,           followed by the UK (€1.2bn) and
investment volume
amounted to
                      exception being the UK, where           106%), Discounters (€536, 83%),           Spain (€608m). Between 2013 and
€20.9bn, 11% below    a total of €1.65bn worth of retail      Department stores (€2.25bn,               2019 supermarkets (including
the five year         transactions were completed             62%) and DIY stores (€486, 60%).          hypermarkets and discounters)
average.              in Q3 this year, 128% above last        Investor confidence in the German         accounted for no more than 7%
                      year’s level. Supermarket portfolio     market has been further enhanced          of total retail investment. In 2019
                      transactions, but also retail           this year, as the economy is holding      their share increased to 19% and in
                      warehouse and shopping centre           up better than other countries            2020 jumped to 23%.
                      sales underpinned the activity.         during the health crisis.                    If we combine supermarket and
                         All in all, Q1-Q3 2020 retail           The Iberian markets saw €608m          retail warehousing investment,
                      investment volume amounted to           of Supermarket/Hypermarket deals          which broadly represents the
                      €20.9bn, compared to €20.8bn last       up to early Q4, which was 120%            convenience sector, we will observe
Supermarket           year and was 11% below the five         above the full year five year average.    that they account for 40% of the
investment in the     year average. Retail maintained its     Retail warehouse investment               activity since the beginning of the
countries we          proportion of the total real estate     activity was 36% above the five year      year, compared to 22% in 2013.
monitor was close     investment in our survey area           average at €179m, while shopping          Conversely, shopping centres
to €5.2bn in the      at 17%, compared to a five year         centres were 53% below the trend,         accounted for 44% of the activity
beginning of Q4,
                      average of 18% and above last year’s    despite the large deals that took         in 2013 and their share has dropped
40% up yoy.
                      16%. It is worth noting however,        place in Q1. During the lockdown          to 25% in 2020, reflecting the
                      that some of the retail assets          the food retailers increased their        opposite fortunes of the two market
                      transacted, may be repurposed and       turnover (eg Mercadona), while            segments during the past years,
                      change use in the future.               post lockdown retail parks/retail         which have been accelerated by the
                         Germany accounted for 30%            warehouse concepts, have been             pandemic.

Retail investment
                      European retail investment share by country Q1-Q3 2020 The core markets
activity in           accounted for almost two thirds of the activity.
Germany, France,
                                                        Czech Republic        Greece Norway            Poland
Sweden, Portugal
                                                              1%                1%     1%                3%
and Spain has
already exceeded                                                                                 Finland
                                                                                                   3% Portugal
last year’s levels.
                                                                                                         5%
                                                                                                           Sweden
                                                                                                             5%
                                                             Germany
                                                               30%
                                                                                                         Italy
                                                                                                          5%

                                                                                                 Netherlands
The share of                                                                                         6%
shopping centre
investment
dropped from 44%                                                                                       Spain
                                                                                                        7%
in 2013 to 25% in
2020                                                               UK
                                                                   19%                  France
                                                                                         14%

                                                                                                                                Source: Savills

                                                        3
European Retail Investment

European supermarket investment UK, Germany, Spain and Italy
accounted for 92% of the activity
                                    6,000

                                    5,000

                                    4,000
 Euro million

                                    3,000

                                    2,000

                                       1,000

                                            0
                                                   2013

                                                                2014

                                                                          2015

                                                                                     2016

                                                                                               2017

                                                                                                          2018

                                                                                                                     2019

                                                                                                                                 2020
                               Czech Republic          France              Germany             Greece                Italy

                               Netherlands             Norway              Poland              Portugal              Romania

                               Spain                   Sweden              UK                  Hungary

                                                                                                                             Source: Savills

Convenience retail vs Shopping centre investment Convenience retail
proves to be more resilient in times of uncertainty
                                    70%

                                    60%
 Share of total retail investment

                                    50%

                                    40%

                                    30%

                                    20%

                                    10%

                                       0%
                                                2013

                                                            2014

                                                                        2015

                                                                                    2016

                                                                                              2017

                                                                                                          2018

                                                                                                                     2019

                                                                                                                                 2020

                                                                   Convenience         Shopping centres

                                                                                                                             Source: Savills

                                    40%
                                                           The share of total retail investment captured by supermarkets, retail
                                                           warehouses, retail parks and discounters, since the beginning of the
                                                           year.

                                                                                                                                               Photo by Irina Lo on
                                                                                                                                               Unsplash

savills.com/research                                                                                             4
European Retail Investment

Prime retail yields in an early upswing stage of the                                                                                                                                                                   RETAIL YIELDS ARE                    prime achievable yields at 6.75%.
cycle                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MOVING OUT                           We expect yield softening to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            continue next year, especially in
         8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       It should not come as a surprise     the markets with higher supply
         7%                                                                                                                                                                                                            the pick-up in activity in the       of retail space, such as Germany,
         6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       UK market lately, as it is the       Belgium, Netherlands and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       market that has experienced          Sweden.
         5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the strongest prime retail yield
         4%                                                                                                                                                                                                            correction over the past three       Retail warehousing yields moved
         3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       years. Prime shopping centre         out overall more modestly, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       yields have moved out by 250bps      average prime retail warehousing
         2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       since their latest peak (post-GFC)   yield in Q3 was at 5.94%
         1%                                                                                                                                                                                                            and by 125bps only the past four     compared to 5.67% a year ago.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       quarters. The prime shopping         The countries with the most
        0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       centre yield in Q3 reached 6.75%,    significant outward yield shifts
                  11 Q1
                 11 Q3
                 12 Q1
                12 Q3
               07 Q1
               07 Q3
               08 Q1
               08 Q3
               09 Q1
               09 Q3

               14 Q3
                 10 Q1
               10 Q3

                 13 Q1
                13 Q3
                 14 Q1

                 15 Q1
                15 Q3
                 16 Q1
                16 Q3
                 17 Q1
                17 Q3
                 18 Q1
                18 Q3
                 19 Q1
                19 Q3
               20 Q1
               20 Q3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       very close to the past cycle’s       yoy were Ireland (100bps to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       trough.                              5%), UK (50bps to 6.75%) and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            France (50bps, 5.5%), while
              Retail Warehouses / Parks                                                          Shopping Centres                                                    High Streets                                      The other markets where prime        in a few markets prime retail
                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Savills                 shopping centre yields have          warehousing yields moved in,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       corrected substantially over the     namely in Amsterdam (-50bps,
Post GFC prime shopping centre yields Peak, trough                                                                                                                                                                     past year are Germany (100 bps       6.5%) and Helsinki (-5bps,
and current levels                                                                                                                                                                                                     to 5.0%), Ireland (100 bps to        6.2%). They remained stable in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5.5%) and France (100 bps to         Athens (7.25%), Lisbon (6.5%)
        10%                                                                                                                                                                                                            5.0%), while across all markets      and Oslo (5.25%). Overall retail
        9%                                                                                                                                                                                                             prime shopping centre yields         warehousing and retail parks,
        8%                                                                                                                                                                                                             moved out by between 20bps           fared better this crisis, as post
        7%                                                                                                                                                                                                             and 75bps yoy.                       lockdown consumers felt safer
        6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  shopping in these retail formats,
        5%                                                                                                                                                                                                             If we use the previous cycle as      which offer convenience, easy
        4%                                                                                                                                                                                                             a benchmark, we will notice          car access, parking and spacious
        3%                                                                                                                                                                                                             that on average the peak of the      indoor and outdoor shopping and
        2%                                                                                                                                                                                                             average prime shopping centre        leisure areas.
         1%                                                                                                                                                                                                            yield pre-GFC was at 4.7%.
        0%                                                                                                                                                                                                             After the Global Financial Crisis    Regarding prime supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (GFC), prime yields moved out        yields, a sector with high
                                                                                                                                                                                        UK
                   Denmark

                                                                                                                                                                                                Greece
                                                                                                             Portugal
                             Belgium

                                          Sweden

                                                             Germany

                                                                        France

                                                                                                                        Oslo

                                                                                                                                   Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                             Czech R
                                                   Finland

                                                                                    Spain

                                                                                                 Poland

                                                                                                                                                    Italy

                                                                                                                                                               Ireland

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Romania

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       by 162bps over the course of two     transaction activity lately, have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       years. Economic contraction,         compressed in some markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       rising unemployment and a            (Spain -100bps, Poland -100bps,
                                       Peak (post GFC)                               Trough (post GFC)                                               20 Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       drop in consumption, hit hard        UK -25bps, Check Republic
                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Savills                     retail performance and investor      -25bps, Germany -20bps) while
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       sentiment at the time. Post-GFC,     the rest have not experienced
Prime supermarket yields remain stable in most                                                                                                                                                                         prime SC yields reached once         significant yield movements yet.
markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                again an all-time low of 4.5% in     The lowest yields can be found in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q3 2018. Ever since they have        France (4% for urban store, 5.25%
   8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       been moving out, reaching            for regional store), Spain, Norway
   7%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5.23% in Q3 2020. This time          and the UK at 4.5%. Yields are still
   6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  investor sentiment has been          at 6% or higher in CEE markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       damaged by concerns over the         and the Netherlands (6.0%).
   5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       negative effects of e-commerce
   4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  on physical retail. Since the
   3%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  outbreak of the pandemic, these
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       concerns have been exacerbated,
   2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       as retailing has been one of the
   1%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  hardest hit sectors due to the
   0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  lockdowns.
                                                   UK

                                                                                                                                                                                       Greece
                                                                                                          Portugal

                                                                                                                                                                         Hungary
          France

                                       Norway

                                                              Germany

                                                                           Sweden

                                                                                                                                      Netherlands
                                                                                            Finland
                         Spain

                                                                                                                        Czech R.

                                                                                                                                                       Italy

                                                                                                                                                                                                Poland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       In Q3 2020, Denmark, Belgium,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sweden and Finland would still
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       command prime shopping centre
                                                                                 2019                 2020                                                                                                             yields below 5%, with the UK,
                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Savills                     Greece and Romania quoting

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
European Retail Investment

New scene for grocery shopping
 Supermarkets have been one of the most resilient sectors during this crisis, but they
 are not immune to disruption caused by online shopping.
   During times of uncertainty investors                                                                                                  retailing for as long as the virus spreads. It                                                                                                    on retailers’ margins. Grocers are seeking
are seeking sectors with defensive                                                                                                        is therefore predicted that more than 80%                                                                                                         alliances to achieve economies of scale and
characteristics and stable income streams.                                                                                                of consumers who bought food online for                                                                                                           develop concepts, which will attract and
Supermarkets have been one of the most                                                                                                    the first time during the pandemic want                                                                                                           retain customers. In Spain, Amazon has
resilient sectors during this crisis, as they                                                                                             to continue doing so. Newcomers in this                                                                                                           an agreement with DIA and in the UK with
were among the few retail formats that                                                                                                    field have had positive experiences with                                                                                                          Morrisons, for delivery and distribution in
remained open during the lockdowns.                                                                                                       the convenience and quality of fresh food.                                                                                                        different parts of the country. Following
Combined online and onsite sales have                                                                                                     This has helped them to overcome quality                                                                                                          the immense increase in demand for home
driven turnover growth, compared to                                                                                                       concerns, which had previously deterred                                                                                                           delivery during the lockdown, some retailers
previous years.                                                                                                                           them from shopping online.                                                                                                                        have partnered with delivery companies. In
   Food retailing has also remained largely                                                                                                  Improvement of online shopping                                                                                                                 Spain, Glovo has signed agreements with
immune to digital disruption—until recently.                                                                                              experience has become one of the main                                                                                                             Carrefour and in Dublin Aldi has signed an
Although generally consumers prefer to shop                                                                                               priorities of grocery groups. In Spain,                                                                                                           agreement with Deliveroo. In the UK Aldi is
fresh products in physical stores, since the                                                                                              Mercadona invested €20 million in updating                                                                                                        also in cooperation with Deliveroo, which
outbreak of the pandemic online food sales                                                                                                its online sales website already in 2018 and                                                                                                      started in May, was extended to 130 shops
have grown strongly around the world. In                                                                                                  has recently set up a 15,000 sq m distribution                                                                                                    recently and more are expected to follow.
China, for example, Carrefour's deliveries for                                                                                            centre exclusively for online services. El                                                                                                           From a real estate perspective, grocers are
the New Year, which took place a few weeks                                                                                                Corte Inglés and Carrefour offer deliveries                                                                                                       getting more value from their existing stores
after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased                                                                                             in less than two hours, or collection from                                                                                                        by using them in some areas as fulfilment
by 600%. The situation in Europe is no                                                                                                    stores. The Schwarz Group, which owns Lidl,                                                                                                       centres for last mile delivery. Additionally,
different: in Italy and Spain, the number of                                                                                              has bought one of the largest e-commerce                                                                                                          they develop pick-up stations, drive-in
e-food users doubled and in Germany, sales                                                                                                sites in Germany. In Italy, discounter Penny                                                                                                      counters for Click & Collect services and
in online food retailing in the second quarter                                                                                            is experimenting with an online delivery                                                                                                          even micro-fulfilment centres attached to
of the year rose by 90% compared to 2019.                                                                                                 service in Milan and Catania, Sicily, called                                                                                                      the stores. The improvement of their online
   According to a survey of PwC in May, more                                                                                              "Penny a Casa”. Likewise, UK grocery                                                                                                              services and the wider customer reach they
than a quarter of all European consumers in                                                                                               retailer Sainsbury's has announced that it                                                                                                        achieve, will also allow them to consolidate
urban areas (28%) bought food mainly online                                                                                               will continue to expand its online offering                                                                                                       their network of stores and focus on new
during the first lockdown. And the longer                                                                                                 in the coming months and already delivers                                                                                                         expansion strategies, such as convenience
the pandemic lasts, the greater the effect of                                                                                             700,000 orders per week, twice as many as                                                                                                         stores or additional services, such as catering
this new habit is likely to be, especially since                                                                                          before the start of the pandemic.                                                                                                                 and others. In the following section we
online trading seems even more convenient                                                                                                    The rising investment in omnichannel                                                                                                           discuss some of the latest trends that have an
than it already is, in view of the measures                                                                                               strategies and the costs related to                                                                                                               impact on food retailer’s space requirements.
of social distancing that apply to physical                                                                                               e-commerce and logistics, put pressure

Revenues of the leading companies in the food retail sector in Europe in 2018 and 2020 Most
grocers will see their revenue grow this year
       140,000
       130,000
                  Gross revenue in million Euros

       120,000
        110,000
       100,000
        90,000
        80,000
        70,000
        60,000
        50,000
        40,000
        30,000
        20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Asda (GB/Walmart)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Casino (F)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Conad (IT)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Magnit (RUS)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Système U (F)
                                                                        Amazon (US)

                                                                                                                               Carrefour (F)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mercadona (ESP)
                                                                                                       Tesco (UK)

                                                                                                                    Aldi (D)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Intermarché (F)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ahold Delhaize
                                                                                      Rewe Group (D)

                                                                                                                                                                  E. Leclerc (F)

                                                                                                                                                                                     Auchan (F)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Metro AG (D)
                                                   Schwarz-Gruppe (D)

                                                                                                                                               Edeka-Gruppe (D)

                                                                                                                                                                                                  J. Sainsbury (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         X5 Retail Group (RUS)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                COOP (CH)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (NL/BEL)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: LZ Retailytics, via Statista

savills.com/research                                                                                                                                                                                                               6
European Retail Investment

  Buy online, pick-up elsewhere
Click & Collect, Click & Drive or Pedestrian Drives are some of the delivery formulas that are
gaining more weight every day. The aim is to make shopping easier for the customers by
adapting to their lifestyle. In Spain, BonÁrea supermarkets offer the possibility of delivering
the products in boxes so that they can be picked up later during the day and at a time that is
most convenient for the customer. In Europe, home delivery systems are already being tested
at times when the customer is not there (While you’re away) or in the boot of their cars.
In France 68% of the consumers that shopped online in 2020 chose a Pick-up & Go location
for their orders, while 28% opted for Click & Collect directly in the physical store (Statista
based on FEVAD,CSA). In Italy, the volume of Click & Collect tripled in February (Nielsen).
Esselunga is developing its Click & Collect service (Click & go locker) by allocating lockers in
supermarkets for this purpose (also suitable for refrigerated food) in order to pick up in store.
Additionally it is developing the Click and go concept along busy commuting routes, with
space where people can drive through and pick up their shopping, without stepping out of the
car.
In the UK, Aldi will expand its Click & Collect service from the current 18 to 200 shops by
Christmas, serving around a quarter of its 900 shops. In Germany discounter Netto is trying
out a pick-up service while supermarket REWE is opening hundreds of Click & Collect pop-up
stations.
The Click & Drive format is also gaining ground, as it saves retailers from home deliveries and
the costs associated with the last mile delivery. Instead they invest in drive-in locations where
consumers can pick up their goods without having to get out of their cars. This concept has
been established in France already for more than a decade by supermarket retailers such as
Auchan, Intermarché, Leclerc, Cora, Carrefour and Casino. The model has since been very
successful and the number of drive-in stores was still expanding over the past two years.

  Downsizing for convenience
During the lockdown periods, smaller (
European Retail Investment

                                                                       During the first three
                                                                       quarters of the year,
                                                                    European SLB amounted to
                                                                      approximately €1.2bn

Volume and share of sale and leaseback transactions More than half of the retail SLB deals this
year were concentrated in Spain and France

                 8.0                                                                                                                                   12%
                 7.5
                 7.0
                 6.5                                                                                                                                   10%
                 6.0
                 5.5                                                                                                                                   8%
                 5.0
                 4.5
  Euro billion

                 4.0                                                                                                                                   6%
                 3.5
                 3.0
                 2.5                                                                                                                                   4%
                 2.0
                  1.5                                                                                                                                  2%
                  1.0
                 0.5
                 0.0                                                                                                                                   0%
                        2007

                               2008

                                      2009

                                               2010

                                                        2011

                                                                 2012

                                                                         2013

                                                                                     2014

                                                                                             2015

                                                                                                      2016

                                                                                                               2017

                                                                                                                        2018

                                                                                                                                 2019

                                                                                                                                          2020 to Q3
                                                                                                                        Source: Savills based on RCA data

Sale and leaseback
Sale and leasebacks can unlock capital that could be reinvested in the core businesses
of retailers. Activity has already been growing over the past two years.
Rent collection and rental negotiations                                         The number of SLB deals from non-food retailers with strong covenants
   The capital required for these investments can be easily raised              is also slowly rising. Sectors such as DIY, gardening centres and home
through sales and leasebacks. Several supermarket chains have shown             improvement, which by essence, need both a physical and an online
a preference in owning their assets where possible, or this has been            presence are typically good targets.
the way through development to secure the desired spots for their                  Historical data shows two large waves of retail SLB transactions.
expansion. Currently they can unlock this capital and take advantage of         The first one in 2007, before the GFC, led by strong core investors’
the high investor appetite for this product.                                    demand. Retailers were easily convinced by rocketing levels of
   During the first three quarters of the year, European retail sales and       pricing. The second wave in 2010, led by retailers’ distressed sales,
leaseback (SLB) amounted to approximately €1.2bn. This is 46% down              predominantly acquired by opportunistic investors. On average across
compared to the same period last year but in line with the past five-year       Europe and across retail formats, the average prime yield moved out
average. The third quarter recorded particularly strong activity in             by approx.130bps between Q1 2007 and Q1 2010. In Q3 2020, the prime
the sector with multiplying numbers of notable SLB deals transacted,            retail yield was at 4.86% on average. This is 45bps above its lowest level
including the Adeo European portfolio bought by Batipart and Covéa              recorded two years ago (4.40% in Q3 2018). The overall level of retail
for approx.€500m, the Mercadona portfolio in Spain bough by LCN                 SLB will increase significantly during the second part of 2021 when
Capital for €180m, the Eroski portfolio in Spain bought by WP Carey             downward price correction will be sufficient to highlight the retail risk
REIT for circa €87m and more recently still in Spain the Toys"R"Us six-         premium over other assets classes and attract opportunistic investors.
property portfolio acquired by Sports Directs for €34m. More than half
of the retail SLB was concentrated in Spain (39%) and France (20%),
followed by the UK (14%), Germany (10%) and Italy (7%).
   Retail SLB activity remained predominantly driven by the grocery
sector, although recent transactions suggest investors interest is
broadening to other business sectors such as DIY, as we anticipated in
our last report (May). The resilience of the food sector as clearly caught
investors’ attention, whilst for food retailers, Covid-19 has highlighted
the need to develop their omnichannel strategy by expanding delivery
and drive-in services, which requires investment; hence a good match.

savills.com/research                                                                8
European Retail Investment

          We expect retail investment activity next year to be driven by value-add opportunities and
          sales and leasebacks

                                                                                                                               OUTLOOK
                                                                                                                               Investor allocations towards retail have
                                                                                                                               been shifting for a while. We have been
                                                                                                                               observing the gradual loss of retail market
                                                                                                                               share, especially in the more mature
                                                                                                                               retail markets, where the e-commerce
                                                                                                                               penetration has already been high,
                                                                                                                               namely the US and the UK in Europe.
                                                                                                                               Some investors are choosing to reduce
                                                                                                                               their exposure to retail and others not
                                                                                                                               to increase their allocations at all, going
                                                                                                                               forward. However, there will be a price
                                                                                                                               point where retail real estate can become
                                                                                                                               attractive again. The future of problematic
                                                                                                                               retail schemes lies in redefining their
                                                                                                                               tenant mix and layout, introducing new
                                                                                                                               uses or repurposing them altogether.
                                                                                                                               These can be costly interventions,
                                                                                                                               requiring significant investment that
                                                                                                                               can draw back returns. However, these
                                                                                                                               may be the only ways to lead to a better
                                                                                                                               performing asset in the future and save
                                                                                                                               it from obsolescence. The key question
                                                                                              Photo by freestocks
                                                                                                                               is the level of repricing required in order
                                                                                              on Unsplash
                                                                                                                               to attract the value-add/opportunistic
                                                                                                                               investors who will be prepared to turn the
                                                                                                                               asset around.
Major retail investment transactions in Q1-Q3 2020                                                                             Retail includes a wide spectrum of
                                                                                                                               formats, from neighbourhood and city
          Country/                                                                                                             centre retail units, retail warehouses, retail
Date                          Property                     Buyer                            Seller                Price
            City                                                                                                               parks, factory outlets to neighbourhood
                                                                                                                               and regional shopping centres. Not all
                           Shopping centre        Crédit Agricole Assurances                                                   segments are suffering or will suffer
Q2 2020     France                                                             Unibail Rodamco Westfield         €1,100m
                              portfolio               and La Françaisee                                                        the same from the rise of e-commerce,
                                                                                                                               as still at least 80% of shopping will be
                         Shopping centre port-                                                                                 taking place in physical space, when
Q1 2020    Portugal                                     Allianz / Ello             Sonae Sierra / APG            €750m
                        folio (50% Sierra Fund)
                                                                                                                               life goes back to normality. We already
                                                                                                                               observe that some formats have more
                           Shopping centre        ECE Projektmanagement         ECE Projektmanagement
Q3 2020    Germany                                                                                               €500m         defensive characteristics than others,
                              portfolio               GmbH & Co. KG                 GmbH & Co. KG
                                                                                                                               such as supermarkets. This does not mean
                                                   Unilmmo-Deutschland /       Intu Properties PLC / Cana-
            Spain/          Puerto Venecia                                                                                     that it will be an easy ride for grocers
Q1 2020                                           Generali Shopping Center     da Pension Plan Investment        €475m
           Zaragoza        Shopping centre                                                                                     either. Consumer habits are changing,
                                                         Fund SCS.                       Board
                         Supermarket portfolio
                                                                                                                               demonstrating that some of the current
                                                                                 Private (La Villata / Es-
Q1 2020      Italy      (32.5% of shares owned            UniCredit                                              €435m         formats do not fit-for-purpose, requiring
                                                                                        selunga)
                         by private company)                                                                                   investment and innovation.
                                                                                                                               We believe that 2021 will bring some
Q2 2020    Germany      Supermarket portfolio            x+bricks AG             TLG Immobilien GmbH             €300m
                                                                                                                               more opportunities in the market, as
                                                                                                                               investors are restructuring their portfolios
Q3 2020     France       Retail park portfolio         Batipart/Covéa                 Groupe Adeo                €300m         and retailers are seeking to raise capital
                                                                                                                               through sales and leasebacks. Market
          Spain/Siero   Intu Asturias - Parque    ECE European Prime Shop- INTU (Canada Pension Plan                           activity will also offer more evidence on
Q1 2020                                                                                                          €290m
           Asturias           Principado              ping Centre Fund         Investment Board)                               pricing and will create more confidence
                                                                                                                               and trust between buyers and sellers. We
                           27 supermarkets
Q3 2020     Spain                                   LCN Capital Partners               Mercadona                 €180m         believe that yields will continue to soften,
                              Mercadona
                                                                                                                               especially for secondary assets that can
                                                                                                                               offer value-add opportunities. Prime yields
                                                                                                             Source: Savills   may also move out further, but we do not
                                                                                                                               expect them to reach the last cycle’s levels,
                                                                                                                               as economic activity and spending are
                                                                                                                               projected to bounce back in Q2 next year,
                                                                                                                               on the condition that a vaccine programme
                                                                                                                               will be rolled out in the beginning of 2021.

                                                                                       98
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Research                                                                                                                      Retail Agency                                 Retail Investment
Eri Mitsostergiou                           Lydia Brissy                                                                      Larry Brennan                                 Oliver Fraser-Looen
European Research                           European Research                                                                 Head of European Retail                       Head of European Retail
Director                                    Director                                                                          Agency                                        Investment
+30 (0) 694 650 0104                        +33 (0) 624 623 644                                                               +353 87 261 7115                              +44 7807 999582
emitso@savills.com                          lbrissy@savills.com                                                               larry.brennan@savills.ie                      oflooen@savills.com

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