Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook - Savills
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European Commercial – December 2020 S P OT L I G H T Retail investment Savills Research Focus on Food Photo by Giuseppe Argenziano on Unsplash Retail investment Food sector Sale and leaseback Outlook
European Retail Investment CHALLENGES AND European retail investment Q3 was the lowest since 2013, but 5% above Q2 OPPORTUNITIES IN RETAIL 50,000 The outlook of the retail sector was already fragile 40,000 before the pandemic, mainly challenged by the rising importance of 30,000 Euro million e-commerce on consumer habits. Structural changes have been brought forward as confined consumers 20,000 have used online platforms to satisfy their essential needs. During the first 10,000 lockdown food sales peaked, following the closures of bars, cafes and 0 restaurants across 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD countries. Sales of sports equipment, furniture and Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 electronics also showed Retail investment resilience. Source: Savills Retail investment in the first three quarters of the year, held up well, despite the circumstances, After a strong start of the year, retail investment slowed down in underpinned by investor Q2 and Q3 and is 11% below the five year average demand for food and convenience retail. Second lockdown weighs on extension of a number of Europe’s sector’s ongoing transition. Q1 We are in the middle of a consumer confidence furlough programmes and was one of the strongest on record crisis and although some Europe’s major cities remained increased Eurozone household with over €10.8bn invested in trends become more clear, in the midst of a second lockdown, savings ratios during Q2 2020 to prime shopping centre portfolios it is still uncertain what will further denting business 25% of income, the potential for and single assets, supermarket be the final impact on confidence as the economic a quick consumer bounce-back portfolios and retail warehouses. consumer behaviour and recovery shifts from a ‘V’ shape to appears limited. A number of mega deals took place eventually on retail itself. the previous downside scenario In September, EU volume in Southern Europe, although The announcements of of a ‘W’. Focus Economics latest of retail trade fell by 2.0% on a activity was spread across effective vaccines signal the November 2020 Euro Area GDP monthly basis, following a 4.2% markets with sizeable deals also “light at the end of the growth forecasts indicate a increase in August. However, on in Germany, France, the UK, tunnel”. In the meantime slump to -7.9% yoy during 2020, an annual basis retail trade was Netherlands and Norway. The retailers and investors adapt with a 5.3% yoy recovery in 2021. 2.2% above last year’s levels. This supply of product has been driven their strategies to the new Forecasts could be revised up, has been supported by online by investors who are aiming to normal. following the announcements of activity (17.4% yoy), but also reduce their exposure to the retail the effective vaccines, that could electrical goods and furniture sector and owner-occupiers who be distributed as early as next year. (10% yoy), electronics and books are trying to raise capital through Consumer confidence again (2.9% yoy) and food (2.9% yoy). sales and leasebacks. dropped in October from -13.9 In the second quarter we to -15.5 as a result of reinstated Mixed trends in retail were already in the heart of the lockdowns and gloomier investment pandemic and after a lockdown sentiment over the economic The trends in the retail that has caused major disruption outlook, hindering planned investment market have been to retail formats that sell non- Eri Mitsostergiou retail expenditure. Despite the diverse this year, reflecting the essential goods. Retail investment Director European Research +30 6946 500 104 emitso@savills.com Supply of product has been driven by investors who are aiming to reduce their exposure to the retail sector and owner-occupiers who are trying to raise capital through sales and leasebacks. savills.com/research 2
European Retail Investment 17% Is the share of total real estate investment in our survey captured by retail between Q1 and Q3 this year recorded the lowest quarter since of the activity, UK for 19% and more resilient - as in many places Retail trade was 2013 at €4.9bn. Ongoing portfolio France for 14%. It is worth noting in Europe. 2.2% up yoy in September, deals in France, Germany, the UK that activity in Germany, France, Supermarket transactions were underpinned by and Poland kept market activity Sweden, Portugal and Spain has also above the five year average in 17.4% yoy rise in going. already exceeded last year’s levels. Poland (64%), Italy (76%), while online activity The third quarter, although it in the UK the sector had already was still the lowest since 2013, it Supermarket and convenience picked up significantly over the past was 5% above Q2 at close to €5.1bn. on top of investors list two years and sustained its high The transactions' list was led this In Germany, the sectors that levels of activity at over €1.1bn. time by portfolio transactions have registered the highest Total supermarket investment of retail parks/warehouses and increase in Q1-Q3 2020 compared in the countries we monitor was supermarkets in France, Spain, to their five year average (full close to €5.2bn in the beginning of Italy and the UK. On an annual year) were Cash&Carry (€819m, Q4, 40% up yoy. The lions’ share basis, Q3 was down across all 307%), Supermarkets (€2.2bn, was captured by Germany (€2.2bn), Q1-Q3 2020 retail markets by 35%, with the only 197%), Shopping centres (€957m, followed by the UK (€1.2bn) and investment volume amounted to exception being the UK, where 106%), Discounters (€536, 83%), Spain (€608m). Between 2013 and €20.9bn, 11% below a total of €1.65bn worth of retail Department stores (€2.25bn, 2019 supermarkets (including the five year transactions were completed 62%) and DIY stores (€486, 60%). hypermarkets and discounters) average. in Q3 this year, 128% above last Investor confidence in the German accounted for no more than 7% year’s level. Supermarket portfolio market has been further enhanced of total retail investment. In 2019 transactions, but also retail this year, as the economy is holding their share increased to 19% and in warehouse and shopping centre up better than other countries 2020 jumped to 23%. sales underpinned the activity. during the health crisis. If we combine supermarket and All in all, Q1-Q3 2020 retail The Iberian markets saw €608m retail warehousing investment, investment volume amounted to of Supermarket/Hypermarket deals which broadly represents the €20.9bn, compared to €20.8bn last up to early Q4, which was 120% convenience sector, we will observe Supermarket year and was 11% below the five above the full year five year average. that they account for 40% of the investment in the year average. Retail maintained its Retail warehouse investment activity since the beginning of the countries we proportion of the total real estate activity was 36% above the five year year, compared to 22% in 2013. monitor was close investment in our survey area average at €179m, while shopping Conversely, shopping centres to €5.2bn in the at 17%, compared to a five year centres were 53% below the trend, accounted for 44% of the activity beginning of Q4, average of 18% and above last year’s despite the large deals that took in 2013 and their share has dropped 40% up yoy. 16%. It is worth noting however, place in Q1. During the lockdown to 25% in 2020, reflecting the that some of the retail assets the food retailers increased their opposite fortunes of the two market transacted, may be repurposed and turnover (eg Mercadona), while segments during the past years, change use in the future. post lockdown retail parks/retail which have been accelerated by the Germany accounted for 30% warehouse concepts, have been pandemic. Retail investment European retail investment share by country Q1-Q3 2020 The core markets activity in accounted for almost two thirds of the activity. Germany, France, Czech Republic Greece Norway Poland Sweden, Portugal 1% 1% 1% 3% and Spain has already exceeded Finland 3% Portugal last year’s levels. 5% Sweden 5% Germany 30% Italy 5% Netherlands The share of 6% shopping centre investment dropped from 44% Spain 7% in 2013 to 25% in 2020 UK 19% France 14% Source: Savills 3
European Retail Investment European supermarket investment UK, Germany, Spain and Italy accounted for 92% of the activity 6,000 5,000 4,000 Euro million 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Czech Republic France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Spain Sweden UK Hungary Source: Savills Convenience retail vs Shopping centre investment Convenience retail proves to be more resilient in times of uncertainty 70% 60% Share of total retail investment 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Convenience Shopping centres Source: Savills 40% The share of total retail investment captured by supermarkets, retail warehouses, retail parks and discounters, since the beginning of the year. Photo by Irina Lo on Unsplash savills.com/research 4
European Retail Investment Prime retail yields in an early upswing stage of the RETAIL YIELDS ARE prime achievable yields at 6.75%. cycle MOVING OUT We expect yield softening to continue next year, especially in 8% It should not come as a surprise the markets with higher supply 7% the pick-up in activity in the of retail space, such as Germany, 6% UK market lately, as it is the Belgium, Netherlands and market that has experienced Sweden. 5% the strongest prime retail yield 4% correction over the past three Retail warehousing yields moved 3% years. Prime shopping centre out overall more modestly, the yields have moved out by 250bps average prime retail warehousing 2% since their latest peak (post-GFC) yield in Q3 was at 5.94% 1% and by 125bps only the past four compared to 5.67% a year ago. quarters. The prime shopping The countries with the most 0% centre yield in Q3 reached 6.75%, significant outward yield shifts 11 Q1 11 Q3 12 Q1 12 Q3 07 Q1 07 Q3 08 Q1 08 Q3 09 Q1 09 Q3 14 Q3 10 Q1 10 Q3 13 Q1 13 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q1 15 Q3 16 Q1 16 Q3 17 Q1 17 Q3 18 Q1 18 Q3 19 Q1 19 Q3 20 Q1 20 Q3 very close to the past cycle’s yoy were Ireland (100bps to trough. 5%), UK (50bps to 6.75%) and France (50bps, 5.5%), while Retail Warehouses / Parks Shopping Centres High Streets The other markets where prime in a few markets prime retail Source: Savills shopping centre yields have warehousing yields moved in, corrected substantially over the namely in Amsterdam (-50bps, Post GFC prime shopping centre yields Peak, trough past year are Germany (100 bps 6.5%) and Helsinki (-5bps, and current levels to 5.0%), Ireland (100 bps to 6.2%). They remained stable in 5.5%) and France (100 bps to Athens (7.25%), Lisbon (6.5%) 10% 5.0%), while across all markets and Oslo (5.25%). Overall retail 9% prime shopping centre yields warehousing and retail parks, 8% moved out by between 20bps fared better this crisis, as post 7% and 75bps yoy. lockdown consumers felt safer 6% shopping in these retail formats, 5% If we use the previous cycle as which offer convenience, easy 4% a benchmark, we will notice car access, parking and spacious 3% that on average the peak of the indoor and outdoor shopping and 2% average prime shopping centre leisure areas. 1% yield pre-GFC was at 4.7%. 0% After the Global Financial Crisis Regarding prime supermarket (GFC), prime yields moved out yields, a sector with high UK Denmark Greece Portugal Belgium Sweden Germany France Oslo Netherlands Czech R Finland Spain Poland Italy Ireland Romania by 162bps over the course of two transaction activity lately, have years. Economic contraction, compressed in some markets rising unemployment and a (Spain -100bps, Poland -100bps, Peak (post GFC) Trough (post GFC) 20 Q3 drop in consumption, hit hard UK -25bps, Check Republic Source: Savills retail performance and investor -25bps, Germany -20bps) while sentiment at the time. Post-GFC, the rest have not experienced Prime supermarket yields remain stable in most prime SC yields reached once significant yield movements yet. markets again an all-time low of 4.5% in The lowest yields can be found in Q3 2018. Ever since they have France (4% for urban store, 5.25% 8% been moving out, reaching for regional store), Spain, Norway 7% 5.23% in Q3 2020. This time and the UK at 4.5%. Yields are still 6% investor sentiment has been at 6% or higher in CEE markets damaged by concerns over the and the Netherlands (6.0%). 5% negative effects of e-commerce 4% on physical retail. Since the 3% outbreak of the pandemic, these concerns have been exacerbated, 2% as retailing has been one of the 1% hardest hit sectors due to the 0% lockdowns. UK Greece Portugal Hungary France Norway Germany Sweden Netherlands Finland Spain Czech R. Italy Poland In Q3 2020, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden and Finland would still command prime shopping centre 2019 2020 yields below 5%, with the UK, Source: Savills Greece and Romania quoting 5
European Retail Investment New scene for grocery shopping Supermarkets have been one of the most resilient sectors during this crisis, but they are not immune to disruption caused by online shopping. During times of uncertainty investors retailing for as long as the virus spreads. It on retailers’ margins. Grocers are seeking are seeking sectors with defensive is therefore predicted that more than 80% alliances to achieve economies of scale and characteristics and stable income streams. of consumers who bought food online for develop concepts, which will attract and Supermarkets have been one of the most the first time during the pandemic want retain customers. In Spain, Amazon has resilient sectors during this crisis, as they to continue doing so. Newcomers in this an agreement with DIA and in the UK with were among the few retail formats that field have had positive experiences with Morrisons, for delivery and distribution in remained open during the lockdowns. the convenience and quality of fresh food. different parts of the country. Following Combined online and onsite sales have This has helped them to overcome quality the immense increase in demand for home driven turnover growth, compared to concerns, which had previously deterred delivery during the lockdown, some retailers previous years. them from shopping online. have partnered with delivery companies. In Food retailing has also remained largely Improvement of online shopping Spain, Glovo has signed agreements with immune to digital disruption—until recently. experience has become one of the main Carrefour and in Dublin Aldi has signed an Although generally consumers prefer to shop priorities of grocery groups. In Spain, agreement with Deliveroo. In the UK Aldi is fresh products in physical stores, since the Mercadona invested €20 million in updating also in cooperation with Deliveroo, which outbreak of the pandemic online food sales its online sales website already in 2018 and started in May, was extended to 130 shops have grown strongly around the world. In has recently set up a 15,000 sq m distribution recently and more are expected to follow. China, for example, Carrefour's deliveries for centre exclusively for online services. El From a real estate perspective, grocers are the New Year, which took place a few weeks Corte Inglés and Carrefour offer deliveries getting more value from their existing stores after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased in less than two hours, or collection from by using them in some areas as fulfilment by 600%. The situation in Europe is no stores. The Schwarz Group, which owns Lidl, centres for last mile delivery. Additionally, different: in Italy and Spain, the number of has bought one of the largest e-commerce they develop pick-up stations, drive-in e-food users doubled and in Germany, sales sites in Germany. In Italy, discounter Penny counters for Click & Collect services and in online food retailing in the second quarter is experimenting with an online delivery even micro-fulfilment centres attached to of the year rose by 90% compared to 2019. service in Milan and Catania, Sicily, called the stores. The improvement of their online According to a survey of PwC in May, more "Penny a Casa”. Likewise, UK grocery services and the wider customer reach they than a quarter of all European consumers in retailer Sainsbury's has announced that it achieve, will also allow them to consolidate urban areas (28%) bought food mainly online will continue to expand its online offering their network of stores and focus on new during the first lockdown. And the longer in the coming months and already delivers expansion strategies, such as convenience the pandemic lasts, the greater the effect of 700,000 orders per week, twice as many as stores or additional services, such as catering this new habit is likely to be, especially since before the start of the pandemic. and others. In the following section we online trading seems even more convenient The rising investment in omnichannel discuss some of the latest trends that have an than it already is, in view of the measures strategies and the costs related to impact on food retailer’s space requirements. of social distancing that apply to physical e-commerce and logistics, put pressure Revenues of the leading companies in the food retail sector in Europe in 2018 and 2020 Most grocers will see their revenue grow this year 140,000 130,000 Gross revenue in million Euros 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Asda (GB/Walmart) Casino (F) Conad (IT) Magnit (RUS) Système U (F) Amazon (US) Carrefour (F) Mercadona (ESP) Tesco (UK) Aldi (D) Intermarché (F) Ahold Delhaize Rewe Group (D) E. Leclerc (F) Auchan (F) Metro AG (D) Schwarz-Gruppe (D) Edeka-Gruppe (D) J. Sainsbury (UK) X5 Retail Group (RUS) COOP (CH) (NL/BEL) Source: LZ Retailytics, via Statista savills.com/research 6
European Retail Investment Buy online, pick-up elsewhere Click & Collect, Click & Drive or Pedestrian Drives are some of the delivery formulas that are gaining more weight every day. The aim is to make shopping easier for the customers by adapting to their lifestyle. In Spain, BonÁrea supermarkets offer the possibility of delivering the products in boxes so that they can be picked up later during the day and at a time that is most convenient for the customer. In Europe, home delivery systems are already being tested at times when the customer is not there (While you’re away) or in the boot of their cars. In France 68% of the consumers that shopped online in 2020 chose a Pick-up & Go location for their orders, while 28% opted for Click & Collect directly in the physical store (Statista based on FEVAD,CSA). In Italy, the volume of Click & Collect tripled in February (Nielsen). Esselunga is developing its Click & Collect service (Click & go locker) by allocating lockers in supermarkets for this purpose (also suitable for refrigerated food) in order to pick up in store. Additionally it is developing the Click and go concept along busy commuting routes, with space where people can drive through and pick up their shopping, without stepping out of the car. In the UK, Aldi will expand its Click & Collect service from the current 18 to 200 shops by Christmas, serving around a quarter of its 900 shops. In Germany discounter Netto is trying out a pick-up service while supermarket REWE is opening hundreds of Click & Collect pop-up stations. The Click & Drive format is also gaining ground, as it saves retailers from home deliveries and the costs associated with the last mile delivery. Instead they invest in drive-in locations where consumers can pick up their goods without having to get out of their cars. This concept has been established in France already for more than a decade by supermarket retailers such as Auchan, Intermarché, Leclerc, Cora, Carrefour and Casino. The model has since been very successful and the number of drive-in stores was still expanding over the past two years. Downsizing for convenience During the lockdown periods, smaller (
European Retail Investment During the first three quarters of the year, European SLB amounted to approximately €1.2bn Volume and share of sale and leaseback transactions More than half of the retail SLB deals this year were concentrated in Spain and France 8.0 12% 7.5 7.0 6.5 10% 6.0 5.5 8% 5.0 4.5 Euro billion 4.0 6% 3.5 3.0 2.5 4% 2.0 1.5 2% 1.0 0.5 0.0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 to Q3 Source: Savills based on RCA data Sale and leaseback Sale and leasebacks can unlock capital that could be reinvested in the core businesses of retailers. Activity has already been growing over the past two years. Rent collection and rental negotiations The number of SLB deals from non-food retailers with strong covenants The capital required for these investments can be easily raised is also slowly rising. Sectors such as DIY, gardening centres and home through sales and leasebacks. Several supermarket chains have shown improvement, which by essence, need both a physical and an online a preference in owning their assets where possible, or this has been presence are typically good targets. the way through development to secure the desired spots for their Historical data shows two large waves of retail SLB transactions. expansion. Currently they can unlock this capital and take advantage of The first one in 2007, before the GFC, led by strong core investors’ the high investor appetite for this product. demand. Retailers were easily convinced by rocketing levels of During the first three quarters of the year, European retail sales and pricing. The second wave in 2010, led by retailers’ distressed sales, leaseback (SLB) amounted to approximately €1.2bn. This is 46% down predominantly acquired by opportunistic investors. On average across compared to the same period last year but in line with the past five-year Europe and across retail formats, the average prime yield moved out average. The third quarter recorded particularly strong activity in by approx.130bps between Q1 2007 and Q1 2010. In Q3 2020, the prime the sector with multiplying numbers of notable SLB deals transacted, retail yield was at 4.86% on average. This is 45bps above its lowest level including the Adeo European portfolio bought by Batipart and Covéa recorded two years ago (4.40% in Q3 2018). The overall level of retail for approx.€500m, the Mercadona portfolio in Spain bough by LCN SLB will increase significantly during the second part of 2021 when Capital for €180m, the Eroski portfolio in Spain bought by WP Carey downward price correction will be sufficient to highlight the retail risk REIT for circa €87m and more recently still in Spain the Toys"R"Us six- premium over other assets classes and attract opportunistic investors. property portfolio acquired by Sports Directs for €34m. More than half of the retail SLB was concentrated in Spain (39%) and France (20%), followed by the UK (14%), Germany (10%) and Italy (7%). Retail SLB activity remained predominantly driven by the grocery sector, although recent transactions suggest investors interest is broadening to other business sectors such as DIY, as we anticipated in our last report (May). The resilience of the food sector as clearly caught investors’ attention, whilst for food retailers, Covid-19 has highlighted the need to develop their omnichannel strategy by expanding delivery and drive-in services, which requires investment; hence a good match. savills.com/research 8
European Retail Investment We expect retail investment activity next year to be driven by value-add opportunities and sales and leasebacks OUTLOOK Investor allocations towards retail have been shifting for a while. We have been observing the gradual loss of retail market share, especially in the more mature retail markets, where the e-commerce penetration has already been high, namely the US and the UK in Europe. Some investors are choosing to reduce their exposure to retail and others not to increase their allocations at all, going forward. However, there will be a price point where retail real estate can become attractive again. The future of problematic retail schemes lies in redefining their tenant mix and layout, introducing new uses or repurposing them altogether. These can be costly interventions, requiring significant investment that can draw back returns. However, these may be the only ways to lead to a better performing asset in the future and save it from obsolescence. The key question Photo by freestocks is the level of repricing required in order on Unsplash to attract the value-add/opportunistic investors who will be prepared to turn the asset around. Major retail investment transactions in Q1-Q3 2020 Retail includes a wide spectrum of formats, from neighbourhood and city Country/ centre retail units, retail warehouses, retail Date Property Buyer Seller Price City parks, factory outlets to neighbourhood and regional shopping centres. Not all Shopping centre Crédit Agricole Assurances segments are suffering or will suffer Q2 2020 France Unibail Rodamco Westfield €1,100m portfolio and La Françaisee the same from the rise of e-commerce, as still at least 80% of shopping will be Shopping centre port- taking place in physical space, when Q1 2020 Portugal Allianz / Ello Sonae Sierra / APG €750m folio (50% Sierra Fund) life goes back to normality. We already observe that some formats have more Shopping centre ECE Projektmanagement ECE Projektmanagement Q3 2020 Germany €500m defensive characteristics than others, portfolio GmbH & Co. KG GmbH & Co. KG such as supermarkets. This does not mean Unilmmo-Deutschland / Intu Properties PLC / Cana- Spain/ Puerto Venecia that it will be an easy ride for grocers Q1 2020 Generali Shopping Center da Pension Plan Investment €475m Zaragoza Shopping centre either. Consumer habits are changing, Fund SCS. Board Supermarket portfolio demonstrating that some of the current Private (La Villata / Es- Q1 2020 Italy (32.5% of shares owned UniCredit €435m formats do not fit-for-purpose, requiring selunga) by private company) investment and innovation. We believe that 2021 will bring some Q2 2020 Germany Supermarket portfolio x+bricks AG TLG Immobilien GmbH €300m more opportunities in the market, as investors are restructuring their portfolios Q3 2020 France Retail park portfolio Batipart/Covéa Groupe Adeo €300m and retailers are seeking to raise capital through sales and leasebacks. Market Spain/Siero Intu Asturias - Parque ECE European Prime Shop- INTU (Canada Pension Plan activity will also offer more evidence on Q1 2020 €290m Asturias Principado ping Centre Fund Investment Board) pricing and will create more confidence and trust between buyers and sellers. We 27 supermarkets Q3 2020 Spain LCN Capital Partners Mercadona €180m believe that yields will continue to soften, Mercadona especially for secondary assets that can offer value-add opportunities. Prime yields Source: Savills may also move out further, but we do not expect them to reach the last cycle’s levels, as economic activity and spending are projected to bounce back in Q2 next year, on the condition that a vaccine programme will be rolled out in the beginning of 2021. 98
Savills Commercial Research We provide bespoke services for landowners, developers, occupiers and investors across the lifecycle of residential, commercial or mixed-use projects. We add value by providing our clients with research-backed advice and consultancy through our market-leading global research team. Research Retail Agency Retail Investment Eri Mitsostergiou Lydia Brissy Larry Brennan Oliver Fraser-Looen European Research European Research Head of European Retail Head of European Retail Director Director Agency Investment +30 (0) 694 650 0104 +33 (0) 624 623 644 +353 87 261 7115 +44 7807 999582 emitso@savills.com lbrissy@savills.com larry.brennan@savills.ie oflooen@savills.com Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
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