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RESPONSIBLE
INVESTMENT
QUARTERLY
Q1 2021
RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Columbia ...
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

                                    CONTENTS
                                    01 Foreword................................................3
                                    02 Portfolio manager’s viewpoint................7
                                    03 Country head focus –
                                       Switzerland..........................................11
                                    04 Funding Europe’s green
                                       infrastructure finance gap....................14
                                    05 Biden’s strong commitment
                                       on climate change...............................20
                                    06 Climate change, net zero and
                                       the employment myth..........................24

                                    Stewardship in action
                                    07 Voting Q1.............................................29
                                    08 Engagement highlights.........................30

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01 Foreword

                                           pandemic is forcing governments           investment. However, by some
                                           around the world to develop policies      estimates the world is currently on-
                                           not just for stimulating the global       trend to face a $15 trillion gap between
                                           economy, but also to respond to           the infrastructure investment needed
                                           climate change and to tackle the social   and the amount provided by 2040.1
                                           inequalities that have once again         The motivation to tackle this is clear.
                                           been highlighted by the spread of the
                                           virus. Many of these governments are      As the World Economic Forum has
                                           considering a tried-and-true method       noted2 on the supply side, when the
                                           to boost economies in the short term      equivalent of 1% of GDP is invested
                                           and provide wide societal benefits in     in infrastructure, economic output
                                           the long term, through infrastructure     increases by about 0.4% in the same

 Iain Richards
 Head of Global Responsible
 Investment Policy

As we have moved into 2021 and
look towards COP26, the 2021 United
Nations Climate Change Conference
in Glasgow in November, the degree
of focus around climate-related issues
and themes has only intensified.
This has equally been reflected in
aspects of our thematic research and
thinking. In this quarterly review you
will find insights from this work across
a range of topics.

Technologically innovative, sustainable
infrastructure can pave the way for an
inclusive post-Covid economic recovery.    Glasgow will host the UN Climate Change conference in November
The economic fallout caused by the         Source: iStock.

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    year and by 1.5% four years later.           The world is changing and not just         Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting
    Set against this context, in this issue of   because of climate change. We are          both the new political administration
    Responsible Investment Quarterly we          living through the Fourth Industrial       and growing investor demand, is both
    touch on Europe’s green infrastructure       Revolution as well as dealing with the     examining the need for better climate
    plans and the related financing needs        impacts of the Covid pandemic.             and other environmental, social and
    to provide an insight into a thematic        How governments and companies              governance (ESG) information,
    aspect of our research intensity.            respond to the change will have            as well as including a greater focus on
    We also touch on President Joe               significant implications economically,     these issues in its supervisory 2021
    Biden’s $2.25 trillion “American Jobs        competitively and for employment as        examination priorities.
    Plan” that, in some areas, goes beyond       well. The scale of change involved
    even his election campaign pledges.          creates uncertainty and concern            I hope this quarter’s report will help
                                                 for many. This was reflected in            provide insight into the types of issues
    We also look at a sector that                press headlines during the quarter         our thematic research covers.
    isn’t traditionally associated with          suggesting millions of jobs will be put
    environmental responsibility: aviation.      at risk from climate transition over the
    It currently consumes around 8%              next three decades. We disagree and
    of all oil, but rather than looking at       discuss some of the reasons why later
    solutions that would require extensive       in this report.
    infrastructure reorganisation, perhaps
    there is something more immediate            As the progress of sustainable
    that can be done. This gives an insight      finance reforms has continued
    into the breadth of our thinking around      around delegated regulations and
    ESG investing.                               technical standards in Europe,
                                                 a broader debate about international
    There’s an interesting dynamic playing       standards has been playing out.
    out in Switzerland as well, a country        The International Organization of
    regularly associated with finance, if not    Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has
    sustainable finance. But keen to not         been discussing the development
    get left behind in a rapidly changing        of an international framework for
    sphere, it is quietly working on                                                        Source:
                                                 sustainability reporting for public        1 https://www.smartbrief.com/original/2021/01/
    generating and implementing ways to          issuers with the International Financial      are-we-talking-about-infrastructure-right-way
    manage money sustainably. We look at         Reporting Standards Foundation
                                                                                            2 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/
                                                                                               coronavirus-covid-19-sustainable-infrastructure-
    some of the ways it is attempting this.      (IFRS). In the US the Securities and          investments-aid-recovery/

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02	Portfolio manager’s viewpoint

                                         consumed 8% of all oil,1 the equivalent             to alternative fuels such as hydrogen,
                                         of almost 7.5 million barrels a day.2               sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) or
                                         In 2020, Covid-19 grounded most                     electricity. Electric planes may have
                                         airlines leading to a 39% drop in                   a future in 25-30 years, but we don’t
                                         fuel consumption,3 but the long-term                yet have sufficient infrastructure to
                                         appetite for air travel will likely still           recharge electric vehicles on roads, or
                                         grow – mobility is important. Without               batteries with truly long ranges, so the
                                         policy intervention, however, planes                idea of electric planes remains some
                                         will continue to use fossil fuels, and it           way off. Hydrogen is an interesting
                                         is estimated that by 2050 the sector                prospect but, like electricity, requires
                                         could consume over 14 million barrels               a completely new infrastructure and
                                         a day, more oil than China consumed                 technology to make it work, both with
                                         in 2019 (Figure 1).                                 the aircraft themselves and at airports.
 Andrea Carzana                                                                              Although there is a drive to invest
                                         If the demand is to remain, it is surely            in solutions such as hydrogen and
 Portfolio Manager,                      better to look at changing how planes
 Threadneedle Sustainable Outcomes                                                           electricity, for now the focus is on SAF.
                                         are powered. This turns the spotlight
 Pan-European Equity strategy

                                         Figure 1: Aviation fuel demand and country oil demand

                                         Million barrels per day
We are now less than a decade out
from the self-imposed deadline set by    2050                                       14.2      U.S.                                            20.5
many companies to become carbon
neutral by 2030. Similarly, the 2050
deadline set by many countries to        2040                                10.7            China                           13.7

achieve this is looming into view.
Big strides will need to be made in      2030                          8.1                   India        4.8
order to achieve these targets.
But how?
                                         2020           4.5                                  Japan      3.8
One sector that consumes massive
amounts of natural resources, but in
our opinion boasts the opportunity       2019                      7.3                     Germany 2.5

for realistic change, is aviation.
                                                            Aviation fuel demand                              Total oil product demand 2019
Successfully reducing emissions
would be a big win. In 2019 the sector   Source: BloombergNEF, 2020.

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    Straight in the tank                       In 2019, aviation fuel was a 300 million    Mandates
                                               tonne global market.6 The International
    We believe a major differentiation         Air Transport Association’s fuel forum      SAFs remain expensive, but
    between airlines and cars is the           projects a 420 million tonne market by      mandated blending could force the
    massive amount of capital tied up in       2030,7 and the World Economic Forum         issue into the mainstream by the
    existing planes – these are assets         predicts a rise to 510 million tonnes in    mid-2020s. This means governments
    that are viable for the next 20-30 years   2040.8 The European Union accounts          forcing a certain proportion of SAF
    and simply replacing them would be         for around 20% of this total, and is        fuel use by airlines. Some countries
    prohibitively expensive. Alongside         targeting 14% of this amount for use        are already moving on this: Sweden is
    this, the technology is too far out to     with SAF, creating 11 million tonnes of     mandating a minimum of 0.5% of SAF
    make them run on different fuels,          demand by 2030 in Europe alone.9            in 2021, and France 1% in 2022.12
    so the need is for something that                                                      Holland is considering regulation
    can go in the existing tank. SAF can.      But it is not the size of the market        which would see a 14% blend by
    SAF is made from waste destined for        alone that makes SAF an exciting            2030.13 In the EU, the ReFuelEU
    landfill, such as used cooking oil and     prospect. There is an increasing            initiative is set to be announced in
    discarded animal fat, blended with         desire within the aviation industry for     July 2021, and will likely have a target
    existing fossil fuel.                      reform and regulation. First, firms that    of blending levels of 2% in 2025 and
                                               have traditionally been devoted to          5% in 2030,14 while President Biden
    Although the SAF market is small and       fossil fuels, such as oil refineries, are   is being urged to introduce a pan-US
    early-phase, we see opportunities for      exploring SAFs – after all, they too have   1% mandate.15 Once mandates are
    investors with a number of companies       sustainability targets to hit. Second,      introduced and begin to rise, and
    getting a foothold, among them             the pandemic has offered a glimpse of       regulations improve, scalability will
    Neste,4 the world’s largest producer       a world with lower carbon emissions,        lead to reduced costs and even greater
    of renewable diesel and sustainable        but also made us realise not enough         adoption – a virtuous circle.
    aviation fuel refined from waste and       is being done, which has pushed
    residues,5 and renewable solutions         sustainability up airlines’ agendas.        On top of government support,
    firm UPM.                                  Numerous airlines now say they are          SAF requires end-consumer pressure to
                                               aiming to reduce their emission to          develop. Passengers and corporates,
                                                                                           under pressure from increasingly
    Market size and penetration                zero by 2050, and achieving carbon
                                                                                           ESG-aware investors, can engage with
                                               neutrality by 2035 – as JetBlue’s CFO
    In our view, sustainable aviation is       said, they would rather be driving the      airline companies to encourage them
    the only way the aviation sector’s         bus than be hit by it.10 Neste has          to reduce their carbon footprint and will
    emissions can be brought down in           signed deals with a number of airlines      accept temporary price hikes owing to
    the medium term, providing a bridge        during the pandemic to increase the         the cost. A 2% blend for a three-hour
    to technologies such as hydrogen and       use of SAFs, including All Nippon           flight is estimated to add US$2 to the
    electric planes which are decades out.     Airlines.11 But the game changer is         price of a ticket.16
    This creates a massive market.             regulation.

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Investor opportunities                    To use an aviation analogy, SAFs                       5 https://www.neste.com/about-neste/who-we-are/
                                                                                                    business#9507dabd
                                          are taxiing on the runway, but with                    6 IATA, 2021.
For us investors this is an exciting      technology, the right political will,                  7 IATA, 2021.
opportunity. We like to explore           shareholder pressure and mandate                       8 World Economic Forum, 2021.
                                                                                                 9 Neste management presentation, February 2021.
themes that play into the UN              development, they can take off.                        10 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable
Sustainable Development Goals                                                                       Change, 13 May 2021.
(UN SDGs).17 The SAF market is directly                                                          11 https://biofuels-news.com/news/neste-and-all-
                                                                                                    nippon-airways-collaborate-on-first-supply-of-
linked to a number of these:                                                                        sustainable-aviation-fuel-in-asia/
the Sustainable Transport element of                                                                26 October 2020.
                                                                                                 12 ISCC Global Sustainability Conference,
UN SDG 11, Make cities and human                                                                    February 2021.
settlements inclusive, safe, resilient                                                           13 https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/
                                                                                                    business-aviation/2020-03-06/dutch-
and sustainable; the Sustainable                                                                    government-targets-saf-blending-mandate-2023
Tourism element of UNSDG 12,                                                                        6 March 2020.
                                          Source:                                                14 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable
Ensure sustainable consumption and                                                                  Change, 13 May 2021.
                                          1 BP, Statistical review of world energy, June 2020.
production patterns; and UN SDG 13,       2 BloombergNEF, 2020.                                  15 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-
Take urgent action to combat climate      3 BloombergNEF, 2020.                                     aviation-idUSKBN2AJ0LH, 19 February 2021.
                                          4 The mention of specific companies should not be      16 Columbia Threadneedle analysis, 2021.
change and its impacts.                      taken as an endorsement.                            17 https://sdgs.un.org/goals

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03	Country head focus –
    Switzerland

                             Along with the unspoiled Alps,              Three steps for sustainability
                             finance is emblematic of Switzerland.
                             The country’s banks and asset               Firstly, by the autumn of 2021 the State
                             managers, especially, are known for         Secretariat for International Finance
                             exporting finance all over the world,       must propose changes to legislation
                             counselling the world’s wealthy. In the     for preventing “greenwashing”.
                             20th century fierce ingenuity made          Secondly, the Federal Council
                             Switzerland known for its banking           recommended that financial market
                             secrecy and hedge funds. Yet today its      players publish methods and strategies
                             financiers and fintech entrepreneurs        for taking account of climate and
                             are turning their minds to the              environmental risks when managing
                             development of sustainable finance.         clients’ assets. Finally, recognising the
                                                                         need to transform the entire economy,
                             This is partly through necessity: there     companies in all sectors must
 Eva Maria Hintner           is a rising bar of sustainable finance      implement the recommendations of
 Country Head Switzerland    regulation with which to comply, both       the Taskforce on Climate-related
                             in Switzerland and its export markets.      Financial Disclosures.
                             But also, many private banking
                             and asset management clients are            The momentum for sustainability
                             highly sophisticated investors and          was gathering even before this
The country’s financiers     philanthropists. For them, sustainable      announcement. According to the
                                                                         2020 Swiss Sustainable Investment
and fintech entrepreneurs    investing in its various forms is a
                                                                         Market Study, the value of sustainable
                             natural extension of existing activities.
are developing fresh ideas                                               investments rose by almost two thirds
                             With finance representing around            – 62% – in 2019 to CHF 1.2 trillion,
that are influencing the     10% of gross domestic product,1             equivalent to about a third of locally
global evolution of          the Swiss government is encouraging         managed assets.3 While 2020’s fund
sustainable finance          local banks, asset managers and             flows have yet to be announced, the
                             insurers to move quickly on this. It        growth rate is likely to have accelerated
                             is keen for Swiss finance to remain         if it has followed international trends,4
                             competitive, and to play a part in          as rising awareness of environmental
                             helping the country achieve its stated      and social issues is boosting inflows
                             goal of becoming carbon neutral by          into sustainable investment funds all
                             2050. For that reason, Switzerland’s        over the world.
                             Federal Council introduced a three-
                             pronged approach to making the              Beyond banking and asset
                             country a leading centre for sustainable    management, Switzerland is an
                             finance at the end of 2020.2                international insurance centre.

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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

 Like its peers everywhere, its insurers     (DIBs) in education and healthcare.       Exporting ideas and influence
 are under pressure to mitigate              Its Quality Education India DIB,
 environmental, social and governance        launched in 2018, sets out to improve     As the shift to sustainable finance
 (ESG) risks, while also engaging            the quality of learning and literacy in   rapidly accelerates, so Swiss ingenuity
 with the companies they invest in to        India, and in its first year reported     is contributing new ideas, some of
 improve their actions if needed.            achieving a 30% improvement in            which may be copied elsewhere.
 The country’s best-known insurers,          participating schools in the states       It may not be the best-known country
 Zurich and Swiss Re, were ranked first      of Delhi and Gujarat.9                    for sustainable finance, but its financial
 and fifth respectively, in the insurance/                                             institutions and fintechs are quietly
 reinsurance sector of the Dow Jones         Another field of innovation is            pioneering ways to manage money
 Sustainability Indices.5 What’s more,       Switzerland’s green fintech companies,    sustainably. Meanwhile, its insurers
 almost nine in 10 (86%) of Swiss            which are growing quickly from small      also appear to be ahead of their peers.
 insurance companies include ESG             beginnings.10 They are operating
                                             across fields ranging from providing      As has always been the case, the
 criteria when making investment
                                             green financial products and analysing    country’s financiers are exporting
 decisions, according to the 2019
                                             ESG data, to providing insurance          their ideas, exerting influence
 Sustainability Report of the Swiss
                                             solutions related to climate change.      beyond its mountains that symbolise
 Insurance Association.6
                                                                                       environmental purity.
 That said, the country cannot claim         One tangible example is Yova,11
 to be at the forefront of all areas of      which offers investments through a
 sustainable finance. For instance, the      digital platform that aims to combine
 SIX Swiss Exchange only lists about         sustainability with attractive returns.
 40 sustainable bonds, with just half        Its CEO, Tillmann Lang, is quoted on
 of them primary listings.7                  the Finance Swiss website saying:         Source:
                                             “People buy organic food, eco-friendly    1 https://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-
                                                                                          Country-Risks/Switzerland
                                             clothing, green power, switch from        2 https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/
 From social finance to fintech              planes to rail… They also want to            documentation/media-releases.msg-id-81571.
                                                                                          html, 11 December 2020.
 But while the country might not be          invest sustainably. There aren’t so       3 https://www.sustainablefinance.ch/en/swiss-
 a juggernaut of sustainable finance,        many good financial solutions out there      sustainable-investment-market-study-2020-_
                                                                                          content---1--3037--35722.html, 8 June 2020.
 some of its nimbler organisations are       for those who want their investments to   4 https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-
 proving just as innovative as they were     make a clear difference. Yova was set        business/sustainable-fund-inflows-hit-record-high-
                                             up to provide sustainable investment         q1-morningstar-2021-04-30/, 30 April 2021.
 in boosting their competitiveness in                                                  5 https://finance.swiss/en/sustainable-finance/
 previous eras. For instance, UBS took       solutions for normal people.”12           6 SIA 2019 Sustainability Report, 5 June 2020.
                                                                                       7 https://www.six-group.com/dam/download/the-
 the step in 2020 of declaring that                                                       swiss-stock-exchange/listing/bonds/sustainable-
                                             Quite a few green fintechs collect
 sustainable investments would                                                            bonds-SIX.pdf, 2021.
                                             and analyse ESG data. For instance,       8 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-
 be the default solution for private
                                             RepRisk is a pioneer in the application      page-ndp/en-20200910-gwm-si.html,
 clients investing globally, becoming                                                     10 September 2020.
                                             of machine learning to ESG data.          9 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-
 the first major global financial
                                             Further evidence of the progress of          page-ndp/en-20200910-gwm-si.html,
 institution to do so.8                                                                   10 September 2020.
                                             Switzerland’s fintechs in 2020 can be
                                                                                       10 https://finance.swiss/en/news-and-events/green-
 Further, the bank’s UBS Optimus             seen in the Swiss Fintech Innovation         fintech-takes-off-as-the-financial-sector-embraces-
                                             Lab joining forces with Stanford             sustainability/, 7 December 2020.
 Foundation is innovative in the field                                                 11 Mention of specific companies should not be
 of social finance, where philanthropy       University to form the Global Centre         taken as a recommendation to buy.
                                             for Sustainable Digital Finance.          12 https://finance.swiss/en/news-and-events/green-
 and sustainable investing converge,                                                      fintech-takes-off-as-the-financial-sector-embraces-
 pioneering Development Impact Bonds                                                      sustainability/, 7 December 2020.

12
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

04	Funding Europe’s green
    infrastructure finance gap

     Benjamin Kelly                            Ingrid Edmund
     Senior Analyst, Global Research           Senior Portfolio Manager

 Transformational plans for energy,          Figure 1: Google Analytics returns for ESG phrases
 mobility and buildings require huge
                                             120
 amounts of private sector finance,
 inevitably opening up a new field of
                                             100
 attractive investment opportunities.

 Responsible Investment has                    80
 witnessed strong growth over the
 past five years. However, the past six        60
 months have seen it embark on a
 much steeper trajectory. If we take a
                                               40
 Google Analytics view on worldwide
 searches for “ESG” (environmental,
                                               20
 social and governance) phrases,
 it peaked in March 2021 (Figure 1).
 This growth is also evident within             0
                                               May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21
 corporate transcripts with respect to
 the growing usage of ESG themes             Source: Google Analytics, May 2021. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given
                                             region and time. A value of 100 is peak popularity. A value of 50 means the term is half as popular. A zero means there was
 (Figure 2).                                 insufficient data for this item.

                                             Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus                                                    Biodiversity
                                             Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts
14                                                                                                                                                    Biofuel
                                              3,500
                                                                                                                                                      Carbon Capture
100

        80
                                                                                                                                                                Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

        60

        40

        20

           0
          May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Figure 2: key RI themes increasingly mentioned in company transcripts
Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus                                                                            Biodiversity            There has been growing interest in net zero, carbon
Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts                                                                                                              capture and carbon offsetting versus 4Q20
                                                                                                                                 Biofuel
    3,500                                                                                                                                                                           YoY change     QoQ Change
                                                                                                                                 Carbon Capture
                                                                                                                                                          Biodiversity                  29%            33%
                                                                                                                                 Carbon Offset            Biofuel                       22%            -1%
    3,000
                                                                                                                                 Circular Economy         Carbon Capture               194%            67%
    2,500                                                                                                                        Decarbonization          Carbon Offset                134%            72%
                                                                                                                                                          Circular Economy              60%             4%
                                                                                                                                 Digital Tax
    2,000                                                                                                                                                 Decarbonisation               81%            49%
                                                                                                                                 Net Zero                 Digital Tax                   56%            39%

    1,500                                                                                                                        Electric Vehicles        Electric Vehicles             99%            51%

                                                                                                                                 Employee Satisfaction    Employee Satisfaction         33%            31%
                                                                                                                                                          ESG                           34%            25%
    1,000                                                                                                                        EU Taxonomy
                                                                                                                                                          EU Taxonomy                  525%            39%
                                                                                                                                 Furlough                 Furlough                     327%            -29%
               500
                                                                                                                                 Green Deal               Green Deal                    46%            19%
                                                                                                                                 Hydrogen                 Hydrogen                     258%            34%
                 0
                     Jul-15

                              Jan-16

                                       Jul-16

                                                Jan-17

                                                         Jul-17

                                                                  Jan-18

                                                                           Jul-18

                                                                                    Jan-19

                                                                                             Jul-19

                                                                                                      Jan-20

                                                                                                               Jul-20

                                                                                                                        Jan-21

                                                                                                                                                          Net Zero                     352%           107%
                                                                                                                                                          Renewables                    16%             7%

Source: Alphasense and Morgan Stanley, as at April 2021.

        One of the enablers of this stellar                                                  This will not be achieved through new                       activity, with this positive multiplier
          60
        growth has been strong policy support,                                               projects alone, developing existing                         effect persisting for at least four years
        particularly in Europe. The build out                                                brownfield projects will be key to                          and the impact on economic activity
        of green infrastructure here is nothing                                              supporting sustainable investment.                          being two to seven times larger than
                                                                                                          Losses
        if not ambitious. The European Union                                                                                                             those associated with environmentally
          40 among the first to commit to
        was                                                                                  For investors, Europe’s gargantuan                          detrimental measures.
                                          Growth
                                                                                             appetite for green infrastructure
Million jobs

        carbon neutrality – by 20501 – and has
        gone furthest in publishing investment                                               investment will inevitably lead to
        plans to enable a green transition.                                                  significant investment opportunities.                       Policies driving
          20
        Some    observers estimate that up to                                                The Green Deal’s targets imply an                           transformation
        €7 trillion in infrastructure spending                                               investment gap of around €470 billion
                                                                                             a year through to 2030.4 This will not                      As Europe gears up to stimulate
        will be required over the next 30 years                                                                                                          economic recovery from Covid-19,
        to achieve the EU’s stated goals,                                                    be bridged without major injections
                                                                                             of private capital alongside state                          so its plans for green infrastructure
        of 0which around €3 trillion will come                                                                                                           investment have increased. Joining
                        2019
        from private sources.2Bioenergy                                                      spending and incentives,2030creating huge,
                                               Electricity                                         Coal
                                                                                             multi-year     Oil and Gas
                                                                                                        investment    opportunities.                     forces with the Green Deal, the EU
        But while 2050 may seem a distant                                                                                                                Recovery Plan gives climate transition
        prospect, the EU does not plan to start                                              Aside from environmental benefits,                          a central role in the continent’s
        its transformation slowly. The Green                                                 green infrastructure investment can                         blueprint for economic recovery and
        Deal, which is the cornerstone of the                                                also accrue economic advantages                             growth, aiming to create the jobs of
        continent’s transition to a low-carbon                                               through the stimulation of economic                         the future as well as positive climate
        future, aims to deliver a reduction of                                               activity – a recent IMF5 paper                              and sustainability impacts, including
        50%-55% in carbon emissions by                                                       concluded that every dollar spent on                        reduced emissions, greater energy
        2030 compared with 1990 levels.3                                                     carbon-neutral activities generates                         self-sufficiency and lower bills.
                                                                                             more than a dollar of economic

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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

 To support its Green Deal agenda,            Four major investment                         2. Green mobility
 the EU originally intended to mobilise
 at least €1 trillion of public and private   themes                                        The transition to electric power for
                                                                                            transport is a central element of the
 investment by 2030, but the stimulus         Focusing specifically on European             Green Deal, which stipulates that by
 package drawn up to address the              infrastructure, the four most notable         2030 at least 30 million zero-emission
 economic impact of Covid-19 has              investment themes are all central             cars will be in use on Europe’s
 boosted this. The EU Recovery Plan’s         elements of the Green Deal agenda.            roads,11 high-speed rail travel will
 additional stimulus for the period
                                              1. Renewable energy                           double across Europe and all
 2021-27 is expected to total around
                                                                                            scheduled mass transport for
 €1.85 trillion, roughly a quarter of         The plan calls for a doubling of              journeys of less than 500km should
 which could be allocated to climate          electricity generation from renewable         be carbon-neutral.12 For some
 transition-related investments.6             sources by 2030 to help meet its              companies, these targets present
 Additionally, a €17.5 billion Just           emissions reduction targets. This             immediate opportunities to generate
 Transition Fund has been agreed as           implies a major increase in European          attractive returns. Rail equipment
 part of the Green Deal to mitigate the       utility companies’ current rates of           makers are well positioned to benefit
 economic and employment impacts of           investment in renewable capacity and          from the Green Deal, although an
 Europe’s climate transition.7                power grids. According to research            accelerated transition to electric
                                              carried out by the consultancy                vehicles will pose major challenges
 The EU’s Green Taxonomy will help
                                              AT Kearney, annual renewables                 for automakers that need to develop
 to drive private investment into green
                                              investment in Europe will rise from           new vehicles and ensure access to
 infrastructure. This is an ambitious
                                              €60 billion in 2020 to €90 billion            sufficient battery capacity.
 attempt to classify economic activities
                                              in 2022. By 2030, investment in
 according to their sustainability, and is
                                              European wind and solar capacity              3. Hydrogen as a future energy
 intended to influence the way private
                                              will total at least €650 billion and          source
 capital is allocated, alongside the
                                              could reach €1 trillion.9 This is likely      There is growing interest in hydrogen
 less prescriptive framework of the
                                              to boost utility valuations in Europe         as a clean energy source, although it
 17 UN Sustainable Development
                                              significantly, particularly given the big     remains expensive relative to others.
 Goals (SDGs). Globally, the effort
                                              increase in demand that will result           The cost of so-called “green hydrogen”
 to achieve the SDGs could create
                                              from the replacement of fossil fuels          – made using renewable electricity to
 more than $12 trillion in market
                                              with electricity in transportation. It will   power electrolysis of water
 opportunities8 across four key areas –
                                              also flow through to rising profits at        – has fallen thanks to dramatically
 health and wellbeing, cities, energy
                                              equipment makers such as Danish               cheaper renewable energy,
 and materials and food and agriculture.
                                              turbine maker Vestas, which reported          but remains seven times higher than
                                              return on capital employed last year          fossil fuels. Hydrogen is also difficult
                                              of around 20%.10

16
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

to store and transport.13 However,         awarded £72 million in funding, partly     used for heating and cooling of 18%.
it has major potential in areas where      from the UK government, to finance a       To achieve this it aims to double the
electrification is not feasible, such as   hydrogen carbon capture and storage        renovation rate of buildings to 2% over
heavy industry, trucks, shipping and       (CCS) project. It is hoped the fresh       the next decade, which will require
seasonal energy storage, and the EU        capital will accelerate the project to a   investment of €275 billion a year.
aims to grow the share of hydrogen         final investment decision by 2023 in       Energy efficiency standards will also
in the bloc’s energy mix from less         order for the initial phase to become      be tightened.19
than 2% currently to 13%-14% by            operational by 2025.17
                                                                                      These themes are consistent with the
2050.14 To realise this potential, major
                                           4. Building stock                          opportunities we are seeing in the
policy support will be necessary to
                                                                                      infrastructure space, in particular in the
encourage investment. The European         Around three-quarters of the 220
                                                                                      past 12 months those themes linked
Commission estimates the carbon            million buildings in the EU are deemed
                                                                                      to methods of decarbonisation such as
price under the EU’s Emissions Trading     energy inefficient.18 The EU’s Covid-19
                                                                                      carbon capture, and solutions around
Scheme will need to rise from around       recovery plan will channel major
                                                                                      decarbonsiation (both brownfield and
€30 currently to €55-€90 a tonne.15        investment into upgrading them, given
                                                                                      greenfield), namely hydrogen and
Examples of projects getting underway      that buildings account for 36% of the
                                                                                      carbon offsetting.
include Ørsted building a 1GW green        EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and
hydrogen plant in the Dutch North          40% of energy consumption. The plan’s      Thus, the supportive policy backdrop
Sea, which is slated for operations by     key targets call for a 60% reduction       is presenting sustainability-focused
2030;16 and in the UK Cadent’s HyNet       in greenhouse gas emissions from           openings within the small mid-cap
North West project, which has been         buildings by 2030 and a cut in energy      nexus.

                                                                                                                                 17
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

    120

    100

         80

         60

         40

         20

            0
           May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

 Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus                                                                                  Biodiversity
 Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts
 Don’t forget social!                                                                         utmost importance, and strategies
                                                                                                Source:                 Biofuel     to
                                                                                                1 https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/
     3,500                                                                                    ensure positive social outcomes
                                                                                                   strategies/2050_en
                                                                                                                                 are
                                                                                                                        Carbon Capture
 This rapid move towards net zero                                                             embedded in our business plans.
                                                                                                2 Goldman Sachs Equity Research: The EU Green
 creates                                                                  Carbon Offset
  3,000 a risk that some people are                                                                Deal, July 2020.
                                                                                                3 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/
 left behind – perhaps those without the Looking forward, Europe’sCircular drive Economy
                                                                                   to
                                                                                                   detail/en/IP_20_1599
 opportunity
  2,500         to reskill into low-carbon    green its economy will lead    to a new
                                                                          Decarbonization       4 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/
 industries or unable to access the           range of opportunities in infrastructure             economy-finance/assessment_of_economic_and_
                                                                          Digital Tax              investment_needs.pdf
 benefits
  2,000     of the new energy system.         investment. Indeed, Europe’s                      5 IMF.org, Building Back Better: How Big Are Green
                                                                          Net Zero
 The Just Transition acknowledges the         policymakers are aware that     they                 Spending Multipliers?, 19 March 2021.
                                                                          Electric Vehicles     6 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/recovery-plan-
 social
  1,500   implications  of  delivering net    cannot   achieve their zero-carbon     goals         europe_en
 zero, from jobs and training to working      without attracting private investment.
                                                                          Employee Satisfaction 7 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/
                                                                                                   detail/en/IP_20_2354
 with
  1,000communities and ensuring no            Given the Green Deal’s ambitious
                                                                          EU Taxonomy           8 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sg-
 one is left behind (Figure 3). Working       timeline over the next 10 years, now                 finance-strategy/
                                                                          Furlough              9 https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/
 with
    500our portfolio companies – and any      is the time to be exploring the major
                                                                          Green Deal               energie/energiewirtschaft-bis-zu-eine-billion-
 future ones – to ensure we create a          investment themes.                                   euro-fuer-oekostrom-energiekonzerne-planen-
 just 0transition for employees is of the                                 Hydrogen                 rekordinvestitionen/26727336.html
                                                                                                10 https://www.vestas.com/~/media/vestas/
                    Jul-15

                             Jan-16

                                      Jul-16

                                               Jan-17

                                                          Jul-17

                                                                   Jan-18

                                                                            Jul-18

                                                                                     Jan-19

                                                                                               Jul-19

                                                                                                        Jan-20

                                                                                                                 Jul-20

                                                                                                                          Jan-21

                                                                                                   investor/investor%20pdf/financial%20
                                                                                                   reports/2019/q4/2019_annual_report.pdf
                                                                                                11 Reuters, EU to target 30 million electric cars by
 Figure 3: Global employment in energy supply in the net-zero pathway,                             2030, 4 December 2020.
                                                                                                12 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/
 2019-2030                                                                                         TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0789
                                                                                                13 https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-
     60                                                                                            storage-challenges
                                                                                                14 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/
                                                                                                   hydrogen_strategy.pdf
                                                                                                15 https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/
                                                       Losses                                      news/2020/08/03/10537257/eu-hydrogen-
                                                                                                   strategy-could-cause-power-and-carbon-prices-to-
     40                                                                                            drop
                                       Growth                                                   16 https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/04/01/
 Million jobs

                                                                                                   orsted-to-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-hydrogen-
                                                                                                   plants-at-north-sea-port/
                                                                                                17 https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-
                                                                                                   development/72m-funding-announced-hynet-
     20                                                                                            north-20193274
                                                                                                18 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/
                                                                                                   eu_renovation_wave_strategy.pdf
                                                                                                19 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/
                                                                                                   eu_renovation_wave_strategy.pdf

                0
                                      2019                                                                                               2030
                                                        Bioenergy               Electricity              Coal             Oil and Gas

 Source: International Energy Agency, 2019.

18
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

                                       19
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

05	Biden’s strong commitment
    on climate change

     Natalia Luna                             Brian Aronson
     Senior Thematic Investment Analyst,      Equity analyst
     Responsible Investment

 The US president’s “American                President Joe Biden’s first months       boost clean energy generation and
                                             in the White House fully reflect his     US-made electric vehicles (EVs), as well
 Jobs Plan” aims to fulfill his              administration’s commitment to           as modest support for renovations
 campaign pledges on climate                 pursuing a transition to a low carbon    of buildings. At the heart of this
                                             economy. Biden has rejoined the Paris    approach is the Infrastructure Bill –
 change – if he can get it                   Agreement and recently announced         a $2 trillion wish-list of measures to
 through Congress                            a highly ambitious target to reduce      get the US on the path to net-zero
                                             emissions by half by 2030.1              emissions by 2050. The infrastructure
                                                                                      proposal includes support for low
                                             In a landmark proposal announced in      carbon technologies and core targets
                                             March, Biden’s $2.25 trillion American   relating to climate change.
                                             Jobs Plan,2 or Infrastructure Plan,
                                             broadly addresses his campaign           Biden unveiled a wide-ranging set of
                                             pledges on climate change, even going    spending and tax incentive proposals,
                                             further than expected in some areas.     mostly over an eight-year period,
                                             While there may be compromises           focused on infrastructure, climate
                                             around the final numbers to get the      adaptation and social initiatives.
                                             plan through Congress, it aims to        Broadly speaking, the plan sets out

20
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

to improve infrastructure, create jobs,    storage (CCS), as well as $100 billion      capital spending. The Biden proposal
foster innovation and accelerate the       in investments for upgrading power          specifically references transmission
transition to a zero-carbon economy.       infrastructure.                             investments, as higher voltage lines
It has three priorities for supporting                                                 are needed to move green electricity
the energy transition: accelerating        A proposed 10-year extension of tax         from larger wind or solar sites to load
the shift to a clean power sector;         credits for wind, solar and fuel cells      centres. What’s more, any measures
the electrification of transport; and      goes far beyond the two years of            that smooth the siting process for
the renovation of energy-inefficient       incentives previously introduced in         transmission projects will encourage the
buildings. While there will be             December 2020, in a move that would         construction of new projects. This major
compromises ahead in order to get          accelerate the clean energy transition.     investment programme looks positive
the plan through Congress, if passed       Under the proposal developers of new        for electrical equipment manufacturers,
it should accelerate the US energy         renewable energy projects would be          as well as select engineering and
transition, with positive implications     able to immediately realise the cash        construction companies.
for the long-term growth of the sectors    value of tax credits, helping their cash
that will help to decarbonise the US       flows. Utility companies may also           But there are also losers: Biden’s plan
economy.                                   benefit, albeit less directly, as the tax   would eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
                                           credits are likely to lower the cost of     for oil and gas companies. However,
                                           renewable energy for consumers. Lower       this was not unexpected.
Turbocharging clean power                  consumer bills tend to ease relations
                                           between utilities and state regulators,
Notably, the plan sets out a goal
                                           paving the way for higher capital
                                                                                       Empowering clean transport
of generating entirely carbon-free
electricity by 2035, which was a Biden     spending by utilities, boosting growth.     Turning to clean transport, the greatest
campaign pledge. It backs this through                                                 emphasis in Biden’s proposals is on
                                           Also favourable for utilities is the $100   galvanising the US-made EV market.
surprisingly generous tax incentives for
                                           billion earmarked for upgrading power       The plan earmarks $174 billion for the
renewables and carbon capture and
                                           infrastructure, which again supports        sector, notably to be spent on installing

                                                                                                                                  21
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

 500,000 EV chargers by 2030, which          railway funding will help delivery and      Waiting on Congress
 is a modest positive surprise. When         rail companies shift their fleets toward
 combined with a potential $7,500            clean transport.                            The Biden plan as it stands is a
 subsidy for each consumer buying a                                                      significant shift from the policies of
 US-made EV, this could be significant,                                                  the previous administration and, if
 giving consumers confidence in the
                                             Making buildings energy                     implemented, should accelerate the
 charging infrastructure and making the      efficient                                   greening of US power, transport and
 cost of EVs competitive versus internal                                                 buildings – despite the absence of
                                             Reflecting Biden’s modest campaign
 combustion engines. The combination                                                     some campaign pledges, such as
                                             pledge to kick-start a gradual
 of these two measures adds 15%-30%                                                      tangible plans about green hydrogen
                                             renovation of buildings, the plan
 to Columbia Threadneedle forecasts                                                      and details of how agriculture will be
                                             proposes spending $213 billion on
 for annual lithium demand from 2021-                                                    decarbonised.
                                             improving energy efficiency. Buildings
 2025 and could support companies            account for roughly 10% of US               But that is a big “if”. It now falls to
 positioned to address that increased        emissions and a third of the country’s      Congress to translate the plan to
 demand.                                     energy consumption, according to the        legislation. It is highly likely that some
 The plan’s clean transport initiatives      US Energy Information Administration        of the provisions are not passed or will
 also include a proposed $111 billion        (EIA).3 The money will be spent on          be altered.
 for water infrastructure, including         retrofitting 2 million affordable homes,
 modernising ageing water systems,           building 500,000 new homes and
 as well as investments for modernising      retrofitting more than a million homes
 public transit and rail systems, and        with energy-efficient upgrades.
 reinforcing the resilience of critical      These goals would be accomplished
 infrastructure to the consequences          through the extension and expansion
 of climate change. Investments for          of home and commercial efficiency
 airports and ports are intended             credits, along with the establishment
 to make the US a global leader in           of a $27 billion “Clean Energy and
 clean freight and aviation, while the       Sustainability Accelerator” to mobilise
 investment in water infrastructure          private investment. There is also a
 may help companies with products            proposal for energy renovation projects
 that support efficient water transport,     in public buildings.
 filtration and treatment. Meanwhile,
 $25 billion in airport funding and          Major beneficiaries of the drive to
 $17 billion in waterway funding,            make the US building stock greener are
 coupled with other more traditional         heating, ventilation and air conditioning   Source:
                                                                                         1 The Guardian, Biden vows to slash US emissions
 infrastructure spending, should benefit     companies. They will play a major part         by half to meet ‘existential crisis of our time’,
 construction equipment companies.           in renovations, significantly reducing         22 April 2021.
                                                                                         2 https://www.whitehouse.gov/american-jobs-plan/
 Alongside this, $85 billion in public       electricity consumption and replacing       3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/
 transit funding and $80 billion in          harmful refrigerants.                          faqphp?id=86&t=1

22
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

                                       23
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

06	Climate change, net zero and
    the employment myth

                                             entitled “Getting to Zero”1 caught our                              of Economics’ Grantham Institute,
                                             attention. It has been cited under                                  which raised important questions
                                             press headlines suggesting that as                                  about it.2 The need for caution about
                                             many as 10 million UK jobs would be                                 the methodology used, as well as the
                                             at risk from the UK’s transition to net                             failure to understand wider changes
                                             zero over the next three decades.                                   taking place or the job creation potential
                                             Is that really the potential implication                            of policy responses to climate change,
                                             of the UK’s decarbonisation plan?                                   is important.
                                             We think not.
                                                                                                                 Current longer-term employment
                                                                                                                 issues do need to be considered in
                                             Will net zero boost                                                 the context of an “industrial” revolution
                                             employment growth?                                                  that is already playing out and likely
                                                                                                                 to be accelerated by the effects of the
     Iain Richards                           A good starting point here is a                                     coronavirus pandemic. Digitisation
     Head of Global Responsible              commentary on the report published                                  and automation are examples of this
     Investment Policy                       by Alex Brown at the London School                                  and more than 80% of CEOs surveyed

                                             Figure 1: Jobs created per $1 million invested
 The world is changing and not
 just because of climate change.
 How companies and governments
 respond to the change will have
 significant implications, economically
 and competitively as well as for
 employment, which we will focus
 on in this article.

 As a research-driven investment
 house, identifying, analysing and
 understanding the trends and
 changes that impact, or will impact,
 our investments is at the heart of our
 “thematic” research focus. It was in
 that context that a recent UK report        Source: Joseph Stiglitz, et al. ‘Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?’, May 2020.

24
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

by the WEF3 reported that they are               reflects a strong trend we were                                             Figure 2: EU employment growth
accelerating the automation of their             seeing in the US before the Paris                                           projections by sector
work processes and expanding                     Agreement withdrawal.
their use of remote work. That has          n In contrast, the mining sector faces                                                                                                                  2030 (%)
implications for employment, but not          a substantial fall in employment                                                 Agriculture                                                             0.5
the way some people think. Let’s start        reflecting lower production in the                                               Mining                                                                 -16.6
with some context on climate change:          energy extraction sector.                                                        Manufacturing                                                           0.7
                                                                                                                               Utilities                                                               -2.4
Framing the scale of the economic           n The implications are, of course,
                                                                                                                               Construction                                                            1.1
                                              not just for employment but
challenge4                                                                                                                     Distribution, retail and hotels and catering                            0.6
                                              also countries’ economic
                                                                                                                               Transport and communications                                            0.5
Scientists have estimated that were           competitiveness.
                                                                                                                               Business servies                                                        0.7
temperature increases to reach three
                                            However, under the same analysis                                                   Non-business services                                                   0.3
degrees celsius global GDP would
fall 25%. If they reached four degrees      the US’s outlook under the Trump                                                 Source: FOME energy scenario projections, 2020.

the decline would be more than 30%          administration, having rejected the
                                                                                                                             climate leadership was clear. With job
compared to 2010 levels. That is            Paris Agreement, was not looking so
                                                                                                                             creation spanning energy efficiency,
comparable to the Great Depression,         rosy. That stood in stark contrast to
                                                                                                                             transportation, renewable energy,
but the difference is that the impact       what we were seeing ahead of the
                                                                                                                             waste reduction, natural resources
would be permanent.                         then president’s announced withdrawal
                                                                                                                             conservation and education, the effect
                                            from Paris. Compared to the EU’s
Framing the upside alternative5                                                                                              was significant – even before exploring
                                            1.1% boost to GDP, the US faced an
                                                                                                                             the innovation and job creation being
                                            estimated 3.4% contraction in GDP by
I’ll start here at a more regional level,                                                                                    seen across other sectors. At the time
                                            2030 and a 1.6% hit to its job market.7
given differences that are evident.                                                                                          it was estimated that in the US such
It has been estimated that the EU’s         The “pre-Paris withdrawal” boost                                                 jobs collectively numbered around
GDP would benefit to the tune of            being seen in US economic activity                                               4-4.5 million jobs;8 and, relative to
1.1% by 2030 should it successfully         and related jobs growth linked to US                                             jobs in coal mining,9 many of these
implement the Paris Agreement
and transition towards a low-carbon
economy. That is merely a result of
                                            Figure 3: Electric power generation employment by technology
increased investment activity and lower
                                            (Q2 2015-Q1 2016)
imports of fossil fuels, before we look
at any other benefits.                      400,000
                                                                  373,807

In terms of employment, the                 350,000

associated upside growth in                 300,000
                                                        300,192
EU employment is, at the more
conservative end of the scale, around       250,000
                                                                                                                                                                            Oil: 12,840
0.5%. That is approaching an extra                                                                                                                                      Natural Gas: 52,125
                                            200,000                                                                                                                        Coal: 86,035
million jobs compared to business as
usual. The employment implications do       150,000                                                                                                                135,898
vary by country, as well as by sector:6                                          101,738
                                            100,000
                                                                        77,088                         Bioenergy: 7,980                      56,259
                                                                                                                                                               68,176
n Services sectors, for example,                                                                         CHP: 18,034                52,845            56,185
                                             50,000                                                                                                                                    35,980 36,117       32,695
  benefit from both increased                                                                        19,559                                                                                         19,396
                                                                                       7,645 5,768                    8,608 9,295
  consumer activity but also as part                0
                                                             Solar           Wind      Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear                                  Fossil       Advanced      Other
  of the supply chain of renewables                                                                                                                                                         Gas
                                                                                                    /CHP      Hydro       Hydro
  and energy efficiency equipment                                                                             2015         2016
  and installation processes. This
                                            Source: US Department of Energy, US Energy and Employment Report, January 2017.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               25
200,000                                                                                                                                                              Coal: 86,035

 150,000                                                                                                                                                          135,898

Responsible Investment Quarterly
                        101,738  – Q1 2021
 100,000
                                                 77,088                      Bioenergy: 7,980                                              56,259
                                                                                                                                                             68,176
                                                                               CHP: 18,034                                        52,845            56,185
              50,000                                                                                                                                                                 35,980 36,117       32,695
                                                                           19,559                                                                                                                 19,396
                                                             7,645 5,768                    8,608 9,295
                                 0
                                         Solar        Wind   Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear                                                       Fossil         Advanced       Other
                                                                          /CHP      Hydro       Hydro                                                                                    Gas
                                                                                    2015         2016
                                                                                        400,000
                                                                                                                                                        373,807

                                                                                                   350,000
                                                                                                                                              300,192
                                                                                                   300,000

                                                                                                   250,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oil: 12,840
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Natural Gas: 52,125
                                                                                                   200,000                                                                                                                      Coal: 86,035
 Figure 4: Perceived barriers to the adoption of new technologies                                                                                                    26 economies it examined – a net gain
                                                                                                   150,000                                                           of 12 million jobs.135,898      Education, training
                                Skills gaps in the local labour market                                                                                  55.4         and the re-skilling of the workforce
                                                                                                                           101,738
                                 Inability to attract specialised talent                       100,000                                    46.7Bioenergy: 7,980
                                                                                                                   77,088                                            will be56,259critical issues
                                                                                                                                                                                              68,176    in this context.
 Skills gaps among organisation’s leadership                                                                                        41.4          CHP: 18,034             52,845       56,185
                                                                                                50,000                                                               Reflecting        that, corporate 35,980planning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  36,117        32,695
       Insufficient understanding of opportunities                                                                              38.9           19,559                 on    future     investment        and  operations 19,396
                                                                                                                                  7,645 5,768                 8,608 9,295
 Lack of flexibility of the regulatory framework                                                       0                33.0
                                                                                                            Solar
                                                                                                                                                                     will be influenced by the availability Other            of
                                        Shortage of investment capital                                                  Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear                      Fossil Advanced
                                                                                                                     32.3                                            the right
                                                                                                                                                  /CHP            Hydro        Hydro skills and talent. It is   Gasnot the
                                 Lack of flexibility in hiring and firing                                      26.3
                                                                                                                                                                 2015companies   2016 that embrace change that
                                     Lack of interest among leadership                              17.9
                                                                                                                                                                     lose out. As recent historical evidence
                                                                  Other                 5.3
                                                                                                                                                                     tells us, companies that automate
                                                                            0               10       20         30            40             50               60
                                                                                                                                                                     will survive, prosper and hire more
                                                                                                 Share of companies surveyed (%)
                                                                                                                                                                     workers. Those that don’t will end up
 Source: WEF, Future of Jobs Report 2020, October 2020.
                                                                                                                                                                     shedding staff (Figure 5).15
 were inherently local, contributing                                                              (ALMPs12) an important focus for
                                                                                                     The priority for policymakers, then, is
 to growth in their local economies.                                                              policymakers. The need for, and
                                                                                                     how to facilitate the changes needed
 Comparing what was being seen                                                                    merit of, initiatives such as the EU’s
                                                                                                     to support those who will adapt and
 with160
      jobs directly associated with                                                               SkillsSkills gaps in13the
                                                                                                           Agenda          islocal labour
                                                                                                                               clear.  In market
                                                                                                     be tomorrow’s winners – this reflects laying 55.4
 Number of workers (1998=100)

 US electric power generation the                                                                 the foundations to support talent
                                                                                                          Inability to attract specialised
                                                                                                     the challenge faced by economies
                                                                                                                                           46.7
                                                                                                                                            future
                                                                                                  Skills gaps among organisation’s leadership
                                                                                                                                     41.4
 significance
     140      of energy transition for                                                            competitiveness and address key
                                                                                                     across the OECD and beyond. Although
                                                                                                   Insufficient understanding of opportunities
                                                                                                                                   38.9
 US employment was clear:10                                                                       challenges,        the World Economic
                                                                                                     economic outcomes over the past
     120                                                                                          Lack of flexibility of the regulatory framework
                                                                                                                            33.0
                                                                                                  Forum’s work highlights some of the
                                                                                                     20  years    have  varied    widely and
 Coming back to the UK’s transition to                                                                          Shortage of investment capital
                                                                                                                           32.3
                                                                                                  challenges policymakers need to
 net 100
     zero, there are clearly employment                                                              employment      has    risen,  wages have not
                                                                                                           Lack of flexibility in hiring and firing
                                                                                                                    26.3
                                                                                                  consider (Figure 4).14
                                                                                                     only  stagnated     for  many    but the costs
 implications that were largely in line                Lack of interest among leadership                  17.9
 with 80
      the EU average. Rather than there         The WEF estimates that by Other    2025       5.3    of housing,    healthcare      and,  notably
 being an impending job disaster, there         85 million jobs may be displaced,        0        10 in this
                                                                                                           20context, 30education 40 have50risen, 60
       1990         1994      1998
 are in fact very real opportunities on     2002         2006             2010
                                                while 97 million new roles may           2014        more   than
                                                                                                        Share of   offsetting
                                                                                                                 companies       income
                                                                                                                            surveyed (%) gains.
                                                                                                                                                 16

                                    Robot adopters         Non-adopters
 offer for the UK and seizing that in a         emerge across the 15 industries and
 post-Covid and post-Brexit world will
 be important.
                                                                                                   Figure 5: Robots in the workplace
 The UK’s adoption of climate-
 relevant approaches as part of a                                                                                                  160
                                                                                                   Number of workers (1998=100)

 strategic approach to economic
 stimulus and recovery11 will have                                                                                                 140
 important and positive implications
 for both job creation and long-term                                                                                               120
 competitiveness. As part of this, the
 need for policymakers to embrace                                                                                                  100
 “inclusive growth”, taking account of
 the trends playing out, should not be                                                                                               80
 underestimated. The rebalancing we                                                                                                    1990                       1994                    1998           2002     2006          2010               2014
 expect to see in the jobs market will                                                                                                                                                           Robot adopters    Non-adopters
 make active labour market policies
                                                                                                   Source: Michael Koch, et al. “Robots and firms”, July 2019.

26
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

Conclusion                                    change, help recovery post-Covid and       Source:
                                                                                         1 Onward, Getting to zero: A practical policy
                                              benefit from real upside opportunities.       commission to deliver decarbonisation in the UK,
For investors, understanding the issues       Our world and economies are already           January 2021.
and challenges companies will face            changing – economic, technological         2 Net-zero: bad for UK jobs?, 15 January 2021.
                                                                                         3 WEF, The Future of Jobs Report 2020.
in securing the right skills, expertise       and societal change are a reality and      4 Nature, Large Potential Reduction in Economic
and talent needed to respond to these         the effects of Covid will accelerate the      Damages Under UN Mitigation Targets,
changes will be important. The focus                                                        2 November 2020.
                                              changes we are seeing. Companies           5 Eurofound, Energy scenario: Employment
on, and approach to, education and            and governments will either rise to           implications of the Paris Climate Agreement,
training by policymakers will play an                                                       12 February 2019.
                                              the challenge they face or fail their      6 FOME energy scenario projections, 2020.
important role in this at a national level.   stakeholders.                              7 Eurofound, Energy scenario: Employment
                                                                                            implications of the Paris Climate Agreement,
The right long-term policy approaches,        For countries such as the UK,                 12 February 2019.
                                                                                         8 EDF Climate Corps and Meister Consultants Group,
combined with and facilitating forward-       recognising these dynamics and taking         December 2017.
looking programs by companies,                advantage of them will be critical to      9 The coal industry, which had shed jobs since
                                                                                            2012 given competition from cheap natural gas,
will help sow the seeds for success.          pursuing the right policy options and         employed just over 160,000 workers nationwide, of
Corporate initiatives such as SSE’s           ensuring their future prosperity and          which about 53,000 were in mining, according to a
Supporting a Just Transition17 or AT&Ts                                                     January 2017 US Energy and Employment Report
                                              competitiveness.                              from the US Department of Energy.
Future Program18 already illustrate                                                      10 US Department of Energy, US Energy and
strategic approaches to business                                                            Employment Report, January 2017.
                                                                                         11 Joseph Stiglitz, et al. Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery
adaptation and investment in the                                                            packages accelerate or retard progress on climate
future. That said, for many companies                                                       change?, May 2020.
                                                                                         12 Luca Sartorio, et al, What works for Active Labor
unilateral solutions – absent the right                                                     Market Policies?, July 2019.
policy environment and support – may                                                     13 https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1223
                                                                                         14 WEF, The Future of Jobs Report 2020,
not be viable.
                                                                                            October 2020.
                                                                                         15 Michael Koch, et al, Robots and firms, July 2019.
With all these factors at play, one thing                                                16 McKinsey Global Institute, The social contract in
that is clear is that the Paris Agreement                                                   the 21st century.
                                                                                         17 SSE, https://www.sse.com/media/xtrlsctj/
should not be seen as a threat to                                                           just-transition-strategy-sse-final.pdf,
employment; if anything the opposite                                                        18 November 2020.
                                                                                         18 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/atts-1-
is true. It represents an opportunity –                                                     billion-gambit-retraining-nearly-half-its-workforce.
both to mitigate the impacts of climate                                                     html, 13 March 2018.

                                                                                                                                               27
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021

     STEWARDSHIP IN ACTION

     Our stewardship activities are          The research and analysis              While analysing meeting agendas
     integral to our investment process,     emerging from this, and the ongoing    and making voting decisions,
     allowing us to detect inflection        engagement with companies, is          we use a range of research
     points and long-term trends, and        disseminated globally throughout       sources and consider various ESG
     influence companies’ standards          the firm as part of our culture of     issues, including companies’ risk
     around ESG risk management              research intensity and helps us        management practices and evidence
     and sustainable outcomes. A key         identify potential issues at an        of any controversies.
     focus is to enhance our investment      early stage.
     research so that we can make                                                   Our final voting decisions take
     informed capital allocation decisions   In prioritising our engagement work,   account of research issued by proxy
     as active investors.                    we focus our efforts on the more       advisory organisations such as
                                             financially material or contentious    ISS, IVIS and Glass Lewis, as well
     The ultimate goal of our stewardship    issues and themes, and the             as MSCI ESG Research. Although
     approach is to enhance our              issuers in which we have large         we subscribe to proxy advisors’
     understanding of our exposure           holdings. There are many companies     research, votes are determined
     to risks and opportunities that         with which we have ongoing             under our own custom voting policy.
     may affect our ability to deliver       engagements, as well as a number       Votes are cast identically across all
     sustainable long-term value for         that we speak to on a more ad hoc      mandates for which we have voting
     clients. In approaching these           basis, as concerns or issues arise.    authority. All our voting decisions
     responsibilities we are mindful                                                are available for inspection on
     of market trends; company, local        We vote actively at company            our website seven days after
     market and industry-specific issues;    meetings. We view this as one          each company meeting in EMEA/
     and relevant best-practice standards    of the most effective ways to          APAC, and are updated annually in
     – but we will ultimately be guided      signal approval (or otherwise)         September in the US.
     by what is in the best long-term        of a company’s governance,
     economic interests of our clients.      management, board and strategy,
                                             or standards of operating practice.

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