RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Columbia ...
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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 CONTENTS 01 Foreword................................................3 02 Portfolio manager’s viewpoint................7 03 Country head focus – Switzerland..........................................11 04 Funding Europe’s green infrastructure finance gap....................14 05 Biden’s strong commitment on climate change...............................20 06 Climate change, net zero and the employment myth..........................24 Stewardship in action 07 Voting Q1.............................................29 08 Engagement highlights.........................30 2
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 01 Foreword pandemic is forcing governments investment. However, by some around the world to develop policies estimates the world is currently on- not just for stimulating the global trend to face a $15 trillion gap between economy, but also to respond to the infrastructure investment needed climate change and to tackle the social and the amount provided by 2040.1 inequalities that have once again The motivation to tackle this is clear. been highlighted by the spread of the virus. Many of these governments are As the World Economic Forum has considering a tried-and-true method noted2 on the supply side, when the to boost economies in the short term equivalent of 1% of GDP is invested and provide wide societal benefits in in infrastructure, economic output the long term, through infrastructure increases by about 0.4% in the same Iain Richards Head of Global Responsible Investment Policy As we have moved into 2021 and look towards COP26, the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November, the degree of focus around climate-related issues and themes has only intensified. This has equally been reflected in aspects of our thematic research and thinking. In this quarterly review you will find insights from this work across a range of topics. Technologically innovative, sustainable infrastructure can pave the way for an inclusive post-Covid economic recovery. Glasgow will host the UN Climate Change conference in November The economic fallout caused by the Source: iStock. 3
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 year and by 1.5% four years later. The world is changing and not just Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting Set against this context, in this issue of because of climate change. We are both the new political administration Responsible Investment Quarterly we living through the Fourth Industrial and growing investor demand, is both touch on Europe’s green infrastructure Revolution as well as dealing with the examining the need for better climate plans and the related financing needs impacts of the Covid pandemic. and other environmental, social and to provide an insight into a thematic How governments and companies governance (ESG) information, aspect of our research intensity. respond to the change will have as well as including a greater focus on We also touch on President Joe significant implications economically, these issues in its supervisory 2021 Biden’s $2.25 trillion “American Jobs competitively and for employment as examination priorities. Plan” that, in some areas, goes beyond well. The scale of change involved even his election campaign pledges. creates uncertainty and concern I hope this quarter’s report will help for many. This was reflected in provide insight into the types of issues We also look at a sector that press headlines during the quarter our thematic research covers. isn’t traditionally associated with suggesting millions of jobs will be put environmental responsibility: aviation. at risk from climate transition over the It currently consumes around 8% next three decades. We disagree and of all oil, but rather than looking at discuss some of the reasons why later solutions that would require extensive in this report. infrastructure reorganisation, perhaps there is something more immediate As the progress of sustainable that can be done. This gives an insight finance reforms has continued into the breadth of our thinking around around delegated regulations and ESG investing. technical standards in Europe, a broader debate about international There’s an interesting dynamic playing standards has been playing out. out in Switzerland as well, a country The International Organization of regularly associated with finance, if not Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has sustainable finance. But keen to not been discussing the development get left behind in a rapidly changing of an international framework for sphere, it is quietly working on Source: sustainability reporting for public 1 https://www.smartbrief.com/original/2021/01/ generating and implementing ways to issuers with the International Financial are-we-talking-about-infrastructure-right-way manage money sustainably. We look at Reporting Standards Foundation 2 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ coronavirus-covid-19-sustainable-infrastructure- some of the ways it is attempting this. (IFRS). In the US the Securities and investments-aid-recovery/ 4
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 02 Portfolio manager’s viewpoint consumed 8% of all oil,1 the equivalent to alternative fuels such as hydrogen, of almost 7.5 million barrels a day.2 sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) or In 2020, Covid-19 grounded most electricity. Electric planes may have airlines leading to a 39% drop in a future in 25-30 years, but we don’t fuel consumption,3 but the long-term yet have sufficient infrastructure to appetite for air travel will likely still recharge electric vehicles on roads, or grow – mobility is important. Without batteries with truly long ranges, so the policy intervention, however, planes idea of electric planes remains some will continue to use fossil fuels, and it way off. Hydrogen is an interesting is estimated that by 2050 the sector prospect but, like electricity, requires could consume over 14 million barrels a completely new infrastructure and a day, more oil than China consumed technology to make it work, both with in 2019 (Figure 1). the aircraft themselves and at airports. Andrea Carzana Although there is a drive to invest If the demand is to remain, it is surely in solutions such as hydrogen and Portfolio Manager, better to look at changing how planes Threadneedle Sustainable Outcomes electricity, for now the focus is on SAF. are powered. This turns the spotlight Pan-European Equity strategy Figure 1: Aviation fuel demand and country oil demand Million barrels per day We are now less than a decade out from the self-imposed deadline set by 2050 14.2 U.S. 20.5 many companies to become carbon neutral by 2030. Similarly, the 2050 deadline set by many countries to 2040 10.7 China 13.7 achieve this is looming into view. Big strides will need to be made in 2030 8.1 India 4.8 order to achieve these targets. But how? 2020 4.5 Japan 3.8 One sector that consumes massive amounts of natural resources, but in our opinion boasts the opportunity 2019 7.3 Germany 2.5 for realistic change, is aviation. Aviation fuel demand Total oil product demand 2019 Successfully reducing emissions would be a big win. In 2019 the sector Source: BloombergNEF, 2020. 7
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 Straight in the tank In 2019, aviation fuel was a 300 million Mandates tonne global market.6 The International We believe a major differentiation Air Transport Association’s fuel forum SAFs remain expensive, but between airlines and cars is the projects a 420 million tonne market by mandated blending could force the massive amount of capital tied up in 2030,7 and the World Economic Forum issue into the mainstream by the existing planes – these are assets predicts a rise to 510 million tonnes in mid-2020s. This means governments that are viable for the next 20-30 years 2040.8 The European Union accounts forcing a certain proportion of SAF and simply replacing them would be for around 20% of this total, and is fuel use by airlines. Some countries prohibitively expensive. Alongside targeting 14% of this amount for use are already moving on this: Sweden is this, the technology is too far out to with SAF, creating 11 million tonnes of mandating a minimum of 0.5% of SAF make them run on different fuels, demand by 2030 in Europe alone.9 in 2021, and France 1% in 2022.12 so the need is for something that Holland is considering regulation can go in the existing tank. SAF can. But it is not the size of the market which would see a 14% blend by SAF is made from waste destined for alone that makes SAF an exciting 2030.13 In the EU, the ReFuelEU landfill, such as used cooking oil and prospect. There is an increasing initiative is set to be announced in discarded animal fat, blended with desire within the aviation industry for July 2021, and will likely have a target existing fossil fuel. reform and regulation. First, firms that of blending levels of 2% in 2025 and have traditionally been devoted to 5% in 2030,14 while President Biden Although the SAF market is small and fossil fuels, such as oil refineries, are is being urged to introduce a pan-US early-phase, we see opportunities for exploring SAFs – after all, they too have 1% mandate.15 Once mandates are investors with a number of companies sustainability targets to hit. Second, introduced and begin to rise, and getting a foothold, among them the pandemic has offered a glimpse of regulations improve, scalability will Neste,4 the world’s largest producer a world with lower carbon emissions, lead to reduced costs and even greater of renewable diesel and sustainable but also made us realise not enough adoption – a virtuous circle. aviation fuel refined from waste and is being done, which has pushed residues,5 and renewable solutions sustainability up airlines’ agendas. On top of government support, firm UPM. Numerous airlines now say they are SAF requires end-consumer pressure to aiming to reduce their emission to develop. Passengers and corporates, under pressure from increasingly Market size and penetration zero by 2050, and achieving carbon ESG-aware investors, can engage with neutrality by 2035 – as JetBlue’s CFO In our view, sustainable aviation is said, they would rather be driving the airline companies to encourage them the only way the aviation sector’s bus than be hit by it.10 Neste has to reduce their carbon footprint and will emissions can be brought down in signed deals with a number of airlines accept temporary price hikes owing to the medium term, providing a bridge during the pandemic to increase the the cost. A 2% blend for a three-hour to technologies such as hydrogen and use of SAFs, including All Nippon flight is estimated to add US$2 to the electric planes which are decades out. Airlines.11 But the game changer is price of a ticket.16 This creates a massive market. regulation. 8
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 Investor opportunities To use an aviation analogy, SAFs 5 https://www.neste.com/about-neste/who-we-are/ business#9507dabd are taxiing on the runway, but with 6 IATA, 2021. For us investors this is an exciting technology, the right political will, 7 IATA, 2021. opportunity. We like to explore shareholder pressure and mandate 8 World Economic Forum, 2021. 9 Neste management presentation, February 2021. themes that play into the UN development, they can take off. 10 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable Sustainable Development Goals Change, 13 May 2021. (UN SDGs).17 The SAF market is directly 11 https://biofuels-news.com/news/neste-and-all- nippon-airways-collaborate-on-first-supply-of- linked to a number of these: sustainable-aviation-fuel-in-asia/ the Sustainable Transport element of 26 October 2020. 12 ISCC Global Sustainability Conference, UN SDG 11, Make cities and human February 2021. settlements inclusive, safe, resilient 13 https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ business-aviation/2020-03-06/dutch- and sustainable; the Sustainable government-targets-saf-blending-mandate-2023 Tourism element of UNSDG 12, 6 March 2020. Source: 14 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable Ensure sustainable consumption and Change, 13 May 2021. 1 BP, Statistical review of world energy, June 2020. production patterns; and UN SDG 13, 2 BloombergNEF, 2020. 15 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy- Take urgent action to combat climate 3 BloombergNEF, 2020. aviation-idUSKBN2AJ0LH, 19 February 2021. 4 The mention of specific companies should not be 16 Columbia Threadneedle analysis, 2021. change and its impacts. taken as an endorsement. 17 https://sdgs.un.org/goals 9
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 03 Country head focus – Switzerland Along with the unspoiled Alps, Three steps for sustainability finance is emblematic of Switzerland. The country’s banks and asset Firstly, by the autumn of 2021 the State managers, especially, are known for Secretariat for International Finance exporting finance all over the world, must propose changes to legislation counselling the world’s wealthy. In the for preventing “greenwashing”. 20th century fierce ingenuity made Secondly, the Federal Council Switzerland known for its banking recommended that financial market secrecy and hedge funds. Yet today its players publish methods and strategies financiers and fintech entrepreneurs for taking account of climate and are turning their minds to the environmental risks when managing development of sustainable finance. clients’ assets. Finally, recognising the need to transform the entire economy, This is partly through necessity: there companies in all sectors must Eva Maria Hintner is a rising bar of sustainable finance implement the recommendations of Country Head Switzerland regulation with which to comply, both the Taskforce on Climate-related in Switzerland and its export markets. Financial Disclosures. But also, many private banking and asset management clients are The momentum for sustainability highly sophisticated investors and was gathering even before this The country’s financiers philanthropists. For them, sustainable announcement. According to the 2020 Swiss Sustainable Investment and fintech entrepreneurs investing in its various forms is a Market Study, the value of sustainable natural extension of existing activities. are developing fresh ideas investments rose by almost two thirds With finance representing around – 62% – in 2019 to CHF 1.2 trillion, that are influencing the 10% of gross domestic product,1 equivalent to about a third of locally global evolution of the Swiss government is encouraging managed assets.3 While 2020’s fund sustainable finance local banks, asset managers and flows have yet to be announced, the insurers to move quickly on this. It growth rate is likely to have accelerated is keen for Swiss finance to remain if it has followed international trends,4 competitive, and to play a part in as rising awareness of environmental helping the country achieve its stated and social issues is boosting inflows goal of becoming carbon neutral by into sustainable investment funds all 2050. For that reason, Switzerland’s over the world. Federal Council introduced a three- pronged approach to making the Beyond banking and asset country a leading centre for sustainable management, Switzerland is an finance at the end of 2020.2 international insurance centre. 11
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 Like its peers everywhere, its insurers (DIBs) in education and healthcare. Exporting ideas and influence are under pressure to mitigate Its Quality Education India DIB, environmental, social and governance launched in 2018, sets out to improve As the shift to sustainable finance (ESG) risks, while also engaging the quality of learning and literacy in rapidly accelerates, so Swiss ingenuity with the companies they invest in to India, and in its first year reported is contributing new ideas, some of improve their actions if needed. achieving a 30% improvement in which may be copied elsewhere. The country’s best-known insurers, participating schools in the states It may not be the best-known country Zurich and Swiss Re, were ranked first of Delhi and Gujarat.9 for sustainable finance, but its financial and fifth respectively, in the insurance/ institutions and fintechs are quietly reinsurance sector of the Dow Jones Another field of innovation is pioneering ways to manage money Sustainability Indices.5 What’s more, Switzerland’s green fintech companies, sustainably. Meanwhile, its insurers almost nine in 10 (86%) of Swiss which are growing quickly from small also appear to be ahead of their peers. insurance companies include ESG beginnings.10 They are operating across fields ranging from providing As has always been the case, the criteria when making investment green financial products and analysing country’s financiers are exporting decisions, according to the 2019 ESG data, to providing insurance their ideas, exerting influence Sustainability Report of the Swiss solutions related to climate change. beyond its mountains that symbolise Insurance Association.6 environmental purity. That said, the country cannot claim One tangible example is Yova,11 to be at the forefront of all areas of which offers investments through a sustainable finance. For instance, the digital platform that aims to combine SIX Swiss Exchange only lists about sustainability with attractive returns. 40 sustainable bonds, with just half Its CEO, Tillmann Lang, is quoted on of them primary listings.7 the Finance Swiss website saying: Source: “People buy organic food, eco-friendly 1 https://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and- Country-Risks/Switzerland clothing, green power, switch from 2 https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/ From social finance to fintech planes to rail… They also want to documentation/media-releases.msg-id-81571. html, 11 December 2020. But while the country might not be invest sustainably. There aren’t so 3 https://www.sustainablefinance.ch/en/swiss- a juggernaut of sustainable finance, many good financial solutions out there sustainable-investment-market-study-2020-_ content---1--3037--35722.html, 8 June 2020. some of its nimbler organisations are for those who want their investments to 4 https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable- proving just as innovative as they were make a clear difference. Yova was set business/sustainable-fund-inflows-hit-record-high- up to provide sustainable investment q1-morningstar-2021-04-30/, 30 April 2021. in boosting their competitiveness in 5 https://finance.swiss/en/sustainable-finance/ previous eras. For instance, UBS took solutions for normal people.”12 6 SIA 2019 Sustainability Report, 5 June 2020. 7 https://www.six-group.com/dam/download/the- the step in 2020 of declaring that swiss-stock-exchange/listing/bonds/sustainable- Quite a few green fintechs collect sustainable investments would bonds-SIX.pdf, 2021. and analyse ESG data. For instance, 8 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display- be the default solution for private RepRisk is a pioneer in the application page-ndp/en-20200910-gwm-si.html, clients investing globally, becoming 10 September 2020. of machine learning to ESG data. 9 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display- the first major global financial Further evidence of the progress of page-ndp/en-20200910-gwm-si.html, institution to do so.8 10 September 2020. Switzerland’s fintechs in 2020 can be 10 https://finance.swiss/en/news-and-events/green- Further, the bank’s UBS Optimus seen in the Swiss Fintech Innovation fintech-takes-off-as-the-financial-sector-embraces- Lab joining forces with Stanford sustainability/, 7 December 2020. Foundation is innovative in the field 11 Mention of specific companies should not be of social finance, where philanthropy University to form the Global Centre taken as a recommendation to buy. for Sustainable Digital Finance. 12 https://finance.swiss/en/news-and-events/green- and sustainable investing converge, fintech-takes-off-as-the-financial-sector-embraces- pioneering Development Impact Bonds sustainability/, 7 December 2020. 12
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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 04 Funding Europe’s green infrastructure finance gap Benjamin Kelly Ingrid Edmund Senior Analyst, Global Research Senior Portfolio Manager Transformational plans for energy, Figure 1: Google Analytics returns for ESG phrases mobility and buildings require huge 120 amounts of private sector finance, inevitably opening up a new field of 100 attractive investment opportunities. Responsible Investment has 80 witnessed strong growth over the past five years. However, the past six 60 months have seen it embark on a much steeper trajectory. If we take a 40 Google Analytics view on worldwide searches for “ESG” (environmental, 20 social and governance) phrases, it peaked in March 2021 (Figure 1). This growth is also evident within 0 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 corporate transcripts with respect to the growing usage of ESG themes Source: Google Analytics, May 2021. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is peak popularity. A value of 50 means the term is half as popular. A zero means there was (Figure 2). insufficient data for this item. Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus Biodiversity Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts 14 Biofuel 3,500 Carbon Capture
100 80 Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 60 40 20 0 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 Figure 2: key RI themes increasingly mentioned in company transcripts Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus Biodiversity There has been growing interest in net zero, carbon Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts capture and carbon offsetting versus 4Q20 Biofuel 3,500 YoY change QoQ Change Carbon Capture Biodiversity 29% 33% Carbon Offset Biofuel 22% -1% 3,000 Circular Economy Carbon Capture 194% 67% 2,500 Decarbonization Carbon Offset 134% 72% Circular Economy 60% 4% Digital Tax 2,000 Decarbonisation 81% 49% Net Zero Digital Tax 56% 39% 1,500 Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicles 99% 51% Employee Satisfaction Employee Satisfaction 33% 31% ESG 34% 25% 1,000 EU Taxonomy EU Taxonomy 525% 39% Furlough Furlough 327% -29% 500 Green Deal Green Deal 46% 19% Hydrogen Hydrogen 258% 34% 0 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Net Zero 352% 107% Renewables 16% 7% Source: Alphasense and Morgan Stanley, as at April 2021. One of the enablers of this stellar This will not be achieved through new activity, with this positive multiplier 60 growth has been strong policy support, projects alone, developing existing effect persisting for at least four years particularly in Europe. The build out brownfield projects will be key to and the impact on economic activity of green infrastructure here is nothing supporting sustainable investment. being two to seven times larger than Losses if not ambitious. The European Union those associated with environmentally 40 among the first to commit to was For investors, Europe’s gargantuan detrimental measures. Growth appetite for green infrastructure Million jobs carbon neutrality – by 20501 – and has gone furthest in publishing investment investment will inevitably lead to plans to enable a green transition. significant investment opportunities. Policies driving 20 Some observers estimate that up to The Green Deal’s targets imply an transformation €7 trillion in infrastructure spending investment gap of around €470 billion a year through to 2030.4 This will not As Europe gears up to stimulate will be required over the next 30 years economic recovery from Covid-19, to achieve the EU’s stated goals, be bridged without major injections of private capital alongside state so its plans for green infrastructure of 0which around €3 trillion will come investment have increased. Joining 2019 from private sources.2Bioenergy spending and incentives,2030creating huge, Electricity Coal multi-year Oil and Gas investment opportunities. forces with the Green Deal, the EU But while 2050 may seem a distant Recovery Plan gives climate transition prospect, the EU does not plan to start Aside from environmental benefits, a central role in the continent’s its transformation slowly. The Green green infrastructure investment can blueprint for economic recovery and Deal, which is the cornerstone of the also accrue economic advantages growth, aiming to create the jobs of continent’s transition to a low-carbon through the stimulation of economic the future as well as positive climate future, aims to deliver a reduction of activity – a recent IMF5 paper and sustainability impacts, including 50%-55% in carbon emissions by concluded that every dollar spent on reduced emissions, greater energy 2030 compared with 1990 levels.3 carbon-neutral activities generates self-sufficiency and lower bills. more than a dollar of economic 15
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 To support its Green Deal agenda, Four major investment 2. Green mobility the EU originally intended to mobilise at least €1 trillion of public and private themes The transition to electric power for transport is a central element of the investment by 2030, but the stimulus Focusing specifically on European Green Deal, which stipulates that by package drawn up to address the infrastructure, the four most notable 2030 at least 30 million zero-emission economic impact of Covid-19 has investment themes are all central cars will be in use on Europe’s boosted this. The EU Recovery Plan’s elements of the Green Deal agenda. roads,11 high-speed rail travel will additional stimulus for the period 1. Renewable energy double across Europe and all 2021-27 is expected to total around scheduled mass transport for €1.85 trillion, roughly a quarter of The plan calls for a doubling of journeys of less than 500km should which could be allocated to climate electricity generation from renewable be carbon-neutral.12 For some transition-related investments.6 sources by 2030 to help meet its companies, these targets present Additionally, a €17.5 billion Just emissions reduction targets. This immediate opportunities to generate Transition Fund has been agreed as implies a major increase in European attractive returns. Rail equipment part of the Green Deal to mitigate the utility companies’ current rates of makers are well positioned to benefit economic and employment impacts of investment in renewable capacity and from the Green Deal, although an Europe’s climate transition.7 power grids. According to research accelerated transition to electric carried out by the consultancy vehicles will pose major challenges The EU’s Green Taxonomy will help AT Kearney, annual renewables for automakers that need to develop to drive private investment into green investment in Europe will rise from new vehicles and ensure access to infrastructure. This is an ambitious €60 billion in 2020 to €90 billion sufficient battery capacity. attempt to classify economic activities in 2022. By 2030, investment in according to their sustainability, and is European wind and solar capacity 3. Hydrogen as a future energy intended to influence the way private will total at least €650 billion and source capital is allocated, alongside the could reach €1 trillion.9 This is likely There is growing interest in hydrogen less prescriptive framework of the to boost utility valuations in Europe as a clean energy source, although it 17 UN Sustainable Development significantly, particularly given the big remains expensive relative to others. Goals (SDGs). Globally, the effort increase in demand that will result The cost of so-called “green hydrogen” to achieve the SDGs could create from the replacement of fossil fuels – made using renewable electricity to more than $12 trillion in market with electricity in transportation. It will power electrolysis of water opportunities8 across four key areas – also flow through to rising profits at – has fallen thanks to dramatically health and wellbeing, cities, energy equipment makers such as Danish cheaper renewable energy, and materials and food and agriculture. turbine maker Vestas, which reported but remains seven times higher than return on capital employed last year fossil fuels. Hydrogen is also difficult of around 20%.10 16
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 to store and transport.13 However, awarded £72 million in funding, partly used for heating and cooling of 18%. it has major potential in areas where from the UK government, to finance a To achieve this it aims to double the electrification is not feasible, such as hydrogen carbon capture and storage renovation rate of buildings to 2% over heavy industry, trucks, shipping and (CCS) project. It is hoped the fresh the next decade, which will require seasonal energy storage, and the EU capital will accelerate the project to a investment of €275 billion a year. aims to grow the share of hydrogen final investment decision by 2023 in Energy efficiency standards will also in the bloc’s energy mix from less order for the initial phase to become be tightened.19 than 2% currently to 13%-14% by operational by 2025.17 These themes are consistent with the 2050.14 To realise this potential, major 4. Building stock opportunities we are seeing in the policy support will be necessary to infrastructure space, in particular in the encourage investment. The European Around three-quarters of the 220 past 12 months those themes linked Commission estimates the carbon million buildings in the EU are deemed to methods of decarbonisation such as price under the EU’s Emissions Trading energy inefficient.18 The EU’s Covid-19 carbon capture, and solutions around Scheme will need to rise from around recovery plan will channel major decarbonsiation (both brownfield and €30 currently to €55-€90 a tonne.15 investment into upgrading them, given greenfield), namely hydrogen and Examples of projects getting underway that buildings account for 36% of the carbon offsetting. include Ørsted building a 1GW green EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and hydrogen plant in the Dutch North 40% of energy consumption. The plan’s Thus, the supportive policy backdrop Sea, which is slated for operations by key targets call for a 60% reduction is presenting sustainability-focused 2030;16 and in the UK Cadent’s HyNet in greenhouse gas emissions from openings within the small mid-cap North West project, which has been buildings by 2030 and a cut in energy nexus. 17
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 Decarbonisation and EVs continue to be areas of focus Biodiversity Mentions of ESG Themes in event transcripts Don’t forget social! utmost importance, and strategies Source: Biofuel to 1 https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ 3,500 ensure positive social outcomes strategies/2050_en are Carbon Capture This rapid move towards net zero embedded in our business plans. 2 Goldman Sachs Equity Research: The EU Green creates Carbon Offset 3,000 a risk that some people are Deal, July 2020. 3 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/ left behind – perhaps those without the Looking forward, Europe’sCircular drive Economy to detail/en/IP_20_1599 opportunity 2,500 to reskill into low-carbon green its economy will lead to a new Decarbonization 4 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/ industries or unable to access the range of opportunities in infrastructure economy-finance/assessment_of_economic_and_ Digital Tax investment_needs.pdf benefits 2,000 of the new energy system. investment. Indeed, Europe’s 5 IMF.org, Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Net Zero The Just Transition acknowledges the policymakers are aware that they Spending Multipliers?, 19 March 2021. Electric Vehicles 6 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/recovery-plan- social 1,500 implications of delivering net cannot achieve their zero-carbon goals europe_en zero, from jobs and training to working without attracting private investment. Employee Satisfaction 7 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/ detail/en/IP_20_2354 with 1,000communities and ensuring no Given the Green Deal’s ambitious EU Taxonomy 8 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sg- one is left behind (Figure 3). Working timeline over the next 10 years, now finance-strategy/ Furlough 9 https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/ with 500our portfolio companies – and any is the time to be exploring the major Green Deal energie/energiewirtschaft-bis-zu-eine-billion- future ones – to ensure we create a investment themes. euro-fuer-oekostrom-energiekonzerne-planen- just 0transition for employees is of the Hydrogen rekordinvestitionen/26727336.html 10 https://www.vestas.com/~/media/vestas/ Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 investor/investor%20pdf/financial%20 reports/2019/q4/2019_annual_report.pdf 11 Reuters, EU to target 30 million electric cars by Figure 3: Global employment in energy supply in the net-zero pathway, 2030, 4 December 2020. 12 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ 2019-2030 TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0789 13 https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen- 60 storage-challenges 14 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/ hydrogen_strategy.pdf 15 https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/ Losses news/2020/08/03/10537257/eu-hydrogen- strategy-could-cause-power-and-carbon-prices-to- 40 drop Growth 16 https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/04/01/ Million jobs orsted-to-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-hydrogen- plants-at-north-sea-port/ 17 https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic- development/72m-funding-announced-hynet- 20 north-20193274 18 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/ eu_renovation_wave_strategy.pdf 19 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/ eu_renovation_wave_strategy.pdf 0 2019 2030 Bioenergy Electricity Coal Oil and Gas Source: International Energy Agency, 2019. 18
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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 05 Biden’s strong commitment on climate change Natalia Luna Brian Aronson Senior Thematic Investment Analyst, Equity analyst Responsible Investment The US president’s “American President Joe Biden’s first months boost clean energy generation and in the White House fully reflect his US-made electric vehicles (EVs), as well Jobs Plan” aims to fulfill his administration’s commitment to as modest support for renovations campaign pledges on climate pursuing a transition to a low carbon of buildings. At the heart of this economy. Biden has rejoined the Paris approach is the Infrastructure Bill – change – if he can get it Agreement and recently announced a $2 trillion wish-list of measures to through Congress a highly ambitious target to reduce get the US on the path to net-zero emissions by half by 2030.1 emissions by 2050. The infrastructure proposal includes support for low In a landmark proposal announced in carbon technologies and core targets March, Biden’s $2.25 trillion American relating to climate change. Jobs Plan,2 or Infrastructure Plan, broadly addresses his campaign Biden unveiled a wide-ranging set of pledges on climate change, even going spending and tax incentive proposals, further than expected in some areas. mostly over an eight-year period, While there may be compromises focused on infrastructure, climate around the final numbers to get the adaptation and social initiatives. plan through Congress, it aims to Broadly speaking, the plan sets out 20
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 to improve infrastructure, create jobs, storage (CCS), as well as $100 billion capital spending. The Biden proposal foster innovation and accelerate the in investments for upgrading power specifically references transmission transition to a zero-carbon economy. infrastructure. investments, as higher voltage lines It has three priorities for supporting are needed to move green electricity the energy transition: accelerating A proposed 10-year extension of tax from larger wind or solar sites to load the shift to a clean power sector; credits for wind, solar and fuel cells centres. What’s more, any measures the electrification of transport; and goes far beyond the two years of that smooth the siting process for the renovation of energy-inefficient incentives previously introduced in transmission projects will encourage the buildings. While there will be December 2020, in a move that would construction of new projects. This major compromises ahead in order to get accelerate the clean energy transition. investment programme looks positive the plan through Congress, if passed Under the proposal developers of new for electrical equipment manufacturers, it should accelerate the US energy renewable energy projects would be as well as select engineering and transition, with positive implications able to immediately realise the cash construction companies. for the long-term growth of the sectors value of tax credits, helping their cash that will help to decarbonise the US flows. Utility companies may also But there are also losers: Biden’s plan economy. benefit, albeit less directly, as the tax would eliminate fossil fuel subsidies credits are likely to lower the cost of for oil and gas companies. However, renewable energy for consumers. Lower this was not unexpected. Turbocharging clean power consumer bills tend to ease relations between utilities and state regulators, Notably, the plan sets out a goal paving the way for higher capital Empowering clean transport of generating entirely carbon-free electricity by 2035, which was a Biden spending by utilities, boosting growth. Turning to clean transport, the greatest campaign pledge. It backs this through emphasis in Biden’s proposals is on Also favourable for utilities is the $100 galvanising the US-made EV market. surprisingly generous tax incentives for billion earmarked for upgrading power The plan earmarks $174 billion for the renewables and carbon capture and infrastructure, which again supports sector, notably to be spent on installing 21
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 500,000 EV chargers by 2030, which railway funding will help delivery and Waiting on Congress is a modest positive surprise. When rail companies shift their fleets toward combined with a potential $7,500 clean transport. The Biden plan as it stands is a subsidy for each consumer buying a significant shift from the policies of US-made EV, this could be significant, the previous administration and, if giving consumers confidence in the Making buildings energy implemented, should accelerate the charging infrastructure and making the efficient greening of US power, transport and cost of EVs competitive versus internal buildings – despite the absence of Reflecting Biden’s modest campaign combustion engines. The combination some campaign pledges, such as pledge to kick-start a gradual of these two measures adds 15%-30% tangible plans about green hydrogen renovation of buildings, the plan to Columbia Threadneedle forecasts and details of how agriculture will be proposes spending $213 billion on for annual lithium demand from 2021- decarbonised. improving energy efficiency. Buildings 2025 and could support companies account for roughly 10% of US But that is a big “if”. It now falls to positioned to address that increased emissions and a third of the country’s Congress to translate the plan to demand. energy consumption, according to the legislation. It is highly likely that some The plan’s clean transport initiatives US Energy Information Administration of the provisions are not passed or will also include a proposed $111 billion (EIA).3 The money will be spent on be altered. for water infrastructure, including retrofitting 2 million affordable homes, modernising ageing water systems, building 500,000 new homes and as well as investments for modernising retrofitting more than a million homes public transit and rail systems, and with energy-efficient upgrades. reinforcing the resilience of critical These goals would be accomplished infrastructure to the consequences through the extension and expansion of climate change. Investments for of home and commercial efficiency airports and ports are intended credits, along with the establishment to make the US a global leader in of a $27 billion “Clean Energy and clean freight and aviation, while the Sustainability Accelerator” to mobilise investment in water infrastructure private investment. There is also a may help companies with products proposal for energy renovation projects that support efficient water transport, in public buildings. filtration and treatment. Meanwhile, $25 billion in airport funding and Major beneficiaries of the drive to $17 billion in waterway funding, make the US building stock greener are coupled with other more traditional heating, ventilation and air conditioning Source: 1 The Guardian, Biden vows to slash US emissions infrastructure spending, should benefit companies. They will play a major part by half to meet ‘existential crisis of our time’, construction equipment companies. in renovations, significantly reducing 22 April 2021. 2 https://www.whitehouse.gov/american-jobs-plan/ Alongside this, $85 billion in public electricity consumption and replacing 3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/ transit funding and $80 billion in harmful refrigerants. faqphp?id=86&t=1 22
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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 06 Climate change, net zero and the employment myth entitled “Getting to Zero”1 caught our of Economics’ Grantham Institute, attention. It has been cited under which raised important questions press headlines suggesting that as about it.2 The need for caution about many as 10 million UK jobs would be the methodology used, as well as the at risk from the UK’s transition to net failure to understand wider changes zero over the next three decades. taking place or the job creation potential Is that really the potential implication of policy responses to climate change, of the UK’s decarbonisation plan? is important. We think not. Current longer-term employment issues do need to be considered in Will net zero boost the context of an “industrial” revolution employment growth? that is already playing out and likely to be accelerated by the effects of the Iain Richards A good starting point here is a coronavirus pandemic. Digitisation Head of Global Responsible commentary on the report published and automation are examples of this Investment Policy by Alex Brown at the London School and more than 80% of CEOs surveyed Figure 1: Jobs created per $1 million invested The world is changing and not just because of climate change. How companies and governments respond to the change will have significant implications, economically and competitively as well as for employment, which we will focus on in this article. As a research-driven investment house, identifying, analysing and understanding the trends and changes that impact, or will impact, our investments is at the heart of our “thematic” research focus. It was in that context that a recent UK report Source: Joseph Stiglitz, et al. ‘Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?’, May 2020. 24
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 by the WEF3 reported that they are reflects a strong trend we were Figure 2: EU employment growth accelerating the automation of their seeing in the US before the Paris projections by sector work processes and expanding Agreement withdrawal. their use of remote work. That has n In contrast, the mining sector faces 2030 (%) implications for employment, but not a substantial fall in employment Agriculture 0.5 the way some people think. Let’s start reflecting lower production in the Mining -16.6 with some context on climate change: energy extraction sector. Manufacturing 0.7 Utilities -2.4 Framing the scale of the economic n The implications are, of course, Construction 1.1 not just for employment but challenge4 Distribution, retail and hotels and catering 0.6 also countries’ economic Transport and communications 0.5 Scientists have estimated that were competitiveness. Business servies 0.7 temperature increases to reach three However, under the same analysis Non-business services 0.3 degrees celsius global GDP would fall 25%. If they reached four degrees the US’s outlook under the Trump Source: FOME energy scenario projections, 2020. the decline would be more than 30% administration, having rejected the climate leadership was clear. With job compared to 2010 levels. That is Paris Agreement, was not looking so creation spanning energy efficiency, comparable to the Great Depression, rosy. That stood in stark contrast to transportation, renewable energy, but the difference is that the impact what we were seeing ahead of the waste reduction, natural resources would be permanent. then president’s announced withdrawal conservation and education, the effect from Paris. Compared to the EU’s Framing the upside alternative5 was significant – even before exploring 1.1% boost to GDP, the US faced an the innovation and job creation being estimated 3.4% contraction in GDP by I’ll start here at a more regional level, seen across other sectors. At the time 2030 and a 1.6% hit to its job market.7 given differences that are evident. it was estimated that in the US such It has been estimated that the EU’s The “pre-Paris withdrawal” boost jobs collectively numbered around GDP would benefit to the tune of being seen in US economic activity 4-4.5 million jobs;8 and, relative to 1.1% by 2030 should it successfully and related jobs growth linked to US jobs in coal mining,9 many of these implement the Paris Agreement and transition towards a low-carbon economy. That is merely a result of Figure 3: Electric power generation employment by technology increased investment activity and lower (Q2 2015-Q1 2016) imports of fossil fuels, before we look at any other benefits. 400,000 373,807 In terms of employment, the 350,000 associated upside growth in 300,000 300,192 EU employment is, at the more conservative end of the scale, around 250,000 Oil: 12,840 0.5%. That is approaching an extra Natural Gas: 52,125 200,000 Coal: 86,035 million jobs compared to business as usual. The employment implications do 150,000 135,898 vary by country, as well as by sector:6 101,738 100,000 77,088 Bioenergy: 7,980 56,259 68,176 n Services sectors, for example, CHP: 18,034 52,845 56,185 50,000 35,980 36,117 32,695 benefit from both increased 19,559 19,396 7,645 5,768 8,608 9,295 consumer activity but also as part 0 Solar Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear Fossil Advanced Other of the supply chain of renewables Gas /CHP Hydro Hydro and energy efficiency equipment 2015 2016 and installation processes. This Source: US Department of Energy, US Energy and Employment Report, January 2017. 25
200,000 Coal: 86,035 150,000 135,898 Responsible Investment Quarterly 101,738 – Q1 2021 100,000 77,088 Bioenergy: 7,980 56,259 68,176 CHP: 18,034 52,845 56,185 50,000 35,980 36,117 32,695 19,559 19,396 7,645 5,768 8,608 9,295 0 Solar Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear Fossil Advanced Other /CHP Hydro Hydro Gas 2015 2016 400,000 373,807 350,000 300,192 300,000 250,000 Oil: 12,840 Natural Gas: 52,125 200,000 Coal: 86,035 Figure 4: Perceived barriers to the adoption of new technologies 26 economies it examined – a net gain 150,000 of 12 million jobs.135,898 Education, training Skills gaps in the local labour market 55.4 and the re-skilling of the workforce 101,738 Inability to attract specialised talent 100,000 46.7Bioenergy: 7,980 77,088 will be56,259critical issues 68,176 in this context. Skills gaps among organisation’s leadership 41.4 CHP: 18,034 52,845 56,185 50,000 Reflecting that, corporate 35,980planning 36,117 32,695 Insufficient understanding of opportunities 38.9 19,559 on future investment and operations 19,396 7,645 5,768 8,608 9,295 Lack of flexibility of the regulatory framework 0 33.0 Solar will be influenced by the availability Other of Shortage of investment capital Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Low impact Traditional Nuclear Fossil Advanced 32.3 the right /CHP Hydro Hydro skills and talent. It is Gasnot the Lack of flexibility in hiring and firing 26.3 2015companies 2016 that embrace change that Lack of interest among leadership 17.9 lose out. As recent historical evidence Other 5.3 tells us, companies that automate 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 will survive, prosper and hire more Share of companies surveyed (%) workers. Those that don’t will end up Source: WEF, Future of Jobs Report 2020, October 2020. shedding staff (Figure 5).15 were inherently local, contributing (ALMPs12) an important focus for The priority for policymakers, then, is to growth in their local economies. policymakers. The need for, and how to facilitate the changes needed Comparing what was being seen merit of, initiatives such as the EU’s to support those who will adapt and with160 jobs directly associated with SkillsSkills gaps in13the Agenda islocal labour clear. In market be tomorrow’s winners – this reflects laying 55.4 Number of workers (1998=100) US electric power generation the the foundations to support talent Inability to attract specialised the challenge faced by economies 46.7 future Skills gaps among organisation’s leadership 41.4 significance 140 of energy transition for competitiveness and address key across the OECD and beyond. Although Insufficient understanding of opportunities 38.9 US employment was clear:10 challenges, the World Economic economic outcomes over the past 120 Lack of flexibility of the regulatory framework 33.0 Forum’s work highlights some of the 20 years have varied widely and Coming back to the UK’s transition to Shortage of investment capital 32.3 challenges policymakers need to net 100 zero, there are clearly employment employment has risen, wages have not Lack of flexibility in hiring and firing 26.3 consider (Figure 4).14 only stagnated for many but the costs implications that were largely in line Lack of interest among leadership 17.9 with 80 the EU average. Rather than there The WEF estimates that by Other 2025 5.3 of housing, healthcare and, notably being an impending job disaster, there 85 million jobs may be displaced, 0 10 in this 20context, 30education 40 have50risen, 60 1990 1994 1998 are in fact very real opportunities on 2002 2006 2010 while 97 million new roles may 2014 more than Share of offsetting companies income surveyed (%) gains. 16 Robot adopters Non-adopters offer for the UK and seizing that in a emerge across the 15 industries and post-Covid and post-Brexit world will be important. Figure 5: Robots in the workplace The UK’s adoption of climate- relevant approaches as part of a 160 Number of workers (1998=100) strategic approach to economic stimulus and recovery11 will have 140 important and positive implications for both job creation and long-term 120 competitiveness. As part of this, the need for policymakers to embrace 100 “inclusive growth”, taking account of the trends playing out, should not be 80 underestimated. The rebalancing we 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 expect to see in the jobs market will Robot adopters Non-adopters make active labour market policies Source: Michael Koch, et al. “Robots and firms”, July 2019. 26
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 Conclusion change, help recovery post-Covid and Source: 1 Onward, Getting to zero: A practical policy benefit from real upside opportunities. commission to deliver decarbonisation in the UK, For investors, understanding the issues Our world and economies are already January 2021. and challenges companies will face changing – economic, technological 2 Net-zero: bad for UK jobs?, 15 January 2021. 3 WEF, The Future of Jobs Report 2020. in securing the right skills, expertise and societal change are a reality and 4 Nature, Large Potential Reduction in Economic and talent needed to respond to these the effects of Covid will accelerate the Damages Under UN Mitigation Targets, changes will be important. The focus 2 November 2020. changes we are seeing. Companies 5 Eurofound, Energy scenario: Employment on, and approach to, education and and governments will either rise to implications of the Paris Climate Agreement, training by policymakers will play an 12 February 2019. the challenge they face or fail their 6 FOME energy scenario projections, 2020. important role in this at a national level. stakeholders. 7 Eurofound, Energy scenario: Employment implications of the Paris Climate Agreement, The right long-term policy approaches, For countries such as the UK, 12 February 2019. 8 EDF Climate Corps and Meister Consultants Group, combined with and facilitating forward- recognising these dynamics and taking December 2017. looking programs by companies, advantage of them will be critical to 9 The coal industry, which had shed jobs since 2012 given competition from cheap natural gas, will help sow the seeds for success. pursuing the right policy options and employed just over 160,000 workers nationwide, of Corporate initiatives such as SSE’s ensuring their future prosperity and which about 53,000 were in mining, according to a Supporting a Just Transition17 or AT&Ts January 2017 US Energy and Employment Report competitiveness. from the US Department of Energy. Future Program18 already illustrate 10 US Department of Energy, US Energy and strategic approaches to business Employment Report, January 2017. 11 Joseph Stiglitz, et al. Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery adaptation and investment in the packages accelerate or retard progress on climate future. That said, for many companies change?, May 2020. 12 Luca Sartorio, et al, What works for Active Labor unilateral solutions – absent the right Market Policies?, July 2019. policy environment and support – may 13 https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1223 14 WEF, The Future of Jobs Report 2020, not be viable. October 2020. 15 Michael Koch, et al, Robots and firms, July 2019. With all these factors at play, one thing 16 McKinsey Global Institute, The social contract in that is clear is that the Paris Agreement the 21st century. 17 SSE, https://www.sse.com/media/xtrlsctj/ should not be seen as a threat to just-transition-strategy-sse-final.pdf, employment; if anything the opposite 18 November 2020. 18 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/atts-1- is true. It represents an opportunity – billion-gambit-retraining-nearly-half-its-workforce. both to mitigate the impacts of climate html, 13 March 2018. 27
Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q1 2021 STEWARDSHIP IN ACTION Our stewardship activities are The research and analysis While analysing meeting agendas integral to our investment process, emerging from this, and the ongoing and making voting decisions, allowing us to detect inflection engagement with companies, is we use a range of research points and long-term trends, and disseminated globally throughout sources and consider various ESG influence companies’ standards the firm as part of our culture of issues, including companies’ risk around ESG risk management research intensity and helps us management practices and evidence and sustainable outcomes. A key identify potential issues at an of any controversies. focus is to enhance our investment early stage. research so that we can make Our final voting decisions take informed capital allocation decisions In prioritising our engagement work, account of research issued by proxy as active investors. we focus our efforts on the more advisory organisations such as financially material or contentious ISS, IVIS and Glass Lewis, as well The ultimate goal of our stewardship issues and themes, and the as MSCI ESG Research. Although approach is to enhance our issuers in which we have large we subscribe to proxy advisors’ understanding of our exposure holdings. There are many companies research, votes are determined to risks and opportunities that with which we have ongoing under our own custom voting policy. may affect our ability to deliver engagements, as well as a number Votes are cast identically across all sustainable long-term value for that we speak to on a more ad hoc mandates for which we have voting clients. In approaching these basis, as concerns or issues arise. authority. All our voting decisions responsibilities we are mindful are available for inspection on of market trends; company, local We vote actively at company our website seven days after market and industry-specific issues; meetings. We view this as one each company meeting in EMEA/ and relevant best-practice standards of the most effective ways to APAC, and are updated annually in – but we will ultimately be guided signal approval (or otherwise) September in the US. by what is in the best long-term of a company’s governance, economic interests of our clients. management, board and strategy, or standards of operating practice. 28
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