REBUILD NEW ZEALAND: RETAIL - AUGUST 2020 - PWC
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Retail in New Zealand: an overview New Zealand’s retail sector has a turnover of $57.8bn per annum 1 It comprises and employs c.27,000 businesses c.220,000 New Zealanders Retailers are one of the largest constituents of commercial tenants, providing a significant source of income to private landlords, real estate syndicates and some of New Zealand’s largest pension funds. “ The COVID-19 restrictions will mean that the survival of many retail businesses is on a knife-edge. The wage subsidy has effectively kept many people employed in retail, and has helped support consumer spending, but it is likely that we will see reduced consumer spending and redundancies across the sector when that subsidy runs out. Greg Harford – Chief Executive – Retail NZ2 1 Source: Stats NZ 2 5 August 2020. 01 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
New Zealand must focus on local retailers as the foundation of a sector recovery strategy COVID-19 is the most significant challenge in a generation for consumer-facing businesses. In recent months, retailers have worked tirelessly to feed the country, look after their staff and customers and remain solvent. They must now turn to the future and look for ways to embed resilience, capitalise on accelerating consumer trends and integrate different business models. Retail – a barometer on the wider economy Individual retailers’ experiences during the As a sector, retail has benefited both directly COVID-19 restrictions and prospects going and indirectly from the Government’s Wage forward continue to vary substantially. Subsidy Scheme. However, with the current When the country entered Alert Level 4 in scheme due to end on 1 September (and the late March, supermarket sales were up and recently announced extension expiring on panic-buying left many grocery shelves 14 September) and our borders remaining empty. Those with online capabilities and closed, the economic outlook is uncertain. whose products were deemed ‘essential’ also We take a look at the numbers that paint a fared well. For other retailers, including those picture of the retail trading environment since with a limited online proposition or reliant on the arrival of COVID-19 and consider what international visitors, it remains a different recent developments in consumer sentiment story with growing signs of a ‘two-speed’ retail may tell us about what lies ahead for the environment. These considerations and the retail sector. risks to the financial viability of New Zealand’s retailers have become all the more stark as the country and Auckland (as the largest contributor to GDP), in particular, are forced back into more restrictive levels of lockdown. 3 Similar scenes were also witnessed when the Auckland region entered Alert Level 3 on 12 August 2020. August 2020 | 02
Volatile consumer confidence Uncertainty around the economic impact of – roughly where it troughed in 2008 following COVID-19, changes in lockdown restrictions and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Consumer what that means for employment is affecting confidence rebounded 8 and 12 points in confidence in the economy and personal May and June respectively, but was basically finances. Based on the ANZ-Roy Morgan unchanged in July, remaining well below long- Consumer Confidence Survey, consumer term historical averages (having recovered about confidence fell 21 points in April to 84.8 half its fall, but still sitting at around 2009 levels). House price outcomes and expectations 20.0% 7.0% 6.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 4.0% Annual % change Annual % change 5.0% 3.0% - 2.0% (5.0%) 1.0% (10.0%) - (15.0%) (1.0%) Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 House price inflation (LHS) Consumer house price expectations (RHS) ANZ Consumer Confidence "Good time to buy a major household item" and retail sales 80 10.0% 8.0% 60 6.0% 40 4.0% Annual % change 2.0% 20 Net % - - (2.0%) (20) (4.0%) (6.0%) (40) (8.0%) (60) (10.0%) Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Good time to buy major household item (LHS) Retail sales (RHS) Source: ANZ Research, Roy Morgan – 31 July 2020. Retail sector data 18082020.xlsx PwC Sheet1 03 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Consumer Confidence was steady in July. It “ has made back around half its fall, but seems to have run out of puff for now...The global economy is in strife, and our doors are shut to international tourists and students. Our national income is now lower, and while it won’t hit people evenly, it will hurt. ANZ Research, Roy Morgan – 31 July 2020 Trends in household spending While expenditure on major household items The volatility in consumer spending habits initially recovered strongly after we moved out can be seen in the Stats NZ electronic card of Alert Level 4 in June, the net proportion of transactions series data that includes all debit, households who think it’s a good time to buy a credit, and charge card transactions with major household item gave up 5 points in July, New Zealand-based merchants. Through our falling to 0% (a recessionary level), suggesting analysis and data visualisation dashboards (and the unexpected post-lockdown recovery in retail commented elsewhere), it is readily apparent spending may fade quite rapidly. The concern that year on year consumer spend on durables4 is that consumer sentiment and spending now exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels, e.g. durables levels deteriorate as households spend their spending for July 2020 was up $259 million involuntary lockdown savings (and for some, or 20% (compared to July 2019). Interestingly, their international holiday budgets), the novelty the recovery in hospitality5 continues with of ‘supporting local’ fades, Government spending on food and beverage services for support/subsidies decline, a further period the month of July increasing $92 million (+11%) of lockdown restrictions is required and year on year, while accommodation services unemployment increases. continue to suffer due to the border restrictions with spending down $30 million (-16%) for the New Zealand has delivered a strong health same period. While some of the year on year response that has been globally recognised. figures are encouraging, year to date spending Unfortunately, our elimination strategy may highlights the economic impact of lockdown, also prove to be our Achilles’ heel as many e.g. year to date electronic spending in the countries continue to struggle with the virus hospitality and apparel sectors is down -22.3% and the re-opening of our international and -18.7%, respectively. borders, e.g. the ‘Australasian bubble’, appears increasingly unlikely. Despite the increase From a retail sector perspective, the concern in domestic tourism during the July school remains that more challenges lie ahead as holidays, the outlook for tourism remains consumer confidence stalls, unemployment challenging. Jobs lost in the tourism sector increases, household incomes decline, contact won’t be easily replaced, with the impact falling fear becomes more widespread (in the event of particularly heavily outside the major cities in further evidence of community transfer) and the towns such as Queenstown and Rotorua. true impact of COVID-19 works its way through the New Zealand economy. 4 Furniture, electrical, and hardware, recreational goods, department stores, 5 Accommodation, food pharmaceutical, cosmetic, toiletry goods and other store-based retailing. and beverage services. August 2020 | 04
Durables - Change in spending last 12 months Increase Decrease Total Other 0.48bn 2.16bn 2.0bn 0.23bn 1.68bn 0.16bn 1.60bn 1.55bn 0.15bn 1.44bn 1.08bn 1.44bn 1.43bn 1.36bn 1.35bn 1.5bn -0.05bn 0.02bn 1.30bn 1.29bn 1.29bn -0.73bn -0.07bn -0.01bn -0.01bn Value 1.0bn 0.36bn 0.5bn -0.99bn 0.0bn ly s st s er s er s be r s be r s ry s ry s rch s ril s y s ne s ly Ju ble gu ble mb ble tob ble ble ble ua ble ua ble ble Ap ble Ma rable Ju ble Ju 20bn 19 ra Au ra ra Oc ra em ra em ra an ra br ra Ma ra ra 20 ra 20 20 Du 19 Du pte Du Du ov Du ec Du 0J Du Fe Du 20 Du 20 20 Du 20 Du 20 Du 20 Se 19 9N 9D 02 20 20 20 20 9 20 1 1 2 0 2 01 20 20 2 Hospitality - Change in spending last 12 months Increase Decrease Total Other 0.05bn 0.08bn 1.25bn 0.18bn 1.11bn 0.07bn 1.11bn 1.2bn 1.21bn -0.03bn 0.02bn 1.07bn 1.05bn 1.05bn 1.16bn 1.16bn -0.06bn 0.31bn 0.93bn -0.03bn 1.0bn 0.82bn 0.8bn -0.33bn 0.56bn 0.62bn Value 0.6bn 0.4bn 0.2bn -0.77bn 0.06bn 0.0bn ly lity st lity r ity r lity r ty r ty ry ty ry ty ty il ty y lity lity ly Ju gu be tal be be ali be ali ua ali ua ali rch ali pr ali Ma Ju ne Ju 20bn ita Au ita tem ospi cto ita em pit em pit an pit br pit Ma pit 0A pit ita ita 19 sp sp sp ov os ec os os Fe os os 02 os 20 sp 20 sp 20 20 Ho 0 19 Ho S ep H 1 9O Ho N H D H 2 0J H 0 H 0 20 H 2 H 20 Ho 20 Ho 20 2 9 2 0 1 9 1 9 2 0 02 2 1 0 0 2 20 2 2 Source: Stats NZ, PwC New Zealand In terms of what to look out for, our dashboard highlights a strong correlation between: 1. Consumer expectations of economic 2. Consumer attitudes towards buying a major conditions in the next 12 months (Q3. ANZ household item (Q5. ANZ Research, Roy Research, Roy Morgan Survey) and total Morgan Survey) and electronic spending on electronic spending (as measured monthly by durables (as measured monthly by Stats NZ). Stats NZ); and 05 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Consumer Economic Expectations Actual electronic spending Household sentiment - next 12 months 30 8bn 6bn 20 4bn 10 2bn 0bn 0 ly st er er er er ry ry h ril y e ly st er er er er ry ry h ril y e ly Ju gu mb tob mb mb ua rua arc Ap Ma Jun Ju gu mb tob mb mb ua rua arc Ap Ma Jun Ju 0 18 8 Au pte Oc ove ece Jan F eb 9 M 019 019 19 019 9 Au pte Oc ove ece Jan F eb 0 M 020 020 20 020 2 01 Se 18 N D 19 9 1 2 2 20 2 01 Se 19 N D 20 0 2 2 2 20 2 2 18 20 18 18 20 01 20 2 19 20 19 19 20 02 20 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 Attitude Towards Major Household Spend Actual spending on household durables Sentiment toward major household item purchases 2.5bn 50 2.0bn 1.5bn 0 1.0bn 0.5bn -50 0.0bn t r r r r l t r r r r l uly us be be be be ary ary rch pri ay une uly us be be be be ary ary rch pri ay une uly 1 8 J Aug tem cto vem cem anu ebru Ma 19 A 19 M 9 J 19 J Aug tem cto vem cem anu ebru Ma 20 A 20 M 0 J 20 J O J 1 O 20 018 Se 18 No De 19 9 F 01 20 20 20 20 019 Se 19 No De 20 0 F 02 20 20 202 20 p 9 p J 0 2 18 20 18 18 20 01 2 2 19 20 19 19 20 02 2 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 Source: ANZ Research – Roy Morgan, Stats NZ and PwC New Zealand The ANZ Research-Roy Morgan Consumer early insights in relation to the longer-term Confidence Survey is likely to be closely watched consequences of declining Government support, by industry participants in coming months, our borders remaining closed, community e.g. the correlation between July’s decline in transfer concerns, growing unemployment and attitudes towards major household spend and declining household incomes. electronic spending on durables, providing August 2020 | 06
Consumer behaviour “ A new generation of cautious consumers Household debt, financial hardship and ‘contact fear’ will dictate consumer behaviour and test trust during the recovery phase. During lockdown, consumers have learnt ...consumers new shopping habits and will be more cautious, digitally aware and likely to change have learnt new their spending patterns to reflect their new shopping habits economic reality. and will be more cautious, digitally Pivoting back to savings aware and likely When faced with economic uncertainty, households tend to increase savings. This, in to change their turn, slows the recovery rate for businesses spending patterns in the short-to-medium term. The GFC saw savings increased by 10% of disposable to reflect their new income and consumption drastically decreased. economic reality. Significantly, the increase in the savings rate was not just a short-term spike – it persisted for almost five years before starting to tail off. In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, we can expect a similarly prolonged precautionary Building trust savings increase, across large segments of the Tried and trusted brands, and companies community. Pervasive uncertainty regarding how (particularly New Zealand-owned) with a strong long the global pandemic will last, the extent of social licence and values-driven narrative community spread, the effectiveness of contact will have a competitive advantage. For those tracing and the quest for a vaccine will drive looking to build trust, New Zealand consumers households to save more. are receptive to progressive, empathetic, community-focused businesses right now, while agility is highly valued too. Consumers are subjecting organisations to an unprecedented level of scrutiny about their ethical behaviour. Now is the time when brand reputations will be transformed – some for the better, but many for the worse. Then, as we make progress in the COVID-19 environment, and national borders are re-opened, visibility of the supply chain will become increasingly important. Internationally-owned corporations, and those registered in offshore tax havens, will face lower levels of trust, and we can expect that Government support will not be forthcoming for these reasons. 07 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Digital transformation Online shopping has boomed during the crisis, testing the reliability of digital platforms and their supply chains. Companies that don’t have a compelling online shopping experience, or that lag behind competitors in their online proposition, have suffered. “ Retail businesses that rely on physical channels, and fail to invest in a broader omni-channel approach, do so at their peril. The challenge here is the ability of retailers to be agile, i.e. physical supply chains, including warehouse locations and layouts, are significant investments and typically set-up for the longer term. Retail businesses that rely on Consumer trends physical channels, Overnight, demand profiles have changed and fail to invest in dramatically, e.g. from foodservice to retail, from shop yourself to shop online. The winners will a broader be those businesses that respond well to these omni-channel challenges, doing so efficiently and maintaining appropriate service levels with their customers. approach, do so at Globally, Amazon shares had recovered by early their peril. April and have out-performed the S&P 500 Index by 66% year to date6. In Australia, Myer’s online sales were up 800% over the Easter weekend, with beauty purchases skyrocketing 7000% for their one day-only sale on Easter Saturday.7 Closer to home, the Warehouse Group recently reported that year-to-date online sales were up nearly 55%, making up 11.8% of its total sales compared with 7.8% a year ago.8 6 Source: Bloomberg – as at 16 August 2020. 6 Myer Chief Customer Officer, Geoff Ikin – https://insideretail.com.au/news/easter-weekend-drives-strong-online-sales-at-myer-202004 6 9 July 2020 – https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122080002/retail-therapy-boosts-the-warehouse-sales-after-lockdown August 2020 | 08
A virtual future Reliable infrastructure While online shopping in New Zealand has seen Businesses will have to adapt to the increased reasonable growth in recent years, the lockdown demand for online goods and services to remain has encouraged consumers to embrace the competitive, while warehousing, fulfilment and digital retail experience like never before. logistics operators will have to expand their This acceleration of online shopping will compel capabilities in order to improve reliability and retailers to reassess their long-term store/real productivity (anecdotal evidence suggests that estate requirements, resulting in further store many consumers experienced frustration and closures, which may prove unpopular with local delay in the fulfillment of their online orders communities (as seen previously with the demise over the lockdown period). Improved digital of retail bank branches). infrastructure, industry ‘last mile’ collaboration, advanced data and analytics, sourcing and As consumers become increasingly concerned supply chain efficiencies are essential. about the state of their local high street, landlords may also be forced to realise that the alternative use value for some of their Accelerated digitalisation and property may be limited. Changes in consumer data reliance spending patterns, including the continued As the economy recovers, increased digitisation shift towards online, will also have an impact on levels will place higher expectations on footfall, with the super-regional shopping malls New Zealand’s digital infrastructure and expected to continue to draw consumers at cybersecurity capabilities. Businesses that can the expense of the local high street and smaller rapidly adapt to e-commerce and e-services shopping centres. demand will be in an enviable position. These changes in consumer shopping International online platforms with their patterns will also cause larger, multi-store and substantial resources and broad product international retailers to reassess their store by range will inevitably seek to take advantage of store/“four wall” profitability with further store the increasing shift online and actively target closures (or market exit) inevitable. As COVID-19 New Zealand consumers. This will put increasing continues to take its toll on certain sectors, pressure on local retailers who must enhance particularly hospitality and tourism, competition their multichannel proposition and invest in for the remaining domestic spend will increase their digital capabilities, including marketing, with a variety of B2B businesses already using infrastructure and fulfillment, in order to compete digital marketing and an enhanced online effectively and build a loyal customer base. proposition to engage with and sell directly to consumers. 09 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
The future is here At PwC, we believe that with the right tools and talent, companies can meet market disruption head-on and ‘reinvent the future’ for their own particular organisation. For companies that cater to the end consumer, the future is arriving more quickly than anyone imagined just a few short months ago, accelerating digital trends that had already been transforming consumer behaviour. Businesses need to understand how this new world affects all their touch points with the customer if they are to actively reinvent their own future and not be at the mercy of external events. “ The pandemic has accelerated the pace of behavioural changes around the world — how people work, eat, communicate, play and learn. And this extends to consumption patterns, too, in every category, including groceries, entertainment, healthcare and even data. It’s important for B2C companies of all kinds to Businesses need to understand the degree to which the current understand how customer journey has already changed, and just how different it might still become. this new world affects all their touch points with the customer if they are to actively reinvent their own future and not be at the mercy of external events. August 2020 | 10
PwC Global Consumer Insights Survey 2020 PwC’s global research across 4. Acceleration of online adoption: Not only consumers (who were surveyed has the impact of the pandemic reinforced both before and after the COVID-19 the growing trend for online shopping, it’s outbreak) provides the following encouraged experimentation, coaxing consumers to explore different ways to access key insights: products and services and accelerating certain behaviours that have long been brewing. International insights Previously, online grocery shopping was well 1. Spending outlook shifts as job losses behind online shopping for non-food items. mount: Following the outbreak of COVID-19, But what was unthinkable to many just a few 40% of respondents reported a decrease in months ago – buying fresh produce online, for income as a result of job loss or redundancy. example – has become commonplace. In addition, the percentage of those who said they were going to spend less in the next few months almost doubled, and the number who Most consumers who’ve increased said they were going to spend more dropped online shopping for groceries will by more than 10 percentage points. continue current behaviour Online grocery shopping activity 2. Consumers are spending less on before COVID-19 non-food categories: Since the outbreak, people are spending the most on groceries, in-home entertainment and DIY projects. For food items, they’re making fewer shopping trips – 45% say they are shopping less often 9% shopped for groceries exclusively online Online grocery shopping activity for groceries – but filling up bigger baskets. after the COVID-19 outbreak 63% 86% For most non-food items, consumers are buying online and, with the exception of entertainment, media and DIY, spending significantly less. are buying more are likely to continue groceries online/ to shop online/by 3. Contact fear: For consumers to feel by phone than phone when social confident enough to return to a semblance before social distancing measures of normal physical interaction with retailers, distancing are removed hotels and other consumer-facing businesses, the first thing they’ll need is solid assurance that places of business have a plan to make 5. Consumers focused on healthy living: their customer experience as safe as possible. Prior to the pandemic, almost half of However, no matter how safe consumer-facing respondents indicated they were making companies make their products, supply chains dietary changes (taking supplements, and stores, the reality is that many of us have implementing plant-based food options or gotten used to doing more at home – 36% of restricting certain food groups) in an effort respondents said their household spending to adopt a healthier lifestyle. More recently, had increased in the area of entertainment PwC has found a huge, renewed focus not and media, and 26% said their household only on diet, but on the holistic concept of spending had increased in the combined areas healthy living. However, customers don’t just of DIY, home improvement and gardening. want businesses to care about them – today they also expect companies to care about the planet. 11 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Implications and action items 1. Consumer spending: To adjust to recent 2. Safety concerns: To be responsive to changes in consumer behaviour and safety concerns and at-home interests, spending, companies should: businesses should: • understand what shoppers really value • have adequate stocks and provide their to determine the minimum viable basket employees (if necessary, e.g. following — the ‘anchor’ products or services Government advice or a change in Alert that must be available at all times and Level) appropriate personal protective prioritised through the supply chain; equipment; • ensure that the supply chain has been • communicate frequently with consumers recalibrated to maintain delivery of about safety policies, including which products for this core basket; trusted sources they are relying on for guidance; and • make an effort to understand how customers’ general priorities are • improve employees’ digital fitness so they changing to put more weight on price can meet consumers where they are for and value, and use this opportunity to now: online. re-evaluate their relationship with their customers; and • consider new pricing strategies and loyalty programmes in the digital ecosystem to drive and maintain customer engagement. “ There are also growing signs of a two- speed retail environment as some categories experience record sales, while other retailers appear increasingly pessimistic about their prospects going forward. Focusing on customer needs with a differentiated retail proposition and genuine omni-channel offer will be crucial in the coming months. August 2020 | 12
3. Multi-channel convergence: The pandemic has clearly highlighted the There’s no escaping the fact that benefits of mobile shopping – its ease, the retail sector is experiencing portability and immediacy. However, the unprecedented challenges and will overarching trend will be towards a multi- continue to do so for some time. There channel experience, with consumer-facing are also growing signs of a two-speed companies needing to seamlessly integrate retail environment as some categories their offline and online experiences. As tools experience record sales, while other such as digital sizing in fashion, virtual retailers appear increasingly pessimistic shoppers, consumer collaboration platforms about their prospects going forward. and augmented reality are introduced and Focusing on customer needs with a begin to converge, companies should: differentiated retail proposition and • invest in data and customer relationship genuine omni-channel offer will be crucial management technology to drive in the coming months. frictionless commerce and engagement, including more sophisticated customer These considerations and the risks to segmentation and loyalty programs; and the financial viability of New Zealand’s retailers have become all the more • reskill service staff so they can stark as the country now considers build content-rich experiences and the economic implications of more better understand the end-to-end restrictive lockdown levels. It will be customer journey. important for retailers to stay ahead of changes in consumer trends and shifts 4. Healthy living: In order to improve customer in the market, considering the customer wellbeing and foster a culture of innovation, experience at all stages (and across all companies can: channels) of the purchasing journey. For • invest in the talent, research most, this will require a reappraisal of capabilities and digital tools to address their existing and future physical footprint, consumer concerns; digital strategy, supply chain, distribution and fulfillment capabilities. • develop new, sustainable products and services; • establish greater inclusivity and transparency across supply chains; • find new supply chain partners that suit shifting consumer demands; • increase R&D investments into the future of food and nutrition; and • train staff to provide a consistent service in line with their brand/offer. 13 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Contact us PwC has advised many of New Zealand’s largest listed and privately-owned retailers across a wide variety of projects and roles, including assurance, tax, capital solutions, transactions services, M&A, restructuring, real estate, supply chain and digital consulting services. We have a comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving retail environment (offline and online) and are uniquely placed to combine strategy with technical, industry and execution expertise. We pride ourselves on a focused partnership approach to our work in the sector, based on principles of trust, independence and challenging insight, using specialist teams tailored to specific client needs. Jeff Blue Craig Armitage Director Partner +64 21 892 758 +64 21 616 232 jeff.r.blue@pwc.com craig.armitage@pwc.com Keren Blakey Peter Chambers Partner Partner +64 21 628 226 +64 21 404 015 keren.j.blakey@pwc.com peter.x.chambers@pwc.com Greg Doone John Schellekens Partner Partner +64 21 863 396 +64 27 489 9541 greg.x.doone@pwc.com john.b.schellekens@pwc.com August 2020 | 14
This content is accurate as at 18 August 2020. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with our professional advisors. If you wish to understand the potential implications of COVID-19 for your business, please get in touch. To find an advisor and to see more of our general COVID-19 guidance for businesses, please visit www.pwc.co.nz/covid-19 © 2020 PricewaterhouseCoopers New Zealand. All rights reserved. ‘PwC’ and ‘PricewaterhouseCoopers’ refer to the New Zealand member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
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