REBUILD NEW ZEALAND: RETAIL - AUGUST 2020 - PWC

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REBUILD NEW ZEALAND: RETAIL - AUGUST 2020 - PWC
Rebuild
New Zealand:
retail

               August 2020
Retail in New Zealand:
                          an overview
                                          New Zealand’s retail sector has a turnover of

                                          $57.8bn per annum                1

                                          It comprises               and employs

                                          c.27,000
                                          businesses
                                                                     c.220,000
                                                                     New Zealanders

                                          Retailers are one of the largest constituents
                                          of commercial tenants, providing a significant
                                          source of income to private landlords, real estate
                                          syndicates and some of New Zealand’s largest
                                          pension funds.

                                                                “
                                         The COVID-19 restrictions will mean that
                                       the survival of many retail businesses is on a
                                       knife-edge. The wage subsidy has effectively
                                         kept many people employed in retail, and
                                        has helped support consumer spending, but
                                       it is likely that we will see reduced consumer
                                       spending and redundancies across the sector
                                                  when that subsidy runs out.

                                                 Greg Harford – Chief Executive – Retail NZ2

                          1
                              Source: Stats NZ
                          2
                              5 August 2020.

01 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
New Zealand must focus
on local retailers as the
foundation of a sector
recovery strategy
COVID-19 is the most significant challenge in a generation for
consumer-facing businesses. In recent months, retailers have
worked tirelessly to feed the country, look after their staff and
customers and remain solvent. They must now turn to the future
and look for ways to embed resilience, capitalise on accelerating
consumer trends and integrate different business models.

Retail – a barometer on the wider economy
Individual retailers’ experiences during the                     As a sector, retail has benefited both directly
COVID-19 restrictions and prospects going                        and indirectly from the Government’s Wage
forward continue to vary substantially.                          Subsidy Scheme. However, with the current
When the country entered Alert Level 4 in                        scheme due to end on 1 September (and the
late March, supermarket sales were up and                        recently announced extension expiring on
panic-buying left many grocery shelves                           14 September) and our borders remaining
empty. Those with online capabilities and                        closed, the economic outlook is uncertain.
whose products were deemed ‘essential’ also                      We take a look at the numbers that paint a
fared well. For other retailers, including those                 picture of the retail trading environment since
with a limited online proposition or reliant on                  the arrival of COVID-19 and consider what
international visitors, it remains a different                   recent developments in consumer sentiment
story with growing signs of a ‘two-speed’ retail                 may tell us about what lies ahead for the
environment. These considerations and the                        retail sector.
risks to the financial viability of New Zealand’s
retailers have become all the more stark as the
country and Auckland (as the largest contributor
to GDP), in particular, are forced back into more
restrictive levels of lockdown.

3
    Similar scenes were also witnessed when the Auckland region entered Alert Level 3 on 12 August 2020.

                                                                                                                   August 2020 | 02
Volatile consumer confidence
                                Uncertainty around the economic impact of                                                             – roughly where it troughed in 2008 following
                                COVID-19, changes in lockdown restrictions and                                                        the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Consumer
                                what that means for employment is affecting                                                           confidence rebounded 8 and 12 points in
                                confidence in the economy and personal                                                                May and June respectively, but was basically
                                finances. Based on the ANZ-Roy Morgan                                                                 unchanged in July, remaining well below long-
                                Consumer Confidence Survey, consumer                                                                  term historical averages (having recovered about
                                confidence fell 21 points in April to 84.8                                                            half its fall, but still sitting at around 2009 levels).

                                House price outcomes and expectations
                                                   20.0%                                                                                                                                                     7.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                             6.0%
                                                   15.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                             5.0%
                                                   10.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                             4.0%
                                 Annual % change

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Annual % change
                                                    5.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                             3.0%

                                                          -
                                                                                                                                                                                                             2.0%

                                                    (5.0%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.0%

                                                   (10.0%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                             -

                                                   (15.0%)                                                                                                                                                   (1.0%)
                                                         Jan 08            Jan 10                  Jan 12                  Jan 14                  Jan 16                     Jan 18            Jan 20

                                                                                             House price inflation (LHS)            Consumer house price expectations (RHS)

                                ANZ Consumer Confidence "Good time to buy a major household item" and retail sales
                                                    80                                                                                                                                                   10.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                         8.0%
                                                    60
                                                                                                                                                                                                         6.0%

                                                    40                                                                                                                                                   4.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Annual % change
                                                                                                                                                                                                         2.0%
                                                    20
                                Net %

                                                                                                                                                                                                         -

                                                     -
                                                                                                                                                                                                         (2.0%)

                                                   (20)                                                                                                                                                  (4.0%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                         (6.0%)
                                                   (40)
                                                                                                                                                                                                         (8.0%)

                                                   (60)                                                                                                                                                  (10.0%)
                                                     Jun 04       Jun 06            Jun 08               Jun 10            Jun 12              Jun 14             Jun 16               Jun 18      Jun 20

                                                                                               Good time to buy major household item (LHS)              Retail sales (RHS)

                                Source: ANZ Research, Roy Morgan – 31 July 2020.

                 Retail sector data 18082020.xlsx
                 PwC                                                                                                                                                         Sheet1

03 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Consumer Confidence was steady in July. It
                                                    “
         has made back around half its fall, but seems
          to have run out of puff for now...The global
          economy is in strife, and our doors are shut
          to international tourists and students. Our
           national income is now lower, and while
             it won’t hit people evenly, it will hurt.

                               ANZ Research, Roy Morgan – 31 July 2020

Trends in household spending
While expenditure on major household items                       The volatility in consumer spending habits
initially recovered strongly after we moved out                  can be seen in the Stats NZ electronic card
of Alert Level 4 in June, the net proportion of                  transactions series data that includes all debit,
households who think it’s a good time to buy a                   credit, and charge card transactions with
major household item gave up 5 points in July,                   New Zealand-based merchants. Through our
falling to 0% (a recessionary level), suggesting                 analysis and data visualisation dashboards (and
the unexpected post-lockdown recovery in retail                  commented elsewhere), it is readily apparent
spending may fade quite rapidly. The concern                     that year on year consumer spend on durables4
is that consumer sentiment and spending                          now exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels, e.g. durables
levels deteriorate as households spend their                     spending for July 2020 was up $259 million
involuntary lockdown savings (and for some,                      or 20% (compared to July 2019). Interestingly,
their international holiday budgets), the novelty                the recovery in hospitality5 continues with
of ‘supporting local’ fades, Government                          spending on food and beverage services for
support/subsidies decline, a further period                      the month of July increasing $92 million (+11%)
of lockdown restrictions is required and                         year on year, while accommodation services
unemployment increases.                                          continue to suffer due to the border restrictions
                                                                 with spending down $30 million (-16%) for the
New Zealand has delivered a strong health                        same period. While some of the year on year
response that has been globally recognised.                      figures are encouraging, year to date spending
Unfortunately, our elimination strategy may                      highlights the economic impact of lockdown,
also prove to be our Achilles’ heel as many                      e.g. year to date electronic spending in the
countries continue to struggle with the virus                    hospitality and apparel sectors is down -22.3%
and the re-opening of our international                          and -18.7%, respectively.
borders, e.g. the ‘Australasian bubble’, appears
increasingly unlikely. Despite the increase                      From a retail sector perspective, the concern
in domestic tourism during the July school                       remains that more challenges lie ahead as
holidays, the outlook for tourism remains                        consumer confidence stalls, unemployment
challenging. Jobs lost in the tourism sector                     increases, household incomes decline, contact
won’t be easily replaced, with the impact falling                fear becomes more widespread (in the event of
particularly heavily outside the major cities in                 further evidence of community transfer) and the
towns such as Queenstown and Rotorua.                            true impact of COVID-19 works its way through
                                                                 the New Zealand economy.

4
  Furniture, electrical, and hardware, recreational goods, department stores,                 5
                                                                                                Accommodation, food
pharmaceutical, cosmetic, toiletry goods and other store-based retailing.                     and beverage services.

                                                                                                                       August 2020 | 04
Durables - Change in spending last 12 months
                                 Increase           Decrease                     Total                Other

                                                                                                                                                            0.48bn

                                                                                                                                                                      2.16bn
                                    2.0bn

                                                                                                                                       0.23bn

                                                                                                                                                 1.68bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.16bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1.60bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1.55bn
                                                                                                                     0.15bn

                                                                                                                              1.44bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1.08bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.44bn
                                                                                                                                                                                           1.43bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.36bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.35bn
                                    1.5bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -0.05bn
                                                                      0.02bn

                                                                                  1.30bn

                                                                                                            1.29bn
                                                     1.29bn

                                                                                                                                                                                -0.73bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                     -0.07bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -0.01bn
                                                                                                  -0.01bn
                            Value

                                    1.0bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.36bn
                                    0.5bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -0.99bn
                                    0.0bn
                                                     ly                s          st         s       er           s      er           s
                                                                                                                                             be
                                                                                                                                                r           s
                                                                                                                                                                  be
                                                                                                                                                                     r           s       ry           s          ry           s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     rch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   s       ril           s       y      s       ne           s        ly
                                                  Ju               ble         gu        ble       mb         ble     tob         ble                   ble                  ble      ua          ble         ua          ble                  ble       Ap          ble       Ma rable      Ju          ble       Ju
                           20bn              19               ra           Au              ra              ra       Oc         ra          em        ra         em        ra       an          ra          br          ra         Ma        ra                    ra        20                        ra        20
                                        20                Du          19              Du       pte      Du                  Du          ov        Du          ec       Du        0J         Du          Fe          Du         20        Du        20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20       Du        20        Du     20       Du        20
                                                                                           Se                   19                 9N                    9D                   02                    20                     20                                                          20
                                                                   20                         9              20                  1                     1                    2                     0
                                                                                       2   01                                20                    20                                           2

                            Hospitality - Change in spending last 12 months
                                Increase            Decrease                     Total                Other
                                                                                                                                       0.05bn

                                                                                                                                                            0.08bn

                                                                                                                                                                      1.25bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.18bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1.11bn
                                                                                                                     0.07bn

                                                                                                                              1.11bn

                                    1.2bn
                                                                                                                                                                                          1.21bn
                                                                                                                                                                                -0.03bn
                                                                      0.02bn

                                                                                  1.07bn
                                                     1.05bn

                                                                                                            1.05bn

                                                                                                                                                 1.16bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.16bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                     -0.06bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.31bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.93bn
                                                                                                  -0.03bn

                                    1.0bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.82bn

                                    0.8bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -0.33bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.56bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.62bn
                            Value

                                    0.6bn

                                    0.4bn

                                    0.2bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -0.77bn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.06bn

                                    0.0bn
                                                     ly      lity        st       lity
                                                                                              r      ity        r
                                                                                                                        lity
                                                                                                                                     r           ty        r           ty       ry           ty          ry           ty                    ty          il           ty        y       lity                lity        ly
                                                  Ju                  gu                   be    tal         be                   be         ali        be         ali       ua          ali          ua          ali         rch       ali          pr          ali        Ma                 Ju
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ne                Ju
                          20bn                           ita       Au         ita       tem ospi          cto       ita         em        pit         em        pit       an          pit          br          pit         Ma        pit          0A          pit                  ita                 ita
                                            19         sp                   sp                                    sp         ov        os           ec       os                    os           Fe          os                    os           02          os            20      sp         20       sp          20
                                        20           Ho       0 19       Ho         S ep     H       1 9O      Ho          N        H             D       H           2 0J       H          0             H           0 20      H            2         H              20      Ho         20        Ho         20
                                                           2                     9               2 0                  1 9                    1 9                  2 0                    02                        2
                                                                               1                                    0                      0                                           2
                                                                            20                                    2                     2

                          Source: Stats NZ, PwC New Zealand

                          In terms of what to look out for, our dashboard highlights a strong correlation between:
                          1. Consumer expectations of economic                                                                                                                            2. Consumer attitudes towards buying a major
                             conditions in the next 12 months (Q3. ANZ                                                                                                                       household item (Q5. ANZ Research, Roy
                             Research, Roy Morgan Survey) and total                                                                                                                          Morgan Survey) and electronic spending on
                             electronic spending (as measured monthly by                                                                                                                     durables (as measured monthly by Stats NZ).
                             Stats NZ); and

05 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Consumer Economic Expectations
   Actual electronic spending   Household sentiment - next 12 months

                                                                                                                   30
8bn

6bn                                                                                                                20

4bn
                                                                                                                   10
2bn

0bn                                                                                                                0
          ly st er er er er ry ry          h ril  y  e    ly st er er er er ry ry          h ril  y  e  ly
        Ju gu mb tob mb mb ua rua arc Ap Ma Jun Ju gu mb tob mb mb ua rua arc Ap Ma Jun Ju
   0 18 8 Au pte Oc ove ece Jan F eb 9 M 019 019 19 019 9 Au pte Oc ove ece Jan F eb 0 M 020 020 20 020
  2 01 Se 18 N D 19 9                 1 2   2 20 2 01 Se 19 N D 20 0                  2 2   2 20 2
     2 18 20 18 18 20 01           20                2 19 20 19 19 20 02           20
                20 20       2                                   20 20       2
       20                                              20

  Attitude Towards Major Household Spend
   Actual spending on household durables    Sentiment toward major household item purchases

2.5bn
                                                                                                                   50
2.0bn

1.5bn
                                                                                                                   0
1.0bn

0.5bn
                                                                                                                   -50
0.0bn
                t    r  r   r    r               l                 t    r  r   r    r               l
          uly us be be be be ary ary rch pri ay une uly us be be be be ary ary rch pri ay une uly
     1 8 J Aug tem cto vem cem anu ebru Ma 19 A 19 M 9 J 19 J Aug tem cto vem cem anu ebru Ma 20 A 20 M 0 J 20 J
                    O          J                    1                  O
   20 018 Se 18 No De 19 9 F 01 20 20 20 20 019 Se 19 No De 20 0 F 02 20 20 202 20
              p                        9                         p                J       0
     2 18 20 18 18 20 01            2                    2 19 20 19 19 20 02           2
                  20 20       2                                      20 20       2
       20                                                 20

Source: ANZ Research – Roy Morgan, Stats NZ and PwC New Zealand

The ANZ Research-Roy Morgan Consumer                            early insights in relation to the longer-term
Confidence Survey is likely to be closely watched               consequences of declining Government support,
by industry participants in coming months,                      our borders remaining closed, community
e.g. the correlation between July’s decline in                  transfer concerns, growing unemployment and
attitudes towards major household spend and                     declining household incomes.
electronic spending on durables, providing

                                                                                                                         August 2020 | 06
Consumer behaviour

                                                                                                “
                          A new generation of cautious
                          consumers
                          Household debt, financial hardship and
                          ‘contact fear’ will dictate consumer behaviour
                          and test trust during the recovery phase.
                          During lockdown, consumers have learnt                          ...consumers
                          new shopping habits and will be more
                          cautious, digitally aware and likely to change
                                                                                       have learnt new
                          their spending patterns to reflect their new                  shopping habits
                          economic reality.                                            and will be more
                                                                                      cautious, digitally
                          Pivoting back to savings                                     aware and likely
                          When faced with economic uncertainty,
                          households tend to increase savings. This, in
                                                                                        to change their
                          turn, slows the recovery rate for businesses                spending patterns
                          in the short-to-medium term. The GFC saw
                          savings increased by 10% of disposable
                                                                                     to reflect their new
                          income and consumption drastically decreased.                economic reality.
                          Significantly, the increase in the savings rate
                          was not just a short-term spike – it persisted
                          for almost five years before starting to tail off.
                          In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, we can
                          expect a similarly prolonged precautionary           Building trust
                          savings increase, across large segments of the       Tried and trusted brands, and companies
                          community. Pervasive uncertainty regarding how       (particularly New Zealand-owned) with a strong
                          long the global pandemic will last, the extent of    social licence and values-driven narrative
                          community spread, the effectiveness of contact       will have a competitive advantage. For those
                          tracing and the quest for a vaccine will drive       looking to build trust, New Zealand consumers
                          households to save more.                             are receptive to progressive, empathetic,
                                                                               community-focused businesses right now, while
                                                                               agility is highly valued too.

                                                                               Consumers are subjecting organisations to
                                                                               an unprecedented level of scrutiny about their
                                                                               ethical behaviour. Now is the time when brand
                                                                               reputations will be transformed – some for the
                                                                               better, but many for the worse. Then, as we
                                                                               make progress in the COVID-19 environment,
                                                                               and national borders are re-opened, visibility
                                                                               of the supply chain will become increasingly
                                                                               important. Internationally-owned corporations,
                                                                               and those registered in offshore tax havens, will
                                                                               face lower levels of trust, and we can expect that
                                                                               Government support will not be forthcoming for
                                                                               these reasons.

07 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Digital transformation
Online shopping has boomed during the crisis, testing the reliability
of digital platforms and their supply chains. Companies that don’t
have a compelling online shopping experience, or that lag behind
competitors in their online proposition, have suffered.

                                                                                              “
Retail businesses that rely on physical channels,
and fail to invest in a broader omni-channel
approach, do so at their peril. The challenge
here is the ability of retailers to be agile,
i.e. physical supply chains, including warehouse
locations and layouts, are significant investments
and typically set-up for the longer term.                                         Retail businesses
                                                                                    that rely on
Consumer trends                                                                  physical channels,
Overnight, demand profiles have changed                                          and fail to invest in
dramatically, e.g. from foodservice to retail, from
shop yourself to shop online. The winners will
                                                                                      a broader
be those businesses that respond well to these                                     omni-channel
challenges, doing so efficiently and maintaining
appropriate service levels with their customers.
                                                                                 approach, do so at
Globally, Amazon shares had recovered by early                                       their peril.
April and have out-performed the S&P 500 Index
by 66% year to date6. In Australia, Myer’s online
sales were up 800% over the Easter weekend,
with beauty purchases skyrocketing 7000%
for their one day-only sale on Easter Saturday.7
Closer to home, the Warehouse Group recently
reported that year-to-date online sales were up
nearly 55%, making up 11.8% of its total sales
compared with 7.8% a year ago.8

6
    Source: Bloomberg – as at 16 August 2020.
6
    Myer Chief Customer Officer, Geoff Ikin – https://insideretail.com.au/news/easter-weekend-drives-strong-online-sales-at-myer-202004
6
    9 July 2020 – https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122080002/retail-therapy-boosts-the-warehouse-sales-after-lockdown

                                                                                                                                          August 2020 | 08
A virtual future                                     Reliable infrastructure
                          While online shopping in New Zealand has seen        Businesses will have to adapt to the increased
                          reasonable growth in recent years, the lockdown      demand for online goods and services to remain
                          has encouraged consumers to embrace the              competitive, while warehousing, fulfilment and
                          digital retail experience like never before.         logistics operators will have to expand their
                          This acceleration of online shopping will compel     capabilities in order to improve reliability and
                          retailers to reassess their long-term store/real     productivity (anecdotal evidence suggests that
                          estate requirements, resulting in further store      many consumers experienced frustration and
                          closures, which may prove unpopular with local       delay in the fulfillment of their online orders
                          communities (as seen previously with the demise      over the lockdown period). Improved digital
                          of retail bank branches).                            infrastructure, industry ‘last mile’ collaboration,
                                                                               advanced data and analytics, sourcing and
                          As consumers become increasingly concerned           supply chain efficiencies are essential.
                          about the state of their local high street,
                          landlords may also be forced to realise that
                          the alternative use value for some of their          Accelerated digitalisation and
                          property may be limited. Changes in consumer         data reliance
                          spending patterns, including the continued
                                                                               As the economy recovers, increased digitisation
                          shift towards online, will also have an impact on
                                                                               levels will place higher expectations on
                          footfall, with the super-regional shopping malls
                                                                               New Zealand’s digital infrastructure and
                          expected to continue to draw consumers at
                                                                               cybersecurity capabilities. Businesses that can
                          the expense of the local high street and smaller
                                                                               rapidly adapt to e-commerce and e-services
                          shopping centres.
                                                                               demand will be in an enviable position.
                          These changes in consumer shopping
                                                                               International online platforms with their
                          patterns will also cause larger, multi-store and
                                                                               substantial resources and broad product
                          international retailers to reassess their store by
                                                                               range will inevitably seek to take advantage of
                          store/“four wall” profitability with further store
                                                                               the increasing shift online and actively target
                          closures (or market exit) inevitable. As COVID-19
                                                                               New Zealand consumers. This will put increasing
                          continues to take its toll on certain sectors,
                                                                               pressure on local retailers who must enhance
                          particularly hospitality and tourism, competition
                                                                               their multichannel proposition and invest in
                          for the remaining domestic spend will increase
                                                                               their digital capabilities, including marketing,
                          with a variety of B2B businesses already using
                                                                               infrastructure and fulfillment, in order to compete
                          digital marketing and an enhanced online
                                                                               effectively and build a loyal customer base.
                          proposition to engage with and sell directly
                          to consumers.

09 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
The future is here
At PwC, we believe that with the right tools and talent, companies
can meet market disruption head-on and ‘reinvent the future’
for their own particular organisation. For companies that cater
to the end consumer, the future is arriving more quickly than
anyone imagined just a few short months ago, accelerating digital
trends that had already been transforming consumer behaviour.
Businesses need to understand how this new world affects all their
touch points with the customer if they are to actively reinvent their
own future and not be at the mercy of external events.

                                                        “
The pandemic has accelerated the pace of
behavioural changes around the world —
how people work, eat, communicate, play and
learn. And this extends to consumption patterns,
too, in every category, including groceries,
entertainment, healthcare and even data. It’s
important for B2C companies of all kinds to
                                                   Businesses need to
understand the degree to which the current           understand how
customer journey has already changed, and just
how different it might still become.
                                                      this new world
                                                      affects all their
                                                    touch points with
                                                      the customer if
                                                   they are to actively
                                                   reinvent their own
                                                    future and not be
                                                      at the mercy of
                                                     external events.

                                                                          August 2020 | 10
PwC Global Consumer
                          Insights Survey 2020
                          PwC’s global research across                         4. Acceleration of online adoption: Not only
                          consumers (who were surveyed                            has the impact of the pandemic reinforced
                          both before and after the COVID-19                      the growing trend for online shopping, it’s
                          outbreak) provides the following                        encouraged experimentation, coaxing
                                                                                  consumers to explore different ways to access
                          key insights:
                                                                                  products and services and accelerating certain
                                                                                  behaviours that have long been brewing.
                          International insights
                                                                                  Previously, online grocery shopping was well
                          1. Spending outlook shifts as job losses                behind online shopping for non-food items.
                             mount: Following the outbreak of COVID-19,           But what was unthinkable to many just a few
                             40% of respondents reported a decrease in            months ago – buying fresh produce online, for
                             income as a result of job loss or redundancy.        example – has become commonplace.
                             In addition, the percentage of those who said
                             they were going to spend less in the next few
                             months almost doubled, and the number who            Most consumers who’ve increased
                             said they were going to spend more dropped           online shopping for groceries will
                             by more than 10 percentage points.                   continue current behaviour
                                                                                  Online grocery shopping activity
                          2. Consumers are spending less on
                                                                                  before COVID-19
                             non-food categories: Since the outbreak,
                             people are spending the most on groceries,
                             in-home entertainment and DIY projects.
                             For food items, they’re making fewer shopping
                             trips – 45% say they are shopping less often
                                                                                  9%              shopped for groceries
                                                                                                  exclusively online
                                                                                  Online grocery shopping activity
                             for groceries – but filling up bigger baskets.       after the COVID-19 outbreak

                                                                                  63% 86%
                             For most non-food items, consumers are
                             buying online and, with the exception of
                             entertainment, media and DIY, spending
                             significantly less.                                  are buying more       are likely to continue
                                                                                  groceries online/     to shop online/by
                          3. Contact fear: For consumers to feel
                                                                                  by phone than         phone when social
                             confident enough to return to a semblance
                                                                                  before social         distancing measures
                             of normal physical interaction with retailers,
                                                                                  distancing            are removed
                             hotels and other consumer-facing businesses,
                             the first thing they’ll need is solid assurance
                             that places of business have a plan to make       5. Consumers focused on healthy living:
                             their customer experience as safe as possible.       Prior to the pandemic, almost half of
                             However, no matter how safe consumer-facing          respondents indicated they were making
                             companies make their products, supply chains         dietary changes (taking supplements,
                             and stores, the reality is that many of us have      implementing plant-based food options or
                             gotten used to doing more at home – 36% of           restricting certain food groups) in an effort
                             respondents said their household spending            to adopt a healthier lifestyle. More recently,
                             had increased in the area of entertainment           PwC has found a huge, renewed focus not
                             and media, and 26% said their household              only on diet, but on the holistic concept of
                             spending had increased in the combined areas         healthy living. However, customers don’t just
                             of DIY, home improvement and gardening.              want businesses to care about them – today
                                                                                  they also expect companies to care about
                                                                                  the planet.

11 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Implications and
action items
1. Consumer spending: To adjust to recent       2. Safety concerns: To be responsive to
   changes in consumer behaviour and               safety concerns and at-home interests,
   spending, companies should:                     businesses should:
  • understand what shoppers really value         • have adequate stocks and provide their
    to determine the minimum viable basket          employees (if necessary, e.g. following
    — the ‘anchor’ products or services             Government advice or a change in Alert
    that must be available at all times and         Level) appropriate personal protective
    prioritised through the supply chain;           equipment;
  • ensure that the supply chain has been         • communicate frequently with consumers
    recalibrated to maintain delivery of            about safety policies, including which
    products for this core basket;                  trusted sources they are relying on for
                                                    guidance; and
  • make an effort to understand how
    customers’ general priorities are             • improve employees’ digital fitness so they
    changing to put more weight on price            can meet consumers where they are for
    and value, and use this opportunity to          now: online.
    re-evaluate their relationship with their
    customers; and
  • consider new pricing strategies and
    loyalty programmes in the digital
    ecosystem to drive and maintain
    customer engagement.

                                                “
           There are also growing signs of a two-
        speed retail environment as some categories
        experience record sales, while other retailers
         appear increasingly pessimistic about their
           prospects going forward. Focusing on
         customer needs with a differentiated retail
        proposition and genuine omni-channel offer
           will be crucial in the coming months.

                                                                                                 August 2020 | 12
3. Multi-channel convergence:
                             The pandemic has clearly highlighted the           There’s no escaping the fact that
                             benefits of mobile shopping – its ease,            the retail sector is experiencing
                             portability and immediacy. However, the            unprecedented challenges and will
                             overarching trend will be towards a multi-         continue to do so for some time. There
                             channel experience, with consumer-facing           are also growing signs of a two-speed
                             companies needing to seamlessly integrate          retail environment as some categories
                             their offline and online experiences. As tools     experience record sales, while other
                             such as digital sizing in fashion, virtual         retailers appear increasingly pessimistic
                             shoppers, consumer collaboration platforms         about their prospects going forward.
                             and augmented reality are introduced and           Focusing on customer needs with a
                             begin to converge, companies should:               differentiated retail proposition and
                             • invest in data and customer relationship         genuine omni-channel offer will be crucial
                               management technology to drive                   in the coming months.
                               frictionless commerce and engagement,
                               including more sophisticated customer            These considerations and the risks to
                               segmentation and loyalty programs; and           the financial viability of New Zealand’s
                                                                                retailers have become all the more
                             • reskill service staff so they can                stark as the country now considers
                               build content-rich experiences and               the economic implications of more
                               better understand the end-to-end                 restrictive lockdown levels. It will be
                               customer journey.                                important for retailers to stay ahead of
                                                                                changes in consumer trends and shifts
                          4. Healthy living: In order to improve customer       in the market, considering the customer
                             wellbeing and foster a culture of innovation,      experience at all stages (and across all
                             companies can:                                     channels) of the purchasing journey. For
                             • invest in the talent, research                   most, this will require a reappraisal of
                               capabilities and digital tools to address        their existing and future physical footprint,
                               consumer concerns;                               digital strategy, supply chain, distribution
                                                                                and fulfillment capabilities.
                             • develop new, sustainable products
                               and services;
                             • establish greater inclusivity and
                               transparency across supply chains;
                             • find new supply chain partners that suit
                               shifting consumer demands;
                             • increase R&D investments into the future
                               of food and nutrition; and
                             • train staff to provide a consistent service in
                               line with their brand/offer.

13 | Rebuild New Zealand: retail
Contact us
PwC has advised many of New Zealand’s largest listed and privately-owned retailers across a wide
variety of projects and roles, including assurance, tax, capital solutions, transactions services, M&A,
restructuring, real estate, supply chain and digital consulting services.

We have a comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving retail environment (offline and
online) and are uniquely placed to combine strategy with technical, industry and execution expertise.
We pride ourselves on a focused partnership approach to our work in the sector, based on
principles of trust, independence and challenging insight, using specialist teams tailored to specific
client needs.

Jeff Blue                                             Craig Armitage
Director                                              Partner
+64 21 892 758                                        +64 21 616 232
jeff.r.blue@pwc.com                                   craig.armitage@pwc.com

Keren Blakey                                          Peter Chambers
Partner                                               Partner
+64 21 628 226                                        +64 21 404 015
keren.j.blakey@pwc.com                                peter.x.chambers@pwc.com

Greg Doone                                            John Schellekens
Partner                                               Partner
+64 21 863 396                                        +64 27 489 9541
greg.x.doone@pwc.com                                  john.b.schellekens@pwc.com

                                                                                                          August 2020 | 14
This content is accurate as at 18 August 2020. This content is for general information purposes only, and
should not be used as a substitute for consultation with our professional advisors. If you wish to understand the
potential implications of COVID-19 for your business, please get in touch. To find an advisor and to see more of
our general COVID-19 guidance for businesses, please visit www.pwc.co.nz/covid-19
© 2020 PricewaterhouseCoopers New Zealand. All rights reserved. ‘PwC’ and ‘PricewaterhouseCoopers’
refer to the New Zealand member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a
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