Ramaphosa's first 100 days - And what it tells us about the shape of the South African state June 6, 2018 - Brunswick Group
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Ramaphosa’s first 100 days And what it tells us about the shape of the South African state June 6, 2018
2 Rhamaphosa's first 100 days
The Shape of
Ramaphosa’s Presidency
Cyril Ramaphosa came to power in
South Africa 100 days ago facing a
huge challenge: restore the Graphing the key changes – and
credibility of the Presidency and put key remaining question marks
South Africa back on the growth ▪ Cronyism and looting are now off the
track after almost a decade of agenda
disastrous rule and entrenched
▪ Radical economic transformation is not
corruption by Jacob Zuma, whose
years in power came to be known ▪ State-led hostility against the private
as “state capture”. Even for someone sector is out
with as varied a skill-set as Mr
▪ But a mixed economy, not free-market
Ramaphosa’s - who has succeeded
approach, replaces it
as a trade union leader, politician
and businessman – the challenge to ▪ Economic policy and state‐owned
deliver what has been dubbed enterprises are no longer primarily
“Ramaphoria” is enormous, for he geared to rent seeking
needs to align this to society in a ▪ But what replaces this economic
way that has rarely been done. approach is less evident
His political geometry, employing a careful ▪ Political risk should recede but political
distribution of power in his cabinet and noise and complexity are here for the
benefiting from consultation with concentric medium term
kitchen cabinets, is both hazardous and
necessary. Mr Ramaphosa has moved with ▪ That means rule of law, including
both determination and deliberation to start property rights, remains embedded
rebuilding confidence in the Presidency and
government in what he calls the “New Dawn.” ▪ Nefarious policy making is out, but
Mr Ramaphosa’s conundrum of renewing a political and regulatory complexity
divided party after winning with slim majority
remains subject to court challenges to
and trying to win a clear mandate in the next
deal with policy certainty
election will show that his agenda is clear, but
how far he can go is less so.
© BRUNSWICK GROUP 2018
3 Rhamaphosa's first 100 days
An investment summit is planned for August 2018. To
prepare the ground, Mr Ramaphosa has appointed
three private-sector envoys, and one from the public
sector, to comb the globe for investment and to
indicate that South Africa is open for business and the
state friendly to local and foreign providers of capital.
Smaller private-public sector summits have been
convened on youth employment, and small and
medium-sized enterprise development.
Networks, [prime] ministers
and kitchen cabinets
Mr Ramaphosa is not operating with a single formal
cabinet but is drawing on concentric networks built up
over decades. His networks are from both trade unions
and business. When Mr Ramaphosa faces an issue or a
governance challenge, he activates these networks.
A Presidency of summits In addition, he has vested significant authority in a pair
or compacts of cabinet ministers whose roles appear akin to prime
ministers. These are Public Enterprises Minister Pravin
As much as his agenda, it is Gordhan and Mineral Resources Minister Gwede
Mantashe. From his perch at Public Enterprises, Mr
Mr Ramaphosa’s style that is different. Gordhan is a de facto anti-corruption czar. He is
He has varied facets to his political assembling a war-room at Public Enterprises to make
persona. One is an ability to negotiate major changes at state-owned enterprises.
across interests. It is a characteristic honed Mr Mantashe is leading Mr Ramaphosa’s efforts to
by his years as a trade union negotiator ensure that land becomes an asset and not a liability of
his presidency. Mr Mantashe is the de facto land affairs
and his role as chairperson of the
minister, and Mr Ramaphosa’s envoy on land along
Constitutional Assembly and of the with the ANC MP Mathole Motshekga, and MP Vincent
National Planning Commission. Smith, who will chair the constitutional review
committee that is the centre of debate on expropriation
It is thus unsurprising that convened summits already
without compensation. The Public Works Deputy
shape his presidency. He has drawn together disparate
Minister Jeremy Cronin is operating as intellectual to
interests to begin negotiating the outcome of
drive more clear and focused land redistribution policy
consultative approach to land, mines regulation,
and legislation without the need for a constitutional
jobs etc.
amendment on expropriation.
A smaller, second process ensured that the
negotiations for a new mining charter — as contained
in an amendment to the Minerals and Petroleum
Resources Development Act — were taken out of court
and onto negotiating tables. In this way a protracted
battle in mining was contained and brought back to
negotiation. Gwede Mantashe, now Mineral Resources
Minister, has failed to pass a new Mineral and
Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) in the
first quarter of 2018, but there is goodwill between state
and industry.
© BRUNSWICK GROUP 2018
4 Rhamaphosa's first 100 days
Cabinet reshuffle,
disabling networks
and SoE reforms
By reshuffling the cabinet forced Premier Mahumapele’s with the new board appointments
reshuffle and removing ten resignation, thus slowly of the SOEs.
consolidating his position in the
ministers implicated in state At the South African Revenue
ANC and dismantling patronage
capture, Mr Ramaphosa has Services (SARS) the commission of
networks in ANC provinces.
brought credibility and Inquiry headed by Supreme Court
Mr Ramaphosa has lived up to of Appeal Judge Robert Nugent,
authority to government. expectation on reforming state assisted by respected lawyer
He has steadily started disabling the owned enterprises that were Michael Katz, is expected to submit
crony networks that had become hollowed out with poor governance a final report by November. The
the effective purpose of and has changed the boards of Inquiry will focus on the period of
government. One of the major risks three state-owned enterprises at between April 2014 and the end of
on his horizon is the so-called the heart of the state-capture story: March 2018, linked to suspended
Premier League. This is the name Denel, SAA, SA Express, Transnet SARS head Tom Moyane’s tenure,
given to the powerful block of and Eskom. Parliament has kept up who is in addition facing disciplinary
provincial leaders in the African the pressure on state-owned proceedings.
National Congress who have enterprises with a succession of
The President has also confirmed
leveraged their control of provincial public inquiries, especially
the creation of review panel to deal
budgets to build substantial political procurement practices.
with allegations of corruption in the
clout. The three are: Deputy Minister Pravin Gordhan’s mandate state security agency and to root
President David Mabuza (previously to address problems in SOEs, out the compromised shadow state
Mpumalanga premier); the ANC rebuilding and strengthening created by Former President Zuma.
secretary-general Ace Magashule governance, rooting out corruption,
(previously Free State Premier) and The head of State Security, Arthur
restoring their financial position and
Former North West Premier Supra Frazer, who was implicated in
ensuring that they fulfil their
Mahumapelo. Ramaphosa’s corruption dealings, was moved to
economic and developmental
administration in taking over the Correctional Services and is now
mandates is slowly bearing fruit.
provincial government of North subject to a court challenge by the
The appointment of Phakamani
West due to service delivery Democratic Alliance to force him
Hadebe as Group Chief Executive of
protests and corruption; ultimately out of government completely.
Eskom was widely welcomed along
© BRUNSWICK GROUP 20185 Rhamaphosa's first 100 days
4 points of risk
Winter in the country during Ramaphosa’s
first 100 days as president. Labour,
the resolution: that it will not be
allowed to harm food security and
business and communities are growth. When he speaks to rallies
There is always a rise in protests in working to forge a new social and to mass gatherings, he
winter in South Africa. The compact around job creation, which emphasises expropriation which is a
character of his presidency - that will form the basis for a broader wildly popular symbol of a wider
“Ramaphoria” -has also raised compact around growth, redistribution of wealth.
expectations and this may impact development and transformation.
on political stability. Mr Mr Ramaphosa will hold a Job The recent ANC land summit, which
Ramaphosa’s rise has also Summit in September to produce invited civil society to participate in
emboldened provincial interests in far reaching measures to create its deliberations to develop a
provinces run by the iron fist of the jobs. The joint initiative wiil involve position on land expropriation
Premier League. The Mahikeng all social partners in finding social without compensation, was
protests against Supra compacts on jobs and examples of unprecedented. The ANC National
Mahumapelo are replicated on a collaboration and partnerships to Executive Committee, the party’s
smaller scale in Mpumalanga and investigate recent agreements on a highest decision-making body,
the Free State, where different national minimum wage and labour agreed to consult traditional leaders
factions see an opportunity to stability and broader society before ratifying
loosen the stranglehold on the consolidated position that was
provincial tenders, so more
networks can benefit. Election 2019 tabled by the summit on using
Section 25 in the constitution to
implement the policy of
Ramaphosa is quickly moving to cut The last opinion polls put the ANC expropriation without
off money flows by clamping down support at 50% if an election were compensation. Mr Ramaphosa and
on access to provincial finances. to be held today. It is going to be a the ANC Committee on land reform
This is most visible in the North tough campaign for the ANC seems to be accepting legal
West, which has been placed under although the impact of Mr consensus that the constitution
administration. The balance of Ramaphosa’s election has been makes provision for expropriation
forces under Ramaphosa is finely good news for the party. Mr and what is required is appropriate
balanced: he won with only 179 Ramaphosa recently met with the legislation rather than an
votes at the party’s Nasrec Independent Electoral Commission amendment of the constitution.
conference in December. He following speculation of an early There seems to be great consensus
possesses state power and the election in October or November. around the setting up of a high-
ability to deploy but the Indications are that elections will level panel located in the
fundamental tension of his only be held early next year given Presidency to align government’s
presidency is that as he unwinds the the levels of preparation required to efforts regarding land reform and
current patronage networks; so run a national election. guide the process at the helm of
more networks can benefit, he the executive.
increases his political risks.
Land
Labour Mr Ramaphosa is doing what he
does well: weighting his messages
The unions are in a weakened and with different parts of the
divided state with the split of the SA parliamentary resolution on land
Federation of Trade Unions (Saftu) expropriation without
from the Congress of South African compensation. When he speaks to
Trade Unions (Cosatu). Cosatu has investors and to agri-business, Mr
claimed that 300,000 jobs were lost Ramaphosa emphasises the rider to
© BRUNSWICK GROUP 20186 Rhamaphosa's first 100 days
Movers & shakers in the
Ramaphosa presidency
In addition to the circles and networks Trudi Makhaya
Ramaphosa uses, he is steadily building up a set The newly announced economic advisor to
Mr Ramaphosa is a top economist in South
of movers and shakers who run his presidency. Africa. She’s going to coordinate the work of the
Presidential Investment envoys and ensure the
economy is at the centre of the Presidency.
Ms Makhaya is also a columnist in Business Day and ran her
Steyn Speed own consultancies called Makhaya Advisory Services.
Speed is Mr Ramaphosa’s political advisor
and de facto Chief-of-Staff. He is a long-time
aide and confidante. He has moved with
Mr Ramaphosa through various his life-cycles Chippy Olver
including his times in business and in politics. This former Director General of Environmental
Mild-mannered and adroit, Mr Speed is an ace speechwriter Affairs was the key technocrat in the Ramaphosa
and strategist. He is a veteran ANC member and official and has campaign, in keeping core supporters onside
also served the governing party for decades. and running the technological spine of the
campaign. His experience as a member of the
ANC task team to retain its base in the Nelson Mandela Bay
municipality, made Mr Olver a crucial cog in the wheel to
maintaining party support for Mr Ramaphosa.
Khusela Diko
Ms Diko is Ramaphosa’s spokesperson and
communications advisor. She used to be ANC
spokesperson and she commands a strong Senzo Mchunu
support base in the SA-based local and He is now full-time organizational head of the
international media corps. Like most ANC ANC and in charge of the party’s
media people, Ms Diko is also a seasoned politician and powerful branch network. It’s a vital position
activist. She is dispassionate and unflappable and had the ear to shore up Mr Ramaphosa’s position in the ANC.
of Mr Gwede Mantashe when she represented the governing
A staunch Ramaphosa ally who ran the election
party at its Luthuli House headquarters.
campaign on the ground, By stepping back from a bruising war
at the ANC conference at Nasrec in December, Mr Mchunu
secured an easy onboarding for Mr Ramaphosa as party
Bejani Chauke president. It is widely believed that there was some
Mr Chauke is Ramaphosa’s chief political gerrymandering of the count for the position of party secretary-
strategist and advisor. He is Mr Ramaphosa’s general, which Mr Mchunu contested.
longtime parliamentary counselor and is a He is also crucial, with Police Minister Bheki Cele, to ensure that
sharp and strategic mind. He devised Mr. the party’s massive KwaZulu-Natal membership and its unhappy
Ramaphosa’s campaign and ensured that the and warring provincial leadership do not erupt into the kind of
Zuma family was brought onside when his candidate won the political instability besetting the North West province
ANC race at Nasrec. Mr Chauke is a general advisor, but his
key role is to ensure that the ANC wins a significant victory in
next year’s election, as that will open up Mr Ramaphosa’s path
to a successful two terms. In addition, a significant win will give Zizi Kodwa
the President greater leverage to shape the ANC to
Head of the Presidency in the ANC. The party’s
support him.
former spokesperson is back in a much stronger
position in the governing party — he is effectively
Mr Ramaphosa’s eyes and ears at Luthuli House.
Mr. Kodwa was always much more than a spin
Marion Sparg doctor — he is an adept political fighter and in a divided ANC, he
This former MK soldier is a longtime will prove important political cover for Mr. Ramaphosa who
Ramaphosa supporter based in the ANC needs Luthuli House to be fighting in his corner.
head-office to manage his office. She has While they may say otherwise, both the secretary-general Ace
worked closely with Mr Ramaphosa in his Magashule and his deputy Jessie Duarte are not in Mr
role as ANC secretary-general and also at Shanduka the Ramaphosa’s corner. In a crucial election year, he needs the party
company, which holds his various assets. headquarters to swim in the same stream as he is.
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