PUBLIC HEALTH EVENT FOLLOW UP: COVID-19 06/03/20 - WIV-ISP
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PUBLIC HEALTH EVENT FOLLOW UP:
COVID-19 - 06/03/20
1. Risk assessment ............................................................................................................................................ 1
2. Epidemiological evolution ............................................................................................................................ 2
3. Geographical spread ..................................................................................................................................... 4
1. Risk assessment
1.1. CONTEXT
In December 2019, the health authorities in Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of patients with
pneumonia of unknown cause. A new type of coronavirus was identified as the cause. Since then, the
epidemic has spread to many countries on all continents.
03/02/2020: First case in Belgium, in an asymptomatic person repatriated from Wuhan.
23/02/2020: Increase of number of cases in Italy, in 3 clusters. No clear link with travel to China or a
confirmed case.
01/03/2020: Increasing number of cases in the EU/EEA and UK without defined chain of transmission,
leading to imported cases in Belgium, following the end of the holidays.
1.2. RISK MODIFICATION: NOT CHANGED
Symptoms are most often mild in a healthy person and the severity still moderate with a case fatality
rate about 2%, mainly in persons having underlying health conditions, or in older age groups.
Virus has been found in asymptomatic persons but there is no evidence that they are able to transmit
the virus at that moment.
Belgium is prepared and medical doctors are informed.
The increasing number of cases in the EU/EEA and the UK, and the end of the holidays with returning
travelers increases the risk of more imported cases.
Based on the epidemiological situation, under daily monitoring, the case definition was changed on
05/03. The number of regions in Italy considered as risk areas has been expanded, and all severe
respiratory tract infections with hospitalization (excluding those of suspected bacterial origin) are
considered as suspected cases, irrespective of travel history. The observed increase in number of
cases in France and Germany is mainly related to localized clusters, and at this stage, these countries
are not included.
1.3. ASSESSMENT
Considering these elements, health authorities initiated phase 2 of the Belgian pandemic plan on the 1st of
March.
Update 06/03/20202. Epidemiological evolution Situation in Belgium On the 6th of March, a total of 109 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Belgium, of which the majority in Flanders (60%), 29% in Wallonia and 11% in Brussels. No deaths have been reported. The age of the cases ranges between 6 and 76 years, with a median age of 39 years. Sex ratio m/f : 1.5. Number of new cases of COVID-19 by day, by continent Distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in EU/EEA and the UK and Switzerland and additional countries (Source : ECDC)
Evolution of the case fatality rate among laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Worldwide)
The evidence from analyses of cases to date is that COVID-19 infection causes mild disease in about 80%
of cases, 14 % have more severe disease and 6% experience critical illness.
The median age of cases detected outside of China: 45 years (2 to 74 y).
Number of laboratory-confirmed cases among health care workers in China: 1716. Among them 5 have
died (data published on 18/02/2020).
Overview of the epidemiological situation worldwide
Date Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Case Context
number of cases number of fatality
Cases in elsewhere Deaths rate
China*
Past weeks
18-24/01/2020 882 15 26 2.9% All public traffic and public
places closed in
Wuhan/Huanggang on 23/01.
All Chinese provinces affected.
25-31/01/2020 9 734 102 213 2.2% First cases in EU (France,
Germany, UK, Italy).
WHO declares Public Health
Emergency of International
Concern (31/01).
01-07/02/2020 31 217 286 638 2.0% First death outside China (in
The Philippines).
Repatriation of 9 Belgian
residents in Wuhan, in
quarantine at military hospital.
One asymptomatic person
tested positive for 201-_nCoV
(04/02).08-14/02/2020 64 021 523 1 383 2.1% The case definition in Hubei
province changed. All clinically
diagnosed cases now also
count as confirmed cases
together with lab-confirmed
cases.
15-22/02/2020 76 388 1 437 2 359 3.0% Singapore and Hong Kong have
declared low-level community
transmission. Two new
countries (Lebanon and Israel)
reported cases. An increase of
cases is reported in South-
Korea and in Italy.
Current week
23-29/02/2020 79 355 5 847 2 921 3.4% Several countries reported
cases for the first time.
Further increase of number of
cases in Iran, Italy, South Korea
and Japan. WHO increased the
assessment of the risk of
spread and the risk of impact of
COVID-19 to very high at a
global level.
01/03/2020 79 929 7 094 2 979 3.4% A second case confirmed in
Belgium. Health authorities
initiate phase 2 of the pandemic
plan.
02/03/2020 80 134 8 934 3 046 3.4% Six new cases in Belgium, in
people returning from Italy.
03/03/2020 80 261 10 402 3 124 3.4% Six new cases in Belgium: five
in people returning from Italy,
one contact of confirmed case.
04/03/2020 80 380 12 696 3 202 3.4% Nine new cases in Belgium, in
people returning from Italy.
05/03/2020 80 524 14 818 3 282 3.4% The number of countries
reporting cases continues to
rise. Three more countries in
Europe reported cases for the
first time.
06/03/2020 80 667 17 504 3 385 3.4% 59 new cases confirmed in
Belgium; majority returning from
Italy, but also contaminations in
Belgium.
* including Special Administrative Regions
3. Geographical spread
Number of cases by country on 06/03/2020
Date first Country Nb cases Deaths
case
31/12/2019 China 80 667 3 044
(incl. Special Administrative Regions)
Europe 5 338 161
Germany 400
France 423 7UK 115 1
31/01 Italy 3 858 148
Spain 261 3
04/02 Belgium 109
30/01 Finland 12
Sweden 61
01/02 Russia 4
26/02 Austria 41
Croatia 10
Switzerland 87 1
27/02 Denmark 20
Georgia 9
Greece 32
North Macedonia 1
Norway 86
Romania 6
28/02 The Netherlands 82
Belarus 6
Estonia 5
Lithuania 1
San Marino 22 1
29/02 Azerbaijan 6
Iceland 35
Monaco 1
01/03 Armenia 1
Ireland 13
Luxemburg 1
02/03 Czech Republic 12
03/03 Andorra 1
Latvia 1
Portugal 9
04/03 Poland 1
Ukraine 1
05/03 Hungary 2
Liechtenstein 1
Slovenia 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina 2
Asia 10 711 160
America 311 12
Oceania 63 2
Africa 29 0
TOTAL WORLWIDE 98 171 3 385Worldwide distribution of COVID-19 cases Source: WHO Situation reports: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation- reports/
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