Seoul, Korea 6 June 2018 - Umicore
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Seoul, Korea 6 June 2018
Unprecedented
growth in
Automotive
Catalysts
SPEAKER
Pascal Reymondet
Executive Vice-President Catalysis
2
Agenda
Business profile
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Diesel
Key takeaways
3
Business model
At Automotive Catalysts we develop technologies which
allow our customers to meet automotive emission
legislation at the lowest Total Cost of Ownership
Complete
catalyst systems Customer
to reduce exhaust focus
gas emissions
People Operational
engagement excellence
Global
manufacturing &
technical footprint
4
Global Production Footprint
Light duty vehicles
Karlskoga Nowa Ruda
Sweden Poland
Burlington
Canada Onsan
Korea
Tulsa, OK Rheinfelden/
Bad Säckingen Himeji
USA Japan
Germany
Suzhou
China
Americana
Brazil
Port Elizabeth Pune Rayong
South Africa India Thailand
5
Global Production Footprint
Heavy duty diesel
Frederikssund
Denmark
Florange Tianjin
France China
Onsan
Korea
Suzhou
China
Joinville Pune
Brazil India (SOP 2019)
6
Global Footprint
R&D and Technical centers
Hanau Lyngby Songdo
Germany Denmark Korea
Tokoname
Japan
Auburn Hills, MI
USA
Himeji
Tulsa, OK
Japan
USA
Suzhou
China
Americana
Brazil
7
Recent additions through M&A
Frederikssund Lyngby
Denmark Denmark
Tianjin
China
Onsan/Songdo
Korea
Houston, TX
USA
Joinville
Brazil
8
A clear trend towards clean mobility
EU rolls out Bharat Stage VI:
stricter car India revises
emission tests standards
Reuters 31/08/2017 specifications for
petrol and diesel.
Reuters 18/01/2018
Europe bolsters
regulatory clout China 6 emission
over carmakers. standard to be
implemented in
Bloomberg 19/04/2018
2020. COMMENTS
FROM THE PRESS
Autonews 11/05/2018
9
Agenda
Business profile
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Diesel
Key takeaways
10More stringent emission norms across regions
No tolerance for pollution
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
USA Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4?
USA CARB LEV III LEV IV?
EU Euro 6b Euro 6d temp Euro 6d Euro 7?
Russia Euro 5 Euro 6?
Japan Japan 2009 Japan 2022?
China National CN 4 CN 5 CN 6a CN 6b
China Beijing CN 5 Beijing 6 -> 6b CN 7?
India National BS III BS IV BS VI BS VII?
India Cities BS IV (50-70 cities) BS VI BS VII?
South Korea Gasoline LEV III LEV IV?
South Korea Diesel Euro 6 Euro 7?
Indonesia Euro 4 Euro5?
Thailand Euro4 Euro5?
Brazil PL 6 PL 6+ (GPF & 160kkm durability) not offidially decided PL 7?
Argentina Euro 5 Euro 6?
11China, Europe and India on the verge
of massive tightening of emission norms
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
USA Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4?
USA CARB LEV III LEV IV?
2 EU Euro 6b Euro 6d temp Euro 6d Euro 7?
Russia Euro 5 Euro 6?
Japan Japan 2009 Japan 2022?
1 China National CN 4 CN 5 CN 6a CN 6b
China Beijing CN 5 Beijing 6 -> 6b CN 7?
3 India National BS III BS IV BS VI BS VII?
0,8 cm India Cities BS IV (50-70 cities) BS VI BS VII?
South Korea Gasoline LEV III LEV IV?
South Korea Diesel Euro 6 Euro 7?
Indonesia Euro 4 Euro5?
Thailand Euro4 Euro5?
Brazil PL 6 PL 6+ (GPF & 160kkm durability) not offidially decided PL 7?
Argentina Euro 5 Euro 6?
121 China changes its role
China
from follower to pace setter
July 1st July 1st
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Emission
CN 4 CN 5 CN 6a* CN 6b*
Standards
Emission: New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) World Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Cycle (WLTC)
Cycle
Fuel Efficiency (F.E.): NEDC F.E.: China Cycle
Real Driving Development & Measurement Phase Only monitor Full operation
Emissions (RDE) CFPN : 2.1, CFNOX; 2.1
Durability 100,000 km 160,000 km 200,000 km
On board CN 4 CN 5 CN 6
*Fuel neutral; diagnostics
Particulate
Number (PN) and
Particulate Mass Fuel IV V VI A VI B
(PM) required for
all engines.
Fuel Efficiency
6.9 6.7 6.4 6 5.5 5 4
(L/100km)
131 China’s huge gasoline fleet
China
will become much cleaner
TWC
China 5: current
TWC TWC
Gasoline PM limit of 4.5mg/km
TWC TWC
CHINA
LDV MARKET
BY 2025
34
million
Single or double Three Way Catalyst
China 6a: July 2020 TWC TWC
More stringent CO, HC, NOx limits TWC GPF/cGPF
Gasoline PN limit of 6 x 1011 TWC GPF/cGPF
1.7x value vs. China 5 Partial introduction of particulate
filters (cGPF) for gasoline engines
China 6b RDE: July 2023 TWC cGPF
• Gasoline PN limit of 6 x
1011 TWC cGPF
Source: IHS • Conformity factor (CF) 2.1x under RDE
TWC cGPF TWC
May 2018 • HC and NOx further reduced
cGPF for all gasoline engines
2.4x value vs. China 5
142 Significant impact from
Europe
new European testing regime
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
130 g/km 95 g/km
CO2 target 100% fleet 95% > 100% fleet
-15% -30%
Emission Euro 6d TEMP Euro 6d
Euro 6b
standards
NEDC-based WLTC-based
Post Euro 6
NEDC / WLTC
testing testing
Real Driving CF1PN: 1.5 CF2PN: 1.0+margin (0.5)*
Development and
Emissions monitoring
F.E. : NEDCphase CF1NOx: 2.1 CF2Nox: 1.0+margin (0.5)*
On Board
Euro 6-1 Euro 6-2
Diagnostics
All dates: New type approval Passenger Cars
*annual review and revision as a result of improved quality of PEMS procedure or technical progress
152 RDE calls for massive fitment
Europe
with gasoline particulate filters
Euro 6b: current
TWC
TWC TWC
Gasoline PN limit of 6x1011/km
TWC TWC
EURO 6 REGION
LDV MARKET 20
million
Single or double Three Way Catalyst
BY 2025
Euro 6d temp: Sept. 2018* TWC GPF/cGPF
Gasoline PN limit of 6x1011/km with TWC GPF/cGPF
PN CF 1.5x under RDE cGPF TWC
1.8 x value vs. Euro 6b TWC cGPF TWC
GPF/cGPF for almost all GDI engines
Euro 6d final: Jan. 2021* TWC GPF/cGPF
Gasoline PN limit 6 x 1011 with TWC GPF/cGPF
Source: IHS PN CF 1.0-1.5x under RDE
May 2018 cGPF TWC
* For all new vehicles sold
2.2 x value vs. Euro 6b TWC cGPF TWC
cGPF for ~80% of all GDI engines
and 50% of MPI engines
162 RDE calls for more complex
Europe
diesel catalysts
Euro 6b: current DOC SDPF
NOx emission limit of 80 mg/km NSC cDPF
EURO 6 REGION
LDV MARKET 20
million
NSC or SCR for NOx and particulate filters
BY 2025
Euro 6d temp: Sept. 2019*
DOC or
SDPF SCR
NOx emission limit of 80 mg/km NSC
with NOx CF 2.1x under RDE NSC cDPF SCR
1.3x value vs. Euro 6b Majority with SCR
Euro 6d final: Jan. 2021*
DOC or
ASC
SDPF SCR
NOx emission limit of 80 mg/km NSC
Source: IHS
with NOx CF 1.0-1.5x under RDE
ASC
May 2018 NSC cDPF SCR
* For all new vehicles sold
1.5x value vs. Euro 6b Additional „underfloor SCR / ASC“
with twin urea dosing
173 India leapfrogs from Bharat Stage IV to VI
India
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Legislation BS IV BS VI BS VI RDE (TBC)
NEDC (Modified) WLTP (TBC)
Certification
RDE monitoring RDE mandatory
183 Introducing similar norms
India
to Euro 6b for gasoline…
Bharat Stage IV: current TWC
No gasoline particulate limit TWC TWC
INDIA
LDV MARKET 8
million
Single or double Three Way Catalyst
obligatory but no stringent control
BY 2025
Bharat Stage VI: 2020 TWC
Gasoline particulate limit of 6x1011/km TWC TWC
Single or double Three Way
1.5x value vs. BS IV Catalyst volume increase
Bharat Stage VI RDE: 2023 (TBC) TWC cGPF
Gasoline particulate limit of 6x1011/km
Source: IHS cGPF TWC
May 2018
3x value vs. BS IV cGPF for all GDI engines
193 As well as for diesel
India
Bharat Stage IV: current
INDIA
LDV MARKET 8
million NOx emission limits of 250mg/km
DOC cDPF
BY 2025
Oxidation catalyst required with
particulate filter optional
Bharat Stage VI: 2020
DOC SDPF
• NOx emission limit of 80mg/km
• Particle emission limit 6 x1011/km NSC cDPF
Particulate filters (DPFs) and active NOx
3 x value vs. BS IV treatment (NSC or SDPF) required for
Source: IHS all diesel engines
May 2018
20Tightening emission norms
drive massive value uplift
Average Value Gasoline Catalyst Average Value Diesel Catalyst
China 6 Euro 6d
• 2020: value x 1.7 vs. current • 2019: value x 1.3 vs. current
• 2023: value x 2.4 vs. current • 2020: value x 1.5 vs. current
Euro 6d Bharat VI
• 2019: value x 1.8 vs. current • 2020: value x 3.0 vs. current
• 2020: value x 2.2 vs. current
Bharat VI
• 2020: value x 1.5 vs. current
• 2023: value x 3.0 vs. current
x2 Upside value of up to 20% for pHEV catalysts
x1.5
21Leading to massive growth
in the light duty vehicle market
MARKET VALUE
EVOLUTION BY
REGION Global LDV
market nearly
Europe
doubling in value
Greater China by 2025
Japan / Korea
Middle East / Africa
China representing
the lionshare
North America
of the value
South America increase
South Asia
(mainly India)
Source: IHS data and
Umicore estimates 1
2017 2
2020 3
2025
Excluding the upside potential of hybrid cars
22Umicore best positioned
to capture this growth
Gaining significant
share in growing
gasoline segment
Disproportionate
share of GPF Smaller
platforms won in player in light
Europe and China duty diesel
23Agenda
Business profile
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Diesel
Key takeaways
24Global emission standards for HDD continue
to tighten
HDD 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Europe EU VI a,b EU VI c EU VI d EU VII?
North America GHG Regulation, Phase 1 GHG Regulation, Phase 2
Japan JP 16 JP 17?
South Korea EU VI EU VIc?
Brazil Proconve P7 Proconve P8
Russia EU IV EU V EU VI?
India (Nationwide) BS III BS IV BS VI BS VII?
China (Nationwide) CN IV CN V CN VI CN VII?
NRMM Europe Stage IV Stage V Stage VI?
North America Tier 4b Tier 5?
Japan Tier 4b Tier 5?
South Korea Tier 4b Tier 5?
Brazil Tier 3b Tier 4a?
China (Nationwide) Stage IIIa CN IV CN VI?
India BS III BS IV BS V
NRMM = non-road mobile machinery
25China and India on the verge
of massive tightening of emission norms
HDD 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Europe EU VI a,b EU VI c EU VI d EU VII?
North America GHG Regulation, Phase 1 GHG Regulation, Phase 2
Japan JP 16 JP 17?
South Korea EU VI EU VIc?
Brazil Proconve P7 Proconve P8
Russia EU IV EU V EU VI?
2 India (Nationwide) BS III BS IV BS VI BS VII?
1 China (Nationwide) CN IV CN V CN VI CN VII?
NRMM Europe Stage IV Stage V Stage VI?
North America Tier 4b Tier 5?
Japan Tier 4b Tier 5?
South Korea Tier 4b Tier 5?
Brazil Tier 3b Tier 4a?
China (Nationwide) Stage IIIa CN IV CN VI?
India BS III BS IV BS V
261 China VI to significantly toughen
China
HDD emission standards
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GB17691 CN VI
CN III CN IV CN V
On-Road
GB20891 CN Stage IV
CN Stage II CN Stage III
Off-Road (TBC)
271 More advanced catalytic systems for
China
HDD in the largest market globally
China V: current
CHINA
HDD MARKET
BY 2025
3.6 NOx limit of 2000 mg/kWh
SCR for NOx aftertreatment
million
China VI: 2021
• NOx limit of 460 mg/kWh
• Particulate number limit
Additional DOC and
6.0x1011 cDPF necessary
2.8 x value vs. China V
Source: KGP & Umicore assumptions
on-road and non-road engines produced May 2018
282 India leapfrogs from Bharat Stage
India
IV to BS VI
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Legislation BS IV BS VI BS VI Stage 2
ESC, ETC WHTC, WHSC
Certification
PEMS monitoring PEMS mandatory
292 BS VI calls for significantly more complex
India
catalysts on all on-road HDD
INDIA Bharat Stage IV: current
HDD MARKET
BY 2025
1.1 NOx limit 3500 mg/kWh
million
Low SCR penetration
Bharat Stage VI: 2020
NOx limit 460 mg/kWh
Particulate and NOx treatment necessary
4 x value vs. BS IV
Source: KGP & Umicore assumptions
on-road and non-road engines produced
May 2018
30Tightening emission norms and
market growth drive massive value uplift…
China 6 Bharat VI
Legislation
2021: 2020:
value x 2.8 vs. current value x 4 vs. current
Market Global HDD market expected
growth to grow 1.6x between 2017 and 2025
Source: KGP and Umicore assumptions
(expected on-road and non-road engines produced)
31Leading to massive growth
in the heavy duty diesel market
MARKET VALUE
EVOLUTION BY
REGION Global HDD
Europe market more than
Greater China doubling in value
Japan / Korea
by 2025
Middle East / Africa China
North America quintupling
South America by 2025
South Asia
(mainly India)
2017 2020 2025
Source: KGP data and Umicore estimates
32Umicore well positioned
to capture this growth
Competitive Strong position Development
technology in China which partner of most
portfolio is becoming the major HDD
largest HDD market OEMs
33Total LDV and HDD catalyst market
set for unprecedented value growth
MARKET VALUE
EVOLUTION BY
REGION Value growth
Europe by far outpacing
Greater China vehicle
Japan / Korea
production
Middle East / Africa Technology and
North America Innovation play
South America
South Asia
(mainly India)
1
2017 2
2020 3
2025
Source: IHS, KGP, Umicore estimates
34Agenda
Business profile
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Diesel
Key takeaways
35Key takeaways
Unprecedented
Umicore well
value growth driven by
positioned to outgrow
advanced catalyst
the market through its
systems for tighter
technology leadership
legislation both in LDV
in key segments
and HDD
China becoming
the pace setter
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