Polygon Token 3rd June 2021 - Admantium Finance's Research Desk
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Summary Particulars Polygon Target Price $3.29* Current Price $1.83 Transaction Volume (in Mn) $2,078.60 MarketCap.(in Mn) $11,412.77 Market cap. dominance 0.63% APY (Avg.) 15.56% * Based on quantitative analysis
1. About Polygon A. A Brief Introduction Formerly referred to as Matic Network (rebranded in February 2021), Polygon is a layer-2 network, developed to add additional scalability to Ethereum and improve interoperability between its blockchains. Preserving the MATIC token symbol, Polygon is described as “Ethereum’s internet of blockchains”, which represents an easy-to-use platform for Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development. Polygon strives to solve some of Ethereum’s major drawbacks, including poor user experience (delayed transactions), insufficient throughput, and lack of community governance, with a new sidechain solution. Users can deposit Ethereum tokens to a Polygon bridge smart contract, interact with them within Polygon sidechain, and then later withdraw them back to the Ethereum main chain, if need be. The MATIC token is used to pay transaction fees and participate in proof-of-stake consensus. The core element of the platform is Polygon SDK, a flexible modular framework, which contributes to creating numerous types of applications. With the use of Plasma side chains (designed to facilitate off-chain transactions, making them fast and cost-effective for blockchains), Matic Network built an environment that enabled cheaper, easier and faster launch of decentralized applications (dApps) to market. The attractiveness of the Matic solution was backed by high gas fees on Ethereum and increased demand in the development of dApps. B. Products I) Matic Wallet Matic Wallet is a Plasma wallet mobile app, integrated with WalletConnect, to ensure secure storage of keys, intuitive access to the features provided by Polygon, as well as a seamless mechanism to connect browser based DApps to the mobile app. II) Dagger Developers can use Dagger to track their own smart contracts, accounts and transactions. They can create custom service or integrate with third-party services through IFTTT or Zapier.
III) Matic Token The MATIC token has three key use cases: a) Participating in the Proof of Stake consensus b) Paying for the transaction fees in the network c) Using a portion of the transaction fees, paid in terms of Matic tokens. This would create a fund to help support developers working on features and dApps needed by the network to get a part of block rewards. It would also support staking mechanism for backing the ecosystem projects. C. Mission Polygon’s mission is to be Ethereum’s Internet of Blockchains, by providing a framework for building and connecting Ethereum-compatible blockchain networks. D. Revenue Matic has allotted 1.2 billion Matic tokens (12% of the total supply) towards staking rewards. This is to ensure that the network is seeded well enough until transaction fees gain traction. These rewards are primarily meant to jump-start the network, while the protocol in the long run is intended to sustain itself on the basis of transaction fees. Validator Rewards = Staking Rewards + Transaction Fees This is allocated in a way to ensure gradual decoupling of staking rewards from being the dominant component of the validator rewards. Year Target Stake (30% of Reward Rate for Reward Pool circulating supply) 30% Bonding First 1,977,909,431 20% 312,917,369 Second 2,556,580,023 12% 275,625,675 Third 2,890,642,855 9% 246,933,140 Fourth 2,951,934,048 7% 204,303,976 Fifth 2,996,518,749 5% 148,615,670 + 11,604,170 Source:BlogMatic
Yearly rewards as mentioned above are absolute, regardless of the overall stake or the target bonding rate in the network. The platform has committed that the above amount will be given out as a reward to all checkpoint signers periodically. Stakers running validator nodes and stakers delegating their tokens toward a validator that they prefer, would be able to avail of these rewards. Validators will have an option to charge a commission on the reward earned by delegators. Funds belonging to all stakers will be locked in a contract deployed on the Ethereum main-chain and no validator would hold custody over delegator ’s tokens. In addition to the above rewards, a bonus is also paid to the validator who is ready to work with an additional element of committing periodic checkpoints (a Merkle tree hash representation of the Matic sidechain blocks) to the Ethereum mainnet. Such validators are called proposers. The bonus given is based on a cost-reward ratio as explained below, with the following assumptions: ETH Price: $200 MATIC Price: $0.013 Gwei considered: 30 Gas considered: 1,000,000 Checkpoint interval: 15 mins Checkpoint cost-to-reward ratio pertaining to the checkpoint reward during the first year of live network, based on the above assumptions, comes to 5.18%. If we were to update the interval to 30 mins, then the same ratio comes down to 2.59%. Lastly, each block producer at BOR layer (the block producer layer) will be given a certain percentage of the transaction fees collected in each block. The exact percentage of transaction fees is decided taking into consideration the overall statistics of the live network. Until then, the bundle flows through the same funnel, disbursing everything collected among all validators.
E. Team Previously AVP (Product Management) with IRIS Business, a leader in software products for Regulatory bodies across the globe. He is also a serial entrepreneur and has had an exit with his previous firm named Dexter Consultancy. Previously at Anurag Arjun Co-Founder & Chief Cognizant Technologies and SNL Financial. Product Officer Core contributor for the first Plasma MVP implementation. Wrote the first Node implementation of the original Walletconnect protocol. Contributed to Web3 and developer ecosystem tools like sol-trace. Previously Data Scientist with Housing.com Jaynti Kanani Co-founder & CEO Ex-CTO (Ecommerce) of Welspun Group. Previously ran a Blockchain services & product firm working with various clients to design and implement their Decentralized app architectures. An ex-Deloitte Technology consultant, he comes from a top Sandeep Nailwal Co-founder & Chief B-School in India. Operations Officer Mihailo is the recent addition to the co-founders of Polygon. He is also the co-founder for 0xPolygon and an active crypto influencer on Twitter. He currently resides in Serbia. Mihailo Bjelic Co-founder
2. Tokenomics 12% 19% 2.09% 1.71% 23.33% 16% 4% 21.86% Launchpad Sale Seed Early Supporters Team Advisors Foundation Ecosystem Staking Rewards Source:Binance A. Token Supply Distribution I) Private Sale Tokens comprise 3.80% of the total supply: a) Seed Round: Sale conducted at a rate of 1 MATIC = 0.00079 USD and raised a total of USD 165,000, selling 2.09% of total token supply b) Early Supporters: Sale conducted at a rate of 1 MATIC = 0.00263 USD and raised a total of USD 450,000, selling 1.71% of the total token supply. II) Launchpad Sale Tokens comprise 19% of total supply. It was conducted in April 2019 for a total raise of $5,000,000 USD worth of BNB at $0.00263 per token for 19% of the total token supply. The BNB to MATIC rate will be determined on the day of the sale. III) Team Tokens comprise 16% of the total supply. IV) Advisors Tokens comprise 4% of the total supply. V) Network Operations Tokens comprise 12% of the total supply. VI) Foundation Tokens comprise 21.86% of the total supply. VII) Ecosystem Tokens comprise 23.33% of the total supply.
B. Token Governance and Use of Funds Matic Network has used approximately 7% of TGE funds according to the allocations below: • 1% Partnerships. • 9% Marketing. • 15% Legal. • 75% Technical Development. As per their risk management strategy, Matic plans to perpetually hold sufficient fiat reserves to fund their operational costs for at least 12 months. The rest of any funds held in crypto will be stored in cold wallets with multi-signature support. C. MATIC Token Release Schedule The following chart represents the number and breakdown of all MATIC tokens that are intended to be released into circulation on a monthly basis. MATIC release schedule (%) Source: Binance Particulars April 2019 April 2020 April 2021 April 2022 Launchpad Sale (%) 19 19 19 19 Seed (%) 1.05 2.09 2.09 2.09 Early Supporters (%) 0.86 1.71 1.71 1.71 Team (%) 0 3.2 9.6 16 Advisors (%) 0 2.67 4 4 Foundation (%) 2.74 8.21 13.69 19.16 Ecosystem (%) 4.67 14 23.33 23.33 Staking Rewards (%) 4 7 10 12
3. Social Media Analysis Social media metrics: Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Date of incorporation 10/15/2017 04/8/2020 11/10/2016 07/30/2015 09/27/2017 Number of Days 1326 421 1666 2135 1345 Tweets 3,522 3,241 3,207 3,015 4,309 Tweets per day 2.66 7.69 1.92 1.41 3.20 Followers 422,285 303,428 450,513 1,302,458 652,681 Followers per day 318.46 720.73 270.41 610.05 485.26 Replies 0 /100 1 /100 0 / 100 0 /100 3 / 100 Tweets with @mentions 74 / 100 75 / 100 73 / 100 98 / 100 57 / 100 Tweets with #hashtags 23 / 100 9 / 100 69 / 100 19 / 100 37 / 100 Telegram Subscribers 51,227 84,822 34,063 5,261 53,942 Community Engagement on Telegram Yes Yes Yes No Yes Discord Members 16,383 43,487 8,057 4,915 N/A* Reddit Members 10,897 16,985 25,396 987,315 496,196 Source: Platform websites *N/A – Account not Available As per the above table, we observe that Polygon has posted approx. 3 tweets on average per day since its incorporation, which is higher than that of Polkadot and Ethereum. However, Cardano exceeds Polygon with approximately 8 tweets per day. Solana exceeds the considered group in terms of the average number of followers per day with approximately 720.73 additions every day since incorporation. Polygon comes fourth with 55.81% followers less than Solana at 318.46. This is a positive signal on the popularity of Polygon as it has been gaining more followers than comparatively mature peers like Polkadot (270.41). Polygon ranks third in the group in terms of the number of Twitter mentions of 74 tweets per 100 tweets and this further reflects positively on its community engagement. Polkadot leads the group in the number of tweets with hashtags at 69 out of 100, while Polygon ranks third in this metric with a total of 23 tweets with hashtags, out of 100. Lastly, Polygon has a strong community built on both Telegram and Discord, with number of members at 51,227 and 16,383 respectively, higher than most peers in the group. However, Polygon currently has 10,897 members on Reddit as compared to Ethereum with 987,315 members, Cardano with 496,196 members and Polkadot with 25,396 members. This reflects that Polygon has a long way to go in order to create a larger community on Reddit. Thus, we can conclude that the social media engagement of Polygon is quite decent and is expected to maintain momentum as the awareness about the platform increases.
A. Correlation Rank Source: Lunar Crush The Correlation Rank (0-100) is an algorithm that determines the correlation between the social media activity of a coin or a token and the price of the token. As can be seen from the above chart, the Correlation Rank for Polygon was 42 on 2nd June ‘21, which indicates the correlation between the price and social media activity is low for Polygon and that both bullish and bearish social media sentiments have low influence on the price of MATIC token. For comparison, the Correlation Rank of Tether is 64, Bitcoin is 52, and of Dogecoin is 68, out of a total of 100 as on 2nd June 2021. B. Galaxy Score Source: Lunar Crush
The Galaxy Score is a combined measure of cryptocurrency indicators, used to correlate and understand the overall health, quality and performance of a specific project. The overall score combines the Price Score, Social Sentiment, Social Impact & Correlation Ranking. This score can indicate the right time to buy, hold or sell the coin. On 2nd June 2021, the Galaxy Score for Polygon was 52. The lowest value that the score has reached for Solana is 51 on 15th April 2021. As the score has ranged consistently above 50, we can deduce that the crypto has been performing quite well and the overall market sentiment for the token is bullish, as well as reflecting the right time to buy and/or hold. For comparison, the Galaxy Score of Tether is 64, Bitcoin is 64, and of Dogecoin is 68.5, out of a total of 100 as on 2nd June 2021. C. Alt Rank Source: Lunar Crush AltRank reflects the value of positive popularity of coins built using a unique algorithm that analyses each news article, comments and provides efficient sentiment ranks between 0–2252. As per Lunar Crush, a lower AltRank is often considered better. It uses Price Change, Trading Volume, Social Volume and Social Score to measure the AltRank. The rank also looks at both financial metrics alongside community metrics and seeks to identify altcoins that outperform Bitcoin during specific timeframes. As on 2nd June 2021, Polygon’s AltRank was 96159. Its AltRank Average is 60; that indicates good health and performance of the MATIC token. For comparison, the AltRank of Tether is 37, Bitcoin is 35, and of Dogecoin is 1 as on 2nd June 2021.
D. Volatility Source: Lunar Crush Volatility on Lunar Crush measures the price fluctuations over time and uses a standard deviation of logarithmic returns to detect patterns. As can be seen in the above chart, the volatility in price of Polygon has ranged between 0.011 and 0.186. The volatility peaked on 12th March 2021 to 0.186 as the price rose from $0.07 to $0.19 on the same day. For comparison, the Volatility of Tether is 0.001, Bitcoin is 0.01, and of Dogecoin is 0.05 as on 2nd June 2021. 4.Fundamental Analysis Market Statistics Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Today’s Price $1.82 $35.63 $27.64 $2,817.55 $1.79 Market Cap. (in Mn) $11,363.99 $9,712.96 $27,610.51 $327,829.15 $57,376.75 Circulating Supply (in Mn) 6,262.08 272.63 998,87 116.13 32,066.39 Max Supply (in Mn) 10,000 488.63 1,079.81 ∞ 45,000 Market Cap. Dominance (%) 0.64 0.55 1.56 18.15 3.18 Fully Diluted Valuation (in Mn) $18,147.29 $17,407.93 $30,169 - $80,519 Trading Volume (in Mn) $2,003.43 $600.66 $2,270.21 $42,320.82 $4,087.40 Website Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Source: Coingecko.com
A. Ratio Analysis Note: To calculate the group average, we have considered tokens with varying levels of market capitalization. I. Network Value to Transaction Ratio Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Average Network value-to-transactions(NVT)ratio 5.67 15.38 11.86 8.64 14.12 11.13 Source: Coingecko Market Cap. to TVL Ratio for Polygon is 5.67x, which is approx. 51% lower than the group average; it thus indicates Polygon is undervalued and that there are a significant number of transactions taking place on the platform. Though undervalued, the MATIC token in the past few months has seen high growth due to a high rate in its blockchain adoption by major decentralized financial platforms, including SushiSwap, Aave, Curve Finance, and Open Sea. Over time Polygon’s price is likely to increase simultaneously with demand and is likely to approach the Average Market Cap. to TVL Ratio. Hence, this signifies a strong buy signal. II. Market Cap. to TVL Ratio Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Average Market Cap./ Total Value Locked 1.05 0.46 1.16 5.41 5.58 2.13 Source: Coingecko Market Cap. to TVL Ratio for Polygon is 1.05x, which is 49% lower than the group average and thus indicates Polygon is undervalued. Over time Polygon’s price is likely to increase simultaneously with supply and is likely to approach the Average Market Cap. to TVL Ratio. Hence, this signifies a strong buy signal.
III. Volume to Market Cap. Ratio Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Average Volume/Market Cap. 0.1767 0.0653 0.0843 0.1157 0.0713 0.1027 Source: Coingecko The Volume to market Cap. Ratio indicates the liquidity of a token in the market. Liquidity is vital because illiquid markets are often volatile. For Polygon, the Volume to Market Cap. Ratio is higher than the peer group’s average by 72%, at value 0.1767. Investors have a slightly higher preference towards trading the MATIC token, rather than holding the token over a longer period. IV. Average Transaction Value (ATV) Source: Etherscan Average Transaction Value measures how much, on average, users are spending on each transaction. A higher value usually indicates that users are transacting more tokens. Based on the graph above, Polygon’s AVT is significantly higher on date 2nd June 2021, at $25,493.14 than that of Polygon at the beginning of the year at value, $3,769.77. This tells us that users prefer to use the MATIC token now for transacting and trading as compared to before. This represents higher demand and increases the probability to see a push in the price of MATIC.
V. ROI Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Average Low-Frequency Trading Strategy (%) 7,301.67 761.91 488.60 561.80 1,093.79 2041.554 High-Frequency Trading Strategy (%) 3,697.34 1,273.97 488.60 11.56 -1.84 1036.96 Holding (HODLer) (%) 8,549.99 1,569.25 507.59 1,081.06 1,580.15 2657.61 Source: Token Metrics ROI evaluates the return on investment with its purchasing cost and ROI can also be used when comparing different types of investments or multiple trading operations. A high ROI value indicates that the investment is profitable, while a negative ROI means the return was lower than the costs. As seen from the above table, Polygon surpasses the peer average for Low-Frequency Trading Strategy, High-Frequency Trading Strategy and Holding (HODLer) strategy average with ROIs of 7,301.67%, 3,697.34% and 8,549.99% respectively. It can thus be inferred that Polygon offers higher potential earning to its investors and signifies that staking the MATIC token for longer periods is comparatively more fruitful than low frequency trading by 17% and high frequency trading by approx. 131%. VI. Sharpe Ratio Particulars Polygon Solana Polkadot Ethereum Cardano Average Sharpe Ratio (30 Days) 4.36 -0.24 -0.57 -0.55 2.46 1.09 Sharpe Ratio (90 Days) 4.18 2.85 0.0115 2.37 1.84 2.25 Sharpe Ratio (1 Year) 3.00 2.95 1.24 2.37 2.78 2.54 Sharpe Ratio (3 Year) 2.30 2.84 - 0.740 0.924 1.70 Source: Messari.io Sharpe ratio is the measure of the risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. As we can observe from the above table, the Sharpe ratio of Polygon is higher in 30 days, 90 days, 1 year and 3 years as compared to the peer group’s average. This represents a positive signal for holding MATIC tokens for a longer period.
B. On-Chain Analysis I. Top 5 Token Holders 5.3% 7.8% 17.4% 13.9% 16.5% 0x5...908 Vesting Foundation 0xc...4ab 0x4...88b Contract Contract Source: Etherscan.io The above table gives a breakup of the top holders of the coin. As can be seen, there are three wallets that hold a sizeable portion of the coin’s supply. The total share help by these wallets amounts to 48% of the total token supply. Thus, there is a liquidity risk, since that may have the power to influence the price of the MATIC. The largest holding in the coin stands at 17.477%. II. Unique Senders and Receivers Source: Etherscan On 2nd June 2021, the total number of Unique Receivers on the platform stood at 6846 and the total Unique Senders stood at 5299. This is an indication that the popularity of Polygon is reaching mainstream users of DeFi. The chart above shows a gradual and continuous rise in the number of unique senders and receivers of the MATIC token.
III. Value of Transactions on Polygon Source: Etherscan The value of transactions for Polygon has been on a similar average since the start of 2021, with some highs placed unevenly. However, since mid-May an average growth in the value of transactions can be indicating an increasing demand for the token and presents a good signal for investors to invest in it. As of 2nd June 2021, the total value of transactions stood at 198Mn MATIC. IV. Polygon Market Volume 31% 39% 7% 7% 16% Binance Coinbase OKEx Others Digifinance Source: Etherscan.io Exchange Around 39% of Polygon related transactions are done via Binance, 16% through Digifinance, 7% via Coinbase Exchange, 7% of the same are done via OKEx and the remaining 31% by other exchanges. This suggests that the availability of the token is high.
5.Technical Analysis A. Oscillators and Moving Averages Oscillators Moving Average Name Value Action Name Value Action Relative Strength Index (14) 76.41485 Neutral Exponential Moving Average (10) 1.14498 Buy Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) 57.52570 Neutral Simple Moving Average (10) 0.97953 Buy Commodity Channel Index (20) 177.71240 Sell Exponential Moving Average(20) 0.77637 Buy Average Directional Index (14) 71.85257 Neutral Simple Moving Average (20) 0.58738 Buy Volume Weighted Moving Momentum (10) 1.51896 Buy Average (20) 0.68243 Buy MACD Level (12, 26) 0.39418 Buy Hull Moving Average (9) 1.91110 Sell Williams Percent Range (14) −33.16489 Neutral Source: Tradingview 2 9 13 Sell Neutral Buy Source: Tradingview The above weekly chart of the Oscillators and Moving averages are indicating 13 buy signals, 9 neutral signals, and 2 sell signals. So, this represents a strong buy signal.
B. MACD and RSI The above chart represents that as per MACD if the green line cuts the red line from below, prices are expected to rise. If the green line is above the red line, it indicates a buy signal. From the above graph we see that the green line cuts the red line from above and hence it is probable that price for the MATIC token falls briefly. RSI dictates that values of 70 or above, suggest a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective price pullback. However, RSI for Polygon is near 56.16 which is a bullish sign, showing scope for an upside. This represents a buy signal. C. Support Levels Using Daily Support Chart If an all-time high is broken on the upside, we will see new price discovery; then the previous all-time high becomes new support. If the previous all-time high is broken on the downside, we can expect some correction. The support is visible at $1.73.
D. Fibonacci Analysis The above chart shows that in the start of April, we had seen retracement of 52% approx. In the third wave of Fibonacci technical analysis, if the all-time high is broken on the upside, we will see a new price discovery to $3.209 at the first level in short term; it is also probable to see a price of $4.258 in the mid-term. If the previous all-time high is broken on the downside, a short-term correction may be probable, and we can take advantage by buying MATIC token.
6.Quantitative Analysis We take historical data for Polygon which includes the price – open, low, high, volume, and daily percentage change in the price. The data spans from 3rd June 2020 to 3rd June 2021. After running an Augmented Dickey-Fuller test on the dataset, we find the resulting Dickey- Fuller value to be -1.141 and the related p-value to be 0.9151. As the p-value is significantly higher than 0.05, we find that the data is nonstationary. To construct a model and to forecast, we perform three key functions on the dataset, i.e. we take a first difference, we apply a Box-Cox transformation on the updated dataset, and use the auto.Arima() function in R to find the best ARIMA model with drift for our data. The best ARIMA model for our dataset is (2,2,2). The Ljung-Box test shows that the Q* is 17.49 and the p-value is 0.007643. Since the p-value is higher than the threshold, we proceed to forecast. Further analysis suggests that prices tend to be highest on Tuesday and lowest on the weekend. It also suggests that prices for Polygon tend to be bullish in the second quarter of the year.
Our model predicts that over the next 100 days after June 3rd , Polygon can trade within the range of $1.69 to $3.29. 7. Roadmap Polygon as well as its competitors, are working to be the first interoperability solution to go fully live. As of 2nd June 2021, Polkadot is considered the biggest competitor for Polygon and has yet to launch public parachains. Polygon’s proof-of-stake chain and Plasma scaling solution are live; however, the launch of ZK-rollups and optimistic rollups are awaited on the network. These are the main features that the team at Polygon is working on. Currently, Plasma is the only scaling solution available on Polygon. Given that Polygon was only announced in February 2021, there is not yet a roadmap detailing how its development will move ahead or which features will be prioritized. However, the team behind Polygon has been busy forging partnerships with the likes of Mogul Productions, Umbria, Atari, and OpenPredict—which intends to launch its first speculation markets product on Polygon. 8. Conclusion MATIC has been one of the most promising cryptocurrencies this year so far. Since the start of 2021, the price of Polygon’s cryptocurrency has ballooned from $0.01 on 1st January 2021 to the all-time high of $2.68 on 11th March. An increase of almost 26.70% serves as a positive argument to the bullish Polygon (MATIC) crypto price prediction. Our detailed analysis and forecast also predicts a strong growth for Polygon.
Disclaimer: This Analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. The data is publicly available, including information developed in-house. All information above is provided in good faith, however, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied regarding the accuracy, validity, reliability, completeness of any information. Therefore, conduct self-due diligence before investing, trusting the information provided. We have included statements/opinions/recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as ‘’will’’, ‘’expect’’, ‘’should’’, and similar expressions or variations of such expressions that are forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations concerning, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions globally. All investments are subject to market risk. We shall not be liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, and exemplary, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Admantium or its team may be holding a position in the token.
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