Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference - September 2021 - cloudfront.net
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Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding expected results, future commodity prices, future production targets, completion of natural gas or natural gas liquids transportation projects, future earnings, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, continued utilization of existing infrastructure, gas marketability, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, acreage quality, access to multiple gas markets, expected drilling and development plans (including the number, type, lateral length and location of wells to be drilled, the number and type of drilling rigs and the number of wells per pad), projected well costs and cost savings initiatives, future financial position, future technical improvements, future marketing and asset monetization opportunities, the amount and timing of any contingent payments, the participation level of our drilling partner and the financial and operational results to be achieved as a result of the drilling partnership, estimated Free Cash Flow and the key assumptions underlying its projection and AR’s environmental goals are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR’s control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of world health events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, cybersecurity risks and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020. Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation also includes (i) Free Cash Flow, (ii) Adjusted EBITDAX, (iii) Net Debt and (iv) leverage which are a financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Please see “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” for definitions of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures. Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as “AR” in the presentation and Antero Midstream Corporation is denoted as “AM”, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols. • Antero Resources | May 2019 Presentation 2
Antero Family at a Glance 50/50 JV Exploration & Gathering & Natural Gas C3+ NGL Production Compression Processing Fractionation Water Delivery & Blending 3
Antero Resources Snapshot Denver, CO Antero Resources Acreage Map HEADQUARTERS Antero Marcellus Rig Industry Marcellus Rig $7.7 B Industry Utica Rig Antero Acreage ENTERPRISE VALUE (1) SW Marcellus Core Ohio Utica Core 4th Largest U.S. GAS PRODUCER (2) 2nd Largest U.S. NGL PRODUCER (2) Own 38% OF CORE LIQUIDS-RICH UNDRILLED LOCATIONS IN APPALACHIA(3) ~950 ADDITIONAL DRY GAS LOCATIONS IN DRILLING INVENTORY (3) Core Liquids-Rich Appalachian $750 MM+ Undrilled Locations(3) Forecast Free Cash Flow in 2021 (4) ) 29% Midstream AR Peers ~38% ~62% AM VALUE HELD BY AR $1.4 B Note: Hedge position as of 6/30/21. Rigs on map as of 8/31/21, per Rig data. AM value based on 9/1/21 share price. 1) Market data as of 9/1/2021. 2) Natural gas and NGL rankings based on 2Q21 reported production. 3) 4) AR drilling inventory as of 12/31/2020. Industry location count based on Antero technical analysis of undeveloped acreage in the core of the Marcellus and Ohio Utica Shales. Free Cash Flow is a Non-GAAP metric. Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 4
Antero Strategy Evolution Antero’s business strategy has evolved to match the U.S. shale industry life cycle AR Net Production (Right Axis) & Capital Investment (Left Axis) ($MMs) (1) (MMcfe/d) We are $3,500 Production (MMcfe/d) Capital Spend here 4,000 $3,000 3,500 $2,500 3,000 2,500 $2,000 2,000 $1,500 1,500 $1,000 1,000 $500 500 $0 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E Shale 1.0 Shale 2.0 Shale 3.0 • Acquire acreage • Grow production • Maintain production • Support infrastructure • Aggressively hedge • Generate Free Cash Flow through long-term • Consolidate acreage • Reduce debt & commitments commitments • Innovate through drilling and • Delineate resource • Sustain low leverage completion techniques • Maintain commodity • Access low cost capital exposure • Optimize FT • Return capital • Prioritize ESG 1) Represents drilling and completion + leasehold capital expenditures. 5
Positioned for Success in Shale 3.0 World Antero is well positioned with a strong balance sheet and differentiated operating leverage to higher commodity prices Peer-leading 6 ESG Performance Sustainable 5 Development and Free Cash Flow Supportive 4 Commodity Fundamentals Optimal 3 Takeaway Capacity Deep Liquids-Rich 2 Inventory Strong 1 Balance Sheet 6
1 Peer Leading Debt & Leverage Reduction Sustainable long-term leverage reduction is achieved only through absolute debt reduction, not just EBITDA expansion in a commodity price upswing Year-over-Year Change in Total Debt (1) $1,000 $876 Absolute $581 $500 Debt $0 ($500) ($274) ($188) ($1,000) EBITDA ($1,103) ($1,500) AR CNX RRC SWN EQT Y-O-Y LTM EBITDAX Change ($MM) (2) Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX (6/30/2021) $500 5.0x $427 $400 3.9x $332 4.0x $300 3.0x 3.0x 2.6x 2.4x $200 $86 2.0x 1.7x $100 $40 $0 1.0x ($19) ($100) 0.0x AR SWN RRC EQT CNX AR CNX SWN EQT RRC Source: Company public filings and press releases. Note: Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 1) 2) As of 6/30/2021. Represents year-over-year change in LTM EBITDAX from 2Q 2020 to 2Q 2021. 7
1 Strong and Sustainable Balance Sheet AR has no near-term senior note maturities and has reset debt levels to insulate leverage against a downside commodity price scenario Antero Resources Debt Term Structure (Pro Forma 6/30/2021) (1) AR Senior Notes $2,000 AR Convertible Notes $1,800 AR Credit Facility $1,600 No near-term senior note maturities $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $700 $590 $600 $600 $407 $400 (1) $82 $185 (1) $200 $325 5.00% 8.375% 7.625% 5.375% $0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $2.0 Billion Absolute Debt Target is Designed to Limit Leverage in the Event of a Commodity Cycle Downturn 8 Note: Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. (1) Pro forma for the redemption of $175 MM of the 2026 Senior Notes at $108.375, plus accrued and unpaid interests.
2 Peer Leading Premium Core Drilling Inventory Antero’s technical and management teams have performed an extensive update on acreage positions, undrilled locations, well performance and EURs across the basin – Led to division of the SW Marcellus and Ohio Utica into Premium Core and Tier 2 Core acres Premium Core Marcellus Inventory: SW Appalachia Core • ~5,200 undeveloped locations • AR holds ~1,865 locations, or 36% Utica Core Premium Core Utica Inventory: • ~1,100 undeveloped locations • AR holds ~210 locations, or 19% Premium Liquids-Rich Core Undrilled Locations Peers 62% AR 38% Tier 2 Core Marcellus Inventory: • ~1,600 undeveloped locations SW Marcellus • AR holds ~150 locations, or 9% Core Antero Leasehold & Minerals Drilled Wells Notes: AR drilling inventory as of 12/31/2020. Industry location count based on Antero technical analysis of undeveloped acreage in the core of the Marcellus and Ohio Utica Shales. 9
3 Right-Sizing Firm Takeaway Commitments AR’s under-utilized firm transportation commitments are expected to decline by over 1.0 Bcf/d by year-end 2025, resulting in a >$100+ MM reduction in annualized net marketing expense and an optimized takeaway position to premium demand markets Firm Transportation (Year-End) BBtu/d AR Gross Residue Gas Forecast - Drilling Partnership 200 MMcf/d, or $30 MM annualized, 4,500 of unutilized Midwest capacity 4,147 Appalachia rolling off October 2021 4,000 Regional FT 3,757 3,652 3,500 3,377 3,330 3,130 3,000 TCO 2,500 Midwest 2,000 Premium 1,500 FT 1,000 U.S. Gulf Coast 500 Atlantic Seaboard - 12/31/19 12/31/20 12/31/21 12/31/22 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 Note: Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 10
3 Diversity of Product & Destination Antero’s liquids-rich strategy and diversified firm transportation portfolio allows it to capture commodity price upside both domestically and internationally Leader in Liquids Production Leader in Premium Natural Gas and Realized Pricing Takeaway and Realized Pricing (2) Liquids Production (MBbl/d) (1) Percent Sold Out of Basin 200 120% 171 AR leaves ~150 MBbl/d 100% of ethane in the gas 100% stream 83% 150 80% 107 104 100 60% 49% 49% 44% 47 40% 50 16 20% - 0% AR RRC SWN EQT CNX AR RRC CNX EQT SWN C2+ NGL Price as % of WTI (1) Price Differential to NYMEX (3) 60% $0.40 $0.28 50% 50% 45% 44% $0.20 42% 40% 37% $0.00 30% ($0.20) 20% ($0.21) ($0.25) ($0.26) ($0.40) 10% ($0.60) 0% ($0.80) ($0.74) AR CNX RRC EQT SWN AR CNX RRC EQT SWN Source: Company presentation and filings. 1) Represents 1H21 results. Liquids production includes C2+ NGLs and oil. 2) 3) Based on company disclosure of firm transportation commitments. Represents 1H21 results. AR price differential excludes $0.38/Mcf positive impact from 1Q21 WGL settlement. 11
3 FT Protects Basis and Provides Flow Assurance AR’s firm transportation portfolio provides price stability, production flow assurance, and premium pricing vs. Appalachia-dependent producers Antero Basis vs. Appalachia Basis ($/Mcf) (1) (2) Appalachia Differentials Antero Realized Differential Appalchian Average Basis Antero Average Basis AR’s 2Q21 realized price was an $0.18/Mcf $2.00 Since the beginning of 2018, AR had premium to NYMEX vs. an average Appalachian discount of ($0.72)/Mcf Antero Basis access to its entire FT portfolio and has realized an average $0.11/Mcf $1.50 premium to NYMEX over that time • Low volatility, high reliability $1.00 • Premium to NYMEX AR • “Insurance policy” for +$0.11 2Q21: consistent production $0.50 +$0.18 flow • Ability to hedge NYMEX $0.00 Henry Hub index Appalachia ($0.50) 2Q21: ($0.82) ($0.72) Appalachia Basis ($1.00) • High volatility, low reliability ($1.50) • Significant discount to NYMEX ($2.00) • Frequent shut-ins • Less liquid hedge markets Note: Pricing reflects pre-hedge pricing. 1) 2) Reflects discount to NYMEX for Appalachia in-basin pricing at Dominion South & TETCO M2 indices. Represents simple average discount to NYMEX for Antero firm transportation capacity. Includes BTU adjustment for 1100 BTU gas. 12
4 Propane Market Fundamentals A repeat of the same weekly withdrawals as last winter would result in the U.S. ending withdrawal season with only about 12 million barrels in storage, significantly below 5-year minimum storage level U.S. Propane Inventories (MMBbls) 120 2021 injection season projected to end at ~75 100 MMBbls per industry estimates 80 Million Barrels 2020 60 Repeating winter 2021E 2020-2021 weekly 40 2021 20 2022E ...Results in ending withdrawal season at only ~12 MMBbls, 0 or just 4 to 6 days of supply Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr Range 2020 5-Yr Avg 2016-2020 2021 Actual 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast Source: EnVantage Inc. and Energy Information Administration (EIA) as of 9/3/21. 13
5 Natural Gas Fundamentals Are Strong U.S. production growth has meaningfully slowed and exports have increased dramatically compared to 2018 U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production – Lower 48 (Bcf/d) +0.1 Bcf/d per month 100.0 +0.5 Bcf/d per month Jan-20: 94.3 Jan-21: Aug-21: 95.0 +1 Bcf/d per month Jan-19: 92.9 91.6 90.0 87.9 +0.6 Bcf/d per month 85.0 Jan-18: 77.1 80.0 75.0 Jan-17: 69.6 70.0 65.0 60.0 U.S. LNG Exports (Bcf/d) Mexico Exports (Bcf/d) 12.0 7.0 10.6 5.9 10.0 6.0 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.6 8.0 7.3 4.2 5.7 4.0 6.0 3.0 4.0 3.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.0 - - 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E Source: Point Logic for U.S. dry natural gas production and Platts for LNG exports and Mexico exports. 14
5 Strategy Transition For Commodity Price Exposure AR’s significant scale, strong balance sheet, commodity product diversity and development program flexibility allows AR to capture commodity price upside AR Hedges as a % of Guided Production at January 1 of Each Year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Prudent Hedging Strategy Prudent Exposure Strategy • Single commodity product (dry gas only) • Diversity of product (NGLs & Oil) • Growth mode to achieve scale • Maintenance capital mode to harvest free • Unutilized FT and less flexible capital cash flow budget • Utilized FT and flexible capital budget to • Northeast basis exposure & shut-in risk commodity prices • Near-term maturities • NYMEX exposure & flow assurance • Contango futures prices • Pushed out maturities 4+ years • Backwardated futures prices Note: Percent of production hedged assumes 2021 production guidance and maintenance mode, or flat production thereafter. • Bullish supply / demand fundamentals 15
5 Peer Hedging Comparison Antero has not added any natural gas hedges in ~18 months and is unhedged on its 4Q21 and going forward liquids production % Hedged 2022 Total Production and Natural Gas Production (1) % Total Production Hedged % Natural Gas Production Hedged 100% 95% 89% 90% 87% 80% Peer average hedged natural 69% gas production: 74% 70% 72% Peer average hedged total 60% production: 59% 50% 50% 43% 44% 40% 34% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% AR RRC SWN EQT CNX 16 1) Represents percent of hedged 2022 total production and natural gas production. 2022 production based on consensus production as of 8/3/2021. Hedge positions as of 6/30/2021 for peers based on company filings and 9/7/2021 for AR.
5 Significant Commodity Price Leverage As one of the largest natural gas and NGL producers in the U.S., Antero has significant cash flow upside in a rising commodity price environment Top 5 U.S. Natural Gas Producers (MMcf/d) Top 5 U.S. NGL Producers (MBbls/d) 5,000 250 4,333 4th largest U.S. Natural 4,500 2nd largest NGL Gas producer 200 4,000 200 producer 3,500 163 2,804 147 3,000 150 48 139 MMcf/d 2,407 129 2,500 2,287 2,205 Ethane 2,000 100 115 1,500 C3+ 1,000 50 NGLs 500 - - EQT XOM SWN AR COG OXY AR PXD EOG DVN AR Leverage to Natural Gas Prices ($MM) (1) AR Leverage to C3+ NGL Prices ($MM) (2) $450 $417 $450 $419 Every $0.10 per Every $2 per Bbl move $400 $400 MMBtu move in natural in C3+ NGL prices results $335 $350 $334 $350 gas prices results in an in a $84 MM unhedged $300 $83 MM unhedged $300 annual revenue impact (2) $250 $251 $250 annual revenue impact (1) $250 $200 $167 $200 $167 $150 $150 $100 $83 $100 $84 $50 $50 $0 $0 +$0.10 / +$0.20 / +$0.30 / +$0.40 / +$0.50 / +$2.00 / +$4.00 / +$6.00 / +$8.00 / +$10.00 / MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu Bbl Bbl Bbl Bbl Bbl Note: Natural gas and NGL producer rankings reflect company 2Q21 reports and public filings. 1) Assumes 2Q 2021 natural gas production of 2.3 Bcf/d. 2.2 Bcf/d of AR natural gas volumes are hedged through 2021 at a weighted average of $2.77/MMBtu and 1.2 Bcf/d hedged in 2022 at a weighted average 17 price of $2.50/MMBtu. 2) Assumes 2Q 2021 C3+ NGL production of 115 MBbl/d.
5 Enhanced Free Cash Flow Profile Antero expects to generate over $3.5 B of Free Cash Flow through 2025 Free Cash Flow (Before Changes in Working Capital) ($MM) 2021E – 2025E Free Cash Flow: Free Cash Flow Outspend 07/22/2021 Strip Pricing (1) $4,000 $3,500+ $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 5-Year Avg. Strip Through YE 2025 $1,000 $750+ NYMEX: $3.03/MMBtu WTI: $61/Bbl $500 C3+ NGLs: $37/Bbl $0 ($500) ($1,000) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2021E - 2025E Cumulative FCF (5-year strip) Note: Free Cash Flow, which is shown before changes in working capital, is a Non-GAAP metric. Excludes $51 MM contingent payment expected to be received in 2Q 2021 contingent on volume thresholds. Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 18 1) Assumes strip pricing as of 7/22/2021. 2021 strip pricing reflects NYMEX natural gas average price of $3.36/MMBtu, WTI oil price of $66/Bbl and Mont Belvieu C3+ NGL pricing of ~$46/Bbl . 2022 – 2025 strip pricing reflects NYMEX natural gas average price of $2.94/MMBtu, WTI oil price of $60/Bbl and Mont Belvieu C3+ NGL pricing of ~$36/Bbl.
6 ESG Momentum Continues Antero’s peer-leading ESG ranking reflects the internal efforts to prioritize ESG performance and disclosures 2025 Goals Progress World Bank Zero Routine Flaring Initiative (1): COMMITMENT TO NO ROUTINE FLARING IN 2021 Project Canary (July 2021): ANNOUNCED PILOT TO PURSUE RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GAS CERTIFICATION 2020 ESG Report (October 2021): MSCI UPGRADE PUBLISH DATE IS EXPECTED (August 2021): TO DRIVE FURTHER RATINGS UPSIDE BBB ESG RATING 1) Antero has not flared produced natural gas since the infancy of the Marcellus and Utica shale projects in West Virginia and Ohio. 19
The Antero Investment Opportunity Antero is positioned to deliver sustainable Free Cash Flow, with a peer-leading leverage profile Strong • Leverage at 1.7x and targeting below 1.5x at YE 2021 (1) Balance • Absolute debt reduction of $800 MM in 2020 and over $900 MM Sheet expected in 2021 Scale and • 2nd Largest NGL Producer in the U.S. Operating • 4th Largest Natural Gas Producer in the U.S. Leverage • Differentiated operating leverage to higher commodity prices Sustainable • $750 MM+ of forecast Free Cash Flow in 2021 (2) • $3.5 B+ of forecast Free Cash Flow through 2025 (2) Business • Over 2,000 premium undeveloped premium core locations Model • ~$1.48/MMBtu natural gas breakeven price, unhedged (3) • One of the industry’s lowest GHG emission intensity metrics • No routine flaring – very low methane leak loss rate (0.046%) Leading • 83% of produced water generated was reused/recycled in 2020 ESG Metrics • Partner with Project Canary for Responsibly Sourced Gas certification • Goal to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2025 1) Leverage is a non-GAAP metric, which represents approximate debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDAX level as of 6/30/2021 2) Free Cash Flow, which is shown before changes in working capital, is a non-GAAP metric. Excludes $51 MM contingent payment received in 2Q 2021 relating to the ORRI transaction. Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 3) Represents AR internal 2021-2022 weighted average breakeven price and is defined as full cycle pre-tax ROR of 15%. Assume WTI price of $70.89Bbl and $65.92/Bbl in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Assumes C3+ NGL price of $50.22/Bbl and $41.04/Bbl in 2021 and 2022, respectively. 20
Appendix
Antero Guidance and Long-Term Target Assumptions Long-term Outlook Assumptions (Consistent in 2021 2021-2025 both Base Plan and Drilling Partnership plans) NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Price ($/MMBtu) (1) $3.36 $2.94 NYMEX WTI Oil Price ($/Bbl) (1) $66.61 $59.53 AR Weighted C3+ NGL Price ($/Bbl) (1) $46.33 $35.75 Marcellus Well Costs ($MM / 1,000’ assuming 12,000 ft lateral) $660 / 1,000’ $635 / 1,000’ AR ownership in AM (shares) and annual AM dividend per share (2) 139 MM shares ($0.90/share annual dividend) Base Plan (Maintenance Capital) Assumptions: 2021 2021-2025 Annual Net Production (MMcfe/d) 3,300 – 3,400 Wells Drilled 65 - 70 250 (3) Wells Completed 60 - 65 255 (3) Cash Production & Net Marketing Expense ($/Mcfe) (4) $2.30 - $2.35 $2.18 - $2.23 (5) G&A Expense (before equity-based compensation) ($/Mcfe) $0.08 - $0.10 Drilling Partnership Assumptions: 2021 2021-2025 Annual Production Net to AR (MMcfe/d) 3,300 – 3,400 Wells Drilled (Gross) 80 - 85 310 (3) Wells Completed (Gross) 65 - 70 315 (3) Cash Production & Net Marketing Expense ($/Mcfe)(3) $2.29 - $2.36 $2.10 – $2.15 (5) G&A Expense (before equity-based compensation) ($/Mcfe) $0.08 - $0.10 1) Represents Mont Belvieu strip pricing as of 7/22/2021 assuming C3+ NGL component barrel consists of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+). 2) AM dividend determined quarterly by the Board of Directors of Antero Midstream. 3) Represents well counts through 2024 to align with drilling JV term. 4) 5) Includes lease operating expense, gathering, compression, processing, transportation, production & ad valorem taxes and net marketing expense. Excludes cash G&A. Represents average cash production and net marketing expense for 2022 – 2025. 22
Focus on Liquids Rich Drilling Antero currently recovers only 30% of the ethane in its rich gas stream while rejecting 70% of the ethane, sending it to pipeline sales in the natural gas stream Antero NGL Barrel Composition (2021 Guidance) Remaining 70% of ethane Natural Gas 1100 BTU Gas stays in natural gas stream Processing and enhances gas BTU Ethane (C2) ~128,000 Bbl/d of C2 50,000 Bbl/d 165,000 Bbl/d C2+ NGLs 1250 BTU Rich Gas AR recovers ~30% of ethane ~115,000 Bbl/d C3+ NGLs in its rich gas stream Ethane ~50,000 Bbl/d 30% of Barrel Propane (C3) 56% Liquids Rich Production C3+ NGLs ~115,000 Bbl/d 70% of Barrel Normal Butane (C4) 17% IsoButane (iC4) 10% Pentanes (C5+) 17% AR’s C2+ NGL Barrel Composition AR’s C3+ NGL Barrel Composition 23 Note: Based on Antero 2021 production guidance. Antero C3+ NGL component barrel consists of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+).
Balance Capex with Cash Flow – Low Maintenance Capital Antero Average Development Well 3,600 Net Production Rate: 3.4 Bcfe/d Avg. Lateral Length per Well 13,000’ 3,400 Bcfe/1,000’ 2.70 3,200 Replacement Volume 198 Bcfe ~16% of 2022 Volume Wellhead Gas BTU 1265 3,000 Well Cost ($660/ft) $8.6 MM 2,800 2,600 Net F&D Cost $0.288 Mcfe 2,400 C2 Recovery (1) 40% 2,200 Well Spacing 830’ 2,000 First Year Recovery Volumes Gross (Bcfe) 6.05 Net (Bcfe) 5.14 Maintenance Capital Calculation Field and Operating Capital • The average AR rich Marcellus well • Roads produces 3.16 Bcfe net in the calendar • Working interest year when brought online mid-year optimization • Assume new wells average ½ year of • Pad construction costs production Production can be held flat with ~63 wells Maintenance Field $556 MM 198 ÷ 3.16 Capital: Maintenance D&C = 63 Capital Maintenance D&C Capital ~$14 MM 63 $8.6 = $542 MM Note: Maintenance capital is net of VPP transaction. Net F&D cost assumes 85% net revenue interest. Net F&D is a non-GAAP financial measure, see the appendix for more information. 1) Reflects increased ethane volume with start up of Shell Cracker in 2022. Ethane sold at a premium to natural gas price. 24 24
Recent Wells Fargo ESG Ranking Antero’s peer leading ESG ranking reflects the Wells Fargo U.S. E&P internal efforts to prioritize ESG performance ESG Scorecard and disclosures Wells Fargo ESG scorecard report highlights: • AR ranked #2 for U.S. E&Ps – #1 for the “E” (50% weighting). Benefiting from zero flaring, low GHG Emissions, water management, and scope 1 reporting. – Zero routine flaring – Peer leading GHG emissions – Industry leading water management – Ambitious 2025 Net Zero Scope 1 goals – 2nd quartile ranking for “S” (20% weighting), we believe there is low hanging fruit for improvement (ie: community engagement policies). Natural gas companies have competitive advantage over oil companies in the ESG landscape Updated ESG data and disclosures aligned with the SASB Standards TCFD recommendations will be published later this year Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC estimates from 3/29 report. 25
Antero Non-GAAP Measures Adjusted EBITDAX: Adjusted EBITDAX as defined by the Company represents income or loss, including noncontrolling interests, before interest expense, interest income, gains or losses from commodity derivatives and marketing derivatives, but including net cash receipts or payments on derivative instruments included in derivative gains or losses other than proceeds from derivative monetizations, income taxes, impairment, depletion, depreciation, amortization, and accretion, exploration expense, equity-based compensation, contract termination and rig stacking costs, simplification transaction fees, and gain or loss on sale of assets. Adjusted EBITDAX also includes distributions received with respect to limited partner interests in Antero Midstream Partners common units prior to the closing of the simplification transaction on March 12, 2019. The GAAP financial measure nearest to Adjusted EBITDAX is net income or loss including noncontrolling interest that will be reported in Antero’s condensed consolidated financial statements. While there are limitations associated with the use of Adjusted EBITDAX described below, management believes that this measure is useful to an investor in evaluating the Company’s financial performance because it: • is widely used by investors in the oil and natural gas industry to measure operating performance without regard to items excluded from the calculation of such term, which may vary substantially from company to company depending upon accounting methods and the book value of assets, capital structure, and the method by which assets were acquired, among other factors; • helps investors to more meaningfully evaluate and compare the results of Antero’s operations from period to period by removing the effect of its capital and legal structure from its consolidated operating structure; and • is used by management for various purposes, including as a measure of Antero’s operating performance, in presentations to the Company’s board of directors, and as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting. Adjusted EBITDAX is also used by the board of directors as a performance measure in determining executive compensation. There are significant limitations to using Adjusted EBITDAX as a measure of performance, including the inability to analyze the effects of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the Company’s net income or loss, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies, and the different methods of calculating Adjusted EBITDAX reported by different companies. In addition, Adjusted EBITDAX provides no information regarding a company’s capital structure, borrowings, interest costs, capital expenditures, and working capital movement or tax position. Net Debt: Net Debt is calculated as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Management uses Net Debt to evaluate its financial position, including its ability to service its debt obligations. Leverage: Leverage is calculated as LTM Adjusted EBITDAX divided by net debt. F&D Cost: Net F&D costs is a non-GAAP metric commonly used in the exploration and production industry by companies, investors and analysts in order to measure a company’s ability of adding and developing reserves at a reasonable cost. Net F&D costs is a statistical indicator that has limitations, including its predictive and comparative value. This reserve metric may not be comparable to similarly titled measurements used by other companies. There are no directly comparable financial measures presented in accordance with GAAP for Net F&D costs, and therefore a reconciliation to GAAP is not practicable. The calculation for Net F&D cost is based on future development costs required for the development of reserves, divided by total reserves. 26
Antero Non-GAAP Measures Free Cash Flow: Free Cash Flow is a measure of financial performance not calculated under GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for cash flow from operating, investing, or financing activities, as an indicator of cash flow, or as a measure of liquidity. The Company defines Free Cash Flow as net cash provided by operating activities, less net cash used in investing activities, which includes drilling and completion capital and leasehold capital, less proceeds from asset sales and less distributions to non-controlling interests in Martica. The Company has not provided projected Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities or a reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to projected Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP. The Company is unable to project Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities for any future period because this metric includes the impact of changes in operating assets and liabilities related to the timing of cash receipts and disbursements that may not relate to the period in which the operating activities occurred. The Company is unable to project these timing differences with any reasonable degree of accuracy without unreasonable efforts. See assumptions slides for more information regarding key assumptions. Free Cash Flow is a useful indicator of the Company’s ability to internally fund its activities and to service or incur additional debt. There are significant limitations to using Free Cash Flow as a measure of performance, including the inability to analyze the effect of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the Company’s net income, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies and the different methods of calculating Free Cash Flow reported by different companies. Free Cash Flow does not represent funds available for discretionary use because those funds may be required for debt service, land acquisitions and lease renewals, other capital expenditures, working capital, income taxes, exploration expenses, and other commitments and obligations. 27
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation LTM Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2021 Reconciliation of net loss to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income loss and comprehensive income loss attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ (1,004,749) Net income and comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling interests 661 Unrealized commodity derivative gains 1,538,067 Payments for derivative monetizations (4,438) Amortization of deferred revenue, VPP (36,936) Gain on sale of assets (1,909) Interest expense, net 187,665 Gain on early extinguishment of debt 10,039 Loss on convertible note equitizations 50,777 Provision for income tax benefit (324,005) Depletion, depreciation, amortization, and accretion 832,839 Impairment of oil and gas properties 140,565 Exploration expense 6,499 Equity-based compensation expense 21,906 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate (81,338) Dividends from unconsolidated affiliates 159,551 Contract termination and rig stacking 4,154 Transaction expense 3,582 1,502,930 Martica related adjustments (1) (92,294) Adjusted EBITDAX $ 1,410,636 1) Adjustments reflect noncontrolling interests in Martica not otherwise adjusted in amounts above. 28
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2020 2021 2020 2021 Reconciliation of net loss to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net loss and comprehensive loss attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ (463,304) (523,467) (802,114) (538,966) Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests 236 (10,984) 236 (6,589) Unrealized commodity derivative losses 481,927 756,998 127,020 940,076 Payments for derivative monetizations — 4,569 — 4,569 Amortization of deferred revenue, VPP — (11,279) — (22,429) Gain on sale of assets — (2,288) (31) (2,288) Interest expense, net 51,811 49,963 104,913 92,706 Loss (gain) on early extinguishment of debt (39,171) 23,065 (119,732) 66,269 Loss on convertible note equitizations — 11,731 — 50,777 Provision for income tax benefit (142,404) (175,966) (252,389) (178,912) Depletion, depreciation, amortization, and accretion 215,146 188,661 415,927 383,475 Impairment of oil and gas properties 37,350 9,303 126,570 43,365 Impairment of equity method investment — — 610,632 — Exploration expense 231 5,638 441 5,857 Equity-based compensation expense 7,973 4,249 11,302 9,891 Equity in (earnings) loss of unconsolidated affiliate (20,228) (17,477) 107,827 (36,171) Dividends from unconsolidated affiliate 42,755 31,284 85,511 74,040 Contract termination and rig stacking 11,071 844 11,071 935 Transaction expense 6,138 185 6,138 2,476 189,531 345,029 433,322 889,081 Martica related adjustments (1) (3,100) (25,677) (3,100) (50,239) Adjusted EBITDAX $ 186,431 319,352 430,222 838,842 1) Adjustments reflect noncontrolling interests in Martica not otherwise adjusted in amounts above. 29
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Working capital adjustments in 2021 include $60.5 million in changes in current assets and liabilities and $35.9 million in accounts payable and accrued liabilities for additions to property and equipment. See the cash flow statement in this release for details. Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2020 2021 2020 2021 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 115,963 308,541 $ 316,640 872,272 Less: Net cash used in investing activities (262,927) (179,903) (574,608) (302,878) Less: Proceeds from asset sales — — — (2,351) Less: Distributions to non-controlling interests in Martica — (21,329) — (46,028) Free Cash Flow $ (146,964) 107,309 $ (257,968) 521,015 Changes in Working Capital (1) 78,382 (28,077) 59,979 (124,854) Free Cash Flow before Changes in Working Capital $ (68,582) 79,232 $ (197,989) 396,161 1) Working capital adjustments in 2021 include $21.4 million in changes in current assets and liabilities and $6.7 million in accounts payable and accrued liabilities for additions to property and equipment. See the cash flow statement in this release for details. 30
Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation December 31, June 30, 2020 2021 AR bank credit facility $ 1,017,000 — 5.125% AR senior notes due 2022 660,516 — 5.625% AR senior notes due 2023 574,182 — 5.000% AR senior notes due 2025 590,000 590,000 8.375% AR senior notes due 2026 — 500,000 7.625% AR senior notes due 2029 — 700,000 5.375% AR senior notes due 2030 — 600,000 4.250% AR convertible senior notes due 2026 287,500 81,570 Net unamortized premium (111,886) (29,782) Net unamortized debt issuance costs (15,719) (26,625) Consolidated total debt $ 3,001,593 2,415,163 Less: AR cash and cash equivalents — (4,541) Net Debt $ 3,001,593 2,410,622 31
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