Poland social briefing: Poland 2021 Outlook on social issues - China-CEE Institute

ISSN: 2560-1601

                                                                                      Vol. 36, No. 3 (PL)

                                                                                           January 2021

                                           Poland social briefing:
                              Poland 2021 Outlook on social issues
                                         Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska

                                                               1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

                                                               +36 1 5858 690
Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft.
                                                               office@china-cee.eu
Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin
Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping                          china-cee.eu

2017/01

Poland 2021 Outlook on social issues

      The coming months will bring several important events related to the social situation,
mostly due to the coronavirus pandemic. Certainly, one should expect the continuation of
layoffs in the sectors most affected by the pandemic, i.e. in: gastronomy and hotel industry,
fitness industry, tourism and entertainment. At the same time, employment in production
companies, logistics and transport may remain at the same level as in the beginning of 2020,
or it can even increase by 4-5% per year. The issue of migration of foreign workers to Poland
will also be significant, as it will contribute to the change of the demographic and migration
landscape. Yet, how large the group of migrants is may be shown on the basis of the census that
will take place in the spring. Its results will certainly bring many interesting conclusions about
the overall condition of Polish society. Hence, what will social affairs in Poland look like in
2021?

      Situation on the labour market

      The year 2020 was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely affected many
aspects of life - including the social one. Forecasts made in the spring of last year were quite
pessimistic in terms of the labour market and possible economic collapse. Fortunately, the
forecasts of a large increase in unemployment in the wake of the epidemic have not come true.
The year 2020 ended with the registered unemployment rate at the level of 6.1%. Meanwhile,
2021 is likely to see an increase in unemployment, particularly in the first quarter of the year,
to around 7.3 - 7.5%, according to government forecasts. But the average for the whole year is
to be only slightly higher than last year – app. 6.3 - 6.7%.

      Factors contributing to increasing the number of unemployed people will certainly
include:

             • unpredictability of the course of the pandemic,
             • persistence of a sense of uncertainty among entrepreneurs,
             • unexpected government decisions, usually made with only limited dialogue with
        the entrepreneurs,
             • restricted freedom of economic activity,
             • low level of state and private investment.

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The above factors will be overlapped by the diminishing state aid, due to budgetary
limitations. After the general support programs that came into force in Poland in spring 2020,
subsequent versions of the so-called “Anti-crisis shields” were limited to specific industries,
leaving some enterprises linked by interdependencies, with closed sectors of the economy
without any help. If the Polish government does not revise the economic support programs
under the “Anti-crisis shields” and does not take into account all sectors of the economy, it will
be difficult to talk about the possibility of Polish entrepreneurs rebounding the current level of
earnings and investment opportunities. The hotel, tourist, catering and fitness industries are
already planning a departure from restrictive regulations, complaining that the state aid is
insufficient and that it is granted with a delay of several months. If a mass strike and sabotage
of lockdown regulations does occur, Polish society may face a serious health and social crisis
in 2021.

      It should also be remembered that public support provided to enterprises was primarily
aimed at maintaining jobs. Therefore, 2021 will be a verification to what extent companies are
able to keep up the level of employment at the previous stage. The labour market is still
protected against a large increase in unemployment by the continued good export results and
the shortage of experienced workers, resulting from the aging of the society or migration
outflows.

      Changing demography of Poland

      In fact, in recent years Poland has faced groundbreaking changes in the area of migration
from and to the country. These changes will play an increasing role in social and economic
development this year as well.

      The two decades of the 21st century prove that migration flows are an important part of
the transformations taking place in Poland. Since joining the European Union in 2004, Poland
has experienced an outflow of almost 1.5 million (mostly young) people who left in search of
professional development opportunities in Western European countries. It is 9% of all
professionally active people.

      On the other hand, the 2014 war in Ukraine and the consequential economic crisis resulted
in increased interest in working in Poland on the part of Ukrainian citizens. It is estimated that
the number of Ukrainian immigrants residing in Poland improved from about 0.2 million in
2014 to 1.7-2 million in 2020. The importance of the influx of economic immigrants for the

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Polish economy is evidenced by studies showing that in 2013-2019, the work of immigrants
added an average of 0.5% to the growth of Polish GDP. It is thanks to these inflows that the
Polish labour market does not yet feel the negative impact of demographic changes on the
labour supply, although they are becoming more and more intense.

      It is worth realizing that the current demographic transformation is unique in the recent
history of the country - first of all, Poland has never experienced the effects of a fall in fertility
far below the replacement of generations; secondly, from at least the mid-nineteenth century,
Polish lands were characterized by a tendency to a negative migration balance. Meanwhile, the
latest demographic forecasts assume that Poland has become a country with a positive migration
balance for good.

      Of course, one should be aware that perhaps with the depletion of the migration potential
from Ukraine, Poland will not be as easy to attract new immigrants as in recent years. However,
there are many factors increasing the chances of maintaining the advantage of immigration over
emigration in 2021:

              • return of some Polish emigrants due to Brexit,
              • slowdown in economic development of Western European countries,
              • exhaustion of the potential of emigration from Poland (ever older people do not
        risk emigration),
              • declining labour supply forcing employers to look for employees also outside
        Poland.

      Therefore, in the coming months, Poland will undoubtedly face problems analogous to
the dilemmas of most developed economies. The aging of the society will increasingly reduce
the number of potential employees, and at the same time increase the potential of the influx of
economic immigrants.

      National census 2021

      Much of the demographic data is now mere assumptions. However, many remarkable
statistics on the social situation in Poland will be available in just a few months, thanks to the
National Population and Housing Census. The census will be carried out from April 1 to June
30, 2021. Currently, organizational and preparatory works are still in progress, but it is already
known that the census will be fully implemented using the interactive census form available on
the website of the Central Statistical Office. The census obligation will cover:

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• natural persons permanently residing or temporarily staying in apartments in
        Poland,
              • natural persons who do not have a place of residence (homeless),
              • buildings and other inhabited rooms that are apartments in Poland,
              • collective accommodation facilities and other inhabited non-residential
        premises.

      As part of the national population and housing census, data will be collected on the
following issues:

              1.       demographic characteristics of people,
              2.       economic activity of people,
              3.       level of education,
              4.       disabilities,
              5.       internal and external migrations,
              6.       ethnic and cultural characteristics of the inhabitants,
              7.       the degree of kinship within households,
              8.       condition and characteristics of the housing stock (apartments and
        buildings).

      The planned census of population and housing will be a compulsory survey, carried out
on the basis of the census acts. At the same time, it will be the largest statistical activity that is
undertaken in Poland in recent years (the last census was organised in 2011), and its main goal
will be to conduct a comprehensive social review, to find challenges and opportunities that are
currently facing Polish demography and social policy.

      Conclusions

      Undoubtedly, 2021 will be full of changes on the labour market. We can expect
continuation of layoffs in sectors most affected by the pandemic, both due to administrative
restrictions and a change in consumer behaviour. At the same time, employment in production
companies, logistics and transport may remain at the level from the beginning of 2020 or even
increase by 4-5% per year. A smooth flow of workers between services and production is not
always possible, so it will be one of the factors of increasing unemployment, which will remain
at an average of 6.3 - 6.7%.

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At the same time, the issue of the aging of population, a low birth rate and the increasing
inflow of workers from abroad, mainly from Ukraine, will remain a challenge. Taking into
account that there are approximately 16.5 million professionally active Poles, Ukrainians
constitute at least 12% of the additional workforce in the country. However, how big the overall
group if migrant workers is, will become clear only after caring out the national census, which
will allow to assess the general condition of Polish society – including the issues of education,
disability or economic activity of Poles. The census will be a key source of social data and an
important predictor of future events.

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