Plant-based: Assessing consumer demand for alternative proteins - Presentation Information - Food Matters Live
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Presentation Information Plant-based: Assessing consumer demand for alternative proteins Susie Stannard, AHDB
Plant-based NPD is proliferating in retail
*Co-Op’s Meat Free range was announced in January 2019
2
Food service outlets are also responding
26% 55% 562% 46%
Vegetarian 7% share Vegan Dairy-free Gluten-free
of menu
Menu examples
3
Data source: MCA Menu Tracker. 48 leading chain restaurants, managed pubs/bars and fast
food brands analysed. Spring/Summer menus 2018 vs 2019
Plant-based in the UK in context
*Total Meat, fish and
*Total Dairy UK
Poultry UK
£11.0 billion
£11.9 billion
+0.1%
+0.2%
1.77bn
Plant-
based
Meat meal +14 Dairy
+8 +7
alternatives % alternatives
% %
Source: *Kantar Worldpanel 52 we Aug 2018. Plant-based includes dairy alternatives (£379.8 mn and meat alternatives including plant-based ready meals, pies and
pizzas worth £1.4bn)
But what has driven this growth?
Healthy eating, environment and meat reduction are hot
topics in the media
LINKQ
Social media has been a key driver of growth
But despite high media attention the vegan diet is still adopted
by a minority
Claimed 2% 7% 8%
Actual 0.6% Here we define flexitarian as
cutting back for health reasons
Source: AHDB/YouGov Consumer Tracker & Kantar Worldpanel
13% looking to reduce red meat
15% say they are
Nov ‘15 8% eating less dairy
Eat too much red meat and
will try to eat less 5% 13%
Eat about the right amount
25% Should be consumed in
moderation:
Don’t eat enough red meat
and will try to eat more Apr/May
2019
Am not too concerned
58% sausage/bacon
about the amount of red
meat I eat
5% 46% beef
51% 36% lamb
Don’t know
40% pork
Nov ‘15 55% 19% chicken
Base: All respondents in Meat 3 section (Apr/May-19: 1024)
9 YGq15: What do you think is a healthy number of times to eat red meat and meat products each week?
YGq16: Thinking about the amount of fresh red meat and meat products you currently eat, which of the following statements is most accurate?
The plant-based trend is NOT about vegans
14%
of plant based meals
are eaten by vegans
11%
of meat free meals are
eaten by vegetarians
Kantar Worldpanel / Total Foods / 52 w/e February 2019 10Health, the environment and animal welfare are the
claimed drivers of meat reduction
Top reasons for eating less red meat: (May-2019)
48% 45+
I've changed my diet as I vs. 28%
believe it is healthier to eat 46% 16-24s
less red meat
I want to reduce my impact 38% 16-
31% 24s vs
on the environment
23% 45+
I want to reduce my carbon
24%
footprint
Red meat is too expensive 19%
I'm concerned about animal
20%
welfare
Base: All respondents in Meat 1 section who ate less meat than previously (May-19: 266)
11 EQ8_rb2: Which, if any, of the following are reasons why your consumption of red meat has changed over the last month?Health now
accounts for a
third of all our food
choices….
32%
Servings chosen
for health
£20.3bn
Health has grown
by 10% since
2015
Kantar Worldpanel / Total Foods / 52 w/e February 2019Impact on animal proteins?
Long term losses to white meat
Quantity of food and drink purchased for UK households (Avg g per person per week)
250
200
150
100
50
0
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2009
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Beef Lamb Pork Fish Chicken
Source: Gov Family Food SurveyLatest Year:
Fresh primary beef and lamb volume decline.
Strongest growth continues to come from chicken.
Spend Volume
Leaner, more versatile cuts are
causing stability.
+2.4 +3.3
-1.5 -1.1
+2.5 -1.4
Larger joints are seen as expensive
-0.8 +1.1 with long cooking times.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 14th July 2019 Fresh primary proteins YOY % ChangePrimary Meat & Poultry promotions have
pulled back heavily…
…promotions have reduced across the board,
but key competitive categories like pizzas and
ready meals have retained much higher levels
of promotion
Kantar Worldpanel – Meat, Fish & Poultry Comparative Universe – 52 w/e 16 August 15 vs 11 August 19
16The biggest danger to primary beef lays within perceived
healthier primary proteins
Primary beef loses Sources of switching
Primary Chicken
22.5m
switching into other
primary MFP Primary Fish
17.7m
Primary Beef
existing shoppers Primary Pork
cutting back
Broadening the market to total MFP and
vegetarian, losses to all vegetarian
products account for 14% Primary Lamb
Source: Kantar | Switching Spend Primary Beef - 52 weeks ending 14 Jul 2019Despite this, consumer demand for protein remains high.
6%
Protein % change 2018 vs
4%
2019
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
TOTAL BEEF PORK LAMB CHICKEN FISH
PROTEIN
Kantar Worldpanel / Total Proteins / 52 w/e February 2019 vs February 2018
18Plant-based milk alternatives are growing fast but from a low
base
GB - Total Milk
Volume (000 L) | Yr on Yr % Change | Total Market | Fat Level: Total Milk | Total Milk | 52 w/e
100.0
Plant-based 80.0
share market 4%
Volume (000 L)-Yr on
60.0
Yr % Change
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
09-Sep-18 08-Sep-19Slight declines in milk volumes this year have been partially offset by
strong growth in cheese and yogurt
YoY volume difference
Total Dairy (Excl. -0.1%
Lard Eggs M
Total Milk -0.5%
Plant-based share milk
market 4%.
Total Cheese +1.8%
11% growth
Yoghurt +3.4%
Butter -0.7%
Fresh Cream +0.3%
Yoghurt Drinks And +0.8%
Juices
Fromage
-15.4%
Frais
-40000 -20000 0 20000 40000
Kg (000s) difference YoY
52 w/e 20 May 18 vs 52 w/e 19 May 19 | Total Dairy by type exc. alternatives | Volume change actual and %
20Consumer views on plant-based?
Around a quarter of consumers are regular buyers of meat
substitutes
Meat substitutes
Once a
Don’t week or
know more +4 WoW
2% 12%
12% Every 2 to 4 weeks
Never Net: agree with the following (Aug-2019)
-5 WoW
50%
8% Once every Non-meat products shouldn’t use
few descriptions like sausage, burger and 40%
steak
months
15%
Putting the meat substitutes next to meat 27%
Less often in supermarkets is confusing
I have accidentally bought a meat 9%
substitute product before
Source: AHDB/YouGov | How often, if at all, do you eat meat substitute products (e.g. Quorn, Tofu, etc)? | Apr/May 2019There are worries that it is too hard to get the right nutrients
57% are concerned they will miss out on key nutrients
% of shoppers following or considering each diet who agree with each statement…
Overall 52% 33% 15%
Vegan shoppers 46% 34% 19%
Vegetarian shoppers 50% 34% 16%
Flexitarian shoppers 56% 31% 14%
It's more complex following a vegan or vegetarian diet
Neither
It's easier following a vegan or vegetarian diet than a meat-based diet
• Source: 1 and 2 IGD ShopperVista, 30th Aug – 1st Sep’19. Base: 2,103 UK grocery shoppers. % excludes shoppers
who said they “Don’t knowMost consumers are not yet convinced that a plant-based diet is necessarily
healthier
Healthiest option
Jul-19
A vegan diet is less healthy
than a non-vegan diet 45%
A vegan diet is healthier
than a non-vegan diet 21%
Don't know 34%
Base: All respondents (Feb-19: 5277/(4094) / Not vegan (4053)
ERC_NEW: Considering these definitions, which of these best describes your usual eating habits?
V1_W11: How likely or not is it that you might become vegan in the future?
24 V3_wave13: In general do you think a vegan diet is healthier or less healthy than a non-vegan diet?
YGq63_wave_15: Did you take part in Veganuary this year? Veganuary is a charity that encourages people to try vegan for January.If health is a major driver of demand for plant-based, can ultra processed products meet that need?
Health is a growing driver of food choice generally…but
what about enjoyment?
£20.3 billion
33% 56% 78%
Health Convenience Enjoyment
Kantar Worldpanel // Total in home and carried out consumption // 52 w/e 12th of August 2018
26Sensory qualities of meat and dairy substitute products have
undoubtedly moved on: but not yet at parity
47%
vegan foods don’t taste as good
39%
vegan meals are boring
39% vegan meals are over priced
• Source: 1 and 2 IGD ShopperVista, 30th Aug – 1st Sep’19. Base: 2,103 UK grocery shoppers. % excludes shoppers
who said they “Don’t know”; 3 and 4 MintelTricks like “bleeding burgers” are not for everyone
15% meat-free burgers that bleed are appealing
• Source: MintelThe Future
Return to recessionary behaviours
– animal protein’s heartland
Millions of Occasions
60500
In Home / Carried Out Foods
60000
59500
59000
More cooking from
scratch especially Families eating
in batches together more
58500
58000
57500
57000 More foods consumed More lunchboxes and
because they ‘needed
using up’ breakfasts carried from
home
KWP Usage: Total in home and carried out foods
52 w/e March 2019Uncertainty around the
economy and Brexit are
driving short term
changes….
+126m
scratch main meals
including MFP
More cooking from scratch
especially in batches
…plant-based is used less
in scratch-cooking. Some
challenges
Kantar Worldpanel Usage. Savoury scratch cooking. Main meals. MFP. Total In Home
52 w/e July 2019The Future
• Still opportunities and headroom in plant-based growth – environmentally driven – but
growing awareness of “green washing”
• Challenges:
• Delivering taste/enjoyment credentials to bring in new shoppers/retain existing
• some early signs of market saturation – e.g. Nestle pulling launch of Garden
Gourmet. Product has to be absolutely right in such a competitive space
• Price point and pack sizes to enter the vital family market
• Consumer demand for health sometimes at odds with level of processing in some
products – those offering more natural benefits such as Wicked Kitchen offer less
compromise. Consumers realising plant-based is not a by-word for healthy
• Increase in retailers entering the space is likely to limit margin in future
(2016 27% market entries own label, compared to 38.6% now)
• More players entering the market, especially big FMCGs like Unilever and Kellogg’s.
How much is manufacturer/investor push compared to consumer pull?
• How will plant-based fare in a more challenging economic climate?Thank you
Sign Up Online
www.ahdb.org.uk/consumerinsight
Susie.stannard@ahdb.org.uk
© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2017 | All Rights Reserved© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2017 | All Rights Reserved
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