PAPER TRAIL: International panic buying created by social media content and traditional media coverage - Socint
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PAPER TRAIL: International panic buying created by social media content and traditional media coverage
PROBLEM PROFILE:
As of the morning of 09 March 2020 the coronavirus outbreak which has spread outwards from the
city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China has caused panic buying of toilet paper across multiple countries
after several weeks of mass international news coverage and social media discourse.
FACEBOOK:
Facebook data over the last 28 days was examined in order to extract the top 25 posts and metrics
of those posts for the key term “toilet paper.”
In total, these 25 posts generated 842,973 interactions (likes, comments, shares, and reactions). The
posts were shared 274,574 times and received 103,780 replies or comments. The majority of the
interactions (464,619) came from the use of reaction or like buttons.
Removing (but not ignoring for reasons set out below) posts which are not related directly to toilet
paper stockpiling and panic buying, 15 posts remained and generated 461,435 interactions.
Shares
172872
37%
Reactions
206737
45%
Comments
81826
18%
The remaining ten posts formed part of a common theme – discussions of toilet paper in either running
jokes or references to crafting. The term toilet paper is widely used.
This broad use plays into topic boosting as a mention of a keyword or phrase creates amplification
and, subsequently, increases visibility – even where the context is different.
Due to this, the phrase “toilet paper” became more visible however it was used as people searched for
it and discussed it.
The most effective global post relating to topic came from the Ozzy Man Review Facebook page with
9 million fans. This post, giving a comedy commentary on the well-publicised fight in a supermarket,
received 55,000 shares, 19,000 comments, and 64,000 shares.
PAPER TRAIL pg. 2
© SOCINT, 2020
Crucially, we are able to get a better sense of scale of spread from the number of video views: 4.7
million people have watched it through this post alone so far, which equates to over 18% of the current
population of Australia.
It is not hard to see how impactive even a limited number of Facebook posts have been in making this
topic visible and the top posts are almost exclusively Australian.
TWITTER:
Twitter data over the last four weeks showed a similar pattern. Of the 623,600 tweets identified
featuring the term “toilet paper,” 54% (337,300) were retweets, and 24% (147,100) were replies.
Over the four week period, the conversation has been mainly perpetuated by Twitter users identifying
as male (57%) with users identifying as female generating less (43%) of the discussion. The content is
99% English language.
The maximum number of tweets per minute occurred on February 28th 2020 with 290 tweets per
minute being generated. This is believed to relate to Hong Kong stories of local shortages.
However, the 28th of February saw a brief peak of only 17,375 tweets after a period of low numbers
of mentions. At this stage, the panic buying had not started and the topic dropped off until March 3,
after which it rapidly scaled up globally and resulted in UK panic buying over the weekend ending
Sunday March 8.
PAPER TRAIL pg. 3
© SOCINT, 2020
5000
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+00:00, 17375
2020-02-27 12:00:00 +00:00
2020-02-28 16:00:00
2020-02-28 08:00:00 +00:00
2020-02-29 04:00:00 +00:00
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+00:00, 34939
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2020-03-06 20:00:00 +00:00
2020-03-07 16:00:00 +00:00
2020-03-08 12:00:00 +00:00
The shift in the geography of the conversation is distinct, showing a global conversation when viewed
over the full four weeks becoming a pure anglosphere issue over the last week, when scaling occurred.
PAPER TRAIL pg. 4
© SOCINT, 2020
Five countries are responsible for 82.8% of the global Twitter conversation over the four week period,
and viewing them gives a sense of scale of the percentage contribution of each country to the global
total, and how each compares to the other.
United States Australia United Kingdom Canada Hong Kong
1.4
6.1
13.8
35.7
25.8
While many have stated that Hong Kong is the largest contributor to the global panic, this is not
reflected in the data. Over the four weeks, the United States and Australia respectively have
generated the most traffic.
This picture consolidated over the last week, reducing the measurable contribution to four countries,
with Australia overtaking the United States as the conversation source. Given the population scale, this
should not really have occurred. Hong Kong’s contribution fell below measurable as the real-world
panic buying incidents took place, meaning it is no longer directly relevant to the outcome.
Australia United States United Kingdom Canada
6
15.4
31.7
31
PAPER TRAIL pg. 5
© SOCINT, 2020
Looking more closely at the geographical distribution of the content, the Australian predominance over
the four week period becomes even clearer.
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
The usage of the term has been co-concurrently tying itself with the most globally visible conversation
for some time (coronavirus and covid19), increasing its visibility within searches and algorithm
generated timeline views.
#panicbuyers
#costco
#cornoravirus
#etsy
#amazonhandmade
#7news
#covid_19
#breaking
#toiletpaperwars
#mala
#aoc
#miniaoc
#nevadacaucus
#coronavirusaus
#coronavirusoutbreak
#9news
#australia
#covidー19
#panicbuying
#toiletpaperemergency
#coronavirusaustralia
#toiletpaperapocalypse
#auspol
#toiletpapergate
#toiletpaper
#toiletpapercrisis
#covid19
#toiletpaperpanic
#coronavirus
#darkages
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00%
PAPER TRAIL pg. 6
© SOCINT, 2020
But the amplification has not occurred through hashtags alone. Viewing keywording used in the content,
the tweets have latched across a range of topics, enhancing their visibility across a diverse range of
other areas. This means even more people would have been likely to see the content.
The conversation is also almost entirely organic, with only limited signs of automation which are not
particularly concerning in terms of artifice in the discussion.
PAPER TRAIL pg. 7
© SOCINT, 2020
Turning to distribution of links, it is clear that the majority of unique URLs being distributed are
attributable to genuine news sources. This supports the conclusion that the current real-world behaviour
has resulted from reaction to increasing media coverage of social media, itself the generating and
amplifying social medial trends, creating a cycle of constant escalation.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Reporting, such as that around the NT News special edition in which the paper printed eight pages of
toilet paper in its publication, helped drive the global trend to its eventual peak.
This example headline is from the Guardian and the phrasing would clearly drive a message to
readers that the shortage was in fact a real issue and would likely contribute to driving offline
behaviour patterns:
PAPER TRAIL pg. 8
© SOCINT, 2020
SUMMARY:
The conversation may have started in Hong Kong but this has not driven the global trend which has
resulted in panic-buying in Anglophone countries.
Australia is the primary source of the upscaling of the conversation and this has driven international
media coverage, in turn feeding more social media content.
Both the media coverage and social media content have produced a clear real-world outcome.
ENDS.
PAPER TRAIL pg. 9
© SOCINT, 2020
PAPER TRAIL pg. 10
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