Pandemic Politics: An Update From the Editor of the National Journal - May 20, 2020
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Pandemic Politics: An Update From the Editor of the National Journal May 20, 2020
Chelsea Neil, Moderator John DuFour
Director, Federal Government Relations Editor in Chief
ELFA National Journal
Jeff Dufour, Editor in Chief
Potential provisions in the Phase 4 stimulus package
Unlike the four previous legislative packages, the next package is expected to move more slowly.
Republicans have voiced support for: Democrats have voiced support for:
• Increased infrastructure spending: Pres. Trump, Sens. Shelby • Support for state and local governments: Supported by both
(R-AL) and Sullivan (R-AK) support House and Senate, also received support from Sens. Susan Collins
(R-ME) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
• Sen. Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) also urged GOP
senators to push back on the Trump administration’s calls to • Federal rent assistance, funding for election reform,
boost infrastructure spending hazard pay for essential workers, and funding for the US
Postal Service: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
• Liability protections for reopening businesses: GOP House
shared these priorities for a phase 4 bill
and Senate leadership issued a joint statement stating this is a
“must” for a phase 4 bill • Federal assistance to help states transition to vote-by-mail
programs: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-12) has stated
• Incentives for supply chain repatriation: House Minority
support
Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) released a statement supporting a
government agenda to encourage American companies to build • Another round of stimulus checks and an extension of
critical supply chains in the US unemployment insurance
• Reforms to PPP: Proposed reforms from Sens. Scott (R-FL) and • Supporting tribal government needs, increasing rural
Toomey (R-PA) include requirements for businesses to show broadband, and addressing food security: other Democratic
reduction in revenue and to make it easier for small companies to priorities for phase 4 bills
obtain loans
• Intraparty divisions: Moderate Democrats are concerned about
• Payroll tax cut: President Trump strongly supports but has large amounts of spending, while liberals are advocating for more
received push back from some GOP leaders reforms
• GOP senators have indicated they would like to wait more time • Although House Democrats have started to assemble phase 4
before passing another large stimulus package legislation, some are hesitant to vote on a bill that has little
chance of being enacted
Sources: The Hill, Axios, ABCNews, Washington Post.
Slide last updated on: May 6, 2020 4
Must-pass legislation in 2020
FISA programs - March 15, 2020 Health care programs – May 22, 2020
(extended 77 days) (extended until November 30, 2020)
• These include Section 215 (meta-data on domestic • Community Health Centers
text messages and phone calls), roving wiretaps, • Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
and lone wolf surveillance • National Health Service Corps
• Some lawmakers also want to use this time to • Various other public health-related programs
reform FISA
FAST Act - September 30, 2020 NDAA - December 31, 2020
• Various roadway programs, including those • Sets the budget for the Defense Department and
funded by the Highway Trust Fund other defense-related programs
• Many programs related to bridges and railways • Often includes other policy proposals
• Any major infrastructure deals would likely go in
this bill
5
Additional items that might be tacked on to must-pass bills
House Democratic climate change proposal Other tax extenders
• Potential blueprint for 2021 if a Democratic • Opportunity for lobbyists that didn’t get their
president wins proposals included in December
Drug pricing Surprise billing
• The House passed H.R. 3 in December, but Senate • A deal seemed to have been reached between the
Majority Leader McConnell won’t put it to a vote Senate HELP and House Energy & Commerce
• Senate Finance Chair Grassley has also introduced committees in December
a bill (S. 2543) but has received GOP pushback • It was excluded at the last moment from the
FY2020 package
6
The 2020 Elections
7
The 2016 baseline
10 states were decided by less than 5%
■ Clinton win ■ Trump win
Clinton by 2.7%
Clinton by 1.5% Trump by 1% Trump by 0.3% (19,995 votes)
(44,470 votes) (27,257 votes) (13,080 votes)
WA
VT
VT-3 ME*
MT ND
OR MN Clinton by 0.4%
NH
NH-4 (2,701 votes)
ID SD WI NY NY
WY MI
IA PA Trump by 1.2%
Clinton by 2.4% NV NE (68,236 votes)
(26,434 votes) IL IN OH
UT
CO WV
CA MO VA
KS
KY
NC
AZ TN Trump by 3.8%
OK
NM AR SC
(177,009 votes)
Trump by 3.9 %
(91,682 votes) MS AL GA
TX LA
AK FL
Trump by 1.2%
HI
(112,911 votes)
*Clinton won Maine’s statewide vote, but Trump received an electoral vote for winning the 2nd district
Slide last updated March 19, 2019 8
President Trump has significantly more cash on hand than his
Democratic opponents
Total cash on hand at the end of April 2020
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
$98
$26
$16
$11
$5
$2 $1 $0
Trump Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar Gabbard Steyer Buttigieg
(dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out)
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: April 28, 2020 9
Trump’s approval has fluctuated in recent weeks, in the midst
of the coronavirus pandemic
Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL RESPONSES
44.6% 50.4% 43.4% 51.4% 46% 51%
RealClearPolitics Average FiveThirtyEight Average NBC News/WSJ
Week of May 8, 2020 Week of May 8, 2020 Last poll: April 15, 2020
Sources: RealClearPolitics.com, FiveThirtyEight.com, NBC News/WSJ, 2020.
Slide last updated on: May 8, 2020 10Presidents’ approval ratings in April of their re-election years
Gallup comparative presidential approval ratings
IN APRIL OF EACH PRESIDENT’S FOURTH YEAR
69
54 54 54
52
47
43
41
39
Trump Obama April W. Bush Clinton H.W. Bush Reagan Carter Nixon Eisenhower
April '20 '12 April '04 April '96 April '92 April '84 April '80 April '72 April '56
Source: Gallup
Slide last updated on: April 17, 2020 11Major polls show Biden with a slight lead over Trump
Head-to-head general election polls
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one
Fox News
(April 4-7, 2020) 42 42 7 6 3
Monmouth University
(April 30-May 4, 41 50 3 5 1
2020)
ABC/Washington Post
(March 22-25, 2020) 47 49 21 1
NBC/WSJ
(April 13-15, 2020) 42 49 5 4
CNN (May 7-10,
2020) 46% 51% 1%
1%
1%
Slide last updated on: May 19, 2020 12102 electoral votes are considered toss ups for the 2020
presidential election
Cook Political Report: 2020 Electoral College ratings
■ Solid D ■ Likely D ■ Lean D ■ Toss Up ■ Lean R ■ Likely R ■ Solid R
Electoral college votes 188 28 16 102 54 25 125
270 majority
needed to win
WA
12 VT
MT ND ME*
3
3 3 4
OR
MN
7
ID 10 NY NH 4
SD WI
4 3 29
WY 10 MI
3 16
IA PA
NE* 6 20
NV 5 OH
6 IL IN
UT 18
CO 20 11 MA 11
6 WV
CA 9 KS 5 VA 13
55 MO RI 4
6
10 KY 8 Split electoral votes
NC 15 CT 7
TN 11 District
AZ OK
11 NM 7
AR SC State
6 9 NJ 14 1 2 3
5
AL GA
MS
9 16 DE 3 Nebraska Solid R Solid R Toss
6
AK TX Up
LA
3 38 MD 10
8 Maine Solid D Likely
R
FL DC 3
HI 29
4
*Nebraska and Maine award two electors each to the winner of their state’s popular vote and one elector to the winner of each of their congressional districts
Sources: Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: April 17, 2020 13Presidential approval by state
Net Approval (approval minus disapproval)
-28 28
-27
-6
6 9 -39
-21 -5
-18
19 -10 -26
10 -20
27 -10
-18
-5 -17
6 -9
-12
-10
0
11 -18 9 -10
-13 24 -24
-28 -5
4 8
17
4
16
1 14
-11 11 12
14 28 2
7 21
5
3
-21
Source: Morning Consult
Molly Newell | Slide last updated March 8, 2020 14Biden is slightly ahead in all swing states except NC
Average of head-to-head general election polls
REALCLEARPOLITICS, AS OF MAY 8, 2020
44.2 48.6
Arizona
43.3 46.5
Florida
41.0 46.5
Michigan
47.0 46.7
North Carolina
41.8 48.3
Pennsylvania
44.0 46.7
Wisconsin
Sources: RealClearPolitics
Slide last updated on: May 8, 2020 15Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on
performance in swing states
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
2016 election
outcome
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
PA WI FL GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 29 16
2018 Senate race
outcomes in swing
states
MN MI AZ NC*
10 16 11 15
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018 270 Electoral College votes needed to win
Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019 16The suburbs
17The haters
18Trump’s approval among adults 65+ has decreased amid the
coronavirus pandemic
Net approval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak
among U.S. adults
■ All adults ■ Adults 65+
25
A divide among younger and older
voters clearly emerged in 2004, with
older voters trending Republican and
20
younger voters trending Democratic.
Trump won older voters by 7 points and
lost younger voters by nearly 20 points
15 in 2016.
Older voters vote at the highest rate of
10
any age groups, making them a vital
voting bloc for President Trump. Older
voters have remained supportive of the
5 president throughout the majority of his
term.
0
Since Mid-March, approval of
Trump’s handling of coronavirus
among seniors has decreased from 19
-5 to -1 net approval, as seniors are the
group at the highest risk of dying from
the pandemic.
-10
Sources: Morning Consult, National Journal, Washington Examiner.
Slide last updated on: May 14, 2020 19Older voters have the highest voting rates of all age groups
Reported voting rates by age group
■ 18-29 year olds ■ 30-44 year olds ■ 45-64 year olds ■ 65 and older
75.3% 76.1%
74.4%
72.7% 72.0%
75.1% 71.0% 70.3% 70.9%
69.1% 69.6%
69.8% 72.2% 72.3%
70.4% 69.2%
68.2% 67.8% 67.9%
67.2% 67.1% 67.9% 66.6%
63.1% 62.4% 61.8%
59.5% 58.7%
58.5%
52.0% 56.9%
51.1%
49.1% 49.0%
48.2%
46.1%
45.0%
43.8%
39.6% 40.3%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Slide last updated on: March 14, 2020 20National voter turnout in midterm elections, 1978-2018
(Percentage of citizens aged 18+ that voted)
56%
54%
52%
50%
48%
46%
44%
42%
40%
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
21How interested are you in the 2020
presidential election?
SAMPLE OF 1,107 REGISTERED VOTERS, APR 4-7, MARGIN OF ERROR ±3 PERCENTAGE POINTS
Not at all, 5% Don't know, 1%
Extremely, 48%
Somewhat, 20%
Very, 26%
Sources: Fox News
Molly Newell | Slide last updated May 18, 2020 22Absentee/vote-by-mail have nearly doubled since 2004
■ Early vote ■ By-mail ballots ■ Absentee ballots
50%
45%
40%
35% 10.2%
17.2%
30% 9.0%
8.3%
13.1% 7.2%
25%
4.9%
4.6%
20% 5.9%
1.8%
8.1%
8.4%
15%
22.8%
10% 19.8% 21.0%
17.4% 17.7%
12.1% 13.2%
5%
0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Sources: Vox, New York Times.
Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: May 6, 2020 23Three criteria for a running mate
1. Consensus that she’s qualified to be president
2. No surprises that keep the pick in the headlines past week one
3. Ability to deliver in the debate
Examples:
Mondale, 1976
H.W. Bush, 1980
Bentsen, 1988
Al Gore, 1992
Biden, 2008
24Senators up for re-election in 2020
WA
ME
MT ND VT
OR MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY* MI
IA PA
NE
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CA CO WV
KS* MO VA
KY
TN* NC
AZ OK
NM* AR SC
MS AL GA
AK TX LA
FL
HI
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
Democrats (12) Republicans (22)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)
Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
Slide last updated on: August 29, 2019 25Republicans currently hold 9 of 11 “Toss Up” or “Lean” seats
in the Senate
Cook Political Report ratings of 2020 Senate seats
Democrat-held seat
Republican-held seat
Incumbent not seeking reelection
11 GOP
Sullivan (AK)
8 Dem Cotton (AR)
1 Dem, 4 GOP Risch (ID)
Coons (DE) Cassidy (LA)
Durbin (IL) Jones (AL) Sasse (NE)
Markey (MA) Roberts (KS) 4 GOP Inhofe (OK)
4 GOP
Shaheen (NH) Loeffler (GA) Rounds (SD)
Booker (NJ) McSally (AZ) Daines (MT) Graham (SC) Alexander (TN)
2 Dem
Merkley (OR) 1 Dem Gardner (CO) Ernst (IA) McConnell (KY) Hyde-Smith (MS)
Reed (RI) Smith (MN) Collins (ME) Perdue (GA) Cornyn (TX) Moore Capito (WV)
Warner (VA) Udall (NM) Peters (MI) Tillis (NC) Enzi (WY)
Solid Dem Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss Up Lean GOP Likely GOP Solid GOP
Source: The Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: May 15, 2020Democrats currently hold 17 Toss Up seats in the House
Cook Political Report ratings of competitive 2020 House seats
Democrat-held seat
Republican-held seat
Independent-held seat
Incumbent not seeking reelection
17 Dem, 5 GOP
CA-21 Cox
17 Dem, 2 GOP 18 Dem, 1 GOP CA-25 VACANT 17 GOP
GA-6 McBath
AZ-2 Kirkpatrick AZ-1 O’Halleran GA-7 Woodall
AK-AL Young
CA-7 Bera CA-10 Harder IA-1 Finkenauer
CA-45 Porter CA-39 Cisneros IA-2 Loebsack CA-22 Nunes
CO-6 Crow CA-48 Rouda IA-3 Axne FL-16 Buchanan
11 GOP, 1 Ind IA-4 King
FL-27 Shalala FL-26 Mucarsel-Powell IL-13 Davis
IL-6 Casten IL-14 Underwood ME-2 Golden KS-2 Watkins
IL-17 Bustos KS-3 Davids MN-7 Peterson AZ-6 Schweikert KY-6 Barr
MN-3 Phillips MI-8 Slotkin NJ-3 Kim FL-15 Spano MI-6 Upton
NC-2 Holding MI-11 Stevens NM-2 Torres Small IN-5 Brooks MN-1 Hagedorn
NC-6 Walker MN-2 Craig NY-11 Rose MI-3 Amash (I) MN-8 Stauber
NV-4 Horsford NV-3 Lee NY-22 Brindisi MO-2 Wagner MT-AL Gianforte
NJ-5 Gottheimer NY-19 Delgado OK-5 Horn
NE-2 Bacon NC-8 Hudson
NJ-11 Sherrill NH-1 Pappas PA-8 Cartwright
NJ-2 Van Drew NY-1 Zeldin
NY-18 Maloney NJ-7 Malinowski PA-10 Perry
OR-4 DeFazio PA-7 Wild SC-1 Cunningham NY-2 King NY-24 Katko
PA-17 Lamb TX-7 Fletcher TX-22 Olson OH-1 Chabot TX-2 Crenshaw
VA-10 Wexton TX-23 Hurd TX-24 Marchant PA-1 Fitzpatrick TX-31 Carter
WA-8 Schrier TX-32 Allred VA-2 Luria TX-10 McCaul VA-5 Riggleman
WI-3 Kind UT-4 McAdams VA-7 Spanberger TX-21 Roy WA-3 Herrera Beutler
Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican
Source: Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: April 10, 2020GOP committees have outraised Democrats—but mostly at the
top of the ticket
Total receipts by national party PACs
AS OF MARCH 31, 2020
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
RNC $318,577,145
DCCC $168,441,533
DNC $147,763,234
NRCC $124,474,155
NRSC $97,987,787
DSCC $91,352,073
Total Dem $407,556,839
Total GOP $541,039,087
Sources: FEC
Alice Johnson| Slide last updated on: April 28, 2020 28Wrap Up For previously-recorded web seminars go to: www.elfaonline.org/events/elearning/web-seminars Next Wednesday
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