Biden 2020 campaign toolbox - An overview of former Vice President Biden's campaign for the 2020 presidential election including advertising ...
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Biden 2020 campaign toolbox An overview of former Vice President Biden’s campaign for the 2020 presidential election including advertising spending, campaign staff, and more July 29, 2020 Producer National Journal Presentation Center
Roadmap Campaign overview Fundraising and spending Endorsements Potential VP and cabinet picks Polling
Biden for President campaign overview Slogan: Headquarters: Website: "Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead" Philadelphia, PA joebiden.com Key Staff Campaign Manager Deputy Manager General Election Political Director Chief of Staff Jennifer O’Malley and Comms Dir. Strategist Erin Wilson Zeppa Kreager Dillon Kate Bedingfield Greg Schultz Deputy Campaign Deputy Campaign National Press National Press Traveling National Manager Manager Secretary Secretary Press Secretary Pete Kavanaugh Rufus Gifford Jamal Brown TJ Ducklo Remi Yamamoto Deputy Campaign National Organizing National Finance Chief Financial Digital Director Manager Director Director Officer Katie Petrelius Rob Flaherty Saloni Multani Natalie Quillian Kurt Bagley Senior Advisors Symone Sanders Cristobal Alex Brandon English Anita Dunn Karine Jean-Pierre Strategist and CNN Former President, Senior advisor, GPS Managing director, Political analyst, political commentator Latino Victory Project IMPACT SKDKnickerbocker MSNBC Sources: National Journal Research, Network Science Initiative, Ballotpedia, Democracy in Action. Slide last updated on: July 27, 2020 3
Former Vice President Biden has quickly adapted his campaigning efforts amid the coronavirus pandemic Campaign podcast Virtual events • On March 29th, Biden launched “Here’s the Deal” • The Biden campaign is hosting events and fundraisers • The podcast has featured former 2020 in a digital format presidential contenders including Gov. Jay Inslee • A virtual fundraiser for Chicago area high-dollar (D-WA) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) donors will include a Q&A session with Biden and • The podcast has not only focused on the former Obama Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker coronavirus pandemic, but has also featured • The Biden campaign also hosted a virtual town hall conversations on climate change and the with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) about the upcoming election “disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on communities of color.” Social media livestreams Local news appearances • Biden has begun to utilize social media platforms • In response to decreased visibility due to the such as Facebook for live-streamed speeches and coronavirus outbreak, Biden has been interviewed by Q&A videos, and Instagram where he recently outlets in battleground states to air before Trump’s joined a quarantine party hosted by DJ D-Nice briefings • Sen. Sanders’ endorsement was announced via a • The appearances are aimed at groups of voters that are live-stream on social media where he joined Biden key to Biden’s election in November, such as suburban and they talked about various issues residents, younger voters, and nonwhite voters Sources: Washington Post, NBC News, Grist, Washington Post, Chicago Sun Times, Axios, NBC News, Santa Fe New Mexican, Florida Politics, NPR, CNN. Slide last updated on: April 28, 2020 4
Roadmap Campaign overview Fundraising and spending Endorsements Potential VP and cabinet picks Polling
So far, President Trump has outraised former Vice President Biden FEC FILINGS AS OF JUNE 30, 2020 ■ President Donald Trump ■ Former Vice President Biden $342,699,051 Receipts $278,853,304 $237,285,774 Disbursements $169,935,828 $113,024,981 Cash on hand $108,917,476 Sources: Federal Election Commission. Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020 6
Spotlight: advertising spending and media presence SPENDING BETWEEN JAN. 5, 2019 AND JUL. 18, 2020 Facebook likes: Twitter followers: Instagram followers: 1.9 million 7.4 million 2.9 million The Biden campaign announced its first TV ad buy of the general election, a $15 million investment, in June 2020. The ads will air in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well as on national cable, with Spanish-language ads to be aired specifically in Arizona and Florida. Targeted Facebook spending by gender ■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown 26.5M 62.8% 36.1% 16M Targeted Facebook spending by age group ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+ 31.3% 39.1% 24.0% Facebook Google Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive, New York Times. Slide last updated on: July 27, 2020 7
Roadmap Campaign overview Fundraising and spending Endorsements Potential VP and cabinet picks Polling
Former VP Joe Biden received over 100 endorsements from U.S. representatives during the primaries ENDORSEMENTS AS OF APRIL 8, 2020 Notable endorsements Former president endorsements • President Barack Obama Former 2020 presidential candidate endorsements • Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) • Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) • Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA-6) • Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) • Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang • Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke • Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY) • Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI-02) • Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg • Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 114 • Former Rep. John Delaney • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) 34 27 20 18 15 7 7 Representatives DNC members State legislative Mayors Statewide office Senators Dropped out Governors leaders holders candidates Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Slate, CBS News. Slide last updated on: April 28, 2020 9
A handful of prominent Republicans have publicly announced their refusal to vote for Trump in 2020 and their endorsement of Biden Carly Fiorina The former presidential candidate said that she will be voting for Biden in 2020, as she felt the United States needed “real leadership that could unify the country.” Colin Powell In the wake of George Floyd’s death and the ensuing protests, the former Secretary of State announced that he will be voting for Biden in 2020. He claimed that Trump has “drifted away” from the Constitution and he is particularly troubled by Trump’s “way in which he was going around insulting…anybody who dared who dared to speak against him.” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) Romney voted to convict President Trump in February’s impeachment trial and announced that he would not be voting for Trump in 2020. However, Romney has been upfront that he will not vote for the Democratic candidate, telling The Atlantic that he might write in his wife’s name instead, as he did in 2016. Undecided Republicans Other noteworthy Republicans •Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said she was “struggling” to •James Mattis, although a non-partisan former military leader, support Trump’s re-election following James Mattis’ public rebuke has openly denounced Trump after leaving his administration of the president •Following the George Floyd-related protests, Mattis labeled •Former president George W. Bush has reportedly decided not Trump “the first president in my lifetime who does not try to to support Trump in 2020, although he has not yet made any public unite the American people” statements •Similarly, John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff and •Former Florida governor Jeb Bush also is currently undecided homeland security secretary, publicly stated that he agreed with •Cindy McCain, Sen. John McCain’s widow, will supposedly vote Mattis’ critiques for Biden, but hasn’t made any public statements Sources: Axios. Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated on: July 8, 2020 10
Republican Party members have recently established a number of anti-Trump and pro-Biden PACs and organizations 43 Alumni for Biden Right Side PAC Founded July 2020 Founded June 2020 • Includes hundreds of members of George W. Bush’s • Founded by Matt Borges, the former head of the Ohio administration, including former Cabinet members Republican Party, and Anthony Scaramucci, Trump’s and other senior advisers former White House communications director • Plans to make public a list of its some of its higher-profile • Initially targeting battleground states of Michigan, members in the next few weeks Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and • Distinguishes itself with a greater emphasis on “positive Florida messages to reinforce Biden’s campaign” • More information on key donors will be released in mid- July with upcoming public filing of contributions with the FEC Republican Voters Against Trump The Lincoln Project Founded May 2020 Founded December 2019 • A coalition of Republicans, former Republicans, • Led by George Conway (Trump counselor Kellyanne conservatives, and former Trump voters Conway’s husband), Steve Schmidt, John Weaver, and • Aims to amplify the voices of this portion of the voting Rick Wilson population who cannot support Trump moving forward • A “broadly conservative” organization motivated by a • Emphasis on getting white, college-educated, suburban loyalty to the Constitution Republicans to vote for Biden • A focus on persuading (often through TV ads) disillusioned conservatives to vote against Trump and Trumpism, even if it means Democratic control of the Senate and the House Sources: The Lincoln Project, Republican Voters Against Trump, Axios, 43 Alumni for Biden, The Hill. Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated on: July 8, 2020 11
Roadmap Campaign overview Fundraising and spending Endorsements Potential VP and cabinet picks Polling
There are 12 women on Biden’s shortlist of potential running mates Vice presidential contenders mentioned by Biden or his advisors Senator Kamala Senator Elizabeth Rep. Karen Bass Harris (D-CA) Warren (D-MA) (D-CA-37) Former National Rep. Val Demings Governor Michelle Security Advisor (D-FL-10) Lujan Grisham (NM) Susan Rice Atlanta Mayor Senator Tammy Senator Tammy Keisha Lance Duckworth (D-IL) Baldwin (D-WI) Bottoms Governor Former gubernatorial Governor Gina Gretchen candidate Stacey Abrams (D-GA) Raimondo (RI) Whitmer (MI) Insiders to the vetting process declined to name additional contenders and expressed that the process is fluid. Additional candidates may still be invited to participate in the review process. Stacey Abrams has not been named by Biden or his advisers, though many speculate she could be in the running. Source: The Washington Post, ABC News, The New York Times. Yanelle Cruz | Slide last updated on: June 30, 2020 13
Biden’s advisers are beginning to strategize Biden’s “Return to Normal” plan While it is unclear if Former Vice President Biden will announce potential cabinet members before the election, many of his top advisers have begun strategizing who could be appointed to key positions. Many potential contenders are former Obama administration officials that Biden knows and trusts. Officials have yet to run a process to surface new talent, but it is expected that they will do so. Cabinet and key position contenders mentioned by Biden’s advisors Former Secretary of State John Kerry could Sen. Elizabeth Warren could be a contender for return to his old position or be appointed to a new Treasury Secretary. position devoted to climate change. Jamie Dimon, chair and CEO of JPMorgan Chase Former Undersecretary of Defense Michèle and Anne Finucane, vice chair of Bank of Flournoy could be a top contender to be in charge of America, are two other possibilities for Treasury the Pentagon. Secretary. Former Mayor Mike Bloomberg could be Sen. Kamala Harris could be a contender for attorney appointed to be the head of the World Bank. general if she is not chosen as his running mate. Former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice is a top contender for attorney general. could be appointed as Secretary of State. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg could be appointed Tom Nides, a Morgan Stanley executive, could be to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations or as considered for Secretary of Commerce or U.S. trade U.S. trade representative. representative. Source: Axios. Slide last updated on: April 23, 2020 14
Roadmap Campaign overview Fundraising and spending Endorsements Potential VP and cabinet picks Polling
A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over President Trump Head-to-head general election polls AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS ■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one Fox News (July 12-15, 2020) 41 49 4 5 1 Monmouth University (June 26-June 30, 41 53 4 2 2020) ABC/Washington Post (July 12-15, 2020) 40 55 4 11 NBC/WSJ (July 9-12, 2020) 40 51 7 2 Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University. Slide last updated on: July 21, 2020 16
Average of head-to-head general election polls REALCLEARPOLITICS, AS OF JULY 28, 2020 ■ Trump ■ Biden 45.0 49.0 Arizona 42.7 50.5 Florida 41.2 49.6 Michigan 45.0 48.0 North Carolina 42.8 50.2 Pennsylvania 41.8 48.2 Wisconsin Sources: RealClearPolitics. Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020 17
Biden’s 2020 unfavorable ratings consistently run lower than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 Is your opinion of ____ favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about him/her? QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL DATA FROM FEBRUARY-SEPTEMBER 2016 AND FEBRUARY-JULY 2020 n Percent who rated Biden unfavorable (2020) n Percent who rated Clinton unfavorable (2016) 70% 60% 58% 57% 50% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% February April June August Sources: Quinnipiac University Poll. Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated: July 28, 2020. 18
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