Oscars 2019 Predictions - Oliver & Ohlbaum
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Oscars 2019 Predictions
Written by Marcus Kyte 15/02/2019
The 2019 Academy Awards take place later this month, though much has been made of the hosting and presentation
issues this year, the focus will – hopefully – soon turn back to the films themselves. Before the deluge of opinion
pieces begins, we take a more quantitative approach – examining how the nominees are faring through our awards
prediction model.
Predicting film awards is notoriously tricky and no strategy is perfect. However, our model has a good track record
in recent years by using nominee’s performance across the awards season to gauge their potential chances at the
Oscars via a points-based system. In our model, each award is worth a certain amount of points based on how closely
their winners have matched with the Oscars in that category over the past twenty years, with a nomination worth a
fifth of the points for a win. Assuming that the voting bodies of each award, and their voting tendencies, remain
broadly consistent, then past performance should be a good indicator of the nominees’ chances of winning. We’ve
also compared the current nominees’ results to those of the past eight winners to ascertain where nominees likely
need to be to realistically put themselves in contention for the statuette.
Since our final predictions for the BAFTAs a few weeks ago, we’ve applied our model to some extra categories,
including supporting actor/actress and documentary awards. With the final data in place, a variety of films look set
to take home prizes at the Oscars though a number of categories, especially within acting, remain quite tight.
Oliver & Ohlbaum are leading independent, strategic advisers to the media, entertainment and sports industries
1 Best Picture
Roma has established a clear lead in the race for Best Picture after wins at several awards, including the Critics’
Choice and BAFTA awards, and is the only nominee with a points total matching or surpassing recent winners. If
Roma does go on to win, it would be the first ever foreign-language Best Picture winner and the first victory for
Netflix in any of the big five categories at the Oscars – a fitting end to a campaign that has already broken similar
records across the awards season. The films which were thought to be in close contention for the main prize at the
start of the season have since fallen away. Green Book probably has the best chance out of the rest after its success
at the Producers Guild of America Awards but the film has generally been unable to triumph over Roma elsewhere.
250
Argo
BAFTAs
Directors
Guild
200
Critics’ Roma
Choice
150
100
Moonlight
Green Book
Black Panther A Star Is Born
50 BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Vice
0 Previous 8 winners
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 at this stage
Oliver & Ohlbaum Ltd +44 (0) 20 7313 5900 1
www.oando.co.uk info@oando.co.uk2 Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón is the clear favourite in the Best Director category for his work on Roma having swept the awards
throughout the season so far. Our model has given him more points at this stage, and makes him more of a certainty
for the award, than any winner from the past 8 years, including his own previous victory in 2014 for Gravity.
250 Directors
Guild
Alfonso Cuarón
200 Critics’
Choice Alfonso Cuarón
150 BAFTAs
100
50
Spike Lee Ang Lee
Adam McKay
Yorgos Lanthimos
Pawel Pawlikowski
0
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
3 Best Actor
The contest for Best Actor is highly competitive this year, though Rami Malek recently emerged as the frontrunner
after his wins at the Screen Actors Guild of America and BAFTA awards, both of which are usually good indicators
for the Oscars. Points totals for Best Actor nominees are low across the board this year – after the success of Ethan
Hawke, who was not nominated by the Academy, earlier in the season – with only Rami Malek just having a total
similar to some recent winners. Christian Bale is his closest competitor after winning at the Critics’ Choice awards,
his turn as former US politician Dick Cheney in Vice may also go down well the Academy’s predominantly US-based
voting body. It also remains to be seen whether Rami Malek’s campaign will be impacted by the re-emergence of
controversy surrounding Bryan Singer though it did not seem to affect his performance at the BAFTAs.
300
Colin Firth
250
BAFTAs
200 Screen
Actors Guild
150 Golden Rami Malek
Globes Jean Dujardin
100
Christian Bale
50 Bradley Cooper
Viggo Mortensen
Willem Dafoe
0
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
Oliver & Ohlbaum Ltd +44 (0) 20 7313 5900 2
www.oando.co.uk info@oando.co.uk4 Best Actress
Best Actress is another tight race with four of the nominees having won notable awards during the season. Despite
Olivia Colman’s win at the BAFTAs on home turf, Glenn Close remains the favourite after winning several important
American awards, including the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild of America awards, and the relatively early
release of The Wife for an awards contender does not seem to have materially affected her chances. A win for Glenn
Close would be seen as a somewhat overdue recognition from the Academy, hence why she is seen as a runaway
favourite by some despite not being as clear a certainty as several recent winners according to our model.
250
Cate Blanchett
Screen
Actors Guild BAFTAs
200
Critics’
Choice
150 Glenn Close
Golden
Globes
100 Jennifer Lawrence
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
50 Melissa McCarthy
Yalitza Aparicio
0
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
5 Best Supporting Actor
The outlook for Best Supporting Actor has shifted considerably during the awards season. Richard E. Grant racked
up a number of wins for his work in Can You Ever Forgive Me? earlier in the season, when most critics’ awards take
place. However, ever since the new year, his campaign has seemingly lost momentum and Mahershala Ali has
dominated the category, winning a number of important precursors to the Oscars and becoming the clear favourite.
A victory for Richard E. Grant at the Oscars is not out of the question – his points total is quite close to a few previous
winners – but as his success has come primarily at critics’ awards, it seems increasingly unlikely.
250
BAFTAs
Screen J.K. Simmons
200
Actors Guild
150 Golden Mahershala Ali
Globes
Chicago
Film Critics
100
Richard E. Grant Christoph Waltz
50
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Sam Rockwell
0
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
Oliver & Ohlbaum Ltd +44 (0) 20 7313 5900 3
www.oando.co.uk info@oando.co.uk6 Best Supporting Actress
Regina King is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress after wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards
despite If Beale Street Could Talk’s relative lack of presence across the awards season (which is surprising given Barry
Jenkin’s previous success with Moonlight). Rachel Weisz’s recent win at the BAFTAs – her case there likely
strengthened by the British voting body – makes her the closest competitor though her points total is still reasonably
far behind the past eight winners at this stage.
250
Patricia Arquette
200
Critics’
Choice BAFTAs
150
Golden
Globes
Regina King Alicia Vikander
100
Rachel Weisz
50
Emma Stone
Amy Adams
0 Marina de Tavira
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
7 Best Documentary
Best Documentary is often quite unpredictable compared to other categories, with multiple different films winning
at different awards. Our model has Free Solo slightly out in front after its recent success at the BAFTAs and Eddie
awards (handed out by the American Cinema Editors), though given the current climate the Academy may end up
selecting one of the more political or socially-conscious nominees, RBG and Minding the Gap, which are not far
behind.
160
Amy
140
120
BAFTAs
100 Eddie
Awards
National
80 Board of
Review Free Solo
60
RBG
40
Minding the Gap
20
Hale County This… Undefeated
0 Of Fathers and Sons
18/11 02/12 16/12 30/12 13/01 27/01 10/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
Oliver & Ohlbaum Ltd +44 (0) 20 7313 5900 4
www.oando.co.uk info@oando.co.uk8 Best Animated Feature Film
In complete contrast to Best Documentary, there is usually a high correlation among Best Animated Feature winners
between awards. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is this year’s heir apparent having triumphed at most notable
awards, especially later on in the season – it would take a significant upset, even more so than Big Hero 6’s win in a
tight year in 2014, for one of the other nominees to take home the statuette.
600 Annie
Awards Inside Out
500 Spider-Man: Into…
Critics’
Choice
400 Golden
Globes
300
200
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
100 Big Hero 6
Ralph Breaks The…
Mirai
0
25/11 09/12 23/12 06/01 20/01 03/02 Previous 8 winners
at this stage
Oliver & Ohlbaum are leading independent, strategic advisers to the media, entertainment and sports industries -
visit www.oando.co.uk to find out more about what we do
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