NZ Drivers' Readiness for CAVs - Samuel G. Charlton & Nicola J. Starkey - Trafinz
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NZ Drivers’ Readiness for CAVs
Samuel G. Charlton & Nicola J. Starkey
©2016 Transport Research Group, University of Waikato. Information in this presentation is not to
be re‐distributed or used without attribution to the Transport Research Group, University of Waikato
CAVs – Connected and Autonomous vehicles
have the potential to improve road safety
and decrease congestion
• Reduce the road toll
• Decrease road infrastructure (e.g., traffic lights)
• Improve safety for pedestrian and cyclists
• Improve accessibility and mobility
• Eliminate the need for parking
Transport Futures, Ministry of Transport, 2016
2
CAVs may have other benefits as well
Shared autonomous vehicles could increase urban space by 15 percent
“making our cities greener, increase quality of life and also create the
potential for additional housing”
Autonomous vehicles could slash road infrastructure costs
“if cars are able communicate with each other and negotiate their speed and
safety distance, highway capacity could increase by up to a factor of 4”
Self‐driving cars will be a potent weapon to combat climate change
“driverless cars use roads more efficiently (fewer emissions because of less road
construction), can reduce emissions by driving in convoys and don’t induce traffic jams”
Create more free time
“allowing drivers to safely use the journey time however they wish, from reading a book,
to surfing the web, watching a film or just chatting face to face with other passengers”
3
How autonomous is autonomous?
4
When?
Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030
Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick, has
indicated in a tweet that he expects
Uber’s fleet to be driverless by 2030.
The service will be so inexpensive and
ubiquitous that car ownership will be
obsolete.
NuTonomy to provide self‐driving taxi
services in Singapore by 2018, expand to 10
cities around the world by 2020
5Fully autonomous vehicles could be ready by 2025, predicts Daimler chairman
Jaguar and Land‐Rover to provide fully autonomous cars by 2024
Tesla CEO expects true autonomous driving by 2023
BMW to launch autonomous iNext in 2021
First autonomous Toyota to be available in 2020
Driverless cars coming to showrooms by 2020 says Nissan’s CEO
Ford CEO expects fully autonomous cars by 2020
Volkswagen expects first self driving cars on the market by 2019
Delphi and MobilEye to provide off‐the‐shelf self‐driving system by 2019
Sergey Brin plans to have Google driverless car in the market by 2018
Next generation Audi A8 capable of fully autonomous driving in 2017
6CAVs are on the way
What do road users think?
Schoettle and Sivak (2014) surveyed 1596 respondents across
the UK, the US, and Australia
Familiarity: only 25% of respondents had heard about CAVs
Expected benefits: highest proportion of respondents (85.9%) expected
fewer accidents (10% said mobility, and 6% said environmental benefits)
Price: 25% of respondents were willing to pay more than they do now for CAV
technology ($500 in US, $455 in UK, and $394 in Aus)
45.5% (US), 44.8% (UK), and 42.6% (AUS) of respondents did not
want to pay anything extra
7What do road users think?
KPMG focus group study of 32 participants in three US cities (2013)
Willingness: 23% of respondents in California willing to drive in CAVs,
lower willingness in Illinois and New Jersey ‐respondents describing
themselves as having “a passion to drive” were more willing to drive in CAVs
Respondents became more interested in CAVs when they were provided incentives,
e.g., designated lane for CAVs, and much shorter commute times
Expected benefits: female respondents noted self‐driving would allow them
to focus on children, enjoy an evening out without worrying about having a
drink with dinner, and mobility benefits for disabled
Male participants were more likely to resist because of being forced to stay in
a lane and follow speed limits
Price: The oldest participants (60+ year‐old) and the youngest (21–34 year‐olds)
expressed the highest willingness to pay in order to obtain self‐driving technologies
8What do road users think?
Payre, Cestac, & Delhomme (2013) survey of 421 French drivers
(153 males)
Willingness: 68% of respondents were willing to drive in CAVs
71% would be interested in using CAVs when impaired
Respondents were most interested in using CAVs on monotonous highway
drives, in stressful traffic congestion and for automatic parking
Men had more positive attitudes towards CAVs than women
Price: Respondents were willing to spend on average 1,624€ ($2,484 NZD) beyond
the price of their current car to purchase a CAV, (min = 0, max = 10,000€)
9What do road users think?
Bansal, Kockelman, & Singh (2016) Qualtrics survey of 347 drivers
in Austin, Texas
Willingness: 80% had heard of Google’s self‐driving car
30% showed interest in using CAVs as soon as they are available for mass market sales
19% of respondents were not at all interested in owning Level 4 CAVs
Expected benefits: reduction in crashes seen as greatest CAV benefit (63%)
31% of respondents did not believe that CAVs would relieve traffic congestion
70% of respondents would like to ride in CAVs on high‐speed highways, and congested
traffic, while only 46% would let the vehicles drive themselves on city streets
Price: Respondents were willing to spend on average $7,253 USD ($10,154 NZD) beyond
the price of their current car to purchase a CAV
Only 15% and 3% of respondents expected to use Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs)
once a week at a cost of $2 per mile and $3 per mile, respectively. 41% would use SAVs
once a week or more at $1 per mile
(Respondents told that Taxis in Austin cost $2.50‐$3.50 per mile and Uber $1.50 per mile)
10Current Study: Will Kiwis want to use CAVs?
Aim: To explore New Zealand drivers’ views and attitudes about CAVs
Method: 1,067 respondents (55% female; avg. age 49.1; 16‐88 years)
responded to a Qualtrics online questionnaire focusing on:
• Knowledge and current use of automated driving technologies
• Perceptions of enjoyment, safety and interest related to various levels of
automation
• When and why they would use a fully automated vehicle
• Perceptions of the risks and benefits of CAVs
• Willingness to pay
11Familiarity
Nearly all respondents had heard about the Google self‐driving car,
less had heard of other common types of driver assistance
95% 90%
71%
Percentage
58%
12Familiarity
Having heard of the technology is not the same as having used it
13Willingness
Willingness to use CAVs is situational
On which occasions would you like to drive in a fully automated car?
73%
64%
Percentage
59%
56%
41%
28%
18% 19%
14Willingness
Willingness to use CAVs is situational
Where would you would let your car drive itself?
64% 66%
Percentage
51%
47%
44%
40%
4%
Nowhere Rural state Scenic Town with Town with Parking Motorway
highways areas light traffic heavy traffic
15Willingness
I would be willing to use a fully automated car …
100
Strongly agree
90
Agree
80
Percentage “agree”
Disagree
70 Strongly disagree
60 (not shown – “neutral”)
50
40
30
20
10
Percentage “disagree”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
If I was over the If I was tired If the car belonged If the car had no Put my children in a
drink drive limit to someone else steering wheel CAV that would take
(taxi) them to school
16Willingness
I would be willing to let my car connect to …
Strongly agree
100 Agree
90 Disagree
80 Strongly disagree
Percentage “agree”
70 (not shown – “neutral”)
60
50
40
30
20
10
Percentage “disagree”
0
10
20
30
40
receive traffic receive info send and receive send to road send info to send info to
info and about road to other vehicles maintenance vehicle insurance
alternate routes works organisations developers companies
17Reasons
Why would you like to drive a fully automated vehicle? …
Percentage
48%
41%
37%
32% 31%
26%
22%
I could do It is safer It would It would It would be It would I would
other things reduce traffic use less environmentally speed up not drive
fuel friendly my trip a CAV
18Benefits
Percentage “some” or “significant” benefit What are the potential benefits of CAVs? …
90%
81%
77%
71%
19Concerns
How concerned are you about …
Percentage “worried” or “very worried”
83% 85%
74% 76%
70%
37%
20Accessibility
Rate the degree to which an autonomous vehicle
would improve your access to…
21Price
Percentage How much more would you pay for a fully automated car?
31%
23%
20% 20%
4%
2%
22How safe?
Imagine scenarios 100
90
80
70 Very safe
60 Somewhat safe
Slightly unsafe
Imagine driving around town on routine 50 Very unsafe
Percentage
40 (not shown – “neutral”)
30
errands. Steering is controlled by an 20
10
0
Automatic Lane Keeping System, and 10
20
30
speed controlled by Adaptive Cruise 40
Routine
errands
Control (the driver doesn't have to worry
about exceeding the speed limit or How likely to take back control?
100
maintaining distance to the car in front). 90
80
70
Compared to a completely manual car … 60
50
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Percentage
Slightly unlikely
40 Not at all likely
30 (not shown – “neutral”)
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
Routine
errands
23How safe?
Imagine scenarios 100
90
80
70 Very safe
60 Somewhat safe
Slightly unsafe
Imagine driving on a motorway or open 50 Very unsafe
Percentage
40 (not shown – “neutral”)
30
roads such that driving is hands‐free. 20
10
0
Steering is controlled by an Automatic 10
20
30
Lane Keeping System, and speed… 40
Routine Motorway/
errands open road
How likely to take back control?
100
90
80
70
60 Very likely
50 Somewhat likely
Percentage
Slightly unlikely
40 Not at all likely
30 (not shown – “neutral”)
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
Routine Motorway/
errands open road
24How safe?
Imagine scenarios 100
90
80
70 Very safe
60 Somewhat safe
Imagine needing to travel to a busy 50 Slightly unsafe
Very unsafe
Percentage
40 (not shown – “neutral”)
30
urban area. Once you telephone or 20
10
text a request for a ride, a fully 0
10
20
automated car comes to collect 30
40
Routine Motorway/ Automated
you, all you need to do is provide errands open road taxi
the address of your destination. How likely to take back control?
100
Billing is automatic and you are 90
80
not in control at any time. 70
60
50
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Percentage
Slightly unlikely
40 Not at all likely
30 (not shown – “neutral”)
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
Routine Motorway/ Automated
errands open road taxi
25Summary I
Most NZ drivers have heard of self driving cars, but other driver
assistance technology is not well understood (or used)
Greatest perceived benefit was potential reduction in crashes
(same as overseas studies)
Increased access to employment, services, and recreation also
seen as a significant benefit
Highest likely use of automation was for motorway and parking
or when driver was tired or impaired by alcohol or drugs
(same as overseas studies)
26Summary II
Around half of the respondents thought that using a fully
autonomous vehicle would be enjoyable and safe, but also
thought they would be likely to switch to manual control
Approximately 1 in 5 said they would not use a CAV
Vehicle data connectivity was generally acceptable,
except with insurers
Willingness to pay was very low
27Conclusion
Widespread belief that CAVs will be safer
“…it is not clear a priori whether computational speed, constant
vigilance, and lack of distractability of self‐driving vehicles would
trump the predictive experience of middle‐aged drivers”.
(Sivak & Schoettle, 2015)
The Paradox of Automation
As the level of automation is increased, so
are the consequences of each human error
Other benefits of CAVs (efficiency, economy, accessibility)
need emphasis in order to maintain wide‐spread acceptance
(in the face of inevitable collisions)
Integration of CAVs with other road users is key to success
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