Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Nowcasting Applications

               African SWIFT Summer
                        School
                               Morné Gijben
                       morne.gijben@weathersa.co.za
                            Weather Research
                      South African Weather Service

                Doc Ref no: RES-PPT-SWIFT-20190729-GIJ002-001.1
2020/01/10                                                        1
Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
What is the difference
     between nowcasting and
          forecasting?

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Definition of time ranges

• Nowcasting: A description of current weather parameters and 0
  to 2 hours’ description of forecast weather parameters
• Very short-range weather forecasting: Up to 12 hours’
  description of weather parameters
• Short-range weather forecasting: Beyond 12 hours’ and up to
  72 hours’ description of weather parameters
• Medium-range weather forecasting: Beyond 72 hours’ and up
  to 240 hours’ description of weather parameters
• Extended-range weather forecasting: Beyond 10 days’ and up
  to 30 days’ description of weather parameters. Usually averaged
  and expressed as a departure from climate values for that period

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Definition of time ranges
• Long-range forecasting: From 30 days up to two years
• Month forecast: Description of averaged weather parameters
  expressed as a departure (deviation, variation, anomaly) from
  climate values for that month at any lead-time
• Seasonal forecast: Description of averaged weather parameters
  expressed as a departure from climate values for that season at
  any lead-time
• Climate forecasting: Beyond two years
• Climate variability prediction: Description of the expected
  climate parameters associated with the variation of interannual,
  decadal and multi-decadal climate anomalies
• Climate prediction: Description of expected future climate
  including the effects of both natural and human influences

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Why do we need nowcasting?
• Mandate of all weather services globally is to save lives and
  prevent losses
• Monitoring weather events in real time and where they will
  move to in the next 2 hours (nowcasting) should lead to
  warnings to the public on the action which is needed to save
  lives and prevent damage to property
• Nowcasting can warn the public on the impact of severe
  weather events (such as local flooding or wind/hail etc)
• International trends are focusing more and nowcasting due
  to the impact this has on people

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
• On the nowcasting to very short range forecasting time scale
  (first 12 hours):
   – we rely heavily on remote sensing since this gives us real
      time information
   – This is used for warnings
• On the short to medium (and longer time scales):
   – NWP/EPS is more important
   – This is used for watches and advisories (more than a day
      ahead)
• Between real time and 12 hours we can make use of remote
  sensing blended/combined with NWP to extend the remote
  sensing tools

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Improved observation of real time
            events:
What can satellite provide to us for
     nowcasting purposes?

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
The Meteosat Satellite channels
                    Channel             Band (μm)
                    VIS0.6              0.56 – 0.71
                    VIS0.8              0.74 – 0.88
                    NIR1.6              1.50 – 1.78
                     IR3.9              3.40 – 4.20
                     IR8.7              8.30 – 9.10
                    IR10.8             9.80 – 11.80
                    IR12.0             11.00 – 13.00
                    WV6.2               5.35 – 7.15
                    WV7.3               6.85 – 7.85
                     IR9.7              9.38 – 9.94
                    IR13.4             12.40 – 14.40
                     HRV                 0.4 – 1.1

~3 km data sampling intervals, except HRV (~1 km)
Images every 15 minutes
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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Single Channels

             IR10.8 channel

                                   • Gives some idea of the
                                     type of clouds
                                   • Bright white color cold
                                     temperatures
                                   • Grey colors warmer
                                     clouds

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Nowcasting Applications - African SWIFT Summer School Morné Gijben Weather Research - GCRF African SWIFT
Color enhancement of IR imagery
• A color palette can be added to IR channel displays to enable forecasters
  to see cloud top temperatures in color
• This color palette makes it easier to see cloud top features
• Since tall, cold clouds can be associated with severe weather, this is of
  interest to us all.

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Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms
Definitions:

Embedded warm area (spot):
   • smaller region of higher BT,
   • enclosed by a (more or less) continuous region of lower temperatures,
   • forms downwind of overshooting tops or in vicinity of elevated domes.

The cold-U/V and cold-ring:
    • features are cold parts of a regular storm anvil only,
    • surrounding longer-lived (~ 30-40 minutes at least) and
    • larger-sized embedded warm areas.
    • It is the character and form of the embedded warm area which determines if the storm
       is labeled as a cold-ring-shaped or cold-U/V-shaped one.

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Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms

• Short-lived embedded warm spots/areas (~ 5-20 minutes)

    •     More frequent
    •     Do not indicate possible severe weather

• Long-lived embedded warm spots/areas (~ 1-2 hours)

    •     Do indicate possible severe weather

Documented cases showed a very close correlation with severe weather or supercells.
However, this feature alone does not automatically classify a storm as a supercell !!!

 If observed, it indicates a possible severity of the storm, it is not a prove of the severity!

    2020/01/10                                                                           12
Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms

•    Mechanism of cold-U/V and cold-ring formation still not quite well
     (unambiguously) explained.

•    Both types are most likely generated by similar mechanisms.

    It seems that their occurrence is supported by some specific airmass types:

       A strong thermal inversion above the tropopause.

       Upper-level wind shear (cold rings typical for lower shear, cold-U/V for
        higher values of wind shear.

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Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms
•   Embedded warm area (spot) - part of the storm above the tropopause, with
    warmer temperatures due to the temperature inversion above the tropopause.

•   The highest tops are located at the upwind side of the cold ring, and the central
    warm spot develops with time downwind of these, above the stratiform part of the
    anvil.

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Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms
HRV             Meteosat-9 (MSG2) 15:00 UTC            IR 10.8 BT ENH

                                                   DISTANT WARM AREA
                                                         (DWA)

                              CLOSE-IN WARM AREA
                                     (CWA)

                                                              COLD-U

2020/01/10             26 May 2007, Germany                         15
Cold-U/V & Cold-ring shaped storms
 HRV             Meteosat-8 (MSG1) 13:45 UTC             IR 10.8 BT ENH

                               CENTRAL WARM SPOT
                                     (CWS)

                                                           COLD RING

              25 June 2006, Czech Republic and Austria
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MSG Channel Differences Useful to Monitor
             Convection

Channel Diff.     Application
IR8.7 - IR10.8    Day/Night: optical thickness, phase
IR10.8 - IR12.0   Day/Night: optical thickness
NIR1.6 - VIS0.6   Day: phase (ice index), particle size
IR3.9 - IR10.8    Day: particle size
                  Night: particle size (only for warm clouds)
WV6.2 - IR10.8    Day/Night: overshooting tops

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IR10.8 – IR12.0

• Uses two MSG channels (IR 10.8 and 12.0)

• Identify moisture ridges and drylines

• BTD IR10.8-12.0 gives indication of total moisture content

• Focuses on surface features

                                               recommended by EUMETSAT

                                Dry            Moist
         0600Z               0 to +1 K       +2 to +4 K
         1200Z               0 to +2 K       +4 to +6 K

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IR10.8 – IR12.0

                    MOIST

              DRY

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IR10.8 – IR12.0
• 09:00 UTC                        • 13:00 UTC

                     MOIST

               DRY

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IR10.8 – IR12.0 limitations

• Clear skies

• Influenced by diurnal variations

• Low moisture hot surface = high moisture cold surface

• Does not work at night

• Does not work in high mountain areas

• Contaminated by sandy surfaces

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MSG Red-Green-Blue(RGB)
         combinations

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Standard RGBs

RGB Composite         Applications                                 Time

RGB 10-09,09-07,09:   Dust, Clouds (thickness, phase), Contrails   Day & Night
                      Fog, Ash, SO2, Low-level Humidity

RGB 05-06,08-09,05    Severe Cyclones, Jets, PV Analysis           Day & Night

RGB 10-09,09-04,09:   Clouds, Fog, Contrails, Fires                Night
RGB 02,04r,09:        Clouds, Convection, Snow, Fog, Fires         Day

RGB 05-06,04-09,03-01: Severe Convection                           Day

RGB 02,03,04r:        Snow, Fog                                    Day

RGB 03,02,01:         Vegetation, Snow, Smoke, Dust, Fog           Day

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RGB 05-06, 04-09, 03-01 (Convective Storms)

               R = Difference WV6.2 - WV7.3
               G = Difference IR3.9 - IR10.8
               B = Difference NIR1.6 - VIS0.6

               Applications:   Severe Convective Storms
               Area:           Full MSG Viewing Area
               Time:           Day-Time

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RGB 05-06,04-09,03-01: Interpretation of Color

 Deep precipitating cloud   Deep precipitating cloud    Thin Cirrus cloud         Thin Cirrus cloud
 (precip. not necessarily   (Cb cloud with strong
  reaching the ground)      updrafts and severe         (large ice particles)     (small ice particles)
                            weather)*

 - high-level cloud         - high-level cloud
 - large ice particles      - small ice particles

                            *or thick, high-level lee
                            cloudiness with small ice
                            particles

                         Ocean                                                  Land

      2020/01/10                                                                                          25
RGB 05-06, 04-09, 03-01 (Convective Storms)

                                                         Thin Ice Cloud
                                                           (small ice)

                                                                     Maputo

               Thin Ice Cloud
                 (large ice)

                                Thick Ice Cloud   Thick Ice Cloud
                                  (large ice)       (small ice)

                   MSG-1, 6 November 2004, 12:00 UTC, RGB 05-06, 04-09, 03-01

  2020/01/10                                                                    26
Overshooting Top RGB
• Overshooting tops are the most intense part of thunderstorms
• This is where the strongest updrafts are and thus also
  possible severe weather
• To identify this part of the thunderstorm can help with severe
  weather warnings.

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Overshooting Top RGB Recipe

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Example Overshooting Top RGB

                               = Overshooting Tops

             Airmass RGB          Overshooting Top RGB
14 September 2010, 19:45 UTC
(Hurricane Julia)                      Slide by Jochen Kerkmann
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Satellite based instability indices

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Instability Indices
• Why do we need to measure instability in the
  atmosphere?
• How do we do it?
• Is this good enough?
• Typical indices?

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Instability Indices
• The Global Humanitarian Forum states:
    • “Developing countries, which are most likely to suffer the brunt of
      climate change impacts, have the least number of ground-level
      weather data observation systems, the critical basis for efficient
      delivery of weather information.
    • Despite covering a fifth of the world's total land area, Africa has the
      least developed land-based weather observation system of all
      continents, and one that is in a deteriorating state.
    • Many existing weather stations do not operate properly, or do not
      operate at all.
    • WMO estimates that in an ideal scenario, 10 000 weather stations
      should be operating in Africa. Currently, there are only around 744
      stations operational, less than a quarter of which provide observations
      that meet WMO requirements for standard and frequency of data.”

    2020/01/10                                                         32
Upper air ascents world wide

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Typical instability indices

• Lifted Index (LI)
   • A measure of the
     thunderstorm potential which
     takes into account the low
     level moisture availability

• K Index (KI)
   • Large K means a lot of
     moisture available to drive
     cumulus cloud

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1. Sounding based instability indices

• The analysis of the atmosphere
  during times of thunderstorms has
  prompted meteorologists to develop
  parameters that would indicate
  whether or not the conditions are
  favourable for thunderstorm
  development.
• These parameters describe how
  unstable the atmosphere is or
  indicate the likelihood of convection.
• Traditionally, these indices are
  taken from temperature and
  humidity soundings by radiosondes.

    2020/01/10                                 35
3. The Global Instability Index (GII)
• As radiosondes are only of very limited temporal and
  spatial resolution there is a demand for satellite-
  derived indices.
• The basis of the GII methodology is:
    • Together with the satellite measured brightness
      temperatures and some a priori information of the
      atmospheric profile (from the Numerical Weather
      Prediction model) a local profile is derived, and instability
      indices are computed from this local profile.
• One of the products disseminated by EUMETSAT to all MSG
  receivers.

   2020/01/10                                                  36
• MSG channels 5,6,( WV) 7,9,10 and 11 (IR)
  are currently used for calculations
• The GII product consists of a set of instability indices
  which describe the layer stability of the atmosphere:
   • K index,
   • Lifted Index,
   • Precipitable Water
• The retrieval of these parameters from satellite data
  is only possible under cloud-free conditions.

   2020/01/10                                         37
MSG MPEF Product: Global Instability Index
                 GII

                             10

                                  16                        Example of a total precipitable
                        16                  14
                                                            water retrieval, co-located
                       12                                   radiosonde observations are
                                                 13   13
                                                            also shown
                                                       21
                  34

                                  41                        INFORMATION about
59
       52
                                                            PW for the
      35
                                                 14         entire African
                                       15

                                                            continent!

     2020/01/10                                                                          38
Example: 26 October 2006
• High K-Index over South Africa

                 26 October 2006, 0800 UTC

   2020/01/10                                39
Example: 26 October 2006
Lightning Observations 2.5 Hours Later – KI added lead time!

         SAWS Lightning Observations and MSG HRV Image 26 October 2006, 1030 UTC

   2020/01/10                                                                      40
Nowcasting SAF software

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SAF’s
• Satellite Application Facilities (SAF’s) are dedicated centers
  of excellence for processing satellite data, utilizing specialist
  expertise from the European Union Member States.

   2020/01/10                                                  42
SAF’s

                     The     Nowcasting     SAF
                     started in February 1997
                     aiming to produce the
                     software to deal with the
                     Nowcasting     and     Very
                     Short Range Forecasting
                     using the characteristics of
                     the MSG SEVIRI data.

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Nowcasting SAF products

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Nowcasting SAF products

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Nowcasting SAF products

       Input data
       1. Satellite data – Compulsory
       2. NWP data – Mandatory for most products
       3. Observational data such as lightning data - Optional

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Cloud products

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Cloud Mask
• Simple product that identifies cloudy/cloud free areas
• All types of clouds
• Not so useful for nowcasting as single image

   2020/01/10                                       48
Cloud Mask
• Extrapolations for next 90-minute available
• This can be useful to estimate where clouds will move.
  16:45 Observed                    18:00 Nowcast

                   18:00 Observed

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Cloud Type
• Cloud type identifies clouds based on transparency and
  height.
• Can be extrapolated 90-minutes ahead in time.

   2020/01/10                                              50
Cloud Type
      16:45 Observed
• C                                     18:00 Nowcast

                       18:00 Observed

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Instability Products

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• Instability Indices gives an indication where thunderstorms
  are possible.

                K Index
                                        Lifted Index

   2020/01/10                                              53
Convection Products

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Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms (RDT)
• The RDT product was developed by Meteo-France in the
  framework of the EUMETSAT SAF in support to nowcasting

• Using mainly geostationary satellite data, it provides
  information on clouds related to significant convective
  systems, from meso-scale (200 to 2000 km) down to smaller
  scales (tenth of km).

• The objectives of RDT are twofold:
  – The identification, monitoring and tracking of intense
    convective system clouds
  – The detection of rapidly developing convective cells

   2020/01/10                                                55
Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms
• The RDT makes use of an object-
  orientated approach.

• Adds value to a satellite image by
  characterizing convective systems
  with various parameters of
  interest:
    •   Motion vector (speed and direction)
    •   Cooling and expansion rate
    •   Cloud top height and temperature
    •   Phase of the storm
    •   Rain rate
    •   Etc.

• Associated time-series of these
  parameters.

    2020/01/10                                56
Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms
• There are 3 stages in the process:

  1. The detection of cloud systems
       • The detection algorithm defines “cells” which represents cloud
         systems

  2. The tracking of cloud systems
       •        The tracking algorithm is mainly built on the overlapping between
                cells in two successive images. The previous cells are moved in
                the speed and direction analyzed.

  3. The discrimination of convective cloud systems
       •        The goal of the discrimination method is to identify the
                convective RDT objects among all cloud cells.

   2020/01/10                                                              57
Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms
• The main and non-optional satellite channel is IR10.8 μm (used for
  detection, tracking and discrimination). Additionally WV6.2, WV7.3, IR8.7
  and IR12.0 μm channels are used for convective discrimination.

• Other SAF-NWC products allow to establish a cloud mask (to operate
  RDT detection only on cloudy areas) and to describe RDT attributes
  (pressure and temperature at the cloud top, cloud type, Convective Rain
  Rate)

• NWP data can be used as instability masks, improving the detection of
  warm systems by RDT.

• Lightning data, if available in real time, greatly contribute to the
  discrimination of convective systems.

    2020/01/10                                                           58
Example RDT

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Example RDT

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Example RDT

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RDT Nowcasts
      15, 30, 45 and 60 minute nowcasts available (forecast tracks)

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Convection Initiation

• Provides probability of convection initiation in the next 30-minutes (ie the
  likelihood of convection to develop)

    2020/01/10                                                            63
Rainfall Products

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Rainfall Estimation - CRR
• Convective Rainfall Rate (CRR) product developed in the SAF NWC
  context, is a Nowcasting tool that provides information on convective,
  and stratiform associated to convection from MSG-SEVIRI channels.
• CRR uses either 2 or 3 of the MSG SEVIRI channels:
    • Two dimensional matrices with IR108 and (IR108 – WV062)
    • Three dimensional matrices with IR108, (IR108 – WV062) and
      VIS006
• The empirical relationship than the higher and thicker are the clouds the
  higher is the probability of occurrence and the intensity of precipitation is
  used in the CRR algorithm.
• Information about cloud top height and about cloud thickness can be
  obtained, respectively, from the infrared brightness temperature (IR) and
  from the visible reflectance's (VIS)

    2020/01/10                                                            65
Rainfall Estimation - CRR
• IR-WV brightness temperature difference is a useful parameter for
  extracting deep convective cloud with heavy rainfall. Negatives values of
  the IR-WV brightness temperature difference have been shown to
  correspond with convective cloud tops that are at or above the tropopause
• To take into account the influence of environmental and orographic effects
  on the precipitation distribution, some corrections can be applied to the
  basic CRR value, based on input from numerical weather prediction
  models (ECMWF):
    • the moisture correction,
    • the cloud top growth/decaying rates or evolution correction
    • the cloud top temperature gradient correction
    • the parallax correction
    • the orographic correction
• At the end of the process CRR product produces information on the
  instantaneous rain rate in mm/h in each pixel of the image.

    2020/01/10                                                         66
Example CRR

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CRR Example

             CRR                 Rain gauges

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6 Oct 2014 0600-1100 UTC: T/S over Namibia

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CRR – 27 July 2019

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CRR – 27 July 2019
   16:30 Observed                    16:30 Nowcast

                    18:00 Observed

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Probability of Precipitation
Probability of precipitation in cloud, can also be extrapolated up to 90-minutes ahead

    2020/01/10                                                                  72
Summary
• Satellite observations provide useful tools for nowcasting
  and very short-range forecasting especially in data sparse
  regions such as Africa.
• Individual channels provide some information on
  thunderstorms.
• Color-enhanced channels provide even more detail and cold
  ring/u-shaped storms can be an indicator of severe storms.
• Channel differences can also be very useful to identify
  certain weather features including thunderstorms and the
  areas where they can develop.
• RGB’s also provide easier visualizations of thunderstorms to
  assist in nowcasting.

   2020/01/10                                             73
Summary
• Satellite together with NWP can provide instability indices to
  nowcast/forecast where thunderstorms can develop.
• The nowcasting SAF software developed in Europe provides
  sophisticated software for nowcasting purposes with several
  products available.
• The RDT product detects, tracks, discriminates and provides
  nowcasts of rapidly developing and intense thunderstorms.
• The Convection Initiation product provides the probability of
  thunderstorm development
• The CRR product provides rainfall estimates in
  thunderstorms useful for the monitoring and determining the
  intensity of storms.

   2020/01/10                                               74
Thank you

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