Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime - Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation - FIX OUR OIL
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About BudgIT Founded in 2011, BudgIT is a civic organization that applies technology to intersect citizen engagement with institutional improvement, to facilitate societal change. A pioneer in the field of social advocacy melded with technology, BudgIT uses an array of tech tools to simplify the budget and matters of public spending for citizens, with the primary aim of raising standard of transparency and accountability in government. Principal Lead: Gabriel Okeowo Research: Abel Akeni, Adejoke Nafisat Akinbode Document Design & Infographics: Oladipo O. Eniola, Abel Akeni Editor: Shakir Akorede Contact: info@yourbudgit.com, +234 803 727 6668, +234 908 333 1633 Address: 1st Floor, No. 55 Moleye Street, Alagomeji, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria. © 2019 Disclaimer: This document has been produced by BudgIT to provide information on public data issues. BudgIT hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our analytical views that we believe are reliable and factbased. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or views expressed herein by BudgIT for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report.
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation COUNTRY PROFILE Nigeria has a it has the 9th population of 196m people largest gas reserves3 There are at least 87m Nigerians living in extreme poverty1 - many of whom and also the 10th largest crude 2 at least N10tn has been spent on petrol reserves in import subsidy between believe subsidized fuel is the world 2006 and November 20184 the only benefit they get from the government Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, popularly called What is the opportunity cost of subsidy? petrol in this resource-rich country is one product whose price is regulated by the N10trillion can: Nigerian government as its political class fears that increases in the price of petrol and BUILD & EQUIP by extension increase in the cost of living, occasioned by a deregulated price regime, 2,400 units of 1,000-bed could become a flashpoint for mass hospitals across 774 LGAs uprisings and political instability. or 500,000 BudgIT lends its voice to the argument that continuation of petrol price regulation creates safety nests for intractable forms of NEW HOUSES for families through mortgage corruption within the country's subsidy at N20m per house regime implied by price regulation, which deprives the nation of more funds needed or for socio-economic development and also ADDITIONAL 27,000mw discourages investors, who generally prefer a deregulated industry, from investing in the downstream sector especially in the area of of solar powered electricity to the national grid refinery construction and operation. or According to Petroleum Products Pricing EDUCATE & SKILL UP and Regulatory Agency, PPPRA, and Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, between 2006 when the Petroleum 2,000,000 Nigerians with global standard Support Fund, PSF, was set up and 2018, at quality tertiary education and sought-after skills least N10 trillion has been spent on petrol import subsidy. 1. https://www.channelstv.com/2018/06/25/nigeria-overtakes-india-in-worlds-extreme-poverty-ranking/ 2. https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=oil&graph=reserves&display=rank 3. https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=gas&graph=reserves&display=rank 4. BudgIT Research
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 02 A burden on the future With no strategic framework for the removal of the country’s petrol subsidy program and a population expected to balloon to 398 million5 people by 2050, Nigeria risks carrying the 398m people financial burden of a subsidy program that could drown out development of its other 196m6 people 2050 sectors over the next 15 years. 2018 Nigeria's Subsidy Expenditure & Transfers Nigeria spent at least N10trillion* $10.85bn was transferred from Nigeria's on subsidy Foreign Excess Crude Account for in the past 13 years subsidy payments between 2011 (2006 - 2018) and 2014 Source: PPPRA, NNPC Source: Federal Ministry of Finance, "Summary of the Analysis of Foreign Excess Crude Account from 2011 to 20th May, 2015" 13-year breakdown of Nigeria's expenditure on petrol import subsidy7 N2.11tn N1.36tn N1.32tn N1.22tn N1.19tn N667bn N631bn N654bn N469bn N272bn N257bn N145bn N24bn 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* Source: Daily Trust, NNPC Monthly Report *From NNPC's Monthly Report only 5. https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2050/ 6. https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2018/ 7. https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/nigeria-spent-n9tr-on-fuel-subsidy-in-10-years-pppra.html
03 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation Petrol Price in Nigeria: What are the key cost drivers? The price per barrel of crude oil plays a N305 to $1 in 201810. Within the same critical role in the surge in petrol prices being period, the price of petrol surged by 34,424% a major factor of production. Crude oil prices from N0.42 per litre in 1977 to a regulated shot up by 713.4% from $12.54 per barrel8 price of N145 per litre in 2018. in January 1977 to a peak of $102 per barrel in September 2013 and then dropped Our analysis shows a pearson's correlation to $61.3 per barrel in 2018. In the last 41 coefficient11 of 0.92 between Petrol Price and years, the exchange rate of the Nigerian Naira-USD Exchange Rate over a period of naira fell by 48,313% (that is, the amount of 16 selected years from 1977, indicating a Naira needed to purchase a single dollar very strong relationship between both increased) from9 N0.63 to $1 in 1977 to variables. Crude oil price shocks affect local petrol prices CRUDE OIL PRICES SHOT UP BY 713.4% between 1977 to 2013 creating an upward surge in the total cost of production for refined petrol Each time Nigeria's Naira is devalued, imports become more expensive. Nigeria's continous dependence on petrol importation means that local petrol prices will continue to suffer from exposure to exchange rate volatility. As a result, subsidy bill required to keep petrol price at current regulated levels can be expected to balloon irrespective of the government or political party in power when next Nigeria's Naira undergoes another devaluation. 8. US Imports of Crude Oil https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/petr.pdf 9. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GOVPUB-T63_100-45728fcb131fefb32e2376c70c60690a/pdf/GOVPUB-T63_100-45728fcb131fefb32e2376c70c60690a.pdf 10. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/exrate.asp?year=2018&month=11 11. BudgIT Research
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 04 Petrol Price per liter12 (1977 - 2016) The price of petrol increased by more than 34,000% from N0.42/liter in 1975 to N145/liter in 2018 N/Liter N145/liter 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 N0.42/liter 1977 1978 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2012 2016 Source: Fuel Subsidy Corruption and the Illusions of Economic Reconstruction in Nigeria Crude oil price per barrel13 (1977 - 2016) % Change in Petrol Price % Change in Crude oil price $/barrel 140 120 $109.45/barrel 100 80 60 40 20 1977 1978 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2012 2016 Source: US Imports of Crude Oil 12. http://www.mcser.org/journal/index.php/ajis/article/viewFile/5993/5764 13. US Imports of Crude Oil https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/petr.pdf
05 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation % Change in Petrol Price vs % Change in Naira-USD Exchange Rate14 % Change in Petrol Price % Change in NGN-USD Exchange Rate 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -100% Source: BudgIT Research How exposed is Nigeria's petrol price to exchange rate volatility? Nigeria currently imports Poor refinery capacity 91% utilization as low as of its daily petrol needs leaving 9.88% is the primary reason local prices exposed to shocks Nigeria continues to from exchange rate fluctuations import petrol 13-Month trend in Nigeria's Petrol Supply15 'millions Imported Petrol Locally Refined Petrol 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Source: NNPC Monthly Operational & Performance Report 14. BudgIT Research 15. NNPC Monthly Operational & Performance Report, November 2018
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 06 Legal and political dilemma of subsidy removal Petrol is one of the products listed in the neighbouring countries - which is big Price Control Act 1977. The Act provides enough to incentivise smuggling of strict penalties for anyone who sells above subsidized products to neighbouring border the regulated price. However, no marketer towns. According to NNPC, there are 2,201 will import a product to run at a loss due to petrol stations in Nigeria’s porous border price regulations that do not take into towns and coastal frontiers16, with a considerations the realities of market forces. combined fuel tank capacity of 144.9 million Withdrawal of marketers from petrol litres. However, the population in this area importation often means petrol scarcity and does not warant the presecence of such posibble civil and political unrest. To avoid tank capacity. Like Nigeria, Venezuela, political catastrophe, successive (which has the lowest petrol price in the governments have had to sustain subsidy to world of N3.65/liter as a result of subsidy) ensure marketers find petrol importation also faced similar problems with smuggling, and distribution somewhat profitable. There with official government figures estimating are two types of subsidy the government that the country loses at least $18bn provides: annually17 to smugglers who sell Venezuela's cheap petrol in Colombia and 1. Petrol Import Subsidy: other neigbhouring countries. In this program, the government pays petrol Past governments have tried to end the marketers for the difference between the country’s petrol import subsidy program, regulated price of imported petrol and the however, their moves have been fiercely Expected Open Market Price, EOMP, resisted by citizens who benefit from low estimated by the Petroleum Products prices. In the case of Bamidele Aturu versus Pricing and Regulatory Agency, PPPRA, as Attorney-General of the Federation18 the an import subsidy. This program is handled Federal High Court declared illegal and through the Petroleum Subsidy Fund, PSF. unconstitutional the policy decision of the federal government to deregulate the Import subsidy creates petrol price arbitrage downstream sector which would have led to - the differential between the regulated the removal of petrol subsidy. price in Nigeria and the high petrol prices in Subsidy incentivizes smugglers Citizens & NGOs resist subsidy removal Nigeria loses significant amount of its subsidized fuel to smugglers who sell it at market prices in neighbouring countries Civil society often Venezeula loses RESISTS Say No to SUBSIDY $18bn Subsidy Removal! REMOVAL TO SMUGGLERS their argument is for the annually who sell that government to fight country's subsidized corrpution in the program petrol in Colombia and instead of ending subsidy neigbhouring countries 16. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/298049-regulate-petrol-supply-to-border-communities-ppmc-tells-marketers.html 17. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45179671 18. https://www.thecable.ng/buhari-decieved-nigerians-says-falana
07 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 2. Petrol Price Equalization subsidy: Petrol sold in states near coastal regions Despite equalization (specifically Lagos ports) like Ogun, Ondo subsidy, there is uneven (etc) are typically cheaper than those sold in petrol price distribution states that are inland (e.g. Kano, Borno etc) along inland regions due to the additional cost of transportation to inland states when petroleum products pipeline infrastructure leading to these State Average petrol price states are compromised or experience failure. The Nigerian government tries to solve this problem by covering the extra cost of transportation to oil marketers with an equalization subsidy, so that citizens in all parts of the country can buy petrol at the regulated price. Unfortunately, this form of subsidy has failed to stabilize prices of petrol across inland states like Borno, Taraba etc. According to the PMS Price Watch published by the country’s National Bureau for Statistics, NBS, for July 2018, nearly all inland regions purchased petrol above the Fixed Price of N145 per liter despite allocation for PMS equalization subsidy - with Borno, Taraba and Bayelsa recording the highest petrol prices at N155.00 per Source: NBS PMS Price Watch, July 2018 liter, N151.82 per liter and N151.67 per liter respectively19. #AskQuestions Are citizens the ultimate beneficiaries Why do citizens still buy petrol above of the country's equalization subsidy 1 regulated prices despite huge program or vested interests? equalization subsidy expenditure? Which government has the political 2 will to scrap or reform the equalization subsidy program? 19. https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/11509-PMSREPORTJuly2018-proshare.pdf
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 08 Nigeria's N382bn Subsidy Scandal: Will justice ever be served? In 2006, Nigeria had only six (6) fuel government and some of those implicated in importers, yet by 2011, this number had the probe 7 years ago, as many of them are skyrocketed to 140. As at 31st December yet to receive any real punishment. Indeed, 2011, it was established that the total news reports abound that some of these oil amount paid as subsidy in that year was companies are being rewarded with juicy N2.587* trillion, amounting to more than contracts as the Nigerian National 900% increase over the appropriated sum Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, granted of N245 billion for that year20. The outcry them rights to participate in the 2017/2018 that greeted this stunning observation led to crude oil trade where they are allowed to lift a series of probes initiated by the country’s 32,000 barrels per day of crude oil21. Federal Government. More than 20 companies were identified as being A total of N382** billion was lost to the complicit after investigations were launched, subsidy scandal as probe committees set up and several of them are still facing criminal discovered. This N382 billion lost could have charges in Nigerian courts for receiving provided 15,280 small businesses with hugely inflated subsidy claims. However, long-term, collateral-free, startup capital insinuations are rife that there may be a loans of N25 million each; this could then be collusion between the political elite in re-loaned to others upon repayment. Over N2.58tn 900% increase N245bn over the appropriated sum of N245 billion for that approporiated actual subsidy year triggered a probe. subsidy payment payment for Justice is yet to be served for 2011 2011 to many of those indicted. N382bn can fund N382bn 15,280 lost to subsidy scandal small businesses as discovered by probe committees set with long-term, collateral-free startup up. Some marketers never used their capital loans of N25million each; this throughput agreement yet claimed could be reloaned to others upon subsidy repayment *This amount is more than the N2.11trillion reported as subsidy payment by PPPRA for that year (see page 2) **Another presidential committee reviewed the amount lost to the scandal from the initial N422.54bn21 to N382bn 20. http://www.sahara-group.com/docs/hrr.pdf 21. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/docs_download/Technical%20committee%20report%20on%20subsidy%20-%20part%201.pdf
09 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation NNPC’s new role as petrol importer: Should Nigerians be worried? While the petrol marketers have been 1. NNPC may be paying itself subsidy for impugned for their role in the subsidy losses not incurred scandal, they too face genuine problems of their own with the Federal government In June 2017, the Landing cost of PMS was especially with delayed payments of N124.83 per liter with an Expected Open subsidy claims and difficulty in accessing Market Price, EOMP of N144.20 according foreign exchange to import fuel. This led to the Petroleum Products Pricing many marketers to abandon importation of Regulatory Agency, PPPRA23. This is lower petrol leading to long queues at petrol filling than the government’s regulated price of stations and political blowback for the N145 per liter by a margin of +N20.17 per current administration. The administration liter. However, a review of NNPC’s monthly has thus asked NNPC, the nation’s national Financial and Operations Report for June oil company, to intervene and become the 2017 shows that it claimed to have made importer of last resort to ensure that the losses of -N11bn on the sale of petrol and queues disappear. As at December 2017, hence it deducted N11bn as subsidy/under NNPC was responsible for nearly 78% of all recovery before paying the balance revenue petrol imported in that year22. In 2018, this to the country’s FAAC account. figure is closer to 100% of all petrol imported. NNPC wasn’t set up for this 2. Discretionary deductions and importation role and doesn’t have all the expenditure infrastructure to handle importation of nearly 51 million liters of petrol daily, it must NNPC appropriated $1.05bn of revenue be noted. from dividend accruals from the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) Furthermore, NNPC’s reputation in the Limited for handling fuel importation24; this public eye is not necessarily top notch. A definitely includes deductions for under small part of its reputational crisis is due to recovery/subsidy. However, Chapter V, Part largely fictitious claims made by some 1 (E), Section 80(1 to 4) of the Constitution segment of the media, but some part of this of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, says crisis is of its own making as NNPC is often revenue from the federation must be paid found to be economical with the truth. An into the Consolidated Revenue Fund, and example is NNPC’s claim that petrol subsidy funds must be authorised by an no longer exists in the country, whereas it Appropriation Act before being paid out. makes provisions for ‘under-recovery’ - a While the intentions of NNPC may be very necessary condition for subsidy to be paid. good, they are not enough to breach the constitution. If all well intentioned revenue Here are a few things Nigerians, civil society agencies are allowed to break the law, the and the government need to pay attention result will be complete fiscal irresponsibility. to as NNPC becomes the importer of last There is a reason these checks and balances resort for petrol products: exist in the constitution. 22. PPPRA 2017 Annual Performance Report 23. PPPRA 2017 Annual Performance Report 24. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/290842-updated-nnpc-explains-subsidy-says-1-05bn-revolving-fund-with-cbn.html
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 10 3. Subsidy over deductions 4. Risks from Infrastructure gaps Due to little or no oversight over their If NNPC continues to be the sole importer of activities and weak accountability petrol - a task it was not set up to perform - framework, vested interests within NNPC it will have to depend on third parties for may be taking advantage of the subsidy infrastructure needed to handle subsidized program through over deductions as petrol now and in the near future. This pointed out by the Office of the Accountant creates an additional layer of risk - especially General of the Federation. Two significant the risk that subsidized petroleum products cases where this overdeduction occurred could be stolen by its partners. Indeed, N11 are in 2011 and in 2015. In 2011 and 2015, billion25 worth of NNPC’s subsidized petrol NNPC claimed to deduct N844.944 billion went missing from the storage facilities of and N306.917 billion respectively. However, two NNPC partners - MRS and Capital Oil & submissions from the Office of the Gas. NNPC reported that it successfully Accountant-General of the Federation recovered 30 million liters expropriated by report showed that NNPC actually deducted MRS but was not as successful with Capital N981.734 billion and N316.720 billion; a Oil & Gas which was yet to return 82 million cumulative difference of N146.593 billion. liters26 of the 100 million liters it took at the time the incidence was reported. NNPC made N146.59bn N981.7bn actual deductions 2011 initial claim N844.94bn OVER DEDUCTIONS according to a report by the actual N316.7bn accountant general of the 2015 federation in 2011 and 2015 initial N306.9bn 30mLITERS N11bn RECOVERED from MRS successfully WORTH OF PETROL WENT MISSING from the storage faciliteis of two NNPC partners - MRS 82mLITERS and Capital Oil UNRECOVERED from Capital Oil & Gas 25. https://www.nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/738/NNPC-Moves-to-Recover-N11bn-Missing-Petrol-from-Capital-Oil.aspx 26. https://www.nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/738/NNPC-Moves-to-Recover-N11bn-Missing-Petrol-from-Capital-Oil.aspx
11 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation Conclusion The question of continuation of the country's over $10.85bn from its Excess Crude savings petrol subsidy program needs to be Account to sustain subsidy. Of the $180bn addressed decisively. Venezuelan that has accrued to Excess Crude Account government and its citizens played the ostrich since 2004 (which is supposed to be a fiscal and ignored all the warning signs of buffer), less than $249m remains29 as at impending economic doom as its fiscals were 2018. beleaguered by huge subsidy bills while citizens enjoyed the lowest27 petrol price in We believe subsidy needs to be removed. the world of N3.65/liter. Today, Venezuela’s Palliative measures should be provided for economy is in turmoil. Nigeria with the 6th people that will be worse hit by the removal. lowest petrol price globally of N145/liter is Four sectors - Transportation, Power, Health headed in the same direction: struggling with and Education - should be prioritized for a recent 60% currency devaluation crisis in cushion the effects. We also believe that 2016 (from N197:$1 to N305:$1) which funding for cheaper mass transit and increased the country’s subsidy bill, dwindling subsidies to public institutions can be government revenue, weakening demand for targeted for these groups. The challenge is Nigerian crude, low budget credibility and that Nigeria lacks a comprehensive single approximately 69% of its annual revenue database structure to holistically define such a spent on debt servicing28; Nigeria has had to subset of the population. take the desperate measure of withdrawing 27. https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/ 28. https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/10/27/nigerias-terrifying-debt-to-revenue-ratio/ 29. https://www.businessamlive.com/election-spending-nigeria-govt-further-depletes-excess-crude-account-to-249m/
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 12 Recommendations 1. Boost local refining capacity to reduce as the petroleum equalization subsidy the current 91% exposure to petrol exists, the country may continue to importation experience sabotage of its product pipelines, as some vested interests seem to be International development partners (World benefiting from it without delivering value. Bank, IFC, GIZ and DFID) need to work with the government and civil society to design a Perhaps, it's time for Nigerians to realize program to mobilize technical and financial petrol prices at the coastland will always be support for refinery license holders to different from prices at the inlands. ensure refineries under construction become operational. 4. Adopt OpenData Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) contracts NNPC and other agencies in the sector need need to be fully investigated to determine if to be supported to adopt open data the country is getting value for money while principles over the next 5 years. Proactive the findings should be made public. All disclosures and transparency always help to greenfield refinery projects for which avoid suspicion and build better trust feasibility studies have been completed between citizens and stakeholders. (Lagos, Kogi, Bayelsa) need to be revived, especially the one for Kogi which is more 5. Courts need to interpret if NNPC has inland. rights to make discretionary deductions 2. Special Petroleum fraud tribunal and Civil society organizations need to approach capacity boosting for prosecutors the courts to determine which is superior between the country’s constitution which To deter fraud, justice must not only be mandates that all revenue due to the done, but must be seen to have been done in country should be paid to the Consolidated a timely manner. The current time frame for Revenue fund and the NNPC Act which concluding corruption cases related to allows it to recoup its cost before paying the subsidy and other activities in the petroleum balance to the federation account. This will sector is too long. Perhaps, a special tribunal help introduce proper oversight to its may be able to accelerate timeframes. functions and prevent arbitrary deductions. 3. Fix pipeline network to the inlands so we 6. Track outcomes from subsidy corruption can scrap PEF and let market forces play cases The more petroleum pipelines are Civil society needs to ensure that all cases, sabotaged, the more money the government investigations and findings of subsidy fraud will have to spend on paying for petroleum are properly followed up on a regular basis, equalization subsidy for petrol sold across preferably monthly. the country. It would also seem that as long
13 Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation 7. Foresighted Needs-Mapping 8. Mindset resetting The government, in collaboration with civil On a long-term basis, a campaign for society, needs to proactively map out perceptional change of all stakeholders most current consumption needs and projected especially the citizens has become consumption needs of the citizenry viz-a-viz imperative. Citizens need to understand the current and projected local refining capacity demerits of a petrol subsidy program and needed to meet those needs over the next the centrality of every citizens predicament 40 years. The civil society needs to engage whenever an economic crisis occurs. regularly or perhaps, quarterly with the government to track its actions to ensure the nation is on course to have adequate local refining capacity.
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