Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime - Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation - FIX OUR OIL

 
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Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime - Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation - FIX OUR OIL
Nigeria's Petrol
  Subsidy Regime
  Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

POLICY BRIEF
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime - Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation - FIX OUR OIL
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Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

       COUNTRY PROFILE

                                                                                   Nigeria has a                         it has the

                                                                                                                         9th
                                                                                   population of

                                                                                  196m
                                                                                  people
                                                                                                                         largest gas
                                                                                                                         reserves3
       There are at least

       87m
       Nigerians living in extreme
       poverty1 - many of whom
                                                                                      and also the

                                                                                     10th
                                                                                      largest crude   2
                                                                                                                    at least

                                                                                                                    N10tn
                                                                                                             has been spent on petrol
                                                                                      reserves in            import subsidy between
       believe subsidized fuel is
                                                                                      the world              2006 and November 20184
       the only benefit they get
       from the government

Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, popularly called                                              What is the opportunity cost of subsidy?
petrol in this resource-rich country is one
product whose price is regulated by the                                                                   N10trillion can:
Nigerian government as its political class
fears that increases in the price of petrol and                                                                BUILD & EQUIP
by extension increase in the cost of living,
occasioned by a deregulated price regime,                                                                     2,400
                                                                                                               units of 1,000-bed
could become a flashpoint for mass                                                                              hospitals across 774 LGAs
uprisings and political instability.
                                                                                                               or

                                                                                                               500,000
BudgIT lends its voice to the argument that
continuation of petrol price regulation
creates safety nests for intractable forms of                                                                  NEW HOUSES
                                                                                                               for families through mortgage
corruption within the country's subsidy                                                                        at N20m per house
regime implied by price regulation, which
deprives the nation of more funds needed                                                                       or
for socio-economic development and also                                                                        ADDITIONAL
                                                                                                               27,000mw
discourages investors, who generally prefer
a deregulated industry, from investing in the
downstream sector especially in the area of                                                                    of solar powered electricity
                                                                                                               to the national grid
refinery construction and operation.
                                                                                                              or
According to Petroleum Products Pricing
                                                                                                               EDUCATE & SKILL UP
and Regulatory Agency, PPPRA, and
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation,
NNPC, between 2006 when the Petroleum
                                                                                                              2,000,000
                                                                                                               Nigerians with global standard
Support Fund, PSF, was set up and 2018, at                                                                     quality tertiary education and
                                                                                                               sought-after skills
least N10 trillion has been spent on petrol
import subsidy.

1. https://www.channelstv.com/2018/06/25/nigeria-overtakes-india-in-worlds-extreme-poverty-ranking/
2. https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=oil&graph=reserves&display=rank
3. https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=gas&graph=reserves&display=rank
4. BudgIT Research
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                                                           02

    A burden on the future

  With no strategic framework for the removal of
  the country’s petrol subsidy program and a
  population expected to balloon to 398 million5
  people by 2050, Nigeria risks carrying the
                                                                                                                      398m
                                                                                                                        people
  financial burden of a subsidy program that
  could drown out development of its other                                                         196m6
                                                                                                    people                2050
  sectors over the next 15 years.
                                                                                                     2018

   Nigeria's Subsidy Expenditure & Transfers

                                    Nigeria spent at least
                                    N10trillion*                                             $10.85bn
                                                                                             was transferred from Nigeria's
                                    on subsidy                                               Foreign Excess Crude Account for
                                    in the past 13 years                                     subsidy payments between 2011
                                    (2006 - 2018)                                            and 2014
                                    Source: PPPRA, NNPC                                      Source: Federal Ministry of Finance, "Summary of the Analysis of
                                                                                             Foreign Excess Crude Account from 2011 to 20th May, 2015"

  13-year breakdown of Nigeria's expenditure on petrol import subsidy7

                                                             N2.11tn

                                                                           N1.36tn
                                                                                        N1.32tn
                                                                                                          N1.22tn                             N1.19tn
                                     N667bn
                          N631bn                                                                                 N654bn
                               N469bn
      N272bn
N257bn
                                                                                                                               N145bn

                                                                                                                          N24bn

   2006        2007         2008        2009        2010        2011         2012        2013       2014       2015       2016      2017* 2018*

   Source: Daily Trust, NNPC Monthly Report

  *From NNPC's Monthly Report only

5. https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2050/
6. https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2018/
7. https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/nigeria-spent-n9tr-on-fuel-subsidy-in-10-years-pppra.html
03                                                                Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

Petrol Price in Nigeria:
What are the key cost drivers?

The price per barrel of crude oil plays a                                   N305 to $1 in 201810. Within the same
critical role in the surge in petrol prices being                           period, the price of petrol surged by 34,424%
a major factor of production. Crude oil prices                              from N0.42 per litre in 1977 to a regulated
shot up by 713.4% from $12.54 per barrel8                                   price of N145 per litre in 2018.
in January 1977 to a peak of $102 per
barrel in September 2013 and then dropped                                   Our analysis shows a pearson's correlation
to $61.3 per barrel in 2018. In the last 41                                 coefficient11 of 0.92 between Petrol Price and
years, the exchange rate of the Nigerian                                    Naira-USD Exchange Rate over a period of
naira fell by 48,313% (that is, the amount of                               16 selected years from 1977, indicating a
Naira needed to purchase a single dollar                                    very strong relationship between both
increased) from9 N0.63 to $1 in 1977 to                                     variables.

                                Crude oil price shocks affect local petrol prices

                                                                    CRUDE OIL PRICES
                                                                    SHOT UP BY
                                                                   713.4%
                                                                    between 1977 to 2013
                                                                    creating an upward surge in
                                                                    the total cost of production
                                                                    for refined petrol

                            Each time Nigeria's Naira is devalued, imports become more
                            expensive. Nigeria's continous dependence on petrol importation
                            means that local petrol prices will continue to suffer from exposure
                            to exchange rate volatility. As a result, subsidy bill required to keep
                            petrol price at current regulated levels can be expected to balloon
                            irrespective of the government or political party in power when
                            next Nigeria's Naira undergoes another devaluation.

8. US Imports of Crude Oil https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/petr.pdf
9. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GOVPUB-T63_100-45728fcb131fefb32e2376c70c60690a/pdf/GOVPUB-T63_100-45728fcb131fefb32e2376c70c60690a.pdf
10. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/exrate.asp?year=2018&month=11
11. BudgIT Research
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                                                 04

    Petrol Price per liter12 (1977 - 2016)

    The price of petrol increased by more than 34,000% from N0.42/liter in 1975 to N145/liter in 2018

    N/Liter
                                                                                                                                    N145/liter

    140

    120

    100

      80

      60

      40

      20
             N0.42/liter

        1977 1978 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2012 2016

        Source: Fuel Subsidy Corruption and the Illusions of Economic Reconstruction in Nigeria

   Crude oil price per barrel13 (1977 - 2016)

                                  % Change in Petrol Price                                        % Change in Crude oil price

      $/barrel

      140

      120
                                                                                                                                $109.45/barrel
      100

        80

        60

        40

        20

        1977 1978 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2012 2016

        Source: US Imports of Crude Oil

12. http://www.mcser.org/journal/index.php/ajis/article/viewFile/5993/5764
13. US Imports of Crude Oil https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/petr.pdf
05                                                                     Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

   % Change in Petrol Price vs % Change in Naira-USD Exchange Rate14

                               % Change in Petrol Price                                    % Change in NGN-USD Exchange Rate

     700%

     600%

     500%

     400%

     300%

     200%

     100%

          1975             1980              1985                1990         1995            2000            2005            2010            2015
    -100%
              Source: BudgIT Research

     How exposed is Nigeria's petrol price to exchange rate volatility?

     Nigeria currently imports                                                                               Poor refinery capacity

     91%
                                                                                                             utilization as low as

     of its daily petrol needs leaving
                                                                                                             9.88%
                                                                                                             is the primary reason
     local prices exposed to shocks                                                                          Nigeria continues to
     from exchange rate fluctuations                                                                          import petrol

                                        13-Month trend in Nigeria's Petrol Supply15
    'millions                                   Imported Petrol              Locally Refined Petrol

     2,500

     2,000

     1,500

     1,000

       500

         Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18                                   Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
         Source: NNPC Monthly Operational & Performance Report

14. BudgIT Research
15. NNPC Monthly Operational & Performance Report, November 2018
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                                                     06

Legal and political dilemma of
subsidy removal

Petrol is one of the products listed in the                                        neighbouring countries - which is big
Price Control Act 1977. The Act provides                                           enough to incentivise smuggling of
strict penalties for anyone who sells above                                        subsidized products to neighbouring border
the regulated price. However, no marketer                                          towns. According to NNPC, there are 2,201
will import a product to run at a loss due to                                      petrol stations in Nigeria’s porous border
price regulations that do not take into                                            towns and coastal frontiers16, with a
considerations the realities of market forces.                                     combined fuel tank capacity of 144.9 million
Withdrawal of marketers from petrol                                                litres. However, the population in this area
importation often means petrol scarcity and                                        does not warant the presecence of such
posibble civil and political unrest. To avoid                                      tank capacity. Like Nigeria, Venezuela,
political      catastrophe,        successive                                      (which has the lowest petrol price in the
governments have had to sustain subsidy to                                         world of N3.65/liter as a result of subsidy)
ensure marketers find petrol importation                                            also faced similar problems with smuggling,
and distribution somewhat profitable. There                                         with official government figures estimating
are two types of subsidy the government                                            that the country loses at least $18bn
provides:                                                                          annually17   to     smugglers    who     sell
                                                                                   Venezuela's cheap petrol in Colombia and
1. Petrol Import Subsidy:                                                          other neigbhouring countries.

In this program, the government pays petrol                                        Past governments have tried to end the
marketers for the difference between the                                           country’s petrol import subsidy program,
regulated price of imported petrol and the                                         however, their moves have been fiercely
Expected Open Market Price, EOMP,                                                  resisted by citizens who benefit from low
estimated by the Petroleum Products                                                prices. In the case of Bamidele Aturu versus
Pricing and Regulatory Agency, PPPRA, as                                           Attorney-General of the Federation18 the
an import subsidy. This program is handled                                         Federal High Court declared illegal and
through the Petroleum Subsidy Fund, PSF.                                           unconstitutional the policy decision of the
                                                                                   federal government to deregulate the
Import subsidy creates petrol price arbitrage                                      downstream sector which would have led to
- the differential between the regulated                                           the removal of petrol subsidy.
price in Nigeria and the high petrol prices in

    Subsidy incentivizes smugglers                                                     Citizens & NGOs resist subsidy removal
    Nigeria loses significant amount of its
    subsidized fuel to smugglers who sell it at
    market prices in neighbouring countries                                             Civil society often

     Venezeula loses                                                                   RESISTS                                       Say No to
                                                                                       SUBSIDY
    $18bn
                                                                                                                                  Subsidy Removal!

                                                                                       REMOVAL
     TO SMUGGLERS                                                                      their argument is for the
     annually who sell that                                                            government to fight
     country's subsidized                                                              corrpution in the program
     petrol in Colombia and                                                            instead of ending subsidy
     neigbhouring countries

16. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/298049-regulate-petrol-supply-to-border-communities-ppmc-tells-marketers.html
17. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45179671
18. https://www.thecable.ng/buhari-decieved-nigerians-says-falana
07                                                                    Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

                                                                                 2. Petrol Price Equalization subsidy:

                                                                                 Petrol sold in states near coastal regions
                           Despite equalization                                  (specifically Lagos ports) like Ogun, Ondo
                           subsidy, there is uneven                              (etc) are typically cheaper than those sold in
                           petrol price distribution                             states that are inland (e.g. Kano, Borno etc)
                           along inland regions                                  due to the additional cost of transportation
                                                                                 to inland states when petroleum products
                                                                                 pipeline infrastructure leading to these
            State                Average petrol price                            states are compromised or experience
                                                                                 failure. The Nigerian government tries to
                                                                                 solve this problem by covering the extra cost
                                                                                 of transportation to oil marketers with an
                                                                                 equalization subsidy, so that citizens in all
                                                                                 parts of the country can buy petrol at the
                                                                                 regulated price.

                                                                                 Unfortunately, this form of subsidy has
                                                                                 failed to stabilize prices of petrol across
                                                                                 inland states like Borno, Taraba etc.
                                                                                 According to the PMS Price Watch
                                                                                 published by the country’s National Bureau
                                                                                 for Statistics, NBS, for July 2018, nearly all
                                                                                 inland regions purchased petrol above the
                                                                                 Fixed Price of N145 per liter despite
                                                                                 allocation for PMS equalization subsidy -
                                                                                 with Borno, Taraba and Bayelsa recording
                                                                                 the highest petrol prices at N155.00 per
            Source: NBS PMS Price Watch, July 2018
                                                                                 liter, N151.82 per liter and N151.67 per liter
                                                                                 respectively19.

                                                                #AskQuestions

  Are citizens the ultimate beneficiaries                                                   Why do citizens still buy petrol above
  of the country's equalization subsidy                                               1    regulated prices despite huge
       program or vested interests?                                                        equalization subsidy expenditure?

                                                                                           Which government has the political
                                                                                      2    will to scrap or reform the
                                                                                           equalization subsidy program?

19. https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/11509-PMSREPORTJuly2018-proshare.pdf
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                               08

Nigeria's N382bn Subsidy Scandal:
Will justice ever be served?

In 2006, Nigeria had only six (6) fuel                                        government and some of those implicated in
importers, yet by 2011, this number had                                       the probe 7 years ago, as many of them are
skyrocketed to 140. As at 31st December                                       yet to receive any real punishment. Indeed,
2011, it was established that the total                                       news reports abound that some of these oil
amount paid as subsidy in that year was                                       companies are being rewarded with juicy
N2.587* trillion, amounting to more than                                      contracts as the Nigerian National
900% increase over the appropriated sum                                       Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, granted
of N245 billion for that year20. The outcry                                   them rights to participate in the 2017/2018
that greeted this stunning observation led to                                 crude oil trade where they are allowed to lift
a series of probes initiated by the country’s                                 32,000 barrels per day of crude oil21.
Federal Government. More than 20
companies were identified as being                                             A total of N382** billion was lost to the
complicit after investigations were launched,                                 subsidy scandal as probe committees set up
and several of them are still facing criminal                                 discovered. This N382 billion lost could have
charges in Nigerian courts for receiving                                      provided 15,280 small businesses with
hugely inflated subsidy claims. However,                                       long-term, collateral-free, startup capital
insinuations are rife that there may be a                                     loans of N25 million each; this could then be
collusion between the political elite in                                      re-loaned to others upon repayment.

                                                                                     Over

                                    N2.58tn
                                                                                 900%
                                                                                       increase
            N245bn                                                                   over the appropriated sum
                                                                                     of N245 billion for that
         approporiated                   actual subsidy                              year triggered a probe.
        subsidy payment                   payment for                                Justice is yet to be served
            for 2011                         2011                                    to many of those indicted.

                                                                                     N382bn can fund

      N382bn                                                                     15,280
        lost to subsidy scandal                                                      small businesses
       as discovered by probe committees set                                         with long-term, collateral-free startup
       up. Some marketers never used their                                           capital loans of N25million each; this
       throughput agreement yet claimed                                              could be reloaned to others upon
       subsidy                                                                       repayment

*This amount is more than the N2.11trillion reported as subsidy payment by PPPRA for that year (see page 2)
**Another presidential committee reviewed the amount lost to the scandal from the initial N422.54bn21 to N382bn

20. http://www.sahara-group.com/docs/hrr.pdf
21. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/docs_download/Technical%20committee%20report%20on%20subsidy%20-%20part%201.pdf
09                                                                    Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

NNPC’s new role as petrol importer:
Should Nigerians be worried?

While the petrol marketers have been                                             1. NNPC may be paying itself subsidy for
impugned for their role in the subsidy                                           losses not incurred
scandal, they too face genuine problems of
their own with the Federal government                                            In June 2017, the Landing cost of PMS was
especially with delayed payments of                                              N124.83 per liter with an Expected Open
subsidy claims and difficulty in accessing                                        Market Price, EOMP of N144.20 according
foreign exchange to import fuel. This led                                        to the Petroleum Products Pricing
many marketers to abandon importation of                                         Regulatory Agency, PPPRA23. This is lower
petrol leading to long queues at petrol filling                                   than the government’s regulated price of
stations and political blowback for the                                          N145 per liter by a margin of +N20.17 per
current administration. The administration                                       liter. However, a review of NNPC’s monthly
has thus asked NNPC, the nation’s national                                       Financial and Operations Report for June
oil company, to intervene and become the                                         2017 shows that it claimed to have made
importer of last resort to ensure that the                                       losses of -N11bn on the sale of petrol and
queues disappear. As at December 2017,                                           hence it deducted N11bn as subsidy/under
NNPC was responsible for nearly 78% of all                                       recovery before paying the balance revenue
petrol imported in that year22. In 2018, this                                    to the country’s FAAC account.
figure is closer to 100% of all petrol
imported. NNPC wasn’t set up for this                                            2.   Discretionary                        deductions             and
importation role and doesn’t have all the                                        expenditure
infrastructure to handle importation of
nearly 51 million liters of petrol daily, it must                                NNPC appropriated $1.05bn of revenue
be noted.                                                                        from dividend accruals from the Nigerian
                                                                                 Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG)
Furthermore, NNPC’s reputation in the                                            Limited for handling fuel importation24; this
public eye is not necessarily top notch. A                                       definitely includes deductions for under
small part of its reputational crisis is due to                                  recovery/subsidy. However, Chapter V, Part
largely fictitious claims made by some                                            1 (E), Section 80(1 to 4) of the Constitution
segment of the media, but some part of this                                      of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, says
crisis is of its own making as NNPC is often                                     revenue from the federation must be paid
found to be economical with the truth. An                                        into the Consolidated Revenue Fund, and
example is NNPC’s claim that petrol subsidy                                      funds must be authorised by an
no longer exists in the country, whereas it                                      Appropriation Act before being paid out.
makes provisions for ‘under-recovery’ - a                                        While the intentions of NNPC may be very
necessary condition for subsidy to be paid.                                      good, they are not enough to breach the
                                                                                 constitution. If all well intentioned revenue
Here are a few things Nigerians, civil society                                   agencies are allowed to break the law, the
and the government need to pay attention                                         result will be complete fiscal irresponsibility.
to as NNPC becomes the importer of last                                          There is a reason these checks and balances
resort for petrol products:                                                      exist in the constitution.

22. PPPRA 2017 Annual Performance Report
23. PPPRA 2017 Annual Performance Report
24. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/290842-updated-nnpc-explains-subsidy-says-1-05bn-revolving-fund-with-cbn.html
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                                                                   10

3. Subsidy over deductions                                                               4. Risks from Infrastructure gaps

Due to little or no oversight over their                                                If NNPC continues to be the sole importer of
activities   and     weak     accountability                                            petrol - a task it was not set up to perform -
framework, vested interests within NNPC                                                 it will have to depend on third parties for
may be taking advantage of the subsidy                                                  infrastructure needed to handle subsidized
program through over deductions as                                                      petrol now and in the near future. This
pointed out by the Office of the Accountant                                              creates an additional layer of risk - especially
General of the Federation. Two significant                                               the risk that subsidized petroleum products
cases where this overdeduction occurred                                                 could be stolen by its partners. Indeed, N11
are in 2011 and in 2015. In 2011 and 2015,                                              billion25 worth of NNPC’s subsidized petrol
NNPC claimed to deduct N844.944 billion                                                 went missing from the storage facilities of
and N306.917 billion respectively. However,                                             two NNPC partners - MRS and Capital Oil &
submissions from the Office of the                                                       Gas. NNPC reported that it successfully
Accountant-General of the Federation                                                    recovered 30 million liters expropriated by
report showed that NNPC actually deducted                                               MRS but was not as successful with Capital
N981.734 billion and N316.720 billion; a                                                Oil & Gas which was yet to return 82 million
cumulative difference of N146.593 billion.                                              liters26 of the 100 million liters it took at the
                                                                                        time the incidence was reported.

                               NNPC made
                              N146.59bn                                                                                                     N981.7bn
                                                                                                               actual deductions
                                                                                              2011             initial claim          N844.94bn
                                OVER DEDUCTIONS
                               according to a report by the                                                    actual       N316.7bn
                               accountant general of the                                      2015
                               federation in 2011 and 2015
                                                                                                               initial    N306.9bn

                                                                                                                    30mLITERS
                              N11bn                                                                                  RECOVERED
                                                                                                                     from MRS successfully
                                WORTH OF PETROL
                               WENT MISSING
                               from the storage faciliteis of
                               two NNPC partners - MRS
                                                                                                                    82mLITERS
                               and Capital Oil                                                                       UNRECOVERED
                                                                                                                     from Capital Oil & Gas

25. https://www.nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/738/NNPC-Moves-to-Recover-N11bn-Missing-Petrol-from-Capital-Oil.aspx
26. https://www.nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/738/NNPC-Moves-to-Recover-N11bn-Missing-Petrol-from-Capital-Oil.aspx
11                                                                        Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

Conclusion

The question of continuation of the country's                                         over $10.85bn from its Excess Crude savings
petrol subsidy program needs to be                                                    Account to sustain subsidy. Of the $180bn
addressed        decisively.      Venezuelan                                          that has accrued to Excess Crude Account
government and its citizens played the ostrich                                        since 2004 (which is supposed to be a fiscal
and ignored all the warning signs of                                                  buffer), less than $249m remains29 as at
impending economic doom as its fiscals were                                            2018.
beleaguered by huge subsidy bills while
citizens enjoyed the lowest27 petrol price in                                         We believe subsidy needs to be removed.
the world of N3.65/liter. Today, Venezuela’s                                          Palliative measures should be provided for
economy is in turmoil. Nigeria with the 6th                                           people that will be worse hit by the removal.
lowest petrol price globally of N145/liter is                                         Four sectors - Transportation, Power, Health
headed in the same direction: struggling with                                         and Education - should be prioritized for
a recent 60% currency devaluation crisis in                                           cushion the effects. We also believe that
2016 (from N197:$1 to N305:$1) which                                                  funding for cheaper mass transit and
increased the country’s subsidy bill, dwindling                                       subsidies to public institutions can be
government revenue, weakening demand for                                              targeted for these groups. The challenge is
Nigerian crude, low budget credibility and                                            that Nigeria lacks a comprehensive single
approximately 69% of its annual revenue                                               database structure to holistically define such a
spent on debt servicing28; Nigeria has had to                                         subset of the population.
take the desperate measure of withdrawing

27. https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
28. https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/10/27/nigerias-terrifying-debt-to-revenue-ratio/
29. https://www.businessamlive.com/election-spending-nigeria-govt-further-depletes-excess-crude-account-to-249m/
Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation
                                                                                                                        12

Recommendations

1. Boost local refining capacity to reduce                                     as the petroleum equalization subsidy
the current 91% exposure to petrol                                            exists, the country may continue to
importation                                                                   experience sabotage of its product pipelines,
                                                                              as some vested interests seem to be
International development partners (World                                     benefiting from it without delivering value.
Bank, IFC, GIZ and DFID) need to work with
the government and civil society to design a                                  Perhaps, it's time for Nigerians to realize
program to mobilize technical and financial                                    petrol prices at the coastland will always be
support for refinery license holders to                                        different from prices at the inlands.
ensure refineries under construction
become operational.                                                           4. Adopt OpenData

Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) contracts                                       NNPC and other agencies in the sector need
need to be fully investigated to determine if                                 to be supported to adopt open data
the country is getting value for money while                                  principles over the next 5 years. Proactive
the findings should be made public. All                                        disclosures and transparency always help to
greenfield refinery projects for which                                          avoid suspicion and build better trust
feasibility studies have been completed                                       between citizens and stakeholders.
(Lagos, Kogi, Bayelsa) need to be revived,
especially the one for Kogi which is more                                     5. Courts need to interpret if NNPC has
inland.                                                                       rights to make discretionary deductions

2. Special Petroleum fraud tribunal and                                       Civil society organizations need to approach
capacity boosting for prosecutors                                             the courts to determine which is superior
                                                                              between the country’s constitution which
To deter fraud, justice must not only be                                      mandates that all revenue due to the
done, but must be seen to have been done in                                   country should be paid to the Consolidated
a timely manner. The current time frame for                                   Revenue fund and the NNPC Act which
concluding corruption cases related to                                        allows it to recoup its cost before paying the
subsidy and other activities in the petroleum                                 balance to the federation account. This will
sector is too long. Perhaps, a special tribunal                               help introduce proper oversight to its
may be able to accelerate timeframes.                                         functions and prevent arbitrary deductions.

3. Fix pipeline network to the inlands so we                                  6. Track outcomes from subsidy corruption
can scrap PEF and let market forces play                                      cases

The more petroleum pipelines are                                              Civil society needs to ensure that all cases,
sabotaged, the more money the government                                      investigations and findings of subsidy fraud
will have to spend on paying for petroleum                                    are properly followed up on a regular basis,
equalization subsidy for petrol sold across                                   preferably monthly.
the country. It would also seem that as long
13                                        Nigeria's Petrol Subsidy Regime: Dilemma of the world's most populous black nation

7. Foresighted Needs-Mapping                       8. Mindset resetting

The government, in collaboration with civil        On a long-term basis, a campaign for
society, needs to proactively map out              perceptional change of all stakeholders most
current consumption needs and projected            especially the citizens has become
consumption needs of the citizenry viz-a-viz       imperative. Citizens need to understand the
current and projected local refining capacity       demerits of a petrol subsidy program and
needed to meet those needs over the next           the centrality of every citizens predicament
40 years. The civil society needs to engage        whenever an economic crisis occurs.
regularly or perhaps, quarterly with the
government to track its actions to ensure the
nation is on course to have adequate local
refining capacity.
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