Guide to residential sites in H1 2018's Government Land Sales Programme
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For Restricted Circulation RESEARCH Guide to residential sites in H1 2018’s Government Land Sales Programme In the H2 2018 GLS programme, the government introduced sites at locations with strong residential demand. What are the location attributes of each site? Edmund Tie & Company Research 1
Executive Summary The residential market recovered in 2017, with private home prices rising by 1.1% 2017 following a 3.1% decline in 2016. Developers also sold more homes than they have launched. At a glance Some 6,020 new private units were put up for ▪ Home sales in 2017 exceeded the sale in 2017 and developers sold 10,566 units, level in 2013 against 7,972 units in 2016. The Executive Condominium (EC) market also ▪ Home prices recovered in H2 2017 registered higher sales, with 4,011 EC unit transacted despite developers launching only ▪ Market is likely to rebound although 1,555 EC units in 2017. any upside sentiments may be tempered by the volatile equity We anticipate the market to improve in 2018 markets and forecast home prices to go up by 4-8%. This H1 2018 GLS guide offers a snapshot of the land parcels in the Confirmed List and selected new sites in the Reserve List. We further allocated a score based on a series of criteria and ranked them based on their potential take-up rate. Edmund Tie & Company Research 2
Overview of the residential market in 2017 Market on the uptrend The residential market bottomed out in Q3 2017 Moving forward, we anticipate the market to and started to trend upwards based on the URA continue trending upwards, barring any Price Index (Figure 1). The upturn in prices was economic shocks. The demand for residential due to a culmination of factors. First, buyers’ properties in 2018 will be partly supported by sentiments improved after the Government owners who sold their homes through finetuned the sellers’ stamp duties, and their collective sales. Separately, the number of optimism was further reinforced by the units that can be launched remained low, as competitive land bids. By the end of 2017, the supply from the collective sales would take developers sold more units. The resale market longer to come into the market. Based on our was equally active. There were 14,043 resale initial estimates, we expect residential prices transactions, compared to 7,901 units in 2016. to go up by 4-8% in 2018. The appreciation may be revised upwards, assuming there are no government intervention or economic upheavals resulting from geopolitical tensions. Figure 1: URA Residential Price Index and Private Home Sales (excluding Executive Condominiums) Units sold URA Price Index 12,000 155 150 10,000 145 8,000 140 135 6,000 130 4,000 125 120 2,000 115 0 110 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 New Sales Total Secondary Sales URA Non-landed Property Price Index Source: URA, Edmund Tie & Company Research Edmund Tie & Company Research 3
THE HOT SPOTS The hot spots continued to be in district 15, due to its large stock of private homes. The market has also seen more activity due to the collective sales. The higher land bids, and the increase in “The prices in the prime districts sales activity pushed the prices of some have jumped significantly. The residential developments in districts 14 and 15 over the $2,000 per sq ft barrier (Figure 2). build-up in price is likely to continue, with more home owners The prices in the prime districts 9,10 and 11 and seeking to invest in the housing those in the Downtown Core also went above $3,000 per sq ft. Not only did local buyers enter market of Singapore.” the market, more foreign buyers were also purchasing luxury homes. Figure 2: Transaction volume and price range by district level (Non-landed homes) District Number of Min of Unit Price ($ psf) Max of Unit Price ($ psf) transactions in 2017 1 183 $ 715.00 $ 3,237.00 2 309 $ 640.00 $ 4,000.00 3 1,831 $ 567.00 $ 2,301.00 4 326 $ 657.00 $ 2,908.00 5 1,797 $ 676.00 $ 2,096.00 7 59 $ 735.00 $ 2,475.00 8 340 $ 350.00 $ 2,514.00 9 1,546 $ 507.00 $ 3,919.00 10 1,463 $ 676.00 $ 4,439.00 11 615 $ 616.00 $ 2,875.00 12 717 $ 432.00 $ 2,693.00 13 411 $ 715.00 $ 1,681.00 14 1,354 $ 572.00 $ 2,184.00 15 2,083 $ 557.00 $ 2,885.00 16 1,345 $ 543.00 $ 1,792.00 17 263 $ 488.00 $ 1,221.00 18 1,240 $ 495.00 $ 1,340.00 19 1,843 $ 529.00 $ 1,774.00 20 461 $ 498.00 $ 1,776.00 21 676 $ 563.00 $ 2,763.00 22 377 $ 541.00 $ 1,838.00 23 1,091 $ 518.00 $ 1,707.00 25 101 $ 563.00 $ 1,277.00 26 124 $ 607.00 $ 1,386.00 27 701 $ 501.00 $ 1,474.00 28 432 $ 619.00 $ 1,384.00 Source: URA, Edmund Tie & Company Research Edmund Tie & Company Research 4
The Land Bids Land bids have risen significantly. Comparing the winning land bids for the land parcels at West Coast Vale, the rates rose by about 35% over a year (Figure 3). Separately, the land bid “Despite the uncertainty from the for Jiak Kim Street was at $1,732.50 per sq ft, upcoming Budget and DC rates which is higher than the land bid for Central Boulevard site, which is zoned for white use, in revision, the residential market is 2016. The higher land bids are likely to push up likely to expand. Land rates, the Development Charge (DC) rates in however, seemed to have peaked February’s revision. towards the end of 2017.” To temper the developers’ hunger for land, the Government introduced the batched tender exercise. However, the batching of land parcels on the same date of closing tender has limited impact on land bids. Separately, more sites will be under the concept and price revenue tender system. For instance, the land parcel at Hillview will be evaluated based on proposals that demonstrate high construction productivity outcomes at the conceptualization stage. Figure 3: Number of bids and unit prices of winning tender in 2017 $ per sq ft per plot ratio 1,800 1732.5 1722.3 1,600 1540 1,400 1181 1,200 1050.7 1110 1000.7 Upper Serangoon Road 964.8 1,000 939.3 800 800 Serangoon North Woodleigh Lane 680.8 West Coast Vale Jiak Kim Street Fourth Avenue 591.5 Toh Tuck Road 565.4 Perumal Road Chong Kuo Rd 600 525.6 Stirling Road Handy Road West Coast Tampines Ave 10 (Parcel C) Avenue 1 Realty Park 400 Lorong 1 (Landed) 200 Vale 0 Feb-17 Jan-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jul-17 May-17 May-17 Dec-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-17 Confirmed Reserve Source: URA, Edmund Tie & Company Research Edmund Tie & Company Research 5
ATTRIBUTES OF PROJECTS WITH RANKING CRITERIA HIGHER TAKE-UP RATES The attributes were each assigned a scoring scale of 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Under the location criteria, we further distinguished three Analysing the sales transactions from 2014 to sub-attributes: distance to MRT stations, 2017, we identified four attributes that are established schools, and lifestyle amenities. associated with higher take-up rates. Besides distance, we also examined the reputation of schools and the quality of Location amenities around the project. A score of 5 is Most of the projects that did well were near awarded for each locational attribute that is existing or upcoming MRT stations, established less than a 5-minute walk to the amenity, and schools, and other lifestyle or shopping the score depreciates proportionately. amenities. The competition criterion is established based Growth Potential on the number of existing and upcoming projects in the area. We allocate the site a Projects that did well tend to have less score of 5 if there were no competing launches competition in its vicinity. and is scaled down proportionately. Established neighbourhoods How established the neighbourhood is The demand for projects tend to emanate from depends on the history and cultural identity of residents living in the same District. Most buyers the area. For projects proximate to HDB will prefer to buy a place near where they used estates, the age of the HDB town will be taken to live or where their parents are currently into consideration. staying. Additionally, those living in the older private developments may want to move to new A score is given whenever the location is projects. within an area under URA plans. If the site is in an area earmarked as the second CBD, we Areas earmarked for future allocate a score of 5. If it is status quo, we development under URA Plans allocate a score of 1. Projects that are in areas earmarked for future Last, we allocate a score based on the development were well-received in 2017, as negative externalities in the area. For instance, buyers were attracted to the potential capital noise pollution from nearby expressway or appreciation when the plans come to fruition. congestion. We award the site a score of 5 if it Some of the upcoming areas include Paya is not affected by negative externalities and 1 Lebar, Jurong East, Punggol Digital District and if the site is adversely impacted by the Bidadari Housing Estate surroundings. Edmund Tie & Company Research 6
Land Parcels in H1 2018 GLS LAND PARCELS Confirmed List CUSCADEN ROAD District 10 Site Area: 0.57ha URA’s estimated number of units: 170 GPR: 2.8 Estimated Launch: February 2018 Height constraints: 20 storeys Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Affluent buyers who enjoy the accessibility to the shopping belt and CBD and are intending to get a Likely buyers weekend home • Investors seeking to rent to expatriates, medical professionals and affluent families who have members seeking medical services at nearby hospitals Edmund Tie & Company Research 7
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 25,586 units Indicative unit prices $2,800- $3,000 per sq non-landed (forecast based on ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 10 2018) Total 557 units Expected number of 8-12 bids Transactions in bids if triggered District 10 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $1,650-$1,780 per sq walking Orchard Road Shopping January 2018 ft per plot ratio Belt Lifestyle and other Selected projects in 3 Cuscaden (90 units) Amenities pipeline 120 Grange (56 units) Botanic Gardens Gleneagles Hospital Comparable site Handy Road Mount Elizabeth recently transacted January 2018 Hospital ($212.2m, $1,722 per Camden Medical Centre sq ft per plot ratio) Transport Orchard Boulevard MRT Station (under construction) Orchard Road MRT Station (North South Line) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving distance Dempsey Hill area Amenities Central Expressway Fort Canning Hill Clarke Quay (CTE) Central Business District Robertson Quay Pan Island (CBD) Expressway (PIE) Buyers by Singapore: 1,253 units nationality in Mainland China: 70 units District 10 as of Indonesia: 70 units 28/01/2018 Malaysia: 64 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 transactions Lowest Highest Pros The site is proximate to Development Unit Price Unit Price major shopping belts and (tenure) in 2017 ($ in 2017 ($ has a good public per sq ft) per sq ft) transport network. It is also near to the Gramercy Park 2,500 3,310 upcoming Orchard (FH) station along the Sophia Hills (LH) 1,806 2,290 Thomson-East Coast Cairnhill Nine (LH) 2,373 2,769 Line and Botanic OUE Twin Peaks 2,152 3,394 Gardens. The supply of (LH) homes in the area is The Orchard 2,101 3,403 limited. Residences (LH) Cons The site is relatively small. Edmund Tie & Company Research 8
LAND PARCELS Confirmed List MATTAR ROAD District 14 Site Area: 0.64ha URA’s estimated number of units: 255 GPR: 3.0 Estimated Launch: March 2018 No height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities N 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders or families living in the surrounding HDB estate • Home owners downsizing from landed homes and those who are purchasing for their children • Parents who intend to enrol their children into Geylang Likely buyers Methodist Primary School • Investors looking to rent to professionals working in Paya Lebar and those who are confident on the growth prospects of the area Edmund Tie & Company Research 9
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 14,177 units Indicative unit prices $1,700 - $1,950per non-landed (forecast based on sq ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 14 2018) Total 661 units Expected number of bids 8-10 bids Transactions in if triggered District 14 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $1,050 - $1,200 per Walking Macpherson Market & January 2018 sq ft per plot ratio Hawker Centre Lifestyle Amenities Selected projects in Former Eunosville Macpherson Community pipeline (1,399 units) Centre Schools Canossa Convent Comparable site recently Eunosville Primary School transacted June 2017 Canossian School ($765.8m, $909 per Macpherson Primary sq ft per plot ratio School inclusive of DC and Geylang Methodist DP) School (Primary) Transport Mattar MRT Station and Macpherson MRT Station (Downtown line) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Kaki Bukit Amenities Pan Island distance Geylang Area Paya Lebar Quarter Expressway (PIE) Serangoon/ Bidadari (upcoming) Kallang Paya Lebar Area Paya Lebar Square Expressway (KPE) Central Business District City Plaza East Coast Parkway (CBD) (ECP) Buyers by Singapore: 1,116 units nationality in Mainland China: 109 District 14 units Malaysia:104 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 transactions Pros Residents in the future development will enjoy Lowest Highest the amenities in Geylang Development Unit Price Unit Price in and Macpherson, and it (tenure) in 2017 ($ 2017 ($ per will benefit from Paya per sq ft) sq ft) Lebar’s growth. The site Tre Residences 1,250 1,609 is also close to Mattar (LH) MRT station. Sims Urban Oasis 1,204 1,586 (LH) Cons There is a substantial Park Place amount of State Land in Residences At 1,579 2,184 the vicinity and there is a PLQ (LH) likelihood it will be released in subsequent GLS launches. Edmund Tie & Company Research 10
LAND PARCELS Confirmed List SILAT AVENUE District 3 Site Area: 2.5ha URA’s estimated number of units: 1,160 GPR: 3.5 (Residential) Estimated Launch: March 2018 Residential with 450 sqm Commercial Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Professionals working in the CBD and the creative sectors who are attracted to the culture and lifestyle of the area, affordable food and transport amenities Likely buyers • Doctors and professionals in the medical field • Investors seeking to rent to expatriates and professionals working in Singapore General Hospital Edmund Tie & Company Research 11
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 6,945 units Indicative unit prices $1,800 - $2.100 per non-landed (forecast based on sq ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 3 2018) Total 861 units Expected number of 6-8 Transactions in bids if triggered District 3 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $1,000 - $1,200 per Walking Tiong Bahru estate January 2018 sq ft per plot ratio Everton Park estate Other Amenities Selected projects in Stirling Road: 1,259 Singapore General pipeline units Hospital (SGH) Margaret Road: 316 Schools units CHIJ Kellock (under construction) Comparable site Stirling Road Radin Mas Primary recently transacted May 2017 School ($1.0bn, $1,163 per CHIJ St Theresa’s sq ft per plot ratio) Convent Within short Regions Lifestyle and Other Expressway driving Sentosa Amenities Central Expressway distance Central Business District Vivocity (CTE) (CBD) Ayer Rajah Chinatown Expressway (AYE) Marina Bay Sands (MBS) Mount Faber Buyers by Singapore: 1,365 nationality in China: 154 District 3 Malaysia: 94 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Indonesia: 32 transactions Lowest Highest Pros The site is close to many Development Unit Price Unit Price F&B and unique retail (tenure) in 2017 ($ in 2017 ($ offerings in the area. It is per sq ft) per sq ft) within walking distance to SGH and its specialist Highline $1,535 $2,301 centres. Residents can Residences (LH) also go to Mount Faber Commonwealth $1,439 $2,056 for recreation, which Towers (LH) could be a potential Queens Peak (LH) $1,429 $1,871 selling point. Principal Garden $1,485 $1,932 (LH) Cons The MRT station is not The Crest (LH) $1,555 $1,800 within walking distance to the site. Edmund Tie & Company Research 12
LAND PARCELS Confirmed List Dairy Farm Road District 23 Site Area: 1.97ha URA’s estimated number of units: 500 GPR: 2.1 Retail: 4,000 sqm No known additional height Estimated Launch: May 2018 constraints Subject site Proximity to Established Schools 4 3.5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 3 Station 2.5 2 1.5 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0.5 0 N Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Owners in the area looking to downsize Likely buyers • Owners who are buying for their children • Malaysian home buyers working in Singapore Edmund Tie & Company Research 13
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 17,641 units Indicative unit prices $1,560 - $1,700 per non-landed (forecast based on sq ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 23 2018) Total 1,091units Expected number of 8-12 Transactions bids if triggered (non-landed) in District 23 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $950- $1,100 per sq ft Walking The Rail Mall January 2018 per plot ratio HillV2 Schools Selected projects in Condominium German European pipeline Development at Jalan School Remaja:108 units) Assumption English Le Quest: 216 units School unsold St Francis Methodist School Comparable site Toh Tuck Road CHIJ Our Lady Queen of recently transacted April 2017 Peace ($265m, $939 per sq Lifestyle and other ft per plot ratio) Amenities Dairy Farm Nature Park Chestnut Nature Park Transport Hillview MRT station (Downtown Line) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Jurong East Amenities Pan Island distance Clementi Bukit Timah Nature Expressway (PIE) Reserve Bukit Timah Former Ford Factory Expressway (BKE) Bukit Batok Nature Park Beauty World Buyers by Singapore: 961 nationality in China: 74 District 23 Malaysia: 89 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 India: 34 transactions Pros The site is proximate to Lowest Unit an international school Highest Unit Development Price in and is easily accessible Price in 2017 (tenure) 2017 ($ per to major growth clusters ($ per sq ft) sq ft) by car. The site is on Eco Sanctuary elevated grounds. $954 $1,321 (FH) Hillion Residences $1,254 $1,666 Cons It is quite a distance from the nearest MRT station Kingsford. Hillview $853 $1,344 or retail mall. It loses the Peak first mover advantage to Le Quest (LH) $1,143 $1,464 the land parcel in H1 2017 GLS at Hillview. Edmund Tie & Company Research 14
LAND PARCELS Confirmed List Jalan Jurong Kechil District 21 Site Area: 1.49ha URA’s estimated number of units: 280 GPR: 1.4 Estimated Launch: June 2018 No known additional height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Private owners staying in vicinity that are seeking to Likely buyers downsize • Private owners purchasing for their children • Upgraders staying in Bukit Batok Edmund Tie & Company Research 15
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 13,886 units Indicative unit prices $1,600 - $1,800 per non-landed (forecast based on sq ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 21 2018) Total 676 units Expected number of 8-10 Transactions bids if triggered (non-landed) in District 21 Within 15min Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $950-$1,100 per sq ft of Walking Old Bukit Timah Fire January 2018 per plot ratio Station Beauty World area Selected projects in Daintree Residences: Schools pipeline 327 units Pei Hwa Presbyterian Bukit View Primary Comparable site recently Toh Tuck Road School transacted April 2017 Lianhua Primary School ($265m, $939 per sq Keming Primary School ft per plot ratio) Lifestyle and other Amenities Bukit Batok Nature Park Transport Beauty World MRT Station (Downtown Line) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Jurong East Amenities Pan Island distance Clementi Expressway (PIE) Bukit Batok Buyers by Singapore: 685 nationality in China: 32 District 21 Malaysia: 28 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Pros The site is very exclusive, Lowest Unit Highest Unit and close to many natural Development Price in Price in amenities. It is also within (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per 2km to Pei Hwa sq ft) sq ft) Presbyterian Primary The Creek@Bukit $1,256 $1,884 School. (FH) The Hillford (LH) $1,184 $1,243 Cons It is a 10-14min walk to the nearest MRT station. Edmund Tie & Company Research 16
LAND PARCELS Confirmed List Canberra Link (EC) District 27 Site Area: 1.80ha HDB’s estimated number of units: 450 GPR: 2.5 Estimated Launch: June 2018 No known additional height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research Likely buyers • Upgraders staying at the Sembawang and Yishun HDB estates Edmund Tie & Company Research 17
KEY FACTS Total Stock of EC 3,058 units Indicative unit prices $790-$950 per sq ft in District 27 (forecast based on prices as at 28 January 2018) Total 1,403 units Expected number of bids if 8-12 Transactions triggered (EC) in District 27 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $360-$400 per sq ft per Walking Sembawang Shopping Centre January 2018 plot ratio Chong Pang Market & Food Centre EC projects with unsold Parc Life: 107 unsold Schools units units Sembawang Primary School The Criterion: 33 unsold Ahmad Ibrahim Primary School units Furen International School Lifestyle and other Comparable site recently Sengkang in Sep 2016 Amenities transacted ($240.95m, $355 per sq Montreal Green ft per plot ratio) Transport Sembawang MRT Station Within short Regions Attractions and Amenities Expressway driving distance Woodlands Sembawang Park Seletar Expressway Yishun Singapore Zoo (SLE) Sembawang Golf Course Northpoint City Buyers by HDB addresses: 586 units addresses Private addresses: 62 units N.A: 755 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Pros The site is close to Sembawang transactions MRT station. If the site at Canberra Drive in the Reserve Lowest Unit Highest Unit Development List is triggered, it will also boost Price in 2017 Price in 2017 (tenure) sales for the EC development. ($ per sq ft) ($ per sq ft) There are also not many EC The Visionaire (LH) $715 $886 developments in the market. The Brownstone (LH) $759 $962 The Criterion (LH) $703 $896 Cons Buyers are likely to come from the area and targeted marketing is needed. Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List BARTLEY ROAD / JALAN BUNGA RAMPAI District 19 Site Area: 0.47ha URA’s estimated number of units: 115 GPR: 2.1 (Residential) Estimated Launch: Available for application Height constraints: 64m AMSL N Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders from nearby HDB estates • Mature families seeking to downsize from their landed Likely buyers properties • Buyers purchasing for their children to stay near them • Investors who are looking to rent to professionals working in the Kaki Bukit and Tai Seng area Edmund Tie & Company Research 19
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 24,546 Indicative unit prices $1,500- $1,800 per sq non-landed (forecast based on ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 19 2018) Total 1,843 Expected number of 8-10 Transactions bids if triggered (non-landed) in District 19 Within 15min of Schools Likely bid range as at 28 $900 - $1,100 per sq Walking Bartley Secondary January 2018 ft per plot ratio School Maris Stella High Selected projects in GLS site at St. Gabriel’s Secondary pipeline Serangoon North: 613 School units Transport GLS site at Bartley MRT Station Woodleigh Lane: 735 Tai Seng MRT Station units GLS site at Bidadari estate: 825 units Former Serangoon Ville site Former Rio Casa site Former Sun Rosier site Comparable site recently Woodleigh Lane transacted July 2017 ($700.7m, $1,111 per sq ft per plot ratio) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Toa Payoh Amenities Kallang Paya Lebar distance Braddell nex Expressway (KPE) Serangoon Stamford American Pan Island Macpherson International School Expressway (PIE) Cedar Primary and Cedar Central Expressway Girls’ Secondary School (CTE) Paya Lebar Methodist Primary and Secondary Buyers by Singapore: 1,890 nationality in Mainland China: 138 District 19 Malaysia: 115 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 transactions Pros The site is within 1km to Maris Stella High and Lowest Unit Highest Cedar Primary School. It Development Price in Unit Price in is within walking (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per distance to Bartley MRT sq ft) sq ft) station. Stars of Kovan 1,304 1,629 Forest Woods (LH) 1,212 1,587 Cons The site is close to Bartley Viaduct and there Botanique At 1,269 1,316 may be some loss of Bartley (LH) efficiency due to the land’s shape. Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List YISHUN AVENUE 9 District 27 Site Area: 2.15ha URA’s estimated number of units: 805 GPR: 2.8 Estimated Launch: Available for application Height constraints: 56m AMSL Proximity to established schools 5 4 Proximity to MRT Upcoming area station 3 2 1 Established 0 Lifestyle amenities neighbourhood Lack of competition Shopping amenities from other sites Distance to Attractiveness of location Expressways N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders from nearby HDB estates who are looking for affordable private homes Likely buyers • Investors who are looking to rent to professionals working in nearby industrial estates • Prospective buyers who work in Malaysia and Khoo Teck Puat Hospital Edmund Tie & Company Research 21
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 5,590 units Indicative unit prices $1,100 - $1,200 per sq non-landed (forecast based on ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 27 2018) Total 701 units Expected number of 4-8 bids Transactions in bids if triggered District 27 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at $550 - $650 per sq ft Walking Junction Nine 28 January 2018 per plot ratio Northpoint City Schools Selected projects in Kandis Residences: 11 Northland Secondary pipeline units not launched School Symphony Suites: 67 Chongfu School units not launched Yishun Town Secondary School Comparable site Jalan Kandis Xishan Primary School recently transacted April 2016 Transport ($51.1m, $480 per sq Yishun MRT Station ft per plot ratio) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Sembawang Amenities Seletar Expressway distance Woodlands Checkpoint Orchid Country Club (SLE) Seletar Airbase Seletar Country Club Tampines Expressway Sembawang Golf Course (TPE) Sembawang Park Lower Seletar Reservoir Buyers by Singapore: 625 nationality in Mainland China: 65 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 District 27 Malaysia: 58 transactions Lowest Unit Highest Pros The site is proximate to Development Price in Unit Price in Khatib Bongsu Park (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per connector and Yishun sq ft) sq ft) Dam. The industrial parks also offer several Kandis Residence $1,176 $1,354 retail options. (LH) North Park $1,089 $1,474 Cons The site is less Residences (LH) accessible compared to Symphony Suites $968 $1,147 others in the GLS (LH) programme, and it is The Wisteria (LH) $962 $1,163 1.3km away from Yishun MRT Station. Edmund Tie & Company Research 22
LAND PARCELS Reserve List CANBERRA DRIVE District 27 Site Area: 4.11ha URA’s estimated number of units: 765 GPR: 1.4 Estimated Launch: Available for application No height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 N Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders or families living in the surrounding HDB Likely buyers estates • Those seeking to downsize from their landed homes • Those who are buying for their children to stay nearby Edmund Tie & Company Research 23
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 5,590 units Indicative unit prices $1,200-$1,400 non-landed (forecast based on homes in prices as at 28 January District 27 2018) Total 268 units Expected number of 4-8 bids Transactions in bids if triggered District 27 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $600-$750 per sq ft Walking Some cafes in the January 2018 vicinity Lifestyle Amenities Selected projects in Kandis Residences: Sembawang Sports and pipeline 11 units not launched Community Hub (under Symphony Suites: 67 construction) units not launched Schools Ahmad Ibrahim Comparable site recently Jalan Kandis Secondary School transacted April 2016 Sir Manasseh Meyer ($51.1m, $480 per sq International School ft per plot ratio) Ahmad Ibrahim Primary School Yishun Primary School Sembawang Primary School Transport Canberra MRT station (under construction) Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Yishun Amenities Seletar Expressway distance Woodlands Sun Plaza (SLE) Yishun Dam Sembawang Golf Course Orchid Country Club Lower Seletar Reservoir Buyers by Singapore: 625 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 nationality in Mainland China: 65 transactions District 27 Malaysia: 58 Lowest Unit Highest Unit Pros The site is located near Development Price in Price in 2017 the future Canberra MRT (tenure) 2017 ($ per sq ft) Station. It also has some ($ per sq ft) cafes nearby. Kandis Residence 1,176 1,354 (LH) Cons The launch of the EC Canberra site in the Confirmed List 656 1,100 Residences (LH) will weigh on the bids for Eight Courtyards the site. 834 1,261 (LH) Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Sims Drive District 14 Site Area: 1.7ha GPR: 3.0 URA’s estimated number of units: 680 No known additional height Estimated Launch: May 2018 constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways N Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Investors who like properties at the city fringe Likely buyers • Upgraders from the HDB developments • Owners who have sold their home en bloc and are buying for their children Edmund Tie & Company Research 25
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 15,430 units Indicative unit prices $1,600-$1,800 per sq non-landed (forecast based on 28 Jan ft homes in prices) District 14 Total 1,354 units Expected number of bids if 4-8 bids Transactions triggered (non-landed) in District 14 Within 15min Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $950-$1,100 per sq ft of Walking Market and Hawker Jan 2017 per plot ratio Centre Schools Selected projects in Former Eunosville Geylang Methodist pipeline (1,399 units) School (Primary and Residential secondary) development at Macpherson Primary Guillemard Road (138 School units) James Cook University Residence 1 (116 CHIJ Katong Convent units) Cedar Primary School Lifestyle Amenities Comparable site Former Eunosville Singapore Badminton transacted ($765m, estimated Hall $194m DC, $909 per Transport sq ft per plot ratio) Aljunied MRT station Within short Regions Attractions and Expressway driving Raffles Place Amenities Pan Island distance Orchard Road shopping National Stadium Expressway (PIE) district National Indoor Stadium Kallang Paya Lebar Central Business District Leisure Park Kallang Expressway (KPE) (CBD) SingPost Centre Paya Lebar Gardens by the Bay Proportion of Singapore: 1,116 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 buyers by China: 109 units transactions nationality Malaysia: 104 units Lowest Unit Highest Unit Pros The project is close to Development Price in Price in Aljunied MRT station and (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per located at the city fringe. sq ft) sq ft) It is also close to many Park Place amenities in the area. Residences at $1,579 $2,184 PLQ (LH) Cons It is very near the expressway and may Sims Urban Oasis $1,204 $1,586 (LH) face competition from the land parcel at Mattar Tre Residences $1,250 $1,609 Road. (LH) Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Tampines Avenue 10 (EC) District Site Area: 2.56ha HDB’s estimated number of units: 715 GPR: 2.8 Estimated Launch: May 2018 No known additional height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders staying at Tampines Housing Estate • Buyers who want to stay near their parents at Tampines • Expatriates who are working at Changi Business Park and Likely buyers have children studying at United World College • Pilots and aviation professionals who work in Changi Airport • Staff working at Temasek Polytechnic Edmund Tie & Company Research 27
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 5,321 units Indicative unit prices $800-$940 per sq ft EC in District (forecast based on 18 prices as at 28 January 2018) Total 78 units Expected number of 4-10 bids Transactions bids if triggered (EC) in District 18 Within 15min of Schools Likely bid range as at 28 $340-$420 per sq ft Walking United World College of January 2018 per plot ratio South East Asia (East Campus) Poi Ching School EC projects with unsold NA St Hilda Primary School units Temasek Polytechnic Comparable site Anchorvale Lane recently transacted August 2016 ($241m, $355 per sq ft per plot ratio) Within short Regions Attraction and Expressway driving Changi Business Park Amenities Pan Island distance Changi Airport Giant Expressway (PIE) IKEA Tampines Our Tampines Hub Expressway Tampines Mall Century Square Tampines 1 Tampines Finance Park Bedok Reservoir Buyers by HDB addresses: 47 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Addresses Private: 31 transactions Pros There are no upcoming Lowest Unit Highest EC developments in Development Price in Unit Price in Tampines at the moment, (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per and there is a strong sq ft) sq ft) catchment of HDB ARC at Tampines 856 856 upgraders. (LH) The Eden At Cons The site is not within 616 840 Tampines (LH) walking distance to MRT The Tampines station. 866 866 Trilliant (LH) Simei Green 634 867 Condominium (LH) Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Clementi Avenue 1 District 5 Site Area: 1.88ha URA’s estimated number of units: 640 GPR: 3.5 (Residential) Estimated Launch: June 2018 No known additional height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Buyers who work in NUS, NUH, Business Parks in Buona Vista • Investors who seek capital gains from the future growth of Likely buyers Jurong area • Families living in the surrounding landed developments who are seeking to downsize • Families that want to be within 1km from Nan Hua Primary School Ed
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 13,565 units Indicative unit prices $1,400-$1900 per sq non-landed (forecast based on ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 5 2018) Total 1,797 Expected number of 4-6 bids Transactions in bids if triggered District 5 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $900 -$1,085 per sq ft Walking The Clementi Mall January 2018 per plot ratio Grantral Mall @ Clementi Selected projects in Twin View: 520 units Schools pipeline The Verandah Nan Hua High School Residences: 170 units NUS High School of Vista Park: 638 units Mathematics and Park West: 1,900 Science units National University of Land parcel at West Singapore Coast: 730 units Singapore Polytechnic Former Normanton United World College of Park: 1,200 units South East Asia (Dover Campus) Comparable site recently Park West The Japanese Primary transacted January 2018 School ($840.9m, $850 per Lifestyle Amenities sq ft plot ratio, Clementi Stadium including estimated Clementi Sports Hall DC of $290.6m and Transport excluding balcony Clementi MRT station bonus) Others Republic of Singapore Yacht Club Within short Regions Attraction and Amenities Expressway driving Jurong East Vivo City Ayer Rajah distance one-north Sentosa Expressway (AYE) Mediapolis Mount Faber Holland Village Mapletree Business City Buyers by Singapore: 1,516 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Nationality Mainland China: 111 transactions (Total Sales) units Malaysia: 76 units Lowest Unit Highest Unit Development Price in Pros The site is attractive as it Price in 2017 (tenure) 2017 ($ per is close to the upcoming ($ per sq ft) sq ft) growth clusters in Jurong Parc Riviera (LH) 934 1,394 East and Buona Vista. The Clement 1,187 1,724 Cons There is a lot of Canopy (LH) upcoming supply. The Trilinq (LH) 1,005 1,672 Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Anchorvale Crescent (EC) District 19 Site Area: 1.80ha HDB’s estimated number of units: 540 GPR: 3.0 (Residential) Estimated Launch: June 2018 No known additional height constraints Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities N 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Upgraders staying in the public housing estate Likely buyers • First time buyers who are professionals and aspire to own a higher quality home Edmund Tie & Company Research 31
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 5,321 units Indicative unit prices $780-$990 per sq ft EC homes in (forecast based on District 19 prices as at 28 January 2018) Total 846 units Expected number of 8-12 bids Transactions bids if triggered (EC) in District 19 Within 15min Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $360-$461 per sq ft of Walking Compass One January 2018 per plot ratio Schools Upcoming Skool4kidz EC projects not yet Rivercove Campus @ Sengkang launched and projects Residences: 628 units Riverside Park with unsold units Springdale Primary School Nan Chiau Primary School Comparable site Anchorvale Lane Lifestyle Amenities recently transacted August 2016 Sengkang Sports Complex ($241m, $355 per sq Sengkang Sports Centre ft per plot ratio) Anchorvale Community Club Seng Kang Floating Wet land Transport Cheng Lin LRT station Sengkang MRT station Others Sengkang General Community Hospital (2020) Within short Regions Attraction and Expressway driving Punggol Central Amenities Tampines distance (upcoming Digital District) Seletar Mall Expressway (TPE) Hougang nex Serangoon Heartland Mall Tampines Hougang Mall Pasir Ris Waterway Point Coney Island Buyers by HDB addresses: 380 Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Addresses Private addresses: 137 transactions NA: 329 Lowest Highest Pros The site is close to many Development Unit Price Unit Price in amenities and there is a (tenure) in 2017 ($ 2017 ($ per strong upgrader catchment. per sq ft) sq ft) Hundred Palms Cons Buyers may be diverted to 777 908 Residences (LH) the other EC. The Vales (LH) 745 909 developments such as The Terrace (LH) 725 848 Sumang Walk. Treasure Crest 679 878 (LH) Bellewaters (LH) 729 864 Ed
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Peck Seah Street District 2 Site Area: 0.72ha URA’s estimated number of units: 700 GPR: 8.4 (Residential) Estimated Launch: June 2018 Height Constraint: 250m AMSL Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location N Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Foreign buyers who are purchasing for investment Likely buyers • Millennials, who are also working professionals in the area, will be attracted given the thematic cafes in the area Edmund Tie & Company Research 33
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 3,528 units Indicative unit prices $2,600-$3,300 per sq non-landed (forecast based on ft homes in prices as at 28 January District 2 2018) Total 309 units Expected number of 6-8 bids Transactions bids if triggered (non-landed) in District 2 Within 15min of Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $1,500 to $1800 per Walking Chinatown January 2018 sq ft per plot ratio Maxwell Market Amoy Market Selected projects in Apartments at Hoe Ann Siang Road/ Club pipeline Chiang Road: 270 Street cafes units) Guoco Tower South Beach International Plaza Residences: 190 units OUE Downtown Central Boulevard Schools and Beach Road land Cantonment Primary parcels: Not Known School Lifestyle Amenities Comparable site Jiak Kim Street Pearl’s Hill City Park recently transacted December 2017 Telok Ayer Park ($955.4m, $1,733 per AnnSiang Hill Park sq ft per plot ratio) Transport Tanjong Pagar MRT station Within short Regions Attraction and Expressway driving Orchard Road Amenities Marina Coastal distance Marina Bay Marina Bay Sands Expressway (MCE) Chinatown Garden by the Bay Ayer Rajah City Hall Suntec City Expressway (AYE) Central Business District Esplanade (CBD) Buyers by Singapore: 238 units Developments and unit prices based on 2017 Nationality Mainland China: 20 units transactions Malaysia: 13 units Lowest Unit Highest Pros This is a prime site that Development Price in Unit Price in will benefit from the (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per rejuvenation of Tanjong sq ft) sq ft) Pagar and Shenton Way. Marina One $2,126 $3,157 Residences (LH) Cons - V on Shenton (LH) $1,786 $2,757 Wallich Residence At Tanjong Pagar $2,935 $4,000 Centre (LH) Edmund Tie & Company Research 34
LAND PARCELS Reserve List Woodlands Square URA’s estimated number of residential units: 310 units Maximum overall GFA: 78,347 sqm Office Space: 52,009 sqm (minimum) District 25 Shop/Restaurant: 3,000 sqm (maximum) Site Area: 2.24ha Childcare Centre: 1,000 sqm (minimum) GPR: 3.5 (Commercial) Remaining: No additional height constraints Additional Office, Commercial school, Serviced apartments or residential use (not more than 23,504 sq m for serviced apartments and/or residential use) Available for application Proximity to Established Schools 5 Proximity to MRT Negative Externalities 4 Station 3 2 Upcoming area 1 Lifestyle Amenities 0 N Established Shopping Amenities Neighbourhood Lack of Competition Distance to Express from other sites ways Attractiveness of location Source: URA Space, Edmund Tie & Company Research • Malaysians who work in Singapore Likely buyers • Investors purchasing to leverage on the upcoming MRT link to Johor Bahru • Upgraders Edmund Tie & Company Research 35
KEY FACTS Total Stock of 2,422 residential units Indicative unit prices Residential: $1,200 non-landed (forecast based on prices per sq ft homes in as at 28 January 2018) District 25 Total office 186,141 sq ft of office stock NLA space (public and private) Total 101 residential units Expected number of bids 6-8 bids Transactions if triggered (non-landed) in District 25 Total office 16,931.77 sq ft space transacted (sale) Within 15min Retail Amenities Likely bid range as at 28 $1,000-$1,200 per sq of Walking Causeway Point January 2018 ft per plot ratio Woodlands Civic Centre Schools Selected projects in Woods Square Innova Primary School pipeline (Commercial, 634,424 Woodgrove Primary sq ft GFA) School Woodlands Primary No residential School projects Transport Woodlands MRT station Comparable site Woodlands Square Upcoming MRT station to transacted April 2014 Johor Bahru ($634m, $906 per sq Existing KTM train station ft per plot ratio) Within short Regions Attraction and Amenities Expressway driving Johor Bahru Singapore Zoo Seletar Expressway distance Sungei Buloh Wetland Furniture Hub at Sungei (SLE) Reserves Kadut Republic Polytechnic Singapore Sports School Singapore Turf Club Pros The area has much Developments and unit prices based on 2017 potential for growth, and transactions there is demand for residential developments. Lowest Unit Highest Development Price in Unit Price in Cons The demand for office (tenure) 2017 ($ per 2017 ($ per space is subdued until the sq ft) sq ft) opening of MRT station. The Woodgrove $1,009 $1,009 (LH/Retail) Woods Square $1,786 $1,926 (LH/Office) Parc Rosewood $738 $1,277 (LH/Residential) Woodhaven $958 $1,060 (LH/Residential) Edmund Tie & Company Research 36
CONTACTS Edmund TIE Executive Chairman +65 6393 2386 edmund.tie@etcsea.com ONG Choon Fah Chief Executive Officer +65 6393 2318 choonfah.ong@etcsea.com PROFESSIONAL SERVICES Valuation Advisory Valuation Advisory Property Tax Advisory & Statutory Valuation POH Kwee Eng Hazel NG NG Poh Chue +65 6393 2312 +65 6393 2397 +65 6393 2515 kweeeng.poh@etcsea.com hazel.ng@etcsea.com pohchue.ng@etcsea.com Nicholas CHENG Carolyn TEO TAY Peili +65 6393 2317 +65 6393 2521 +65 6393 2332 nicholas.cheng@etcsea.com carolyn.teo@etcsea.com peili.tay@etcsea.com Alden Cheong +65 6393 2517 alden.cheong@etcsea.com Research Consulting Property Management Hospitality ONG Choon Fah ONG Choon Fah Philip LEOW HENG Hua Thong +65 6393 2318 +65 6393 2318 +65 6417 9228 +65 6393 2398 choonfah.ong@etcsea.com choonfah.ong@etcsea.com philip.leow@etcsea.com huathong.heng@etcsea.com LEE Nai Jia Constance LEUNG KWOK Sai Kuai TAY Hock Soon +65 6393 2329 +65 6393 2340 +65 6417 9229 +65 6887 0088 naijia.lee@etcsea.com constance.leung@etcsea.com saikuai.kwok@etcsea.com tayhs@treetops.com.sg Paul WONG +65 6417 9225 paul.wong@etcsea.com AGENCY SERVICES Investment Advisory Auction & Sales Commercial & Retail China Desk Edmund TIE Nicholas CHENG CHUA Wei Lin HENG Hua Thong +65 6393 2388 +65 6393 2317 +65 6393 2326 +65 6393 2398 edmund.tie@etcsea.com nicholas.cheng@etcsea.com weilin.chua@etcsea.com huathong.heng@etcsea.com SWEE Shou Fern Joy TAN YAM Kah Heng +65 6393 2523 +65 6393 2505 +65 6393 2368 shoufern.swee@etcsea.com joy.tan@etcsea.com kahheng.yam@etcsea.com TAN Chun Ming Author: +65 6393 2360 Dr LEE Nai Jia chunming.tan@etcsea.com Senior Director, Research +65 6393 2329 Residential Margaret THEAN Edmund Tie & Company (SEA) Pte Ltd +65 6393 2383 5 Shenton Way #13-05 UIC Building, Singapore (068808) margaret.thean@etcsea.com phone +65 6293 3228 fax +65 6298 9328 Gary TAN email mail.sg@etcsea.com +65 6393 2311 gary.tan@etcsea.com Disclaimer Karen ONG This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into +65 6393 2366 transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. karen.ong@etcsea.com Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, Edmund Tie and Company can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to Edmund Tie and Company. © Edmund Tie & Company 2018 Edmund Tie & Company Research 37
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