Monthly Policy Note July 2021 - Primus Partners

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Monthly Policy Note July 2021 - Primus Partners
Monthly
Policy Note

 July 2021
Monthly Policy note                               I      July 2021 edition
                    Grading the Graders! - Performance Grading Index Findings
                    (2019-2020)
State report card on performance in school education                  experience of students and teachers using measurable
measured on the national Performance Grading Index                    key performance indicators (KPI). However, limiting such a
(PGI) was released by the Ministry of Education,                      critical effort to a data gathering exercise for ranking will
Government of India, early June for the year 2019-20. This            dilute its significance and potential.
is the third in the PGI series, and the first was released in
2019 for the year 2017-2018. Data for the index is                    Therefore, efforts should also be mounted to ascertain
aggregated from existing data sources such as UDISE,                  correlation, interdependency, and causality among KPI,
NAS surveys, mid-day meal, around 5 domains – learning                and adding some more indicators that impact student
outcomes, access, equity, infrastructure & facilities, and            and teacher performance on a transactional level, with
governance processes.                                                 implications for organizational learning. To mine the merits
                                                                      of this system, efforts around unifying databases at state
Punjab, Chandigarh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andaman &                  level and migrating to a state database modelling tool
Nicobar Islands emerged as the top 5 performers in the                would help prepare dashboards for school, block, district,
2019-2020 PGI and all of these have obtained Level II                 and state level - federated up to the national level.
(total of 10 levels with level I being the highest), indicating
a score between 901-950/ 1000. While in 2018-19, no state             In addition, protocols pertaining to timing and frequency
had reached level II, but the index reveals a gap of 38%              of data collection should be mapped to various data
between the total scores of best and worst performing                 sources in accordance with implementation of
states.                                                               programme activities and fund utilisation against different
                                                                      KPIs.
The PGI 2019-2020 indicates that the low performing
indicators requiring improvement in infrastructure &                  And finally setting state wise annual targets for three years
facilities are ICT facilities and availability of textbooks and       and incorporating provisions in the Samagra Shiksha
uniforms. Similarly, improvements required in governance              annual plans to monitor progress against the annual
processes include monitoring attendance of teachers,                  targets, would help measure progress on KPIs and provide
transparent recruitment of teachers and principals, filling           the basis for state school improvement plans and budgets
vacancies of teachers, principals and administrative staff,           linked to the Output Outcome Monitoring Framework.
periodic supervision and inspection and availability of
                                                                      In the final analysis performance of schools on these KPIs
finances. The PGI has great potential as a diagnostic,
                                                                      which carry relative weightages should ideally be able to
planning, monitoring, ranking and school audit tool to
                                                                      throw up a school score card, to identify low performing
track and measure school, district and state level
                                                                      schools and determine areas of improvement on a
education performance and progress consistently.
                                                                      periodic basis.
                    ‘Is data
Use of such a tool should ideallyreally
                                  be ablethe    new
                                          to solve     oil?’
                                              – Arguably yes, but synthesized
                                                   for and
control factors which impact student learning and school
                     and analyzed data not exactly raw data
                   Adding wings to thy ambition! - Propelling Ease of Doing Business
                   in the BPO industry
 Government      of    India     recently
                                                             Some of the key features of the reforms include:
 announced further reforms for the
 BPO/ITES industry with the issuance of
                                             ❑ Non voice-based entities not to be governed by OSP rules
 revised Other Service Provider (OSP)
 guidelines. These reforms, coupled          ❑ No distinction between domestic and international OSPs
 with the previous announcement in
 Nov 2020, would unshackle the               ❑ Scope of avoiding double hop as remote agents of the OSP can connect
 industry   and     make      it    more       to customer EPABX or any Centralized EPABX directly
 competitive.                                ❑ OSPs can take EPABX services from the Telecom Service Providers (TSPs)
 The Indian BPO industry is today at
 37.6 billion USD and has the potential      ❑ OSPs are allowed to place their EPABX in third party data centers
 to grow to 55.5 billion USD by 2025.        ❑ Doing away with requirement of submitting report / return to DOT or term
 These reforms can help the industry           cells
 achieve the same as there is scope          ❑ OSPs exempted from registration requirement
 of cost optimization, moving to newer
 geographies to tap into fresh talent        ❑ No Bank Guarantees need to be furnished
 and      reduce     regulatory    and
 operational overheads.                      ❑ Work from Home / Work from Anywhere permitted.
Monthly Policy note                            I      July 2021 edition

                Is the Model Tenancy Act a Hit or a Miss – Wait and watch!

In India, as per Census 2011, there are around 1.1 crore         Model Tenancy Act 2021 is a big step towards ensuring
vacant houses in urban areas. This is sufficient stock to        balanced development of rental Sector in India. It aims
house around 5 Crore citizens. It is astonishing that on         to protect the interests of both tenants and landlords. It
one hand, we have acute housing shortage in cities and           also establishes speedy adjudication mechanism for
on other hand we have large number of vacant houses.             quick resolution of disputes. It clearly specifies the
So, why are these houses empty?                                  obligations of both tenants and landlords to reduce any
                                                                 trust deficit and also balancing rights of both. This
Various research studies indicate that lack of balanced          initiative has the potential of greatly enhancing
legislation and poor contract enforcement is the key             institutional rental housing in India, encouraging greater
reason behind high vacancy. Almost every state in India          investment in real estate sector while ensuring housing
has its own Rent Control Act, however as the name                for all.
suggests, these acts were introduced to prevent
exploitation of tenants by landowners. These acts were           However the key challenge is implementation of the act
introduced during world war and partition, where cities          across states. Land is a state subject and accordingly
were facing acute shortage of houses. However, while             enactment of rental act shall be largely dependent on
they served the purpose in short term and ensured                the state government. The challenge shall be to
affordable housing at stable rents but in long term, it led      expedite enactment of the law across the states at
to market distortion and curtailed development of rental         earliest.
housing sector.

                InvITs – why this fits!

  Diversification: InvITs with different underlying assets offer investors a chance to differentiate their
  portfolio. Such an element helps lower related risks and further permits financial backers to produce
  consistent returns over the long haul.
  Builds fixed pay: The choice to reallocate risks and gather a fixed pay enables many investor classes
  such as pension funds to earn over the years.

  Liquidity: By and large, it is not difficult to enter or exit from foundation venture trust, which upgrades
  the liquidity viewpoint.

  Quality resource on the Board: InvITs offer financial backers the chance to invest in resources that are
  overseen by experts. It guarantees successful administration and allocation of assets and assists with
  forestalling fracture of possessions.
  Promoters: By putting resources into InvITs, promoters would have the option to bring down their debt
  burden through an asset sale. Further, promoters can utilize the returns to reinvest in other portfolio
  projects.

                Punjab Anti Red Tape Bill – Commendable intent but execution
                is key for delivery
Punjab’s recent endeavour towards enabling ease in               accountability and transparency and the impact of
not just doing business but also Living by introducing           such Acts is not encouraging.
Punjab Anti Red Tape Bill is truly commendable. It is a
bold and forward looking step towards bringing much              Therefore, it would be pertinent to formulate a
needed objectivity in the delivery of services to Citizens       watertight     implementation       and  enforcement
and Investors.                                                   mechanism for this new Act by Govt of Punjab. Having
                                                                 said that, it is indeed a progressive initiative and
However, even in the past Acts like Right to Services /          something which has the potential to be implemented
Public Services Guarantee Act were implemented to                across other states of the Country.
achieve similar objective of delivering services with
Monthly Policy note                          I     July 2021 edition

                 Being fog light and cautious is imperative today!

Given the existing inflation and RBI's accommodative stance, what are your views on the economy performance in
the last year and your expectations for FY22

RBI through its monetary policy instrument and some out of box thinking has pushed liquidity into the system that is
about 5% of the GDP since the last April. This has kept the 10-yr G-Sec rate low and helped keep cost of debt low,
both for Government and corporate sector, in order to spur growth. The general narrative on inflation is that it is
driven by supply side constraints. However, core inflation has been sticky for sometime now. Economic
performance or its projections should be seen in terms of this “black swan” event that is the pandemic. The world
economy that would come out of it, would be a completely different animal. Pandemic induced uncertainty has
not gone away. That makes the business of growth rate projections that are y-o-y, a mere crystal ball gazing. Given
this I will find it difficult to hazard a guess.

What would be your two most important suggestions for the economy to be able to fast track its recovery towards
pre-COVID estimates?

Economic recovery can only start , if uncertainty arising out of pandemic dissolves. Thus research into the genome
sequencing of the virus that feeds into vaccine research and vaccination program itself, in that order, have to be
first priority. Needless to say programs like “Garib Kalyan Yojana” that prevent poverty and destitution would be
key for social stability during this period.

Getting back to the pre-COVID levels can only be done through a massive program of infrastructure building,
something that was the center-piece of this year’s budget. The US is also using this time-tested mechanism. This will
also give the much needed support to “Atmanirbhar Bharat” program. Looking at the corporate results broadly
and performance of equities that are a proxy of their health, there is no case for any tax-deferrals or rebates.

As the manufacturing industry returns back to normalcy post the second wave courtesy vaccinations and reduced
COVID cases, do you see a significant rise in activity in the coming 6 months or should it be a cautious approach?

Until full vaccination levels reach 40% or the virus abates by itself, it would be difficult to peer beyond the mist of
uncertainty and decide on a full throttle movement ahead. I am an advocate of “Fog light” and cautious
approach, as we are also negotiating the inflationary tendencies in the economy. Getting children back to schools
and restoration of safe public transportation would bring confidence in urban centers that are hub of growth.

The PLI Scheme can prove to be a game changer for India in the long term. For India to be able to fully reach the
targets it is also important to have both a strong upstream as well as downstream which is varying across sectors
currently. What would be your suggestions for the same?
Yes. By its design PLI is supposed to enhance India’s share in the global supply chains and strengthen domestic
supply chains as well. It is important that the current focused approach continues. Otherwise the butter would be
spread too thin. Strongest backing for PLI would come from market oriented reforms, many of whom are already
underway and strong push for infrastructure that is envisaged in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP).

While bitcoins have witnessed significant ups and downs in the last year or so, is it time India got a stricter regulatory
framework for digital currencies?

Most of the asset classes today are denominated in the prevailing currency, unlike earlier times when gold and land
etc vied with currency. Thus sovereign control on currency is imperative and bitcoin has no role in that space. Even
as a financial instrument, it has not shown merit as hedge against currency risk or volatility in any other asset class. I
feel that bitcoin in its present usage is purely speculative. However, we should continuously look at the use of
block-chain technology in the financial or other market and harness its advantages. I would place greater stress on
making the payment systems and instruments more accessible and safe. That makes movement of currency virtual.
India too should move towards a more regulated crypto market as more and more participants are getting
attracted to digital currency speculation with many new platforms sprouting up that give investors the chance to
speculate.

               Mr. Atanu Chakraborty is currently the Chairman at HDFC Bank.
               A 1985 batch IAS officer of Gujarat cadre, Mr Chakraborty retired as Secretary of
               Department of Economic Affairs in April 2020.
               Prior to that, he was Secretary of Department of Investment and Public Asset Management
               (DIPAM).
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