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Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT
MOBILE SERVICES IN WESTERN EUROPE: TRENDS AND
FORECASTS 2016–2021
LEE GIET and KEREM ARSAL
analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About this report
This report provides: GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E KEY METR ICS
commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast Regions modelled: Mobile Connections:
for the Western Europe (WE). Western Europe Handset, mobile broadband1,
in addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts IoT2
draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a Countries modelled individually in Prepaid, contract
rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, the data: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). Austria Smartphone,
Belgium non-smartphone
For the complete data set for the region, please see the Denmark
accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile-WE- Finland Mobile Revenue:
Feb2017. France Service3, retail
Germany Prepaid, contract
Greece Handset, mobile broadband1,
WHO N EEDS T O R EAD T HIS R EPOR T Ireland IoT2
Italy Handset voice, messaging, data
Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators Netherlands
in Europe. Norway Mobile ARPU:
Portugal SIMs, handset
Regulatory bodies in Europe.
Spain Prepaid, contract
Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the Sweden
region, or advise others that do so. Handset voice, data
Switzerland
Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the UK Voice traffic:
European mobile telecoms market. • Outgoing minutes, MoU
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.
2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents
5. Executive summary 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
6. Executive summary 21. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts
and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
7. Worldwide trends
22. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection;
8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by
we use five key drivers and follow strict principles in forecasts
infrastructure investments in network roll-out
23. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our
9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will
forecasts; this involves three main activities
boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
24. About the author and Analysys Mason
10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will
be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%) 25. About the author
11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services 26. About Analysys Mason
will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
27. Research from Analysys Mason
12. Regional trends
28. Consulting from Analysys Mason
13. The decline in mobile broadband ARPU slowed in 2015, but will continue
throughout the forecast period
14. Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user base will
decline in most of them
15. Mobile connections: 4G will become the predominant technology in 2016
16. Geographical coverage: 16 Western European countries comprised 21% of
worldwide telecoms revenue in 2015
17. Smartphones and LTE: All WE countries, except Greece, will exceed 90%
smartphone share of handsets in 2021
18. Mobile ARPU: Some markets will begin to recover, but the overall average
will continue to trend down
19. Increasing 4G penetration of SIMs and OTT service usage will drive handset
data ARPU growth
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total
(retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2011–2021 connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011–2021
2015–2021 Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Western Europe,
2011–2021 2011–2021
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011–
total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021 2021
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021 Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western
Europe
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed
broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western
Europe, 2015–2021
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015–2021
Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western
Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western
Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G,
4G and 5G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed
broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user
base will decline in most of them
Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011– Mobile penetration in Western Europe will decline marginally, from
2021 127% in 2015 to 126% in 2021.
Mobile penetration will decline in the majority of WE countries, the
exceptions being Belgium, France, Greece, Norway and Spain due to
growing adoption of multi-SIM plans. Countries with high penetration
(Austria, Denmark, Finland and Italy) will trend down slightly towards
the regional average, as their sizeable mobile broadband segments
decline and consolidation of handsets continues.
The prepaid/contract mix will shift further towards contract
subscriptions. This is due to the growing popularity of multi-SIM
plans (often tied to fixed–mobile bundles) and the increasing
growth of SIM-only contract plans (where customers use their own
Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011– devices and have the flexibility of a prepaid arrangement).
2021
Operators across WE are increasingly promoting benefits, such as
additional SIMs, to entice consumers to take up converged
bundles, instead of offering discounts. These plans often cater to
families and have seen significant success, particularly in the
Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.
The number of connected companion devices (smart watches or
Fitbits) will grow due to eSIMs, but wearables will remain a
negligible part of the mobile market. These items are not explicitly
included in our models at present.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 14Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 24Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About the authors
Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix,
European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from
University College London (UCL).
Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason’s Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to
understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth
coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously,
Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple
tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment
for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 25Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
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© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 26Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Research from Analysys Mason
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© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 27Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Consulting from Analysys Mason
For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the
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© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 28Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN FEBRUARY 2017
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