MOBILE SERVICES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016-2021 - analysysmason.com
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Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT
MOBILE SERVICES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: TRENDS AND
FORECASTS 2016–2021
LEE GIET and KARIM YAICI
analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017
Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About this report
This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E KEY METR ICS
our 5-year forecast for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It includes
worldwide context and commentary on four key countries: Ghana, Regions modelled: Mobile connections:
Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Handset, mobile broadband1,
IoT2
In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts are Countries modelled individually Prepaid, contract
informed by a unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a Cameroon 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different Côte d’Ivoire
Smartphone,
sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). Ghana non-smartphone
Kenya Mobile revenue:
For the complete data set for the region, please see the Nigeria
accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile-SSA- Rwanda
Service3, retail
Feb2017. South Africa Prepaid, contract
Sudan Handset, mobile broadband1,
WHO N EEDS T O R EAD T HIS R EPOR T Tanzania IoT2
Uganda Handset voice, messaging, data
Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators Zambia Mobile ARPU:
in SSA. SIMs, handset
Regulatory bodies in SSA. Detailed country commentary Prepaid, contract
Ghana Handset voice, data
Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the
Kenya
region, or advise others that do so. Voice traffic:
Nigeria
Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the SSA • Outgoing minutes, MoU
South Africa
mobile telecoms market.
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents
5. Executive summary 19. Penetration will increase, driven by the high level of demand for, and
increasing affordability of, services
6. Executive summary
20. Country-level trends
7. Worldwide trends
21. Ghana: Increasing numbers of smartphones and the availability
8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by
of 3G services from all six operators will help drive data demand
infrastructure investments in network roll-out
22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and the success of mobile
9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will
financial services will encourage continued growth
boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow quickly,
10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will
offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue
be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will affect revenue growth, while
11. The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue
LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
to put downward pressure on ARPU
25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
12. Regional trends
26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts
13. Total service revenue will reach USD51.1 billion in 2021, driven by growth
and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
opportunities in mobile handset data
27. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection
14. Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage
and competition – but growth will slow down 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our
forecasts; this involves three main activities
15. 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for
only 7.3% of mobile connections in 2021 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
16. Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will 30. About the authors
account for 65.8% of SSA’s overall telecoms service revenue in 2021
31. About Analysys Mason
17. South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G, and smartphone share of
32. Research from Analysys Mason
handsets by 2021 – at 21.9% and 55.9% respectively
33. Consulting from Analysys Mason
18. Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most
countries to a –2.1% CAGR through 2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total
(retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2021 connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2021
2015–2021
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, Africa, 2011–2021
2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of 2021
total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021 Saharan Africa
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type and mobile ARPU, Sub- Figure 17: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2015–
Saharan Africa, 2011–2021 2021
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, mobile service Figure 18: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2015–
revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2021 2021
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015– Figure 19: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2015–
2021 2021
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub- Figure 20: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa,
Saharan Africa, 2011–2021 2015–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our
3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2021 forecasting methodology
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband
household penetration, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved
coverage and competition – but growth will slow down
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, Mobile penetration (excluding M2M) will increase from 75.3% to
2011–2021 90.5% during the next 5 years.
Sub-Saharan Africa will have more than 1.0 billion mobile
connections by 2021, only 3.9% of which are mobile broadband
on mid- or large-screen devices. More than 96.6% of handset
SIMs will be prepaid in 2021.
South Africa has the highest SIM penetration rate in the region.
Rwanda and Uganda have among the lowest penetration in the
region because a high proportion of their population is underserved.
The convenience of mobile Internet access will drive the demand
for handset connections, particularly because many users will be
based in areas where there is little or no fixed infrastructure.
Growth rates for SIM penetration will decline in all markets,
compared with 2011–2015. They will drop from double- to single-
digit rates in all of the eleven markets. This is the result of:
currency depreciation and inflation, which is causing service
prices to go up, making them less affordable
MTR cuts, which will help align off-net and on-net tariffs and
reduce the need for multiple SIMs to optimise the cost of calls
the enforcement of SIM registration in some countries (for
example, Sudan and Uganda), which will reduce the demand
for new connections.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 14Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
South Africa
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 29Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About the authors
Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix,
European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from
University College London (UCL).
Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason’s The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of
specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys
Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile
applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim
holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human–computer interaction from the
University of Surrey.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 30Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
communications and digital service providers, vendors,
financial and strategic investors, private equity and
infrastructure funds, governments, regulators,
broadcasters, and service and content providers.
Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
We are future-focused and help clients understand the
challenges and opportunities that new technology brings.
RESEARCH
Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the
different services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 31Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Research from Analysys Mason
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of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.
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www.analysysmason.com/research
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 32Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
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For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the
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PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN FEBRUARY 2017
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