MOBILE SERVICES IN EMERGING ASIA-PACIFIC: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016-2021 - analysysmason.com
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT
MOBILE SERVICES IN EMERGING ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS AND
FORECASTS 2016–2021
KEREM ARSAL and CAI SHIYU
analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017
Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About this report
This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E KEY METR ICS
our 5-year forecast for emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP). It includes
worldwide context and specific country commentary on four key Regions modelled: Mobile Connections:
countries: India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) Handset, mobile broadband1,
M2M2
The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground Countries modelled individually: Prepaid, contract
market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and Bangladesh 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
external interviews. China
Smartphone,
India non-smartphone
For the complete data set for the region, please see the
Indonesia
accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile- Malaysia
Mobile Revenue:
EMAP-Jan2017. Myanmar Service3, retail
Pakistan Prepaid, contract
Philippines Handset, mobile broadband1,
WHO SHOULD R EAD T HIS R EPOR T Sri Lanka M2M2
Thailand Handset voice, messaging, data
Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators
Vietnam Mobile ARPU:
in emerging Asia–Pacific that wish to gain a better understanding of local
market demands and future trends, as well as best practices overseas. SIMs, handset
Detailed country commentary:
Regulatory bodies in emerging Asia–Pacific that want to deepen their Prepaid, contract
• India
understanding of local markets and trends in overseas markets.
• Indonesia Handset voice, data
Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the • Malaysia
region, or advise others that do so, in order to gain qualitative and Mobile voice traffic:
Thailand
quantitative market information. • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the
mobile telecoms market in Asia–Pacific.
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.
2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents
5. Executive summary 19. EMAP – mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid
segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue
6. Executive summary
20. Country-level trends
7. Worldwide trends
21. India: Reliance Jio’s entry into the LTE market will increase competition and
8. Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven
boost the number of 4G connections
by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
22. Indonesia: Operators are investing heavily in service upgrades, which will
9. Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up
accelerate 4G adoption
of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
23. Malaysia: Intensified competition will lead to a decline in ARPU and service
10. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets
revenue during the forecast
worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
24. Thailand: Migration to 4G services will help drive an increase
11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution
in data revenue during the forecast period
by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
12. Regional trends
26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts
13. EMAP: Telecoms revenue increase will be driven by high mobile handset
and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
data usage due to OTT services and 4G migration
27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data
14. Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia–Pacific countries will
collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our
15. Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile
forecasts; this involves three main activities
connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period
29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
16. Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in
4G are driving up the number of connections 30. About the authors
17. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all 31. About Analysys Mason
handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases
32. Research from Analysys Mason
18. Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will
33. Consulting from Analysys Mason
bring down the overall ARPU
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
(retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, emerging Asia–
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, Pacific, 2011–2021
2015–2021
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific,
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011–2021
2011–2021
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, emerging
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of Asia–Pacific
total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, India, 2015–2021
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2015–
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue 2021
(retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2015–
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and 2021
growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2015–
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015– 2021
2021
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G,
4G and 5G’s share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of
fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total
connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Executive summary
Growth in mobile data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and
compensate for a decline in voice and messaging revenue in wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
emerging Asia–Pacific during the forecast period. Total 350
telecoms retail revenue will reach USD319 billion in 2021.
300
Migration from 2G to 3G has been strong in recent years, thanks
to better network coverage, and 4G take-up will continue to 250
Revenue (USD billion)
increase during the forecast period. China is experiencing rapid
4G take-up, thanks to the government’s investments and 200
favourable telecoms policies. In addition, the launch of Reliance
150
Jio in India and the expected launch of 4G in Bangladesh will drive
take-up in these densely populated countries. 100
Operators are moving towards data-led pricing. This will lead to
increasing pressure to reduce the price per GB, despite currently 50
low levels. For example, operators in Indonesia and Malaysia have
0
already started to offer heavily discounted prices for 4G data.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
However, data traffic is increasing due to modern OTT
applications, 4G migration and smartphone growth. Audio and
video streaming, AR/VR and other similar use cases will drive the Retail revenue: Mobile voice Mobile messaging Mobile handset data
growth of data traffic and associated mobile data revenue in the Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
region. Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV
Emerging Asia–Pacific’s mobile retail revenue represented 26.5% Business network services
of total mobile revenue worldwide in 2015, and its share will
increase to 27.8% by 2021, thanks to rapid data revenue growth. Service revenue (retail and wholesale):
Source: Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 6Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia–Pacific
countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, Mobile population penetration in emerging Asia–Pacific will grow
2011–2021 from 81% in 2015 to 100% by the end of 2021, primarily
because mobile services are becoming more affordable and
coverage is expanding across all the countries in the region.
The market will be dominated by prepaid plans, as customers find
postpaid plans to be prone to bill-shocks and operators compete
mostly via prepaid pricing. However, postpaid subscriptions will
increase because operators are now offering incentives to move
subscribers from prepaid to postpaid; for example, device
subsidies, higher data allowance and OTT offers.
Malaysia is the only country in emerging Asia–Pacific where
active mobile SIM penetration will decline. This is because it is
currently the most-penetrated market in the region (146% in
2015), and we expect the number of multi-SIM users to decline
after operators reduce their aggressive pricing.
Telecoms market liberalisation in Myanmar has resulted in an
increase in mobile service adoption. SIM penetration in
Myanmar will catch up with the region’s average by 2017.
There were several regulatory actions around deactivation of
unregistered SIMs in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand and
Vietnam during the period between 2014 and 2015. This
negatively affected their SIM penetration rates, but they will
grow slowly over the forecast period.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 14Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS
INDIA
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA
THAILAND
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 29Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About the authors
Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the
Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing,
MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid
Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous
projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and
enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.
Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore
office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia–
Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative
and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS
Business School, Singapore.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 30Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
communications and digital service providers, vendors,
financial and strategic investors, private equity and
Consumer infrastructure funds, governments, regulators,
and SME Regulation broadcasters, and service and content providers.
services and policy
Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
Digital
facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
economy
We are future-focused and help clients understand the
Transaction
Enterprise challenges and opportunities that new technology brings.
and IoT support
RESEARCH
Regional
Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the
markets
Strategy different services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
Telecoms and planning
software and We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
networks technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 31Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Research from Analysys Mason
We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range
of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.
PROGRAMMES
Mobile Services
Mobile Devices
Fixed Broadband Services PROGRAMMES
Convergence Strategies Large Enterprise Voice and Data Connectivity
PROGRAMMES
Video Strategies Large Enterprise Emerging Service Opportunities
Network Investment Strategies Small and Medium Enterprise Strategies
Network Traffic IoT and M2M Solutions
Spectrum IoT Platforms and Technology
Enterprise
and IoT
Consumer
PROGRAMMES Network services
Service Assurance investment PROGRAMMES
Service Delivery Platforms strategies Digital Economy Strategies
Next-Generation Wireless Networks Future Comms
Network Orchestration Digital
Software-Controlled Networking economy
Digital Experience
Customer Care
Revenue Management Telecoms Regional
PROGRAMMES
Global Telecoms Forecasts
Analytics
Service Fulfilment
software markets Asia–Pacific
Telecoms Software Market Shares and Middle East and Africa
Software Forecast and Strategy networks European Country Reports
European Core Forecasts
European Telecoms Market Matrix
www.analysysmason.com/research
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 32Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Consulting from Analysys Mason
For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the
world to make the most of their opportunities.
EXPERTISE EXPERTISE
Performance analysis Radio spectrum
Technology optimisation auction support
Commercial excellence Radio spectrum
Consulting Transformation services
Performance
management
portfolio improvement
Spectrum
EXPERTISE policy and
Policy development and response
Margin squeeze tests
auction
Analysing regulatory accounts
support
Expert legal support Regulation Transaction
EXPERTISE
Media regulation support Market research
Postal sector costing, pricing and regulation
Regulatory economic costing Market analysis
EXPERTISE
Business strategy and planning
Net cost of universal service Commercial due diligence
Strategy Market sizing and forecasting
Regulatory due diligence
Technical due diligence
and Benchmarking and best practice
planning National and regional broadband
strategy and implementation
To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 33Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JANUARY 2017
Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 • Email: research@analysysmason.com • www.analysysmason.com/research • Registered in England No. 5177472
© Analysys Mason Limited 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any
client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.
Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the
normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark.
Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for
loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017You can also read
