Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018

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Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Metsä Board Corporation
Investor presentation
January – December 2018
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Contents

            This is Metsä Board                                3
            Main contributors in Metsä Board’s profitability   15
            Operating environment and demand drivers           21
            Results for Q4 and FY 2018                         26
            Sustainability and product safety                  38
            Research and Development                           51
            Owners and management                              61
            Contact information                                64

    Investor presentation
2
    1–12/2018
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Investment highlights of Metsä Board

                                                                            Sales split                            Sales split
                                                                            by product                           by market area
                   • We are pure-play paperboard company
                     focused on premium fresh fibre                  Market                                          APAC
                                                                                          Folding
                     paperboards                                      pulp                boxboard
                                                                                                                      8%
                                                                     18 %                 56 %
                   • Global trends, e.g. sustainability and
                     urbanization drive the demand for                                               Americas
                                                                                                                                  EMEA
                                                                             FY 2018:                   19 %          FY 2018:
                     ecological and lightweight packaging                   EUR 1,944m                               EUR 1,944m   74 %

                   • We have a strong market position …           White
                                                              kraftlainer
                   • … and good control of wood raw                 26 %
                     material and self-sufficiency in pulp
                                                                                   Our total paperboard capacity is

                                                                                     2m tonnes/year
                                                                                                of which
                                                                                     1/3 are white kraftliners and
    Investor presentation
3
    1–12/2018                                                                            2/3 folding boxboard
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Our light, pure and safe paperboards have various
end-uses…

Folding boxboards         Food service boards          White kraftliners

Packaging solutions for   Solutions for food service   Retail-ready tray and
consumer goods                                         point-of-sale solutions
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
… and we have a broad customer base

                                               BRAND OWNERS

                                  CONVERTERS
                                                              CORRUGATED BOX
                                                              MANUFACTURERS
                                      MERCHANTS

                            FOLDING BOXBOARD                  WHITE KRAFTLINERS

    Investor presentation
5
    1–12/2018
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Global trends driving the demand for fresh fibre paperboards

Globalisation &     Sustainability     Food safety          E-commerce
urbanisation
                    We use only        We have good         Our paperboards
We offer            renewable fresh    control of raw       offer a strong
recyclable          fibres from        materials, which     promotion and
products that are   sustainably        guarantees purity    branding
ideal for the       managed            and safety in food   experience
circular economy    northern forests   contact uses
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
We have a leading position in Europe in our
                  main products
                     Folding boxboard                      White kraftliner
                                                                                       • Regional sales split of
                         in Europe                           in Europe                   paperboard deliveries:
                   Total capacity 3.8m tonnes          Total capacity 2.1m tonnes
                                                                                             • 70% EMEA
                                                                                             • 23% Americas
                      Others                  Metsä        Others              Metsä
                                                                                             • 7% APAC
                                              Board   #5                       Board
                                               #1                               #1     • In APAC we focus on high-
                    #5

                    #4
                                 35%                  #4
                                                                32%                      quality FBB segment
                                                                                       • We are the largest European
                                                                                         importer of FBB to US

                            #3
                                                           #3                          • We are #1 in coated white
                                         #2                               #2
                                                                                         kraftliners globally

    Investor presentation
7
    1–12/2018
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
We have good control of wood raw materials,
                  from forests to pulp and board production
                •       High availability of northern wood
                •       Consistent quality of fibres that are tailor-made for the end products

                                                                  METSÄ GROUP

                                                           METSÄLIITTO COOPERATIVE
                                           Group’s parent company, owned by 104,000 Finnish forest owners

                            METSÄ                METSÄ                   METSÄ                 METSÄ              METSÄ
                            FOREST               FIBRE                   WOOD                  BOARD              TISSUE

                     Wood supply and       Pulp and sawn          Wood products         Paperboard          Tissue and
                     forest services       timber                                                           cooking papers

                                                                   METSÄ BOARD
                                                                    OWNS 24.9%

                                                       Through Metsä Fibre’s ownership Metsä
                                                         Board’s annual net pulp balance is
    Investor presentation
8
    1–12/2018
                                                            600,000 tonnes long in 2019
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
Our production is close to our main raw material
                            Total paperboard capacity:                             Our net balance in pulp in 2019,
                   Folding boxboard (FBB): 1,345,000 t/a                           including the 24.9% ownership in
                      White kraftliner (WKL): 675,000 t/a                          Metsä Fibre, is 600,000 t/a
                                                            Wood sourced from
                                                            Finland, Sweden,
                                        Kemi                Baltics and Russia.   Äänekoski
                                        425,000 t/a WKL                           255,000 t/a FBB
                                        610,000 t/a Pulp*                         1.3 million t/a Pulp*

                                        Husum, SWE                                Simpele
                                        400,000 t/a FBB                           290,000 t/a FBB
                                        250,000 t/a WKL
                                        730,000 t/a Pulp

                                        Kaskinen                                  Joutseno
                                        370,000 t/a BCTMP                         330,000 t/a BCTMP
                                                                                  690,000 t/a Pulp

                                        Kyro                                      Tako
                                        190,000 t/a FBB                           210,000 t/a FBB

               *Metsä Fibre mill
    Investor presentation
9
    1–12/2018
Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation - January - December 2018
We have been growing well above average market growth rate
during past years …

                Metsä Board’s annual paperboard deliveries, CAGR 2013–2017: 12%
                2 000

                1 500

                                                                                             Annual global
 1,000 tonnes

                                                                                         demand growth for
                1 000                                                                      folding boxboard
                                                                                         and white kraftliner
                                                                                          is estimated to be
                 500                                                                              3%

                   0
                         2013   2014            2015      2016            2017   2018
                                   White kraftliner    Folding boxboard                 Source: Metsä Board´s own research

 Investor presentation
 1–12/2018
…driven by capacity increases

                                     Capital expenditure and depreciation           Investments in growth during 2011–2018:

                              180                                                   2018       New baling line in Kaskinen BCTMP mill:
                                                                                               30,000 new BCTMP capacity
                              150
                                                                                               New sheeting line in Äänekoski (to be in
                                                                                               production 9/2019)
                EUR million

                              120

                              90                                                    2017       New extrusion coating line in Husum:
                                                                                               100,000 t/a PE coating capacity
                              60
                                                                                    2015–16    New folding boxboard production line in
                              30                                                               Husum: 400,000 t/a of FBB and linerboard
                                                                                               production line conversion: 250,000 t/a of
                               0                                                               WKL
                                    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
                                                                                    2011–12    Debottlenecking in Simpele, Äänekoski and
                                        Maintenance capex      Growth capex
                                                                                               Kyro mills: total 150,000 t/a of FBB
                                        Depreciation

     Investor presentation
11
     1–12/2018
In medium term, we aim for moderate growth
                    with a strong focus on profitability
                    Financial targets:
                    Annual growth in total                             Comparable ROCE, %                        Net debt /
                    paperboard deliveries, %                           Target > 12%                              comparable EBITDA
                    Target is to exceed the relevant market                                                      Target < 2.5x
                    growth, 3% / year

                                                  15%
                                                                                                       14,4                      2,0
                             13%                                                                                1,8
                                       12%                                      11,3           11,2
                   10%
                                                                        9,1                                              1,2
                                                                                        8,1                                             1,2
                                                                                                                                               1,0

                                                               2%

                  2014       2015      2016      2017         2018     2014    2015    2016   2017    2018      2014    2015     2016   2017   2018

                                                                         Dividend policy
                                                              We aim to distribute at least 50% of our
12
     Investor presentation                                result for the financial period in annual dividends
     1–12/2018
We have created shareholder value with focused
               strategy
                                                                          CAGR in dividend
                                                                                  +30%
                  Dividend, EUR and payout ratio, %                         in 2012–2018     Enterprise value, EUR million
               0,30                                                               100%
                                                                                             3500
               0,25                                                                          3000
                                                                                  75%
               0,20                                                                          2500

               0,15                                                               50%        2000

                                                                                             1500
               0,10
                                                                                  25%        1000
               0,05
                                                                                              500
               0,00                                                               0%
                         2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018                                     0
                                                                                                    2012   2013    2014    2015    2016    2017   2018
                             Dividend, EUR               Dividend/EPS, %
                                                                                                           Market capitalization, EUR million
                              Note! Year 2018 is a Board’s proposal to AGM
                              to be held on 28 March.                                                      Net debt, EUR million
                              Total distribution consists of a dividend of 0.10
     Investor presentation    and other distribution of equity of EUR 0.19
13
     1–12/2018
Our free cash flow weakened towards end of 2018
                                                                                  Free cash flow in EUR million and % of EBITDA
           • Free cash flow
                                                                                                                           Comparable
                 –      Since 2016 improved FCF as a result of improved           EUR million                              EBITDA 2018     %
                                                                                                                           EUR 344 million
                        profitability, decreased capex and good working           200                                                     80
                        capital discipline
                                                                                  150                                                     60
                 –      FCF weakened towards end of the 2018 as a result
                        of higher capex in Q4 and increased inventories
                                                                                  100                                                     40
                 –      Result share from Metsä Fibre is a non-cash item
                                                                                   50                                                     20
           • Our capital allocation in the near future
                 –      Dividend: supported by good performance                     0                                                     0
                 –      Capital structure: deleveraging continues to levels
                        below 1.0x                                                 -50                                                    -20

                 –      CAPEX: return-based allocation (ROCE above 12%)           -100                                                    -40
                                                                                         2013      2014    2015    2016   2017   2018

                                                                                                FCF, EUR million     FCF/EBITDA,%
14
     Investor presentation      FCF=Cash flow from operations after investments
     1–12/2018
Main contributors in
Metsä Board’s profitability
Favourable price development in paperboards
                                                                              Market price development in Europe
                                                                              Sources: Fastmarkets RISI & Fastmarkets FOEX
                   • Strong demand and limited supply in fresh
                                                                              EUR / tonne
                     fibre paperboards have led to increased
                     price levels                                             1200

                   • Metsä Board’s announced price increases in               1100
                     2018                                                     1000
                             –   FBB: Europe EUR 80/tonne, effective mainly
                                                                               900
                                 from 2019.
                             –   WKL: Twice in Europe and once in the          800
                                 Americas
                                                                               700

                                                                               600

                                                                               500
                                                                                     2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

                                                                                            Folding Boxboard        White-top kraftliner
     Investor presentation
16
     1–12/2018
Strong pulp market supported profitability in 2018

                                                                               Pulp price (PIX) development in Europe
                 •      Higher production and delivery volumes                 Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd
                        from Metsä Fibre supported Metsä
                        Board’s result in 2018                               USD         ------ NBSK PIX Softwood   ----- BHKP PIX Hardwood   USD

                 •      In the long-term, pulp demand is
                        supported by
                             •   Limited new capacity in the coming years
                             •   Restrictions on recycled paper imports in
                                 China
                 •      Metsä Board’s annual net position in pulp
                        is roughly 600,000 tonnes long in 2019

     Investor presentation
17
     1–12/2018
We see cost inflation slowing down

                                                                                                      Metsä Board’s cost split in 2018
                                                                                                      incl. 24.9% share from Metsä Fibre’s costs
                       Cost          Near-term outlook
                       component
                                                                                                                   Other fixed
                       Wood          Prices in Finland and Sweden are expected to remain                             14 %
                                     stable. In the Baltics, the price level will depend on the                                         Wood
                                     demand in export markets                                                                           28 %
                       Logistics     In line with general cost inflation                               Personnel
                                                                                                         13 %
                       Chemicals     In line with or below general cost inflation
                       Energy        Stabilisation following the oil and electricity price hikes in
                                                                                                         Energy
                                     2018                                                                 14 %
                                                                                                                                       Logistics
                       Personnel     Approximately +2% y-on-y, mainly based on collective                                                16 %
                                     agreements                                                                           Chemicals
                                                                                                                            15 %
                       Other fixed   In line with or below general cost inflation
                                                                                                            Total costs in 2018: EUR 1.7 billion
                                                                                                                   (2017: EUR 1.6 billion)
     Investor presentation
18
     1–12/2018
We estimate that profit improvement from Husum is
             slightly higher than our previous estimates
                                               Estimated profitability improvement in 2019 vs. 2016

                                 Original estimate in                      Achieved in               New estimate in
                                   2019 vs. 2016:                         2018 vs. 2016:              2019 vs. 2016:
                                  EUR 100 million                         EUR 90 million            EUR 110–120 million

              Our estimate is based on
                                                                                     Initial estimate communicated in 2017
              • Changed market environment since 2017
                             •    Positive from market pulp prices and SEK/EUR
                             •    Negative from wood costs and USD/EUR
              • Estimated potential in 2019 through paperboard pricing
                of EUR 20–30 million
              • Gradual improvement potential also after 2019
     Investor presentation
19
     1–12/2018
Our main profit components and sensitivities
               Component                          Change      Impact on EBIT

               Folding       Price                 +/- 10%    > EUR 100 million
               boxboard

               White         Price                 +/- 10%     > EUR 50 million
               kraftliners

               FX            USD/EUR               +/- 10%       EUR 74 million
                                                                                     Annual FX net transaction exposure is approximately
                                                                                     EUR1.35 bn, of which 55% USD, 37% SEK and % GBP
                             SEK/EUR               +/- 10%       EUR 50 million

               Pulp          Pix price of SW/HW    +/- 10%       EUR 25 million
                             per tonne

               Wood          Price per m3 in       +/-10%       EUR 30 million*
                                                                                     In 2018, Metsä Board sourced 5.5 million m3 wood, of which
                             Finnish mills
                                                                                     37% from Sweden, 28% Finland, 20% Baltics and 15%
                             Price per m3 in       +/-10%        EUR 20 million      Russia. Including the 24.9% share from Metsä Fibre, the total
                             Husum                                                   sourcing was 8.5 million m3
                                                  * incl. ownership in Metsä Fibre
     Investor presentation
20
     1–12/2018
Operating environment
and demand drivers
Paperboard is the packaging material of the future
Growing by 3% per year

           The total packaging market is USD 850 billion       Average annual growth rate of paperboard packaging

                            Glass                                   350
                                          Paperboard                       +3% per year 2017–2022
                   Metal         7%                                 300

                           13%                                      250
                                        36%

                                                           USD bn
                                      USD                           200
                                      300 bn
                                                                    150
                           34%
                                                                    100
                                       10%
                 Plastic                     Other                   50
                                             fibre-
                                             based                    0
                                                                          2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017      2022F
                                                                                                          Source: Smithers Pira
 Investor presentation
 1–12/2018
We have good growth opportunities in premium
                 paperboards
                                                                                                                                   FSB
                                                                                                                                                        36%

                             Americas                                                   EMEA                                       FBB                   APAC
                                                                                                                                                                                 Annual global
                                                                                                                                  Other                                             demand
                                                                                                                             fresh fibre
                                                                                                                                 grades                                           growth for
                                                                         FSB
                                                                                                                                                                                FBB, FSB and
                   FSB
                                   28%                                                                                                                                              WKL is
                   FBB                                                   FBB                  41%                                                                               estimated to be
                 Other                                                  Other                                                 Recycled                                                3%
            fresh fibre                                            fresh fibre                      CWKL                        grades
                                                                       grades                                          38%
                grades                                                                               WKL

                                                                    Recycled                                                                                      WKL
             Recycled                  CWKL                                                      White
                                                             77%      grades                                                                                     White
               grades                    WKL                                                   testliner                                                      testliner
                               White testliner

                    Cartonboard          White linerboard                  Cartonboard              White linerboard                 Cartonboard                White linerboard

Total annual          10 million                 3 million                       10 million                5 million                       22 million                     3 million
    demand:            tonnes                     tonnes                          tonnes                    tonnes                          tonnes                         tonnes

                              FSB = food service board, FBB = folding boxboard, SBS & CUK = other fresh fibre grades, WLC = recycled grades
                              WKL = uncoated white kraftliner, CWKL=coated white kraftliner
     Investor presentation
23                                                                                                                           Source: Metsä Board research based on several sources,
     1–12/2018
                                                                                                                             e.g. CEPI Cartonboard and Containerboard, RISI
We sell globally, but have a regional approach
                   The Americas is the biggest growth area

                   AMERICAS                        EMEA                            APAC
                   SHARE OF TOTAL PAPERBOARD       SHARE OF TOTAL PAPERBOARD       SHARE OF TOTAL PAPERBOARD
                   DELIVERIES IN 2018              DELIVERIES IN 2018              DELIVERIES IN 2018

                   23%                             70%                             7%

               Demand drivers:                 Demand drivers:                 Demand drivers:
               •    Emerging environmental     •     Acceleration in           •    Growing upper and middle
                    considerations                   environmental                  classes, and increased
                                                     commitments and                purchasing power
               •    Trend for lightweight            regulations
                    packaging – but limited                                    •    More brand-aware
                    local capacity in FBB      •     Stricter food safety           consumers
                                                     requirements              •    Continued shift to modern
                                                                                    retail and mobile
                                                                                    commerce

     Investor presentation
24
     1–12/2018
Branding and personalisation
              becoming more important in
              E-commerce
             • Functionality, durability and consumer experience are
               the key words
             • Demand for white kraftliner driven by
                    – Increasing branding of the packaging
                    – Trend towards shipping the product in its own container
                    – Personalisation of boxes, supported by advanced
                      technology in digital printing
             • The global value of E-commerce is expected to grow by
               20% per year on average, increasing its share of the
               retail trade from 10% to 18% in 2017–2021
     Investor presentation                              Sources: eMarketer, Smithers Pira
25
     1–12/2018
Results for
Q4 and FY 2018
Key financials
                                                                        Change                     Change
                                                       Q4/18   Q3/18     Q4/18                     2018 vs
                                                                       vs. Q3/18   2018    2017     2017

              Sales                           EUR, m    458     475      -4%       1,944   1,849    5%

              EBITDA*                         EUR, m     81      84      -4%         344    289     19%

              Operating result*               EUR, m     60      64      -6%         252    194     30%

                % of sales                      %       13.1    13.4                13.0    10.5
              Result before taxes*            EUR, m     56      60      -6%         230    157     46%

              Earnings per share               EUR      0.14    0.16    -13%        0.57    0.42    36%

              ROCE*                             %       13.7    15.0                14.4    11.2
              Capex                           EUR, m     34       11    219%          70     65     7%

              Cash flow from operations       EUR, m     30      54     -44%         151    236     -36%

              IB Net debt, at end of period   EUR, m    335     344      -3%         335    358     -7%

            *comparable

     Investor presentation   1–
27
     12/2018
Q4 2018 in summary
                   (vs. Q3 2018)

                   • Paperboard delivery volumes decreased due to
                     seasonality
                   • Average selling prices of folding boxboard and white
                     kraftliners rose slightly
                   • Increased uncertainty in the pulp market weakened
                     pulp prices and decreased delivery volumes,
                     particularly in China
                   • Machinery breakdown in Husum pulp mill had an
                     impact also on paperboard production
                   • New baling line was taken in use at Kaskinen BCTMP
                     mill
     Investor presentation
28
     1–12/2018
Seasonality impacted on Q4 paperboard delivery
                       volumes
                                                                      White kraftliner       Folding boxboard
                                 500

                                 400                                                                   161
                                                       173         170                      171                    149           134
                                        163                                     152
                  1,000 tonnes

                                 300

                                 200
                                                       304         299                      297        328         297
                                        265                                     276                                              293
                                 100

                                   0
                                       Q1 2017       Q2 2017     Q3 2017      Q4 2017     Q1 2018    Q2 2018    Q3 2018         Q4 2018

                                                        1–12/2017:               2018 vs. 2017 :             1–12/2018:
                                                  FBB: 1,144,000 tonnes            FBB: +6%            FBB: 1,215,000 tonnes
                                                  WKL: 658,000 tonnes              WKL: -7%             WKL: 615,000 tonnes
29
     Investor presentation                       Total: 1,803,000 tonnes          Total: +1.6%        Total: 1,830,000 tonnes
     1–12/2018
Delivery volumes in folding boxboard increased
                 year-on-year
               Folding boxboard (FBB) deliveries in 2018 (2017)           White kraftliner (WKL) deliveries in 2018 (2017)
               tonnes                                                     tonnes
                                  APAC
                                                                                             4k (14) ↓
                                                                                             APAC
                                  119k    ↑
                                  (116)                                    Americas

             Americas                     10%
                                                                            173k
                                                                            (187)
                                                                                  ↓
              252k
              (232) ↑                                        EMEA                      28%                     EMEA
                                  21%                        844k    ↑                                          439k   ↓
                                                             (796)                                       72%   (457)
                                                69%

                                       Total FBB deliveries                           Total WKL deliveries
                                   1,215,000 (1,144,000) tonnes                     616,000 (658,000) tonnes

     Investor presentationTotal   FBB capacity 1,345,000 tonnes in 2019    Total WKL capacity 675,000 tonnes in 2019
30
     1–12/2018
Weakened pulp market impacted negatively on Q4 result

                        Sales                                                                 Comparable operating result
                        EUR million                                                           EUR million and % of sales
                                                                                                    80                                      14,0 %                            16%
                        500                                                                                                                                   13,4 % 13,1 %
                                                                                                                                   12,1 %
                                                                                                                                                     11,4 %
                        400                                                                         60   10,2 %           10,5 %                                              12%
                                                                                                                  9,2 %

                                                                                      EUR million
          EUR million

                        300
                                                                                                    40                                                                        8%
                        200
                                                                                                    20                                                                        4%
                        100
                              445      474     479    451   492   519    475    458                       45       44      50        54      69       59       64     60
                          0                                                                         0                                                                         0%
                              Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18                            Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18

                                        1–12/2017:                  1–12/2018:                                      1–12/2017:                            1–12/2018:
                                      EUR 1,849 million           EUR 1,944 million                               EUR 194 million                       EUR 252 million
                                                                                                                  (10.5% of sales)                      (13.0% of sales)

     Investor presentation
31
     1–12/2018
ROCE is above the target level
              FY 2018 ROCE was 14.4% (2017: 11.2)

             16%

             14%
                                                            Target: 12%
             12%

             10%

              8%

              6%

              4%

              2%

              0%
                         Q1/16   Q2/16   Q3/16   Q4/16   Q1/17   Q2/17    Q3/17     Q4/17   Q1/18   Q2/18   Q3/18   Q4/18

                                                     Comparable ROCE-%, Quarterly
     Investor presentation
32
     1–12/2018
Capex and increased inventories had a negative
                       impact on cash flows in Q4 2018
                                                                                                                                                                          250
                       250

                       200                                                                                                                                                200

                       150                                                                                                                                                150
                                                                                              106
         EUR million

                                                                                                                                                                                 EUR million
                       100                                                                          79                                                                    100
                                          67                                         68 59
                                               49   55                                                                                  54
                                                                        37                                              36                    43                          50
                        50                                    26                 2                        30                  23                       30
                                                         17                                                    20
                                                                   7
                         0                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                              -3
                        -50   -22                                                                                                                                         -50
                                    -72

                       -100                                                                                                                                               -100
                              Q2/16       Q3/16     Q4/16     Q1/17      Q2/17       Q3/17    Q4/17        Q1/18         Q2/18          Q3/18           Q4/18

                                               Cash flow from operations, quarterly                 Free cash flow, quarterly
                                               Cash flow from operations, rolling 12 months         Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
     Investor presentation
33
     1–12/2018                                                                                                 Free cash flow = Cash flow from operations - investments
Net debt at the year end was EUR 335 million and
                         leverage at 1.0x

                         600                                                                                                   3,0
                                                                                        Net debt / EBITDA target level:
Debt and its maturity
                                                                                            Metsä Board’s both credit ratings are investment grade
                     31 December 2018
                                                                                             Rating agency          Rating and            Last update
            • Total interest-bearing debt on 31 December was                                                           outlook

              EUR 447 million (12/2017: EUR 577 million)                                     S&P Global                   BBB-                 02/2018
                                                                                                                         stable      Upgrade from BB+
            • On January 2019 Moody’s upgraded Metsä Board to                                Moody‘s investor             Baa3                01/2019
              investment grade, Baa3, outlook stable                                         services                    stable      Upgrade from Ba1

                                            Interest-bearing debt maturity profile 31 December 2018
                           250

                           200
             EUR million

                           150

                           100

                           50

                            0
                                 2019                 2020                     2021              2022–26                      2027
                                        Bonds        Loans from financial institutions    Pension loans         Other loans
     Investor presentation
35
     1–12/2018                   Company has an undrawn revolving credit facility of EUR 150 million maturing in 2020
Metsä Board’s rating history 2011–2017
               Also Moody’s upgraded to investment grade in 2019

                                                      Investment grade

     Investor presentation
36
     1–12/2018
Near-term outlook

               Q1 2019 vs. Q4 2018
               • Paperboard delivery volumes are expected to
                 increase slightly
               • FBB prices are expected to rise
               • Positive impact from FX
               • Lower average pulp prices

               • Planned maintenance shutdown in Q1 at
                 Metsä Fibre’s Bioproduct mill in Äänekoski
               • Uncertainty continues in the global economy

     Investor presentation
37
     1–12/2018
Sustainability and
                                       product safety

Investor presentation   1–12/2018
By 2030 we           Cities cover 2% of
                                                   300 million tons of
      will be 8.6          theBy  2030
                               land     webut
                                      area
         billion              will be 8.5           plastic produced
                           create   70% of the
                              billion
       people on                                       every year
      this planet            waste globally

                         Outlook for our future?

    At least 8 million        Only 14% of           Curbing global
    tons of plastics             plastic           warming requires
      dumped into              packaging               a drastic
     oceans every             collected for          reduction in
3
          year
      Investor
      presentation
                               recycling              emissions
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“Our comprehensive approach
                                                                          to reducing our environmental
              Sustainability is on                                          impact means looking at all

              everybody’s agenda                                           aspects of our business, how
                                                                          they intersect and how we can
                                                                             integrate new solutions to
                                                                               create meaningful and
                                                                                 sustained change.”
             • Growing consumer awareness:
                                                                               – Starbucks website
               Origin and transparency of
               materials, renewability, resource
               efficiency and recylability
             • Brand owners are committed to
               reducing their carbon footprints:   “We want low-carbon to become
                                                   the new normal, so we’re taking
               Lighter packaging reduces CO2       action to reduce GHG emissions
               emissions across the value chain      throughout our value chain.”

                                                         – Unilever website

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Fresh fibre paperboards offer solutions to major challenges

Increased waste         Replacing fossil-        Reducing carbon     Ensuring food
generation due to       based materials,         footprint           safety
urbanisation            i.e. plastics            The solution:       The solution:
The solution:           The solution:            renewable           pure and safe
Paperboard is           renewable and            energy, efficient   fresh fibres in
recyclable              biodegradable            energy and water    food packaging
– and widely            wood fibre               usage in
recycled                                         production
Wood is the main raw
                        material for Metsä Board

                        • Metsä Board sources its
                          wood mainly from Finland
                          and Sweden (65 %)
                        • All wood used is 100%
                          traceable and comes from
                          sustainably managed forest
                          sources ensuring the bio-
                          diversity and recreational use
                          of forests
                        • 79% of wood sourced is
                          certified (remaining 21 % from
                          controlled forest sources)

Investor presentation
1–12/2018
Finland – the largest forest cover in Europe

                                                                          The area of Finland

                                                                           5%          Cities, villages and roads
                                Annual growth of Finnish forests is       10%
                  100+
                   MILLION M3
                                over 100 million m 3 – more than ever
                                                                          10%
                                                                                       Fields and agricultural use

                                                                                       Lakes and rivers

                                Forests grow more than they are used,
                                annual harvesting 72 million m 3 (2017)

                                Four seedlings are planted for each
                                harvested tree                            75%          Forest

                                Over 20% of the Finnish export comes
                                from forest-based products

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Metsä Board has decreased
its process water use by
20% since 2010

• Metsä Board uses only
  surface water in its processes
• Water is been recirculated
  in processes several times
• 99% of the water used is
  returned back to the close-by
  waterways after thorough
  purification
Lighter packaging reduces CO2 emissions across the
value chain – Our fossil CO2 emissions per product tonne
have reduced by almost 50% since 2009

  Less energy, water and
  raw material consumed

                                          Less waste
                                          generated

                           Less
                           transport
                           weight
Primary energy used in 2018
                                                                                                                                           (total 12.0 TWh)
              Our energy efficiency has improved
                                                                                                                      Fossil-based
              by almost 12% during 2009-2018                                                                                  18 %

                                                                                                                                                                Renewable,
                                                                                                                                                                mainly
                                                                                                                                                                wood-based
                                                                                                                         Nuclear
                                                                                                                                                                55 %
                                                                                                                          power
               • Over 80% of primary energy we use is fossil free                                                          27 %

               • After OL31) starts up, we will be nearly self-sufficient in
                 electricity in Finland
                                                                                                                               Electricity sourced in 2018
                             − Including the electricity used in Husum mill,                                                          (total 2.4 TWh)
                               self-sufficiency will be nearly 80%                                                                      Outsourced
                                                                                                                                        generation
               • Metsä Board’s shareholding in PVO2) is 3.2%                                                                               3%                 Own
                                                                                                                                                              generation
                             − Fair value as per 31 December 2018 was EUR 266 million                                              3)
                                                                                                                                                              21 %
                                                                                                                    Purchased
                                                                                                                     electricity
                                                                                                                         44 %
                                                                                                                                                                Through
                                        1)   Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant                                                                                      PVO
                                                                                                                                                                shareholding
                                        2)   Pohjolan Voima Oyj is a non-listed public limited liability company.                                               32 %
                                             It supplies electricity and heat for its shareholders at cost price
     Investor presentation              3)   Out of 44% share of purchased energy, 14% is from Metsä Fibre
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We are committed to high performance on sustainability

               RAW MATERIALS AND                             RESOURCE EFFICIENCY                                                 STAKEHOLDERS
               SUPPLY CHAIN                                  AND ENVIRONMENTAL                                                   AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
                                                             IMPACTS
                Share of certified wood:                     Fossil CO2 emissions per product tonne
                                                             2009–2020:                                                          Coverage of Code of Conduct training:
               TARGET             PERFORMANCE 2018
                                                             TARGET              PERFORMANCE 2018                                TARGET                   PERFORMANCE 2018
               >80%               79%                        -30%                -48%                                            100%                     97%
                                                             Energy efficiency improvement                                       Lost-time accidents frequency annually
                                                             2009–2020:                                                          (LTA1: 7.5): *
                                                             TARGET              PERFORMANCE 2018                                TARGET                   PERFORMANCE 2018

                                                             12%                 11.7%                                           -10%                     +15.9%
                                                                                                                                 *Long-term target is zero accidents.
                                                             Process water use per product tonne
                                                             2010–2020:                                                          Sickness absenteeism:
                                                             TARGET              PERFORMANCE 2018                                TARGET                   PERFORMANCE 2018

                                                             -17%                -20%
Food safety is growing its
               importance

              • Health and safety aspects are strongly emerging in
                food packaging
              • Purity and safety have become critical factors, also for
                consumers
              • Growing worry about e.g. fluorochemicals or mineral oil
                migration from recycled packaging into foodstuffs set
                stricter demands on packaging materials
              • Packaging’s strength and durability are non-negotiables
                to reduce food waste

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Packaging made from recycled material

                                                                                     Global
                                                                                 restrictions in
                                                                                   the use of
  Recycled fibre                      Recycling would                          recycled fibres in
   packaging is                           end in few                               direct food
    suitable for                       months without           In food              contact
                     We promote                                packaging
   many goods                         fresh fibre inflow
                        circular                              mineral oil
                       economy                              migration pose
                    providing vital                         a health hazard
                        material                           in recycled fibre
                   to the recycling
                          loop
Paperboard adds value to packaging
                  A detailed consumer study with cherry tomatoes was carried out in Finland by Sense N Insight,
                  Luke (Natural Resources Institute Finland) and Metsä Board

                  Results and findings:
                  • Consumers regard paperboard as a more responsible choice than plastic packaging - willingness to pay more for it
                  • Paperboard cartons preserved the cherry tomatoes at least as well as the plastic equivalent
                  • The climate effect of a recycled PET container was calculated at six times higher than the average value for the
                    paperboard cartons

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Research and Development
Our key product development focus areas
               LIGHTWEIGHTING                         BARRIER BOARDS
                 • Improved BCTMP                     • Dispersion barriers
                 • Microfibrillated cellulose (MFC)   • Bio-based raw materials
                 • Strength additives

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We achieve high bending stiffness
            from a strong outer layers and a
            thick and light inner layer

               Top coating
                                    Bleached chemical pulp

                                    High yield pulp (BCTMP)
                                    or groundwood pulp

                                    Bleached chemical pulp

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The role of packaging is to promote the brand and
                              protect the product – in a cost-effective way

                                                                                                    Metsä Board’s
                                                    Solid bleached board                            folding boxboard
                                                    (SBB)
     PROMOTION
                 Brightness

                                                                                 Folding boxboard
                                                                                 (FBB)

                                             Coated unbleached kraft
                                             (CUK)

                                White lined chipboard
                                (WLC)

                                                                           PROTECTION
      Investor presentation                                                  Stiffness
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High-yield pulp makes the difference between folding boxboard
and other grades …

Light weight         High strength and   High brightness   Consistent quality
– better yield       bending stiffness   and smoothness    – improved
and sustainability   – secure            – excellent       production
                     protection          printability      efficiency
… and leave more trees standing

                    SBS                                                          =
                    (100% chemical pulp)
                                              5 m3 of wood per tonne of pulp

                        Metsä Board FBB
                        (up to 70% BCTMP,                          =
                        30% chemical pulp )
                                              3.4 m3 of wood per tonne of pulp

Investor presentation
1–12/2018
Lighter-weight paperboards: Better with Less
               The weights equal to a print job of 30 000 sheets on a standard size printing press

                                                                                               Metsä Board
                                                                                               lightweight paperboard

                                                                                Average FBB –
                                                                                Folding boxboard

                                                              SBB –
                                                              Solid bleached board

                                      WLC –
                                      White lined chipboard

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Brand-owners seek more
                sustainable packaging solutions

                • Fresh fibre paperboards can help replace non-
                  renewable packaging materials
                • Metsä Board launched a new eco-barrier paperboard in
                  2018
                       – Developed especially for food service use with short food
                         contact time and when light grease resistance is sufficient
                       – The board recently achieved an industrial compostability
                         certification

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Barriers preserve packed products and the package
                                                                                         Packed product
              Barriers reducing waste have a
                                                                                         H2O, Fats, CO2, Acids,
              huge positive total effect on                 Light, O2, H2O                 Alcohols, Aromas

              environment
                                                                   Light, O2, H2O, Aromas/Odor

              Barriers are inbuild in many competing      Influence from
              materials e.g. plastics, metals but those    environment              Monomers, additives,
                                                                                     oxidation products
              have other issues
                                                                         CO2, H2O, N2, Aromas/Flavor
              Often needed are water, moisture and
              grease barriers and they are in the focus
              of Metsä Board’s development                                              Packaging material
                                                                    Barriers protect product
                                                                       and/or packaging

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Getting familiar with terminology:
              Barrier boards types

                Examples of materials used in coating
                                              BIODEGRADABLE                                             Note!
                                                                                                  Biobased material
                                                        PVA (polyvinyl alcohol)                           =
                             PLA (polylactide): often

                                                                                   NON-BIOBASED
                                                        PBS (polybutylene                         Renewable material
                             based on corn starch
                                                        succinate)
               BIOBASED

                                                                                                          ≠
                                                                                                    Compostable
                                                                                                          ≈
                                                        PE: made from fossil raw
                             Green PE: made from
                                                        materials, used in                          Biodegradable
                             biomaterials
                                                        extrusion coating

                                            NON-BIODEGRADABLE
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Owners and management
Market cap and ownership distribution
                Metsä Board shares (METSB, METSA) are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki

               Market cap and share of foreign owners                                Ownership distribution
               31 December 2018                                                      31 December 2018
               EUR million                                               %
                                                                                    Foreign
                 3 000                                                   25         owners
                                                                                     21 %
                 2 500                                                   20
                 2 000                                                                                          Metsäliitto
                                                                         15
                 1 500                                                                                         Cooperative
                                                                                                                  41 %
                                                                         10   Domestic
                 1 000
                                                                               private
                   500                                                   5    investors
                                                                                18 %
                       0                                                 0
                             2013   2014   2015   2016    2017    2018

                                     Market cap, EUR million                                    Domestic
                                                                                               institutional
                                     Share of foreign owners, %                                 investors
                                                                                                  20 %

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Metsä Board Corporate Management Team

                              Mika Joukio                  Jussi Noponen                                                Sari Pajari
                              CEO                          CFO                                                          SVP, Marketing and Sales

                              Chairman of CMT since 2014   Member of CMT since 2016                                     Member of CMT since 2011
                              MG employee since 1990       MG employee since 2000                                       MG employee since 2007
                              Share ownership: 250,000     Share ownership: 58,000                                      Share ownership: 51,500

                                                           Harri Pihlajaniemi
                             Ari Kiviranta                 SVP, Production                                              Susanna Tainio
                             SVP, Development                                                                           SVP, HR
                                                           Member of CMT since 2017
                             Member of CMT since 2014      MG employee in 2001-2004                                     Member of CMT since 2015
                             MG employee since 1993        and since 2017                                               MG employee since 2011
                             Share ownership: 40,000       Share ownership: no ownership                                Share ownership: 31,358

                                                                                           Share ownerships are B-shares.
     Investor presentation                                                                 MG = Metsä Group
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Contact information

                 Katri Sundström
                 Vice President, Investor relations
                 Tel +358 400 976 333
                 katri.sundstrom@metsagroup.com

                 Metsä Board Corporation
                 P.O. Box 20
                 02020 Metsä, Finland
                 www.metsaboard.com

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Disclaimer
               This presentation includes forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,”
               “estimate,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “aim,” “target,” “might,” or, in each case, their negative, or any similar expressions
               identify certain of these forward-looking statements. Others can be identified from the context in which the statements are
               made. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Although we
               believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, actual results may differ, even
               materially, from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We urge presentation participants not to
               place undue reliance on such statements.
               The information and views contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to
               change without notice. Metsä Board does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking
               statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent legally required.
               Viewers should understand that this presentation does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or
               subscribe for Metsä Board’s securities anywhere in the world or an inducement to enter into any investment activity
               relating to the same. No part of this presentation should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract
               or commitment or decision to invest in Metsä Board securities whatsoever. Potential investors are instructed to acquaint
               themselves with Metsä Board’s annual accounts, interim reports and stock exchange releases as well as other information
               published by Metsä Board to form a comprehensive picture of the company and its securities.
               Metsä Board publishes inside information according to Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) and rules of the Nasdaq Helsinki.

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