Market trends For week ending February 11, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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market trends For week ending February 11, 2022
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce
Market Overview
Last weekend the entire state of Florida experienced freezing MARKET ALERT
• Avocados – ESCALATED
temperatures due to a cold front pushed through the eastern
• Bananas – ESCALATED
seaboard. It brought overnight temps and wind chills below • Brussel Sprouts – ESCALATED
freezing for several hours Saturday and Sunday. From the initial • Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
reports we have been hearing, the crops immediately impacted • Corn- EXTREME
have been beans, corn, hot pepper, lettuce, eggplant, and grape • Eggplant - ESCALATED
tomatoes, there are still several growers assessing damage and • Garlic – EXTREME
will continue to receive updates this week. As far as the core • Ginger – EXTREME
tomato items (Rounds and Romas) the long-term effects will • Grapes – EXTREME
certainly be seen over the next few weeks and we could see some • Green Beans- EXTREME
very active markets from late February through March. • Green Onions - ESCALATED
• Limes – EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE
The lime market continues to • Mushrooms - EXTREME
struggle Pre-Super Bowl where • Pineapple – ESCALATED
we will continue to see some • Zucchini & Yellow Squash (East) - ESCALATED
Force Majeure activity, as well
as extreme market conditions
WATCH LIST
• Sugar Snap and Snow Peas
because of strong demand and • Florida Fruit and Veg
extremely light volume crossing
from Mexico. Grapes from Chile
are very short as the season is
late getting started and space Chopped romaine has improved, but keep an eye out for
on vessel lines is limited. Banana mildew damage
volume has firmed up and we Iceberg blends are looking okay with some lots dealing
are seeing shippers struggle with discolored blister and tip burn making its way into
with color; strong demand in occasional lots
all sectors will keep shippers
Broccoli florets are looking good with minimal defects.
behind on color until they can get
I am seeing some immature product being packed
ahead of the shortfalls. Volume is
expected to remain light through Arcadian/Tuscan is looking very nice with very little
March due to cooler weather damage.
in South America. To further Spinach is starting to look better. I am still seeing
complicate this banana market, a small number of cotyledons. Sizing is a bit
we have been informed there is inconsistent.
a transportation strike in Guatemala that will certainly hamper
supply on the east coast and Gulf ports. Cauliflower is looking better with very trace mold
Iceberg is still dealing with discolored blister and also mildew. I am adding pictures of current field packed items.
The recent freezes will prolong the damage. Expect packer brand
for the next few weeks at the least.
Romaine is up and down depending on the growing area. Blister
is in some fields as well as mildew. We will be in and out of brand
for the foreseeable future.
Green Leaf is looking good in most lots. Some lots are ribby to
the point of heavy mechanical damage. Not seeing much blister
as of now. Also seeing mildew in some lots.
Processed items are a bit up and down with quality. Freeze
damage will affect items for the next few weeks.
2
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Yuma, AZ Forecast
Apples & Pears Arugula
The market is unchanged. Washington Fuji, Gala, Golden Quality is good this week
Delicious, Granny Smith, and Red Delicious Apples remain
readily available; the crop is dominated by 88- to 113-count Asparagus
sizes. Quality is excellent: sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Peru: The season is pretty much finished. Expecting sporadic
Brix. shipments. Mexico: Volumes are steadily increasing. Quality is
Pears good and demand is steady.
The market is stable with good supplies. Quality is very good
Avocados
Artichokes ESCALATED: The overall market remains firm as volume
Artichokes will have frost damage from recent weather projections were down this week as the crop is yielding less
impacts. This is not unusual for this time of year as cold fruit than projected. Demand remains strong as retailers
nighttime temperatures will affect the artichokes still on the prepare for Super Bowl ads. Growers are calling for higher
plants. Some of the frost areas will turn brown over the next field prices in Mexico for many reasons including higher labor
few days after packing creating some additional discoloration costs, logistics challenges from the farm to the border, and
as well. In addition, there will be a 2-week gap coming at the packaging. Overall quality is outstanding with flavor profile and
end of January so expect the short supply to continue. oil content as expected for this time of year, we should see this
improve as the season progresses. We are beginning to see
a little fruit harvested in California and expect those numbers
to increase weekly. Columbia and Chilean volumes have
been steady. We still see a small to mid-range peak on the
size curve with larger-sized fruit drawing a premium. Jalisco
Update: There has been substantial progress for Jalisco
avocados for the U.S., and we may see them in the market
by Spring of 2022. The Mendez (Summer Hass Variety) crop
is late April/May thru early-August, and the regular season is
September thru February. We expect more plantings at higher
elevations and will likely start to see a year-round supply from
Jalisco within the next several years.
Bananas
The results of the strike in GTM are being felt across the
North and South. Banana volume continues to be tight due
to the cooler temperatures currently being experienced in
the Tropics. While this is an issue every year what further
complicates this this year is the presence of La Nina. La Nina
is causing a lack of precipitation and this lack of precip causes
humidity levels to drop and humidity is needed to assist in the
maturation of the banana.
3
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Beans Blueberries
EAST: FL’s green bean production is spread over several Supply will continue increasing, driven mainly by Central
areas, but none of them were immune to the cold weather Mexico and South America. Central Mexico production
that hit the state Sunday and Monday. Reports vary from lost continues increasing and will be the biggest contributor to
plantings to a slowdown in production, but there was some supply volume throughout February. Baja production is starting
type of damage for most. At this point, growers are working its ramp up, expecting to continue increasing with good yields
through fields, harvesting those with mild damages that can moving forward. Production coming from South America is
be sorted/graded out and walking away from the fields that expected to maintain with high volume for the next few weeks.
were hit harder. Quality is not the greatest on what’s being
harvested this week, as there are bruising, broken bean, and Raspberries
translucency concerns. Look for quality to clean up in another We’ve reached the peak window for winter production; we
week or so. FOBs took another double-digit increase this expect supply to remain steady for two weeks. Looking ahead
week and are at very elevated levels. into mid-February, volume will drop week to week before
WEST: Green bean production remains limited in Mexico as ramping back up into the spring peak in April/May.
cooler nighttime weather has slowed projected increases and
prior low market prices kept some from taking care of their Strawberries
crops and now yields are suffering. It looks like supply is going Overall, we expect volumes to reduce for the next 2-3 weeks.
to stay on the lighter side for another couple of weeks. FOBs We have been observing cooler temperatures across our
have jumped by double digits this week. production regions slowing the rate of fruit maturation. In
Oxnard and Florida, plants are resetting and will return in 2
Berries: weeks. Plants are setting up with a good crop load but will
Blackberries need favorable weather to lend to an uptick in production.
Supply is gradually declining this week and volume will
maintain relatively flat through February. The stability in supply Bok Choy
is driven by the mid-season varieties ramping up towards their Bok Choy volume is expected to be lighter for the next two to
peak production in February. This week supply has slowed three weeks
down a bit due to the colder weather in central Mexico and
California. Broccoli
Supply is steady this week.
Brussels Sprouts
There is a better supply outlook for the coming week in the
sprout category. We will begin a new growing region on the
south-central CA coast and early reports on volume and
quality indicate a good week for production. While demand
appears to be strong, the open market is showing signs of
softening as more acreage comes online from Mexico and
southern CA. This trend will likely persist into mid-February.
Cantaloupe
Market has strengthened, Offshore fruit is arriving on both
coasts with descent supplies but unloading also causing
trouble at ports, the overall quality is good to fair with green to
cream cast and good internal color and sugar. We anticipate
the market to keep steady going forward. There is more large
fruit than small fruit arriving, so we may need to sub up if you
are in need of smaller fruit.
4
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Carrots Cucumbers
ESCALATED - Current demand exceeds predicted supply EAST: Honduras growers continue to bring a fairly steady
while lower than average yields caused by cold wet weather supply of cucumbers to the US. With any remaining FL crops
have limited availability. Rainfall totals in Bakersfield last month finished up by the weekend’s weather, the Honduran fruit
were greater than any December in the last several years. In will be the only Eastern supply until Spring crops get started
addition, shippers are struggling with labor due to COVID and sometime in mid-March. Quality has been up and down on
not having enough workers show daily to pack carrots. the import product, with transportation time and product age
being the contributing factors. FOBs are holding steady.
Cauliflower WEST: Sonora and Sinaloa continue to provide a steady
Supply is expected to be back on budget this week. supply of cucumbers. Some growers will be starting new
Spring crops over the next few weeks, so we’ll continue to see
Celery good quality. There’s been very little rain in the region, so we’re
Steady supplies for us and the industry. Quality is good and not seeing the mildew issues that we would normally start
the market is lower in Oxnard. We are harvesting in Mexico seeing this time of year. FOBs are up significantly this week,
and Oxnard. most likely due to an increase in Eastern demand.
Cilantro Eggplant
Cilantro volume is expected to be on budget this week, and EAST: FL’s eggplant production was already at a seasonal low
the overall quality is very nice. and the frost/freeze did not help the situation. Some acreage
was lost and there were others with damage which will further
Corn shorten supply. We expect minimal volume out of FL until
EXTREME - EAST Supply will remain short this week and is Spring crops get going in late March/April. FOBs are steady,
expected to get tighter due to last week’s weather across but high.
Florida. Many growers are assessing damage to the corn crop WEST: Mainland Mexico’s eggplant production is carrying
and will update us as soon as possible but losses will impact on at mostly consistent levels with nice-quality fruit coming
the markets for the remainder of the winter season. FOB into Nogales. As we move into March and lead up to Easter,
prices remain strong out of Florida as well as crossing through demand will strengthen for the Lent season on this item. FOBs
Nogales while quality remains is marginal. are steady with last week.
English Cucumbers
Supply is stable this week crossing through Nogales and FOB
prices were down this week.
Fennel
Supply remains extremely tight.
Garlic
EXTREME: Domestic supply is also very tight. Shippers are
holding to averages but we expect this volatile market to
continue through next summer.
Ginger
EXTREME: Ginger is very volatile due to very inconsistent
supply and market is higher. Supply remains tight for the
foreseeable future.
5
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Grapes Green Leaf
EXTREME: We are still battling the Import grape deal, ships Delayed start to daily harvest due to cooler than normal
being delayed and very slowly getting unloaded, shortage temperatures. Production in Holtville is good. Quality in the
of packing materials, shipping containers, labor ETC. just a desert is good with a good green color and appearance.
perfect storm that we hope will ease up by middle Feb., The Occasional fringe burn and sizing is 8-10”. Demand is good,
pipeline is empty and Demand Far exceeds Supply. We are and pricing remains steady.
hoping for some fruit again this coming weekend and will do all
we can to cover orders. Iceberg
We have a lot of volume available for the next two weeks.
Green Cabbage Quality has been good. Weights have been on the higher side
Supplies aren’t quite as tight as they have been but still lighter because we are trying to hold acres as opposed to disking.
for the next two to three weeks. Weights are an issue for the The marker is forecasted to stay at current levels for the week.
next two weeks with cooler weather still in the desert.
Red Leaf
Red Cabbage Quality is good although there is some light peel from the
Supplies are good as we are solely packing out of Holtville. current frost. Supply is lighter with some shippers sold out
Quality remains consistent with sizing and overall appearance. through the weekend.
Green Onions Romaine/Romaine Hearts
Supplies are on the light side due to labor issues and ice delays. Romaine and Romaine Heart production supplies are
beginning to trend below budget. We are experiencing some
Honeydew quality issues at the field level ultimately reducing yields but
We are getting some offshore fruit in on both coast as well improving. Plants that are healthy are exhibiting good color,
and quality looks good, across the board. We are also getting texture, and quality overall. We will continue to be subject to
some fruit in from Mexico which is also looking very good. The occasional fringe burn and lighter weights. Overall demand is
sugars are excellent as well as internal color and tight cavity. steady, with slightly better movement on Romaine Hearts.
The market is very strong and has strengthened, we anticipate
things to loosen up by mid-February as we see more arrivals Limes
out of both regions. EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE We are seeing some Force
Majeure activity, as well as a continued extreme market,
Jicama because of strong demand and extremely light volume. We
Steady supply available crossing through McAllen. expect pricing to be at record highs and are anticipating
pro rates if we cannot secure enough fruit at the border for
Kale (Green) contracts based on the logistics issues and record low volume
Bunched Kale supplies are expected to be plentiful for the next for this time of year in Mexico.
few weeks.
Lemons
Market has also strengthened, as we are winding down in
dist.3 (Desert) and will be completely finished in the next 2
weeks. We will then be dependent on Dist. 1 (Central Valley)
which we will probably see the market strengthened more. We
are also seeing some of those same issues that we mentioned
in the oranges, which will also keep the market stronger. We
are peaking on 140’s and larger, therefore keeping the smaller
fruit, on the tight side.
Lettuce:
Butter
Overall volume and quality look to be on budget this week,
although lighter in weights. Delayed start to daily harvest due
to cooler than normal temperatures.
6
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Mushrooms Specialty Citrus
EXTREME Quality is good, although supply is extremely short, The following varieties are available now. Pummelos, Meyer
and the market is higher primarily due to a lack of labor and Lemons, Cara Caras, Oroblancos, Satsuma Mandarins,
shortages in components of growing such as peat moss. We Clementine’s and Blood Oranges.
do expect this trend to continue through the first of the year.
Suppliers are pro-rating customer orders up to 50% just to Parsley (Bunched)
ensure even availability to their customer base. Parsley supplies are expected to be light for the front part of the
week with availability improving daily.
Napa
Volume is expected to be plentiful for the next two weeks. Green Pepper
EAST: As with tomatoes, some of the pepper crops took a hit
Onions from Sunday and Monday’s cold weather. Heavy frost took the
The onion market continues to stay strong at an unprecedented tops out of some of the plants. As a result, newer plantings
fashion on all jumbo sizes of all colors. The Northwest will be stunted with slower production but will likely recover in
continues to ship a smaller size profile, with limited Colossal a few weeks. However, the older plantings will be less likely
and Super Colossal availability. While we do typically see the to bounce back and will be out of play, reducing the overall
market take an increase this time of year, the levels we are acreage. Although there’s not been a lot of harvest activity this
seeing at this point of the year in early January is certainly a week, there is product available, and quality seems to have held
new development. Shrink levels in the Northwest continue to up pretty well. FOBs are steady on jumbo, XL, and L sizes, but
increase at a concerning rate. Growers are concerned about are up significantly on choice fruit.
how the crop will finish storing. What was already a short crop WEST: Both Sonora and Sinaloa are harvesting bells and
to begin with, may not take the storage supply much further supplies are stable this week. All sizes and grades are available
than March out of Idaho/Oregon at this point. In recent years, with mostly good quality, as inventories have cleaned up. FOBs
we have seen Northwest onions into late May with relatively are up significantly on all sizes/grades this week.
strong quality. We are seeing more internal issues (discoloration,
translucency, internal rot) than we ever have at this point in the Jalapeños (Chiles)
season, and this is all related to the extreme heat the onions EAST: The weekend’s cold weather served to further tighten
experienced this past Summer. Unfortunately, there is no way to up an already snug supply of chilies in FL. Cooler temperatures
grade all of this product out at shipping point since it is internal. curtailed harvests on the limited active acreage and there were
This is likely to continue, or worsen, in the coming months. We some reports of damages. We expect another month or so of
are beginning to see Mexican product cross in a small way, and limited supply then a slow start to the Spring season in mid-to
this is expected to increase in the coming weeks as well. The late March, with more volume coming online in April when
country may need the supply from Mexico and Texas more than Plant City gets into the thick of things. FOBs are a mix but are
ever this year. However, even if Mexico crosses heavy volumes relatively steady on the fruit that is available.
on whites and yellows, they generally do not produce enough WEST: Sonora and Sinaloa’s chili pepper crops continue to
red onions to make a big difference supply wise. Red onions provide good volumes and quality on most varieties this week,
are expected to be the shortest of any of the varieties as we with tomatillos being the exception. They are pretty snug,
move into the Spring. but we should see a few more tomatillos as new plantings
get started over the weekend. FOBs are slightly higher on
Oranges jalapenos, moderately higher on tomatillos, and relatively steady
Market has strengthened across the board, especially the 88’s on the other chilies.
and smaller. The rains that we had in later December really
gave the trees and ground a kick start and the fruit is sizing
up, peaking on 72’s ,56, 88’s, we will continue to see fruit
strengthen up. Also, with the rains we are seeing some brown
rot and clear rot issues flare up in the field, we are doing all
we can in the field to kill these spores, but it is a real battle.
With these issues our utilization in some blocks is only about
50%, so this also compounds the supply problem, as we are
not packing that other 50% that was picked in the field. We
expect the market stay very strong going forward until we start
Valencia’s toward the later part of April.
7
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
Red & Yellow Bell Peppers Spinach (Bunched & Baby)
EAST & WEST: As many growers in Central Mexico come Supply and quality are good this week.
to the end of their current crops, we’re seeing this area’s
production decline with just a few high-tech growers still Spring Mix
in significant production. Culiacan farms still have good Supply and quality are good this week.
volumes this week but will see a reduction in harvests over
the next 10-14 days, which is normal for this time in the Squash: Yellow and Zucchini
season. Good-quality product is available but there are some EAST: Squash production continues to be very limited in FL,
less-than-perfect peppers in the market as well. FOBs are especially on yellows. The weekend’s frost/freeze caused
holding steady this week at minimum levels. damage to crops in Immokalee and points north, east and
west. Some of these crops will be finished up and those that
Pineapple are able to recover from the weather will have reduced yields.
Pineapple availability continues to be okay. The size profile is Homestead, which is little further south, wasn’t impacted as
trending to the larger sizes. This is a result of great growing badly but quality is usually just average there and acreage is
conditions. light. There is a little more zucchini around than yellow, but
current quality levels are just okay on both colors. We expect
Potatoes (Idaho) Eastern squash supply to remain on the shy side until Spring
The potato market has stabilized on all sizes at the moment. plantings come online in March and April. FOBs are steady on
It appears to be a bit of a mixed profile depending on the zucchini and up significantly on yellow with both at elevated
different growers around the state. Some are in a larger size levels.
profile, whereas some are heavier to smaller potatoes. Overall, WEST: As new plantings of zucchini slowly come online, we’re
the market has remained relatively ‘flat’ in terms of pricing starting to see better supplies out of Mexico. Yellow squash
this month. We are seeing Non-Size A Potatoes, and #2s is still lagging behind and remains snug. Quality is good on
beginning to tighten back up, while carton supply currently zucchini, but there are some challenges with what little yellow
feels plentiful. A big reason for this has been the logistics squash is available. FOB prices are steady to slightly higher.
challenges over the last several weeks. Growers are now finally
beginning to clean their floors and move inventory as well. This Sweet Potatoes and Yams
should help growers resume normal production, and Non-Size New crop cured is in full swing with heavy shipments over the
A and #2 potato availability should improve some as well. holidays. Growing conditions were optimal for this year’s crop
Despite the current feeling of plentiful Idaho supply, the crop out of North Carolina. Expect a good supply with a wide size
does remain short for the long-term outlook. Especially when variety.
Norkotahs finish and we are shipping Burbanks exclusively.
The Burbank crop is expected to have taken the brunt of the
extreme heat from this past Summer. Generally speaking,
growers do see a decrease in production when switching from
Norkotahs to Burbanks, as the Burbanks do not pack out with
the same level of production than Norkotahs do. The concern
this year is that the drop off will be significant. If that does
take place, we will see a fast upturn in market pricing across
all sizes and grades of potatoes. Processor demand remains
Heightened, and continues to put pressure on the fresh crop
as they are offering record prices for bulk product.
Snow Peas
Guatemala: WATCHLIST Steady/low volume, good quality,
and good demand.
Sugar Snap Peas
WATCHLIST Steady/low volume, fair quality, and steady
demand.
8
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Produce (continued)
TOMATOES MEXICO
EAST Rounds
Mexico continues to offer good volumes of both mature green
Rounds and vine-ripe tomatoes. West Mexico’s vine-ripe production
Sunday and Monday’s freeze/frost event has definitely in areas like Culiacan and Guasave should continue at current
lightened up FL’s tomato production for the short term and levels through most of February with larger sizing for most of
will also have some longer-term impacts. There was damage the time frame. East Mexico and Baja still have some fruit, but
for most producers in the Immokalee area, but crops are not things are in a very light Winter mode for both areas. Quality
a total loss. For example, the tops of plants were burned has been good with no major issues to report. FOBs are up
(frozen) out on some acreage, which will reduce overall yields significantly this week.
by limiting/eliminating the 2nd and 3rd picks. Production has
been minimal so far this week, but there is some product in Romas
the supply pipeline from before the weather event and growers Guaymus, Culiacan and Guasave Roma growers are pumping
will get back in the fields for some crown harvests at the end out good supplies of fruit on a consistent basis. Expect more of
of the week. Overall, we expect light but adequate supplies the same through the month of February. Overall quality is very
for the next 3-4 weeks due to the frost/freeze damage, then nice. FOBs are steady, mostly at minimum levels.
lighter production will continue into March as a result of bloom
drop. Quality was very nice prior to the weather. We could see Grape & Cherry Tomatoes
some quality impacts from the cold over the coming weeks, With most growers moving out of a flush and cooler nighttime
but most harvests will be crown picks which will help keep any temperature slowing maturity, grape tomato volumes in Mexico
trouble at minimal levels. FOBs are up only slightly this week, are a notch lighter this week. There’s still plenty product to meet
despite the weather situation. demand, but we expect lighter production levels until the latter
part of the month. Cherry tomatoes are in the hands of just a
Romas few growers, but there seems to be enough product available to
FL Roma crops will follow a similar pattern to the rounds: meet demand. FOBs are up significantly on clam and bulk pack
lighter but steady harvests for the next few weeks, then light grapes and are mostly steady on cherries.
production in March due to bloom drop. With freeze/frost
affecting the plant tops, the smaller fruit that comes from later Cherry Tomatoes
picks is likely to be more limited over the next several weeks. Good volume and quality available.
Despite the lighter supply, FOBs are steady as Mexico growers
generally set the pricing standards this time of year. Watermelons
Lighter supply continues this week crossing through Nogales
Grape & Cherry Tomatoes and Texas with moderate demand. Quality is good and FOB
FL’s grape tomato harvests look to be lighter for the next prices remain strong this week and offshore supply is limited on
couple of weeks, as the weekend’s cold spell has slowed cartons out of South Florida.
things down. The typical harvest cycle in the Winter usually
lengthens from every 2-3 days to every 4-5 days, but this shot
of cold weather will extend that to every 6–7-day schedule
for the short term, meaning less overall product. Fortunately,
the location of Lipman’s acreage will allow us to recover a little
faster than others, so we expect to back on track in the next
7-10 days. Quality still looks good in the fields, even on some
of the older picks. Like other tomato items, cherry production
is expected to be light, but adequate for the next 10-14 days.
FOBs have inched up slightly on grapes and are steady on
cherries.
9
market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, beef production rose 1.0% but was down 2.2% from the same week last year. Year-to-date beef output is smaller
by 7.1% (y/y). The USDA Choice cutout was mostly flat (w/w), but most beef items are pricing well above a year ago. Beef
packer margins have deteriorated with the increase in cattle prices along with rising feed costs, which should limit any near-
term recovery in output. The USDA is forecasting H1 2022 beef production to be 0.8% smaller (y/y). This could keep the beef
markets firm. November beef imports were 27.7% larger (y/y). Continued strong imports may be needed to temper lean beef
trim seasonal price gains. Since 2011, the average price for 90% import lean beef trim was 0.9% higher in February versus
the prior January. The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Steady Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Short Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Short Higher
Ground Chuck Increasing Short Higher
109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Available Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Available Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Short Higher
116 Chuck (ch) Increasing Short Higher
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Steady Higher
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Short Higher
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Steady Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Increasing Short Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Available Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Short Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Available Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Increasing Short Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Short Higher
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Increasing Short Higher
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Short Higher
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Steady Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Available Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
50% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
65% Trimmings Increasing Steady-Short Higher
75% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
85% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
90% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Steady Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Short Higher
10market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Grains
The soybean complex stole headlines again last week in the grain markets, with the soybeans and soybean oil contracts hitting
six-month highs on Friday. Corn and hard red winter wheat followed suit, and while spring wheat saw a modest recovery on
Friday after some bargain buying, it was still down on the week overall. Back to those soybean reductions, as some analysts
adjusted their 2022 Brazilian soybean exports forecast down 4.5 million tonnes to 85.5 million. Currently, the USDA has Brazil’s
soybean export output penciled in for 94 million for 2022, so we could see a decent reduction in next month’s WASDE report. If
so, expect the soybean and soybean related product markets to remain inflated. Prices USDA, FOB.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Increasing Short Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Steady Higher
Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Steady Lower
Corn, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Increasing Steady Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Short Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Short Lower
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Short Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Steady Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Pinto Beans, lb Increasing Short Higher
Black Beans, lb Steady Steady-Available Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb Decreasing Steady Lower
Dairy
Last week, the spot cheese markets finished down (w/w) with blocks experiencing the lowest weekly average close in 10 weeks.
The CME spot butter market closed lower (w/w), down 9.0%. U.S. spot milk supplies are lagging year-ago levels. Per the USDA,
the domestic dairy cow herd as of Dec. 31 was 0.71% smaller (y/y), and the herd lost 123k head since last May all due to de-
clining milk margins. U.S. milk production for the H1 2022 is forecasted to be up only 0.17% (y/y), which should keep cheese
and butter manufacturing costs high. Some limited operations staffing problems also influenced the dairy markets higher in early
2022. Nonetheless, the price weakness experienced in the cheese and butter markets this past week suggests that the tight milk
supplies may have already been priced-in with cheese blocks hitting $2.0525 and butter hitting $2.8425 earlier this month. Lower
price action for cheese blocks and butter may continue with the respective quarterly pivot models hinting $1.715 for blocks and
$2.200 for spot butter possibly occurring in the nearing weeks. Nonfat-dry-milk prices are firm. Class I Cream (hundredweight),
from USDA.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Steady Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
American Cheese Decreasing Short Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Steady Higher
Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Steady Higher
Monterey Jack Cheese Decreasing Steady Higher
Parmesan Cheese Decreasing Short Lower
Butter (CME) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Short Higher
Whey, Dry Increasing Short Higher
Class 1 Base Steady Short Higher
Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Short Higher
Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Steady Higher
Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
11market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Pork
Last week, pork production rose 4.8% (w/w) but was down 4.2% (y/y). Year-to-date pork output is lower by 12.2% (y/y). Last
week, the weekly average USDA pork cutout was up 3.7% (w/w). Pork output for H1 2022 is projected to be 3.0% smaller
(y/y), which should support the pork markets. Low retail prices are encouraging pork consumption. In December, the aver-
age pork retail price fell 15.1% (m/m) but were still the highest for the month on record. Bacon retail prices were up 16.7%
from the prior year. Weakened demand in response to historically expensive bacon prices should soften wholesale pork belly
prices or at a minimum limit seasonal prices gains that typically occur. Since 2007, the combined February pork belly price
average is 13.2% higher compared to the combined average previous month. Prices USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Increasing Short Higher
Sow Increasing Available Lower
Belly (bacon) Increasing Short Higher
Sparerib (4.25 lb & down) Decreasing Steady Lower
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Steady Lower
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Steady Lower
Loin (bone in) Increasing Short Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Available Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Short Higher
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Steady Higher
Picnic, untrmd Increasing Steady-Available Higher
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Available Lower
42% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
72% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
12market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Poultry
For the week ending Jan. 22nd, chicken slaughter rose 4.3% (y/y), but the average bird weight was down 0.6%(y/y). Ready-to-
cook chicken output declined 10.4% (w/w) and was down 6.6% (y/y). Year-to-date ready-to-cook broiler production is down by
1.3% (y/y), which is disappointing considering that the USDA is forecasting H1 chicken production to be 2.4% more than last year.
Staffing challenges could be compounding the broiler output shortfalls. The boneless skinless chicken breast markets are the
most expensive for this time of year since at least 2009. The quarterly pivot model for wholesale chicken breasts suggests prices
could go to $2.580/lb. in the coming weeks. Wholesale chicken wing prices are also the costliest for the early winter since at
least 2009 but are below $3.000/lb. Still, chicken wing prices usually rise 3.0% in February from the prior month. FOB per pound
except when noted.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Decreasing Steady Higher
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Short Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Short Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Short Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Steady Steady Higher
Legs (whole) Decreasing Steady Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Higher
Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Steady Higher
Thighs, Boneless Increasing Available Higher
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Steady Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Short Higher
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Increasing Steady Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Increasing Short Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Short Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Increasing Short Higher
13market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Seafood
The combined U.S. seafood markets have remained firm and are pricing roughly 20% higher (y/y), but snow crab prices have
been the most expensive, up nearly 50% from year-ago levels. The inflated other meat markets (beef, pork, chicken) are influ-
encing seafood prices higher. Per the USDA, U.S. November shrimp imports were up 17.1% (y/y) and were a record for the
month. Domestic salmon imports for November were 6.4% better than the prior year and the biggest for the month on record.
Expect the seafood markets to remain inflated despite a relatively firm U.S. dollar (which discourages imports), but if the U.S.
economy slows, expect some seafood price depreciation to materialize. Prices FAS monthly imports.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Short Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Cod Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Available Higher
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Steady-Available Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Higher
14market trends
WEek ending February 11, 2022
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Short Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Short Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Steady-Short Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Decreasing Available Higher
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Available Higher
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21
Beef and Veal Decreasing Increasing Increasing
Dairy Increasing Decreasing Increasing
Pork Decreasing Increasing Increasing
Chicken Increasing Increasing Increasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Various Markets
The softs markets last week were mixed but coffee prices rebounded higher on Friday on reports claiming that ICE-monitored
coffee stocks could fall below 1 million bags in the coming months thanks to high transportation costs occurring in these
past few months. Yet, price gains were limited after news that Brazilian coffee farmers have already sold almost a third of their
2022/23 crop, much more than they sold last year at this time. Still, coffee prices will likely remain high. Price bases noted
below.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Steady Higher
Sugar lb ICE Decreasing Available Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Steady Lower
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Honey (clover) lb Decreasing Steady Higher
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