Car sharing unlocked How to get to a 7.5 million shared car fleet in Europe by 2035 - ING Think
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Car sharing unlocked How to get to a 7.5 million shared car fleet in Europe by 2035 ING Economics Department • October 2018
Contents
Car sharing taking off through 21st century technology Executive summary 3
Car sharing was conceived in the 20th century with reports of car sharing schemes dating
back as far as the late 1940s. Success was limited until 21st century technologies such as Chapter 1 | The state of car sharing in Europe 4
(4g) internet, smartphones, apps and car connectivity increased the possibilities of car 1.1 Car sharing provides short term, pay-per-use car access 5
sharing, raising its popularity. 1.2 Fast growing, but still a niche market 6
1.3 High potential triggers expansion 7
How far can car sharing reach? 1.4 Car sharing competes with car ownership and other transport services 8
Cars take 80% of all passenger transport km’s in the EU. For this, a fleet of around 270
million cars is used*. On average 1 out of every 2 Europeans owns a car. These cars are Chapter 2 | The barriers to car sharing 9
parked up to 95% of the time**. Still only a very small percentage of them are shared. 2.1 Most barriers to car sharing are user experience related 10
This report investigates the potential of car sharing in Europe to 2035. We do this through 2.2 Costs – Majority of car owners unlikely to switch 11
desk research, expert interviews and an international consumer survey. Close to 13,000 2.3 Costs – Policy makers can improve cost competitiveness 12
consumers in 13 different European countries were questioned about their thoughts on 2.4 User experience – Improving the service in car sharing 13
car sharing. 2.5 User experience – Autonomous cars to help user experience 14
Chapter 3 | Car sharing growth and impact on Europe’s auto industry 15
3.1 High growth potential in supply of cars 16
3.2 Platforms and technology to unlock demand and supply 17
3.3 Car sharing accelerates after 2025, results in ´peak car´ 18
3.4 Car manufacturers need platform strategy 19
Appendix20
Contact details 21
* Source: Eurostat
** Joint Research Centre Institute for Institute for Energy and Transport European
Commission (Driving and parking patterns of European car drivers 2012)
ING Economics Department 2 Car sharing unlocked • October 2018
Executive summary
Car sharing shows potential... ...but faces barriers to growth
Car sharing is gaining interest across Europe, particularly in major cities, but faces several Our growth scenario leads to a 7.5 million shared car fleet in Europe in 2035, up from an
barriers on the road to success. The user experience needs to improve and make car sharing estimated 370,000 currently. Our analysis suggests that the take-up of car sharing will
more straightforward in order to gain demand. On the supply side, platforms and technology ultimately lead to a peak car moment, at which point the total number of cars in Europe will
development will help generate trust among car owners to share. Only when the owners of fall and new car sales will also decline. Car manufacturers can take a leading role in car sharing
cars are prepared to share their cars will car sharing be able to exploit its potential. by creating their own peer-to-peer platforms and utilise their existing customer network.
How to unlock supply and demand
Demand Supply
30% of Europeans with Most cars are parked 95%
a driving licence show of the time. Yet still only
interest in car sharing. But 0.13% of all passenger cars
car sharing faces heavy in Europe are shared. The
competition. ING International Survey
Technology can assist to shows 6 out of 10 people
• Ride hailing is on the rise.
overcome barriers in both are willing to share their
• Most of all people take
supply and demand car for money. But trust is
pride in having their own
car with two out of three essential for car owners to
Connected cars can help overcome do so in practice.
Europeans attaching
trust and practical supply issues,
emotional value
Lower costs for example providing remote P2P platforms
to their car.
Europeans want to see access and monitoring. Car sharing needs to
improvement in cost. be able to adjust to
Car sharing is currently We expect usage of level supply. Professional fleet
cost competitve for low 4 autonomous cars to rise owned (business owned)
mileage drivers only. after 2025. Level 4 cars drive expansion is capital
Increased government autonomously on restricted routes intensive and relatively
Better user experience regulation (taxation, city and can help the user experience slow and inflexible. Trust and reliability
4 out of 10 Europeans want to see improvement access and parking space by offering quick access. They Further development Car sharing will need to generate trust
in the car sharing user experience, which would limitations) can increase can also increase trust among of peer-to-peer (private among car owners to actually share.
involve a more reliable, faster, easy-to-use its competitiveness suppliers, making cars safer. owned) supply and pricing Platforms need to create transparency
service and increased supply of cars. versus car ownership. mechanisms is essential. through reliable 2-way rating systems.
ING Economics Department 3 Car sharing unlocked • October 2018
€100 2%
with a minimum of €50 per day.
Willingness to share high in Turkey, low in Benelux
We saw that a relatively high interest in using car sharing is South and East most willing to share for money
present in Southern and Eastern parts of Europe (page 7). Percentage of respondents willing to share a car for money by country
The same trend is visible when looking at the supply side.
People from Eastern and Southern parts of Europe are most 79%
willing to share their car. Less willing are people from the 66% 65%
Benelux countries. 60% 59% 59%
56% 53% 52%
49%
45% 44%
41%
TR IT SPA ROM FRA POL GER AUT UK CZ LUX BEL NL
Source: ING International Survey
ING Economics Department 16 Car sharing unlocked • October 2018Would you like to know more?
Senior Economist & Author With thanks to ING International Survey
Max Erich Andrew Berkhout Greenwheels The ING International survey took
+31 (0)6 83 63 57 85 Luuk van Halder Alphabet Nederland place in 13 countries with 1.000
Jarno van der Linden Amber Mobility adults over 18 in each country, apart
max.erich@ing.com
Edwin Nas Ministry of Infrastructure and from Luxembourg with 500. Ipsos
conducted this survey in March 2018.
Water Management NL
Sampling reflects gender ratios and
Editors Frans Tillema HAN Automotive Research
age distribution, selecting from pools
Ian Bright ING Group Research Olaf Gietelink TomTom of possible respondents furnished
Thijs Geijer ING Economics Department Willem Strijbosch TomTom by panel providers in each country.
Lex Hoekstra ING Economics Department European consumer figures are an
Ferdinand Nijboer ING Economics Department Jens Brokate ING average, weighted to take country
Maurice van Sante ING Economics Department Inga Fechner ING population into account.
Thorsten Mehltretter ING
Dirk Mulder ING
Samantha Reilly ING
Guy Walraven ING
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