Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
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Manitoba Labour Market
Occupational Forecasts
2016-2022
SUMMARY FINDINGS
The findings in this report are based on labour market supply
and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the
one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.
manitoba.ca/lmiManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE............................................................................................................................................................... 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................2
RÉSUMÉ................................................................................................................................................................4
CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2016 to 2022............6
1.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................6
1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand...............................................................................................................7
1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand.................................................................................................................7
1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation..............................................................................................................8
1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training.............................................................................. 14
1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector............................................................................... 15
1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply................................................................................................................. 18
1.3.1. Labour Force Outlook........................................................................................................................ 18
1.3.2 Labour Force Participation.................................................................................................................19
1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply................................................................................................................. 20
1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply.....................................................................................22
CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS.............................................................. 26
2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 26
2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies......................................................................... 26
2.2.1 International and National Outlook................................................................................................. 26
2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook..........................................................................................................27
2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba............................................................27
2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario
for Manitoba’s 2016 Custom Projection..........................................................................................28
2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status.............................................................. 29
2.3.1 National Labour Market.................................................................................................................... 29
2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market............................................................................................................... 29
2.4 Population........................................................................................................................................... 31
CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL.............................................................................................34
3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions......................................................................34Page ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
APPENDICES..................................................................................................................................................... 35
Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2015 to 2022..............................................36
Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational
Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand 2015 to 2022.......................................38
Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2016 to 2022.................................................... 44
Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2016 to 2022......50
CHART LIST
Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand – 2016 to 2022.......................................................................................7
Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source – 2016 to 2022..................................................................................8
Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,
Replacement and Expansion Demand – 2016 to 2022..................................................................10
Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level – 2016 to 2022................................................................... 14
Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected– 2015 to 2022................................................ 18
Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and Projected Labour Force Growth – 2015 to 2022...................................19
Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022................19
Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba – 2015 to 2022......................................................... 21
Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba – 2015 to 2022........................................ 21
Chart 10: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022................................................... 32
Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022.......................................... 33
Chart 12: Manitoba Age Distribution Change – 2015 to 2022....................................................................... 33Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page iii TABLE LIST Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to 2022.........................................11 Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to 2022........................................ 12 Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to 2022................................... 15 Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2016 to 2022.........................................................16 Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to 2022...........................................................22 Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to 2022............................................. 25 Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2015 to 2022..............................................................28 Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2011 to 2015................... 31
Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 1
Preface
The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-
Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise occupation migrants, over the next seven years.
and Trade, with guidance from the Minister’s Advisory
Council on Workforce Development (MACWD). We While the results of Manitoba’s custom projection
acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive
from other Manitoba government departments picture of the occupational labour markets across
consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions
played a role in validating results. should not be drawn on small samples, occupations
or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people
We would like specifically to acknowledge the will have less reliable information than those with
assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils more people. The projection results should be used
(AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba to observe general trends and relative comparisons,
Hydro and the following provincial government rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For
departments: Manitoba Education and Training and example, while some Manitoba occupations are
Manitoba Finance. forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than
others, estimates of precise numeric demand for
The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should
Report 2016 to 2022 identifies expected trends for be treated with caution.
the labour market. The report helps to improve our
understanding of the state of Manitoba’s labour Further, while the projection provides an average of
market and the key issues involved in achieving future the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to
labour market goals. It has been developed as a reflect granular, local level labour market realities or
tool to support workforce policy and programming. regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational
The information presented in this report provides a demand may differ across Manitoba regions and
scenario on the future demand of occupations across communities. Within occupations, there may be
industry sectors and describes the supply of workers unique conditions that are not captured in the
required to meet this demand. analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions
and conditions may change over time. Despite best
The labour market outlook estimates in this report are efforts, actual conditions may differ from those
based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise presented in this report.
and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting
(SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts
an occupation model that simulates the effect of Report and the results of Manitoba’s custom
changes in market conditions and enables clients projection are intended to complement existing work
to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour on occupation projection and forecasting, including
market supply and demand by occupation. In 2016, the Canadian Occupational Projection System
SECINC used this occupation model to create a (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for
custom projection of Manitoba’s labour force, with particular industries by sector councils, government
results for the seven years between 2016 and 2022 departments and other groups. While the approaches
provided in this report. and purposes of various projection models may
differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage
It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba’s these groups to understand the differences and build
occupation demand forecast and supply consistencies where feasible.
requirements, including new entrants, internationalPage 2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• The Manitoba economy will see a total of 167,700 • Job openings in business, finance and
job openings between 2016 and 2022, with 67 administration occupations are estimated at 26,300
per cent of these openings to replace worker or 15.7 per cent; and management occupations at
retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict 23,100 or 13.8 per cent.
approximately 24,000 total job openings per year.
• Within the sales and service occupation group, the
• Manitoba’s economy will see 165,500 new workers highest number of job openings is expected for the
join the labour force between 2016 and 2022, or following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons,
approximately 23,600 workers a year. and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and
related occupations.
• Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to
decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in • For all occupation groups, except health
2022. occupations, where expansion demand is greater,
replacement demand is more prominent than
• After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy expansion demand over the forecast period.
is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 per cent
annually from 2016 to 2022. • With regard to educational requirements, of
the 167,700 forecasted job openings over the
• Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift seven-year period, approximately 62 per cent
hourly labour income by an average of 2.3 per are forecasted to require some post-secondary
cent annually over the next seven years. Over the education and training (ex: college, university, trade
same period, this is expected to push up personal certification). The remaining 38 per cent may not
incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.7 per cent necessitate post-secondary training or education,
annually. but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job
training requirements.
Total Labour Demand
• A total of 167,700 job openings will be created
between 2016 and 2022.
• Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic
growth) is forecasted to create 55,000 job openings
(33 per cent of the total). Replacement demand
(job openings from retirements and deaths) is
forecasted to create 112,700 job openings (67 per
cent of the total).
• The occupation group with the most expected job
openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.9 per
cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook.Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 3
Total Labour Supply Gaps in Demand versus Supply
• It is forecasted that there will be an additional • Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to
165,500 workers over the forecast period to offset remain balanced over the projection period, with
the total labour demand. the overall supply for labour adequate to meet
labour demand. However, labour shortages or
• The additional supply is forecasted to consist of surpluses may exist for individual occupations and
93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and in some regions of the province.
34,000 net other in-mobility workers.
• In each year from 2016 to 2022, labour supply
• With 165,500 workers joining the labour force exceeds labour demand by an average of 3,300
and 112,700 people leaving due to retirements workers. While the gap is more significant between
and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is 2016 and 2018 with an average of 4,800, it closes to
projected to increase by 52,800 persons over the about 2,200 over the last four years of the forecast
forecast period. period, with supply estimated to outpace demand
by 2,000 workers in 2022.
• Over the forecast period, total labour demand
growth will outpace total labour supply growth by
2,200 workers. The unemployment rate is expected
to be highest in 2016 and then continue to decrease
over the forecast period as labour demand grows
slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward.
Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to
decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in
2022.Page 4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022
RÉSUMÉ
• L’économie manitobaine verra la création d’un • Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le
total de 167 700 possibilités d’emploi au cours de plus de créations d’emplois est celui de la vente
la période 2016-2022; 67 % de celles-ci viseront à et des services avec 33 300 possibilités d’emploi
pourvoir aux postes vacants en raison de départs à prévues, soit 19,9 % du total des perspectives
la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, il y aura d’emploi au Manitoba.
environ 24 000 possibilités d’emploi créées au total
par année. • En Affaires, finances et administration, on estime
que 26 300 emplois (15,7 %) seront créés, ainsi que
• L’économie manitobaine verra 165 510 nouveaux 23 100 (13,8 %) dans le secteur de la gestion.
travailleurs se joindre à la population active
pendant la période 2016-2022, soit environ 23 600 • Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et
travailleurs par année. des services, la plus grande création d’emploi
devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants :
• Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait diminuer, nettoyeurs, vendeurs de commerce de détail et
passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en 2022. serveurs et serveuses au comptoir, aides de cuisine
et personnel assimilé.
• Après le rajustement pour l’inflation, l’économie du
Manitoba devrait s’accroître environ de 1,8 % par • Pour la période envisagée, la demande de
année durant la période 2016-2022. remplacement est plus importante que la demande
d’expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels,
• Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu à l’exception de ceux du secteur de la santé où la
horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,3 % demande d’expansion prime.
par an en moyenne pendant les sept prochaines
années. Cela devrait faire augmenter les revenus • En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au
personnels au Manitoba de 3,7 % par an en niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept
moyenne durant la même période. années envisagée, parmi les 167 700 créations
d’emplois prévues, environ 62 % d’entre elles
Demande totale de main-d’œuvre devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de
formation et d’études postsecondaires (p. ex. un
• Au total, 167 700 possibilités d’emploi seront diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat
créées entre 2016 et 2022. professionnel). Les 38 % restants ne nécessiteront
peut-être pas d’études ou de formations
• Selon les prévisions, la demande d’expansion postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une
(nouveaux emplois découlant de la croissance formation spécifique à l’emploi ou une formation
économique) devrait créer 55 000 nouveaux en cours d’emploi.
emplois (33 % du total). La demande de
remplacement (emplois créés en raison de départs
à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer
112 700 emplois (67 % du total).Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022 Page 5
Offre totale de main-d’œuvre Écarts entre l’offre et la demande
• Il devrait y avoir 165 500 travailleurs additionnels au • Dans l’ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba
cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période
la demande totale de main-d’œuvre. envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d’œuvre
en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché
• L’offre supplémentaire de main-d’œuvre devrait du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie
se décomposer comme suit : 93 400 personnes ou un excédent de main-d’œuvre pour certaines
faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, 38 professions et dans certaines régions de la
100 personnes provenant de la migration nette et province.
34 000 personnes provenant de la mobilité de la
main-d’œuvre nette. • Chaque année, entre 2016 et 2022, l’offre de main-
d’œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande, à
• Étant donné que 165 500 nouveaux travailleurs raison de 3 300 travailleurs en moyenne. Bien que
se joindront à la population active et que 112 700 l’écart soit plus important entre 2016 et 2018, avec
postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs une différence de 4 800 travailleurs en moyenne,
à la retraite et de décès, la population active du il devrait redescendre à environ 2 200 travailleurs
Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance de 52 à la fin des quatre dernières années de la période
800 personnes pendant la période envisagée. envisagée, et l’offre devrait dépasser la demande de
2 000 travailleurs d’ici 2022.
• Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la
demande totale de main-d’œuvre devrait dépasser
la croissance de l’offre totale de main-d’œuvre
de 2 200 travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait
culminer en 2016, puis continuer à diminuer tout
au long de la période envisagée vu que la demande
de main-d’œuvre s’accroît légèrement plus vite
que l’offre de main-d’œuvre à partir de 2017. Dans
l’ensemble, le taux de chômage devrait baisser,
passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en 2022.Page 6 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook
Summary Findings, 2016 to 2022
1.1 Introduction
In this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba’s custom projection are reviewed and the overall
outlook for Manitoba’s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the
expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group.
Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill
demands is provided.
The model used to produce Manitoba’s the number of young people leaving the education
custom workforce outlook starts with the use of system required to meet future supply needs from
macroeconomic models of the province’s economy this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide
to create an outlook for Manitoba’s economic education and training to a sufficient number of
performance and estimates the number and sources individuals, there will be a shortage of workers.
of workers required considering the province’s
expected future economic and demographic An important difference in this approach from that
performance. It then explores possible sources for adopted by other models is that the occupational
these requirements and the number of workers projections contained in this report provide an
needed from those sources to meet these future estimated amount of immigration required to
requirements. meet labour market needs, rather than setting an
assumption for migration that is not directly linked
The possibility of labour shortages is identified to the expected future performance of the economy.
by examining the supply sources to determine if Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level
it is possible to achieve the required supply from adjusts over time to meet labour requirements.
these sources. For example, the model estimates
The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market
Occupational Forecasts report.
Glossary
Job openings = expected change in workforce demand Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the
over a specific time period labour force
Expansion demand = determined by changes in Net in-migration = people moving into or out of a
economic performance that lead to changes in geographic area to take or find a job
employment and the amount of excess workers Net other mobility = all other sources of labour force
required to meet normal turnover in the workforce change, including people changing occupations,
Replacement demand = job openings created workers re-entering the labour force and changes in
by people retiring from the labour force or dying, participation rates
influenced by the aging of the population Net in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other
New entrants = people between 15 and 30 years mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour
old joining the workforce for the first time after force
completing their educationManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 7
1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand
The outlook for labour demand in the economic economic growth and labour market activity, as well
model is determined by the expected growth of the as assumptions about trend growth in productivity
economy, along with the impact of changing market that impacts the need for workers.
conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour
relative to that for capital will have an effect on the Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow
demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise from 674,300 in 2016 to 724,900 in 2022 – an
wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to increase of 50,600 jobs, through economic growth.
substitute capital for workers. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 7.5
per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of
The model also considers the impact of migration on 1.1 per cent each year.
Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand
2016 to 2022
Thousands
730 724.9
720
710
700
690
674.3
680
670
660
650
640
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand
New jobs created as a result of economic growth are 2016 and 2022. In three of the seven years over the
referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand forecast period, replacement demand is expected
is expected to be strongest in 2018 and 2019, when it to be more than twice as high as the job openings
is forecasted to be 9,300 and 9,700 respectively. expected due to expansion demand.
In addition to the expansion demand of 55,000, Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are
people exiting the labour market on account of projected to result in a total of 167,700 job openings
retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will between 2016 and 2022.
result in an additional 112,700 job openings betweenPage 8 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source
2016 to 2022
Number
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand
1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation
The occupation group with the highest number of Analysis of job openings by more detailed three–digit
projected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes
or 19.9 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings show that within sales and service occupations,
outlook. This is followed by business, finance and the highest number of job openings will be for the
administration occupations at 26,300 or 15.7 per cent; following three occupation sub-groups:
and management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 per
cent. Together, these three occupation groups account • cleaners
for nearly 50 per cent of total projected job openings.
The occupation group with the fewest projected job • retail salespersons
openings is natural resources, agriculture and related
production occupations with only 2,400 projected job • food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and
openings over the forecast period. related occupationsManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 9
Similarly, within the business, finance and As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups
administration occupation group, the highest except health occupations, where expansion
number of job openings is expected for the following demand is greater, replacement demand is more
sub-groups: prominent than expansion demand over the forecast
period. Approximately 67 per cent of projected
• administrative and regulatory occupations new job openings are due to replacement demand
(retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment
• general office workers in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new
jobs that result from economic growth, will account
• office administrative assistants - for 33 per cent of the 167,700 total job openings over
general, legal and medical the forecast period.
Within management occupations, the highest Comparing occupational groups, occupations in
number of job openings will be for the following three natural resources, agriculture and related production
occupation sub-groups: occupations have the highest percentage of
replacement demand at 95.9 per cent, while health
• retail and wholesale trade managers occupations have the lowest at 43.6 per cent. Health
was the only group where expansion demand
• managers in agriculture, exceeded replacement demand over the forecast
horticulture and aquaculture period.
• legislators and senior management Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2016
and 2022 for the 10 major occupation groups based
Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2
codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of presents the same information by more detailed
data pertaining to smaller occupation groups. occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit
level).Page 10 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,
Replacement and Expansion Demand - 2016 to 2022
Sales and service occupations
Business, finance and
administration occupations
Management occupations
Trades, transport and equipment
operators and related occupations
Occupations in education, law and social,
community and government services
Health occupations
Natural and applied sciences
and related occupations
Occupations in manufacturing and utilities
Occupations in art, culture,
recreation and sport
Natural resources, agriculture and
related production occupations
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Number of Workers
Expansion Demand Replacement DemandManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 11
Table 1: Job openings by One-digit NOC and Source - 2016 to 2022
Total job Replacement
Expansion Replacement openings demand %
Natural resources, agriculture and 100 2,300 2,400 95.9%
related production occupations
Art, culture, recreation and sport 700 2,100 2,800 73.6%
Manufacturing and utilities 1,400 5,500 6,900 79.4%
Natural and applied sciences 3,000 5,300 8,300 63.9%
Health 11,700 9,000 20,700 43.6%
Education, law and social, community 9,600 11,300 20,900 54.0%
and government services
Trades, transport and equipment 5,300 17,600 22,900 77.0%
operators and related occupations
Management 3,400 19,700 23,100 85.2%
Sales and services 12,500 20,800 33,300 62.4%
Business, finance and administration 7,200 19,100 26,300 72.7%
Total 55,000 112,700 167,700 67.2%Page 12 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2016 to 2022
Expansion Replacement Total hiring
Demand demand demand
Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400
Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale 1,400 5,200 6,600
trade and customer services
Professional occupations in business and finance 800 3,000 3,800
Administrative and financial supervisors 2,600 7,100 9,700
and administrative occupations
Finance, insurance and related business 200 1,300 1,500
administrative occupations
Office support occupations 2,900 5,300 8,200
Distribution, tracking and scheduling 800 2,300 3,100
co-ordination occupations
Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 1,500 2,200 3,700
Technical occupations related to 1,500 3,100 4,600
natural and applied sciences
Professional occupations in nursing 4,100 3,500 7,600
Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 2,000 1,300 3,300
Technical occupations in health 2,200 1,800 4,000
Assisting occupations in support of health services 3,300 2,400 5,700
Professional occupations in education services 2,300 3,300 5,600
Professional occupations in law and social, 1,500 2,700 4,200
community and government services
Paraprofessional occupations in legal, 2,700 2,200 4,900
social, community and education services
Occupations in front-line public protection services 400 500 900
Care providers and educational, legal 2,700 2,600 5,300
and public protection support occupations
Professional occupations in art and culture 300 700 1,000
Continued on next page.Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 13
Expansion Replacement Total hiring
Demand demand demand
Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 400 1,400 1,800
Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 500 1,800 2,300
Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 2,100 2,700 4,800
Sales representatives and salespersons - 1,600 3,600 5,200
wholesale and retail trade
Service representatives and other customer and 2,700 5,000 7,700
personal services occupations
Sales support occupations 1,600 2,000 3,600
Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,100 5,700 9,800
Industrial, electrical and construction trades 2,500 6,500 9,000
Maintenance and equipment operation trades 900 4,300 5,200
Other installers, repairers and servicers and material 500 1,100 1,600
handlers
Transport and heavy equipment operation and related 600 4,400 5,000
maintenance occupations
Trades helpers, construction labourers and related 800 1,300 2,100
occupations
Supervisors and technical occupations in 200 600 800
natural resources, agriculture and related production
Workers in natural resources, -400 1,000 600
agriculture and related production
Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 300 700 1,000
Processing, manufacturing and utilities 400 1,300 1,700
supervisors and central control operators
Processing and manufacturing machine 400 1,800 2,200
operators and related production workers
Assemblers in manufacturing 200 1,500 1,700
Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 400 1000 1,400
*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classifiedPage 14 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training
It is projected that of the 167,700 forecasted job training or education, but may have occupation-
openings, approximately 103,500 positions (62 per specific or on-the-job training requirements. The
cent) will require some post-secondary education and majority of these job openings are intermediate,
training (ex: college, trade certification, university). clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which
usually require secondary school and/or occupation-
These positions are managerial and professional specific training. Elemental and labour occupations
occupations, classified as NOC 2011 skill level 0/A, (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job
or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill training, are a smaller portion.
level B.
Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between
The remaining 38 per cent of projected job openings, NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for
or 64,200 positions, may not require post-secondary 2016 to 2022.
Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level
2016 to 2022
17,900,
11%
52,300,
46,300, 31%
28%
51,200,
31%
NOC O/A - Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education
NOC B - Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training
NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School
and/or Occupation Specific Training
NOC D - Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job TrainingManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 15
Replacement demand is projected to be similar for skill level 0/A, B and C, while expansion demand varies.
Occupations in skill level D are projected to have lower replacement and expansion demand.
The largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 20,400 and
20,200 respectively (refer to Table 3), while the share of expansion demand-driven jobs is highest for unskilled
occupations, at 40.5 per cent.
Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to 2022
Expansion Replacement Total job Replacement
NOC Skill Levels demand demand openings demand %
NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional 16,000 36,300 52,300 69.5%
NOC B - Technical and Skilled 16,600 34,600 51,200 67.6%
NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical 15,200 31,100 46,300 67.2%
and operator
NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,200 10,700 17,900 59.5%
Total 55,000 112,700 167,700 67.2%
1.2.4 High-demand occupations by Industry Sector
Manitoba’s occupational forecasting model estimates instead be used to observe general trends and relative
the number and sources of workers required comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical
to address the expected future economic and forecasts.
demographic performance of the province through
the application of macroeconomic models. The While these projections provide an average of the
projected demand for workers is also impacted by overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to
changing market conditions, for example the cost of reflect granular, local level labour market realities or
labour relative to that for capital. regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational
demand may differ across Manitoba regions and
Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector communities.
with the highest number of expected job openings
created over the forecast period through both changes Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific
in economic performance (expansion demand) and occupations that are not captured in the analysis,
through normal turnover in the workforce through and economic and demographic assumptions and
retirements and deaths (replacement demand). conditions may change over time.
Readers are cautioned against drawing precise Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC
conclusions based on individual occupations or codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the
industry groups. The projection results should data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.Page 16 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2016-2022
Number of
Sector Occupation Job Openings
2016-2022
Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,200
Managers in agriculture 3,500
Management Restaurant and food service managers 1,100
Construction managers 900
Manufacturing managers 900
Administrative assistants 3,300
General office support workers 3,000
Business,
Finance and Administrative officers 2,900
Administration
Accounting and related clerks 1,700
Financial auditors and accountants 1,500
Information systems analysts and consultants 800
Natural
and applied Civil engineers 500
sciences Computer programmers and interactive media developers 500
and related Computer network technicians 500
occupations
Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 400
Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 7,500
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,900
Health
Licensed practical nurses 1,100
occupations
Specialist physicians 800
Pharmacists 600
Occupations Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,100
in education, Early childhood educators and assistants 2,400
law and social,
Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,400
community and
government Social and community service workers 2,100
services Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 1,900
Continued on next page.Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 17
Number of
Sector Occupation Job Openings
2016-2022
Graphic designers and illustrators 400
Occupations Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400
in art, culture,
Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 200
recreation and
sport Musicians and singers 200
Interior designers and interior decorators 200
Retail salespersons 4,200
Light duty cleaners 3,200
Sales and
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support
service 2,800
occupations
occupations
Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,600
Cooks 2,100
Carpenters 2,500
Trades,
transport and Transport truck drivers 2,200
equipment Construction trades helpers and labourers 1,700
operators Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and
and related 1,200
mechanical repairers
occupations
Material handlers 1,100
Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 1,000
Natural General farm workers 500
resources,
Underground production and development miners 300
agriculture
and related Supervisors, mining and quarrying 200
occupations Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance
100
and horticulture servicesPage 18 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply
1.3.1 Labour Force Outlook
The occupational forecasting model uses population Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour force is
estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of expected to grow by 52,800 people (7.8 per cent) to
Statistics combined with projected age-specific labour 726,900 people by 2022. This represents an average
force participation rates produced by SECINC to annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent, or an average of
project Manitoba’s labour force. The model estimates 7,500 persons per year.
Manitoba’s labour force at 674,100 people in 2015.
Within the projection period, Manitoba’s labour
Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rate in 2016
force over the past 10 years and is projected to (0.8 per cent), before increasing and stabilizing
see continued growth throughout the seven-year between 1.0 and 1.2 per cent over the remainder of
projection period. the forecast period. This slowed growth compared to
previous years reflects an increase in the proportion of
population in older age groups with lower labour force
participation rates.
Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force,
Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022
Thousands
740
726.7
730
720
710
700
690
674.1
680
670
660
650
640
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 19
Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and
Projected Labour Force Growth - 2015 to 2022
Per cent
2.5
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1.3.2 Labour Force Participation
Manitoba’s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.2 percentage points between 2016
and 2022, to 67.8 per cent.
This slight decline reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than
half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing
proportion of elders in the labour force population.
Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate,
Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022
Per cent
68.4
68.3
68.3
68.2
68.1
68.0
67.9
67.8
67.8
67.7
67.6
67.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Page 20 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply
Net other mobility includes all other sources of
Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour market change in the labour force, such as people changing
supply outlook estimates that approximately 93,400 occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (ex:
new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net after an illness) and changes in participation rates
other mobility workers (for a total 165,500 workers) caused by increased wage rates or social factors (ex:
will be required to replace people leaving the labour increased desire for people to enter the labour force).
force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs
created as a result of economic growth. With 165,500 New entrants remain a consistent and significant
workers joining the labour force and 112,700 people component of the estimated supply over the forecast
leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour period, averaging about 13,300 per year. The labour
force in Manitoba will increase by 52,800 persons. force is projected to lose approximately 16,100
workers per year because of retirements and deaths.
The components of the projected change in As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over
Manitoba’s labour force are: the period is projected to be required to meet job
opening requirements.
• new entrants (persons entering the labour force for
the first time), which add to the labour force Chart 8 shows a decrease in net other mobility
between 2015 and 2016. This decrease can be
• deaths and retirements, which subtract from the explained by a previous drop in participation rate
labour force between 2013 and 2014, resulting in a decrease in
the number of persons in the labour force by almost
• net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other 5,000. In 2015, the participation rate increases back
mobility), which can add or subtract from the to previous levels by bringing workers back into the
labour force labour force through a significant increase in net other
mobility. Chart 9 illustrates this relationship between
Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out labour force participation rates and unemployment
of a geographic area to take or find a job. rates.Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 21
Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change
2015 to 2022
Number of Workers
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Other In-Mobility Net In-Migration New Entrants Retirements & Deaths Labour Force Change
Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate
Per cent 2015 to 2022 Per cent
68.4 6.0
68.2 5.8
68.0 5.6
67.8 5.4
67.6 5.2
67.4 5.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)Page 22 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply
Overall, the labour market is expected to remain labour and labour demand averages 3,450 workers per
generally balanced over the projection period, year. Over the last four years of the forecast period,
meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet the gap will close significantly, from an average of
labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist 4,675 between 2015 and 2018 to 2,225 for the last four
for certain occupations and in local labour markets. years.
Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and For each year of the forecast period, the gap between
labour supply for each year between 2015 and 2022. labour demand and supply as a percentage of the
total labour force is small (ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 per
In all seven years of the projection period, labour cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to
supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than remain balanced.
labour demand. This gap between the supply of
Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to 2022
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Labour Force demand 669,900 674,300 682,100 691,300 701,000 709,300 717,600 724,900
Labour Force Supply 674,100 679,700 687,100 695,400 703,800 711,700 719,400 726,900
demand imbalance -4,200 -5,400 -5,000 -4,100 -2,800 -2,300 -1,800 -2,000
Labour shortages by occupation groups The labour supply forecasting model is based on the
assumption that the labour force for an occupation in
Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for the long run will be determined by the demand for the
each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand
NOC level). When considered as a percentage of the in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility
total labour force, the gaps between labour demand and increased labour force participation rate (net
and supply in each year range from 0.0 per cent to 0.2 other mobility).
per cent for each of the groups.
Between 2016 and 2022, net other mobility is
For almost all occupation groups, supply exceeds forecasted to add 34,000 persons to Manitoba’s
demand in all years of the projection period. Only labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts
Health occupations are expected to see demand levels that the increased demand for labour over the next
slightly higher than the forecasted supply over the last few years will be partly met with an increase in
two years of the forecast. the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour
force (higher labour force participation rates) and
It should be noted that this does not mean that Manitobans moving to occupations in higher
shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual demand.
occupations within the broad occupation groups.
If these assumptions are not met, more labour
shortages could be expected.Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 23
Occupations with significant and the occupation’s labour force in the previous
labour market tightness year. Occupations where supply requirements are
largely met through migration may be at risk if
Methodology these requirements are not accommodated through
The occupational model used to create Manitoba’s additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not
labour market occupational forecasts estimates the wish or are not available to move to the province.
supply requirements needed to meet the demand
for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no The third measure is the difference between an
significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupation’s actual and normal unemployment
occupations in these projections and analysts should rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with
examine the estimated requirements to see if it is negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter
possible to achieve them. labour markets and vice-versa.
To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour There are three ranks numbered from one-to-three for
market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to each measure:
provide an indication of the “relative” risk or difficulty
across occupations of obtaining their estimated • Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than
supply requirements. sufficient workers available to meet demand.
Demand pressure is lower than normal, there is
This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs,
originates from the fact that the supply requirements and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher
estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to
reality. find workers;
This ranking is not intended to indicate that an • Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation
occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not where organizations can rely on their traditional
obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there methods for obtaining workers. Demand pressure
is a higher risk relative to other occupations. is normal, organizations may have to rely on
migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not
Four ranking measures are used to determine the different from what they have faced in the past, and
supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, the unemployment rate gap is small; and
one on the demand supply balance and the other is a
combined rank that is a weighted average of the other • Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand
ranks. pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than
normal must be placed on organizations to access
The demand measure focuses on “demand pressure” migrants to meet their worker requirements and
as measured by the number of job openings for an the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It
occupation divided by the size of the occupation’s will be relatively more difficult to find workers.
labour force in the previous year, which is similar to
the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the It should be noted that it is important to consider the
demand growth for an occupation is high relative to size of the occupations when using the supply risk
that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank results, as occupations with small sizes can produce
as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the ranks that may be misleading.
workers needed.
For example, an occupation with a labour force of only
The supply measure focuses on migration and is 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows
measured as the ratio of required net in-migration a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressurePage 24 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022
measure. This would certainly put it near the top gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only
of occupations for supply risk through the demand occupations with at least 150 individuals employed
pressure rank. in 2015 have been considered for the analysis. These
occupations are likely to display a higher degree of
The data provided in this report is accordingly demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling
restricted to occupations where the employment is job openings over the forecast period compared to
150. other occupations.
Results In terms of industry sectors, health occupations
Labour market tightness may exist temporarily in display the highest degree of relative labour market
an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for tightness over the forecast period, with 52.8 per cent
example because of anticipated major projects, and of occupations showing high demand pressures in
may disappear after completion. In some occupations at least one year, followed by natural and applied
however, labour market tightness may persist over sciences and related occupations (43.5 per cent)
a longer period of time, potentially due to rising and trades, transport and equipment operators and
numbers of retirements and deaths as the population related occupations with 20.0 per cent.
ages. In order to identify occupations where more
research may be required to address potential long- Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness
term supply risks, occupations with a weighted rankings for each of the seven years of the forecast
average combined rank of three are highlighted in period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution
Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average around interpretation of the data.
of the supply, demand and unemployment rateManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 Page 25
Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to 2022
Occupational group Occupation
Court officers and justices of the peace
Business, finance
Health information management occupations
and administration
Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations
Natural and Geological and mineral technologists and technicians
applied sciences Construction estimators
Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
Allied primary health practitioners
Medical laboratory technologists
Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary
technologists
Health
Medical radiation technologists
Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists,
n.e.c.
Licensed practical nurses
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates
Education, law and
social, community and Journalists
government services
Travel counsellors
Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and
Sales and service related clerks
Casino occupations
Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations
Telecommunications line and cable workers
Telecommunications installation and repair workers
Trades Carpenters
Railway carmen/women
Railway and yard locomotive engineers
Manufacturing Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations
and Utilities Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers
*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classifiedYou can also read
