Maghreb-Spain Relations: a View From the Maghreb - IEMed
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Maghreb-Spain Relations
Maghreb-Spain Relations:
a View From the Maghreb
Driss Guerraoui • a fiscal accord reached in 1986 to prevent dual
Université Mohammed V, taxation, an accord on economic and financial
Rabat cooperation in 1988, an accord on internation-
al land transport of goods in 1988 and a recip-
rocal accord on promoting and protecting in-
Relations Between Spain and the Maghreb: vestment in 1989
an Emerging Joint Awareness with a View • a friendship treaty on good neighbourly re-
to Developing a Partnership that Today lations and cooperation was signed in June
is Undervalued 1991
• an important joint declaration issued by the
An objective observation of the state of the econom- high-level meeting was approved on 6th Febru-
ic, political and cultural relations between the ary 1996
Maghreb and Spain reveals that the partnership be- • a mixed committee, charged with promoting
tween Spain and the Maghrebi countries as a group and developing greater knowledge and under-
masks the potential of major cooperation – a poten- standing between the peoples of Morocco and
tial that remains either undervalued or as yet unex- Spain, and called the Averroës Committee, was
plored. This under-exploitation of the possibilities of set up on 6th March 1997
the Spanish-Maghrebi partnership is paradoxical,
given that they are close neighbours and are bound Other similar initiatives have been set in motion with
together by the ties of history, shared geo-strategic Morocco and other countries of the Maghreb since
and economic interests and an unavoidable common this date, but it is clear that neither the current level
destiny within the framework of the Euro-Mediter- and nature of commercial relations nor the volume
ranean space that is currently under construction. of movement of people, capital and technology have
Ever since the mid-1980s, there has undoubtedly reached the standard that a real partnership be-
been an increased awareness of this, and from the tween the Maghreb and Spain ought to be capable
early 90s onward this awareness has been further of reaching. It is on these and other levels that the
encouraged by the pressures created by the clan- major strategic stakes of the relations between
destine migration from the Maghreb to Spain, the Spain and the Maghreb are to be found.
rise of Islam in the region, the events of 11th Sep-
tember in the United States, and the economic war
being waged by the transnational networks of in- The Major Stakes of the Relations Between
dustry, telecommunications, finance and various Spain and the Maghreb
services. This economic war prompts strategic al-
liances in accordance with a worldwide logic of lo- Three strategic stakes warrant particular attention in
calisation, in which the Maghreb is an essential any analysis of the relations between the Maghreb
staging post on the way to conquering the African and Spain: their differing dynamics in both demog-
market. raphy and development; the management, not yet
It is for these reasons, and by way of an example, that fully mastered, of migration; and economic co-oper-
several accords have been reached with Morocco: ation that is at a point below the existing potential.Differing demographic dynamic lion inhabitants, more than double Spain’s estimated
figure of 41 million. This evolution in population lev-
An analysis of the data concerning the respective els on the two shores of the Mediterranean will un-
population levels and resources in the Maghreb and deniably have repercussions on the structure of the
Spain reveals the existence and development of dif- population according to age group, notably on the
fering demographic dynamics that are highly preju- potentially active population, and on the differing
dicial to the equilibrium and stability of the southern changes in the populations’ needs within the
Mediterranean region as a whole. These different spheres of employment, basic infrastructure, essen-
dynamics are visible in the form of a decreasing birth tial social services, and the pressures on natural and
rate and increasing prosperity in Spain, and of a ver- financial resources required for lasting and sus-
itable population explosion against a background of tained human development, the current level of
growing social fracture in the Maghreb. which is either stagnant, as is the case in certain
The population of countries such as Algeria, Libya, countries of the Maghreb, or in regression, as seen
Keys
Morocco, Mauritania and Tunisia was adjudged in in other instances, and which is in either case sub-
2001 to stand at 78 million, which is 27% of the en- ject to constant swings, denoting a real instability –
tire population of the Arab world. The annual rate of both structural and related to the particular circum-
increase between 1975 and 2001 is estimated to stances of the moment – in growth and develop-
be at 2.3%. Morocco and Algeria account for 77% ment in the countries of the Maghreb.
Med. 2003
of the total population of the Maghreb, a proportion If we look at age groups, the proportion of children
that has been almost constant since 1975 and is aged under 15 in Tunisia, which seems to have be-
likely to remain so until 2015. gun its demographic transition, did not exceed 29%
The countries of the Maghreb are divided into two in 2001. This proportion is estimated to fall to 22% in
groups with regard to changes in population. There 2015. Algeria, Libya and Morocco have very similar
are those that have recorded relatively rapid demo- structures in terms of age group and total fertility
graphic transition, principally Tunisia, Algeria, Libya rates. In contrast, Mauritania, which had a total fer-
50-51
and Morocco, whose average annual rise has tility rate of 43.2% in 2001 and has a forecast rate
dropped notably over the last 20 years to below 2%. of 41.7% in 2015, is marked by a very slow demo-
Mauritania alone has demographic growth rates of graphic transition and so runs the risk of aggravated
over 2%. As for Spain, a forward looking examina- social pressure with regard to meeting the essential
tion of the demographic changes that will have tak- needs of the population.
en place in 2015 shows weak population growth In Spain, the structure of the population by age
amounting to only 0.1% in the period 2001-2015, group is characterised in comparison with Maghrebi
as opposed to 0.5% between 1975 and 2001. countries by the considerable proportion of people
These differing dynamics will have an impact on the aged over 65, who in 2001 accounted for 16.9% of
demographic and economic weight of the Maghreb the population, as opposed to 5.8% in Tunisia, 4.3%
and Spain that will be seen around 2015. The in Morocco and 3.4% in Mauritania. The ageing of
Maghreb had a population 20% larger than that of the Spanish population will continue: it is forecast
Spain in 1975, and this is a trend that will become that by 2015, 19.2% of the population will consist
even more pronounced as we approach the year of people aged over 65, compared with 6.7% in
2015, when the countries of the Maghreb will be- Tunisia, 5.1% in Morocco, 5.5% in Libya, 4.9% in Al-
tween them have an estimated population of 97 mil- geria and 3.5% in Mauritania.
TABLE 3 Evolution of human development index in the countries of the Maghreb
Country 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003
Algeria 109 107 100 106 107
Tunisia 102 101 89 97 91
Libya 65 72 59 64 61
Morocco 126 124 112 123 126
Mauritania 149 147 139 152 154
Source: Human Development Report 2003, UNDP.This differing demographic profile on the two shores Undervalued economic cooperation
of the Mediterranean will also have an impact on the
employment market and particularly on the potential An analysis of the states of the economic, trade and
active population, which will develop a declining financial relations between Spain and the Maghreb
tendency in Spain, and drop from 68.9% to 67.6%, shows that the capacity for cooperation is under-ex-
whereas it will continue to grow in the Maghreb, and ploited and the existing potential is not fully valued.
reach 70.7% of the population in Tunisia (compared There are two key indicators that provide ample
with 64.8% in 2001), 67.7% in Algeria (61.5% in proof of this: a level and structure of trade that can
2001), 67% in Morocco (63.4% in 2001), 65.8% be described as pre-industrialised and polarised,
in Libya (64.3% in 2001) and 54.8% in Mauritania and little interest or solidarity as far as direct invest-
(53.4% in 2001). ment is concerned.
The corollary of this situation is the increase in mi- Thus, the value of exports from Spain to the
gration from the Maghreb to Spain. Maghreb (excluding Morocco) reached a value of
€1.4 billion in 2002, over half of which went to Al-
The management of migration, as yet unmastered geria, as the following figures show:
Migration is one of the most important demograph- Exports from Spain to the Maghreb
TABLE 4
(excluding Morocco) (%)
ic, economic and social, even ‘civilisational’, phe-
Algeria 53.1
nomena in these years, the opening years of the new
Tunisia 36.7
millennium. And as migration intensifies and accel-
Libya 6.9
erates in the direction of the rich northern countries,
Mauritania 3.3
it is Europe that has today become the most affect-
ed area.
Spain is the third host country to Maghrebi workers Regarding the value of exports from Maghreb coun-
after France and Italy. Together with the Maghreb tries to Spain (not including Morocco) it might be
countries, Spain is the focal point and the preferred said that it has reached a value of 4.9 billion in 2002,
staging post en route to Europe for aspiring mi- over half of wich also correspond to Algeria.
grants of Sub-Saharan and Asian origin.
This phenomenon is not solely the result of the glar- Exports from Maghreb (excluding Morocco)
TABLE 5
to the Spain
ing disparities that characterise the level of develop-
Algeria 59.4
ment on the two shores of the Mediterranean, nor of
Tunisia 7.3
the unbalanced and unequal nature of the relations
Libya 31.8
between Europe and the Maghreb, but it corre-
Mauritania 1.5
sponds with and is a response to an effective need
in Europe for foreign labour.
Consequently, if Europe in general and Spain in par- Turning our attention to Morocco, imports from
ticular wish to guard against all forms of migration, Spain represented 11.6% of the total imports into
which when all is said and done is never completely Morocco in 2002, and it is estimated that their share
avoidable regardless of the protection measures of exports amounted to 15.7% in the same year.
that are put in place, they need to target and organ- Nevertheless, the trade balance remains against
ise the inflows of migration that in the years to come Morocco as the rate of coverage of imports by ex-
they are going to experience as a necessity. More- ports reached 89.2% in 2002.
over, such targeted organisation would have to be In comparison with the other countries of the
co-ordinated and agreed with the governments of Maghreb, Morocco can be considered Spain’s lead-
the countries of the Maghreb. The 5+5 group meet- ing partner with regard to imports, whereas Algeria
ing held in Morocco on 22nd and 23rd October and Libya easily surpass Morocco in terms of ex-
2003, attended by Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya ports to Spain. This situation in the trade between
and Mauritania, and by Spain, France, Italy, Portu- Spain and the countries of the Maghreb indicates a
gal and Malta, may constitute a possible way to find polarisation in Spain’s trade relations that is
a common strategy to successfully manage the favourable to Algeria and Libya and works against
shifts of population within the region as a whole. Morocco, Tunisia and Mauritania.Furthermore, the structure of the trade between the however, there are four sectors that have interested
two areas indicates the permanence of a primary Spanish investors. In descending order, they are
specialisation in low added-value products, mining, telecommunications, industry, commerce and fish-
oil and gas products in Algeria, Libya and Maurita- ing. In 2001, there was a particular interest in
nia, and in agricultural produce, fish and seafood, tourism and in 2002 in the real estate sector.
textiles and clothing, as well as certain electrical When put together, these circumstances influence
goods, chemical and parachemical products, in Mo- the state of relations between the Maghreb and
rocco and Tunisia. Spain, and encourage us to reconsider the future of
With regard to investment, the Maghrebi access to these relations in new terms.
Spanish capital remains below the region’s require-
ment levels for sustaining growth and development
in the context of economies that are experiencing in- The Prospects for the Future as Seen
creasing pressure on their available resources. The from the Maghreb
Keys
economic and financial accords signed within this
sphere are principally intended to aid Spanish com- The future of the relations between the Maghreb and
panies that wish to establish themselves in the vari- Spain is dependent on two fundamental geopolitical
ous countries of the Maghreb. Any such accords that conditions: a new shared geo-strategic vision and a
in fact concern the implementation of ventures of new political culture that is more alert to the major
Med. 2003
mutual interest also serve to uphold the purchase problems facing the Arab world and Africa.
of Spanish equipment, thereby contributing to the
rise in Spanish exports to the Maghrebi countries. A new shared geo-strategic vision
This approach to economic and financial co-opera-
tion has had a knock-on effect in terms of the set- The partnership between Spain and the Maghreb
ting up of Spanish companies, but has been unable needs a new shared geo-strategic vision, which
to stimulate an equivalent rate of growth at the level should be founded on putting the future role that this
52-53
of direct Spanish investment in the Maghreb. centre of attraction can and ought to play into per-
Thus, by way of an illustration, while the number of spective, within the framework not just of the Euro-
Spanish companies established in Morocco contin- Mediterranean free-trade zone planned for 2010,
ues to grow, the volume of direct investment has but also in the context of the vast Euro-African re-
risen and fallen in response to changes in the politi- gion that is to be constructed.
cal situation and in microeconomic rationales that This background of Africa, which seems already to
are difficult to control, which explains why the vol- have been taken into account by leading Spanish
ume is variable over the years and according to sec- transnational corporations (Fagor, El Corte Inglés,
tor. For example, the amount of foreign, and direct, Roca and Telefónica) ought to figure in the new,
investment to Morocco as a percentage of all invest- common thinking on geo-strategy, and suggests a
ment has dropped from 11.2% in 1999 to 3% in change in political culture in the major decision-
2001. There was a slight recovery in the opening making centres both in Spain and in the Maghreb.
months of 2003, as these investments amounted to
9% of all investment made in Morocco between Jan- A change in political culture
uary and June 2003.
According to sector, investments vary from one year The geo-strategic stakes of both the Maghreb and
to the next. In 1998, for example, Spanish investors Spain need a real change in political culture at the
were particularly interested in the industrial sector, level of the civil societies and states of the region.
as demonstrated by the fact that industry attracted There are a number of preconditions that would
68% of all Spanish investment in Morocco during seem to be essential in order for this to be inaugu-
the course of the year. In 1999, it was telecommuni- rated. Firstly, there is a need for the conviction that
cations that drew the most Spanish capital: 1,807.6 only a joint management of common interests will
million Moroccan dirhams or 87% of the total invest- enable all the players involved in political and eco-
ment made. Telecommunications remained the top nomic life in the Maghreb and Spain to move to-
ranking sector in the distribution of Spanish invest- wards an improved capacity to deal with the chal-
ment in Morocco between 2000 and 2002. Overall, lenges they face.This perspective in turn presupposes a strategy to This in turn presupposes a productive approach to enhance the value of the comparative advantages of debt that demonstrates solidarity with others, a more all the constituent elements in the region. At this lev- specifically determined access to Spanish capital el, the geo-strategic position of Spain and the coun- and a cultural policy that is alert to the essential tries of the Maghreb, in combination with their inher- problems facing the region while it allows for the ent competitive advantages (proximity to European, communication between peoples that is essential African, Arab and American markets, factor costs for laying the human foundations of a lasting part- and the importance of the economic potential) ought nership. to serve as a basis for establishing major economic and financial groups around ventures of mutual in- terest and regional scope. Bibliography The implementation of such a strategy would reside in the fact that it is the only strategy capable of en- AZOULAY, A.: «Morocco and Spain in the Euro- abling relations between the Maghreb and Spain to Mediterranean Space: the challenges of a Part- go hand in hand with the restructuring now taking nership still in process of evolution», Tribuna place within their economies, and this in an interna- Mediterrània, n.3, 2003. tional and European environment marked by rele- Euro-Mediterranean Statistics, European Commis- vant qualitative changes (the concentration of fi- sion, Brussels, 2001. nance, the ascendancy of major non-European Eurostat Yearbook, European Commission, Brus- transnational corporations in the world market, relo- sels, 2003. cations, pressure from migration, and so forth.). GUERRAOUI, D.: Les grands défis économiques de A joint development of this nature could lead the la Méditerranée, EDM, 2001. way to conditions that would improve the position of GUERRAOUI, D.: Régionalisation et développement Spain and the Maghreb joint group, not just regard- des provinces du Nord, quels enjeux pour le ing the free-trade zone planned for 2010 but also partenariat marocco-espagnol, Université Mo- within the world market. The major infrastructure hammed V, 1998. projects (motorways, ports, airports, telecommuni- GUERRAOUI, D.: Association et équilibres terri- cations, public buildings and works, energy and var- toriaux : quelles relations entre l’Europe et le ious financial services) are potential spheres suit- Maghreb?, Meeting of Economists, Col·legi d’E- able for this collective management of the conomistes de Catalunya, Barcelona, November comparative advantages in the region. 2001. Politically, this perspective implies a determined Human Development Report, UNDP, 2003. transformation of the disagreements, which have Le partenariat euro-méditerranéen et les activités characterised relations between the various coun- régionales MEDA, The European Union’s Dele- tries of the Maghreb and Spain, into areas of con- gation to the Kingdom of Morocco, European vergence: in the first place, Spain’s positive involve- Commission, May 2003. ment in the conflicts between Algeria and Morocco «Problèmes économiques», special issue of Écono- over the Moroccan provinces in the Sahara; a coor- mie internationale: bilan 2002, La Documenta- dinated, agreed management of migration; and a tion Française, Paris, October 2003. mutually beneficial management in the form of a true Statistiques de l’Office des Changes, Ministère des partnership in agriculture and fishing. Finances et de la Privatisation, Rabat, 2003.
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