LONG-HAUL TRAVEL BAROMETER 1/2021 TRAVEL HORIZON: JANUARY-APRIL
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©Patrick Hendry LONG-HAUL TRAVEL BAROMETER 1/2021 TRAVEL HORIZON: JANUARY-APRIL
METHODOLOGY
• Focus - Potential travellers from Brazil, China, Japan, Russia and the US.
• Method – 1 000 online interviews with national representatives (18-70 years old), per market, per wave.
• Frequency: Interviews are conducted 3 times per year and provide insights about the travel horizons:
January-April; May-August and September-December.
TRAVEL THEMES EXAMINED:
• People’s intention to travel outside their region of residence*
• Concerns & barriers to travel
LONG-HAUL TRAVEL • Important criteria for the selection of destinations
• Travel preferences regarding travel destination, experiences and mode of transportation
BAROMETER * In all markets, the survey monitors respondents’ intention to travel outside the region of residence (e.g.
North America for the USA). The only exception is the Russian Federation, where intention to travel outside
the Commonwealth of Independent States is measured.
Detailed results are only av ailable to the members of partner organisations.
The survey is meant to gauge travellers’ attitudes and intentions, and is not meant to quantify demand levels.
For more information on the index calculation please consult the methodology.
The project is realised with the support of
TCI Research.HOW TO READ THE RESULTS?
Intention to travel is measured in an index that reflects the dominant sentiment expressed by a
market, either a positive or negative one. The index is tied to a base of 100. Values above 100
indicate a positive evolution, whereas values below 100 indicate negative attitudes towards travel
in a given time period
The Long-Haul Travel Barometers capture people’s intention to travel abroad and are not meant
to quantify prospect demand levels.
Long-Haul Travel Sentiment Index (base 100, 2015)
LONG-HAUL TRAVEL 110
Above 100 =
BAROMETER 105 Positive evolution
#1/2021 100
95
Under 100 =
Negative evolution
90
• Insights in the following slides refer to the travel horizon: January-April 2021
• The field work was conducted between 3-20 December 2020INTENTIONS FOR LONG-DISTANCE TRAVEL FAINTLY IMPROVE IN SOME OVERSEAS MARKETS
WHILE THE SENTIMENT TOWARDS EUROPE REMAINS NEGATIVE
• Along with the expected positive effect of the COVID-19 vaccines worldwide, the long-haul travel sentiment index for January - April 2021 seems to improve in some large travel markets timidly.
Though the index scores can be interpreted as some sign of revitalisation in the desire for travelling far from home, people remain largely concerned about personal health or feel restricted about
planning trips. In Europe, the entry bans are still in place, and travellers’ confidence about visiting the region remains negative with sentiment index scores for Europe below or around 100 (103
for China).
• Across the analysed markets, the Chinese show the strongest interest to hit the road again, with 68% of respondent wishing to take at least one trip outside Eastern Asia* between January-April
2021. This is an encouraging sign for the European tourism sector to relaunch or strengthen close cooperation with Chinese partners to ensure speedy recovery of travel as soon as the health
situation allows and also to keep Europe on top of mind of Chinese travellers.
• Compared to previous waves, the sentiment index for long-haul travel also improves in Brazil (120) and US (127), while in Russia, the index values decrease but remain positive at 118 index
points. Results, however, should be interpreted with caution as beyond the COVID-19 related barriers, the gloomy economic and political situation in these countries could make it hard for
consumers to materialise their travel plans. Japan remains the least confident market with only 13% of respondentsconsidering a long-haul trip in the first four monthsof 2021.
Evolution of intention to travel long-haul and to Europe
Index Base:100 (>100=expansion,RESPONDENTS WHO
DO NOT INTEND SAMPLE SIZES PER MARKET:
Brazil: 384
TO TRAVEL OVERSEAS China: 322
Japan: 873
between January-April 2021 Russia: 607
US: 590
Total sample: 2776TRAVEL PLANS ARE DETERRED MAINLY BY CONCERNS RELATED TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19
• 3 in 5 of all surveys respondents do not plan an overseas trip betw een January-April 2021 due to a fear of exposure to COV ID-19. This trend is especially strong among
potential travellers in China, Brazil and the US.
• A significant number of respondents, especially in Japan (55%), Russia (32%) and the US (38%), shared that they w ere simply not planning to travel in the next months.
This decision is not a surprise considering the changes related to the opening and clos ing of borders, flight cancellations, quarantine measures and testing procedures,
w hich altogether turn the travel experience into an “administrative journey”.
• The volatile economic environment, w hich caused reduced affordability among consumers in some markets has also prevented people from planning long-haul trips at the
beginning of 2021 – a trend more apparent among Brazilian (17%) and Russian (15%) respondents.
• In China and Russia, 9% and 10% of respondents, respectively, did not plan trips as they felt their travel experience might be restrained due to the closure of tourist
attractions and facilities.
What is the m ain reason behind your decision not to travel overseas between January-April 2021?
75% 66%
60% 54% 55%
41% 38%
45%
33% 32%
26%
30% 22%
17% 16% 15%
9% 10% 12%
15% 6% 4% 6% 4% 6% 2%
4% 2% 1%
1% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 4% 0% 3% 1%
0%
BRAZIL CHINA JAPAN RUSSIA USA
I have safety concerns related to COVID-19 I did not plan to travel
Travel related costs Many experiences will not be available due to the COVID-19 measures
Restrictive requirements at the destination (e.g. duration of stay, wearing a mask, self-isolation) Travel is not allowed (e.g. borders are closed)
My trip was cancelledTHERE IS EITHER PESSIMISM OR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT VISITING EUROPE IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO
THE MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS NOT PLANNING TO TRAVEL TO EUROPE BETWEEN JANUARY- APRIL 2021 REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
VISITING THE REGION IN 2021 AND 2022
• The negative outlook is led by potential travellers in Japan and the US, w here most surveyed participants (69% and 54% respectively) are not considering Europe as a
travel destination in the next tw o years.
• Compared to other markets, the share of respondents keen to resume travel to Europe, w henever possible, is higher in Russia (21%) and China (16%). Nonetheless,
the percentage of respondents from these markets, w ho are pessimistic about visiting Europe in 2021 or 2022 is higher - 30% and 33% respectively.
When do you think you w ill travel to Europe next?
80%
69%
60% 54%
39%
40% 33% 30%
29% 29% 28%
21% 24%
17% 21%
20% 16%
11% 9% 12% 12% 11%
8% 8%
2% 5% 3% 4% 5% 2%
0% 1% 0% 0%
0%
May-August 2021 Sep-Dec 2021 In 2022 Whenever it is possible I don’t plan to trav el to Europe I don’t know y et
to travel to Europe again in the nex t 2 y ears
JAPAN USA BRAZIL CHINA RUSSIARESPONDENTS WHO SAMPLE SIZES PER MARKET:
INTEND TO TRAVEL Brazil: 459
China: 547
TO EUROPE Japan: 84*
Russia: 300
US: 300
between January-April 2021
Total sample: 1690
* Results for Japan are not presented in the individual market
slides due to the low sample sizeUNCERTAINTY IS APPARENT ALSO AMONG RESPONDENTS KEEN TO VISIT EUROPE
IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2021
45% OF RESPONDENTS ADMITTED TO HAVE NO IDEA
ABOUT THE TIMING OF THEIR FIRST “2021 TRIP” TO EUROPE
When do you plan to go on your next trip in Europe?
Average 45%
Percentages in the graph are rounded
(all m arkets)
80%
70% 66%
60%
52%
50%
43%
40% 33% 34%
30% 23% 23% 21%
20% 22% 20%
20% 16% 15%
12% 13% 13%
9% 11% 9% 11% 10%
10% 7% 6% 7%
4%
0%
In January In February In March In April I don't know yet
BRAZIL CHINA JAPAN RUSSIA USA
All respondents (1690)TRAVELLERS WILL EVALUATE DESTINATIONS’ OPTIONS FIRST BASED ON THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 CASES
AND THE COUNTRIES’ HEALTH STANDARDS & IMPLEMENTED PANDEMIC MEASURES
Which criteria for choosing a holiday destination becam e m uch m ore im portant, for you, as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak?
The destination has a low number of COVID-19 cases 36%
The destination implements measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. 35%
The destination is safe to visit (e.g. no civil unrest) 30%
The destination is not crowded 28%
The destination provides affordable services 22%
The destination has friendly and welcoming local communities 22%
The destination takes actions to preserve its natural and cultural heritage 21%
The destination offers easy access to the sites and attractions 21%
The destination offers experiences for all types of visitors
20%
(e.g. families, visitors with disabilities)
The destination has must-see, world-renowned sites to visit 20%
All respondents (1690)THE PRICIER TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS ARE PERCEIVED SAFER
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK
To w hat extent did your perception of m odes of transport, in term s of health and hygiene safety, change as a result of COVID-19 outbreak?
Less safe Much safer No change
Rented car Air (full service*) Train (high-speed)
USA 11% 57% 32% USA 20% 55% 26%
PERCEIVED USA 21% 55% 24%
SAFER RUSSIA 11% 56% 32% RUSSIA 27% 29% 45%
RUSSIA 44% 18% 39%
CHINA 15% 58% 28% CHINA 5% 77% 18%
CHINA 11% 66% 23%
BRAZIL 7% 72% 22% BRAZIL 14% 63% 23%
BRAZIL 22% 50% 29%
Air (low cost) Train (local) Bus/Motor coach
USA 30% 43% 27% USA 25% 47% 28%
USA 49% 21% 31%
PERCEIVED RUSSIA 48% 13% 39% RUSSIA 50% 13% 37%
LESS SAFE RUSSIA 21% 36% 43%
CHINA 28% 47% 25% CHINA 27% 44% 29%
CHINA 48% 23% 30%
BRAZIL 27% 43% 30% BRAZIL 44% 27% 30%
BRAZIL 48% 24% 28%
Please note that the perceived safety of transport mode, is not predictive of the actual behaviour of travellers.
*Full service flights typically offer passengers in flight entertainment, checked baggage, meals, beverages and comforts such as blankets and pillows in the ticket price. The seats generally have more recline than a low cost carrier as well as more leg room.BRAZIL BRAZILIANS DO NOT LIMIT FUTURE TRAVEL PLANS TO VISITING A SINGLE TYPE OF DESTINATION – THE MORE
DIVERSE THE PLACES ARE, THE BETTER
Preferred type of Number of countries to visit Preferred European
destination to visit while in Europe next time countries
Different types of places Top 10
46% Portugal 49%
France 31%
Italy 30%
Cities/ metropolitan areas
44% Spain 28%
Preferred transport to move
UK 19%
between countries
Germany 15%
The coast, beach resorts Greece 9%
19% Low cost flights 42% Sw itzerland 7%
Belgium 7%
Train pass 38%
The mountains, national parks Ireland 7%
18% Full service flight 37%
Countryside, rural areas
Rented car 30%
4% Single train ticket 28%
Monaco
A significantly higher / low er number of Brazilian respondents consider this
Travel horizon January-April 2021 destination for a trip betw een Jan-April’21 compared to the same period in 2020.CHINA CHINESE DEMONSTRATE A GROWING INTEREST IN EXPLORING NEW DESTINATIONS, WHILE THE DESIRE
FOR MULTIPLE-COUNTRY TRIPS STENGHTENS
Preferred type of Number of countries to visit Preferred European
destination to visit while in Europe next time countries
Top 10
The coast, beach resorts
France 36%
67%
Netherlands 28%
Cities/ metropolitan areas Germany 24%
61% Preferred transport to move Austria 22%
between countries Norway 20%
Different types of places Denmark 20%
33% Full service flight 73% Italy 20%
UK 19%
The mountains, national parks
Low cost flights 38% Belgium 18%
32% Train pass 31% Switzerland 18%
Countryside, rural areas Single train ticket 24%
21% Rented car 23%
Malta
A significantly higher / low er number of Chinese respondents consider this
Travel horizon January-April 2021 destination for a trip betw een Jan-April’21 compared to the same period in 2020.US EUROPE’S COASTS AND VIBRANT CITIES ARE A MAJOR DRAW FOR THE US TRAVELLERS. INTERESTINGLY,
RESPONDENTS SEEM KEENER TO GET A TRAIN PASS THAN RENTING A CAR TO MOVE AROUND
Preferred type of Number of countries to visit Preferred European
destination to visit while in Europe next time countries
Top 10
The coast, beach resorts UK 21%
40% France 16%
Germany 14%
Cities/ metropolitan areas Italy 14%
40% Preferred transport to move Spain 13%
between countries Norway 8%
Countryside, rural areas Austria 7%
23% Full service flight 47% Netherlands 7%
Switzerland 6%
Low cost flights 35%
The mountains, national parks Poland 6%
22% Train pass 34%
Different types of places
Rented car 24%
16% Single train ticket 22%
A significantly higher / low er number of US respondents consider this
Travel horizon January-April 2021 destination for a trip betw een Jan-April’21 compared to the same period in 2020.RUSSIA THINKING ABOUT THEIR NEXT TRIP TO EUROPE, RUSSIANS IMAGINE VISITING SUN AND BEACH LOCATIONS.
TURKEY IS NOW RANKED THE MOST POPULAR DESTINATION FOR TRIPS BETWEEN JANUARY- APRIL 2021
Preferred type of Number of countries to visit Preferred European
destination to visit while in Europe next time countries
Top 10
The coast, beach resorts Turkey 15%
41% Italy 14%
France 13%
Sig increase as last years it was 1.9
Cities/ metropolitan areas Czech Rep. 12%
33% Preferred transport to move Greece 12%
between countries Spain 12%
Different types of places Finland 10%
30% Full service flight 42% Cyprus 10%
Germany 10%
Low cost flights 39%
The mountains, national parks Montenegro 10%
19% Rented car 26%
Train pass 18%
Countryside, rural areas
7% Single train ticket 16%
Malta
A significantly higher / low er number of Russian respondents consider this
Travel horizon January-April 2021 destination for a trip betw een Jan-April’21 compared to the same period in 2020.WORK WITH US,
JOIN THE PROJECT!
The primary goal of the project is to provide an index that anticipates the
short-term intensions for travel in overseas markets that are key for the
LONG-HAUL TRAVEL European tourism industry.
BAROMETER The project offers the opportunity to interested partners to investigate
motivations and barriers to travel in long-haul market(s) in detail and ask
specific questions, sharing the overall costs of the survey architecture.
Contact us if you are interested to learn more about the project and the
cooperation opportunities.You can also read
