LO STATO DELLA SIDERURGIA EUROPEA - Mercato e Dintorni - Siderweb 13 Aprile 2021 Alessandro Sciamarelli
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LO STATO DELLA SIDERURGIA EUROPEA
Mercato e Dintorni - Siderweb
13 Aprile 2021
Alessandro Sciamarelli
Director, Economic and Market ResearchECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2
Confidence indicators show a rebound after the record falls in
Q2 ‘20, albeit already easing due pandemic-related uncertainty
(stronger for the industry than the general economy)
Economic Sentiment Indicator
(Long-term average=100) 20
Industrial Confidence Indicator
120 (balance of positive and negative answers)
110 10
100
0
90
80 -10
70
-20
60
50 -30
40
gen-07
mag-16
gen-17
gen-09
gen-11
mag-12
gen-13
gen-19
mag-10
mag-14
gen-15
mag-08
set-11
mag-18
set-07
set-13
set-15
set-17
set-09
set-19
mag-20
gen-21
-40
gen-11
mag-12
gen-07
mag-08
gen-09
mag-10
gen-13
mag-14
gen-19
gen-15
gen-17
mag-18
mag-16
set-07
set-09
set-11
set-13
set-19
set-15
set-17
mag-20
gen-21
Source: European Commission
• Data since Q3 2020 has signalled an increasingly two-speed economy: whilst
manufacturing output growth was sustained, and to the strongest degree in
over two and-a-half years, service sector activity has continued to
deteriorate
12 April 2021ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
Latest quarterly GDP data and evolution of growth forecast:
- The q/o/q real GDP rebound seen in Q3 ‘20 is already over: negative growth in
most countries in Q4
Worst economic recession in 2020 ever
Many advanced economies entered 2021 with a negative carryover from Q4
2020..
Q4 2020 (q-o-q) 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021
(EC Feb. (EC Feb. (OECD (IMF Apr. (EUROFER
‘21) ‘21) Mar. ‘21) ‘21) Jan.’21)
US +4% 6.5% 6.4%
(annualised)
Germany 0.1% -5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.6% 4.2%%
France -1.3% -8.3% 5.5% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0%
Italy -2.0% -8.8% 3.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.9%
EU -0.4% -6.3% 3.7% 5.0%
Euro area -0.6% -6.8% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4%
12 April 2021STEEL-USING SECTORS 4
Continued, unprecedented decline in steel-using sectors output
up to Q3 2020 Output in steel-using
Real output, s.a. year-on-year growth rates, % sectors has been
slowing down
Construction Automotive considerably
Mechanical Engineering Domestic Appliances
20 throughout 2019
Total SWIP
(except for
10
construction)
0 culminating in record
-10 falls in automotive (-
44%) in Q2 2020
-20
-30 Q2 2020 has been the
-40 trough of the cycle
-50
Industrial activity has
restarted in Q3 (despite
Quarter I/2017
Quarter II/2017
Quarter III/2017
Quarter IV/2017
Quarter I/2018
Quarter II/2018
Quarter III/2018
Quarter IV/2018
Quarter I/2019
Quarter II/2019
Quarter III/2019
Quarter IV/2019
Quarter I/2020
Quarter II/2020
Quarter III/2020 still negative y-o-y
growth rates)
Automotive faster than
expected
Monday, April 12, 2021STEEL-USING SECTORS 5
Industry leading indicators signal record falls in Q2 2020 followed by
two q-o-q rebounds in Q3 and Q4, albeit still negative y-o-y
Orders, balance of positive and negative answers 10
Industrial Production, year-on-year growth rates,
40 Outbreak of 5
seasonally adjusted (%)
the pandemic
20 0
0 -5
-20 -10 EU
Germany
Construction -15
-40
Spain
Mechanical Engineering
-20 France
-60 Motor Vehicles
Metal Goods Italy
-25
-80
gen-18
gen-17
lug-18
apr-20
lug-17
ott-17
ott-18
gen-19
ott-19
lug-19
apr-17
apr-18
apr-19
gen-20
gen-21
lug-20
ott-20
-30
Orders not yet back to pre-covid levels
Strongest rebound for automotive in Q4 ‘20
12 April 2021STEEL-USING SECTORS 6
Steel-using sectors were already hit in 2019 by worsening conditions in global trade and
the weakening manufacturing cycle, 2020 being slashed by the pandemic
Rebound is seen in 2021, automotive being the most severely hit in 2020
Real output, s.a., y-o-y change (%) Latest EUROFER forecast (output
growth, Jan. ‘21, y-o-y, %)
Pre-Covid-19
Financial Crisis recession
2020 2021
2009 2010 2018 2019
Construction -9.5 -3.0 3.7 3.6 Construction -5.7 4.3
Mechanical Mechanical -11.5 7.0
-25.4 11.5 4.0 -0.4
Engineering Engineering
Automotive -26.3 20.0 -0.9 -5.0 Automotive -19.5 15.9
Domestic Domestic -3.6 4.8
-16.0 -2.1 -1.5 -1.7 Appliances
Appliances
Total SWIP -19.7 6.0 2.7 0.1 Total SWIP -11.0 7.4
Monday, April 12, 2021STEEL-USING SECTORS 7
Construction Confidence Indicator CONSTRUCTION
(balance of positive and negative answers)
• Current Situation
20
10 The EU construction confidence indicator had
0 remained well above its long-term average over
-10
the first half of 2019 but has continued to
decline since then.
-20
This trend has continued in early 2020 according
-30 to available figures, before plummeting to the
-40 lowest level since 2015 in April, followed by
mag-12
gen-07
mag-10
gen-11
gen-13
mag-14
gen-15
gen-17
mag-16
set-07
mag-08
gen-09
set-11
set-13
set-15
set-17
mag-18
mag-20
gen-19
set-09
set-19
gen-21
moderate recovery (around very low levels)
• Outlook 2021-2022
EU governments+ Next Gen EU will provide
impetus to public construction and
infrastructure projects.
Output in private residential and particularly
non-residential (offices, commercial) will
continue to be rather weak.
Construction output set to fall by -5.7% in 2020,
and will rebound by +4.3% in 2021.
Monday, April 12, 2021STEEL-USING SECTORS 8
AUTOMOTIVE
• Current Situation
In February 2021, new car registrations
in the EU dropped by -19% year-on-year
Although consumer demand has not
recovered yet once dealerships
opened again after lockdown
measures were lifted:
o Demand-wise, steel demand from
ethe automotive sector increased
very quickly in Q4. Catching up
EU Automotive Sector with supply to meet this rapid
Index 2015=100 Production Activity - forecast from Q4-2020 %-change increase takes some time
140 15
However, COVID containment
130 5 measures and uncertainty continue to
120
-5 weigh heavily on demand.
110
100 -15
90 -25
• Outlook 2020-2021
80 Output in the automotive sector is set
-35
70
y-o-y change (RH-axis) to be mostly hit than all other sectors
60
Production Index (LH-axis) -45 in2020, with an annual slump of -19.5,
50 -55 followed by a rebound of 15.9% in 2021
as the current supply issues will be
back to normal
Monday, April 12, 2021EU STEEL MARKET 9
Long-term decline in steel production in the EU
Crude Steel Production (all qualities), EU, m tonnes
190 30,0
180 Crude Steel Production, mTon
20,0
170 Year-on-year change, %
10,0
160
150 0,0
140 -10,0
130
-20,0
120
110 -30,0
100 -40,0
Y 2008
Y 2009
Y 2010
Y 2011
Y 2012
Y 2013
Y 2014
Y 2015
Y 2016
Y 2017
Y 2018
Y 2019
Y 2020 (ytd)
- Production in the EU has never recovered from the losses experienced in 2009
- The production drop in 2020 has not been the lowest on record: -12.1% vs. -30% in
2009
- CAGR 2008-2020: -2.7%
12 April 2021EU STEEL MARKET 10
Same decline in apparent consumption
Evident downturn before the onset of the pandemic
Apparent Steel Consumption, EU, quarterly data,
k tonnes
Start of the downturn
55.000 (Q3 ’18)
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
12 April 2021EU STEEL MARKET 11
Continued, severe fall in steel consumption throughout 2020
• Apparent steel consumption falling
Y-o-y change %
Apparent Consumption Imports since early 2019, well before the
5 pandemic, reflecting negative trend in
steel demand, manufacturing
0 dowturn and destocking
-0,8 -1,1 • Apparent consumption:
-5 -0,9 -3,1
• -11.6% in Q3 ‘20 (-25% in Q2)
-6,8
-10 • -5.3% in 2019, then expected to
-15
-11,0 -10,9 -11,6 plummet by -13% (vs. -14.6% in our
previous forecast) in 2020 and
-20 -16,8 rebound by 13.3% in 2021
-19,2 -19,9
-25
-25,4 • Real consumption is expected to fall
-23,9 -25,0
-30 by -11% in 2020 and to rebound by 7.5%
in 2021
Quarter I/2019
Quarter II/2019
Quarter III/2019
Quarter IV/2019
Quarter I/2020
Quarter II/2020
Quarter III/2020
12 April 2021EU STEEL MARKET 12
Despite falling demand, market share of imports has not
decreased in historical terms, for flat products in particular
Share of imports out of demand, Share of imports out of demand,
%, Flat %, Long
22,3
14,8
20,5
19,9
17,8 10,0 9,6 9,1 9,1 9,3 8,8
17,5
17,0 16,7
16,0 7,5
Q1 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020
12 April 2021EU STEEL MARKET 13
EU steel trade balance has turned into a record deficit already in 2019
reflecting surging imports and foreign market restrictions
Change of Foreign Trade Balance 2019/13
(in Million Tonnes, Finished Steel Products )
EU-28 -15,1
Japan -7,8
Ukraine -5,1
Mexico -2,0
United States -1,1
Kazakhstan 0,1
Singapore 1,5
Canada 1,6
ASEAN5 2,1
Iran 2,3
Turkey 2,7
Brazil 2,9
China 4,0
12 April 2021CONCLUSIONI (1) 14
• Le economie europee (e OCSE) hanno superato il minimo del ciclo
dopo il terzo trimestre 2020. Tuttavia, gli indicatori anticipatori e di
fiducia nell’Ue segnalano ancora una ripresa debole e diseguale tra i
paesi europei. Maggiore incertezza legata all’implementazione delle
vaccinazioni di massa, in forte ritardo
• Ripresa trainata dall’industria, tornata alla piena operativita’. Servizi
ancora molto depressi
• La recessione record del Pil del 2020 (-6.3% nell’Ue, -8.8% in Italia) ha
avuto un trascinamento negativo nel Q1 2021
• Supporto pubblico senza precedenti a livello Ue (NextGenEU da 750
mld EUR, acquisti di bond della BCE fino a Marzo 2022) . Tuttavia, I
tempi di attuazione sono incerti: approvazioni a livello di singolo
stato nazionale, cosi’come gli effetti (considerevole aumento del
debito pubblico; problema anche sulla qualita’del debito: spesa in
conto capitale (infrastrutture, opere pubbliche ecc..) vs debito in
spesa corrente (sostegno ai redditi, stabilizzatori automatici)
• In altre regioni (Cina, ma anche US) l’economia ha ripreso a
velocita’molto sostenuta
Source: COMEXT, EUROFERCONCLUSIONS (2) 15
• Settori utilizzatori dell’acciaio pesantemente impattati dalla pandemia, ma
un rallentamento (poi recessione) era visibile gia’nel 2019. Il Q2 2020 dato
peggiore di sempre. Da allora, rimbalzo piu’sostenuto del previsto,
soprattutto dal settore auto
• L’output del settore automotive (18% della domanda di acciaio) cade del
20% nel 2020 e rimbalzera ’nel 2021. Tuttavia, la domanda di automobili
resta debole e soggetta a numerose variabili di incertezza
• Le costruzioni (35% della domanda di acciaio) sono state colpite in misura
relativamente minore. OO.PP. sostenute dalle politiche pubbliche.
Residenziale con modeste prospettive data la dinamica dei redditi delle
famiglie, nonostante i tassi d’interesse bassissimi. Privato non residenziale
(uffici, commerciale ecc) colpito molto pesantemente (remote working
ecc). Poche prospettive di ripresa nel breve termine
• Il settore elettrodomestici ha gia’recuperato nel Q3 2020, probabilmente
spinto dal remote working
Source: COMEXT, EUROFERCONCLUSIONS (3) 16
• La domanda di acciaio (dati non definitivi) cade nel 2020
del 13%, seconda caduta annuale consecutiva (-5.3% nel
2019) . Dati Q2 2020 peggiori di sempre (-25%
tendenziale). Q3: rimbalzo congiunturale ma sempre
caduta tendenziale (ancorche’minore: -12%)
• Rimbalzo atteso per il 2021 (13.3%), ma sempre soggetto a
molta incertezza (domanda debole).
• Importazioni anch’esse in calo nel 2020 (-25% nel Q3
2020) ma la quota sul totale della domanda Ue non
diminuisce, in particolar modo per i prodotti piani
12 April 2021THANK YOU
A.Sciamarelli@eurofer.eu
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