Lithium Report 2018 Everything you need to know about lithium! - www.resource-capital.ch | - Liberty One Lithium Corp.
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Lithium Report 2018 Everything you need to know about lithium! www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
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Preface Dear reader, it is with great pleasure that we are ente- clean local public transport with a range Jochen Staiger is founder and CEO of ring the second year of our Lithium Spe- of over 300 km. Volkswagen wants to in- Swiss Resource Capital AG, located in cial Report. Swiss Resource Capital AG vest around € 10 billion in the electro mo- Herisau, Switzerland. As chief-editor has made it its business to topically and - and founder of the first two resource comprehensively inform precious metals ting 2025 sell more than one million IP-TV-channels Commodity-TV and its and commodity investors, interested electric cars per year. German counterpart Rohstoff-TV, he parties and the individual who wants to reports about companies, experts, become an investor in various commodi- All this will be an enormous drive for the fund managers and various themes ties and mining companies. On our web- lithium demand and in the interview with around the international mining site www.resource-capital.ch you will Tobias Tretter you will read how and in business and the correspondent which directions the developments ad- metals. well as articles about the topic commodi- vance. Commodities are the base of our ties. economic activities. Without commodi- ties there are no technical innovations A year ago, we started our series of spe- and no products that can be manufactu- cial reports with lithium because we con- red with new materials. sider this metal to be one of the great future metals in the energy sector and, in With our special reports we would like to spite of the already happened boom, see give you the necessary insights and in- big chances and potentials in the short form you comprehensively. term. The battery development is only at In addition, our two Commodity IPTV the beginning of a long road and the channels www.Commodity-TV.net & electric automobile has to capture its are available to place among consumers and in the auto- you free of charge. For on the go we re- mobile history. Lithium is the main com- commend our new Commodity-TV App ponent of all available large-scale pro- for iPhone or Android which also provi- duction batteries and accumulators and des real-time charts, share prices and therefore the crucial link in the electro the latest videos. mobility dream. The necessary charging infrastructure is pushed along and ex- My team and I hope you will enjoy rea- panded in Germany which might accele- ding this Special Lithium Report and Tim Roedel is chief-editorial- and rate the future trend. hope that we can provide you with new chief-communications-manager at information, impressions and ideas. Only SRC AG. He has been active in the The annual Paris car show was dedica- the one who gets broadly informed and commodity sector since 2007 and ted to the electro mobility in the past ye- takes matters relating to investments in held several editor- and chief-editor- ars and the 2018 shows in Geneva as his own hand will be in the winners and positions, e.g. at the publications Rohstoff-Spiegel, Rohstoff-Woche, issue of the short range should resolve times. Rohstoffraketen, Wahrer Wohlstand itself with new accumulator technologies and First Mover. He owns an enormous commodity expertise and a This will drastically increase the demand Yours Jochen Staiger wide-spread network within the whole for electric cars. According to experts resource sector. the demand increase will be based on the formula “500+200” meaning 500 km range plus 200 km reserve. Then, it is be- lieved, the die-hard driver of combustion engines will switch to electric cars. Daim- ler-Benz is already working on a bus for 9 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Lithium – the most important substance of the 21st century is just gaining momentum! Carbon was the past – Lithium Usually metallic lithium is produced in a is the future multi-stage process starting from lithium carbonate, and is traded mostly with a Rarely was a chemical element of similar purity of 99.5 %. The metallic lithium is great importance as lithium will be in the used as a catalyst in the chemical and coming decades. Since the announce- pharmaceutical industry as well as in the ment of Tesla Motors’ plans to build up to production of aluminum lithium alloys. 500,000 electric vehicles per year in its mega-factory starting 2017, lithium, in The industry distinguishes three basic ty- connection with lithium-ion batteries, is pes or qualities of lithium compounds: on everyone’s lips. The metal in its future - 1. “Industrial grade”, with a purity of over bon that is not only important in daily life - in the form of plastics but also as energy bricant; source in form of coal and crude oil. 2. “Technical grade”, with a purity around Whereas carbon above all is an energy 99.5 % for ceramics, lubricants and supplier and energy source, lithium will batteries; and become more and more the energy sto- 3. “Battery grade”, with a purity of over rage medium of the future. 99.5 % especially for high end battery cathode materials. What is lithium? Main application area: batteries Lithium is a light metal belonging to the and accumulators alkali metal group. It is the least dense of all known solid elements. It has half the - weight of water, is silver-gray and relati- satile properties make lithium a vely soft. Lithium is highly reactive and sought-after material used in many appli- therefore found in nature only as a lithium cation areas. It is not a surprise that the compound. Contact with air tarnishes main application area of lithium was the surface due to the formation of lithi- constantly changing in the past. Initially it um oxide and lithium nitride. In pure oxy- was used primarily in medicine and in the gen lithium combusts at 1800 Celsius 1950’s the element became commercial- ly successful as an alloy component. oxide. Lithium reacts with water violently Due to its low weight and the positive forming lithium hydroxide. properties regarding to tensile strength, hardness and elasticity lithium became an inherent part of the aerospace The global lithium extraction is divided in technique. During the past 20 years the several branches producing the following situation changed. In the course of the types of lithium compounds: beginning of the electro revolution it was recognized that due to the low standard 1. Lithium carbonate electrode potential of lithium the metal is 2. Lithium hydroxide almost perfectly suited as the anode in 3. Lithium chloride batteries. Lithium batteries are characte- 4. Butyl lithium and rized by a very high energy density and 5. Lithium metal can generate a very high voltage, but they are not rechargeable. This property is found in lithium-ion accumulators 10 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz
where lithium metal oxides, like lithium ge of lithium ions. Due to the high energy cobalt oxide, are used as cathode mate- density lithium-ion accumulators deliver rial. For the production of accumulators – in contrast to conventional mercury or and batteries purity grades above 99.5 nickel based batteries – a constant per- % are needed. Industrial grade lithium formance throughout the discharge peri- hydroxide is used, among other things, od and not subjected to any memory ef- as raw material for lubricants as well as fect - that is, the gradual capacity loss coolants and technical grade lithium throughout their service life due to many hydroxide is used in the production of partial discharges. Therefore lithium-ion accumulators and batteries. Lithium accumulators have a clear advantage carbonate – crystalline, granulated or as over conventional nickel-cadmium accu- powder – for example is used for the mulators. electrolytic production of aluminum, in the ceramic and pharmaceutical industry as well as in the alloy technique. For the The production requires large production of lithium-ion-accumulators, quantities of lithium The “disadvantage”: the production of (battery grade powder). The extraction lithium-ion accumulators requires large and processing of (especially high grade) quantities of lithium. Every smartphone lithium is considered to be very expensive. contains 5 to 7 grams LCE (Lithium Car- bonate Equivalent). In a notebook or tab- let there are 20 to 40 grams. Power tools Lithium-ion accumulators are like electric screwdrivers or electric saws considered the non-plus-ultra need 40 to 60 grams for their accumula- tors. A storage unit with a capacity of Currently research is conducted and 10KWh for domestic use contains around works done globally on increasing the 23 kg LCE and the accumulators for power of accumulators for electric cars. electric cars contain 40 to 80 kg. A pow- In the meantime, it has become evident er storage unit with a capacity of 650MWh that the lithium-ion accumulator is a clear contains 1.5 tons of LCE. Billions of favorite. One reason among others is smartphones and the high millions of that inside a lithium-ion accumulator the notebooks, power tools, cars, e-bikes voltage is generated through the exchan- etc. adds up to a demand of several 100,000 tons of LCE per year. Application in the area of rege- nerative energies The application of lithium in lithium-ion batteries or accumulators in car manu- facturing is only one of many possible uses. Corresponding energy storage systems will be increasingly used for the storage of electricity derived from alter- native energy sources. The phenomenal expansion of the power generation in wind farms or solar cells is a giant advan- 11 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
tage for the environment but an enor- mous challenge for the power grids. The Supply Situation during power generation by regenerative Two types of lithium deposits energy sources. When the wind blows or the sun shines large quantities of electric In general lithium is derived from two dif- energy are “pumped” into the grid in a ferent sources. very short time creating enormous short lived overcapacities that are not used. 1. Brine deposits: Lithium carbonate is According to calculations of the German primarily derived by evaporating the Federal Association of Wind Energy 20 lithium bearing brines with addition of percent of the annual return of a wind sodium carbonate in salt lakes. For farm is lost due to turbine shutdown du- the production of metallic lithium, the ring power grid overload. lithium carbonate is dissolved in hy- drochloric acid which produces car- bon dioxide that escapes as gas and The biggest future field of lithium chloride in solution. This solu- application for lithium-ion tion is reduced in the vacuum evapo- accumulators: Decentralized rator until crystallization of the lithium Energy Storage chloride. Smart-Grid-Systems should prevent a 2. “Hard rock spodumene” deposits: in power grid overload but need a large this case the lithium compounds are number of short and middle term energy not derived from the salt of salt lakes storage systems to store the surplus but from spodumene, a lithium bea- energy and feed it into the grid when the- ring aluminum silicate mineral. The re is a lack of wind and solar power. Lithi- spodumene is mined using conventi- um-ion accumulators could be the soluti- onal techniques and processed to a concentrate that is often transformed surplus energy and feeding it into the to lithium carbonate with a purity of grid on demand. Many producers alrea- more than 99.5 %. The necessary in- - tensive thermal and hydrometallurgi- tors that will be used decentralized in a cal processes are considered as very family home with a photovoltaic system expensive. This type of deposit is al- on the roof. An example is the Tesla Po- most exclusively mined in Australia werwall, a solar battery for private homes and the processing takes place pri- which is produced in the Tesla mega-fac- marily in Chinese facilities. tory in Nevada, USA, since October 2015. The electric energy storage system Recently more and more exploration and consists of accumulators, charge control development companies count on a third and a liquid cooling system. It is possible source of lithium; the possibility to ext- for private customers to connect up to 9 ract lithium from old exploited oil reser- batteries to reach a total capacity of 57.6 voirs. The lithium is extracted from was- kWh. With this, Tesla got the ball rolling tewater remaining in the reservoir. The and by doing so is making the decentra- viability of this process was proven seve- lized energy storage cheaper as well as ral times. In addition, this unusual lithium - production is economically feasible. The- portant driver for the lithium market. become the focus of the lithium industry. 12 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz
Currently, around 80 % of the total lithium production worldwide originates in four countries.(Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries / Lithium X) Lithium is abundant Currently Lithium production is focused primarily in four coun- In the past it was wrongly assumed that tries and by four companies a global switch from conventional com- bustion engines to electric motors is im- Currently, around 80 % of the total lithi- possible due to lack of lithium. That is um production worldwide originates in not quite right. Lithium is not that rare in these three South American countries the earth, accounting for approximately plus Australia and production is split bet- 0.006 % of the earth‘s crust, therefore ween four companies. As a result, the rarer than zinc, copper and tungsten but whole lithium market is lacking transpa- a bit more common than cobalt, tin and rency. This is the reason the big battery lead. According to estimates of the US and accumulator producers like Panaso- Geological Survey, there are 40 million nic and the leading electric car manufac- tons of lithium mineable globally, 65 % of turers, above all Tesla Motors, are look- that alone in the South American coun- ing for long-term supply contracts with tries of Bolivia, Chile and Argentina. Cur- relatively small development companies rently the biggest lithium carbonate pro- that in part are not producing before duction takes place in the Salar de 2020. As a result of this supply oligopoly, Atacama, a salt lake in the northern Chi- lithium is currently not traded in the mar- lean province of Antofagasta. Approxi- ket and the actual trading prices are mately 40 % of the global lithium produc- tion originates in this region. mentioned by the supplier is that the available and produced lithium qualities - ket place. 13 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
From 2017 on, the lithium market went into a supply deficit. Source: Orocobre, Advantage Lithium Lithium production will increase per ton lithium carbonate. Either way, sharply this is a lucrative business for the pro- ducer because the mining costs at cur- In 2015 the global lithium production (for rent projects are US$ 3,200 to 6,500 per standardization reasons LCE = “lithium ton. Lithium hydroxide shows similar carbonate equivalent” a universal con- numbers. From a quantitative point lithi- version factor for all above mentioned lithium compounds) was approximately battery, but accounts for only roughly 4-5 175,000 tons LCE. According to projec- % of the costs of a battery. Hence the tions, this number will increase to 330,000 tons LCE by 2020. The latter is the production of lithium ion batteries not based on concrete mine expansions and could be kept at an economic level or new mines. for the lithium producer. The price is always crucial but Development companies work relatively negligible for the under high pressure at new accumulator production! projects, … In the end the price is only important for As the big companies Albemarle, SQM, the economic extraction of the existing FMC and Tianqi have plans to increase lithium deposits. In the past months the their production and at the same have no price has risen sharply. In mid-2015 the interest in falling lithium prices, many de- price for a ton lithium carbonate was velopment companies work on the ad- around US$ 6,000 and has climbed to vancement of new lithium projects and the presently over US$ 25,000 and surely the delineation of concrete deposits and just a snap shot. We can assume that the resources. price will settle, in the middle to long term, between US$ 10,000 and 12,000 14 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz
… in part at new lithium hot Summary supply side spots The lithium production is (still) in the Therefore, besides the typical lithium re- hands of a few producers. The worldwi- gions South America and Australia, new de biggest lithium producer Albemarle regions in North America and especially acquired Rockwood Holdings, the owner Canada, Mexico and (due to the proximi- of the two largest lithium deposits in Chi- ty to the future top consumer Tesla Mo- le at the beginning of 2015. Albemarle tors) the US, especially the US-state Ne- and three other companies, SQM, FMC vada emerge as lithium hot spots. In the and Tianqui (i.a. Albemarle’s joint venture past years the Clayton Valley in Nevada partner in Australia) share the lithium has become the Lithium-Eldorado market mostly between each other. Al- because it hosts Albemarle’s Silver Peak though there is seemingly enough lithium Mine, the only operating brine lithium on the planet, the extraction can be cost- mine in North America. The Clayton Val- ly and time consuming so that higher ley is one of the few areas worldwide prices are not an automatically leading to where commercially mineable lithium bri- a supply increase. The supply should in- nes are found. Recently, Pure Energy Mi- crease in the coming years but forecas- Tesla Motors. Another important hot spot due to current lack of data for potential is in Argentina’s northwest where Oro- mine extensions or construction of new cobre operates the Olaroz lithium mine. mines. Increased exploration activities In this region and in nearby Chile, some by (smaller) development companies are development companies like Millenial indications of the potential establishment Lithium and Lithium X are active and of new mines. Development of the lithium carbonate price were also be able to announce some gre- and transformational bull events at results. (Source: Asian Metals, Navigant Research, Wealth Minerals) 15 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Demand situation sible that Tesla will purchase the neces- sary lithium from its previous cathode partner Panasonic. On the other hand, The demand is rising rapidly! there is the possibility to buy the needed lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate One reason for the current rapid price directly from the relevant producer. The development is a constantly rising de- mand. In 2000 the demand was at appro- agreements with only two lithium develo- ximately 65,000 tons LCE and reached pers in Nevada and Mexico. These two 184,000 tons LCE by 2015. For 2025, companies (Pure Energy Minerals and experts are estimating a LCE demand of Bacanora Minerals plus their joint ven- more than 530,000 tons! ture partner Rare Earth Minerals) will most likely not start with production be- fore 2020 and satisfy only part of Tesla’s The driving factor will primarily be the de- demand. This indicates that Tesla has no mand from the battery and accumulator reliable lithium supplier between 2017 sector in association with the automotive and 2020 and they still have to secure industry. But also, the energy storage sector will create an immense demand. time afterwards to guarantee acceptable 2015, only one third of the lithium de- prices and to become independent from mand came from the battery sector; by middlemen like Panasonic. 2025 it will probably reach 70 %. … but the action is elsewhere North America is Tesla by now! Country … Although Tesla’s share at the global lithi- Outside Asia, North America in particular um demand will be 10% after completi- is dominating the lithium demand. Tesla on of its Gigafactory 1 it is already clear Motors is playing an important part abo- that Asia will need much more lithium. ve all. The company is constructing its so China alone accounts for one third of the called “Gigafactory 1” in Nevada. Since total demand, today. Experts estimate 2016 lithium-ion cells, battery packs, this will not change soon because China (Source: McKinsey, Bloomberg New Energy electric motors and drive units for up to produces the most accumulators, batte- Finance, Deutsche Bank, Wealth Minerals) 500,000 electric vehicles per year are ries, glass, lubricants, air conditioning built there. In the future it could be pos- units and synthetic rubber by far. This stimulates the immense lithium consumption of the country. According to expectations China will have the strongest yearly increase in lithium de- mand of all important market partici- pants during the coming 5 to 10 years due to an expected tripling of the quan- tity of rechargeable batteries. Additional important suppliers of lithium-ion batte- ries including South Korea and Japan will also guarantee a robust increase of the lithium demand. The highlights are by far the electronic giants Sony, Panas- onic, Samsung, LG, BYD, Boston Power, Lishen and CATL. 16 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz
In the coming years, around 300 new electric car models are in the pipeline (Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Nemaska Lithium) Additional giga-factories in the 2. The car manufacturers and (initially) construction stage above all Tesla Motors, but also from all other leading car manufacturers. Tesla is not the only lithium consumer 3. The producer of power banks i.e. who plans a bigger production of lithi- decentralized energy storage units um-ion accumulators. LG Chem has al- which are used in the private and in- ready begun production for Chevy in Mi- dustrial sector where electricity is chigan in October 2015. Also, Foxconn, produced by photovoltaic cells as BYD (largest producer of rechargeable well as wind power stations and used accumulators especially for cell phones), for their own needs. Lishen, CATL and Boston Power are buil- ding their own giga-factories for, among This constellation will increase the lithi- other things, so called power banks, i.e. um demand by 100% and beyond during decentralized energy storage units. The- the coming 5 years whereby the power refore, the produced capacity of lithi- banks will generate the biggest demand um-ion accumulators could more than increase and could eclipse the other sec- triple by 2020. tors. Summary demand side Conclusion Currently, the lithium market is clearly a supply oligopoly-market. This means few suppliers face many customers. Unlike 1. The Asian electronic groups, which rare earth elements the market power is aim primarily for the mass production not with one country (China) but with four of powerful lithium-ion batteries and accumulators for the daily use in mul- four countries: Australia, Argentina, Boli- timedia devices etc. via and Chile. Currently, several (smaller) 17 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
In the coming years, around 300 new electric car models are in the pipeline (Source: Scharfsinn/shutterstock.com) development companies advance and try to bring to production good projects not interested in a lower market price. not only in the previous production coun- This is the reason why smaller lithium tries but also in Canada, USA (above all companies will have very good develop- in Clayton Valley a downright playground ment and production opportunities. Be- for lithium developers), Australia, Zim- sides, from a quantitative point lithium babwe, Mexico, Serbia and some other - countries. One reason is the rapidly gro- tery, but it accounts for only roughly 4-5 wing demand which, in the course of the % of the costs of a battery. Hence the electro revolution, is exploding. The low - price for crude oil is playing, if at all, a duction of lithium ion batteries and could minor part because lithium is used above be kept at an economic level for the lithi- all as a medium for energy storage and um producer. The lithium companies not for energy generation. whose projects are at a very advanced stage should see the biggest upward emerging on the market from now on, price potential in the coming months and because the demand increase will possibly consolidation that is via takeo- exceed the supply expansion in the fu- ver scenarios. ture. Because there is no end of the de- mand increase in sight past 2025 and Following we present a few of these acti- there are no big noteworthy lithium pro- ve lithium development companies. duction projects in the pipeline, that con- dition could last for a foreseeable time. In addition, the few suppliers have a sig- 18 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz
Interview with Tobias Tretter – Manager of Structured Solutions Lithium Index Strategic Fund Mr. Tretter you are the manager of the Structured Solutions Lithium Index doing so. Currently the resources graphi- Strategic Fund. Which strategies do te, cobalt or magnesium are very interes- you follow and what does the fund ting. For example, cobalt used as catho- represent? de has some superior properties like a faster recharging of batteries. But cobalt The fund was established in 2010 becau- is not fully used by the battery producers se we were aware of the potential for the because the biggest part of the global resource Lithium at that time. We couldn’t production comes from the Congo and is realize our original idea of a physical ba- thereby not a reliable source of this metal. Tobias Tretter has been active in the Also, the mining conditions in the Congo mining sector since 2000. During his - are very questionable and not only inves- activity at Dr. Jens Ehrhard Wealth delible and cannot be stored in a safe. tors but buyers as well avoid this produc- Management he supported the The only interesting possibility for our cli- tion. The demand for reliable sources and management of the DJE Gold & ents was a public fund which invests di- ethically and environmentally clean mined Resources Fund, which was awarded rectly into the 25 biggest producers and cobalt is enormous and will be another as the best performing commodity developers of lithium deposits. We didn’t trend in the years to come. We have di- fund of 2003. From 2005 to 2008 he want to invest directly into the battery - co-managed the Stabilitas Funds, producers, because in contrast to the lit- versify even more in the future. Regarding which have been awarded as the the risks we think that it is not too risky. "best performing Gold Fund" in 2006. the higher lithium prices in the long term As soon as the trend weakens and other Since 2009, Mr. Tretter acts as CEO but rather have to pay these. Our inves- resources due to a shift in demography or and responsible person for the the reduced exploration activities, beco- Index- and Portfolio-Managements of directly from the coming boom for lithium me interesting the fund can be realigned Commodity Capital AG. He is brought on by the demand for lithium bat- at any time. The fund is a niche product managing the Commodity Capital teries, based on electric cars or power and thought as an addition in a broad di- Global Mining Fund (ISIN: walls, without the risk of single invest- LU0459291166), the Structured ments. In the past year we rearranged the in the success of electric cars and power Solutions Lithium Index Strategie investment universe of the fund from pure walls he has the choice to buy shares of Fund (ISIN: LU0470205575) and the lithium investments to battery metals. We one or two companies in the sector or a Managed Accounts of Commodity think that besides lithium the demand for - Capital. Tobias Tretter holds a cobalt, magnesium, graphite or zinc will tions of the sector the investors should business diploma degree from the also increase in the coming years and we - University of Bayreuth. want to give our investor the possibility to tments in order to minimize the risk of a single stock. That it can be useful having a “niche product” in the portfolio for the long term we could demonstrate last year Is such a fund which is focused at a with the receipt of the Lipper Fund Award niche resource not too specialized and for the best resource fund of the past thereby too risky? three years. Yes and no. The fund is very specialized, but the success of the lithium sector con- In the past 10 years we have observed - once in a while the formation of tial for the resource lithium but also see bubbles in “trend resources”. The the demand for other resources needed uranium bubble and the hype around in lithium batteries. Therefore, we have the rare earth elements, graphite etc. together with the restructuring of the fund comes to mind. Why should it be expanded our investment universe and different for lithium? 19 www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
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