Life Science Day 26 November 2020 - Amazon S3
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Life Science Day 26 November 2020
LIFE SCIENCE DAY 2020
Table of contents
About Redeye 4
Redeye Technology Team 5
Transactions 8
Covered Companies (2-pagers A-X) 10
Disclaimer 99
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
2 3
w
ABOUT REDEYE RESEARCH-POWERED INVESTMENT BANKING THE REDEYE LIFE SIENCE TEAM
Leading Nordic Investment Bank
Leading Advisor for Growth Companies
Jan Lundström
Client Manager
Founded 1999 Corporate Broking 130+ Jan holds a Master of Science specializing in Marketing at the Stockholm School of Economics. For an
extended number of years he has worked as an investment manager with fixed income and equities at
Under supervision of the Swedish FSA 130+ public corporates as clients
Handelsbanken, Sundsvallsbanken, Förenade Liv Bliwa, Merchant and Aragon, done management in different
positions and served as a chairman and a board member on several public and non-public companies.
Ownership Partner owned Corporate Finance 150+ At Redeye, Jan works with corporate advisory to Life Science companies
150+ transactions executed over the last five years Jonas Lundmark
Client Manager
Employees 65+ Key Specialties Tech & Life Science Jonas holds a Master of Science in Computer Science and Bachelor in Business Administration with a
focus on finance at Lund University. He has over 20 years of experience in the financial market, mainly
Analysts: 20
as an equity analyst and an investment manager. At Redeye, Jonas works with corporate advisory to
Corporate Advisory: 20 Life Science companies.
Redeye.se 140,000+ Focused themes 10+
Attracting 140,000+ unique visitors monthly Includes 5G, AI, AR, Autotech, Cybersecurity, Disease of Niklas Blumenthal
the Brain, Envirotech, Fight Cancer, Digital Entertainment Client Manager
and SaaS
Niklas has studied business administration at Uppsala University and has over 20 years of experience in
the financial market, mainly with equity trading and as client manager for small and medium-sized listed
Redeye Corporate Advisory companies. At Redeye, Niklas works with corporate advisory to both Life Science and Tech companies.
Leading Advisor for Growth Companies
Thomas Nyberg
Corporate Broking Corporate Finance Client Manager
• In-depth research coverage – sector expertise • The go-to adviser for growth companies Thomas holds a Master of Science specializing in Industrial Marketing and International Business from
Stockholm School of Economics. He has over 20 years of experience in leading and developing small and
• Investor events & activities • One of the most active advisors within the segment medium-sized companies. At Redeye, Thomas works with corporate advisory to Life Science companies.
• Create brand awareness, credibility and manage • Leading adviser within private and public transactions
expectations
• Highly skilled team with vast experience from private and
• Stratetgic advise regarding how to create the optimal public transactions
shareholder structure and build a strong and
well-positioned financial brand • Over 150+ executed transactions including IPO:s,
Certified Adviser ECM
• Requirement for companies listed on Nasdaq First North • The most relevant investor network for growth companies
incl. Premier
• Matching companies with the right investors
• Ensures compliance with Nasdaq Rule Book
• Broad network of investors including institutional investors,
• CA-breakfast seminars and newsletters to ensure client family offices and retail investors
companies are up-to-date with the latest information and
hot topics
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
4 5THE REDEYE LIFE SIENCE TEAM THE REDEYE LIFE SIENCE TEAM
Håkan Östling Ludvig Svensson
Head of Research & Sales Analyst
Håkan holds a Master of Science in Economics and Financial Economics at the Stockholm School of Ludvig is an equity analyst in the life science team at Redeye and covers mostly biotech stocks. Ludvig holds
Economics. He has previously worked with equity research, corporate finance and management at a Bachelor of Economics from Uppsala University and has a background as an investor in Life Science
Goldman Sachs, Danske Bank and Alfred Berg. At Redeye, Håkan works with management in both analysis companies.
and other corporate governance.
Anders Hedlund Mats Hyttinge
Analyst Analyst
Anders holds a Master of Science with a focus on finance at Uppsala University. Previously, he worked as a Mats is an equity analyst in the technology & life science team at Redeye. He has an MBA and Bachelor degree
controller in the healthcare sector and has also extensive experience as an investor in the life science field. in Finance from USE in Monaco.
At Redeye, Anders is an equity analyst with special focus on medtech companies (primary focus:
Orthopaedics) and biotech companies (primary focus: The Central Nervous System).
Filip Einarsson Niklas Elmhammer
Analyst Analyst
Filip holds a Bachelor in Business and Economics from Lund University. Previously, he worked as an analyst at Niklas holds a Msc in Economics and Business Administration from the Stockholm School of Economics. He
Biostock and has experience as an investor. He is an equity analyst in the life science team at Redeye covering has more than 20 years of experience in equity research and portfolio management. He is part of the life sci-
mostly medtech companies. ence team and covers mostly Biotech companies.
Fredrik Thor Oscar Bergman
Analyst Analyst
Fredrik holds a Master in Economics and Statistics from Uppsala University and has experience as a business Oscar holds a Master’s degree in Operations Management and Control at Stockholm University. He is an
analyst and investor. He is an equity analyst in the life science team and focuses primarily on biotech- and equity analyst in the life science team at Redeye with a focus on medtech companies and is an investor in
research-oriented companies. the same field.
Gergana Almquist PhD
Analyst
Gergana is an equity analyst in the life science team at Redeye. Previously, she has an experience as an
investment analyst at Aberdeen Asset Management, Copenhagen. She has a PhD in innovation in medicines
development from Copenhagen Business School and a masters in international business from Universität
zu Köln.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
6 7LIFE SCIENCE SELECTED TRANSACTIONS
RECENT
SEPTEMBER 2020 SEPTEMBER 2020 SEPTEMBER 2020 JUNE 2020
Rights Issue Rights Issue Private Placement Private Placement
SEK 50m SEK 56m SEK 80m SEK 21m
Life Science Selected Transactions
MAY 2020 APRIL 2020 FEBRUARY 2020 FEBRUARY 2020 FEBRUARY 2020
Rights Issue Rights Issue + Directed Issue Rights Issue Rights Issue Rights Issue + Directed Issue
SEK 47m SEK 140m SEK 46m SEK 61m SEK 50m
2017–2019
NOVEMBER 2019 OCTOBER 2019 MAY 2019 APRIL 2019 MARCH 2019
Rights Issue + Directed Issue Rights Issue Placing of Secondary Shares Rights Issue Rights Issue
SEK 54m SEK 43m SEK 45m SEK 98m SEK 37m
FEBRUARY 2019 DECEMBER 2018 JUNE 2018 MAY 2018 MAY 2018
Rights Issue IPO IPO Directed Issue Directed Issue
SEK 26m Co-Lead Manager Co-Lead Manager SEK 10m Joint Lead Manager
SEK 550m SEK 747m SEK 110m
APRIL 2018 MARCH 2018 DECEMBER 2017 OCTOBER 2017 SEPTEMBER 2017
Rights Issue Rights Issue Rights Issue Rights Issue IPO
SEK 52m SEK 38m SEK 42m SEK 49m SEK 132m
JULY 2017 JUNE 2017 MARCH 2017 MARCH 2017 FEBRUARY 2017
IPO Rights Issue Rights Issue IPO Private Placement
SEK 76m SEK 64m SEK 24m SEK 54m SEK 65m
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
8 9Covered Companies A-X
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
10 112cureX 2CUREX
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/2curex November 16 2020
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description
Last price
Impact Timeframe A spin-off from Carlsberg Research Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, 2cureX Our Bull Case factors in an eventual entry into ovarian cancer, though not until
15.0
Major Long was founded in 2006 and currently employs 15 people. The company has 2023 and risk-adjusted by some 50 percent for now.
Moderate Mid developed IndiTreat, a test that identifies the most effective and individualized
Minor Short drug therapy for a cancer patient, primarily for colorectal cancer. Analysis of Further upside ahead
3 3 1 Base tumour cells and their response to various drug therapies provides insight into
Bear Bull Our fundamental analysis of 2cureX shows a fair value of SEK 25 in our Base
People Business Financials 11.0 25.0 35.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics which drugs to use for each specific patient before this is applied clinically as Case. We see catalysts ahead from completed patient recruitment, updates on
their treatment. initial launch and - mainly - clinical trial data. These should help close the
Snapshot Financials The company is currently conducting multicentre clinical trials in colorectal, remaining valuation gap over the next six months.
ovarian, and pancreatic cancer with leading cancer hospitals. Given the focus
2cureX 2018 2019
on colorectal cancer, we expect this indication to be the main target for the Catalyst types
OMXS30 company.
Revenue, MSEK 0 0 Clinical trial study completion with final study report next year
20 1800
Growth 0.0% Investment case Clinical trial study completion with final study report next year
15 1600
EBITDA -8 -8 • Geographical expansion Initial commercial launch in selected markets with eventual ramp-up next year
10 1400 • Additional indications
EBITDA margin Neg Neg Initial commercial launch in selected markets with eventual ramp-up next year
5 1200 • Partnerships with oncology companies
EBIT -8 -9
Volume Pre-treatment therapy analysis
EBIT margin Neg Neg
2cureX’s IndiTreat test offers an effective method of determining which drugs
1M
Pre-tax earnings -8 -9 offer the most suitable drug therapies for different patients with stage IV
0
colorectal cancer. This could improve the likelihood of successful treatment for
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Net earnings -8 -8
patients while saving time and money. Though health economics studies of the
Net margin Neg Neg
product are lacking, potential positive results from its current clinical trial
Marketplace First North Stockholm Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00 should support the planned commercialization.
CEO Ole Thastrup EPS adj. 0.00 -0.53
Chairman Povl-André Bendz Moreover, the company’s recent recruitment of Henrik Harling as Chief Medical
P/E adj. 0.0 0.0
Officer is notable in view of his background from the Danish Colorectal Cancer
EV/S 0.0 -245.1
Share information Group and experience in clinical treatment guidelines in Denmark.
EV/EBITDA 0.0 0.1
Share price (SEK) 15.0
New geographies in prospect
Number of shares (M) 14.9 2cureX intends to launch in its selected markets (Denmark, Sweden and
Market cap (MSEK) 222 Owner Equity Votes Germany) later of this year. Considering its so far limited clinical validation in
Net debt (MSEK) -27 OT311 ApS 30.4% 30.4% small population groups and current lack of capacity for wider reach, we
Clearstream Banking S.A. W8imy 12.6% 12.6% anticipate low revenues until traction is achieved and geographical expansion
Analyst can be initiated.
LISCO Beteiligungs- und Beratungsgesellschaft
10.6% 10.6%
mbH
Avanza Pension 9.1% 9.1% If the clinical trial turns out successfully (in line with or better than the good
Oscar Bergman
oscar.bergman@redeye.se Grith Hagel 5.0% 5.0% interim data), we anticipate greater interest in IndiTreat. This argues for a
Timm Jessen 4.7% 4.7% geographical expansion, firstly into other European markets and later on (in
2023) into the US.
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.2% 3.2%
Conflict of interests
Simon Alexander Hartikainen 1.5% 1.5% Bolstered by further indications
Oscar Bergman owns shares in 2cureX: No
Thomas Rundgren 0.9% 0.9% Considering the company’s focus on and progress in colorectal cancer, we limit
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
Göran Ofsén 0.9% 0.9% our Base Case sales forecast to this indication. However, 2cureX is also aiming
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
for pancreatic and ovarian cancer, with the latter in the clinical validation phase.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
12 13Abliva ABLI
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/neurovive- November 24 2020
pharmaceutical
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description Risks
Last price
Impact Timeframe Abliva develops potential treatments for primary mitochondrial diseases and is Development risk
0.8
Major Long creating a portfolio of compounds with orphan drug potential. It has no Developing drugs in the primary mitochondrial diseases space is risky and the
Moderate Mid revenues yet, and it has one compound, which successfully passed the safety historical likelihood of reaching approval is low. Abliva is highly dependent on
Minor Short and tolerability phase I and is currently being prepared for efficacy studies. A its only asset in clinical development, KL1333. Significant clinical development
3 2 1 Base second compound is currently in preparation for phase I in the clinic. risk remains.
Bear Bull
People Business Financials 0.3 1.4 6.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics Abliva's project portfolio is rather thin as of now, with only one project in clinical
Investment case studies and one being prepared to start phase I.
Snapshot Financials • Competent team and good ability to execute on the focused strategy. Further financing
• Funds secured for the clinical development of its projects via Hadean The company recently raised capital and has also secured long-term financing
Abliva 2018 2019 Ventures. of its projects via the new investor Hadean Ventures, a Europan life science
OMXS30
• Historically low LOA (likelihood of approval) of compounds in the CNS/ investment fund. We believe that the financial risk to the company has been
Revenue, MSEK 0 0
1.2 mitochondrial diseases space. Abliva is still highly dependent on its only thereby significantly reduced.
Growth -81.5% >100% clinical asset KL1333.
1
EBITDA -69 -79
• Current share price trading at a significant discount to our base case of Catalyst types
0.8 SEK 1.4 per share.
EBITDA margin Neg Neg Start Clinical studies NV534 in H2 2021
0.6 Clinical progress The start of clinical studies for Abliva's second asset will have a positive
EBIT -73 -77
Abliva has world-class science and a very competent core team in the impact on the stock price.
Volume EBIT margin Neg Neg mitochondrial medicine field, as well as a large network of collaborators and
Start pivotal study KL1333
200M
partners. We are optimistic about its ability to execute on the strategy to focus
Pre-tax earnings -73 -77 Pivotal study (combined phase II/III study) starts in H2 2021.
0 on compounds with orphan drug potential in the primary mitochondrial
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Net earnings -73 -77
disorders space.
Net margin Neg Neg
Since 2017 Abliva has strengthened its project portfolio in primary
Marketplace NASDAQ Stockholm Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00 mitochondrial diseases, notably through the in-licensing of the clinical asset
CEO Erik Kinnman EPS adj. -0.80 -0.41 KL-1333. A phase Ia/b study is currently well underway and the first patient has
Chairman David Laskow-Pooley been dosed to test safety and tolerability. In addition, the internally developed
P/E adj. -1.9 -3.3
drug candidate NV354 is making good progress towards the clinical stage,
EV/S 22,519.2 1,441.5
Share information which is scheduled to start in 2021. The pivotal phase II/III study with KL1333
EV/EBITDA -1.6 -2.4 is scheduled to start in H2 2021.
Share price (SEK) 0.8
Number of shares (M) 296.3 The stock currently (October 2020) trades at SEK 0.93 per share, at a discount
Market cap (MSEK) 249 Owner Equity Votes from our base case of 1.4.
Net debt (MSEK) -67 Hadean Ventures 9.0% 9.0% Financial position
Avanza Pension 8.8% 8.8% Recently (Q2 2020), Abliva raised SEK 87m through two rights issues: SEK 67m
Analyst
John Fällström 3.4% 3.4% via a preferential rights issue and SEK 20m through a directed share issue to
Hadean Ventures.
Rothesay Ltd 2.0% 2.0%
Gergana Almquist
Danske Bank International S.A. 2.0% 2.0% Out-licensing upside
gergana.almquist@redeye.se
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 1.7% 1.7% Possible out-licensing of the non-core assets NeuroSTAT and NV556 could
provide significant upside to our base case. We do not include these
Euroclear Bank S.A/N.V 1.6% 1.6%
Conflict of interests opportunities in our current valuation as interest from potential partners is
Handelsbanken Liv Försäkring AB 1.4% 1.4%
Gergana Almquist owns shares in Abliva: No difficult to assess due to limited clinical data.
Maas BioLab LLC 1.3% 1.3%
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
Gunvald Berger 1.2% 1.2%
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
14 15Acarix ACARIX
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/acarix November 24 2020
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description
Last price
Impact Timeframe Acarix was established in 2009 as a spin-out from Coloplast A/S and Longer-term potential intact
1.4
Major Long is a company that develops and markets cardiology diagnostic products. The When Acarix went public in late 2016, investors had very high expectations
Moderate Mid company was listed on Nasdaq First North Premier in late 2016. about a near-term commercial breakthrough for the CADScor system. These
Minor Short have been reflected in the share’s continuing decline since the IPO. If Acarix
Acarix provides the CADScor system, a cost-efficient, non-invasive and non-
2 3 1 Base
starts delivering growth with increasing profitability, we expect investors’
Bear Bull radiation testing method for ruling out stable Coronary Artery Disease (CAD)
People Business Financials 0.1 1.0 4.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics perception of the company to shift.
at the very first stage of the diagnostic pathway. The system is built around an
acoustic sensor and proprietary algorithm, giving it the competitive advantage Commercializing a medical device takes time. While Acarix is still many years
Snapshot Financials of providing results in approximately 10 minutes. Acarix holds patents for the from profitability, we view the CADScor system as an advancement due to its
algorithm technology in major EU markets, the US and China until 2026 and ease of use, cost savings potential and high diagnostic accuracy. If Acarix
later. succeeds in its ambition of establishing the CADScor system as a standard
Acarix Redeye Estimates
OMXS30 device for ruling out stable CAD, the share offers vast upside potential.
1.75 2018 2019 2020E Investment case
1.5
1.25
Revenue, MSEK 1 2 3
• Disruptive CAD diagnostic technology Catalyst types
Growth 90.0% 49.9% • Substantial market opportunity
1 Order from high-volume hospitals
0.75 • Longer-term potential intact Breakthrough orders from high-volume hospitals would give the market
EBITDA -40 -46 -53
0.5 confidence in Acarix's further sales potential.
EBITDA margin Neg Neg Neg Disruptive CAD diagnostic technology
Volume Based on a proprietary algorithm, the CADScor system uses sound from the Dan-NICAD II results
EBIT -43 -46 -53
heart to assess the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients presenting As Acarix gathers more clinical data, Dan-NICAD II should improve the CADScor
50M
EBIT margin Neg Neg Neg at their local doctor with stable chest pain. Today approximately 10% of those system sensitivity even further. Moreover, it will potentially allow the use of the
0
patients will be diagnosed with CAD, meaning that the larger part of the CADScor system in patients below the age of 40, increasing the market
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Pre-tax earnings -42 -46 -53
patients should not be part of the cardiology caseload. potential further.
Net earnings -42 -46 -53
With >97% NPV (negative predictive value), the CADScor system can success- G-Ba Reimbursement
Marketplace First North Stockholm Net margin Neg Neg Neg
fully rule out CAD in up to 50% of patients at the very first stage of the Reimbursement in Germany would act as an important catalyst, as it would
CEO Per Persson diagnostic pathway. This compared to the more commonly used treadmill
Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 greatly ease the sales process in a huge market for Acarix.
Chairman Werner Braun stress test, which sends too many healthy patients for further invasive testing
EPS adj. -1.83 -0.90 -1.02
due to poor sensitivity.
Share information P/E adj. 0.0 0.0 -0.7
EV/S -60.2 -28.3 13.7 We see the CADScor system adding advantages in CAD diagnostics, with a
Share price (SEK) 1.4
compelling value proposition for patients, providers and payers.
Number of shares (M) 141.0 EV/EBITDA 1.5 1.2 -0.7
Substantial market opportunity
Market cap (MSEK) 199 Last updated: 2020-11-11
With full reimbursement increasingly in place, starting in Germany from H1
Net debt (MSEK) 4 2021 according to our forecasts, we expect Acarix to incrementally ramp up
Owner Equity Votes sales and deliver 3-year CAGR of over 100% (2020-23). The company’s razor/
Analyst
razorblade model and high operating leverage give significant growth potential.
Seed Capital 9.2% 9.2%
While near-term revenue is driven by the number of CADScor systems sold, the
Xinchang Puhua-Jingxin-Guzhou Heal 5.1% 5.1%
Filip Einarsson bulk of long-term revenue will be generated from disposable high-margin (90%)
filip.einarsson@redeye.se Seventure Partners SA 4.3% 4.3% patches.
Sunstone Capital 3.4% 3.4%
We argue that the CADScor system is poised to gain market share from the
Aalborg Universitet 2.2% 2.2%
more resource demanding treadmill stress test. With limited competition from
Conflict of interests
Avanza Pension 2.0% 2.0% other new technologies, we expect the system to gain ground and ultimately
Filip Einarsson owns shares in Acarix: No
Puhua Jingxin Guzhou Health 1.9% 1.9% capture 5% and 3% of the total addressable market in Europe and US,
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
Coloplast A/S 1.2% 1.2% respectively – representing a USD +850 million opportunity according to our
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
estimates.
Lars Holmqvist 0.7% 0.7%
Nordnets Pensionsförsäkring 0.4% 0.4%
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
16 17Alligator Bioscience ATORX
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/alligator- November 17 2020
bioscience
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description Catalyst types
Last price
Impact Timeframe Alligator Bioscience är ett forskningsbaserat bioteknikbolag som använder en
8.2 Fas 2-kombinationsstudie inleds med mitazalimab
Major Long patenterad teknologi för att utveckla biologiska läkemedelskandidater inom Vi förväntar oss att Alligator på egen hand driver mitazalimab och påbörjar en
Moderate Mid inflammation och cancer. Bolaget är verksamt i den tidigare delen av kombinationsstudie H1 2021
Minor Short läkemedelsutvecklingskedjan. Bolaget har en global teknologiplattform och
3 2 1 Base är aktivt inom ett snabbt växande segment på läkemedelsmarknaden –
Bear Bull
People Business Financials 9.0 14.5 30.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics proteinläkemedel.
Snapshot Financials
Alligator Bioscience 18/19 19/20
OMXS30
12
Revenue, MSEK 27 4
1800
10 Growth -52.6% -83.8%
1600
8 EBITDA -147 -209
1400
6
EBITDA margin Neg Neg
4 1200
EBIT -153 -215
Volume EBIT margin Neg Neg
2M
Pre-tax earnings -150 -210
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Net earnings -150 -210
Net margin Neg Neg
Marketplace NASDAQ Stockholm Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00
CEO Per Norlén EPS adj. -2.10 -2.94
Chairman Peter Benson P/E adj. -10.5 -3.6
EV/S 44.0 127.8
Share information
EV/EBITDA -8.1 -2.7
Share price (SEK) 8.2
Number of shares (M) 71.4
Market cap (MSEK) 582 Owner Equity Votes
Net debt (MSEK) -164 Banque Internationale A Lux 15.1% 15.1%
Jonas Sjögren och bolag 9.0% 9.0%
Analyst
Sunstone Capital 8.1% 8.1%
Lars Spånberg 4.5% 4.5%
Niklas Elmhammer
Banque Internationale Luxembourg SA 4.0% 4.0%
niklas.elmhammer@redeye.se
Goldman Sachs & Co. 3.8% 3.8%
Johnson & Johnson Innovation LLC 3.8% 3.8%
Conflict of interests
Avanza Pension 3.6% 3.6%
Niklas Elmhammer owns shares in Alligator Bioscience: No
Fjärde AP-fonden 3.2% 3.2%
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
Öhman Fonder 2.2% 2.2%
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
18 19AnnexinPharmaceuticals
Annexin
Annexin Pharmaceutic...
Pharmaceutic... ANNX
ANNX
Company
Company page
page Publication
Publication date
date
https://www.redeye.se/company/annexin-
https://www.redeye.se/company/annexin- November
November 1717 2020
2020
pharmaceuticals
pharmaceuticals
RedeyeRating
Redeye Rating
COMPANY
COMPANY QUALITY
QUALITY FAIR
FAIR VALUE
VALUE RANGE
RANGE CATALYST
CATALYST POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
Company description Catalyst types
Last
Last price
price
Impact
Impact Timeframe
Timeframe
1.8
1.8 Annexin Pharmaceuticals är ett världsledande biotechbolag inom Annexin A5- Fas I-start med ANXV
Major
Major Long
Long området. Det Stockholmsbaserade bolaget grundades 2014 av doktor Anna Vi inväntar bland annat bedömning från de Nederländska myndigheterna och
Moderate
Moderate Mid
Mid Frostegård och professor Johan Frostegård, vilka redan 2005 lade grunden för resultatet av reningsprocessen med ANXV
Minor
Minor Short
Short den terapeutiska forskningen inom Annexin A5-området. Annexin
33 22 11 Base
Base Pharmaceuticals huvudprojekt, ANXV, är ett rekombinant humant Annexin A5.
Bear
Bear Bull
Bull
People Business
People Business Financials
Financials 0.0
0.0 1.9
1.9 16.0
16.0 Turn
Turn page
page forfor catalyst
catalyst specifics
specifics ANXV har potential att bli ett så kallat first-in-class-läkemedel då den har visat
på unika egenskaper vid behandling av ett flertal kardiovaskulära sjukdomar.
Snapshot
Snapshot Financials
Financials Bolaget har en flexibel organisation där man arbetar i nära samarbete med ett
brett nätverk av externa konsulter med lång erfarenhet. Annexin
Annexin
Annexin Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals aktie är noterad på OMX Nasdaq First North sedan april 2017.
2018
2018 2019
2019
OMXS30
OMXS30
2 2
1800
1800
Revenue,
Revenue, MSEK
MSEK 00 00 Investment case
1.75
1.75 Growth
Growth 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
1.5
1.5 1600
1600 Under review
1.25
1.25 EBITDA
EBITDA -29-29 -28-28 Vi förväntar oss att i närtid ta del av information och klargöranden kopplat till
1400
1400
1 1
den kliniska utvecklingsplanen för ANXV, t.ex. kring myndighetsbedömning,
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
margin Neg
Neg Neg
Neg
0.75
0.75 1200
1200 resultatet av reningen av läkemedelskandidaten och finansering. När vi har
EBIT
EBIT -29-29 -28-28 tillräcklig klarhet i dessa saker återkommer vi med en mer genomgripande
Volume
Volume EBIT
EBIT margin
margin Neg
Neg Neg
Neg genomgång av caset och dess huvudprojekt ANXV.
20M
20M
10M
10M Pre-tax
Pre-tax earnings
earnings -29-29 -28-28
0 0
JanJan Mar
Mar May
May JulJul Sep
Sep Nov
Nov
Net
Net earnings
earnings -29-29 -28-28
Net
Net margin
margin Neg
Neg Neg
Neg
Marketplace
Marketplace First
First North
North Stockholm
Stockholm Dividend/Share
Dividend/Share 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00
CEO
CEO Anders
Anders Haegerstrand
Haegerstrand EPS
EPS adj.
adj. -1.62
-1.62 -0.40
-0.40
Chairman
Chairman Carl-Fredrik
Carl-Fredrik Lindner
Lindner P/E
P/E adj.
adj. 0.00.0 0.00.0
EV/S
EV/S -7,434.5
-7,434.5 -1,009.0
-1,009.0
Share
Share information
information
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA 1.01.0 0.10.1
Share
Share price
price (SEK)
(SEK) 1.81.8
Number
Number ofof shares
shares (M)
(M) 70.7
70.7
Market
Market cap
cap (MSEK)
(MSEK) 124
124 Owner
Owner Equity
Equity Votes
Votes
Net
Net debt
debt (MSEK)
(MSEK) -23-23 Mikael
Mikael Lönn
Lönn 22.3%
22.3% 22.3%
22.3%
Arne
Arne Andersson
Andersson 10.1%
10.1% 10.1%
10.1%
Analyst
Analyst
SEB
SEB Life
Life International
International 7.5%
7.5% 7.5%
7.5%
Lars
Lars Hallén
Hallén 4.9%
4.9% 4.9%
4.9%
Anders
Anders Hedlund
Hedlund
UBS
UBS Switzerland
Switzerland AGAG 4.8%
4.8% 4.8%
4.8%
anders.hedlund@redeye.se
anders.hedlund@redeye.se
Avanza
Avanza Pension
Pension 3.9%
3.9% 3.9%
3.9%
Jane
Jane Hallén
Hallén 3.7%
3.7% 3.7%
3.7%
Conflict
Conflict ofof interests
interests Nordnet
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring
Pensionsförsäkring 2.7%
2.7% 2.7%
2.7%
Anders
Anders Hedlund
Hedlund owns
owns shares
shares in in Annexin
Annexin Pharmaceuticals:
Pharmaceuticals: NoNo
Johan
Johan & Anna
& Anna Frostegård
Frostegård 2.7%
2.7% 2.7%
2.7%
Redeye
Redeye performs/have
performs/have performed
performed services
services forfor
thethe Company
Company and
and receives/have
receives/have
SEB
SEB Life
Life International
International 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0%
received
received compensation
compensation from
from the
the Company
Company in in connection
connection with
with this.
this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
20 21AroCell AROC
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/arocell November 16 2020
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description
Last price
Impact Timeframe AroCell is an Uppsala-based diagnostics company that focuses on the Establishing the biomarker
3.2
Major Long research, development and sales of an in vitro diagnostics product for cancer, We argue that AroCell is now better positioned than before to make TK1
Moderate Mid called TK 210 ELISA, and the licensing of the technology behind this. We concentration an established analysis for therapy response. The potential to
Minor Short believe the greatest potential for the product and technology lies in breast and capitalize on the Roche deal and show the advantages of TK1 concentration
3 2 2 Base prostate cancer. AroCell was initially founded under the name Xi Bao Research with additional studies and increased marketing efforts is significant. However,
Bear Bull
People Business Financials 2.0 5.0 10.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics AB in 2003 but changed this in 2006. The company was listed on the Spotlight the technology will require further testing and evaluation even after Roche’s
Stock Market in 2011 and relisted on Nasdaq First North in 2015. potential implementation in 2022 to establish it clinically.
Snapshot Financials Its CE-approved TK 210 ELISA measures the concentration of a protein called
thymidine kinase 1 in blood samples, which can determine the efficiency of
Catalyst types
AroCell Redeye Estimates cancer therapy. It provides this information quickly and with high sensitivity.
OMXS30
TK 210 ELISA sales growth
4
1800
2018 2019E Investment case Increased sales of TK 210 ELISA in research and development
3 Revenue, MSEK 0 0
1600
• We see two catalysts for AroCell in the mid- to long-term; continued
2 Growth >100% clinical validation and FDA approval in 2021. FDA approval
1400 FDA approval of TK 210 ELISA for the US market
1 • We believe a management change, a weak ownership structure, lacking
EBITDA 0 -21
0 1200 sales and a capital need, to have put weight on the stock in 2019 and
EBITDA margin 0.0% Neg Roche Diagnostics
parts of 2020. Now, we see that management has proven itself,
Volume ownership has somewhat strengthened and capital has been raised. Further news from the Roche deal and its clinical validation of TK1
EBIT 0 -21
• The company has an exciting partnership with Roche, related to AroCell's concentration
25M
EBIT margin 0.0% Neg
0
TK1 technology. This could heavily impact its market potential.
Pre-tax earnings 0 -21 Clinical validation
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
TK1 concentration Widening its clinical validation to other indications
Net earnings 0 -21
AroCell’s unique technology enables measurement of the protein thymidine
Marketplace First North Stockholm Net margin 0.0% Neg kinase 1 (TK1) concentration in blood. As the protein increases as cells repair
CEO Michael Brobjer and divide, analysing it can provide insights in cancer therapy response.
Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00
Chairman Claes Post There are several commercially available activity-based methods of measuring
EPS adj. 0.00 -0.27
TK1. However, measuring the concentration of the protein in the blood provides
Share information P/E adj. 0.0 -11.3
better results more efficiently than measuring the activity. Measuring the TK1
Share price (SEK) 3.2 EV/S 0.0 639.0 concentration can give important insights to therapy response of cancer
Number of shares (M) 75.7 EV/EBITDA 0.0 -12.3 treatments. The low concentration of TK1 in blood, its rapid half-life, enzyme
structure, and aggregation of other molecules makes concentration
Market cap (MSEK) 242 Last updated: 2020-11-16
determination a challenge. AroCell’s unique technology has overcome this
Net debt (MSEK) 40
and makes it the only company with a CE marked product to measure the
Owner Equity Votes concentration of TK1. This gives AroCell a unique position to sell and license
Analyst
Avanza Pension 10.1% 10.1% out a technology of a superior analysis method.
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 4.7% 4.7% Roche Diagnostics
Oscar Bergman
oscar.bergman@redeye.se Olle Stenfors 4.2% 4.2% The company’s non-exclusive licensing deal with Roche, which involves a fully
Jon Eiken 3.4% 3.4% financed clinical validation of TK1 concentration analysis, could have a decisive
impact on AroCell. A positive outcome would primarily represent a stamp of
Bernhard Tribukait 3.3% 3.3%
Conflict of interests approval, opening the way to establishing the biomarker. In addition, royalties
Gunvald Berger 2.5% 2.5%
Oscar Bergman owns shares in AroCell: No from the technology would help AroCell fund sales of the product.
Mikael Jacobsson 1.8% 1.8%
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
TK 210 ELISA
received compensation from the Company in connection with this. Lena Lindqvist Design AB 1.7% 1.7%
We estimate the US and EU-5 markets for therapy response analysis in breast
Staffan Eriksson 1.1% 1.1% and prostate cancer at 4.5 and 2.1 million tests, respectively. We base these
BNP Paribas Sec Services Jersey 0.8% 0.8% figures on data from Datamonitor.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
22 23Asarina Pharma ASAP
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/asarina- November 17 2020
pharma
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description Catalyst types
Last price
Impact Timeframe Asarina Pharma is a clinical-stage, Scandinavian biotech company specialising Phase IIa study initiation in Tourette's Syndrome
6.9
Major Long in allopregnanolone-related disorders and neurological conditions. The We expect phase IIa initiation in Tourette's in
Moderate Mid company was founded in 2006 by Professor Torbjörn Bäckström and his Q2'21.
Minor Short research based on how neurosteroids act in the brain. Asarina Pharma's shares Phase IIa results in menstrual migraine
4 3 1 Base are listed on Nasdaq First North in 2018.
Bear Bull We expect top-line results to be presented in Q2'21
People Business Financials 3.0 8.0 20.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics
Investment case
Snapshot Financials • In the Process to Reset and Turn Around
• Funds for Readout Two Phase 2 Studies
Asarina Pharma 2018 2019 • News Flow Ahead
OMXS30
40
Revenue, MSEK 0 0 Partly under review
1800
30 Growth 0.0% 0.0%
In the Process to Reset and Turn Around
1600
20 EBITDA -52 -81 The inconclusive phase 2b results in PMDD (premenstrual dysphoric disorder)
1400 in Q2’20 was a huge disappointment for the company. The stock took a
10
EBITDA margin Neg Neg
substantial hit, dropping more than 75% intra-day. It has cemented on SEK 6-8
0 1200
EBIT -52 -81 per share levels, representing an EV of some SEK 60 million.
Volume EBIT margin Neg Neg The huge drop was expected, in our view, and is in the nature of biotech cases.
10M
The PMDD indication was by far the most advanced. Without any near-term
Pre-tax earnings -52 -79 catalysts, we can also relate to the fact that the stock has cemented on those
0
Net earnings -44 -72 levels. However, given that Asarina might soon have two other projects in
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Net margin Neg Neg phase 2 development, an EV SEK 60 million reflects low expectations.
Marketplace First North Stockholm Funds for Readout Two Phase 2 Studies
Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00
The company secured, in Q4’19, the funds for the first in human studies with
CEO Peter Nordkild EPS adj. 0.00 -3.82
sepranolone in Tourette’s and Menstrual Migraine (MM). The company thus
Chairman Paul de Potocki P/E adj. 0.0 0.0 have funding for two phase 2a studies. We also emphasize that we favor the
EV/S -35,385.8 -32,376.3 Asarina Pharma ownership list, backed by several institutions, a necessity to
Share information
EV/EBITDA 2.7 1.6 turn around the case after the disappointing results in PMDD.
Share price (SEK) 6.9
News Flow Ahead
Number of shares (M) 18.7
Asarina Pharma pursues two indications with unmet medical needs; menstrual
Market cap (MSEK) 130 Owner Equity Votes
migraine and Tourettes. We expect phase 2a results in menstrual migraine in
Net debt (MSEK) -69 Kurma Biofund 17.1% 17.1%
Q2’21. As sepranolone gets nearer to initiate clinical development in Tourettes,
Östersjöstiftelsen 14.5% 14.5% we will start to look into that indication in greater detail (currently not included
Analyst
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.1% 9.1% in our valuation).
Idinvest Patrimoine 8.9% 8.9%
Anders Hedlund
Swedbank Robur Fonder 8.1% 8.1%
anders.hedlund@redeye.se
Rosetta 5.7% 5.7%
Catella Fonder 5.1% 5.1%
Conflict of interests
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 4.9% 4.9%
Anders Hedlund owns shares in Asarina Pharma: No
Handelsbanken Fonder 3.6% 3.6%
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
Sectoral Asset Management 3.2% 3.2%
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
24 25Ascelia Pharma ACE
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/ascelia- November 24 2020
pharma
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY FAIR VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description
Last price
Impact Timeframe Ascelia Pharma är ett Malmö-baserat läkemedelsbolag specialiserat på undersökning utan något kontrastmedel för att erhålla regulatoriskt
34.3
Major Long utveckling av särläkemedel inom onkologi. Bolaget grundades redan 2000 som godkännande.
Moderate Mid CMC Contrast och listades på Nasdaq Small Cap i mars 2019. Oförtjänt låg värdering
Minor Short Vi anser att dagens värdering av Ascelia implicerar en oförtjänt låg sannolikhet
Ascelia har två produktkandidater under klinisk utveckling. Bolagets ledande
4 4 2 Base för en lyckad fas III-studie och menar att aktiemarknaden inte uppmärksammar
Bear Bull kandidat Mangoral är ett kontrastmedel specifikt för levern som används vid
People Business Financials 10.0 53.0 70.0 Turn page for catalyst specifics magnetkameraundersökningar där dagens gadoliniumbaserade kontrastmedel
diskrepansen i riskprofil mot en vanlig fas III-studie inom onkologi. Vi anser att
starka fas II-data i kombination med den fördelaktiga fas III-designen talar för
är medicinskt olämpligt att administrera. Mangoral är nu i startgroparna för
en sannolikhet över branchsnittet (80% mot 56%) för Mangoral att nå marknad.
Snapshot Financials klinisk prövning i fas III.
Bolagets andra läkemedelskandidat, Oncoral, är en formulering i tablettform av
Ascelia Pharma cellgiftssubstansen irinotecan, som används för behandling av långt Catalyst types
2018 2019
OMXS30 framskriden magcancer. Bolaget fick tillgång till Oncoral genom förvärvet av
40 Revenue, MSEK 0 0 Oncoral Pharma under 2017, vilket gjordes med en köpeskilling om 58 MSEK.
35 Studieresultat fas III, Mangoral
Growth 0.0% 0.0% Oncoral har genomgått två fas-I studier med lovande resultat och är nu redo att
30
.
25 inleda fas II-studier.
EBITDA -24 -63
20
15 EBITDA margin Neg Neg Investment case Studiestart fas II, Oncoral
10
EBIT -24 -63 • Mangoral öppnar upp för ny marknad .
Volume • Riskredcuerat fas III-program
EBIT margin Neg Neg
• Oförtjänt låg värdering
500k
Pre-tax earnings -24 -66 Potentiellt licensavtal, Oncoral
0 Mangoral öppnar upp för ny marknad .
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Net earnings -24 -66
Mangoral är ett oralt kontrastmedel för MR-scanning som utvärderas för
Net margin Neg Neg upptäckt och lokalisering av levermetastaser hos patienter med kraftigt nedsatt
njurfunktion. Det finns idag inga tillgängliga kontrastmedel för dessa patienter Potentiellt godkännande, Mangoral
Marketplace NASDAQ Stockholm Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00
då de på grund av sin nedsatta njurfunktion riskerar att få Nefrogen Systemisk .
CEO Magnus Corfitzen EPS adj. 0.00 0.00
Fibros vid administrering av kontrastmedel baserade på tungmetallen
Chairman Peter Benson P/E adj. 0.0 0.0 gadolinium. Vi räknar med att en fas III-studie med Mangoral kan inledas under
Studieresultat fas II, Oncoral
EV/S -10,525.0 -46,050.0 slutet av 2019 med datautläsning sent 2020.
Share information .
EV/EBITDA 1.8 2.9
Share price (SEK) 34.3 Givet obefintlig konkurrens inom denna patientpopulation och bristen på
Number of shares (M) 28.7 alternativ diagnostik estimerar vi att Mangoral kommer att tas emot positivt
bland radiologer och nå en penetration om 50% av den adresserbara
Market cap (MSEK) 984 Owner Equity Votes
populationen i USA och 40% av den europeiska, innebärande en
Net debt (MSEK) -178 Sunstone Capital 15.6% 15.9%
toppförsäljningspotential om USD 180 miljoner.
CMC SPV of 3 April 2017 AB 10.2% 10.4%
Analyst Riskredcuerat fas III-program
Øresund-Healthcare Management A/S 7.0% 7.2% Mangoral är baserat på mangan, ett naturligt förekommande ämne i vår kost.
Handelsbanken Fonder 4.9% 5.0% Säkerhet och effekt har validerats i flertalet fas I- och II-studier med totalt 125
Ludvig Svensson
Fjärde AP-fonden 4.8% 4.9% individer inkluderade. En blindad oberoende granskare kunde med Mangoral
ludvig.svensson@redeye.se
detektera 33% fler förändringar i levern jämfört med MR utan kontrast.
HealthInvest Partners 4.2% 4.3%
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 4.2% 4.2% I registreringsgrundande studier utvärderas kontrastmedel normalt sätt mot
Conflict of interests andra kontrastmedel. Givet det stora medicinska behovet samt avsaknaden av
Societe Generale Nantes 3.6% 3.7%
Ludvig Svensson owns shares in Ascelia Pharma: No referensobjekt för patienter med nedsatt njurfunktion har FDA bestämt att
Eiffel Investment Group SAS 3.6% 3.7%
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have Mangoral endast behöver visa på en statistiskt säkerställd förbättring mot MR-
ÖstVäst Capital Management 3.3% 3.4%
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
26 27Bioinvent
Bioinvent
Bioinvent Internatio...
International
Internatio...
BINV
Company page Publication date
BINV
Company page Publication date
https://www.redeye.se/company/bioinvent-
https://www.redeye.se/company/bioinvent- November
November 17 2020
17 2020
international
international
Redeye
Redeye Rating
Rating
COMPANY
COMPANY QUALITY
QUALITY FAIRFAIR VALUE
VALUE RANGE
RANGE CATALYST
CATALYST POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
Company description Catalyst types
LastLast price
price
Impact
Impact Timeframe
Timeframe
1.61.6 BioInvent International AB is a clinical-stage company that discovers and Milestone payment from Pfizer
Major
Major Long
Long develops novel and first-in-class immuno-modulatory antibodies for cancer A milestone of about USD 3-5m (Redeye estimate) from the Pfizer
Moderate
Moderate MidMid therapies. Bioinvent has two ongoing programs in Phase l/ll clinical collaboration, triggered by antibody selection. Expected to happen in H2 2020.
Minor
Minor Short
Short development for the treatment of hematological cancer and solid tumors,
Topline results BI-1206
4 4 2 2 2 2 Base respectively. Three preclinical programs in solid tumors are expected to have
BearBear Base BullBull
Data from the ongoing phase I/II trial in NHL
People Business
People BusinessFinancials
Financials 1.71.7 3.03.0 3.73.7 Turn
Turn page
page for for catalyst
catalyst specifics
specifics entered clinical trials by the end of 2020.
Signs a license agreement
The company’s validated, proprietary F.I.R.S.T technology platform
Finds a partner to one of its projects targeting regulatory T-cells, presumably
Snapshot
Snapshot Financials
Financials simultaneously identifies both targets and the antibodies that bind to them,
BI-1808. Such an agreement could generate a considerable upfront as well as
generating many promising new drug candidates to fuel the company’s own
milestone payments
Bioinvent International clinical development pipeline or for additional licensing and partnering.
Bioinvent International 2018
2018 2019
2019
OMXS30
OMXS30 Bioinvent generates revenues from research collaborations and license
1.75
Revenue,
Revenue, MSEK
MSEK 39 39 94 94
1.75 1800 agreements with multiple top-tier pharmaceutical companies, as well as from
1800
Growth
Growth -14.4%
-14.4% >100%
>100% producing antibodies for third parties in the Company’s fully integrated
1.5 1.5
1600
1600
1.25 manufacturing unit.
1.25 EBITDA
EBITDA -120
-120 -126
-126
1400
1400
1
1 EBITDA
EBITDA margin
margin NegNeg NegNeg Investment case
0.75
0.75 1200
1200
EBIT
EBIT -123
-123 -138
-138 • Bioinvent has a promising early-stage pipeline, built upon a solid
Volume
Volume EBIT margin foundation of science and the understanding of cancer biology
EBIT margin NegNeg NegNeg
25M25M • External partners have validated the technology platforms
Pre-tax
Pre-tax earnings
earnings -123
-123 -139
-139 • The most valuable asset is BI-1206 in clinical Phase I/II development,
0 0
Jan Jan MarMar MayMay Jul Jul SepSep NovNov NetNet earnings
earnings -123
-123 -139
-139 with data expected in H2-2020
NetNet margin
margin NegNeg NegNeg • The financials support operations into 2023
Marketplace
Marketplace NASDAQ
NASDAQ Stockholm
Stockholm Dividend/Share We believe Bioinvent has a promising early-stage pipeline, built upon a solid
Dividend/Share 0.000.00 0.000.00
foundation of science and the understanding of cancer biology. External
CEOCEO Martin
Martin Welschof
Welschof EPSEPS
adj.adj. -0.35
-0.35 -0.28
-0.28
partners have validated the technology platforms (n-CoDeR and F.I.R.S.T.), and
Chairman
Chairman Leonard
Leonard Kruimer
Kruimer P/EP/E
adj.adj. -5.4-5.4 -4.4-4.4 its research has repeatedly been published in top-rated scientific journals. An
EV/S
EV/S 15.515.5 4.9 4.9 ambitious plan is underway of extending the clinical pipeline to five programs in
Share
Share information
information
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA -5.0-5.0 -3.6-3.6 2021, transforming Bioinvent into a clinical-stage immuno-oncology player with
Share
Share price
price (SEK)
(SEK) 1.6 1.6
a deep pipeline.
Number
Number of shares
of shares (M)(M) 955.0
955.0
The recently announced capital raise of some SEK 630m (including the follow-
Market
Market capcap (MSEK)
(MSEK) 1,555
1,555 Owner
Owner Equity
Equity Votes
Votes
on rightts issue) is potentially transformative, as it provides BioInvent with the
NetNet debt
debt (MSEK)
(MSEK) -660
-660 Adrianus
Adrianus VanVan Herk
Herk 14.9%
14.9% 14.9%
14.9% resources to match its ambitions. Moreover, the strong backing from existing
Saxo
Saxo Bank
Bank A/SA/S Client
Client Assets
Assets 13.8%
13.8% 13.8%
13.8% and new institutional shareholders is an important validation of the business
Analyst
Analyst
Omega
Omega Funds
Funds Management
Management Llc Llc 12.1%
12.1% 12.1%
12.1% case.
Cbldn-Ubs
Cbldn-Ubs Financial
Financial Services
Services Inc Inc 10.9%
10.9% 10.9%
10.9% Management has increased its effort in trying to secure partner agreements.
Niklas
Niklas Elmhammer
Elmhammer
HBM
HBM Partners
Partners AG AG 6.1%
6.1% 6.1%
6.1% We believe, Bioinvent has an attractive portfolio of projects, making the
niklas.elmhammer@redeye.se
niklas.elmhammer@redeye.se
Fjärde AP-fonden 5.9% 5.9% partnering track credible.
Fjärde AP-fonden 5.9% 5.9%
TheThe Bank
Bank of New
of New York
York Mellon
Mellon SA/NV
SA/NV 4.7%
4.7% 4.7%
4.7% The short-term risks in the stock are mostly related to unforeseen delays and
Conflict
Conflict of interests
of interests setbacks in clinical and preclinical development.
Compagnie
Compagnie Mérieux
Mérieux Alliance
Alliance 4.4%
4.4% 4.4%
4.4%
Niklas
Niklas Elmhammer
Elmhammer ownsowns shares
shares in Bioinvent
in Bioinvent International:
International: No No
Rhenman
Rhenman & Partners
& Partners Asset
Asset Management
Management 4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0%
Redeye
Redeye performs/have
performs/have performed
performed services
services for for
the the Company
Company andand receives/have
receives/have
Bfcm
Bfcm P/CP/C Bfcm
Bfcm Sweden
Sweden Retail
Retail Lt Lt 4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0%
received
received compensation
compensation fromfrom
the the Company
Company in connection
in connection withwith
this.this.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
28 29Biovica
BiovicaInternationa...
Biovica International
Internationa... BIOVIC B B
BIOVIC
Company pagepage
Company Publication datedate
Publication
https://www.redeye.se/company/biovica
https://www.redeye.se/company/biovica November 17 2020
November 17 2020
Redeye Rating
Redeye Rating
COMPANY QUALITY
COMPANY QUALITY FAIRFAIR
VALUE RANGE
VALUE RANGE CATALYST POTENTIAL
CATALYST POTENTIAL
Company description Catalyst types
Last Last
priceprice
Impact
Impact Timeframe
Timeframe
33.6
33.6 Biovica is a Swedish biotech founded in 2009 with a vision to improve Further clinical validation.
Major
Major LongLong monitoring and predicting the efficacy of cancer therapies. The initial focus is Currently, DiviTum is evaluated in breast cancer clinical trials involving some
Moderate
Moderate Mid Mid breast cancer, a disease responsible for over 600,000 deaths a year. Biovica 1,300 patients. Results from large trials could further strengthen clinical
Minor
Minor Short
Short works with leading cancer institutes, collaborative groups, and pharmaceutical evidence. The most important trial currently is the SWOG collaboration which
4 4 2 2 2 2 BaseBase companies on product development, with the aim of improving outcomes and will serve as documentation for the application for market approval in the US.
BearBear Bull Bull
People
PeopleBusiness
BusinessFinancials
Financials 17.5
17.5 36.0
36.0 46.0
46.0 TurnTurn
pagepage
for catalyst specifics
for catalyst specifics lowering costs.
Marketing approval US
We assume a 90 percent likelihood of 510(k) clearance.
Investment case
Snapshot
Snapshot Financials
Financials Commercial partnerships.
• New therapies for advanced breast cancer increase the need for fast and
For a successful launch of DiviTum for clinical use, Biovica needs to team up
reliable monitoring tools to guide treatment decisions.
Biovica International
Biovica International 18/19
18/19 19/20
19/20 20/21
20/21 with larger partners. As clinical evidence for the prognostic value of DiviTum
OMXS30
OMXS30 • A potential marketing approval in the US for blood-based cancer
continues to build and with the possibility of clearing important regulatory
Revenue, MSEK
Revenue, MSEK 3 3 3 3 2 2 diagnostic test DiviTum within the next 6-12 months is a major catalyst
30 30 1800
1800 hurdles in the coming twelve months, the likelihood for attracting strong
Growth
Growth 9.6%9.6% -44.0%
-44.0% for significant further upside to our valuation
partners increases
20 20 1600
1600 • Extensive clinical evidence in breast cancer trials with more than 1,800
EBITDA
EBITDA -16 -16 -19 -19 -26 -26 patients as well collaborations with leading US institutions provide
10 10 1400
1400
EBITDA margin
EBITDA margin NegNeg NegNeg NegNeg important validation for DiviTum, in our view.
0 0 1200
1200
EBITEBIT -18 -18 -22 -22 -30 -30 The changing landscape for cancer drugs increases the need for faster
Volume
Volume EBITEBIT
margin
margin NegNeg NegNeg NegNeg diagnostics to guide treatment decisions. Clinical evidence supports the view
1M 1M that Biovica’s minimally invasive DiviTum test is an especially relevant
Pre-tax earnings
Pre-tax earnings -18 -18 -22 -22 -30 -30 biomarker in metastatic breast cancer and is well positioned to benefit from
0 0
Jan Jan Mar Mar May May Jul Jul Sep Sep Nov Nov Net Net
earnings
earnings -18 -18 -22 -22 -30 -30 this trend.
Net Net
margin
margin NegNeg NegNeg NegNeg Biovica eyes to enter the US market for clinical use already next year. In the last
Marketplace
Marketplace FirstFirst
North Stockholm
North Stockholm twelve months, Biovica has reported significant progress towards meeting FDA
Dividend/Share
Dividend/Share 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00
requirements for technical and clinical validation. In 2019, Biovica agreed with
CEOCEO Anders Rylander
Anders Rylander EPSEPS
adj. adj. -1.02-1.02 -1.23-1.23 -1.29-1.29
the SWOG group, the largest cancer trial network within the US National Cancer
Chairman
Chairman LarsLars
Holmqvist
Holmqvist P/E P/E
adj. adj. -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -12.0-12.0 Institute, to access patient samples from a large breast cancer trial to perform
EV/SEV/S 43.943.9 59.759.7 195.6
195.6 the clinical validation. This has shortened the clinical development
Share information
Share information
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA -7.7 -7.7 -9.5 -9.5 -12.7-12.7 significantly. The company filed for a 510(k)-submission in Q3, 2020. This could
Share price
Share (SEK)
price (SEK) 33.733.7
open for a market clearance in the first half of 2021.
Number of shares
Number (M) (M) 28.274
of shares 28.274
In the short term, the Covid-19 pandemic has delayed FDA review timelines
Market cap cap
Market (MSEK)
(MSEK) 953 953 Owner
Owner Equity
Equity Votes
Votes
(current estimate about three months),
Net Net
debtdebt
(MSEK)
(MSEK) -39 -39 Anders Rylander
Anders Rylander 14.0%
14.0% 26.4%
26.4%
For clinical development Biovica has collaborated with some very renowned
Avanza Pension
Avanza Pension 5.6%5.6% 3.8%3.8%
Analyst
Analyst institutions in the field of oncology such as Dana-Farber, Johns Hopkins, SWOG
Gunnar Rylander
Gunnar Rylander 5.3%5.3% 8.0%8.0%
and the Mayo Clinic. We believe it provides a stamp of quality and working with
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 5.2%5.2% 3.5%3.5% leading US institutions increases the chances of gaining vital support from key
Niklas Elmhammer
Niklas Elmhammer
RbcRbc
Investor Services
Investor Bank
Services S.A S.A
Bank 5.2%5.2% 3.5%3.5% opinion leaders ahead of market launch. Also, Biovica has during the last two
niklas.elmhammer@redeye.se
niklas.elmhammer@redeye.se
Coeli
Coeli 5.0%5.0% 3.4%3.4% years expanded the management and board with experienced industry
competence with proven track record in developing, marketing and business
Lancelot Asset
Lancelot Management
Asset AB AB
Management 2.1%2.1% 1.4%1.4%
Conflict of interests
Conflict of interests development in cancer diagnostics.
Henrik Osvald
Henrik Osvald 2.0%2.0% 1.3%1.3%
Niklas Elmhammer
Niklas owns
Elmhammer shares
owns in Biovica
shares International:
in Biovica No No
International: Assuming a 90 percent likelihood of successful clinical validation and
Futur Pension
Futur Pension 1.8%1.8% 1.2%1.2%
Redeye performs/have
Redeye performed
performs/have services
performed for the
services for Company and and
the Company receives/have
receives/have subsequent marketing clearance from the FDA, we calculate a base case value
LYMLYM
Consulting AB AB
Consulting 1.8%1.8% 1.2%1.2%
received compensation
received fromfrom
compensation the Company in connection
the Company withwith
in connection this.this. of SEK 36 per share. We see further upside to SEK 46 per share if pivotal
clinical validation data is strong and DiviTum gets approved for clinical use on
the US market.
REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020 REDEYE LIFE SCIENCE DAY - 2020
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