"LEZIONI CINESI" UN ANNO DOPO. VINCITORI E VINTI DOPO UN ANNO DI PANDEMIA - POLITECNICO DI MILANO SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 4 MARZO 2021
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“LEZIONI CINESI” UN
ANNO DOPO. VINCITORI
E VINTI DOPO UN ANNO
DI PANDEMIA.
Francesco Grillo
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
UIBE (Pechino) SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
Sant’Anna University 4 MARZO 2021
You can see computer
THE PARADOX OF INNOVATION everywhere but in the
productivity statistics
(R. Solow, 1986)
CAPACITY TO STORE INFORMATION OF EXISTING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATES (G7,
DIGITAL AND ANALOG DEVICES (WORLD, EXABYTES) %)
3,00%
2,50%
2,41%
2,00%
1,84%
1,71%
1,50%
1,37%
1,00%
0,50% 0,57%
0,00%
1971-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2007 2007-2016
2
SOURCE: VISION ON OECD AND IDC DATA
In the last ten years of relative slow-
.. WHICH DOES NOT EXIST IN CHINA down, China has doubled its economy
(+102%) employing the same number
of individuals (757 million people).
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE (IN USD 2010)
15,00%
12,50%
10,00%
7,50%
5,00%
2,50%
0,00%
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
-2,50%
-5,00%
G7 Cina
SOURCE: “DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH IN THE 21st CENTURY” (2019)
ON WORLD BANK DATA 3
BEYOND THE GDP: LIVING LONGER AND ACTIVE AGING...
LIFE EXPECTANCY, YEARS
90
85
80 JAPAN USA
75
CHINA
70
RUSSIA
65
BRAZIL
60
55
INDIA
SOUTH
50
AFRICA
45
IN TERMS OF DISABILITIES ADJUSTED LIFE
EXPECTANCY (DALE) A CHILD BORN IN CHINA IN
40
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 WAS EXPECTED TO LIVE LONGER THAN ONE
BORN IN THE USA
Source: “Democracy and Growth in the 21st Century” (2019) ON OMS DATA 4
.. THE FIGHT TO POVERTY..
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING UNDER THE POVERTY LINE (2 USD PER DAY)
1904
Rest of the 319
world
Sub-Saharian
Africa 292
1052
Southern 600
Asia 218 883
172
423
412
China 692
331
244
81 55
1990 2011 2015
Fonte: “Democracy and Growth in the 21st Century” (2019) ON UNDP DATA 5
THE BATTLE FOR GLOBAL DIGITAL LEADERSHIP
FIRST TEN CORPORATIONS FOR MARKET CAPITALIZATION (LEFT) AND DISTRIBUTION OF UNICORN (START UP
WHOSE VALUE IS HIGHER THAN ONE BILLION USD, 2020) PER COUNTRY (RIGHT)
COMPANY 30 SEP 20 30 SEP 2019 CHANGE Switzerland; 5 EU; 28 OTHERS; 7
SAUDI ARAMCO 2029 1987 2,1% UK; 24
APPLE 1981 1012 95,8%
MICROSOFT 1592 1062 49,9% Corea SUD; 11
AMAZON 1577 859 83,6%
India; 21
ALPHABET/ GOOGLE 1000 838 19,3%
ALIBABA 795 435 82,8% Cina; 227
FACEBOOK 746 508 46,9%
TENCENT 647 399 62,2%
BERKSHIRE USA; 233
HATHAWAY 509 511 -0,4%
VISA 426 385 10,6%
SOURCE: “Lezioni Cinesi” (2019) Bloomberg and TechCrunchDATA, HURUN 6
THE PUZZLE OF LIBERAL DEMOCRACY
GROWTH RATES (1996–2018) AND DEMOCRACY INDEX (2015) (DIFFERENCES VERSUS AVERAGE)
INEFFICIENT DEMOCRACIES EFFICIENT DEMOCRACIES
NORWAY + 5,0
GERMANY
CANADA
AUSTRALIA SOUTH KOREA
ITALY JAPAN UK SWITZERLAND
FRANCE CORRELATION: -0,45
US ESTONIA CORRELATION (OECD): - 0,36
CORRELATION (NOT OECD): - 0,61
BRAZIL INDIA
- 10,0 % + 8,0%
GDP GROWTH
CUBA RUSSIA
DEMOCRACY INDEX
CHINA
QATAR
UAE
INEFFICIENT AUTOCRACIES EFFICIENT AUTOCRACIES
- 5,0
SOURCE: “DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH IN THE 21ST CENTURY” ON WORLD BANK AND EUI DATA 7
THE FALLACY OF THE «CATCH UP» ARGUMENT
REAL INCOME PER HABITANT, GROWTH RATES (IN USD 2011)
G7 Asia Eastern Europe Africa South America Middle East
1989 - 2016 1,9% 5,3% 2,1% 2,5% 2,7% 2,2%
1900 - 1988 2,2% 0,8% 2,0% 1,6% 1,8% 2,2%
1850 - 1900 1,4% 0,3% 1,5% 0,6% 0,8% 0,5%
per capita income in 1850 1.960 909 1.398 1.199 841 1.192
SOURCE: MADDISON PROJECT DATABASE, VERSIONE 2018. BOLT, JUTTA, ROBERT INKLAAR, HERMAN DE
JONG AND JAN LUITEN VAN ZANDEN 8
.. INTERNET AND THE GUTENBERG GALAXY
1455 1517
1969 2031
?
9LEZIONI CINESI UN ANNO DOPO
GDP IMPACT INDEX 2020/2021 (ON HORIZONTAL AXIS) AND COVID POPULATION/DEATH
(ON VERTICAL AXIS) (ALL EU COUNTRIES PLUS MAJOR ECONOMIES)
WINNERS
ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
-1
China
Lithuania
-3 Finland
Japan Singapore
South Korea
Netherland
Denmark
Germany Pakistan
Poland Brunei Darussalam
USA Russia
-5 Sweden Ireland Myanmar
Canada Indonesia
Belgium Luxemburg Australia
Austria Turkey
France Bulgaria Slovakia Egypt Kenya
Estonia
Latvia
Bandgladesh
Czech Republic Romania New Zealand
-7 Italy
UK South Africa Istrael Cyprus
Nigeria
Slovenia Portugal Malaysia
Mexico
-9 Hungary Croatia
Greece
Spain
LOSERS HEALTHCARE RESILIENCE
-11 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
10
SOURCE: PAPER VISION “WINNERS AND LOSERS”, 2021 (ON IMF AND WHO DATA)THE PANDEMIC AS THE GREAT FAILURE (OF THE WEST)
IN THE «BIG DATA» ERA ?
SHARE OF WORLD MACRO REGIONS ON COVID19 CASES, DEATHS, POPULATION, GDP AND HEALTH
EXPENDITURE TOTAL (%, AS OF 6 NOV 2020)
North America EU28 Rest of the World
37,9%
53,8% 56,0% 55,6%
89,0%
20,2%
21,7% 20,0%
24,5%
41,9%
24,5% 24,4%
19,5% 6,7%
4,3%
COV I D 1 9 C A S ES COV I D 1 9 D EAT H S P O P U L AT I O N H EA LT H E X P GDP
11
SOURCE: F. Grillo, “THE INNOVATION PARADOX”, OUP, (FORTHCOMING, 2021)IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT “GLOBALIZATION”… EXPORTS ON GDP (%) SOURCE: “DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH IN THE 21st CENTURY” (2019) ON WORLD BANK DATA
.. IT IS THE ENTREPRENEURIAL STATE.. INVESTIMENTS ON GDP (%) SOURCE: “DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH IN THE 21st CENTURY” (2019) ON WORLD BANK DATA 13
… THE INFRASTRUCTURE …
DISTRIBUTION OF KM OF SUBWAY (dx) AND HIGH SPEED TRAIN (LEFT), WORLD (2016)
UK USA OTHERS
OTHER SPAIN 0,3% 1,8% 2,6%
COUNTRIES 7,0%
ITALY
25%
2,3%
CHINA GERMANY
34% 4,0%
FRANCE
6,6%
TURKEY
SOUTH KOREA 1,7%
6% SOUTH KOREA
2,1%
SPAIN JAPAN CHINA
3% 7,3% 64,2%
RUSSIA
4% USA
INDIA
3% ITALY 10%
2%GERMANY UK JAPAN
3% 4% 6%
SOURCE: “DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH IN THE 21st CENTURY” ON UIC (UNION INTERNATIONAL DES CHEMINS FER) AND
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT DATA 14.. AND A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO “TIME” Fifteen years old chinese students score first in all three OECD PISA standard tests (maths, science and reading comprehension) SOURCE: OECD-PISA 15
THE INFORMATION ADVANTAGE ..
• INTERNET COME SISTEMA NERVOSO
• UTILIZZAZIONE DI START UPS E DEI PREZZI
COME SEGNALI
SUPERIORE CAPACITÀ DI POLICY
• RIFORME ATTRAVERSO LA SPERIMENTAZIONE DESIGN E DI POLICY
(«CROSS THE RIVER, FEELING THE STONES») IMPLEMENTATION
• INNOVAZIONE COME «FIGLIA DELLA
NECESSITÀ» (E AUMENTO DI EFFICIENZA)
• DIVERSA CONCEZIONE DELLO SPAZIO E DEL
TEMPO
16.. AND THE ULTIMATE CHALLENGE
• DISEGUAGLIANZE
• DEMOGRAFIA RAPPORTO TRA LIBERTÀ
PERSONALE E INNOVAZIONE IN
• DEBITO
UNA SOCIETÀ DI SVILUPPO
• INQUINAMENTO ELEVATO ?
• ACCERCHIAMENTO
17FURTHER READINGS
• Grillo, F., & Nanetti, R. (2020). Innovation and democracy: the twin paradoxes. Area
Development and Policy, 5(3), 233-255.
• Grillo F. (2020). COVID19: a checkmate of the WEST, OpenDemocracy
(https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/covid19-checkmate-west)
• Grillo F. (2019). Lezioni Cinesi. Solferino (http://www.solferinolibri.it/libri/lezioni-cinesi)
• Grillo, F., & Nanetti, R. Y. (2018). Democracy and Growth in the Twenty-first Century. Springer
International Publishing.
• Grillo, F., & Nanetti, R. Y. (2016). Innovation, democracy and efficiency: Exploring the innovation
puzzle within the European Union’s regional development policies. Springer.
• (Jackson T. Grillo F and Nanetti RY, Innovation, democracy and efficiency: Exploring the
innovation puzzle within the European Union’s regional development policies. Local Economy.
2016;31(8):922-925).
18FOLLOW UP
www.thinktank.vision
francesco.grillo@vision-forum.orgYou can also read
