Kew A local market review - CBRE Residential UK

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Kew A local market review - CBRE Residential UK
Kew
A local market review
Kew A local market review - CBRE Residential UK
Kew snapshot                               London overview

Kew is located in leafy                    In the post-recession recovery period
Richmond upon Thames, to the               London’s housing market has performed
                                           strongly, outperforming the wider UK market
north-east of the borough.                 by a significant margin. Prices across the city
Despite its almost rural location,         are now 43% above their previous peak.
it is around 30 minutes from               Some of the strongest growth occurred in
                                           2014 with annual growth peaking at 21% in
Waterloo and served by good                August. Towards the end of the year and
transport links. Its popularity as         moving into 2015, activity has slowed and
a residential location means it            growth started to cool. However, this is
                                           something we anticipated and we welcome
has above average house prices             an orderly slowdown. Fears of a London
and experienced strong house               house price bubble have subsided and the
price growth over the last year.           market is maintaining sustainable and robust
                                           growth, with 9% inflation in the year to
                                           September 2015.

                                           Moreover, activity in the new build market
                                           remains extremely strong and demand is
                                           high, with 67% of the 51,448 new build
                                           homes under construction already sold. This
                                           is the highest absorption rate of new build
                                           stock in recent years.

                                           London’s new build market

                                                                        70,000                                                                                                                      80%

                                                                                                                                                                                                    70%
                                                                        60,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                    60%
                                                                        50,000
                                     Private units under construction

                                                                                                                                                                                                    50%

                                                                        40,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                    40%

                                                                        30,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                    30%

                                                                        20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20%

                                                                        10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%

                                                                            0                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                             End 2007
                                                                                 2001–2006
                                                                                   average

                                                                                                        End 2008

                                                                                                                   End 2009

                                                                                                                              End 2010

                                                                                                                                         End 2011

                                                                                                                                                    End 2012

                                                                                                                                                               End 2013

                                                                                                                                                                          End 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                      Q3 2015

                                                                                                                                  Sold                     Unsold                    Proportion Sold (RHS)
Kew A local market review - CBRE Residential UK
Demographics and demand                                                                             Tenure profile
for homes
                                                                                                                           100%
Kew lies to the north-east of Richmond in      However, despite this marked demand, only
                                                                                                                           90%
the borough of Richmond-upon-Thames,           774 new homes have been built across the

                                                                                                Proportion of households
and with around 12,000 residents it            borough since 2009 resulting in a significant                               80%
                                                                                                                                            62%         65%
accommodates approximately 16% of              shortfall of housing. As a result, and typical                              70%
its population. In 2011 this number stood      of London overall, demand for homes is
at 11,436, having increased by 1,991           hugely outweighing supply and this is                                       60%
since 2001.                                    fuelling price inflation.                                                   50%

At borough level, the population of            Across Richmond, 38% of units currently                                     40%
Richmond-upon-Thames is currently              being built have been sold off plan.                                        30%
estimated at 199,632, having increased by                                                                                                   28%         22%
16% from 172,335 in 2001. This is expected                                                                                 20%

to grow to 216,613 by 2021, reflecting a                                                                                   10%                          13%
                                                                                                                                            10%
further increase of 9%. As a result of this
growth, the number of households in                                                                                                          Kew    Richmond upon
Richmond-upon-Thames increased by 5%                                                                                                                    Thames
between 2001 and 2011 to 80,000, and this is
                                                                                                                                 Owner occupied
expected to increase by a further 16% by
                                                                                                                                 Privately rented
2021, bringing the total number to 93,000.
                                                                                                                                 Socially rented
This represents growth of approximately
1,300 households per year.

Emerald Gardens, Kew
House prices and growth                             Average house price index

House price growth across Richmond-upon-                                     180
Thames has been extremely strong over the

                                                 Average house price index
past few years, with particular traction being                               160
gained from 2012. Overall its pattern of

                                                    (Base = Jan 2007)
growth has echoed that of London, but with
                                                                             140
averages consistently being higher than
the London average.
                                                                             120

London overall experienced the strongest
growth of the post-recession period in 2014,                                 100

but this was even more pronounced in
Richmond-upon-Thames. Prices in the                                           80
                                                                                   2007              2008     2009                      2010   2011     2012     2013           2014   2015
borough increased by 10% last year,
compared with 4% across London.
                                                                                                                                                      London          Richmond         Base

More specifically, properties within the
district of Kew (TW9) tend to achieve higher
asking prices than the wider borough.                Kew affordability - flats
The latest data shows units in TW9 sold for
                                                                           £1,000,000
an average of £814,225, 9% higher than the
borough average of £748,139 and 52%                                         £900,000
                                                 Average apartment price

higher than the London average of £536,615.
                                                                            £800,000
Broken down further, apartments in Kew are
achieving average prices of £501,530, 12%                                   £700,000
more than the borough which averages at                                     £600,000
£446,838 for a flat and 6% higher than
London over all.                                                            £500,000

                                                                            £400,000
On a local level, Kew is 16% more affordable
                                                                                          Richmond

                                                                                                        Kew

                                                                                                              Teddington

                                                                                                                           Twickenham

than Richmond, but more expensive than
both Teddington and Twickenham.

Property prices in the areas surrounding Kew

                                                                                                                                                               Below £150,000

                                                                                                                                                               £150,000 – £250,000

                                                                                                                                                               £250,000 – £350,000

                                                                                                                                                               £350,000 – £450,000

                                                                                                                                                               £450,000 – £550,000

                                                                                                                                                               £550,000 – £650,000

                                                                                                                                                               £650,000 – £750,000

                                                                                                                                                               £750,000 – £850,000

                                                                                                                                                               Above £850,000

                                                                                                                                                               Richmond upon Thames

                                                                                                                                                               Site

                                                                                                                                                                          2,000m
Location

Kew is a picturesque and charming area in          Average price increase over last year

                                                   10%
the borough of Richmond upon Thames.
It is home to attractions such as the Royal
Botanic Gardens, where 326 acres, four of
them under glass, contain the world’s largest
and most diverse collection of living plants,
together with beautiful Kew Palace. Serviced
by good transport links, the area is easily        Average house price

                                                   £814,225
accessible to London with Charing Cross
being only 32 minutes away by tube. In
addition it is only 17 minutes from Heathrow
airport and 14 minutes from Twickenham
stadium by car.

Overall, Kew is a sought after residential         Expected population growth to 2021

                                                   16%
area, popular with families and empty
nesters wanting to downsize. It is inordinately
‘green’, with the fore-mentioned Botanic
Gardens, Richmond Park, Syon Park and
Dukes Meadows Golf Club in close proximity.
It boasts the feeling of a village, a plethora
of restaurants and pubs, the aesthetics
of the country and a complete absence
of high rise buildings. In addition, the site is
situated close to the river and offers good
schools nearby.                                                                                                                  5 year growth
                                                                          2015        2016    2017         2018      2019
                                                                                                                                       2015-19

                                                   UK                      5%          3%       3%          4%           5%                  22%

                                                   London                  3%          3%       3%          5%           6%                  31%

                                                                                                        Westfield        Kensington Palace

                                                                                                         Latymer Prep School
                                                                                       Chiswick House
                                                                                       and Gardens
                                                                         Kew Palace
                    Heathrow Airport
                                                                  Syon Park           Kew               London Wetland centre
                                                                              Kew Gardens

                                                                                                         University of
                                                                Twickenham                               Roehampton
                                                                                  Richmond Park

                                                                                                            Wimbledon

                                                                Hampton Court Palace
Contacts               Jennet Siebrits                                           Alex Greaves
                       Head of Residential Research                              Director
                       +44 20 7182 2066                                          +44 20 7182 2062
                       jennet.siebrits@cbre.com                                  alex.greaves@cbre.com

Sources                CBRE, Molior, Rightmove, TFL

Disclaimer 2015 CBRE   CBRE Limited confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from
                       sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make
                       no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their
                       accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and
                       professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written
                       permission of CBRE. Images are computer generated. © 2015 CBRE Ltd.
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