K2 HEDGE FUND STRATEGY OUTLOOK - Q4 2021 - Franklin ...

Page created by Justin Logan
 
CONTINUE READING
K2 HEDGE FUND STRATEGY OUTLOOK - Q4 2021 - Franklin ...
K2
HEDGE FUND
STRATEGY
OUTLOOK
        Q4 2021
Q4 2021 Outlook: Summary

As we move into the fourth quarter                             Strategy Highlights
(Q4), markets are in a tug-of-war                              Long/Short             Managers engage companies directly on refinancing transactions. An
involving various good news versus bad                         Credit                 accommodative primary market allows the issuer to push out maturities,
news debates. COVID-19 cases are                                                      lower the cost of capital, and streamline the capital structure.
declining, but central banks are
                                                               Commodities            Tightening supplies and increased demand following further reopening
considering tightening monetary policy.                                               of the economy has led to multi-year highs across a variety
Earnings growth is strong, but year-                                                  commodity markets.
over-year comparisons will become
                                                               Event Driven           Record volumes of activity and greater dispersion of outcomes because
tougher. Employment statistics are
                                                                                      of regulatory and monetary uncertainties are favoring managers who
improving, but supply chain constraints
                                                                                      can produce alpha through security selection and trading.
persist. These debates and others lead
us to believe that certain hedge fund
strategies will outperform in a
potentially choppy environment.

                           Strategy                         Outlook

                           Long/Short Equity                We worry that many unpredictable macro factors will continue to challenge managers
                                                            as earnings are not reliably driving stock prices. Moreover, relatively high net and gross
                                                            exposures of most long/short managers leave them vulnerable to market disruptions.

                           Relative Value                   Mixed outlook for relative value strategies—fewer trading opportunities in fixed
                                                            income due to volatility and dispersion remaining depressed, but certain strategies such
                                                            as convertible arbitrage benefit from busy new issuance and corporate activity.

                           Event Driven                     Positive outlook due to continued strong pipeline of events combined with more
                                                            attractive spreads and greater diversity of outcomes due to increased regulatory and
                                                            geopolitical uncertainty.

                           Credit                           Spreads remain near historic tights, which favors trading-oriented strategies such as
                                                            long/short credit at the expense of more directional ones such as distressed and
                                                            direct lending. Pricing in structured credit remains inefficient, and managers expect
                                                            dispersion to persist in certain sectors.

                           Global Macro                     Managers continue to focus on the outlook for inflation and its implications for monetary
                                                            and fiscal policy changes, especially in the United States. As policy decisions begin
                                                            to be implemented, the opportunity set may become increasingly attractive for thematic
                                                            macro strategies.

                           Commodities                      A continued tight supply and demand environment will likely lead to relative value
                                                            trading opportunities. Despite renewed institutional interest, commodity managers have
                                                            remained disciplined in accepting investments and are managing capacity closely.

                           Insurance-Linked                 Initial January 1 pricing indications appear strong following Hurricane Ida and the
                           Securities (ILS)                 European flooding in Q3. Despite tightening over the course of the year, cat bond pricing
                                                            remains attractive on an absolute basis and relative to high yield instruments.

This outlook is provided to you for informational purposes and is not intended for redistribution. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
an interest in any investment product or fund. This outlook discusses strategies that are available through a variety of structures such as separate accounts, mutual
funds and private funds. Not all structures are available for all strategies shown. Interests or shares of an investment fund are offered only through the fund’s offering
documents, such as a Prospectus or Confidential Private Offering Memorandum.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
2       Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Macro Themes We Are Discussing

Global equity markets edged down during 2021’s third quarter                      Will strong corporate earnings continue to boost
(Q3). Early in the period, strong corporate earnings in several                   equity valuations?
parts of the world, full US regulatory approval for a COVID-19                    Much discussion over the past 12 months has focused on the risk
vaccine, and the Chinese central bank’s liquidity-boosting                        of above-average equity market valuations being reduced by the
measures aided markets. However, many investors were also                         convergence of the strong year-over-year earnings growth trend.
pricing in the potential for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin                Clearly earnings (and revenue) growth has been exceptional, and
tapering stimulus. Late in Q3, persistent inflation, more hawkish                 this has helped to reduce valuation concerns. That said, many of
central bank messaging and a continued regulatory crackdown in                    our hedge fund managers are monitoring 2022 earnings growth
China all dampened investor sentiment.                                            estimates as the comparisons to 2021 earnings becomes tougher
                                                                                  and growth rates slow. With a reduction in Fed asset purchases,
Going forward, our hedge fund managers and the K2 Investment
                                                                                  possibly higher interest rates, and pressure from raw material and
Committee are discussing some key themes that we believe will
                                                                                  wage inflation, the potential for reduced profit margins and
drive market sentiment and performance in the coming quarters.
                                                                                  earnings growth rates may lead to a wider gap between the
Is inflation transitory?                                                          performance of those companies with low debt and efficient
The gradual reopening of economies has created increased                          production processes versus those less well positioned.
demand for goods and raw materials. While this is good news,
                                                                                  Will regulatory and tax policy constraints hinder
workers’ lingering COVID-19 concerns are keeping factory
                                                                                  (or rotate) growth?
staffing (and production) at low levels. Thus, the supply of goods
                                                                                  Investors are weighing potential government initiatives involving
is hindered, and price increases are evident for those products
                                                                                  tighter data privacy policies, more aggressive antitrust regulation,
that are available. Adding to these production cuts are the
                                                                                  and higher corporate and personal tax rates. For example, Europe
blockages in the global supply chain as dock workers, truckers
                                                                                  continues to lead the way with internet privacy laws, and US
and shipping containers are in short supply. As a result, the
                                                                                  policymakers are starting to pay more attention to issues
current levels of inflation may hold for longer than was expected a
                                                                                  regarding the appropriate use of personal data. Companies in this
few months ago.
                                                                                  area are adjusting to this new regime and the impact on earnings
Will central banks shift to a less accommodative interest rate                    could be detrimental.
and liquidity policy?
                                                                                  China has recently reminded the world of its “common prosperity”
Given that inflation is running above central banks’ target levels
                                                                                  initiative, which, among other things, aims to reduce the income
and COVID-19 cases are declining in many parts of the world,
                                                                                  gap, limit the prosperity of technology and finance conglomerates,
central bankers have begun preparing investors for a reduction in
                                                                                  and reform tax rates to benefit the labor class. In the United
monetary stimulus and for future interest rate hikes. This is to be
                                                                                  States, there is talk of tax hikes to help pay for infrastructure
expected at this point in the recovery cycle, and we believe this
                                                                                  projects and ongoing concerns over the outsized influence of the
will be a major influence on markets for the next 12–18 months.
                                                                                  largest US companies. In this environment, those companies able
Real (and nominal) interest rates are near historically low levels,               to adapt to (or better compete in) this new policy world stand to
and much excess liquidity has helped the world to stabilize and                   benefit while others may experience lower margins and slower
recover from the COVID-19 crisis. The disparate impact of this                    growth rates.
less stimulative policy regime on various asset classes, sectors
                                                                                  In sum, the world may well be in a transition phase as economies,
and companies may increase volatility but will present potential
                                                                                  workers, consumers, governments and central banks adapt to a
opportunities for active managers.
                                                                                  post-COVID-19 world. Oftentimes, change creates opportunities
                                                                                  for those nimble enough to capture the new tailwinds while
                                                                                  hedging out the risks associated with a shifting environment. We
                                                                                  remain vigilant in this regard.

The above reflects the opinions of the K2 Investment Management (IM) group as of October 12, 2021, and may not reflect the views of other groups within
K2 or Franklin Templeton. The information provided is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, market, industry, security or
fund. Because market and economic conditions are subject to change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of this material and
may change without notice. A portfolio manager’s assessment of a particular security, investment or strategy is not intended as individual investment advice
or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy; it is intended only to provide insight into the fund’s
portfolio selection process.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
                                                                                                         Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021                    3
Q4 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights

Long/Short Credit                                                         Commodities
The macro environment has been very supportive of credit                  The global environment has been a tailwind to the broader
conditions, resulting in tight spreads across the board. We look          commodities markets leading to multi-year highs in the Bloomberg
forward to higher levels of dispersion among issuers and                  Commodity Total Return Index. We look forward to a rich
therefore a better opportunity set for pure credit pickers. In the        opportunity set, particularly in the energy sector, as volatility and
meantime, however, managers remain focused on events to                   prices increase. As the reopening of economies accelerates,
generate performance. In high yield, for example, the primary             demand for oil and products will likely increase as both work and
market remains extremely busy. Following a record year for                personal travel picks up. Supply across the energy complex is
activity in 2020, this year is on pace for an even greater volume of      unlikely to grow fast enough to accommodate the demand growth
deals. Managers often take an active role and work with issuers           leading to higher prices across global crude and natural gas
on completing refinancing or recapitalization transactions.               markets without factoring in any potential weather shocks as we
An accommodative primary market allows the issuer to push out             move closer towards winter. Typically, there is a significant lag
maturities, lower the weighted average cost of capital, and               between deciding to increase physical production and the result of
streamline the capital structure—all positives for the overall credit     higher supplies. We are seeing the impact of this disconnect
quality of the company. As a result, the entire debt stack often          with prices across the energy sector including crude, natural gas,
trades tighter, resulting in gains on existing positions. Even more       heating oil and gasoline all at multi-year highs.
directly, managers can extract fees from the transactions and flip
primary market allocations into the secondary market for a gain.          Exhibit 2: Baker Hughes US Oil and Gas Rig Count
                                                                          May 2015—October 2021
Exhibit 1: Annual High Yield Bond New Issue Volume
                                                                          Rigs
January 1992–October 2021
                                                                          1200
$ billions
500
                                                                          1000
450

400                                                                        800
350

300                                                                        600

250
                                                                           400
200

150
                                                                           200
100

 50                                                                           0
                                                                              May-15          Aug-16         Nov-17          Feb-19          May-20   Aug-21
                                                                                                                                                      Oct-21
   0
           1992
           1993
           1994
           1995
           1996
           1997
           1998
           1999
           2000
           2001
           2002
           2003
           2004
           2005
           2006
           2007
           2008
           2009
           2010
           2011
           2012
           2013
           2014
           2015
           2016
           2017
           2018
           2019
           2020
       YTD 2021

                                                                          Source: Bloomberg. Important data provide notices and terms available at
                                                                          www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

Source: JPMorgan. Important data provide notices and terms available at
www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
                                                                                                   Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021                   4
Q4 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights

Event Driven                                                             Average Gross Merger Arbitrage Spread
Corporate activity is on pace to exceed all-time records across          January 4, 2021–October 4, 2021
mergers and acquisition (M&A), leveraged buyouts (LBOs) ,                Spread
activist campaigns, buybacks and other types of events. What             9.00%
makes the strategy particularly attractive today, however, is the
                                                                         8.00%
increased dispersion of outcomes given greater risks associated
with them. Greater regulatory involvement in the United States           7.00%
and abroad, increased fundamental uncertainties due to changing
                                                                         6.00%
monetary policies, and more active shareholder and management
activism. These risks have translated to wider spreads and               5.00%
greater potential upside for managers who can produce alpha
                                                                         4.00%
through security selection and trading.
                                                                         3.00%

                                                                         2.00%

                                                                         1.00%

                                                                         0.00%
                                                                              Jan-21                    Apr-21                    Jul-21                    Oct-21

                                                                         Source: Citi Event Driven, weekly M&A Arb and SPAC Commentary Reports.
                                                                         Gross spreads weighted by market cap in a universe of approximately 60 deals >$1.0bn
                                                                         in value. Important data provide notices and terms available at
                                                                         www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
5     Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Q4 2021 Outlook by Strategy

Long/Short                                             While equity markets have gained momentum this year, long/short equity performance
Equity                                                 has been disappointing, and we anticipate the strategy to remain challenging. The
                                                       difference between the markets’ trajectory and companies’ fundamentals persist as
                                                       various participants react to a combination of elevated valuations, monetary and fiscal
                                                       policies, and geopolitical risks. Most managers continue to have conviction in their long
                                                       investments, and many have re-underwritten their underperforming long positions to
                                                       maintain comfort in their elevated gross and net exposures. Once the markets become
                                                       more fundamentally driven (as opposed to macro driven), we believe long/short equity
                                                       managers are poised to outperform their benchmarks. This outperformance should come
                                                       from both the longs and the shorts. Shorts are positioned to do well in a potentially rising
                                                       rate environment while providing protection in volatile markets.

Relative Value                                         Our outlook for relative value strategies remains mixed. While intermediate-term
                                                       uncertainty is increasing, for now central banks have been very successful in depressing
                                                       volatility and dispersion across many asset classes due to high policy transparency and
                                                       excess liquidity. That is particularly relevant for interest rate trading strategies, leading to
                                                       our neutral rating for fixed income arbitrage. Bright spots remain in convertible arbitrage
                                                       where a busy corporate activity calendar and greater dispersion in credit quality are
                                                       expected to persist and continue to offer improved opportunities. Our outlook for the
                                                       alpha environment in volatility trading strategies is similarly favorable. Volatility markets
                                                       across many asset classes remain inefficient and increasing policy uncertainty may
                                                       translate into better trading opportunities in the coming quarters.

Event Driven                                           Record-setting pace of activity continues across M&A, LBO transactions, activist
                                                       campaigns and other types of corporate events. If confidence and valuations remain
                                                       high, and liquidity plentiful, it is reasonable to expect continued strong levels of activity
                                                       going forward. What makes the strategy more attractive today, however, is the greater
                                                       dispersion of outcomes due to increasing regulatory uncertainty in the United States and
                                                       abroad, uneven impact of tightening monetary policy, impact of environmental, social,
                                                       and governance (ESG), and greater shareholder engagement with companies and
                                                       investors. All these factors can be interpreted as sources of risk for the strategy.
                                                       However, investors are now properly compensated for that risk through improved
                                                       spreads and potentially greater upside. This environment should be particularly favorable
                                                       for experienced managers who can produce significant alpha through selective
                                                       participation and trading around these events, as well as by driving their own outcomes,
                                                       as is the case with activism.

Understanding the Pendulum Graphic

   Strongly                                                Strongly
Underweight                                                Overweight

       Underweight                                  Overweight

                              Neutral

Arrows represent any change since the last quarter-end.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
                                                                                                    Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021               6
Q4 2021 Outlook by Strategy

Credit                                           The macro environment remains very supportive of credit as global economies continue
                                                 the reopening process. Capital markets have been wide open to new issuance since Q3
                                                 2020, and issuers have taken advantage to improve their liquidity profiles. Investors
                                                 continue to search for yield and are increasingly pushed out on the credit spectrum to hit
                                                 return targets. In sum, spreads are tight across the board. In long/short credit, managers
                                                 point to high levels of M&A as supportive of an event-driven approach. Shorting has
                                                 been challenging, but the flip side of tighter spreads is better entry points for shorts. The
                                                 rebound in structured credit has continued, and we expect dispersion in sectors like
                                                 commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and aviation that are more levered to
                                                 the reopening process. We maintain a strong underweight in distressed as defaults have
                                                 simply not materialized, especially weighed against the massive amount of dry powder in
                                                 the strategy yet to be deployed. Direct lending managers remain focused on their
                                                 existing portfolios, and borrowers are turning to accommodative capital markets.

Global Macro                                     Markets continue to be heavily influenced by macro developments, especially related to
                                                 inflation and the fiscal and monetary policy mix. While shifts in these factors have
                                                 contributed to volatility and challenged some managers’ positioning in the last quarter,
                                                 increased clarity on policy paths going forward may support medium or long-term
                                                 thematic positioning across major markets. Within emerging markets, manager
                                                 conviction has been relatively low recently given the headwinds of expected policy
                                                 tightening and regulatory pressures in markets like China. However, specialist managers
                                                 focused on relative value may continue to find opportunities, for example, between
                                                 commodity exporting and importing countries. The potential for policy certainty to help
                                                 develop medium- to long-term directional themes and trends may also support
                                                 systematic macro strategies.

Commodities                                      While the trading environment has improved, most established long/short commodity
                                                 hedge funds have limited to no capacity. We view this positively as today’s commodity
                                                 hedge funds have learned from the prior cycle. As we enter a period of tighter supply
                                                 and demand, these more capital-disciplined managers are positioned to take advantage
                                                 of relative value trading opportunities. Energy markets will likely have the richest
                                                 opportunity set as more of the economy reopens spurring increasing demand, which
                                                 will need supply to follow. A cold winter could lead to higher levels of volatility and
                                                 dispersion within energy, which relative value commodity managers would be best
                                                 positioned to benefit.

Insurance-                                       Inflows into catastrophe (cat) bonds continue to support market growth and secondary
Linked                                           trading. Lower-risk strategies have performed well following the Q3 event activity,
Securities                                       including Hurricane Ida, and offer attractive relative valuations to us. We note that as
                                                 fewer investors favor higher-risk strategies due to prior performance, lower levels of
                                                 competition could lead to a more favorable environment for investors. We believe loss
                                                 development from prior years’ events, further insight into the impact of Ida and the July
                                                 European flooding, and overall investor demand will be key in determining the final price
                                                 increases at the January renewal period.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
7        Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Outlook Trend for Strategies and Sub-Strategies                                                                                          Sub-Strategies Ranked
                                                                                                                                         by Z-Score
Strategies                                              Q3 2021               Q4 2021                        Changes

Long/Short Equity                                                                                                 —                      Rankings (Top Down)                      Z-Score

Long/Short Equity                                                                                                 —
                                                                                                                                         Discretionary                                  1.3
Equity Market Neutral                                                                                             —                      Europe                                         1.3
Europe                                                                                                                                   Private Transactions                           1.2

Asia                                                                                                                                     Cat Bonds                                      1.1
Technology                                                                                                                               Natural Gas                                    0.9

Healthcare                                                                                                        —                      Agriculture                                    0.9
Relative Value                                                                                                                           Oil & Products                                 0.8

Convertible Arbitrage                                                                                             —                      Structured Credit                              0.6
Volatility Arbitrage                                                                                              —                      ED—Special Situations                          0.6

Fixed Income                                                                                                                             Emerging Markets                               0.5
Event Driven                                                                                                      —                      ED—Merger Arbitrage                            0.5

Activist                                                                                                          —                      Volatility Arbitrage                           0.3
Merger Arbitrage                                                                                                                         Long/Short Credit                              0.1

Special Situations                                                                                                —                      Activist                                       0.1

Credit                                                                                                            —                      Systematic                                     0.1

Direct Lending                                                                                                                           Convertible Arbitrage                          0.0

Distressed                                                                                                        —                      Metals                                        -0.1

Long/Short Credit                                                                                                                        ILWs                                          -0.1

Structured Credit                                                                                                                        Retrocessional                                -0.1

Global Macro                                                                                                      —                      Technology                                    -0.2

Discretionary                                                                                                     —
                                                                                                                                         Asia                                          -0.2
Systematic                                                                                                                               Healthcare                                    -0.4
Emerging Markets                                                                                                  —
                                                                                                                                         Fixed Income                                  -0.5
Commodities                                                                                                       —
                                                                                                                                         Direct Lending                                -1.1
Oil & Products                                                                                                    —
                                                                                                                                         Equity Market Neutral                         -1.3
Agriculture                                                                                                                              Long Short Equity                             -1.7
Metals                                                                                                                                   Distressed                                    -2.3
Natural Gas                                                                                                                              Life Securitization                           -2.4
Insurance-Linked Securities

Catastrophe Bonds

Private Transactions                                                                                                                     > +1                           Strongly Overweight
                                                                                                                                         +0.5 to +1                     Overweight
Life Securitization                                                                                               —
                                                                                                                                         -0.5 to +0.5                   Neutral
Retrocessional                                                                                                                           -1 to -0.5                     Underweight
Industry Loss Warranties                                                                                          —                      < -1                           Strongly Underweight

The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin
Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy.
Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or substrategy and may change from time to time in K2’s sole
discretion. In certain sections of this presentation, outlook scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment
recommendations, which may vary based on a client’s specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, underweightings and overweightings as shown are meant to
indicate K2's view of relative attractiveness of hedge strategies and are not meant to indicate that a particular strategy or sub-strategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any
given portfolio. This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated across several K2 strategies. This discussion is
not meant to represent a discussion of the overall performance of any K2 strategy. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
                                                                                                                                  Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021                                      8
Glossary
Alpha                                                                       Retrocessional
A mathematical value indicating an investment's excess return relative to   A type of insurance contract that allows a re-insurer to transfer risks it has
a benchmark. Measures a manager's value added relative to a passive         re-insured to another re-insurer.
strategy, independent of the market movement.
                                                                            Z-score
Correlation                                                                 A Z-score is a numerical measurement used in statistics of a value’s
The degree of interaction between an investment’s return and that           relationship to the mean (average) of a group of values, measured in
of the comparison Index. The correlation coefficient, expressed as a        terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates
value between +1 and –1, indicates the strength and direction of the        that the data point's score is identical to the mean score.
linear relationship between the investment’s returns and the returns of
the index.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
9      Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Notes

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
10    Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
DISCLOSURE
The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and
may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund
strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy.
Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or
substrategy and may change from time to time in K2's sole discretion.
These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment recommendations, which may vary based on a client's
specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, a positive or negative score may not indicate that a
particular strategy or substrategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any given portfolio.
This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated
across several K2 strategies. This document is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is
it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of any of the funds employing K2 strategies. Nothing in this document should be
construed as investment advice. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2. This presentation
should not be reproduced without the written consent of K2.
Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.
Certain information contained in this document represents or is based upon forward-looking statements or information, including
descriptions of anticipated market changes and expectations of future activity. K2 believes that such statements and information are
based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements and information are inherently uncertain and
actual events or results may differ from those projected. Therefore, too much reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking
statements and information.
Professional care and diligence have been exercised in the collection of information in this document. However, data from third party
sources may have been used in its preparation and Franklin Templeton/K2 has not independently verified, validated or audited
such data.
Any research and analysis contained in this document has been procured by Franklin Templeton/K2 Investments for its own purposes
and is provided to you only incidentally. Franklin Templeton/K2 shall not be liable to any user of this document or to any other person or
entity for the inaccuracy of information or any errors or omissions in its contents, regardless of the cause of such inaccuracy, error
or omission.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
All investments involve risks, including possible loss or principal. Investments in alternative investment strategies and hedge
funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are complex and speculative investments, entail significant risk and should not be
considered a complete investment program. Financial Derivative instruments are often used in alternative investment strategies and
involve costs and can create economic leverage in the fund's portfolio which may result in significant volatility and cause the fund to
participate in losses (as well as gains) in an amount that significantly exceeds the fund's initial investment. Depending on the product
invested in, an investment in Alternative Investments may provide for only limited liquidity and is suitable only for persons who can
afford to lose the entire amount of their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment strategies employed by K2 or the
managers of the investment entities selected by K2 will be successful.
The identification of attractive investment opportunities is difficult and involves a significant degree of uncertainty. Returns generated
from Alternative Investments may not adequately compensate investors for the business and financial risks assumed. An investment in
Alternative Investments is subject to those market risks common to entities investing in all types of securities, including market volatility.
Also, certain trading techniques employed by Alternative Investments, such as leverage and hedging, may increase the adverse impact
to which an investment portfolio may be subject.
Depending on the structure of the product invested, Alternative Investments may not be required to provide investors with periodic
pricing or valuation and there may be a lack of transparency as to the underlying assets. Investing in Alternative Investments may also
involve tax consequences and a prospective investor should consult with a tax advisor before investing. In addition to direct asset-
based fees and expenses, certain Alternative Investments such as funds of hedge funds incur additional indirect fees, expenses and
asset-based compensation of investment funds in which these Alternative Investments invest.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
                                                                                             Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021            11
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
This This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or
solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice.
The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at October 12, 2021, and may
change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country,
region or market.
All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.
Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified,
validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments,
opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.
Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors
as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on
availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.
The information in this document is provided by K2 Advisors. K2 Advisors is a wholly owned subsidiary of K2 Advisors Holdings, LLC, which is a
majority-owned subsidiary of Franklin Templeton Institutional, LLC, which, in turn, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc. (NYSE:
BEN). K2 operates as an investment group of Franklin Templeton Alternative Strategies, a division of Franklin Resources, Inc., a global investment
management organization operating as Franklin Templeton.
Issued in the U.S. by Franklin Templeton, One Franklin Parkway, San Mateo, California 94403-1906, (800) DIAL BEN/342-5236,
franklintempleton.com—Investments are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed.

Australia: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments Australia Limited (ABN 87 006 972 247) (Australian Financial Services License Holder No. 225328), Level 19, 101 Collins Street,
Melbourne, Victoria, 3000. Austria/Germany: Issued by Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l., Niederlassung Deutschland, Frankfurt, Mainzer Landstr. 16, 60325
Frankfurt/Main. Tel: 08 00/0 73 80 01 (Germany), 08 00/29 59 11 (Austria), Fax: +49(0)69/2 72 23-120, info@franklintempleton.de, info@franklintempleton.at. Canada: Issued by Franklin
Templeton Investments Corp., 200 King Street West, Suite 1500 Toronto, ON, M5H3T4, Fax: (416) 364-1163, (800) 387-0830, www.franklintempleton.ca. Netherlands: Franklin
Templeton International Services S.à r.l., Dutch Branch, World Trade Center Amsterdam, H-Toren, 5e verdieping, Zuidplein 36, 1077 XV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Tel: +31 (0) 20 575
2890. United Arab Emirates: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments (ME) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Dubai office: Franklin
Templeton, The Gate, East Wing, Level 2, Dubai International Financial Centre, P.O. Box 506613, Dubai, U.A.E. Tel: +9714-4284100 Fax: +9714-4284140. France: Issued by Franklin
Templeton International Services S.à r.l., French branch, 55 avenue Hoche, 75008 Paris France. Hong Kong: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments (Asia) Limited, 17/F, Chater
House, 8 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong. Italy: Issued by Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. – Italian Branch, Corso Italia, 1 – Milan, 20122, Italy. Japan: Issued by
Franklin Templeton Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial
Instruments Business Operator), No. 417, Member of the Investment Trust Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, and Type II Financial Instruments Firms
Association. Korea: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Trust Management Co., Ltd., 3rd fl., CCMM Building, 12 Youido-Dong, Youngdungpo-Gu, Seoul, Korea 150-968.
Luxembourg/Benelux: Issued by Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. – Supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier - 8A, rue Albert Borschette, L-
1246 Luxembourg. Tel: +352-46 66 67-1 Fax: +352-46 66 76. Malaysia: Issued by Franklin Templeton Asset Management (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. & Franklin Templeton GSC Asset
Management Sdn. Bhd. This document has not been reviewed by Securities Commission Malaysia. Poland: Issued by Templeton Asset Management (Poland) TFI S.A.; Rondo ONZ 1;
00-124 Warsaw. Romania: Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. Luxembourg, Bucharest Branch, at 78-80 Buzesti Str, Premium Point, 8th Floor, Bucharest 1, 011017,
Romania. Registered with Romania Financial Supervisory Authority under no. PJM07.1AFIASMDLUX0037/10 March 2016 and authorized and regulated in Luxembourg by Commission
de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Tel: + 40 21 200 9600. Singapore: Issued by Templeton Asset Management Ltd. Registration No. (UEN) 199205211E and Legg Mason Asset
Management Singapore Pte. Limited, Registration Number (UEN) 200007942R. Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore Pte. Limited is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin
Resources, Inc. 7 Temasek Boulevard, #38-03 Suntec Tower One, 038987, Singapore. Spain: Issued by Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. – Spanish Branch,
Professional of the Financial Sector under the Supervision of CNMV, José Ortega y Gasset 29, Madrid, Spain. Tel: +34 91 426 3600, Fax: +34 91 577 1857. South Africa: Issued by
Franklin Templeton Investments SA (PTY) Ltd, which is an authorised Financial Services Provider. Tel: +27 (21) 831 7400 Fax: +27 (21) 831 7422. Switzerland: Issued by Franklin
Templeton Switzerland Ltd, Stockerstrasse 38, CH-8002 Zurich. UK: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML), registered office: Cannon Place, 78
Cannon Street, London EC4N 6HL. Tel: +44 (0)20 7073 8500. Authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. Nordic regions: Issued by Franklin
Templeton International Services S.à r.l. Swedish Branch, filial, Nybrokajen 5, SE-111 48, Stockholm, Sweden. Tel: +46 (0)8 545 012 30, nordicinfo@franklintempleton.com, authorised in
Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier to conduct certain financial activities in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Finland. Franklin Templeton
International Services S.à r.l., Swedish Branch, filial conducts activities under supervision of Finansinspektionen in Sweden. Offshore Americas: In the U.S., this publication is made
available only to financial intermediaries by Franklin Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, 100 Fountain Parkway, St. Petersburg, Florida 33716. Tel: (800) 239-3894 (USA Toll-Free),
(877) 389-0076 (Canada Toll-Free), and Fax: (727) 299-8736. Investments are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed. Distribution outside the U.S. may be
made by Franklin Templeton International Services, S.à r.l. (FTIS) or other sub-distributors, intermediaries, dealers or professional investors that have been engaged by FTIS to distribute
shares of Franklin Templeton funds in certain jurisdictions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase securities in any jurisdiction where it would be illegal to do so.
Please visit www.franklinresources.com to be directed to your local Franklin Templeton website.
The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer; or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or
circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors.
© 2021 Franklin Templeton. All rights reserved.                                                                                                                                    HFSO_4Q21_1021
You can also read