K2 HEDGE FUND STRATEGY OUTLOOK - Q4 2021 - Franklin ...
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Q4 2021 Outlook: Summary As we move into the fourth quarter Strategy Highlights (Q4), markets are in a tug-of-war Long/Short Managers engage companies directly on refinancing transactions. An involving various good news versus bad Credit accommodative primary market allows the issuer to push out maturities, news debates. COVID-19 cases are lower the cost of capital, and streamline the capital structure. declining, but central banks are Commodities Tightening supplies and increased demand following further reopening considering tightening monetary policy. of the economy has led to multi-year highs across a variety Earnings growth is strong, but year- commodity markets. over-year comparisons will become Event Driven Record volumes of activity and greater dispersion of outcomes because tougher. Employment statistics are of regulatory and monetary uncertainties are favoring managers who improving, but supply chain constraints can produce alpha through security selection and trading. persist. These debates and others lead us to believe that certain hedge fund strategies will outperform in a potentially choppy environment. Strategy Outlook Long/Short Equity We worry that many unpredictable macro factors will continue to challenge managers as earnings are not reliably driving stock prices. Moreover, relatively high net and gross exposures of most long/short managers leave them vulnerable to market disruptions. Relative Value Mixed outlook for relative value strategies—fewer trading opportunities in fixed income due to volatility and dispersion remaining depressed, but certain strategies such as convertible arbitrage benefit from busy new issuance and corporate activity. Event Driven Positive outlook due to continued strong pipeline of events combined with more attractive spreads and greater diversity of outcomes due to increased regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty. Credit Spreads remain near historic tights, which favors trading-oriented strategies such as long/short credit at the expense of more directional ones such as distressed and direct lending. Pricing in structured credit remains inefficient, and managers expect dispersion to persist in certain sectors. Global Macro Managers continue to focus on the outlook for inflation and its implications for monetary and fiscal policy changes, especially in the United States. As policy decisions begin to be implemented, the opportunity set may become increasingly attractive for thematic macro strategies. Commodities A continued tight supply and demand environment will likely lead to relative value trading opportunities. Despite renewed institutional interest, commodity managers have remained disciplined in accepting investments and are managing capacity closely. Insurance-Linked Initial January 1 pricing indications appear strong following Hurricane Ida and the Securities (ILS) European flooding in Q3. Despite tightening over the course of the year, cat bond pricing remains attractive on an absolute basis and relative to high yield instruments. This outlook is provided to you for informational purposes and is not intended for redistribution. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment product or fund. This outlook discusses strategies that are available through a variety of structures such as separate accounts, mutual funds and private funds. Not all structures are available for all strategies shown. Interests or shares of an investment fund are offered only through the fund’s offering documents, such as a Prospectus or Confidential Private Offering Memorandum. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 2 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Macro Themes We Are Discussing Global equity markets edged down during 2021’s third quarter Will strong corporate earnings continue to boost (Q3). Early in the period, strong corporate earnings in several equity valuations? parts of the world, full US regulatory approval for a COVID-19 Much discussion over the past 12 months has focused on the risk vaccine, and the Chinese central bank’s liquidity-boosting of above-average equity market valuations being reduced by the measures aided markets. However, many investors were also convergence of the strong year-over-year earnings growth trend. pricing in the potential for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin Clearly earnings (and revenue) growth has been exceptional, and tapering stimulus. Late in Q3, persistent inflation, more hawkish this has helped to reduce valuation concerns. That said, many of central bank messaging and a continued regulatory crackdown in our hedge fund managers are monitoring 2022 earnings growth China all dampened investor sentiment. estimates as the comparisons to 2021 earnings becomes tougher and growth rates slow. With a reduction in Fed asset purchases, Going forward, our hedge fund managers and the K2 Investment possibly higher interest rates, and pressure from raw material and Committee are discussing some key themes that we believe will wage inflation, the potential for reduced profit margins and drive market sentiment and performance in the coming quarters. earnings growth rates may lead to a wider gap between the Is inflation transitory? performance of those companies with low debt and efficient The gradual reopening of economies has created increased production processes versus those less well positioned. demand for goods and raw materials. While this is good news, Will regulatory and tax policy constraints hinder workers’ lingering COVID-19 concerns are keeping factory (or rotate) growth? staffing (and production) at low levels. Thus, the supply of goods Investors are weighing potential government initiatives involving is hindered, and price increases are evident for those products tighter data privacy policies, more aggressive antitrust regulation, that are available. Adding to these production cuts are the and higher corporate and personal tax rates. For example, Europe blockages in the global supply chain as dock workers, truckers continues to lead the way with internet privacy laws, and US and shipping containers are in short supply. As a result, the policymakers are starting to pay more attention to issues current levels of inflation may hold for longer than was expected a regarding the appropriate use of personal data. Companies in this few months ago. area are adjusting to this new regime and the impact on earnings Will central banks shift to a less accommodative interest rate could be detrimental. and liquidity policy? China has recently reminded the world of its “common prosperity” Given that inflation is running above central banks’ target levels initiative, which, among other things, aims to reduce the income and COVID-19 cases are declining in many parts of the world, gap, limit the prosperity of technology and finance conglomerates, central bankers have begun preparing investors for a reduction in and reform tax rates to benefit the labor class. In the United monetary stimulus and for future interest rate hikes. This is to be States, there is talk of tax hikes to help pay for infrastructure expected at this point in the recovery cycle, and we believe this projects and ongoing concerns over the outsized influence of the will be a major influence on markets for the next 12–18 months. largest US companies. In this environment, those companies able Real (and nominal) interest rates are near historically low levels, to adapt to (or better compete in) this new policy world stand to and much excess liquidity has helped the world to stabilize and benefit while others may experience lower margins and slower recover from the COVID-19 crisis. The disparate impact of this growth rates. less stimulative policy regime on various asset classes, sectors In sum, the world may well be in a transition phase as economies, and companies may increase volatility but will present potential workers, consumers, governments and central banks adapt to a opportunities for active managers. post-COVID-19 world. Oftentimes, change creates opportunities for those nimble enough to capture the new tailwinds while hedging out the risks associated with a shifting environment. We remain vigilant in this regard. The above reflects the opinions of the K2 Investment Management (IM) group as of October 12, 2021, and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. The information provided is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, market, industry, security or fund. Because market and economic conditions are subject to change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of this material and may change without notice. A portfolio manager’s assessment of a particular security, investment or strategy is not intended as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy; it is intended only to provide insight into the fund’s portfolio selection process. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021 3
Q4 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights Long/Short Credit Commodities The macro environment has been very supportive of credit The global environment has been a tailwind to the broader conditions, resulting in tight spreads across the board. We look commodities markets leading to multi-year highs in the Bloomberg forward to higher levels of dispersion among issuers and Commodity Total Return Index. We look forward to a rich therefore a better opportunity set for pure credit pickers. In the opportunity set, particularly in the energy sector, as volatility and meantime, however, managers remain focused on events to prices increase. As the reopening of economies accelerates, generate performance. In high yield, for example, the primary demand for oil and products will likely increase as both work and market remains extremely busy. Following a record year for personal travel picks up. Supply across the energy complex is activity in 2020, this year is on pace for an even greater volume of unlikely to grow fast enough to accommodate the demand growth deals. Managers often take an active role and work with issuers leading to higher prices across global crude and natural gas on completing refinancing or recapitalization transactions. markets without factoring in any potential weather shocks as we An accommodative primary market allows the issuer to push out move closer towards winter. Typically, there is a significant lag maturities, lower the weighted average cost of capital, and between deciding to increase physical production and the result of streamline the capital structure—all positives for the overall credit higher supplies. We are seeing the impact of this disconnect quality of the company. As a result, the entire debt stack often with prices across the energy sector including crude, natural gas, trades tighter, resulting in gains on existing positions. Even more heating oil and gasoline all at multi-year highs. directly, managers can extract fees from the transactions and flip primary market allocations into the secondary market for a gain. Exhibit 2: Baker Hughes US Oil and Gas Rig Count May 2015—October 2021 Exhibit 1: Annual High Yield Bond New Issue Volume Rigs January 1992–October 2021 1200 $ billions 500 1000 450 400 800 350 300 600 250 400 200 150 200 100 50 0 May-15 Aug-16 Nov-17 Feb-19 May-20 Aug-21 Oct-21 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021 Source: Bloomberg. Important data provide notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Source: JPMorgan. Important data provide notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021 4
Q4 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights Event Driven Average Gross Merger Arbitrage Spread Corporate activity is on pace to exceed all-time records across January 4, 2021–October 4, 2021 mergers and acquisition (M&A), leveraged buyouts (LBOs) , Spread activist campaigns, buybacks and other types of events. What 9.00% makes the strategy particularly attractive today, however, is the 8.00% increased dispersion of outcomes given greater risks associated with them. Greater regulatory involvement in the United States 7.00% and abroad, increased fundamental uncertainties due to changing 6.00% monetary policies, and more active shareholder and management activism. These risks have translated to wider spreads and 5.00% greater potential upside for managers who can produce alpha 4.00% through security selection and trading. 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Source: Citi Event Driven, weekly M&A Arb and SPAC Commentary Reports. Gross spreads weighted by market cap in a universe of approximately 60 deals >$1.0bn in value. Important data provide notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 5 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Q4 2021 Outlook by Strategy Long/Short While equity markets have gained momentum this year, long/short equity performance Equity has been disappointing, and we anticipate the strategy to remain challenging. The difference between the markets’ trajectory and companies’ fundamentals persist as various participants react to a combination of elevated valuations, monetary and fiscal policies, and geopolitical risks. Most managers continue to have conviction in their long investments, and many have re-underwritten their underperforming long positions to maintain comfort in their elevated gross and net exposures. Once the markets become more fundamentally driven (as opposed to macro driven), we believe long/short equity managers are poised to outperform their benchmarks. This outperformance should come from both the longs and the shorts. Shorts are positioned to do well in a potentially rising rate environment while providing protection in volatile markets. Relative Value Our outlook for relative value strategies remains mixed. While intermediate-term uncertainty is increasing, for now central banks have been very successful in depressing volatility and dispersion across many asset classes due to high policy transparency and excess liquidity. That is particularly relevant for interest rate trading strategies, leading to our neutral rating for fixed income arbitrage. Bright spots remain in convertible arbitrage where a busy corporate activity calendar and greater dispersion in credit quality are expected to persist and continue to offer improved opportunities. Our outlook for the alpha environment in volatility trading strategies is similarly favorable. Volatility markets across many asset classes remain inefficient and increasing policy uncertainty may translate into better trading opportunities in the coming quarters. Event Driven Record-setting pace of activity continues across M&A, LBO transactions, activist campaigns and other types of corporate events. If confidence and valuations remain high, and liquidity plentiful, it is reasonable to expect continued strong levels of activity going forward. What makes the strategy more attractive today, however, is the greater dispersion of outcomes due to increasing regulatory uncertainty in the United States and abroad, uneven impact of tightening monetary policy, impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG), and greater shareholder engagement with companies and investors. All these factors can be interpreted as sources of risk for the strategy. However, investors are now properly compensated for that risk through improved spreads and potentially greater upside. This environment should be particularly favorable for experienced managers who can produce significant alpha through selective participation and trading around these events, as well as by driving their own outcomes, as is the case with activism. Understanding the Pendulum Graphic Strongly Strongly Underweight Overweight Underweight Overweight Neutral Arrows represent any change since the last quarter-end. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021 6
Q4 2021 Outlook by Strategy Credit The macro environment remains very supportive of credit as global economies continue the reopening process. Capital markets have been wide open to new issuance since Q3 2020, and issuers have taken advantage to improve their liquidity profiles. Investors continue to search for yield and are increasingly pushed out on the credit spectrum to hit return targets. In sum, spreads are tight across the board. In long/short credit, managers point to high levels of M&A as supportive of an event-driven approach. Shorting has been challenging, but the flip side of tighter spreads is better entry points for shorts. The rebound in structured credit has continued, and we expect dispersion in sectors like commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and aviation that are more levered to the reopening process. We maintain a strong underweight in distressed as defaults have simply not materialized, especially weighed against the massive amount of dry powder in the strategy yet to be deployed. Direct lending managers remain focused on their existing portfolios, and borrowers are turning to accommodative capital markets. Global Macro Markets continue to be heavily influenced by macro developments, especially related to inflation and the fiscal and monetary policy mix. While shifts in these factors have contributed to volatility and challenged some managers’ positioning in the last quarter, increased clarity on policy paths going forward may support medium or long-term thematic positioning across major markets. Within emerging markets, manager conviction has been relatively low recently given the headwinds of expected policy tightening and regulatory pressures in markets like China. However, specialist managers focused on relative value may continue to find opportunities, for example, between commodity exporting and importing countries. The potential for policy certainty to help develop medium- to long-term directional themes and trends may also support systematic macro strategies. Commodities While the trading environment has improved, most established long/short commodity hedge funds have limited to no capacity. We view this positively as today’s commodity hedge funds have learned from the prior cycle. As we enter a period of tighter supply and demand, these more capital-disciplined managers are positioned to take advantage of relative value trading opportunities. Energy markets will likely have the richest opportunity set as more of the economy reopens spurring increasing demand, which will need supply to follow. A cold winter could lead to higher levels of volatility and dispersion within energy, which relative value commodity managers would be best positioned to benefit. Insurance- Inflows into catastrophe (cat) bonds continue to support market growth and secondary Linked trading. Lower-risk strategies have performed well following the Q3 event activity, Securities including Hurricane Ida, and offer attractive relative valuations to us. We note that as fewer investors favor higher-risk strategies due to prior performance, lower levels of competition could lead to a more favorable environment for investors. We believe loss development from prior years’ events, further insight into the impact of Ida and the July European flooding, and overall investor demand will be key in determining the final price increases at the January renewal period. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 7 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Outlook Trend for Strategies and Sub-Strategies Sub-Strategies Ranked by Z-Score Strategies Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Changes Long/Short Equity — Rankings (Top Down) Z-Score Long/Short Equity — Discretionary 1.3 Equity Market Neutral — Europe 1.3 Europe Private Transactions 1.2 Asia Cat Bonds 1.1 Technology Natural Gas 0.9 Healthcare — Agriculture 0.9 Relative Value Oil & Products 0.8 Convertible Arbitrage — Structured Credit 0.6 Volatility Arbitrage — ED—Special Situations 0.6 Fixed Income Emerging Markets 0.5 Event Driven — ED—Merger Arbitrage 0.5 Activist — Volatility Arbitrage 0.3 Merger Arbitrage Long/Short Credit 0.1 Special Situations — Activist 0.1 Credit — Systematic 0.1 Direct Lending Convertible Arbitrage 0.0 Distressed — Metals -0.1 Long/Short Credit ILWs -0.1 Structured Credit Retrocessional -0.1 Global Macro — Technology -0.2 Discretionary — Asia -0.2 Systematic Healthcare -0.4 Emerging Markets — Fixed Income -0.5 Commodities — Direct Lending -1.1 Oil & Products — Equity Market Neutral -1.3 Agriculture Long Short Equity -1.7 Metals Distressed -2.3 Natural Gas Life Securitization -2.4 Insurance-Linked Securities Catastrophe Bonds Private Transactions > +1 Strongly Overweight +0.5 to +1 Overweight Life Securitization — -0.5 to +0.5 Neutral Retrocessional -1 to -0.5 Underweight Industry Loss Warranties — < -1 Strongly Underweight The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy. Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or substrategy and may change from time to time in K2’s sole discretion. In certain sections of this presentation, outlook scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment recommendations, which may vary based on a client’s specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, underweightings and overweightings as shown are meant to indicate K2's view of relative attractiveness of hedge strategies and are not meant to indicate that a particular strategy or sub-strategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any given portfolio. This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated across several K2 strategies. This discussion is not meant to represent a discussion of the overall performance of any K2 strategy. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021 8
Glossary Alpha Retrocessional A mathematical value indicating an investment's excess return relative to A type of insurance contract that allows a re-insurer to transfer risks it has a benchmark. Measures a manager's value added relative to a passive re-insured to another re-insurer. strategy, independent of the market movement. Z-score Correlation A Z-score is a numerical measurement used in statistics of a value’s The degree of interaction between an investment’s return and that relationship to the mean (average) of a group of values, measured in of the comparison Index. The correlation coefficient, expressed as a terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates value between +1 and –1, indicates the strength and direction of the that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. linear relationship between the investment’s returns and the returns of the index. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 9 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
Notes For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 10 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021
DISCLOSURE The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy. Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or substrategy and may change from time to time in K2's sole discretion. These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment recommendations, which may vary based on a client's specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, a positive or negative score may not indicate that a particular strategy or substrategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any given portfolio. This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated across several K2 strategies. This document is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of any of the funds employing K2 strategies. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2. This presentation should not be reproduced without the written consent of K2. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. Certain information contained in this document represents or is based upon forward-looking statements or information, including descriptions of anticipated market changes and expectations of future activity. K2 believes that such statements and information are based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements and information are inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ from those projected. Therefore, too much reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements and information. Professional care and diligence have been exercised in the collection of information in this document. However, data from third party sources may have been used in its preparation and Franklin Templeton/K2 has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Any research and analysis contained in this document has been procured by Franklin Templeton/K2 Investments for its own purposes and is provided to you only incidentally. Franklin Templeton/K2 shall not be liable to any user of this document or to any other person or entity for the inaccuracy of information or any errors or omissions in its contents, regardless of the cause of such inaccuracy, error or omission. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss or principal. Investments in alternative investment strategies and hedge funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are complex and speculative investments, entail significant risk and should not be considered a complete investment program. Financial Derivative instruments are often used in alternative investment strategies and involve costs and can create economic leverage in the fund's portfolio which may result in significant volatility and cause the fund to participate in losses (as well as gains) in an amount that significantly exceeds the fund's initial investment. Depending on the product invested in, an investment in Alternative Investments may provide for only limited liquidity and is suitable only for persons who can afford to lose the entire amount of their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment strategies employed by K2 or the managers of the investment entities selected by K2 will be successful. The identification of attractive investment opportunities is difficult and involves a significant degree of uncertainty. Returns generated from Alternative Investments may not adequately compensate investors for the business and financial risks assumed. An investment in Alternative Investments is subject to those market risks common to entities investing in all types of securities, including market volatility. Also, certain trading techniques employed by Alternative Investments, such as leverage and hedging, may increase the adverse impact to which an investment portfolio may be subject. Depending on the structure of the product invested, Alternative Investments may not be required to provide investors with periodic pricing or valuation and there may be a lack of transparency as to the underlying assets. Investing in Alternative Investments may also involve tax consequences and a prospective investor should consult with a tax advisor before investing. In addition to direct asset- based fees and expenses, certain Alternative Investments such as funds of hedge funds incur additional indirect fees, expenses and asset-based compensation of investment funds in which these Alternative Investments invest. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q4 2021 11
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION This This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at October 12, 2021, and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. 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